Earthquake prediction; Principles

Le metodologie di indagine geochimica applicate ad un'ampia porzione dell'Appennino meridionale, esteso dalla Calabria settentrionale ai Monti Nebrodi, nell'ambito del progetto INGV-DPC S2, hanno consentito di valutare le caratteristiche dei fluidi emessi in coincidenza di importanti lineamenti strutturali, permettendo di evidenziare le relazioni intercorrenti tra l'assetto tettonico e la genesi, la circolazione ed il comportamento dei fluidi circolanti. L'area di studio rappresenta la porzione più meridionale dell'Arco Calabro, il cui ...

The large-scale satellite data available for Umbria for the years 2019 to 2024 were analyzed.
The data analyzed for ground motions are related to 2 series: the “European Ground Motion Service” system https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/ for the years 2019 to 2023 (freely accessible) and the IRIDEEOS4LPA Lot 3 IRIDE EOS4LPA Lot3 Service system for the year 2024 accessible through authentication to authorized operators of the Umbria Region from March 2025.
The 13 large areas identified, which recorded ground movements from continuous and uniform satellite data from 2019 to 2024, can be grouped into 4 different causes of movement as follows:
• anthropogenic causes with subsidence due to the extraction of groundwater; areas with a total size of 60 square kilometers, equal to 0.7% of the regional surface area in densely populated and infrastructured areas.
• anthropogenic causes with subsidence due to the construction of infrastructure works; areas with a total size of 10 square kilometers, equal to 0.12% of the regional surface area in densely infrastructured areas.
• natural causes with subsidence due to the consolidation of soft and/or lake and/or marshy soils and/or alteration of slope deposits; areas with a total size of 17 square kilometers, equal to 0.2% of the regional surface area in densely populated and infrastructured areas.
• tectonic causes with subsidence concomitant with or subsequent to seismic sequences; areas with a total size of 283 square kilometers, equal to 3.34% of the regional surface area in areas with many capitals and localities.
If the causes persist, ground movements will continue, producing detectable and incidental effects on both human infrastructures, such as roads and buildings, and natural ones such as waterways and the related underlying catchment basins.
Overall, the regional territory affected by these movements is 4.4% (370 square kilometers) compared to the total surface area of the Umbria Region (8,464 square kilometers).
The increase in the subsidence speed in all the large areas identified, having human and/or natural causes of movement, could have a significant acceleration in conjunction with seismic sequences with earthquakes in epicentral zones close to the large areas and with a magnitude equal to or greater than 5.

L’idea di partenza è quella di considerare il radiante del Tirreno Meridionale come fulcro di una leva di primo genere e come bracci di tale leva: Nuova Zelanda, Papua Nuova Guinea, Indonesia, Giappone, Corea del Nord, Croazia, Albania, Grecia, Tirreno meridionale, Isole Sandwich-Georgia del Sud e Golfo del Messico-Antille.

In questo articolo, descriviamo varie applicazioni della fisica della leva di primo genere, del piano inclinato e della puleggia ad alcuni fenomeni geofisici. Descriveremo anche un possibile modello statistico-matematico per lo studio e la previsione dei terremoti. Otteniamo, infine, nuove possibili connessioni matematiche con la costante DN, i numeri ricorrenti di Ramanujan e alcuni parametri della Teoria dei Numeri e della Teoria delle Stringhe

Skin depth of electromagnetic (EM) wave depends on frequency of EM wave ν and electrical properties of rocks and minerals. Previous studies have theoretically assumed that the skin depth L α (ν) can be expressed as a function of frequency ν by L α (ν) ∝ ν -φ and φ = 1 at high frequency or φ = 1/2 at low frequency. Based on fractal theory of rocks, we point out that the frequency exponent φ reflects internal fractal structures (i.e., occupancy, distribution and connectivity) of dielectric/conductive matrices of rocks such as pores, cracks, grain boundaries, inclusions and various fluids. Laboratory measurements of dielectric constant and conductivity of granite and previous studies on various rocks as a function of frequency show that φ is an exponent ranging from 1/4 to 1. By extrapolation of the skin depth by laboratory measurements at a given frequency into at other frequencies, the skin depth with variation in φ becomes longer or shorter than that by previous studies. Moreover, at a given frequency, the skin depth decreases with increasing a fractal dimension of fracture systems (decreasing φ). Thus, the skin depth of EM wave through the crust for detecting seismo-EM radiations and through rock salt domes for detecting ultra-high energy neutrinos depends on fractal structures of dielectric/conductive matrices in heterogeneous crust.

