Trade Balance

Este artigo tem como objetivo investigar e estimar o grau de integração financeira do Brasil com os mercados de capitais internacionais no período de 1990 a 2004. O conceito de integração financeira fraca é adotado por meio da relação da paridade coberta de juros (PCJ). Essa condição de não-arbitragem é estimada, analisando comparativamente os resultados dos modelos de parâmetros fixos e parâmetros variáveis no tempo. A abordagem de parâmetros fixos foi realizada aplicando a metodologia de cointegração e de mecanismo de correção de erros ou mínimos quadrados ordinários. A análise da instabilidade nos parâmetros da PCJ é tratada por meio do filtro de Kalman a qual visa identificar a trajetória do grau de mobilidade ao longo do tempo. Os resultados indicaram que existe um grau de integração financeira intermediário no sentido fraco. Os desvios da PCJ indicaram a presença de barreiras à mobilidade de capital e à existência de um ganho excedente livre de risco para quem investir em títu...

The study empirically examined the impact of changes in crude oil prices on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2015. Times series data on crude oil price, inflation rate, real effective exchange rate, fuel pump price and GDP growth rate were gathered from secondary sources that include World Bank Development Indicators, BP Statistics and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Ng-Perron and Zivot-Andrews Tests, Johansen’s co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed as techniques of analysis. The time series property examined showed the existence of co-integration among the variables while the empirical results suggest that the ECT coefficients have negative signs and are statistically significant in all VECMs. In addition to that, the significance of ECT also exhibits that if the system is exposed to shock, it will converge to the long-run equilibrium at the following speed: for GDP (-0.8002), inflation (-0....

which will appear three times a year. The bulletin will highlight the results of in-house research done at the Czech National Bank. Given that maintaining exchange rate stability in the context of joining the EU is one of the key concerns of the Czech National Bank, this first issue of the Bulletin is devoted to (equilibrium) exchange rate determination in the Czech Republic. First, Aleš Bulíř looks into the scope of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in Central European countries to establish the causes of those fluctuations. Next, Tomáš Holub investigates the factors of equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation in the Czech Republic, again from an international perspective. In this context, the effects of price convergence to the level of EU countries are analysed in more detail. Finally, Vladislav Flek discusses the impact of real catching-up with EU productivity levels, within the framework of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. Since this is the inaugural issue of the Bulletin , an...

This thesis examines the relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate and the trade balances of 20 industries in which majority of the trade between Turkey and her leading partner Germany is carried out, both for the short and long run, in search of the existence of any J-curve effect. Using quarterly data over the period 1989:1-2011:3, the relationship is analyzed empirically through the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling. The findings show that, although the pattern created by a depreciation does not follow the compl ete J curve in any of the industries, still the exchange rate as well as foreign and domestic real incomes are effective determinants of bilateral trade balance between Turkey and Germany in majority of the cases both in the short and in the long run. Moreover, this thesis provides strong support for the assertion that at the disaggregate level industries exhibit unique and distinct trade balance responses to exchange rate ...

As our economies become more open and interlinked the regulatory regimes and the implementation of environmental regulations is required to adapt. Going form national economies to linked international economies the regulation of domestic emissions and natural recourses no longer reflects a control over the environmental impact of domestic consumption. This study explores the domestic fraction of environmental impacts generated in a case where two identical economies trade with each other. First a brief introduction to basic input output algebra is given. Then a reformulation of the model for a mirrored economy is derived. Through this the domestic fraction of economic activity generated and the domestic fraction of environmental impacts generated by a unit purchase of a commodity can be found. The suggested framework is then applied to the Norwegian IO tables. The results are presented and discussed in the context of regulatory policy.

This study explores the role of commercial services in shaping territorial inequalities across Romania's eight development regions. Economic disparities have been a persistent challenge, and understanding the impact of trade-related indicators on regional development is essential. The objective of this research is to analyze how the number of employees in trade, trade sector salaries, the number of enterprises, and regional GDP contribute to these inequalities. The methodology involves a quantitative approach, utilizing regional statistical data to examine trends and variations in key economic indicators. Oltenia. The number of enterprises and employees in trade, as well as salary levels, show a direct correlation with regional GDP, emphasizing the uneven distribution of economic activity. This research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the trade sector's role in territorial inequalities. The originality of the study lies in its empirical approach, highlighting the impact of commercial services as a driver of economic polarization and regional imbalances.

