Climate Patterns

Piracicaba, localizada no interior do estado de São Paulo, foi palco de dois eventos significativos de vento intenso em um curto intervalo de tempo: o vendaval de 3 de novembro de 2023 e o de 24 de agosto de 2024. Este estudo tem como objetivo realizar uma análise comparativa detalhada entre esses dois eventos, focando nas semelhanças e diferenças nas características atmosféricas, impactos e causas possíveis. A pesquisa foi conduzida a partir da análise de dados meteorológicos históricos, registros de estações meteorológicas e relatos de moradores locais. O estudo visa proporcionar uma compreensão mais profunda dos fatores que influenciam a formação e evolução desses fenômenos, bem como avaliar sua frequência e intensidade em comparação com eventos passados. Ambos os vendavais apresentaram características atmosféricas similares, como a formação a partir de linhas de instabilidade associadas a frentes frias, mas diferiram em intensidade e impactos, com o evento de novembro apresentando rajadas de vento mais fortes e menos danos pessoais em comparação ao de agosto, que resultou em três ferimentos.


  Piracicaba, a city located in the interior of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, was the site of two significant wind events in a short period of time: the windstorm on November 3, 2023, and the one on August 24, 2024. This study aims to conduct a detailed comparative analysis between these two events, focusing on the similarities and differences in atmospheric characteristics, impacts, and possible causes. The research was carried out based on the analysis of historical meteorological data, weather station records, and reports from local residents. The study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the factors influencing the formation and evolution of these phenomena, as well as assess their frequency and intensity compared to past events. Both windstorms exhibited similar atmospheric characteristics, such as formation from squall lines associated with cold fronts, but differed in intensity and impacts, with the November event having stronger wind gusts and fewer personal impacts compared to the August event, which resulted in three injuries.