By a pin-on-disk frictional experiment simulating the motion of an asperity on a fault plane, we observed photon emissions from the gap between the quartz disk and pins made of natural semiconductor or insulator minerals during friction. The patterns and intensities of photon emissions depended significantly on the gas pressure, on the normal stress and on the shape and material of the pins. The frictional contacts made of different grain sets or ore veins can be regarded as natural semiconductor/insulator junctions arising from the difference in electron states or work functions between the contacts. During seismic activities, such semiconductor/insulator junctions in natural fault zones would generate discharge plasmas that could be one of origins of seismo-electromagnetic phenomena. Finally, in addition to its effect on the geoelectromagnetic perturbations, the significances of the discovery of discharge plasmas on geochemical reactions on a fault zone arising from tectonic activities are discussed.

In questo lavoro, in continuo aggiornamento, vengono analizzati numerosi eventi sismici. Si evidenziano le strette connessioni con importanti fasi planetarie e viene avvalorata ulteriormente la proposta della “Leva sismica” di primo genere con “fulcro” situato nel Radiante sismico dell’Italia meridionale nei pressi dell’Etna e dei Campi Flegrei (Ischia)

The present paper deals with reliability of a gradient of atmospheric electric field potential as an indicator of seismic activity increase. With this in view, records of atmospheric electric field potential gradients of Caucasus region for 1953-1992 with respect to periods before average and large earthquakes, which took place in the same time interval, were considered. It is worth to pay attention to the fact that the avalanche-like unstable model of fault formation based on theoretical model of self-generated seismo-electromagnetic oscillations of LAI system explains convincingly spectral succession of electromagnetic emission frequency of the periods preceding earthquakes.

Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural phenomena, causing immense
destruction and loss of life. Despite extensive research and technological
advancements, our understanding of the precise mechanisms behind these events
remains incomplete. This article introduces a new hypothesis from a non-seismologist,
suggesting that under specific geophysical conditions, the formation of underground
plasma could be a critical factor in triggering earthquakes. This plasma might interact
with fault lines and tectonic stresses, leading to seismic activity. Although
unconventional, this hypothesis challenges traditional models and encourages
interdisciplinary research to explore the potential interactions between geophysical
conditions and plasma formation. By investigating this innovative concept, we could
gain new insights into earthquake prediction and mitigation, ultimately improving our
ability to protect lives and infrastructure from these formidable natural disasters

Analyses of ground displacements can help to define the evolution of areas affected by instability phenomena and identify their triggering factors. To this end, Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) satellite data can be used to collect direct measurements of superficial deformations in instability-prone areas. Results from remote sensing analyses can be then compared with outcomes from numerical simulations, and in particular with displacement or velocity fields, to validate numerical modeling and eventually recalibrate the simulation of instabilities, predisposing and triggering conditions. Numerical simulations allow reproducing slope behavior under some hypotheses but their accuracy is strongly connected to the amount of available input data. Most of the required parameters can be set based on reasonable assumptions that consequently can be verified through classical field tools and geological survey or remote sensing techniques. Direct or remote sensing techniques can be used to chara...

Major components of natural environment are soil cover - products and localization place of
«livings» and «nonlivings» [2,6]. Except soil, components of natural environment (NE) are geological
medium, atmosphere air, surface and underground water, flora and fauna. Environmental integrity is to
estimate natural environment state per se, having sum of integral expression of separate components
state «allow» to use it [1,2]. Natural environment is traditionally considered as complex interacting
nature – soil cover, plant and fauna, hydrosphere, atmosphere, geological medium [2,3].
Soil cover is peculiar limitary layer, in which, basically happens interaction «living» and
«nonliving». Other components of biosphere (microorganism of plants, animals) in essence live
because of existence of the such bio-oxide body as soil. Such important significance of soil for normal
functioning of separate ground ecosystem, as well as for existence of biosphere in whole is specified
by their variety ecological function [4,6]. Soil possesses natural original variety, which is universal
indicator of natural environment state. That’s why disturbance of soil under any influence of
(pollution, erosion, agricultural activity and etc.) indicates in ecosystem in whole [5,7].

