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Credit Rating

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lightbulbAbout this topic
Credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of an individual, corporation, or government, typically expressed as a letter grade. It evaluates the likelihood of default on debt obligations based on financial history, current financial status, and economic conditions, influencing borrowing costs and access to capital.
lightbulbAbout this topic
Credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of an individual, corporation, or government, typically expressed as a letter grade. It evaluates the likelihood of default on debt obligations based on financial history, current financial status, and economic conditions, influencing borrowing costs and access to capital.

Key research themes

1. How do advanced machine learning methods improve credit risk prediction compared to traditional statistical models?

This theme focuses on the application and comparative evaluation of machine learning algorithms versus traditional statistical techniques for credit risk assessment. The objective is to enhance predictive accuracy and capture complex borrower behaviors while considering computational efficiency and interpretability, which are crucial for practical adoption and regulatory compliance.

Key finding: This study demonstrates that advanced machine learning models such as Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting Machines achieve higher predictive accuracy (0.88 and 0.87 respectively) compared to logistic regression (0.75). It... Read more
Key finding: The paper introduces a clustered support vector machine (CVSM) algorithm tailored for credit scoring that offers comparable accuracy to kernel-based SVMs but with significantly reduced computational complexity. CVSM... Read more
Key finding: Through empirical analysis on a Croatian bank dataset, neural networks (especially with probabilistic algorithms) outperform logistic regression and CART decision trees in small business credit scoring. The neural network... Read more
Key finding: This study finds that Artificial Neural Networks, compared with Random Forest and Decision Tree models, yield the highest balanced accuracy for credit card score prediction in imbalanced data settings. The results validate... Read more
Key finding: By mathematically formulating key machine learning classifiers and incorporating advanced optimization techniques like Particle Swarm Optimization, this research quantifies model performance improvements in credit score... Read more

2. What are effective methods for credit scorecard calibration to improve probabilistic risk estimates?

This theme investigates techniques to enhance the calibration of credit risk scorecards post-prediction. Calibration ensures that predicted default probabilities accurately reflect observed default rates, which is key for regulatory compliance and economic evaluation. The research assesses various recalibration approaches and their impact on forecast reliability without compromising discriminatory power.

Key finding: The study empirically evaluates multiple calibration methods applied to real-world credit score predictions from various classifiers. It finds that post-processing scorecard probabilities via calibrators, particularly... Read more
Key finding: This survey highlights the emerging shift from purely predicting default probabilities to estimating profit-driven metrics, implying a need for calibration approaches that dynamically adjust to economic conditions and profit... Read more
Key finding: The proposed two-stage credit scoring model integrates a cost-minimization framework that implicitly requires calibration to balance the costs of misclassification and information acquisition. By sequentially deciding on... Read more

3. How do credit rating changes and internal credit management practices impact corporate financing decisions and financial health?

This theme explores the dynamic relationship between credit ratings, internal ratings systems, working capital management, and corporate capital structure decisions. Understanding these linkages is critical for policymaking, credit risk management, and optimizing firms’ cost of capital, especially in emerging markets. The research evaluates how credit rating adjustments influence debt-equity choices and financial stability.

Key finding: Using semiannual data of top South African companies (2011-2020), the study finds that upgrades in credit rating positively influence firms to increase debt-to-asset ratios, while downgrades typically trigger capital... Read more
Key finding: Analyzing U.S. listed firms (1985–2017) with ordered probit models, the paper uncovers a concave (non-linear) relationship between working capital management components and credit ratings. Deviations from an optimal working... Read more
Key finding: The paper compares Bank Financial Strength Ratings (BFSR) and general credit ratings from two agencies, revealing that BFSRs are more conservative and decline faster during financial crises than credit ratings. The findings... Read more
Key finding: Evaluating internal rating-based (IRB) approaches per Basel Committee guidelines, this research highlights how banks' internally assessed Probability of Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Exposure at Default (EAD)... Read more
Key finding: This sectoral analysis of major Indian companies using financial ratios demonstrates that strong credit performance, including liquidity and profitability metrics, correlates positively with financial health, investment... Read more

4. What are the regulatory and ethical challenges associated with algorithmic credit scoring in emerging markets?

This theme addresses the legal, ethical, and regulatory implications arising from the deployment of algorithmic credit scoring (ACS) powered by AI and big data. It focuses on transparency, fairness, data privacy, and consumer protection challenges faced in emerging Southeast Asian economies, with a detailed case study on Vietnam providing insights for policy formulation and regulatory frameworks.

