Climate history

Narrative evidence contained within historical documents and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however, considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) CRIAS working group – a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world’s oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy climate reconstructions.

The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries ; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socioeconomic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

The expected upward shift of trees due to climate warming is supposed to be a major threat to range-restricted high-altitude species by shrinking the area of their suitable habitats. Our projections show that areas of endemism of five taxonomic groups (vascular plants, snails, spiders, butterflies, and beetles) in the Austrian Alps will, on average, experience a 77% habitat loss even under the weakest climate change scenario (+1.8 °C by 2100). The amount of habitat loss is positively related with the pooled endemic species richness (species from all five taxonomic groups) and with the richness of endemic vascular plants, snails, and beetles. Owing to limited postglacial migration, hotspots of high-altitude endemics are situated in rather low peripheral mountain chains of the Alps, which have not been glaciated during the Pleistocene. There, tree line expansion disproportionally reduces habitats of high-altitude species. Such legacies of climate history, which may aggravate extinction risks under future climate change have to be expected for many temperate mountain ranges.

This article evaluates 165 studies from various disciplines, published between 2000 and 2019, which in different ways link past climate variability and change to human history in medieval and early modern Europe (here, c. 700-1815 CE). Within this review, we focus on the identification and interpretation of causal links between changes in climate and in human societies. A revised climate-society impact order model of historical climate-society interactions is presented and applied to structure the findings of the past 20 years' scholarship. Despite considerable progress in research about past climate-society relations, partly expedited by new palaeoclimate data, we identify limitations to knowledge, including geographical biases, a disproportional attention to extremely cold periods, and a focus on crises. Furthermore, recent scholarship shows that the limitations with particular disciplinary approaches can be successfully overcome through interdisciplinary collaborations. We conclude the article by proposing recommendations for future directions of research in the climatic change-human history nexus.

This article assesses the development and current state of climate history research conducted in the five Nordic countries and Estonia. The possible societal impacts of past climatic changes already interested a handful of Nordic historians in the early twentieth century, but the lack of data on past climate fluctuations constrained scholarship in this field until recently. The data availability has increased fundamentally over the past decades due to the advances of palaeoclimatology. However, these advances have created new challenges, related to the ability to utilize data from the natural sciences in historical research as well as acquiring a basic knowledge on climatology. In many European countries, climate history has established itself as a strong academic subfield and consequently has created approaches as to how to overcome some main pitfalls, like climate determinism, related to the early works in the field. These epistemological advances are just beginning to gain a foothold in Nordic historical research. Thus, the article concludes with ten recommendations to improve future research in Nordic climate history.

This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (“palaeoenvironmental sciences”), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.

This review article focuses on scholarship that lies at the intersection of histories of climate and British settler colonization in Australia and New Zealand. It first discusses the role of climate in their colonial histories and then developments in the field of climate history, examining similarities and differences within and between Australia and New Zealand. Next, it outlines two significant recent themes in climate history in both places: contested climate debates and perceptions , and social impacts and responses to climate. The article finishes by recommending future areas for research. Throughout, we stress the importance of local-level approaches to climate as a means of understanding past and present, popular and scientific, interpretations of climate. We also emphasize the role that imperatives of colonization have played in shaping particular kinds of climate knowledge, including in overwriting non-elite views of climate.

Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the effects in Scotland of a severely cold climate episode in the 1690s, associated with major tropical volcanic events including a large unidentified tropical eruption in 1695. A tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction from the northern Cairngorms region identifies the 1690s as the coldest decade in Scotland for the last 750 years. Archival sources meanwhile reveal the 1690s as likely the worst era of crop failure, food shortage, and mortality ever documented in Scottish history. The connection appears simple-volcanic cooling triggered famine-but the drivers towards famine are far more complex. Although the unusual coldness of the 1690s was near-hemispheric in scale, it had a differential impact across northwestern Europe. Within Scotland, both lowlands and highlands experienced dire conditions, but distinct factors exacerbated the suffering in each region. We integrate historical and palaeoclimatic records to explore the influence of the volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and its consequences in Scotland. We find that while cooling temperatures characterized the regional to larger-scale climate, vulnerability and response potential were diverse and shaped by local circumstances. The Scottish crisis of the 1690s, in the context of the kingdom's failing economy, influenced investors from all parts of society, including the nobility and entire communities, to fund the ill-fated expedition to colonize Darien in modern-day Panama. The climate crisis and the colony's collapse hindered Scotland's already sluggish economy, motivating unification with England soon after.