A seguito del terremoto del 6 aprile sono state eseguite campagne di misure geochimiche con lo scopo di verificare le modificazioni indotte dal terremoto, le relazioni fluidi/strutture tettoniche e l'origine dei fluidi (Italiano et al., 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007a, b, 2008, 2009a, b). Sono stati prelevati campioni di gas da pozzi ubicati in area epicentrale noti nella zona come “soffianti”, sono state eseguite misure di degassamento al suolo nelle aree interessate da fratturazione (indicazioni da Emergeo) e sono stati scaricati i dati di flusso di CO2 da ...

espanolLa presencia de fenomenos electromagneticos inducidos por procesos mecanicos sobre ciertos materiales ha sido ampliamente estudiada desde el descubrimiento de la Piezoelectricidad a finales del siglo XIX. En la actualidad existe una amplia gama de modelos fisicos aun en debate respecto a las observaciones de estos fenomenos en rocas y otros materiales terrestres, ademas de persistir controversia en relacion a sus posibles aplicaciones en Sismologia.En un intento por explicar la presencia de fenomenos electromagneticos asociados a la acumulacion de esfuerzos mecanicos en la corteza terrestre, los cientificos han recurrido a diversos mecanismos, tales como: el Piezomagnetismo y la Piezoelectricidad; el Efecto Magneto hidrodinamico; la Triboelectricidad; el efecto Electrocinetico; Microfracturamiento y el Efecto Semiconductor, debido a la migracion de vacancias positivas en rocas silicatadas a traves de un gradiente de esfuerzo, entre otros.En este texto se pretende exponer brev...

The paper addresses a multidisciplinary approach to the monitoring of sinking phenomena in the city of Tuzla (Bosnia & Herzegovina) as a consequence of the exploitation of a salt deposit located beneath the urban area and related effects. The historical series of data produce by spirit the topographical surveys highlighted a superficial sinking rates greater than 20 cm/year within the last fifty years and allowed the planning of new surveys (i.e. geological. geophysical and geodetic) in order to better understand the ongoing processes. By the managing in a G.I.S. environment of the data collected, the assessment of risk due to the salt withdrawal will be found out. Introduzione La città di Tuzla, situata nel nordest della Bosnia Erzegovina (vedi inquadramento in Figura 1), è conosciuta fin dall’antichità per la presenza di fonti di acqua salata e di depositi di salgemma d’epoca Miocenica formatisi nel sottosuolo in seguito allo sviluppo del bacino Pannonico e successivamente da nuov...

A long distance (200 km) electromagnetic signal occured at Keratea (near Athens), few days prior to the September 13th 1986, Kalamata earthquake. We suggest an explanation based on the fact that long range stress occuring before an earthquake should create locai electrical potential gradients in heterogeneous ground at great distances. This could be a genera1 explanation for the origin of electrical telluric signals appearing before an earthquake.

In the coupled electric interaction of rock fractures and gas invasion, that is, when gases interact with newly created crack surfaces, the unpaired electrons within the rock crystal defects are thermally stimulated, released into the crack due to the temperature rise at the crack tip via plastic work, and attached to ambient gas molecules to electrify them in a negative state. Using a working hypothesis that this mechanism is the source mechanism of seismo-electromagnetic phenomena, we conducted laboratory experiments in which rocks were fractured with pressurized N2, CO2, CH4, and hot water vapour. Fractures were induced by a flat-ended indenter equipped with a flow channel, which was loaded against blocks of quartz diorite, gabbro, basalt, and granite. Fracture-induced negatively electrified gas currents at ~ 25 °C and ~ 160 °C were successfully measured for ~ ≥ 100 μs after full development of the crack. The peak electric currents were as high as 0.05–3 μA, depending on the rock...