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The trade balance is a crucial indicator that significantly influences a country's economic growth. The 2008 financial crisis revealed that many European countries had underestimated the importance of the trade balance. As a result, it was primarily the state sector in Europe that suffered from the crisis, unlike the United States, where the private financial sector was more heavily affected. In this context, the present paper focuses on analyzing the trade balance indicator. The aim is to examine the state of Albania's trade balance and its influence on economic growth during the transition period. To achieve this, the paper is structured around the following objectives: a) To present and analyze theoretical perspectives on the trade balance, particularly in the context of economic growth, b) To assess the trade balance situation in Albania during the transition periodic) To analyze the impact of the trade balance on economic growth using econometric methods, d) To provide policy recommendations for the Albanian government. The analysis utilizes data from relevant institutions and employs both graphical representation and econometric techniques, specifically using the EViews software. The primary data analyzed include Albania's trade balance and GDP over the period 1996-2021.

Despite ongoing efforts to diversify its economy, Tunisia's agricultural sector remains a cornerstone for employment, food security, and rural development. However, its vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks-particularly exchange rate fluctuations-raises critical concerns about the sector's trade performance and long-term competitiveness. This study empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on Tunisia's agricultural trade balance over the period 1981 to 2015. Employing a multiple linear regression framework, the analysis integrates key macroeconomic indicators, including real exchange rate fluctuations, GDP growth, global agricultural prices, and domestic agricultural output. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between exchange rate depreciation and the agricultural trade balance, indicating that currency weakening has eroded rather than improved trade competitiveness-likely due to the sector's reliance on imported inputs and limited export diversification. Additionally, rising world agricultural prices are found to exert a negative influence, suggesting that global price increases disproportionately affect input costs. In contrast, GDP growth and domestic agricultural production have weaker or statistically insignificant effects, reflecting structural inefficiencies and a muted supply-side response. These results challenge the conventional assumption that exchange rate depreciation benefits agricultural exporters and underscore the importance of contextspecific factors in shaping trade outcomes. The study concludes by recommending targeted investments in agricultural infrastructure, trade logistics, and policy coordination to strengthen Tunisia's agricultural resilience amid ongoing exchange rate and global market volatility.

International trade is definitely one of the most relevant factors when considering the economic expansion of a small country like Portugal and as such, this work analyzes the impact that the Balance of Payments can have on economic growth. For that, we apply Thirlwall's Law. In addition, following the international economic and financial crisis of 2008, that among others, led to a fall in Private Investment and Public and Private Consumption, this work aims at verifying whether international trade can contribute to growth. Moreover, we examine whether the production structure can influence national growth, by using Thirlwall's Multi-Sectoral Law. Furthermore, the evolution of the main exporting and importing sectors is described for the period 1994-2013 and the import and export demand functions are estimated both at an aggregated and sectoral level, in order to obtain the income elasticities that allow the computation of the Balance-of-Payments equilibrium growth rate. The results show Thirlwall's Law is not as accurate as usual, probably due to the peculiarity of the period of analysis. In addition, the multi-sectoral perspective proves to be a better approximation to the period's effective growth rate.

This paper introduces an alternative index to measure the external sector from a different focus. The indicator, called the "external sector development index" (SXi), is a new analytical tool for studying the external sector behaviour of any country or region. The SXi has four objectives. The first objective is to measure the vulnerability of the external sector of any country. The second is to evaluate the external sector performance. The third is to analyze the relationship between "the external sector main variable" ESi and GDP growth rates. The fourth is to evaluate the external sector (SXi) cycle based on the table of possible combinations between ESi and GDP. In our case, we apply the SXi on the Chinese and ASEAN economies.

Addressing the generation of household, municipal and industrial waste associated with modern living is a key challenge for sustainable development. For the most part however, waste accounts and data sets do not readily reveal how much waste is attributable to different aspects of modern living. In particular, most waste accounts are production based accounts which do not reveal which specific household activities are driving upstream waste production. In addition, many waste accounts omit the wastes incurred abroad as a result of the demand for imported goods. This paper sets out a framework to rectify these omissions and illustrates its application to the case of (upstream) paper and card wastes in the UK. Specifically, the study proposes an attribution framework based on environmental input output (EIO) analysis, in which production sector wastes are attributed to 18 high-level household functional use categories - such as food, housing, transport, education and so on - using a 1...