Recent policy debates on climate change have started highlighting the importance of adaptation of societies to new conditions projected by climate scientists. Previously, mitigation had been almost the sole focus of policy-makers for fear of creating a moral hazard when concentrating more strongly on adaptation. Yet, with many of the climatic changes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected occurring faster than scientists predicted, adaptation has re-entered the debate as an imperative. In this context, in which adaptation—a process often unfolding on deep timescales—becomes prescriptive, it is crucial to look at the historical development of adaptive practices over the long term in order to appreciate the complexity of their evolution. This paper is a hybrid between a summary of a research project and a review of the most crucial literature on which it was based. The point of departure of this study was Hurricane Katrina, which, after it had flooded New Orleans on August 29, 2005, raised the question, how such a disaster could have happened in one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world. I then rewind to the foundation of the city in 1718 and work my way along case studies through three centuries of hurricane history in New Orleans. The red thread is the concept of adaptation. I review the definition of adaptation provided by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC from a historian's point of view and suggest a slight change of perspective. Knowledge as a precondition for adaptation, contingency, path-dependence, political vulnerability, and the interplay of cultural, legal, and political factors emerge as crucial characteristics in the historical evolution of adaptive practices throughout the almost 300-year period of study.

The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.

Understanding the historical dynamics of wildlife distribution and abundance is essential to developing appropriate conservation measures. Here we investigate the occurrence and status of medium-to large-sized fauna (excluding avifauna) for the mountain Kingdom of Lesotho and immediate adjoining regions of South Africa, from the late Pleistocene to the present-day. We provide historical timelines and records of reported medium to large faunal taxa based on: data from eight published archaeological excavations, analyses of several hundred unpublished 19th and 20th century historical documents (including missionary letters, diaries, colonial reports and newspapers), and 58 recent oral history interviews. Vegetation and climate changes through the Holocene are also noted, based on archaeo-botanical records. Through these sources, we record 61 medium to large faunal species for Lesotho and surrounding regions over the past~21 ka, of which only 22 are present today. Some species not previously known to the region are documented (e.g. Temminck's pangolin). Most species were present during the early 19th century, but many regional species extinctions and a major faunal population decline occurred between 1845 and 1850, owing mainly to settler hunting campaigns. Subsequent extinctions have taken place over a wider temporal interval, due to factors including overhunting, human-wildlife conflicts and habitat loss. It seems that some taxa were forced into unsuitable mountain refugia where species eventually succumbed to genetic erosion and/or harsh climatic conditions. Our results increase current understanding of regional faunal and environmental changes, such as the timing of species occurrences and extinction events and processes in Lesotho. Such work adds valuable knowledge to understanding the environmental heritage of the region. Information can be disseminated into wildlife records, national environmental reports, the WWF, the national school environmental educational curriculum and to National Parks and Heritage Sites.

The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities.

In the early exploration and colonization of the Americas, Europeans encountered unfamiliar climates that challenged received ideas from classical geography. This experience drove innovative efforts to understand and explain patterns of weather and seasons in the New World. A close examination of three climatic puzzles (the habitability of the tropics, debates on the likelihood of a Northwest Passage, and the unexpectedly harsh weather in the first North American colonies) illustrates how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century observers made three intellectual breakthroughs: conceiving of climates as a distinct subject of inquiry, crossing the hitherto-separated disciplines of geography and meteorology, and developing new theories regarding the influence of prevailing winds on patterns of weather and seasons. While unquantified and unsystematic, these novel approaches promoted a new understanding of climates critical to the emergence of climate science. This study offers new insights into the foundations of climatology and the role of the New World in early modern science.