Recognition of seismic precursors is exigent task. Its study depends upon the environmental parameters, ground motion emissions (Low frequency signals), geological and tectonic structure. The theory of signal conductivity of two crust model between the epicenter region and above the ground surface calculated the amplitude enhancement of electromagnetic emissions. Extremely low frequency signals generate due to seismic emissions and penetrate the crystal layer to change the earth’s surrounding and upper atmosphere conditions. These outputs are used to correlate the seismogenic VLF signals (f=3 KHz), which are recorded by borehole antenna system. It is observed that the low frequency signals goes to vertically and accumulated as low conductivity medium in the outer most layer through which transmitted to the atmosphere. The seismogenic ULF emissions, DEMETER satellite data, TEC anomalies, ionospheric disturbances and bio-electric amplitude was recorded at places nearby active fault li...

È descritto un prototipo di PMU basato sull'impiego di un microcontrollore digitale sul quale è implementato un algoritmo per la stima dei sincrofasori in reti attive di distribuzione. È anche descritta un'applicazione sperimentale di tale prototipo per il monitoraggio delle manovre di passaggio in isola di carico, e successiva riconnessione, di una rete attiva di distribuzione urbana

The paper addresses a multidisciplinary approach to the monitoring of sinking phenomena in the city of Tuzla (Bosnia & Herzegovina) as a consequence of the exploitation of a salt deposit located beneath the urban area and related effects. The historical series of data produce by spirit the topographical surveys highlighted a superficial sinking rates greater than 20 cm/year within the last fifty years and allowed the planning of new surveys (i.e. geological. geophysical and geodetic) in order to better understand the ongoing processes. By the managing in a G.I.S. environment of the data collected, the assessment of risk due to the salt withdrawal will be found out. Introduzione La città di Tuzla, situata nel nordest della Bosnia Erzegovina (vedi inquadramento in Figura 1), è conosciuta fin dall’antichità per la presenza di fonti di acqua salata e di depositi di salgemma d’epoca Miocenica formatisi nel sottosuolo in seguito allo sviluppo del bacino Pannonico e successivamente da nuov...

The most probable cause of simultaneous anomalous radiations in electromagnetic and acoustic fields, different in nature, is intensification of deformation processes during strong earthquake preparation. To verify this fact, simultaneous observations of electromagnetic signals and acoustic emission in the frequency range from 0.1 Hz to 11 kHz were carried out in Kamchatka. In the result of the experiment, radiation bursts appeared about 24 hours before a seismic event with MLH=5.4. Such bursts were not observed on other days within this time of a day in August-September, 2013.

The results of geoacoustic emission investigations carried out on the seismoactive Kamchatka Peninsula since 1999 are presented. The experiments are characterized by the application of broadband piezoceramic sound receivers (hydrophones) for recording the emission. The hydrophones were installed at the bottom of natural and artificial water reservoirs. As compared with the standard hydrophones, such receivers allow us to broaden the registration frequency range up to 0.1 Hz-11 kHz. Three component vector receivers with the same frequency range were used simultaneously to study the spatial structure of the geo acoustic emission and the mode of the medium particle movement in a wave. In the course of the investiga tions, it was established that anomalies of the geoacoustic emission in the kilohertz frequency range are recorded 1-3 days before strong earthquakes at a distance of a few hundred kilometers from the epicenter. A sharp increase in the amplitude and frequency of the geoacoustic impulses, which resemble microearthquakes in pattern and last from tens of minutes to several hours, is interpreted as an anomaly. Sig nals at such frequencies cannot propagate from the epicenters of preparing earthquakes and represent the response of the medium at the registration point to the change of its stress-strain state. The stress field created therein determines the primary orientation of the emission sources, which can be assessed by vector phase methods. The results of the integrated investigations of the geoacoustic emission and the Earth's surface deformation revealed that anomalies are observed before earthquakes with a considerable increase in the strain rate during both the compression and extension of the near surface rocks.