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. (IPCC 2007) Adaptation deficit: The difference between the optimal amount of adaptation to current climate variability and the amount of adaptation that has actually occurred. Adaptive management: A resource management approach where decisions are updated iteratively as new information becomes available. Agroclimatic zone: A land unit, in terms of major climate and growing period, that is climatically suitable for a certain range of crops and cultivars. (FAO 1983) Anticipatory adaptation: Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. (IPCC 2007) Basis risk: The difference between an index and the risk being insured against that index. For example, the risk that there will be rain at a weather station index but not on an insured farmer's land. [See index insurance.] Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO): A contingent credit mechanism offered by the World Bank to International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)-eligible countries. Climate-proofing: Actions taken in the design of a project or program to reduce its vulnerability to climate-related risks, including climate change. Does not imply complete elimination of risks. Climate Smart Agriculture: Agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces or removes greenhouse gases (mitigation) while also enhancing the achievement of national food security and development goals. (FAO 1983) GLOSSARY viii Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, statistics of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. (IPCC 2007) Current climate variability: The level of climate variability encountered under present-day conditions, as opposed to under future conditions. Climate change: A change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (as defined in the UNFCCC, Article 1) Disaster risk management: Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being, quality of life, resilience, and sustainable development. (IPCC 2012) Disaster response: Actions taken in the aftermath of a disaster to ameliorate the impacts of the disaster, potentially including reconstruction efforts. Disaster risk reduction: Actions taken before a disaster designed to reduce the probability of a disaster from happening or to reduce the damage from a disaster should one occur. Downscaling: A method that derives local-to regional-scale (10 to 100 kilometer) information from larger-scale models or data analyses. (IPCC 2007) Exposure: The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate change effects.(IPCC 2012) Evapotranspiration: The transfer of water into the atmosphere via evaporation and plant transpiration. Global Climate Model or General Circulation Model: A mathematical climate model that includes atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Hard risk reduction: Risk reduction undertaken through traditional physical engineering approaches, such as dikes, seawalls, and drains. GLOSSARY ix Hydromet systems: Hydrometeorological systems for recording and analyzing data on hydrology and meteorology, such as river flows, precipitation, and temperature. Hyogo Framework for Action: A global action plan for reducing disaster losses, adopted at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction. Index insurance: A form of insurance where payouts are conditioned on an external observable index measure, such as the amount of rain at a particular weather station over a specified period. Mainstreaming: The process of integrating climate risks and adaptation issues into traditional sectoral development and investment practice. Maladaptation: Any changes in natural or human systems that inadvertently increase vulnerability to climatic stimuli; an adaptation that does not succeed in reducing vulnerability, but increases it instead. (McCarthy, Canziani and others 2001) Mitigation: (1) reduction in the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (2) when used in the context of climate risks, refers to mitigation of risks. No-regret actions/Low-regret actions: Actions that provide net benefits under current climatic conditions and under possible future climate conditions. Low-regret actions may not provide net benefits under some possible but unlikely future climate conditions. Resilience: The ability of a system to resist shocks, particularly climate shocks. Robust actions: A synonym for no-regret/low-regret actions. Robust decision making: A decision-making technique that emphasizes reducing the potential for regret by selecting options that perform well over a large set of possible future scenarios. Safety net: A social program designed to provide cash or non-cash benefits to those affected by negative shocks. xv Statement of the External Advisory Panel Climate change and climate variability poses big risks, but also opportunities, for development. If unchecked, in some cases, climate change could reverse many of the development achievements of recent decades. Preparing to manage and reduce climate risks is therefore an essential part of development in the 21st century. Highlights Adaptation to climate variability-such as floods, storms, and droughts-is an old and unfinished agenda. It overlaps partially with a newer agenda, adaptation to climate change. Climate change involves both intensification of existing climate variability and the emergence of wholly new challenges, such as sea level rise. This evaluation draws lessons from World Bank Group experience with both forms of adaptation. The Bank Group's "Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (FY09-11)," ushered in a substantial increase in attention to climate adaptation in country and regional strategies, in analytic work, and in funding for integrated national-level investment plans. Three pioneering projects, initiated before the Strategic Framework, provide lessons for this new batch of efforts: the importance of focusing, initially, on a few critical issues; of combining action with planning; and of placing responsibility for climate change coordination with a powerful agency. These projects, along with most country strategies, focus strongly on adaptation to climate variability even where severe long-term climate change impacts loom. Climate variability and poverty are acute in areas of rainfed agriculture. Some evidence suggests that sustainable land and watershed management projects have boosted incomes in such areas. Resilience benefits are presumed, but must be verified, as there are examples of maladaptive impacts-as when inappropriate afforestation depletes groundwater. There has been some success with drought mitigation and relief projects, but weather index insurance for households has not yet fulfilled hopes that it could be a major risk management tool. In irrigated areas, new techniques for monitoring actual water consumption may provide a tool for institutions to manage water-critical, since irrigation accounts for 86 percent of human water use, and water stress will increase.