Pollen, charcoal, and plant macrofossil analyses reveal five postglacial vegetation periods at Crater Lake, Crater Mountain, British Columbia. The first period, beginning ca. 11 400 14 C yr BP was characterized by Artemisia steppetundra. At 9700 14 C yr BP, Pinus parkland developed, and by 6700 14 C yr BP was replaced by fire-successional Pinusdominated Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir forest (ESSF). At 3800 14 C yr BP, Picea became a more important element of the forest, and modern forest structure and composition developed by 1600 14 C yr BP. Comparison of the fossil vegetation and fossil midge data derived from several ESSF sites in the southern interior reveals (1) similar late-Pleistocene vegetation and climate at all sites, (2) three distinct Holocene climatic stages: warm/dry, warm/moist, and cool/moist, (3) confirmation of the warm/moist period as a distinct climatic period, and (4) distinct differences in Holocene vegetation change among the sites. The driest and warmest site was most sensitive to climatic change, whereas cooler, moister sites were less sensitive. The present east^west climate gradient originated with postglacial warming at the beginning of the Holocene. Vegetation response to climate change and natural disturbance in these sites is strongly controlled by local site characteristics. These characteristics may have implications for forest, environment, and resource management.

The abundance, accessibility and value of limpets as a source of food and bait for coastal peoples have resulted in their high frequency in shell middens worldwide. The limpet Patella vulgata is found in middens from the Mediterranean to Norway, and morphometric and sclerochronological analyses of its shell can provide insight into harvesting patterns and paleoenvironmental variables valuable in reconstructing climate. Previous work with P. vulgata has relied on lines on the exterior of the shell, or on lines exiting on the shell surface in shell cross-section, as annual or sub-annual markers. Shell damage may compromise these lines and limit the use of some shells, but growth lines are also found in the better-preserved shell apex. We investigated whether the growth lines in the apex of P. vulgata from two locations in Northern Europe are annual using calcein-marking and recapture. Investigations were performed at one site in the Shetland Islands (UK) and at one site at the northern limit of P. vulgata's range in Northern Norway. We also used laser ablation to measure the concentration of minerals in the shells of two individuals from Shetland to determine if patterns of minerals suggested as bioproxies for temperature and productivity varied annually. All individuals deposited one growth line in the apex during their year in the field, and the lowest ratios of Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca and to a lesser extent Mg/Ca were coincident with annual lines on the shells from Shetland. Growth at both sites was modelled using the von Bertalanffy growth function, and apex growth was nearly five times faster in Shetland than in Norway, probably a result of differences in temperature between the two locations.

Historians readily discuss the effect of climate change on the 21st century, but Ottomanists rarely reference palaeoclimatology data. This research compares palaeoclimatological data with documentary evidence from institutionalized rice plantations in the Ottoman Empire. Between the 15th and 19th centuries, the empire employed a group of experts for the cultivation of rice in the vast region between the Tigris and the Danube. Extensive registers exist from this period in archives that give documentary evidence about the organization of plantations, yields, prices and destructive floods. The objective of the study, as presented in this article, is to find rice-related phenological data in Ottoman Archive registers. It utilizes a comparative analysis of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) summer precipitation data reconstructed by Cook et al. (2015), temperature changes, documentary evidence about seasonal extremes and archival evidence. The comparison shows that palaeoclimatology prox...

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

A 7m sediment core from the Bayan Tohomiin Nuur dry lake located in southern Mongolia was investigated by a multidisciplinary study to reconstruct the history of climate and paleoenvironmental conditions during the late Quaternary. The geochemical, granulometric, palynological and ostracod results show a graduation of at least nine climatic units during the last 15 ka cal. BP. The climate during the late Glacial changed from wet towards more dry conditions, representing the beginning of the Younger Dryas period. At 11 ka cal. BP a rise in temperature and precipitation could be reconstructed, marking the onset of the Holocene. The humid period of the Holocene lasted until about 4 ka cal. BP, interrupted by shorter dry/cold reversals at 8.5–7.5 ka cal. BP and 5–4.5 ka cal. BP. The aridity in southern Mongolia increased afterwards accompanied by the strengthening of aeolian processes, dune remobilization and lake desiccation

Understanding the context from which evidence emerges is of paramount importance in reaching robust conclusions in scientific inquiries. This is as true of the present as it is of the past. In a trans-disciplinary study a proper analysis of context demands the use of historical evidence. This includes demographic, epidemiological, and socioeconomic data—common in many studies of the impact of anthropogenic pollution on human health—and, as in this specific case, also geoarchaeological evidence. These records anchor climate and pollution data in the geographic and human circumstances of history, without which we lose a fundamental understanding of the data itself.

