Christian Rohr

A Bayesian Approach to Historical Climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15<sup>th</sup> Century

Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observat... more Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observations and paleoclimate records, there is still a large amount of valuable information in historical archives that has not been utilized for climate reconstruction. Due to the qualitative nature of these datasets, historical texts have been compiled and studied by historians aiming to describe the climate impact in socioeconomic aspects of human societies, but the inclusion of this information in past climate reconstructions remains fairly unexplored. Within this context, we present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate robust temperature and precipitation reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. After data assimilation, our reconstructions present a high seasonal temperature correlation of ∼ 0.8 independently of the climate model employed to estimate the background state of the atmosphere. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.

Download

Reanalysis sheds lights on 1916 avalanche disaster

One of the worst meteorological disasters in history took place in the southeastern Alps during t... more One of the worst meteorological disasters in history took place in the southeastern Alps during the infamous winter of 1916/17. Avalanches following a massive snowfall event killed thousands of soldiers as well as civilians. Today’s numerical techniques open up new possibilities to study this historical event. Combining historical measurements with reanalyses and dynamical downscaling makes it possible to reconstruct weather even down to local scales and thus to the scale captured by historical documents on weather impacts.

Download

Wasser in der mittelalterlichen Kultur / Water in Medieval Culture

Baukultur am Mittelrhein. Beziehungen zwischen Fluss und Architektur im 13. und 14.

Download

Supplementary material to "A Bayesian Approach to Historical Climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15<sup>th</sup> Century

Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observat... more Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observations and paleoclimate records, there is still a large amount of valuable information in historical archives that has not been utilized for climate reconstruction. Due to the qualitative nature of these datasets, historical texts have been compiled and studied by historians aiming to describe the climate impact in socio-economical aspects of human societies, but the inclusion of this information in past climate reconstructions remains fairly unexplored. Within this context, we present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15 th century to generate robust temperature and precipitation reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. After data assimilation, our reconstructions present a high seasonal temperature correlation of ∼0.8 independently of the climate model employed to estimate the background state of the atmosphere. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavour. Historical texts, both descriptive sources, such as chronicles, and written records of phenology, such as grape harvest dates, have enabled high-resolution reconstructions of temperature and precipitation for periods prior to the modern instrumental record . The principal approach for these reconstructions has been the "index" method . Historical climatologists working with these texts have converted their information into ordinal indices (typically -3 to +3), which approximate departures from average monthly or seasonal conditions, and they have calibrated these indices to early instrumental data to obtain reconstructed values for the pre-instrumental period. The resulting temperature and precipitation reconstructions have demonstrated high reconstruction skill, especially at the decadal scale. Nevertheless, 1

Download

Die Darstellung realer und fiktiver Naturkatastrophen bei Jeremias Gotthelf und Theodor Storm. Beobachtungen aus dem Blickwinkel der Kultur- und Umweltgeschichte

Deutsch im Hier und jetzt. Sammelband wissenschaftlicher Artikel gewidmet dem 85. Jubiläum des Lehrstuhls für Deutsch der Staatlichen W. Brjussow-Universität, 2023

q. trf Snr.unqh uLquL .rlbsuquL 2uuuluufuL 'DEUTSCH rv HIER uNo |ETZT" SAMMETBAND WISSENSCHAFTLIC... more q. trf Snr.unqh uLquL .rlbsuquL 2uuuluufuL 'DEUTSCH rv HIER uNo |ETZT" SAMMETBAND WISSENSCHAFTLICHER ARTIKEL GEWIDMET DEM 85. JUBILAUM DES LEHRSTUHLS FÜR DEUTSCH DER STAATLICHEN W.BRJUSSOW-UNIVERSITAT tr.IZ qbI-UULbI.bLh UUtrhnLh 85-UUgUr{hL Lqf'fqUO' (qbfUULbfbLC U3USb'\ b.{ ZhUlIu tuol-ugl.oq qhsuquL zn'I.{uoLbr'r' dnrlnquonh bphruh 2023 2S'I811.112.2(082) QU'I81.432.4943 q 502 suluqprlnttl t .{.trp1nr-uml}r urhr{urtr qhulu\ruh hruriurlurupruhlr qfruur\urh lo"nhn+h npn2rlurüp :