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. (IPCC 2007) Adaptation deficit: The difference between the optimal amount of adaptation to current climate variability and the amount of adaptation that has actually occurred. Adaptive management: A resource management approach where decisions are updated iteratively as new information becomes available. Agroclimatic zone: A land unit, in terms of major climate and growing period, that is climatically suitable for a certain range of crops and cultivars. (FAO 1983) Anticipatory adaptation: Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. (IPCC 2007) Basis risk: The difference between an index and the risk being insured against that index. For example, the risk that there will be rain at a weather station index but not on an insured farmer's land. [See index insurance.] Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO): A contingent credit mechanism offered by the World Bank to International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)-eligible countries. Climate-proofing: Actions taken in the design of a project or program to reduce its vulnerability to climate-related risks, including climate change. Does not imply complete elimination of risks. Climate Smart Agriculture: Agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces or removes greenhouse gases (mitigation) while also enhancing the achievement of national food security and development goals. (FAO 1983) GLOSSARY viii Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, statistics of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. (IPCC 2007) Current climate variability: The level of climate variability encountered under present-day conditions, as opposed to under future conditions. Climate change: A change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. (as defined in the UNFCCC, Article 1) Disaster risk management: Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being, quality of life, resilience, and sustainable development. (IPCC 2012) Disaster response: Actions taken in the aftermath of a disaster to ameliorate the impacts of the disaster, potentially including reconstruction efforts. Disaster risk reduction: Actions taken before a disaster designed to reduce the probability of a disaster from happening or to reduce the damage from a disaster should one occur. Downscaling: A method that derives local-to regional-scale (10 to 100 kilometer) information from larger-scale models or data analyses. (IPCC 2007) Exposure: The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate change effects.(IPCC 2012) Evapotranspiration: The transfer of water into the atmosphere via evaporation and plant transpiration. Global Climate Model or General Circulation Model: A mathematical climate model that includes atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Hard risk reduction: Risk reduction undertaken through traditional physical engineering approaches, such as dikes, seawalls, and drains. GLOSSARY ix Hydromet systems: Hydrometeorological systems for recording and analyzing data on hydrology and meteorology, such as river flows, precipitation, and temperature. Hyogo Framework for Action: A global action plan for reducing disaster losses, adopted at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction. Index insurance: A form of insurance where payouts are conditioned on an external observable index measure, such as the amount of rain at a particular weather station over a specified period. Mainstreaming: The process of integrating climate risks and adaptation issues into traditional sectoral development and investment practice. Maladaptation: Any changes in natural or human systems that inadvertently increase vulnerability to climatic stimuli; an adaptation that does not succeed in reducing vulnerability, but increases it instead. (McCarthy, Canziani and others 2001) Mitigation: (1) reduction in the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (2) when used in the context of climate risks, refers to mitigation of risks. No-regret actions/Low-regret actions: Actions that provide net benefits under current climatic conditions and under possible future climate conditions. Low-regret actions may not provide net benefits under some possible but unlikely future climate conditions. Resilience: The ability of a system to resist shocks, particularly climate shocks. Robust actions: A synonym for no-regret/low-regret actions. Robust decision making: A decision-making technique that emphasizes reducing the potential for regret by selecting options that perform well over a large set of possible future scenarios. Safety net: A social program designed to provide cash or non-cash benefits to those affected by negative shocks. xv Statement of the External Advisory Panel Climate change and climate variability poses big risks, but also opportunities, for development. If unchecked, in some cases, climate change could reverse many of the development achievements of recent decades. Preparing to manage and reduce climate risks is therefore an essential part of development in the 21st century. Highlights Adaptation to climate variability-such as floods, storms, and droughts-is an old and unfinished agenda. It overlaps partially with a newer agenda, adaptation to climate change. Climate change involves both intensification of existing climate variability and the emergence of wholly new challenges, such as sea level rise. This evaluation draws lessons from World Bank Group experience with both forms of adaptation. The Bank Group's "Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (FY09-11)," ushered in a substantial increase in attention to climate adaptation in country and regional strategies, in analytic work, and in funding for integrated national-level investment plans. Three pioneering projects, initiated before the Strategic Framework, provide lessons for this new batch of efforts: the importance of focusing, initially, on a few critical issues; of combining action with planning; and of placing responsibility for climate change coordination with a powerful agency. These projects, along with most country strategies, focus strongly on adaptation to climate variability even where severe long-term climate change impacts loom. Climate variability and poverty are acute in areas of rainfed agriculture. Some evidence suggests that sustainable land and watershed management projects have boosted incomes in such areas. Resilience benefits are presumed, but must be verified, as there are examples of maladaptive impacts-as when inappropriate afforestation depletes groundwater. There has been some success with drought mitigation and relief projects, but weather index insurance for households has not yet fulfilled hopes that it could be a major risk management tool. In irrigated areas, new techniques for monitoring actual water consumption may provide a tool for institutions to manage water-critical, since irrigation accounts for 86 percent of human water use, and water stress will increase.

This article represents the second report by an ASCE Task Committee "Infrastructure Impacts of Landscape-driven Weather Change" under the ASCE Watershed Management Technical Committee and the ASCE Hydroclimate Technical Committee. Herein, the 'infrastructure impacts" are referred to as infrastructure-sensitive changes in weather and climate patterns (extremes and non-extremes) that are modulated, among other factors, by changes in landscape, land use and land cover change. In this first report, the article argued for explicitly considering the well-established feedbacks triggered by infrastructure systems to the land-atmosphere system via landscape change. In this report by the ASCE Task Committee (TC), we present the results of this ASCE TC's survey of a cross section of experienced water managers using a set of carefully crafted questions. These questions covered water resources management, infrastructure resiliency and recommendations for inclusion in educa...