Understanding of long-term climatic change prior to instrumental records necessitates reconstructions from documentary and palaeoclimate archives. In southern Africa, documentaryderived chronologies of nineteenth century rainfall variability and palaeoclimate records have permitted new insights into rainfall variability over past centuries. Rarely considered, however, is the climatic information within early colonial documentary records that emerge from the late fifteenth century onwards. This paper examines evidence for (multi-)seasonal dry and wet events within these earlier written records (c. 1550-1830 CE) from southeast Africa (Mozambique) and west-central Africa (Angola) in conjunction with palaeoclimate records from multiple proxies. Specifically, it aims to understand whether these sources agree in their signals of rainfall variability over a 280-year period covering the 'main phase' Little Ice Age (LIA) in southern Africa. The two source types generally, but do not always, show agreement within the two regions. This appears to reflect both the nature of rainfall variability and the context behind documentary recording. Both source types indicate that southeast and west-central Africa were distinct regions of rainfall variability over seasonal and longer timescales during the LIA, with southeast Africa being generally drier and west-central Africa generally wetter. However, the documentary records reveal considerable variability within these mean state climatic conditions, with multi-year droughts a recurrent feature in both regions. An analysis of long-term rainfall links with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in southeast Africa suggests a complex and possibly non-stationary relationship. Overall, early colonial records provide valuable information for constraining hydroclimate variability where palaeoclimate records remain sparse.

During the second half of the 1890s, southeastern Africa was hit by a drought-driven ecological crisis. Using records previously unexploited for climate and climate impact research, and which cover the area from modern-day Zimbabwe and Botswana to eastern South Africa, this study explores the complexity of this crisis through an analysis of the spatial extent, duration and severity of the regional drought and its associated socioeconomic and environmental repercussions. This interdisciplinary study stands at the nexus of environmental, economic and social history. The records used include (a) British administrative sources, (b) reports and letters by members of various Protestant missionary societies from diverse environments across the study area, together with (c) local newspapers. Analysis of these materials reveals that generally the period was marked by a sequence of considerably delayed rainy seasons, which in turn negatively impacted upon the rain-fed agriculture. Below-average levels of summer rainfall also adversely affected the development of young crops. The drought was more severe and continuous in the interior of the region than towards the Indian Ocean coast. The prolonged dry conditions were accompanied by, and likely exacerbated, locust outbreaks and the spread of cattle plague (Rinderpest). We demonstrate in this paper that drought, as the original driver of the crisis, triggered a cascade of responses from harvest failure to famine and ultimately led to profound socioeconomic change.

High resolution palynological and geochemical data of sediment core GeoB 3910-2 (located offshore Northeast Brazil) spanning the period between 19 600 and 14 500 calibrated year bp (19.6–14.5 ka) show a land-cover change in the catchment area of local rivers in two steps related to changes in precipitation associated with Heinrich Event 1 (H1 stadial). At the end of the last glacial maximum, the landscape in semi-arid Northeast Brazil was dominated by a very dry type of caatinga vegetation, mainly composed of grasslands with some herbs and shrubs. After 18 ka, considerably more humid conditions are suggested by changes in the vegetation and by Corg and C/N data indicative of fluvial erosion. The caatinga became wetter and along lakes and rivers, sedges and gallery forest expanded. The most humid period was recorded between 16.5 and 15 ka, when humid gallery (and floodplain) forest and even small patches of mountainous Atlantic rain forest occurred together with dry forest, the latter being considered as a rather lush type of caatinga vegetation. During this humid phase erosion decreased as less lithogenic material and more organic terrestrial material were deposited on the continental slope of northern Brazil. After 15 ka arid conditions returned. During the humid second phase of the H1 stadial, a rich variety of landscapes existed in Northeast Brazil and during the drier periods small pockets of forest could probably survive in favorable spots, which would have increased the resilience of the forest to climate change.

