Papers by George Papachristos

Energy, 2025
The building sector is a major energy end-use sector globally. Promoting the green transformation... more The building sector is a major energy end-use sector globally. Promoting the green transformation of the building sector via green finance instruments (GFIs) is crucial for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study develops a system dynamics assessment methodology, simulating the dynamics of various building stocks with different energy efficiencies and quantifying the long-term systemic impact of multiple GFIs on both the new development of green buildings and energy retrofitting of existing buildings. The results show that with the implementation of a combination of GFIs, the amount of energy use reduction in the building sector keeps expanding; while the amount of CO 2 reduction will reach its highest level from 2040 to 2045 and it subsequently declines. Within the GFI mix, the results demonstrate the indispensable role of fiscal subsidies and the critical bridging role of green insurance for the green transformation of the building sector. The systemic effect of the GFI mix is 22.3 % greater than the sum of the effects of constituent individual GFIs. Drawing on these findings, more targeted GFIs for different building types are proposed, and differentiated policies to both building developers and financial agencies are suggested.

This chapter examines how complexity science and systems thinking approaches can enhance our unde... more This chapter examines how complexity science and systems thinking approaches can enhance our understanding of sustainability transitions. The chapter provides a cursory review on how the sustainability transitions literature builds on other systems approaches, particularly complex systems
approaches and system dynamics. It outlines the conceptual link of these approaches to the main theoretical sustainability transitions frameworks and describes the extent to which the former are the source of insights that have been applied and have informed the latter. The chapter first explores how
systems thinking has informed our conceptualization of socio-technical systems and innovation systems. We then examine how complexity science and system dynamics approaches help us understand transition dynamics, particularly through concepts like path dependence, feedback loops, and emergent behaviour. Finally, we discuss and illustrate through specific case studies the practical application of these approaches in transition research and policy-making. By understanding systems approaches, researchers can better grasp how different elements of transitions interact and how these
interactions influence transition processes. For early career researchers, this chapter provides systems thinking tools for transitions analysis.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025
The building sector is one of the largest CO2 for reducing CO2 emitters. Prefabrication technolo... more The building sector is one of the largest CO2 for reducing CO2 emitters. Prefabrication technology (PT) shows remarkable potential emissions during the material and construction phases of the building life cycle. However, the diffusion of PT in China is still in its infancy, and more targeted policies are necessary to accelerate the adoption of PT. This study proposes a combined system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach to include the technology adoption behavior of enterprises at the micro level, and the market effects and policies at the macro level. This approach provides a more comprehensive modeling approach and analysis for technology diffusion. Results show that the diffusion of PT has experienced three phases: (i) an initial phase that lasted until 2016, (ii) a mandatory adoption phase from 2016 to 2025, and (iii) a mandatory and market adoption phase that will last from 2025 to 2035 under appropriate policy mixes. A policy mix with moderate intensity is the most efficient in
terms of balancing the policy effect and feasibility. The potential of CO2
reduction depends on both the diffusion rate of PT and the floor area of new buildings. Mandatory adoption is more effective than incentive-based
policies in reducing CO2 emissions.

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2024
This paper examines the role of transition factors in the emergence, upscaling, and diffusion of... more This paper examines the role of transition factors in the emergence, upscaling, and diffusion of niche innovations in developing countries and juxtaposes them with the case study of a Waste-to-Energy socio-technical niche in the ongoing green transition of Ghana’s waste management and
energy systems. A systematic literature review of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) and the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) transition frameworks applications to developing countries identifies twenty-four categories of influential factors and produces four main inferences: (i) niche innovations and experiments that are often non-technological and are driven by urgent
local needs, remain understudied; (ii) landscape factors strongly shape the selection, development, and spread of innovations; (iii) regimes are multimodal, with co-existing, interconnected technologies, rules, structures, and roles, causing tensions; and (iv) innovation systems rely heavily on external sources, and they lack cohesive selection, monitoring, and assessment mechanisms. This review is followed by the case study constructed using academic literature, government and programme documents as well as interviews with key stakeholders. The in
ferences of the literature review are validated and additionally the role of the twenty-four categories of transition factors is examined. Key landscape, regime and innovation system function factors are found to play both a positive and negative role in the green transition. Landscape factors are the strongest drivers, but the most challenging barriers can be from other levels too. A cooperative governance model at local and regional levels, with maximal access to knowledge for redesigning of technologies to local conditions and continuous communication with key stakeholders and communities is essential for successful transition.