The history of Japanese exchange rates, though short by British or American standards, is exceedingly rich, both from the standpoint of variation in the data and in the institutions governing exchange rate arrangements and Japanese monetary conditions. This paper reviews that history and traces the evolution of yen-dollar and yen-sterling exchange rates from 1874 until the present, comparing their behavior to that of the dollar-sterling rate. It shows the relationships of all three nominal exchange rates to indexes of purchasing power parity, and it investigates the links among exchange-rate regimes, exchange rates themselves and other macroeconomic variables. Two conclusions emerge: (1) Purchasing power parity -at least in relative form -held remarkably well for the yen over the longer run. (2) The variability of real yen exchange rates under the current float does not, in fact, differ greatly from the often substantial and largely self-reversing movements observed historically. * I would like to thank Cornelia McCarthy for comments on and assistance in the preparation of this paper, and Kyung-Won Lee and Dario Werthein for their computational help. Most important is the debt that I owe to the late John Metcalf who stimulated my interest in Japanese monetary issues and directed me to what had then been a largely unexploited body of data.

The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

En 1998 se culminan las negociaciones con Chile, celebrándose así el acuerdo de complementación económica (ACE N°38) que incluye un cronograma de desgravación que elimina en un plazo de 18 años los derechos aduaneros, cargas equivalentes de carácter fiscal, monetario, cambiario o de cualquier otra naturaleza para la formulación de una zona de libre comercio. Durante el 2006 se suscribe, en base del ACE N° 38, el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio entre Perú y Chile y este entra en vigencia el primero de Marzo de 2009. Durante el intercambio de bienes y servicios entre Perú y Chile dinamizan su producción interna, elevan su competitividad y se crean efectos multiplicadores para los sectores productivos de ambos países; Pero el intercambio trae consigo efectos propios del comercio exterior como son el creador y desviador de comercio. Esta investigación busca estimar el efecto creador y desviador de comercio en el sector de agricultura y alimentos a partir del análisis de los flujos de exportac...

Agriculture is the primary sector in Karene District Sierra Leone becaus
e it gives work to 60% of residents,enhances the country's Gross Dom
estic Product, and sustains food supplies for the nation's population.
This research examines agricultural productivity factors because traditi
onal farming methods and new economic situations create difficulties.
Reported findings use quantitative analysis through the Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM) and econometric evaluation to examine 45
years of data obtained through local farmer surveys combined with
secondary agricultural data from government and international database
s. Studiesdiscovered that superior land optimization techniques boost
production levels but unproductive labor payment methods reduce these
yields.The research demonstrates how directed capital investment acts
as a basic requirement to help farmers adopt new technologies. Using
obtained study insights,the research establishes specific policy measurs
that boost agricultural output in Karene District.This study recommends
that the government establish programs that train farmers better, extend
financial backing for modern farming systems,and establish agricultural
groups that will help members share resources and collaborate on
marketing efforts.This research has built academic knowledge about
agricultural economics while providing essential references to policyma
kers and development agencies concentrating on sustainable agriculture
expansion in Sierra Leone together with comparable sub Saharan Africa
n areas. A thorough examination of agricultural productivity complexiti
es will help develop complete policies that improve food security and
enhance the social and economic conditions of smallholder farmers
across the region.

Cet article vise à démontrer que le Brésil doit surmonter sa dépendance aux capitaux et aux technologies étrangers, aux marchés d'exportation et aux importations pour exercer sa souveraineté. Au Brésil, les grandes entreprises transnationales occupent les segments économiques les plus importants et les plus dynamiques au cœur des chaînes de valeur, ce qui leur permet d'exercer un contrôle stratégique sur la production et la commercialisation (amont et aval) de chaque secteur. Outre sa dépendance aux capitaux étrangers pour ses investissements, le Brésil s'appuie également sur les technologies étrangères. Le Brésil connaît également une croissance de ses recettes d'exportation et de ses dépenses d'importation, ce qui contribue à sa dépendance accrue aux marchés d'exportation et aux importations de biens et services. Le Brésil ne pourra exercer sa souveraineté tant qu'il restera dépendant des capitaux étrangers, des technologies étrangères, des marchés d'exportation et des importations. Pour garantir sa souveraineté, il est nécessaire non seulement de renforcer sa puissance de dissuasion militaire, mais aussi et surtout de surmonter sa dépendance aux capitaux et aux technologies extérieurs, ainsi qu'aux marchés d'exportation et d'importation.

For the sample period annual data between 1977 to 2020 ,for Papua new Guinea , there is a long-run relationship (cointegration) between the exports , the real GDP , the PGK/USD exchange rate , the variability of the exchange rate , the consumer prices , the imports , and the money supply .Most of the aforesaid relationships or the signs of the coefficients of the variables in the cointegrating vector , after transformation into equation form are as expected from the theory .For example , the depreciation of the exchange rate of PGK /USD increases the exports ; but the increase in the variability of the PGK/USD rate decreases the exports by discouraging the exporters from the heightened uncertainty as the exporters are risk averse. The increase in the consumer prices and money supply decreases the exports. The increase in GDP has of course a positive favourable effect on the exports. Granger-causality using the Errorcorrection model has established that the change in natural log of the exports from Papua New Guinea are Granger-caused by the past level or the past trend of other variables in the system, namely the money supply, kina-dollar exchange rates depreciation, and the real GDP., the consumer prices and the variability of the exchange rate.