Review Essay in Victorian Literature and Culture (2017) of books and articles, including among others: The Sky of Our Manufacture, by Jesse Oak Taylor; Green Victorians, by Vicky Albritton and Fredrik Albritton Jonsson; and Chaos and Cosmos, by Heidi C. M. Scott.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560–1580 (western and central Europe), 1760–1800 (most of Europe), 1840–1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990– 2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

The seventh-century AD switch from gold to silver currencies transformed the socio- economic landscape of North-west Europe. The source of silver, however, has proven elusive. Recent research, integrating ice-core data from the Colle Gnifetti drill site in the Swiss Alps, geoarchaeological records and numismatic and historical data, has provided new evidence for this transformation. Annual ice-core resolution data are combined with lead pollution analysis to demonstrate that significant new silver min- ing facilitated the change to silver coinage, and dates the introduction of such coinage to c. AD 660. Archaeological evidence and atmospheric modelling of lead pollution locates the probable source of the silver to mines at Melle, in France.

Yellowstone National Park has been an important location for paleoecologic studies that focus on the use of charcoal data to reconstruct past fire activity and on the role of climate variations in shaping past vegetation and fire regimes. One hypothesis, which has been explored in other parts of the western U.S., is the idea that present-day summer-dry and summer-wet precipitation regimes were intensified during the early Holocene as a result of greater-than-present summer insolation and its effect on atmospheric circulation patterns. In Yellowstone, this hypothesis was previously examined at two sites, one in summer-wet and one in summerdry precipitation regions. The records showed variation in both fire and vegetation history that supported the hypothesis. We present a fire and vegetation history from Blacktail Pond, located in Pseudotsuga parkland in the transitional region. The Blacktail Pond data indicate the following ecological history: prior to 12,000 cal yr BP, the site supported tundra vegetation and fire episodes were infrequent. Between 12,000 and 11,000 cal yr BP, Picea-Pinus parkland was established and fire activity increased; these changes are consistent with increasing temperature, as a result of rising summer insolation. From 11,000 to 7600 cal yr BP, the presence of a closed forest of Pinus and some Picea is attributed to high levels of winter moisture, but high fire activity indicates that summers were drier than at present. After 7600 cal yr BP, the presence of forest and steppe vegetation in combination with high fire activity suggest that middle-Holocene conditions were warm and dry. The decrease in Picea and Betula in the last 4000 cal yr indicates continued drying in the late Holocene, although fire-episode frequency was relatively high until 2000 cal yr BP. The pollen data at Blacktail Pond and other low-elevation sites in the northern Rocky Mountains suggest a widespread vegetation response in summer-wet regions to effectively wetter conditions in the early Holocene and decreased moisture in the middle and late Holocene. In contrast, the more-variable fire history among the three sites implies either that (1) summer moisture stress and fire conditions are related to year-round moisture balance and not well predicted by the hypothesis, (2) the transitional area between summer-wet and summer-dry precipitation regimes experienced complicated shifts in effective moisture through time, and/or (3) fire-episode data have a limited source area that makes it difficult to separate local influences from regional climate changes in understanding long-term variations in fire-episode frequency.

The expanding literature on climate change and water resources in South Asia includes a small number of works that stress the role of human wisdom-past, present, and future. Some studies draw attention to the "dying wisdom" of traditional water systems, whereas others seek wiser conceptual models for addressing climate change and water stresses. This article examines the historical geography of hydroclimatic adjustment in early Mughal India, with an emphasis on state formation in chronicles of the late sixteenth century. Notwithstanding claims of wisdom then, as now, water and climatic hazards had limited episodic salience in Mughal chronicles. Even so, Mughal sources identify indirect forms of human adjustment, ranging from land revenue policies to infrastructure investment, administrative reform, human mobility, and landscape interpretation that bear comparison with current deliberations.