Riassunto GlobVolcano è un progetto finanziato dall'ESA (European Space Agency) nell'ambito del programma Data User Element (DUE). Il progetto è finalizzato alla realizzazione e dimostrazione di un servizio a scala globale, basato su dati di osservazione della terra (EO Earth Observation), a supporto delle attività degli Osservatori Vulcanologici e/o Enti di Protezione Civile incaricati della sorveglianza in aree vulcaniche attive. Nel corso della prima fase del progetto il sistema informativo è stato progettato, sviluppato e validato. La validazione è stata effettuata per un numero limitato di aree test (Colima in Messico,

Observational studies from rock fractures to earthquakes indicate that fractures and many large earthquakes are preceded by accelerating seismic release rates (accelerated seismic deformation). This is characterized by cumulative Benioff strain that follows a power law time-to-failure relation of the form C(t) = K + A(T f-t) m , where T f is the failure time of the large event, and m is of the order of 0.2-0.4. More recent theoretical studies have been related to the behavior of seismicity prior to large earthquakes, to the excitation in proximity of a spinodal instability. These have show that the power-law activation associated with the spinodal instability is essentially identical to the power-law acceleration of Benioff strain observed prior to earthquakes with m = 0.25-0.3. In the present study, we provide an estimate of the generic local distribution of cracks, following the Wackentrapp-Hergarten-Neugebauer model for mode I propagation and concentration of microcracks in brittle solids due to remote stress. This is a coupled system that combines the equilibrium equation for the stress tensor with an evolution equation for the crack density integral. This inverse type result is obtained through the equilibrium equations for a solid body. We test models for the local distribution of cracks, with estimation of the stress tensor in terms of the crack density integral, through the Nash-Moser iterative method. Here, via the evolution equation, these estimates imply that the crack density integral grows according to a (T f-t) 0.3-law, in agreement with observations.

Observational studies from rock fractures to earthquakes indicate that fractures and many large earthquakes are preceded by accelerating seismic release rates (accelerated seismic deformation). This is characterized by cumulative Benioff strain that follows a power law time-to-failure relation of the form C(t) = K + A(T f-t) m , where T f is the failure time of the large event, and m is of the order of 0.2-0.4. More recent theoretical studies have been related to the behavior of seismicity prior to large earthquakes, to the excitation in proximity of a spinodal instability. These have show that the power-law activation associated with the spinodal instability is essentially identical to the power-law acceleration of Benioff strain observed prior to earthquakes with m = 0.25-0.3. In the present study, we provide an estimate of the generic local distribution of cracks, following the Wackentrapp-Hergarten-Neugebauer model for mode I propagation and concentration of microcracks in brittle solids due to remote stress. This is a coupled system that combines the equilibrium equation for the stress tensor with an evolution equation for the crack density integral. This inverse type result is obtained through the equilibrium equations for a solid body. We test models for the local distribution of cracks, with estimation of the stress tensor in terms of the crack density integral, through the Nash-Moser iterative method. Here, via the evolution equation, these estimates imply that the crack density integral grows according to a (T f-t) 0.3-law, in agreement with observations.

Earthquakes are invariably preceded by a period when stresses increase deep in the Earth. Animals appear to be able to sense impending seismic events. During build-up of stress, electronic charge carriers are activated deep below, called positive holes. Positive holes have unusual properties: they can travel fast and far into and through the surrounding rocks. As they flow, they generate ultralow frequency electromagnetic waves. When they arrive at the Earth surface, they can ionize the air. When they flow into water, they oxidize it to hydrogen peroxides. All these physical and chemical processes can have noticeable effects on animals.

In this study, an equivalent electric circuit model of Earth's upper crust is proposed to explain the behavior of measurement patterns acquired from network of the earthquake forecast project. A multi-layer capacitor model having active components that couples with the monopolar probe close to the surface is used to determine earthquake precursory patterns due to structural changes in time. Equivalent circuit model was developed for a) dilatency process that is assumed to be a stress weakening reason and b) external force source that increases shear stress over the fault until sudden decrement before the earthquake. A data acquisition system consisting of 15 online measurement stations in Marmara region and a data processing center has been established three years ago. Many anomalies which can be distinguished from regular daily behavior of the signal patterns were observed that thought to be associated with the earthquakes with the magnitude greater than 4 and close less than 150 kilometers to the nearest station.