Download

1540-Climatic Change Supplementaries 10584 2014 1184 MOESM1 ESM

by Laurent Litzenburger, Christian Rohr, and Christian Pfister

Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015

by Dirk Riemann, Eduardo Zorita, Iso Himmelsbach, Maria Joao Alcoforado, Antonio Contino, thomas Labbé, Laurent Litzenburger, and Christian Rohr

Climatic Change, 2015

Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the resu... more Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, ( hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13) regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 Bprobably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540 Climatic Change

Download

Wetter et al.: The year of unprecedented heat and drought of 1540 - a worst case. Climatic Change 125 (2014): 349-363

by Kiss Andrea, Oliver Wetter, Laurent Litzenburger, Eduardo Zorita, Maria Joao Alcoforado, Iso Himmelsbach, Uwe Grünwald, and Christian Rohr

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic a... more The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Download

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

by Laurent Litzenburger and Christian Rohr

Climatic Change, 2014

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic a... more

Download

Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

by Dirk Riemann, Eduardo Zorita, Iso Himmelsbach, Laurent Litzenburger, and Christian Rohr

Climatic Change, 2014

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic a... more The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent Climatic Change Climatic Change investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary

Download

Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015

by Laurent Litzenburger and Christian Rohr

Climatic Change, 2015

Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the resu... more Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, (hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13) regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 Bprobably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540

Download

Precipitation reconstructions for Paris based on the observations by Louis Morin, 1665-1713 CE

Climate of the Past, 2023

This paper presents a precipitation reconstruction that is based on the continuous observations b... more This paper presents a precipitation reconstruction that is based on the continuous observations by Louis Morin in Paris from 1665–1713. Morin usually recorded precipitation intensity and duration three times each day (sometimes up to six times) when it snowed or rained. The continuity of his observations can be calculated considering all measurements and observations (e.g., temperature, cloud cover), where on 98.7% of all days between February 1665 and July 1713 at least one entry per day is noted. To convert these observations to common units, we calibrated them with a multiplicative interacting model using Philippe and Gabriele-Philippe de la Hire’s instrumental measurements from Paris. The two series of measurements by de la Hire (father and son) and observations by Morin overlap from 1688–1713. To test the quality of the reconstruction, we analyzed it with the de la Hire’s measurements, proxy data, an internal analysis of Morin’s measurements of different climate variables, and modern data. Thus, we assess the reliability of the precipitation reconstructions based on Morin’s data as follows. We have moderate confidence regarding the exact quantities of daily, seasonal, and annual precipitation totals. We have low confidence regarding exceptionally high precipitation amounts, but we have high confidence in the indices of an impact analysis (i.e., dry days, wet days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days); in monthly frequencies of rainfall; and in interannual, interseasonal, and interdecadal variability. Rainy seasons with precipitation totals greater than 250mm occurred in MAM 1682, JJA 1682, SON 1687, JJA 1697, and JJA 1703. Furthermore, compared to other DJF seasons, the winter of 1666/1667 slightly stands out with a precipitation total of 214.6 mm. Dry seasons with precipitation totals less than 60mm occurred in SON 1669, DJF 1671/1672, and DJF 1690/1691. An impact analysis shows no abnormalities regarding consecutive dry days or wet days in MAM. In JJA a longer dry period of 31 days appeared in 1686 and a dry period of 69 d appeared in DJF 1671/1672.

Download

Disaster memory and ‘banished memory’. General considerations and case studies from Europe and the United States (19th-21st centuries)

van Asperen, Hanneke; Jensen, Lotte (eds.): Dealing with Disasters from Early Modern to Modern Times. Cultural Responses to Catastrophes (Disaster Studies 1), 315-337., 2023

In 1981 medievalist and cultural historian Arno Borst presented the thesis that today's European ... more In 1981 medievalist and cultural historian Arno Borst presented the thesis that today's European societies have largely eliminated dealing with natural disasters from everyday life and that they have become a 'society of banished memory'. This contrasts with premodern societies, which integrated the risk of natural disasters far more into everyday life. By 'taming' natural hazards through river straightening and various protective structures, especially since the nineteenth century, small and medium-sized events have generally been avoided, but serious events became even more devastating when hitting the unprepared population. A prolonged absence of extreme events, a 'disaster gap' (Christian Pfister), could thus significantly increase the catastrophic nature of a new event. This chapter analyses selected flood, avalanche, storm, and earthquake events from Europe and North America (late 19th c.-present) to show which factors might have contributed to reshaping memory cultures after catastrophic events and which encouraged banishing memory against better judgement.