Pollen and high-resolution charcoal records from three lakes were examined to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Oregon Coast Range for the last 9000 years. The sites are located along a north-to-south effective precipitation gradient and changes in vegetation and fire activity provided information on the nature of this gradient in the past. The relation of vegetation to climate change was examined at millennial timescales and the relation between fire and climate was examined on centennial timescales by comparing fire-interval distribution and fire synchrony between sites. The pollen data indicate more fire-adapted vegetation during the early-Holocene period ( c. 9000 to 6700 cal. yr BP), followed by a shift to forests with more fire-sensitive taxa in the mid Holocene ( c. 6700 cal. yr BP to 2700 cal. yr BP) and modern forest assemblages developing over the last c. 2700 years. Comparisons of fire-interval distributions showed that the time between fires was similar ...

South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies con-comitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/ severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. drought atlas | palaeoclimate reconstruction | extreme hydroclimate events | South America hydroclimate | Southern Hemisphere climate modes P roductive economic and social activities in South America (SA) are heavily dependent on hydroclimate variability. Severe water shortages have occurred in central Chile and western Argentina during the drought years

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Single-to multiple-year drought episodes posed significant challenges for agrarian communities across southern Africa during the nineteenth century and hence are widely recorded in a variety of historical documents. However, the ways in which droughts are articulated, and the focus of individual accounts, vary considerably between different authors and historical source types. This study draws on a range of documentary source types-specifically newspapers, letters, reports and diaries-to explore the varied narratives associated with three protracted droughts (those of 1861-1863, 1876-1879 and 1895-1897) that affected large areas of the subcontinent. The analysis spans four case study areas-present day KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), Lesotho, Malawi and the southern Kalahari (Botswana and South Africa)-which were investigated as part of different interdisciplinary projects. We explore issues common to all case study areas, including (i) how specific drought events are framed and (ii) what is and is not reported about individual droughts across different source types. We conclude that different source types in the subcontinent may be more or less appropriate for addressing the specific objectives of historical climatology, particularly in relation to historical drought. Sources such as newspapers and weather diaries are rich in qualitative and quantitative observations suitable for the reconstruction of temporal and spatial patterns of weather and climate, as well as climate-related natural disasters. In contrast, letters, reports and personal journals, especially those written by missionaries, provide additional qualitative narratives through which to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to climate variations, and to explore past discourses and social representations of climate. While studies of this kind have been published for European and American source types, this is the first systematic exploration of documentary sources for the historical climatology of Africa. It should therefore provide a guide for climate history studies elsewhere in the continent, or other regions where written records are absent prior to the arrival of European colonists.

Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836-38, 1861-63, 1865-66, 1868-70, 1876-79, 1883-85, 1886-90 and 1895-1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847-49, 1854-57, 1863-65, 1879-81, 1890-91 and 1892-94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our results indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in southeast Africa was relatively stable, at least for the latter half of the 19th century. El Niño conditions appear to have had a more consistent modulating effect upon rainfall during the 19th century than La Niña. The rainfall chronology from this study is combined with other annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from mainland southern Africa and surrounding oceans as part of a multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction for the SRZ. This reconstruction confirms (i) the long-term importance of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs for modulating regional rainfall; and (ii) that summer precipitation has been declining progressively over the last 200 years.

From its formation in the early years of the thirteenth century, the Mongol Empire expanded rapidly along the steppe belt and trade routes comprising the Silk Road, forming partnerships with merchants and encouraging commerce, while also subjugating the resident nomadic and sedentary societies. In 1241–1242, the Mongols invaded and occupied Hungary for a year before mysteriously withdrawing eastward into the steppes. Many theories have been offered for this event and why Hungary’s border ended up marking the westernmost terminus of the Mongol Empire, including most recently Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s “environmental hypothesis” that short-term climatic fluctuation and environmental factors played a decisive role. This paper employs a comparative historical methodology to discuss three broad topics: the suitability of the Kingdom of Hungary for long-term occupation by the Mongols; the role that the climatic events of 1242 played in the famine that ravaged the kingdom after the withdrawal; and the role that environmental factors could have played in Mongol military setbacks and problems during the invasion. By doing so, this paper also aims to address additional points newly raised by Büntgen and Di Cosmo in a reply they made to an earlier article which questioned the environmental hypothesis.