We propose a new test of the critical earthquake model based on the hypothesis that precursory earthquakes are "actors" that create fluctuations in the stress field which exhibit an increasing correlation length as the critical large event becomes imminent. Our approach constitutes an attempt to build a more physically-based cumulative function in the spirit of but improving on the cumulative Benioff strain used in previous works documenting the phenomenon of accelerated seismicity. Using a space and time dependent visco-elastic Green function in a two-layer model of the Earth lithosphere, we compute the spatiotemporal stress fluctuations induced by every earthquake precursor and estimate, through an appropriate wavelet transform, the contribution of each event to the correlation properties of the stress field around the location of the main shock at different scales. Our physically-based definition of the cumulative stress function adding up the contribution of stress loads by all earthquakes preceding a main shock seems to be unable to reproduce an acceleration of the cumulative stress nor an increase of the stress correlation length similar to those observed previously for the cumulative Benioff strain. Either earthquakes are "witnesses" of large scale tectonic organization and/or the triggering Green function requires much more than just visco-elastic stress transfers.

Índice Portada Dedicatoria Introducción 1. Un error de predicción catastrófico 2. ¿Es usted más listo que los expertos de la tele? 3. A mí lo único que me importa son las victorias y las derrotas 4. Durante años nos han dicho que la lluvia era verde 5. Buscando la señal desesperadamente 6. Cómo ahogarse en un metro de agua 7. Modelos de conducta 8. Cada vez menos, menos y menos erróneo 9. Rabia contra las máquinas 10. La burbuja del póquer 11. Si no puedes con ellos... 12. Un clima de sano escepticismo 13. Ojos que no ven, tortazo que te pegas Conclusión Agradecimientos Notas Créditos

In addition to minor surface cracks in the region of the 8 July 1986 North Palm Springs earthquake, minor aseismic surficial rupture occurred along three segments of the San Andreas fault, 44 to 86 km southeast of the epicenter. Data from a creepmeter and a tiltmeter at one locality suggest that triggered slip occurred coseismically beneath the instruments but took 33 hr to propagate to the surface. That slippage occurred coseismically at depth favors mechanisms for triggered slip that involve dynamic or static strain changes rather than creep migrating from the source region. The distribution of slip along the San Andreas fault associated with the North Palm Springs earthquake differed significantly from that recorded after the moderate 1968 Borrego Mountain, California and 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquakes. During these earthquakes, triggered slip occurred along the San Andreas fault in the Durmid Hill area and in the Mecca Hills. Triggered slip associated with the Nor...

Automatic observation systems for unusual animal behavior, which has been told as an earthquake precursor in folklores and retrospectively reported by citizens, have been constructed using infrared sensors and a CCD camera. The systems to quantify the activities of genetically controlled mice and aquatic catfish famous in folklores were developed using a digitalization algorithm to study the influence of ~e electromagnetic waves on their daily biological rhythms. Data acquisition for different animals and different individuals at multi-sites was made and the data was transferred through the Internet. Environmental electromagnetic noises can simultaneously be monitored using antennas to bind the correlation with animal behavior and to find seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS) before earthquakes.

Five geoelectric potential difference (electric field, here after) monitoring stations have been in operation since September 1997 in an area near Liwa town, southern Sumatra, Indonesia, to examine the relationship between electric field changes and earthquakes. Short-term electric field variations were found to correspond mainly to geomagnetic activity, while long-term variation was mostly gradual shift and was clearly correlated neither precipitation nor ground water level variations. Co-seismic electric field changes ranging between 1 and 8 mV were observed for five mb > 5 earthquakes at multiple stations during September ∼ December 1997. The epicenters of the earthquakes were in the Indian Ocean within about 170 km from the monitoring sites.