Download

Introduction on commons in a glocal world: linking local and global systems, power processes and local reactions in the management of common pool resources

This volume focuses on how, in Europe, the debate on the commons is discussed in regard to histor... more This volume focuses on how, in Europe, the debate on the commons is discussed in regard to historical and contemporary dimensions, critically referencing the work on Elinor Ostrom. It also explores from the perspective of new institutional political ecology (NIPE) how Europe directly and indirectly affected and affects, the commons globally. Most of the research on the management of commons pool resources is limited to dealing with one of two topics: either the interaction between local participatory governance and development of institutions for commons management, or a political-economy approach that focuses on global change as it is related to the increasingly globalised expansion of capitalist modes of production, consumption and societal reproduction. This volume bridges the two, addressing how global players affect the commons worldwide and how they relate to responses emerging from within the commons in a global-local (glocal) world. Authors from a range of academic disciplines present research findings on recent developments on the commons, including: historical insights; new innovations for participatory institutions building in Europe or several types of commons grabbing, especially in Africa related to European investments; and restrictions on the management of commons at the international level. European case studies are included, providing interesting examples of local participation in commons resource management, while simultaneously showing Europe as a centre for globalized capitalism and its norms and values, affecting the rest of the world, particularly developing countries. This book will be of interest to students and researchers from a wide range of disciplines including natural resource management, environmental governance, political geography and environmental history.

Wie warm oder kalt war das Mittelalter? Überlegungen zu den Möglichkeiten und Grenzen grossräumiger Klimarekonstruktionen auf der Basis von Dokumentendaten

Geschichte.aktuell 2. Schulbuch für BHS, 2. Jahrgang, 5. Auflage

Rezension zu: Karin Becker, Vincent Moriniaux, Martine Tabeaud (Hg.): L’alimentation et le temps qu’il fait. Essen und Wetter – Food and Weather. Paris 2015

Karin Becker / Vincent Moriniaux / Martine Tabeaud: L'alimentation et le temps qu'il fait Der Zus... more Karin Becker / Vincent Moriniaux / Martine Tabeaud: L'alimentation et le temps qu'il fait Der Zusammenhang von (extremer) Witterung sowie Klimaveränderungen und Ernährung wurde in den letzten beiden Jahrzehnten immer wieder diskutiert, wenn auch zumeist nur mit Bezug auf schwere Hungersnöte, wie "The Great Famine" in den 1310er-Jahren [1], die Nahrungsknappheit im Zuge des sogenannten Spörer-Minimums im 15. Jahrhundert [2] oder die Hungerkrise im Rahmen des "Jahres ohne Sommer" 1816 nach dem Ausbruch des Vulkans Tambora. [3] Dass die Verknüpfung dieser Themenfelder aber auch viel weitreichendere Ansätze zulässt, beweist der vorliegende Sammelband, der insgesamt 26 Referate

Download

Land der Berge? Alpine Landschaften, Kultur und Infrastruktur im Spiegel österreichischer und Schweizer Briefmarkenemissionen nach 1945

For personal use only. 59 Zur besseren Vergleichbarkeit wird hier wieder die Zählweise nach dem A... more

Download

Local knowledge and disaster memory in pre-modern and present-day societies and their impact on climate change adaptation

Eckart Olshausen, Holger Sonnabend (Hg.), Naturkatastrophen in der antiken Welt (Stuttgarter Kolloquium zur historischen Geographie des Altertums 6/1996, Stuttgart 1998)

Uploads

Papers by Christian Rohr

Log In