The Eldgjá lava flood is considered Iceland's largest volcanic eruption of the Common Era. While it is well established that it occurred after the Settlement of Iceland (circa 874 CE), the date of this great event has remained uncertain. This has hampered investigation of the eruption's impacts, if any, on climate and society. Here, we use high-temporal resolution glaciochemical records from Greenland to show that the eruption began in spring 939 CE and continued, at least episodically, until at least autumn 940 CE. Contemporary chronicles identify the spread of a remarkable haze in 939 CE, and tree ring-based reconstructions reveal pronounced northern hemisphere summer cooling in 940 CE, consistent with the eruption's high yield of sulphur to the atmosphere.

Establishing long-term records of rainfall variability is essential for understanding changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events. The need is particularly pressing for much of Africa, where the instrumental meteorological record rarely stretches back beyond the early 20th century. This study extends the rainfall record for present-day Malawi back to the mid-19th century through the analysis of historical documentary materials from British and African archives.

Western peninsular India is subject to regular climate-related natural disasters, being highly sensitive to periodic droughts and flooding. This chapter draws on new reconstructions of monsoon rainfall intensity for the nineteenth century to explore social responses to drought in western India between 1782 and 1857. The analysis reveals a heavy mortality amongst pastoralist and peasant-farming communities, although this apparently diminished towards the middle of the nineteenth century. Measures adopted by vulnerable individuals to buffer against drought included crop rotation, rogation and recourse to loans from local moneylenders, with migration into urban areas and consumption of ‘famine crops’ reported during exceptionally strong droughts. Wealthy merchants and rulers apparently played a role in providing charitable support. However, traditional support structures were challenged with a move from indigenous to colonial governance in 1817, and the introduction of market-driven, laissez faire drought policy.

Investigations of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on climate, environment, and society require accurate chronologies. However, eruptions that are not recorded in historical documents can seldom be dated exactly. Here we use annually resolved radiocarbon ( 14 C) measurements to isolate the 775 CE cosmogenic 14 C peak in a subfossil birch tree that was buried by a glacial outburst ood in southern Iceland. We employ this absolute time marker to date a subglacial eruption of Katla volcano at late 822 CE to early 823 CE. We argue for correlation between the 822-823 CE eruption and a conspicuous sulfur anomaly evident in Greenland ice cores, which follows in the wake of an even larger volcanic signal (ca. 818-820 CE) as yet not attributed to a known eruption. An abrupt summer cooling in 824 CE, evident in tree-ring reconstructions for Fennoscandia and the Northern Hemisphere, suggests a climatic response to the Katla eruption. Written historical sources from Europe and China corroborate our proposed tree ring-radiocarbon-ice core linkage but also point to combined effects of eruptions occurring during this period. Our study describes the oldest precisely dated, high-latitude eruption and reveals the impact of an extended phase of volcanic forcing in the early 9 th century. It also provides insight into the existence of prehistoric woodland cover and the nature of volcanism several decades before Iceland's permanent settlement began.

The droughts that withered crops, killed cattle, and forced many farmers out of business in North Otago, New Zealand, in 1889–91, 1906–7, and 1909–11 underline the existence of contested interpretations of natural causation in
that region. Examining settler rainmaking and prayers-for-rain complicates historical interpretations about religion and  nationalism, secularism and science, and colonization and climate. This chapter argues for the need for historians
to bring research on religious and scientific interpretations of natural causation beyond the European early modern period and into settler societies
of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.  It also sheds light on the fascinating process by which climate was imbricated in settler religious and scientific debates, and specifically how meteorologists used criticism of rainmaking experiments to strengthen claims of professional legitimacy.

this study investigates whether raised beach sequences preserved on emergent coasts of the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago contain a proxy record of past sea-ice conditions and wave intensity. We hypothesize that periods of reduced sea ice (increased open water) expose shorelines to more prolonged and higher wave energy, leading to better-developed beach ridges. Surveys of raised beach sequences on Lowther Island revealed the following patterns: a) high, wide, single-to multicrested barriers backed by deep swales or lagoons characterize both the active and lowest relict shorelines; b) small, narrow, discontinuous ridges of poorly sorted gravel extend from 1.0 to 7.5 m asl, except from 4.5 to 5.0 m asl; c) ridge morphology is similar to the active and first relict ridges between 7.5 and 11 m asl; d) a near-featureless zone with minor terraces and ridges above 11 m extends to above 30 m asl. these distinct morphological and sedimentary units are interpreted as a function of wave climate and thus of summer sea-ice conditions. this model suggests periods