Desde o início da industrialização é possível observar um aumento dos níveis de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) causados pelas atividades humanas. Diante desse cenário, os problemas em torno dos GEE e as mudanças climáticas relacionadas se tornaram relevantes pontos de debate. As discussões sobre o tema começam a ganhar o cenário mundial a partir do Protocolo de Quioto e estão em voga devido ao fato que o crescimento dos GEE se manteve, mesmo com o avanço e surgimento de políticas climáticas. Além disso, estão em voga devido à globalização acelerada das economias mundiais e à expansão do comércio internacional. Desta forma, o trabalho busca fazer uma investigação empírica sobre as responsabilidades pelas emissões e o comércio internacional para 27 países da União Europeia e 13 países selecionados para o período de 1995 a 2009. O trabalho também permeia questões e discussões em torno das teorias e hipóteses ambientais que envolvem o comércio internacional. Para tanto, foram utilizadas matrizes de insumo-produto para 40 países mais o "restante do mundo" que abrangem o período de 1995 a 2009, provenientes do Projeto WIOD. Em termos de resultados, temos indícios de que os decréscimos das emissões de alguns países são provenientes de uma maior interação em termos de comércio.

Since the beginning of industrialization it is possible to observe an increase in the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by human activities . Given this issues, the problem of greenhouse gas (GHG) and related climate change are relevant points today. Discussions began to gain the attention of the world with the Kyoto Protocol and they are in vogue due to the fact that the growth of GHG remained, even with emergence and advancement of climate policies. Moreover, they are in vogue due the sudden globalization of world economies and the expansion of international trade. Thus, this paper seeks to make an empirical investigation of the responsibility for CO2 emissions and international trade for the 27 countries of the European Union and 13 other selected countries for the period of 1995-2009. This paper also permeates issues and discussions about the environmental theories and hypotheses involving international trade. The inputoutput matrices were used for 40 countries plus the "rest of world" for the period of 1995-2009, through the database of the WIOD project. The following results can be highlighted: i) the increase of CO2 emissions in developing countries (e.g. Brazil , Russia, India and China) ; ii) the opposing behavior of the USA and BRIC ( Brazil , Russia, India and China), with the exception of India, in terms of net balances of emissions embodied in international trade; iii) evidence that the decrease of CO2 emissions in some countries comes from greater interaction in terms of trade with other countries; iv) the developed countries have an internal production process increasingly less polluting, and contrary to, developing countries have an internal production process more polluting, given the pairing between them. Furthermore, this study, through the different results, makes a discussion on the theory of environmental Kuznets curve, the pollution haven effect, the pollution haven hypothesis, trade's patterns between North and South, and others.

This paper presents a very simple model of the effects of flexible exchange rates in the transmission of business cycles. The starting point is the traditional "locomotive" effect, through exports and imports. Aside from this horizontal transmission, the intertemporal exchange rate model presented here allows for the effect of future internal shocks on home income (horizontal transmission) as well as for the effect of future external shocks on home income (diagonal transmission). These channels highlight the role of flexible rates and follow from an intertemporal constraint on the trade balance. In the presence of foreign-held debt, furthermore, the locomotive effect can be reversed, so that a foreign boom can cause a recession at home. The determinants of the debt ceiling are derived. The model is simulated in the case of two symmetric countries with constant values for the policy variables and the interest rates at home and abroad.

This paper investigates determinants of competition in agro-food trade between five transition Central European Countries (CEC-5) (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) and the European Union (EU-15) countries during the preenlargement years 1995-2003. We distinguish between one-way exports and imports, and two-way successful and unsuccessful price and quality competition in agro-food trade between the CEC-5 and the EU-15. The effect of trade balance on trade competition is found more significant than the effect of export-import unit values difference. Natural and human factor endowments increase price competition and reduce unsuccessful quality competition. Higher level of economic development reduces quality competition, whereas the size of the economy reduces price competition and increases quality competition. Agricultural labor productivity improves price and quality competition. Less quality differentiated products increase price competition. Research and de...