Projects as a speciation and aggregation mechanism in transitions: Bridging project management and transitions research in the digitalization of UK architecture, engineering, and construction industry
Technovation, Apr 1, 2024
Sociotechnical transitions are mostly seen in the literature as processes where actors and techno... more Sociotechnical transitions are mostly seen in the literature as processes where actors and technologies in small niches peripheral to an organizational field, accumulate momentum, scale up, aggregate, and eventually bring about large-scale regime change. Foundational examples include the British transition from sailing ships to steamships and the American transition from traditional factories to mass production. Herein lies a paradox, transitions concern large scale system change for example transition to electric cars or renewable energy, but large-scale options for technological change driven by incumbents have received less attention in transitions research. This is an important opportunity for transition research to draw on the literature of project management research on large-scale projects. We bridge transitions research and project management research by exploring speciation and aggregation from both perspectives. We illustrate how this bridge may be instantiated drawing on published research and interviews on six megaprojects that have been instrumental in the digital transformation of UK construction: (i) the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, (ii) Heathrow Terminal 5, (iii) London Olympics, (iv) Crossrail, (v) Thames Tideway and (vi) High Speed Two. The speciation of digital technology seeds the process of aggregation and UK industry transition which is driven by incumbents at the organizational field core and ripples outward to its periphery. This is a reverse process to the one mostly considered in transition research where change initiates in small niches peripheral to an organizational field and propagates until it eventually brings about large-scale change to its core.

Home for the Common Future (HCF): The use of home-meanings to promote domestic energy retrofit
The promotion of energy retrofit to homeowners is an important policy strategy to reduce operatio... more The promotion of energy retrofit to homeowners is an important policy strategy to reduce operational energy use in dwellings and mitigate climate change. Energy research and policy typically focus on the cognitive (logical) aspects to motivate retrofit decisions, such as savings on energy bills and health considerations. However, this focus appears to have neglected the emotional aspects of how homeowners themselves make sense of the potential benefits of low-carbon dwellings. To encompass both the emotional and cognitive aspects of energy retrofit decisions, the authors developed a home-meanings framework around the concept of perezhivanie (emotional and cognitive experience). We backgrounded our theoretical construction by drawing upon current literature of home-meanings and empirical insights from: (i) eighteen case studies, in ten of which homeowners achieved significant carbon emission reductions through retrofit activities, while in eight they did not; (ii) a stakeholder workshop (n = 36), representing various actors interested to advance domestic energy retrofit activities in the UK, e.g. industry, government, academia, intermediaries. We analysed the data to identify positive experiences associated with low-carbon dwellings. These experiences are organised in five themes: (i) control over one's environment; (ii) Health and well-being & Happiness in everyday life, (iii) Climate concerns & Caring identity, (iv) Financial considerations & Future-resilience; (v) a full integration between and individual and their environment. The authors developed a Home for the Common Future (HCF) heuristic, which captures three out of five identified themes (ii–iv). We suggest that the heuristic can be used for promoting the benefits of low-carbon dwellings.
Field experiences and lessons learned from applying participatory system dynamics modelling to sustainable water and agri-food systems
Journal of Cleaner Production, Dec 31, 2023
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
How Can We Design Policy Better? Frameworks and Approaches for Sustainability Transitions
Sustainability, Jan 11, 2024
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Technovation, 2024
Sociotechnical transitions are mostly seen in the literature as processes where actors and techno... more Sociotechnical transitions are mostly seen in the literature as processes where actors and technologies in small niches peripheral to an organizational field, accumulate momentum, scale up, aggregate, and eventually bring about large-scale regime change. Foundational examples include the British transition from sailing ships to steamships and the American transition from traditional factories to mass production. Herein lies a paradox, transitions concern large scale system change for example transition to electric cars or renewable energy, but large-scale options for technological change driven by incumbents have received less attention in transitions research. This is an important opportunity for transition research to draw on the literature of project management research on large-scale projects. We bridge transitions research and project management research by exploring speciation and aggregation from both perspectives. We illustrate how this bridge may be instantiated drawing on published research and interviews on six megaprojects that have been instrumental in the digital transformation of UK construction: (i) the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, (ii) Heathrow Terminal 5, (iii) London Olympics, (iv) Crossrail, (v) Thames Tideway and (vi) High Speed Two. The speciation of digital technology seeds the process of aggregation and UK industry transition which is driven by incumbents at the organizational field core and ripples outward to its periphery. This is a reverse process to the one mostly considered in transition research where change initiates in small niches peripheral to an organizational field and propagates until it eventually brings about large-scale change to its core.
Sustainability, 2024
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Energy Research and Social Science, 2024
The promotion of energy retrofit to homeowners is an important policy strategy to reduce operatio... more The promotion of energy retrofit to homeowners is an important policy strategy to reduce operational energy use in dwellings and mitigate climate change. Energy research and policy typically focus on the cognitive (logical) aspects to motivate retrofit decisions, such as savings on energy bills and health considerations. However, this focus appears to have neglected the emotional aspects of how homeowners themselves make sense of the potential benefits of low-carbon dwellings.
To encompass both the emotional and cognitive aspects of energy retrofit decisions, the authors developed a home-meanings framework around the concept of perezhivanie (emotional and cognitive experience). We backgrounded our theoretical construction by drawing upon current literature of home-meanings and empirical insights from: (i) eighteen case studies, in ten of which homeowners achieved significant carbon emission reductions through retrofit activities, while in eight they did not; (ii) a stakeholder workshop (n = 36), representing various actors interested to advance domestic energy retrofit activities in the UK, e.g. industry, government, academia, intermediaries.
We analysed the data to identify positive experiences associated with low-carbon dwellings. These experiences are organised in five themes: (i) control over one's environment; (ii) Health and well-being & Happiness in everyday life, (iii) Climate concerns & Caring identity, (iv) Financial considerations & Future-resilience; (v) a full integration between and individual and their environment. The authors developed a Home for the Common Future (HCF) heuristic, which captures three out of five identified themes (ii–iv). We suggest that the heuristic can be used for promoting the benefits of low-carbon dwellings.
Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Working towards a sustainable future: Recommendations to the policy makers in the EU countries