We discuss results from a high-sensitivity, multichannel, very high frequency, and surface-based radar depth sounder/imager. The instrument was used to map deep internal layers and characterize basal conditions over a 240-km 2 grid in the vicinity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core site. The ice thickness at the core site was found to be about 3470 m, and we detected internal layers to within 350 m of the ice/bed interface. Radar-detected layer stratigraphy does not show evidence of flow-induced disturbances that might complicate the depth-age relationship and the interpretation of climate history preserved in the ice. We also found that bed reflectivity over the region varies by more than 30 dB. Approximately 15 dB of this variability appears to be the result of transitions from a frozen to a thawed bed in a number of places. The remainder probably results from changes in bed roughness. Our data are important for planning drilling to the bed, as well as providing constraints and boundary conditions for regional ice-flow models.

In 1871 a shadow came across the page of that "cloud-worshipper," John Ruskin (6:75). After praising meteorology, in his youth, as a "science of the pure air, and of the bright heaven" (1:208), and extolling "cloud beauty" throughout Modern Painters (7:133-99), Ruskin confronted in the "black heavens" of industrial pollution a threat to his familiar models for moral, aesthetic, and political instruction (27:204). 1 In Fors Clavigera (1871-1884), The Art of England (1883), and The Storm-Cloud of the Nineteenth Century (1884), he launched a sustained attack on a society destroying its atmospheric and moral bearings in the service of political economy.

Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long-term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long-term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives K E Y W O R D S climate and society, conflict, historical datasets, long-term, plague 1 | NEW OPPORTUNITIES Concerns over the implications of global climate change have given new impetus to the need to understand the effects of climatic changes on society over the long term (Adamson, Hannaford, & Rohland, 2018; Haldon, Elton, et al., 2018). Recent advances in paleoclimatology and historical climate reconstruction have resulted in increased numbers of highly-resolved series of long-term climatic changes (Emile-Geay et al., 2017). Similarly, the digital age has enhanced our capacity to produce bigger datasets on historical variations in human activity than ever before. These new opportunities have led to an increasing use of historical data to untangle climate-society linkages.

The role of climate variability in pre-colonial southern African history is highly disputed. We here provide a synthesis and critique of climate-society discourses relating to two regionally defining periods of state formation and disaggregation. The first period involves the eleventh-thirteenth century development of socio-political complexity and the rise of southern Africa’s first state, Mapungubwe, followed by its collapse and the shift in regional power to Great Zimbabwe. The later period encompasses the early-nineteenth century difaqane/mfecane mass migrations, violence and ensuing state-building activity. To further our assessment, we consider the wider contentious issues of climate causation and determinism in a regional context, but dispute suggestions of paradigm shift towards simplistic environmental collapse. Nevertheless, we specifically point to ambiguities in palaeoclimate records, a narrative tendency toward monocausal explanations, and a lack of integration among the literature as reasons for a sustained divergence in interpretation regarding the significance of climate. We move on to discuss the potential of integrative approaches to illuminate understanding of the complex interactions between past climate variability and human activity. In order to do so, we highlight interlinked concepts such as vulnerability and resilience as key for bridging the gap between the natural and social sciences. To conclude, we point to future climate-society priorities and ways forward in the form of research areas, data prospects and questions.

The coasts and coastal wetlands of Eastern England, like other lands around the North Sea basin, were subjected to recurrent and sometimes devastating floods in the later middle ages. Some towns and many rural settlements were destroyed or relocated, while others sustained repeated loss of life and property. Agricultural lands reverted to inter-tidal conditions in some areas, while major changes in land use occurred elsewhere. Coastal industries such as milling and peat-digging suffered, while estuarine fisheries expanded onto flooded farm-land. The changes were complex and can only be fully understood in terms of the interaction of environmental and socioeconomic processes. Population decline and economic recession changed the parameters within which risk and opportunity were evaluated after the middle of the fourteenth century.