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration (P E) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of (P E) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

Groundwater is a major source of drinking water worldwide, often considered more reliable than surface water and more accessible. Nowadays, there is wide recognition by the scientific community that groundwater resources are under threat from overexploitation and pollution. Furthermore, frequent and prolonged drought periods due to climate change can seriously affect groundwater recharge. For an appropriate and sustainable management of water systems supplied by springs and/or groundwater withdrawn from aquifers through drilling wells or drainage galleries, the need arises to properly quantify groundwater resources availability, mainly at the monthly scale, as groundwater recharge is influenced by seasonality, especially in the Mediterranean areas. Such evaluation is particularly important for ungauged groundwater bodies. This is the case of the aquifer supplying the Santissima Aqueduct, the oldest water supply infrastructure of the city of Messina in Sicily (Southern Italy), whose ...

Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration (P E) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of (P E) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration ) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of ( P E ) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

The dynamics of the underground part of the water cycle greatly influence the features and characteristics of the Earth’s surface. Using Tóth’s theory of groundwater flow systems, surface indicators in Mexico were analyzed to understand the systemic connection between groundwater and the geological framework, relief, soil, water bodies, vegetation, and climate. Recharge and discharge zones of regional groundwater flow systems were identified from evidence on the ground surface. A systematic hydrogeological analysis was made of regional surface indicators, published in official, freely accessible cartographic information at scales of 1:250,000 and 1:1,000,000. From this analysis, six maps of Mexico were generated, titled “Permanent water on the surface”, “Groundwater depth”, “Hydrogeological association of soils”, “Hydrogeological association of vegetation and land use”, “Hydrogeological association of topoforms”, and “Superficial evidence of the presence of groundwater flow systems”...

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration (P E) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of (P E) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components.

Mind mapping merupakan teknis grafis yang berguna menyeimbangkan proses pengajaran dalam pendidikan dengan cara kerja alami otak. Mind mapping dalam pembuatannya terkait oleh otak kiri dan kanan, hingga menimbulkan rasa yang menyenangkan karena melibatkan otak kanan, dan mind mapping merupakan cara yang efektif juga efisien untuk merangkum, menyimpulkan, dan menyalurkan data dari otak. Maka dari itu pemaksimalan metode mind mapping di dunia pendidikan sangat berguna. Dalam membuat suatu karya sastra banyak yang kebingungan untuk memulainya. Disini saya mengambil satu karya sastra yaitu puisi. Memaksimalkan metode mind mapping dalam menulis puisi mampu mengarahkan siswa untuk berkreativitas dan dapat mengingat tata cara menulis puisi hingga mampu menulis puisi dengan mudah dan inovatif.

Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections, it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates. The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity. However, better process understanding and model agreement in specific regions provide medium confidence that precipitation will be more extreme near the centres of tropical cyclones making landfall in North and Central America; East Africa; West, East, South and Southeast Asia as well as in Australia and many Pacific islands. Improvements in model resolution and downscaling techniques increase confidence in projections of intense storms, and the frequency of the most intense storms will more likely than not increase substantially in some basins.

The dynamics of the underground part of the water cycle greatly influence the features and characteristics of the Earth’s surface. Using Tóth’s theory of groundwater flow systems, surface indicators in Mexico were analyzed to understand the systemic connection between groundwater and the geological framework, relief, soil, water bodies, vegetation, and climate. Recharge and discharge zones of regional groundwater flow systems were identified from evidence on the ground surface. A systematic hydrogeological analysis was made of regional surface indicators, published in official, freely accessible cartographic information at scales of 1:250,000 and 1:1,000,000. From this analysis, six maps of Mexico were generated, titled “Permanent water on the surface”, “Groundwater depth”, “Hydrogeological association of soils”, “Hydrogeological association of vegetation and land use”, “Hydrogeological association of topoforms”, and “Superficial evidence of the presence of groundwater flow systems”...