Social Science Research Network, 2023
A growing number of studies argue that organizational ambidexterity is increasingly important for... more A growing number of studies argue that organizational ambidexterity is increasingly important for the sustained competitive advantage of firms. However, organizational ambidexterity studies have been conducted in a wide variety of industries and methodological settings, and the empirical results have been mixed. The purpose of this article is to systematically examine the organizational ambidexterity-performance relationship to reconcile the mixed results of prior research. By conducting a metaanalysis of prior studies on organizational ambidexterity and performance, we find that positive and significant Organizational ambidexterity-performance relationships are to a large extent moderated by contextual factors and methodological choices: Organizational ambidexterity is particularly important for performance in nonmanufacturing industries and at higher levels of analysis. Also, the performance effects are stronger when "combined" measures of organizational ambidexterity and perceptual performance are used and when a cross-sectional or multimethod research design is applied. Our meta-analysis findings advance the field of organizational ambidexterity by revealing some of the moderators in the organizational ambidexterity-performance relationship, thereby providing a more fine-grained understanding of the effects of organizational ambidexterity on firm performance in prior studies. Our findings point to the gaps and methodological weaknesses in prior organizational ambidexterity research and propose avenues for future research.
Action modelling research for sociotechnical transitions
The low carbon transition in the UK building sector must make financial sense: a hybrid system dynamics bottom up modelling framework
In: (Proceedings) ISDC 2018, 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 6-10 August 2018, Reykjavík, Iceland. System Dynamics Society (2018) (In press)., Aug 1, 2018
The diffusion of wind propulsion technologies in shipping: an agent-based model

Environmental Innovation Societal Change, 2023
Transitions are processes of systemic change where niches peripheral to a sociotechnical regime a... more Transitions are processes of systemic change where niches peripheral to a sociotechnical regime accumulate momentum, scale up and eventually transform its core. In contrast to this dominant narrative in transitions research, infrastructure systems exhibit the reverse process as change propagates from the regime core to its periphery. We explore this under-researched process in the case of digitalization in UK construction. We analyse six UK megaprojects that span more than 30 years as a single longitudinal embedded case, and show how the adoption of digital technologies driven by regime incumbents, seeds the processes of technology adaptation, aggregation, and system transformation. The adoption of digital technologies by incumbents is necessary to cope with megaproject scale and scope. Their adaptation to technology instigates organizational level change that starts at the regime core, accumulates with each project and makes these changes ripple across the industry and transform it.
Energy supply/ demand policy asymmetry: A meta-narrative review for a systems explanation
Science Talks