For the sample period annual data between 1977 to 2020 ,for Papua new Guinea , there is a long-run relationship (cointegration) between the exports , the real GDP , the PGK/USD exchange rate , the variability of the exchange rate , the consumer prices , the imports , and the money supply .Most of the aforesaid relationships or the signs of the coefficients of the variables in the cointegrating vector , after transformation into equation form are as expected from the theory .For example , the depreciation of the exchange rate of PGK /USD increases the exports ; but the increase in the variability of the PGK/USD rate decreases the exports by discouraging the exporters from the heightened uncertainty as the exporters are risk averse. The increase in the consumer prices and money supply decreases the exports. The increase in GDP has of course a positive favourable effect on the exports. Granger-causality using the Errorcorrection model has established that the change in natural log of the exports from Papua New Guinea are Granger-caused by the past level or the past trend of other variables in the system, namely the money supply, kina-dollar exchange rates depreciation, and the real GDP., the consumer prices and the variability of the exchange rate.

The UK ended the last decade with a dramatic deterioration in its balance of payments. In 1989 the current account deficit exceeded £20bn which, at 4 per cent of gross domestic product, represented the largest deficit since the
war. In the 1960s and '70s, such a figure would have been regarded as a national catastrophe. In contrast, the present Government maintains that today's current account deficit is evidence of economic success, rather than failure.  The Government's view is that, unlike past current account deficits which were 'associated with large budget deficits and poor economic performance', today's trade figures reflect the UK's renewed economic strength, with investment-led growth causing a temporary deficit which can be easily financed with capital inflows from abroad. Ministers point out that the 'deficit is entirely the result of private sector decisions' to invest and save which are, by their nature, 'efficient and self-correcting', increasing, rather than reducing, the country's future economic welfare. This article examines some of these claims.

The aim of this article is to observe the trade exchange by calculating Relative Trade Advantage index with the wine products (HS 2204) of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the most common destinations concerning export and import. The data is used from the trade map data and wine institute data. The trade is based on the former Yugoslavia countries (Serbia, Croatia, North Macedonia, Slovenia, and Montenegro). Export market share and Import market share with these countries ranges from 60% to 95% of overall trade. The most important import partner is Serbia with a stake of 28.2%. The largest export partner is Croatia with 52.3% of all BiH’s export. The calculated RTA index had values from (-0.674) in 2012 to (-0.567) in 2019. Negative values of RTA index represent relative trade disadvantages in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s wine foreign exchange.

This perspective demonstrates that household electricity usage is a good proxy for poverty and a quick, efficient, and effective targeting mechanism for welfare benefits. As Sri Lanka’s economic crisis continues, up to 50% or more of the population will likely need state support, yet the existing welfare benefit scheme falls far short of its goals. Current targeting through Samurdhi reaches just about a quarter of all households and only 40% of the poorest decile of individuals. The analysis presented in this perspective shows that the alternative of using a threshold of 60kwh of electricity usage per month as a preliminary eligibility criterion will reach approximately 50% of the population and over 80% of the poorest among them and performs best among a set of alternatives, including Samurdhi.

The study examined the External Debt, Foreign Exchange and Sustainable Debt Managementthe Nigeria Experience, 1980 2017. The main objective of the study is to examine the effect of External Debt and Foreign Exchange on Sustainable Debt Management within the Nigerian context; the work which selected Nigeria as its sample, covered a period of 37 years. The model developed for the research has sustainable debt management (SDM) as dependent variable and independent variables were; External Debt (ED) and foreign exchange (EXCHR). Secondary data used were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics. The techniques used for analysis are the Ordinary Least Square Techniques, the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test Techniques and the Cointegration Test. The econometric techniques of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) results show that EXCHR had significant relationship with SDM in both short and long run periods while ED showed positive but insignificant relatio...

In a recent paper Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence to suggest the time that output takes to return to its trend following a negative shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper VAR models are used to provide empirical evidence on the speed of recovery of real output following an interest rate shock for a number of Asian economies. We find little evidence that the degree of persistence in output is systematically related to the type of exchange rate regime that particular countries have adopted. Across a number of specifications we find that real output for Hong Kong and Australia has the least persistence following a negative interest rate shock. These countries represent the two ends of the spectrum, the former has an exchange rate that is pegged to the U.S. dollar via a currency board and the latter has one of the more flexible exchange rates in the Asian region. This paper was written while the authors were Visiting Research Fellows at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. We thank the HKIMR for their hospitality and support. Emily Cheng provided research assistance for the paper. Comments and suggestions from seminar participants at the HKIMR and two referees are gratefully acknowledged. The views presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, its Council of Advisors or the Board of Directors.