Key finding: The paper identifies significant regulatory gaps in Vietnam regarding ACS governance, including data privacy inadequacies, lack of AI ethical guidelines, and opaque scoring methodologies. It highlights risks such as bias,... Read more
Key finding: This study demonstrates that integrating ESG factors into credit rating models enhances sustainability considerations but poses challenges related to data standardization, predictive accuracy, fairness, and explainability. It... Read more
Key finding: The research develops a factor clustering methodology to improve credit scoring models for SMEs in P2P lending platforms, addressing information asymmetry and heterogeneity in borrower profiles. The findings suggest that... Read more
Key finding: The study critically examines the systemic and cultural biases of international credit rating agencies (CRAs) against emerging economies, especially India, highlighting opacity, subjectivity, and methodological flaws. It... Read more

All papers in Credit Rating

In this paper we deal with determination of chosen characteristics of vending business in the Czech Republic. Vending seems to be dynamically developing sector of economics. A strong competition is present in this market. This can be a... more
The distinct nature of SMEs makes the structuring and pricing of SME CDO products particularly difficult. First of all, SMEs are publicly unrated causing information asymmetries and moral hazard complexities within the SME CDO market.
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Credit rating risks have become the backbone of bank performance. They are the reflection of the current status of the bank and the milestone for future planning. A good credit assessment can better anticipate expected losses and will... more
Purpose - The objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between the credit information sharing and the funding cost of banks of the top ten “AA rating” commercial banks of Pakistan as the Commercial banks also play a... more
for excellent comments and to Minye Zhang, Dawei Tian and Huanghai Li for outstanding research assistance. The authors also thank seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Board, UCLA, George Washington University, and the 2009 AEA... more
In the article the ratings developed by Moody's Corporation, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and financial data of Polish windows manufactures were analyzed. Ratings published by international agencies were compared with an... more
Disclaimer: The views herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Banco de la Republica or its Board of Directors.
Öz Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının verdiği ülke kredi notları ülkeler arasındaki fon akımlarının yönünü belirlemede önemli bir görev üstlenmektedir. Özellikle yeni sanayileşen ülkeler gelişimi sürdürülebilir hale getirmek... more
for help in providing us with the sovereign credit rating data. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem, the OECD or its member countries.
This paper analyses the through-the-cycle rating concept; basically, we try to specify its main characteristics, focusing on the differences with point-in-time ratings. We also discuss the effects of this methodology on the prediction... more
The participation of the private sector in the provision of infrastructure is now a fundamental element of discourse around state modernization especially in the face of fiscal crisis. This paper examines the dialogue against the backdrop... more
Various statistics-based machine learning techniques have been employed for this task. "Curse of Dimensionality" is still a significant challenge in machine learning techniques. Some research has been carried out on Feature Selection (FS)... more
V času gospodarskih nihanj in finančne negotovosti se podjetja lahko znajdejo v resnih težavah z likvidnostjo. Ena izmed zelo pogostih in velikokrat tudi zaskrbljujočih tem v takih okoliščinah je insolventnost – stanje, ko dolžnik več ne... more
Al fine di individuare le possibili vie di sviluppo degli strumenti utilizzabili per misurare, gestire e controllare il rischio di credito si è tentato di definire i contorni di un approccio integrato che tenga conto delle principali... more
Purpose-An in-depth understanding of the credit channel of monetary policy (MP) is crucial because interbank rates influence bank funding choices. This study examines the relative roles of dual banking systems, comprising Islamic banks... more
The aim of this study is to analyze the overall performance of the main sectors operating in Borsa Istanbul based on financial ratios and to compare their financial success levels. The financial performance of the sectors was evaluated... more
by Bo Li
In recent years, Chinese housing policies have been shifting from encouraging homeownership toward developing the private rented sector, especially in the superstar cities. Nevertheless, what are the target groups and characteristics of... more
The advancement of their risk management activities makes it profi table for major banks to rely on internal credit ratings to calculate Basel II capital requirements (IRB approach). Firms and, more generally, market participants would... more
by H. Hau
We test if issuers of asset-and mortgage-backed securities receive rating favors from agencies with which they maintain strong business relationships. Controlling for issuer fixed effects and a large set of credit risk determinants, we... more