Psychological fatigue can develop when an individual is engaged in an activity and experiences st... more Psychological fatigue can develop when an individual is engaged in an activity and experiences stress. The development of fatigue results in individual health and performance decline, and the individual may feel demotivated or disengage completely from the activity. To investigate fatigue development and ways to cope with it, Hockey’s motivation control theory of fatigue is formalised and explored with a system dynamics model. The model reproduces the three work management modes proposed in the theory: engaged, disengaged and strain. These simulation results support the internal validity of the theory and build confidence in the model. Further simulation results extend the theory and reveal two additional, distinct behavioural patterns, that capture two more strain work management modes. The exploration of ways to cope with fatigue development reveals that it can be suppressed in all three strain work management modes, if an individual takes regular breaks. These can be regular smal...
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Papers by George Papachristos
approaches and system dynamics. It outlines the conceptual link of these approaches to the main theoretical sustainability transitions frameworks and describes the extent to which the former are the source of insights that have been applied and have informed the latter. The chapter first explores how
systems thinking has informed our conceptualization of socio-technical systems and innovation systems. We then examine how complexity science and system dynamics approaches help us understand transition dynamics, particularly through concepts like path dependence, feedback loops, and emergent behaviour. Finally, we discuss and illustrate through specific case studies the practical application of these approaches in transition research and policy-making. By understanding systems approaches, researchers can better grasp how different elements of transitions interact and how these
interactions influence transition processes. For early career researchers, this chapter provides systems thinking tools for transitions analysis.
terms of balancing the policy effect and feasibility. The potential of CO2
reduction depends on both the diffusion rate of PT and the floor area of new buildings. Mandatory adoption is more effective than incentive-based
policies in reducing CO2 emissions.
energy systems. A systematic literature review of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) and the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) transition frameworks applications to developing countries identifies twenty-four categories of influential factors and produces four main inferences: (i) niche innovations and experiments that are often non-technological and are driven by urgent
local needs, remain understudied; (ii) landscape factors strongly shape the selection, development, and spread of innovations; (iii) regimes are multimodal, with co-existing, interconnected technologies, rules, structures, and roles, causing tensions; and (iv) innovation systems rely heavily on external sources, and they lack cohesive selection, monitoring, and assessment mechanisms. This review is followed by the case study constructed using academic literature, government and programme documents as well as interviews with key stakeholders. The in
ferences of the literature review are validated and additionally the role of the twenty-four categories of transition factors is examined. Key landscape, regime and innovation system function factors are found to play both a positive and negative role in the green transition. Landscape factors are the strongest drivers, but the most challenging barriers can be from other levels too. A cooperative governance model at local and regional levels, with maximal access to knowledge for redesigning of technologies to local conditions and continuous communication with key stakeholders and communities is essential for successful transition.
To encompass both the emotional and cognitive aspects of energy retrofit decisions, the authors developed a home-meanings framework around the concept of perezhivanie (emotional and cognitive experience). We backgrounded our theoretical construction by drawing upon current literature of home-meanings and empirical insights from: (i) eighteen case studies, in ten of which homeowners achieved significant carbon emission reductions through retrofit activities, while in eight they did not; (ii) a stakeholder workshop (n = 36), representing various actors interested to advance domestic energy retrofit activities in the UK, e.g. industry, government, academia, intermediaries.
We analysed the data to identify positive experiences associated with low-carbon dwellings. These experiences are organised in five themes: (i) control over one's environment; (ii) Health and well-being & Happiness in everyday life, (iii) Climate concerns & Caring identity, (iv) Financial considerations & Future-resilience; (v) a full integration between and individual and their environment. The authors developed a Home for the Common Future (HCF) heuristic, which captures three out of five identified themes (ii–iv). We suggest that the heuristic can be used for promoting the benefits of low-carbon dwellings.