We present an application of the recent CS-ARDL methodology in the context of a country’s trade balance–exchange rate relationship. The trade balance is expected to deteriorate first before improving in response to currency depreciation and vice versa, widely known as the J-curve effect satisfying the Marshall–Lerner condition in the long run. Combining bilateral and aggregate analysis in one setting by constructing specific panel data with one reference country, we find that aggregate analysis is sensitive to our allowance for heterogeneity. Estimates using the aggregate time series data show evidence favoring the J-curve relation, whereas the aggregate analysis resulting from the panel time series data shows that currency appreciation improves trade balance in Bangladesh in the long run, which goes against the Marshall–Lerner condition. With the reference of the existing commodity-level literature, we argue that this atypical scenario lines with the realities of a ‘small’ economy ...

Nos últimos anos, Moçambique tem vindo a introduzir uma série de medidas para a liberalização da sua conta capital, incluindo o Programa de Medidas de Aceleração Económica. A aprovação da Lei Cambial n.º 28/2022, de 29 de Dezembro, bem como um conjunto de incentivos fiscais e não fiscais ao IDE, fazem parte dessa política de abertura financeira. Essas medidas constituem um passo crucial para a integração da economia moçambicana na economia global. Entretanto, a par desses desenvolvimentos, surge uma questão: como é que a flexibilização da conta capital afecta a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio real? Os resultados empíricos revelam que, a longo prazo, o impacto da abertura da conta capital na volatilidade é duplo, sendo que a abertura do IDE amplifica a volatilidade, enquanto a abertura dos outros investimentos, integrantes da conta financeira, mitiga a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Esses resultados sublinham a necessidade de uma coordenação eficiente da política cambial, monetária e fiscal, com o objectivo de reduzir a volatilidade cambial sem sacrificar a integração financeira. Palavras-chave: volatilidade cambial, conta capital, política cambial e integração financeira. Declaração de Responsabilidade As análises e opiniões expressas no presente artigo são exclusivamente do autor.

One of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. We analyze the costs of reducing this gap using a global CGE model. A range of carbon taxes are considered for Annex I countries as policy instruments. We find that the average per capita CO2 emissions of Annex I countries would still remain almost twice as high as that of Non-Annex I countries in 2030 even if CO2 emissions of the former is reduced by 57% from the baseline through a heavy carbon tax of $250/tCO2. The global reduction of CO2 emission would be only 18% due to an increase in CO2 emissions in the Non-Annex I countries. This reduction would not be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at the level implied by UNFCCC to avoid the dangerous climate change. The $250/tCO2 carbon tax, on the other hand, would reduce Annex I countries' GDP by 2.4%, and global trade volume by 2%. We conclude that a demand for the convergence of per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries would not be fruitful in climate change negotiations.

The study examines the non-linear relationship between Public Debt and Real Economic Growth in India during the Post-FRBM period using annual data from 2004-05 to 2023-24. Employing a Quadratic Regression Model, the analysis explores the impact of Public Debt-GDP ratio and its square on real GDP Growth rate. The result revealed a statistically significant inverted U-shaped relationship, indicating that moderate levels of debt are associated with higher economic growth but excessive debt beyond a threshold of approximately 74.5 percent of GDP negatively affects GDP Growth. These findings indicate that India's fiscal policy guided by Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act must balance debt sustainability with growth objectives. The study highlights the need for maintaining public debt within a sustainable range to foster longterm economic growth without surpassing the optimal debt threshold.

With climate change and environmental pollution worsening each year, especially developing countries are seeking to attract environmentally friendly foreign direct investment (FDI) while reducing dependence on imported energy. In countries like South Africa that rely heavily on coal and other fossil fuels, environmental pollution is increasing, sustainable development is being hampered and the importance of renewable energy sources is becoming more and more recognized. This study examines the relationships between renewable energy consumption, ecological footprint (EF), trade balance and FDI in South Africa over the period 1990-2021 using ARDL bounds test and finds that there is a long run cointegration relationship between these variables. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test results show that the variables affect each other in the long run; FDI, renewable energy consumption and trade balance affect EF, while EF and trade balance affect FDI. An increase in renewable energy consumption contributes to environmental improvement, while an improvement in the trade balance can reduce South Africa's EF. The study also suggests that the use of renewable energy can positively affect the trade balance and provides policy recommendations, constraints and suggestions for future research.

This paper estimates the effect of Chinese Yuan devaluation on the trade balance of China.  For that a regression equation is developed in which domestic income, foreign income, domestic money supply, foreign money supply and real effective exchange rate are used as explanatory variable with trade balance as the dependent variable. In order to test the J-curve phenomenon the lagged values of exchange rata are also included.  Quarterly time series data from 1999 to 2016 are used.  Before estimating the model the time series properties of the data are diagnosed and an error correction model is developed and estimated.  The estimated results show that the contemporaneous effect of devaluation is positive, but the total effect is insignificant.  A J-curve pattern of adjustment of the trade balance is also detected.