Starting in 2014 with the implementation of the European Commission Capital Requirement Directive, banks operating in the Euro area were benefiting from a 25% reduction (the Supporting Factor or "SF" hereafter) in their own funds... more
This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the impact offuel price and tax changes on the general price level and the distribution of income and applies a model to Thailand using data for 1975-76 and 1981-82. Because the model... more
Investing is a important thing in a capital market. Bond investment must be noticed the risk especially credit risk. From the information of credit risk, investor can choose the right investment. Credit Metrics is a reduced form model to... more
Investing is a important thing in a capital market. Bond investment must be noticed the risk especially credit risk. From the information of credit risk, investor can choose the right investment. Credit Metrics is a reduced form model to... more
Credit-scoring becomes increasingly important in poor economies and recessions. Decreasing liquidity due to reduced access to both money and debt markets has induced banks to impose restrictions on offering credit, including credit for... more
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations... more
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations... more
We propose an evaluation method for financial assets subject to default risk, when investors face imperfect information about the state variable triggering the default. The model we propose generalizes the one by in the following way: (i)... more
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine whether external debt procurements during the military and civilian regimes had a correlation with infrastructural developments using available data from... more
During the 1980's, theories were developed to explain the striking correlation between real exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI). However, this relationship broke down for Japanese FDI in the 1990's, as the real... more
A transition matrix P is said to be embeddable if it has a generator matrix Q such that P =exp (Q) If the approximated transition matrix P is embeddable, then the estimator Q can be got for the generator matrix Q. What of cases when P is... more
Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) can be used to model the occurrence of defaults in a loan or bond portfolio. In this paper, we used a Bernoulli mixture model, a type of GLMMs, to model the dependency of default events. We... more
Credit quality changes need to be analysed from time to time. A good model for analysis needs to determine the Capital and reserves needed to support Credit Instruments portfolios as well as individual Credits. Conditions under which the... more
In many applications of Risk Management nature, Credit Migration Matrices or Transitional matrices are the main Cardinal inputs and the accuracy of their estimation is very critical. Three approaches namely Cohort, time homogeneous, non... more
At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been... more
I develop methods that produce consistent estimates of the Vasicek-Basel IRB (VAIRB) credit risk model parameters. I apply these methods to Moody's data on corporate defaults over the period 1920-2008 and assess the model fit and... more
This study examines the existing credit rating methodology proposed in the literature to explore the development of a new credit rating model based on the financial variables of the enterprise. The focus is on the period after the... more
In regulatory and competitive environments increasingly tight, banks have been forced to constantly improve their internal rating models. Despite the increased supply models and statistical approaches that has been proposed to them, the... more
This research investigates the partial and simultaneous the influence of leverage, profitability, credit rating on risk disclosure. This research involved thirteen public banks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2014-2019. Risk disclosure... more
This study examined the challenges confronting the operators of private primary and secondary schools in Awka South Local Government Area of Anambra State. Three specific purposes, three research questions and three hypotheses guided the... more
How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a... more
Education tremendously impacts a woman's capacity to build relationships with others. Pakistan has one of the lowest schooling rates in South Asia, which limits its human resources and makes reforming the country more difficult.... more
When pricing OTC contracts in the presence of additional risk factors and costs, such as credit risk and funding and collateral costs, the starting “clean price” is modified additively by valuation adjustments (XVAs) that account for each... more
We develop a consistent, arbitrage-free framework for valuing derivative trades with collateral, counterparty credit risk, and funding costs. Credit, debit, liquidity, and funding valuation adjustments (CVA, DVA, LVA, and FVA) are simply... more
We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term... more
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi dan mengungkapkan faktor-faktor atau dimensi yang menyebabkan rumah tangga untuk berutang dengan metode dan studi literatur yang dideskripsikan secara deskriptif dan terkait dengan... more
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