The coseismic electromagnetic signals observed during the 2004 M w 6 Parkfield earthquake are simulated using electrokinetic theory. By using a finite fault source model obtained via kinematic inversion, we calculate the electric and magnetic responses to the earthquake rupture. The result shows that the synthetic electric signals agree with the observed data for both amplitude and wave shape, especially for early portions of the records (first 9 s) after the earthquake, supporting the electrokinetic effect as the reasonable mechanism for the generation of the coseismic electric fields. More work is needed to explain the magnetic fields and the later portions of the electric fields. Analysis shows that the coseismic electromagnetic (EM) signals are sensitive to both the material properties at the location of the EM sensors and the electrochemical heterogeneity in the vicinity of the EM sensors and can be used to characterize the underground electrochemical properties. GAO ET AL.

La Camera Spaziale Climatica (CSC) in allestimento ai LNF è un progetto integrato con applicazioni di fisica fondamentale e di ricaduta e trasferimento tecnologico per usi civili ed industriali . Nella CSC, infatti, si intendono studiare sperimentalmente le caratteristiche ottiche e termiche delle componenti dei satelliti LAGEOS I e II (già operativi) e la loro evoluzione LARES (in via di realizzazione ai LNF). Lo scopo è quello di migliorare l'accuratezza della misura del trascinamento dei sistemi inerziali in Relatività Generale (effetto Lense-Thirring [1] [2]) e delle applicazioni di Geodesia. Gli elementi orbitali vengono determinati con inseguimento via laser da Terra dei satelliti (Satellite Laser Ranging, SLR). L'applicazione tecnologica più importante è il contributo fondamentale alla definizione del sistema internazionale di riferimento di posizione terrestre (ITRF, Intern. Terrestrial Reference Frame), emesso dallo IERS (Intern. Earth Reference Service), lo standar...

ABSTARCT The study of resistivity relaxation before the impending earthquake events occurred during January-February 2005 in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone have proven the existence of the long range effects of strain related precursors, fortuitously recorded by the Variometer designed to reflect the premonitory rupture in Kottayam, Kerala, India at epicentral distances greater than 2000km. The swarms of the aftershock of Great earthquake of 2004 supplied sources of seismic waves that have been subsequently scattered, polarized and lead to the process of birefringence through the anisotropic rocks. The average values of earthquake magnitudes (M5.3), epicentral distances (1941km), radius of preparation zones (281km) and focal depths (23km) are calculated from the regression equations evolved from the bivariate plots. The abnormal increase of crustal strain even for a lower earthquake of M5.3 which has definitive radius of the preparation zone of 240km to an ultimate radius of mo...

Transient electromagnetic variations, observed at t he surface of the Earth are direct signatures of MHD waves and electric currents in the ionized envi ronment of the planet. At the same time, the temporal variation of the surface geomagnetic field nduces currents in the conductive subsurface. The secondary magnetic field related to the induced currents is superimposed on the external origin field variations. The analysis of the temporal and spatial character of the natural electromagnetic field variations at the surface of the Earth theref or provide a unique tool for investigating and understanding physical phenomena arise in the ionosph ere and magnetosphere, Pilipenko and Fedorov (1993), as well as for probing the structure of the Earth interior, Vellante (1997). In the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory at Nagycenk, a parallel monitoring and registration of geomagnetic and telluric variations has been carried out for more than fifty years. The unique long continuous time...

The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately one day and for the maximum- two days. The statistic evidence for reliability is based on of distributions of the time difference between

The paper aims at giving a few methodological suggestions in deterministic earthquake prediction studies based on combined ground-based and space observations of earthquake precursors. Up to now what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. Coordinated space and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of LEO satellites. At this purpose a new result reported in the paper is an original and specific space mission project (ESPERIA) and two instruments of its payload. The ESPERIA space project has been performed for the Italian Space Agency and three ESPERIA instruments (ARINA and LAZIO particle detectors, and EGLE search-coil magnetometer) have been built and tested in space. The EGLE experiment started last April 15, 2005 on board the ISS, within the ENEIDE mission. The launch of ARINA occurred on June 15, 2006, on board the RESURS DK-1 Russian LEO satellite. As an introduction and justification to these experiments the paper clarifies some basic concepts and critical methodological aspects concerning deterministic and statistic approaches and their use in earthquake prediction. We also take the liberty of giving the scientific community a few critical hints based on our personal experience in the field and propose a joint study devoted to earthquake prediction and warning.