Livestock management on semiarid ranges is closely linked to ecosystem behavior, and is generally risky. Forward stochastic dynamic programming was used to compare livestock management decisions made under assumptions of risk. This comparison determines when a stochastic system can properly be managed as a deterministic system; that is, when the certainty equivalence property holds. Low forage quality and animal growth with constant or decreasing prices near the end of the grazing season favored early scale of cattle. Sale dates regulated of the standing crop of vegetation left at the end of the grazing season. Fluctuations in rainfall did not change the optimal decisions at low initial stocking rates. However, at high initial stocking rates the optimal strategies using deterministic and stochastic models were different during the last half of the grazing season. Therefore, risk was greater for high initial stocking rates than for low initial stocking rates. Risk was less for flexible marketing dates. A substantial portion of livestock production of the world takes place on rangelands with arid or semi-arid climates. These climates have large rainfall fluctuations that influence forage production and the decisions to be made with regard to livestock production. Medium-and long-term risk in forage production has been studied by , , among others. Less attention has been paid to short-term decisions that take place within a grazing season. These decisions are related to two fundamental issues in range science: (a) optimal stocking rate (area per animal per unit of time); and (b) vegetation remaining at the

Portugal has some geographical similarities with Finland: both are small and rather peripherical countries. However, the infection with the Human Immunodefi ciency Virus (HIV) has different patterns in Portugal from those in Finland. At the beginning of the 21st ...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest substantial spillover effects of aging through international financial channels. To maintain sustainability, fiscal adjustment needs to be broad-based, while avoiding increases in direct taxes. There are substantial benefits from fiscal cooperation, while negative growth effects can be offset by complementary structural reforms in product and labor markets with the benefits accruing early and to all incomegroups.

This paper analyses the fundamentals of the Portuguese crisis. The financial crisis of 2007 worsened and triggered the current Portuguese crisis. We argue that the main problem the economy is facing is its output stagnation due to a kind of Dutch disease that has created high and increasing levels of indebtedness, low and decreasing levels of saving and has reduced Portuguese competitiveness. Moreover, the existence of a dualist labour market and a new wave of emigration produce inefficiency, increasing unemployment of younger workers and the supply of human capital abroad funded by the Portuguese taxpayers. Governance problems such as poor public budget governance and lack of transparency and accountability are also at stake. These governance problems must be solved to allow the economy to return to its long-run growth path.

Ce mémoire étudie la faisabilité économique d’une Sécurité Sociale de l’Alimentation (SSA) en France, inspirée du modèle de la Sécurité Sociale de 1946. Face à une précarité alimentaire croissante et un système agroalimentaire inégalitaire, le projet vise à garantir à tous un accès digne, durable et démocratique à l’alimentation. Une expérimentation a été menée en Gironde où les participants cotisent et reçoivent une allocation mensuelle (150 MoNa) pour acheter des produits sélectionnés collectivement. Le mémoire propose une modélisation économique complète du dispositif à l’échelle nationale, estimant un budget annuel d’environ 94 milliards d’euros. Plusieurs scénarios de financement sont analysés : cotisations, impôts ou combinaison des deux. L’étude souligne les nombreux coûts évités (sanitaires, sociaux, environnementaux) grâce à la SSA. Elle démontre également la viabilité à long terme du système, en l’intégrant potentiellement au régime général. Le projet se distingue par sa dimension démocratique, écologique et sociale.

This study researches the effects of changes in the exchange rate on the trade balance after the transition to the floating exchange rate in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, ARDL and ECM models have been developed by using quarterly data from 2003 through 2018. The starting point of the research is to examine the validity of the JCurve theory in the Turkish economy. According to the results of the analysis of the main model used in the study, there is no J-Curve effect on the trade balance in the related period. The results state that the effect of changes in exchange rates on the foreign trade balance is limited. The main reason for that is the high usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs in production. The results of analysis show that the fundamental structural problem of Turkey's economy is the usage of imported intermediate goods and inputs. Therefore, the effect of the exchange rate on trade balance differs from theoretical expectations. The main policy resul...

The currency denominations of a country's exports and imports are not necessarily the same. If this is the case, then a change in the exchange rate parity among major currencies will affect the trade balance. The empirical evidence provided from Turkey -where exports are mostly denominated in Euros and imports are mostly denominated in USD -suggests that an appreciation of the Euro against the USD would increase the output in the long-run, appreciate the local currency and improve the trade balance for the 1985:01 2003:07 period.

The impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance is still an empirically unanswered question within international and financial economics. This paper is pointed towards partial clarification of that question as the author analyses trade perspectives in Croatia through the concept of an S-curve. The S-curve is an extension of the J-curve, for the impact of exchange rate depreciation wears out after a while and there is no further improvement when all impacts are realised, meaning that at the top of the curve the slope is zero or negative. By focusing on the relationship between the terms of trade (exchange rate) and trade balance the author is trying to provide some new insights into trade dynamics over a business cycle in Croatia. The main result is that both unconditional and conditional relations (conditional to technology's role identified in the vector error correction model) are consistent with the empirical S-curve pattern of cross-correlations between the trade balance and the terms of trade (exchange rate). Nonetheless, the inability of the S-curve to depict the strength and/or the speed of the adjustment process before and after the terms of trade/exchange rate depreciation explains its limitation within policy recommendations for Croatia.

This paper analyzes why the Association Agreements between the Central and Eastern European countries, referred to as Central European Associates (CEAs), and the European Union (EU) have failed with respect to agriculture. In the first part of the paper the development and importance of agricultural trade in the CEAs is described. It is shown that the EU is the most important trading partner in agricultural and food products for the CEAs. However, in recent years the trade balance for agricultural and food products between these countries and the EU has changed in favor of the latter; this is contrary to the aim of these agreements. Important external and internal factors determining trade relations between the EU and the CEAs are identified and discussed in the second half of the paper. These include the development of the real exchange rates, restrictions in the levels of domestic production, inadequate food quality compared to EU products, and insufficient sanitary standards in a...

One of the striking features in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is the deterioration of their agricultural and food trade balance during transition to a market economy as imports increased faster than exports or exports even declined. This paper investigates the Slovenian agricultural and food trade in more detail focusing on changes in the geographical distribution of trade and the nature of trade specialization on the basis of the Grubel-Lloyd Intra-Industry Trade index and Marginal Intra-Industry Trade Indices. The results indicate that Slovenian agricultural and food trade largely remains of the inter-industry type with specialisation of exports towards the former Yugoslav markets and imports from the European Union. The proportion of intra-industry trade was especially low for bulk commodities with little or no processing. A major explanations for these findings is that despite the "free" trade agreements Slovenia signed with the EU and countries of Centr...

The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

During 1986 to 1988, the Papua New Guinea economy experienced a phase of consistent growth and low inflation, however in 1990 the economy suffered the major shocks of the closure of the Bougainville Copper Limited mine and a deterioration in the country's terms of trade. Facing the stark prospect of a deep recession, the government instituted a stabilisation structural adjustment program. Despite the economic recovery following the remedies, the Papua New Guinea economy is still saddled with problems of law and order, unemployment and a decline in mining exploration and investment.

During 1986 to 1988, the Papua New Guinea economy experienced a phase of consistent growth and low inflation, however in 1990 the economy suffered the major shocks of the closure of the Bougainville Copper Limited mine and a deterioration in the country's terms of trade. Facing the stark prospect of a deep recession, the government instituted a stabilisation structural adjustment program. Despite the economic recovery following the remedies, the Papua New Guinea economy is still saddled with problems of law and order, unemployment and a decline in mining exploration and investment.

In this paper, a New-Keynesian model with non-Ricardian households is used to analyze the impact of different fiscal policy measures on private consumption. The model is solved and estimated outside and at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) through a Markov-switching approach, based on Japanese data over the period 1980Q1-2020Q3, and also following two different fiscal rule specifications. Results show that consumption does not respond positively to fiscal stimulus measures, even after inclusion of rule-of-thumb consumers. This results from the prevalence of Ricardian behavior in the model, in addition to the decline in real wages that follows most measures. Inclusion of distortionary taxation alters the variables' responses through the impact of tax rate movements. Conversely, the presence of the ZLB is not found to affect the model substantially, except after a consumption or a wage income tax cut. A capital income tax cut is found the be the optimal fiscal stimulus measure. Its impact mainly results from the increase in investment which shifts the economy's productive capacity upward, thereby boosting consumption and real wages. Finally, a variance decomposition analysis shows that consumption is mainly driven by labor supply and technology shocks.

To achieve the United Nations MDGs (Millennium Development Goals) in less developed Asian countries it is required to increase international cooperation to reach higher educational level of population and investment per head. In this article we analyze the evolution of economic development and poverty count in 30 countries of Asia and Pacific, and estimated the positive effect of education and investment on development. Poverty count is very high in several Asian countries and we recommend international cooperation to eradicate poverty and increase investment and development. International cooperation to development should have into account that trade deficits should be sustainable and economic policies should avoid financial crisis, both in developing and developed countries, derived from strong and unsustainable trade balances.