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration ) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of ( P E ) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

Rainfed agricultural systems have become more vulnerable to climate change due to their significant dependence on natural precipitation. Drastic changes in precipitation, superimposed with anthropogenic activities, including land use land cover change, can modify the hydrologic response, especially in agricultural watersheds. In this study, Fisher Information and cumulative sum charts (CUMSUM) methods were applied to detect the hydrologic regime shifts in six watersheds in Illinois, USA. The regime shift analysis identified shifts in streamflow regime in three agricultural watersheds, mainly around the 1970s; whereas, no significant change in streamflow was observed for forest-dominated watersheds. Furthermore, the Budyko framework was used to determine the relative contribution in streamflow alterations (i.e., regime shifts in streamflow) for the agricultural watersheds, which evidenced significant shifts in streamflow. The Budyko analysis inferred that alterations in streamflow co...

Alang is a sub-watershed emptying into the Gajah Mungkur Reservoir in Wonogiri, Central Java Indonesia, with an area of 51.01 km 2 and lithology composed of Baturetno Formation and Wonosari Formation. Baseflow is a major component of river flow during the dry season. Hence, the characterization of its recession becomes necessary, and it can be performed with innovation in baseflow hydrological modeling, that is, the recession curve. This study was designed to describe the distinctive features of baseflow recession using a linear reservoir model, which is depicted in individual and master recession curves. The baseflow recession in AlangSubwatershed was represented by a combination of varying initial recession discharge (Q0), α, and recession constants (Krb). The individual recession curves were typified by Q0=0.19-9.11, α= 0.089-0.243, and Krb=0.7843-0.9148. As for the master recession curve, it had Q0=9.99, α=0.085, and Krb=0.928. These results signify a sloping recession curve, me...

Climate change governance poses difficult challenges for contemporary political/administrative systems. These systems evolved to handle other sorts of problems and must now be adapted to handle emerging issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper examines long-term climate governance, particularly in relation to overcoming"institutional inertia"that hampers the development of an effective and timely response. It argues that when the influence of groups that fear adverse consequences of mitigation policies is combined with scientific uncertainty, the complexity of reaching global agreements, and long time frames, the natural tendency is for governments to delay action, to seek to avoid antagonizing influential groups, and to adopt less ambitious climate programs. Conflicts of power and interest are inevitable in relation to climate change policy. To address climate change means altering the way things are being done today - especially in terms of producti...

Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

The reliability of hydrological response simulated by distributed hydrological models in river basins with complex topographies strictly relies on the adopted digital elevation model (DEM) resolution. Furthermore, when the objective is to investigate hydrologic processes over a longer period, including both wet and dry conditions, the choice of a proper model for estimating actual evapotranspiration can play a key role in water resources assessment. When dealing with groundwater-fed catchment, these aspects directly reflect on water balance simulations and consequentially on groundwater resource quantification, which is fundamental for effective water resources planning and management at the river basin scale. In the present study, a DEM-based inverse hydrogeological balance method is applied to estimate the active mean annual recharge of the northern Etna groundwater system within the upstream part of the Alcantara river basin in Sicily region (Italy). Despite this area representin...

Climate change and anthropogenic activity are the main factors impacting the hydrological environment. For sustainable water utilization, identifying the impact contribution of these two factors on the streamflow variations is an important topic in recent research. In this study, seven river basins in southern Taiwan were selected as the study area to evaluate the annual streamflow from 1980 to 2017. The decomposition and elasticity methods based on the Budyko hypothesis were applied to quantify the contribution of climate and anthropogenic factors to the streamflow variations. In addition, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to represent the actual situation of land cover and verify the parameters in the Budyko equation. The two quantitative methods consistently demonstrated that the streamflow variations from pre- to post-period occurred due to the climate factor. The elasticity coefficient of variables demonstrated that the streamflow change is more sensiti...

Environmentally and socially sustainable policies are essential for good governance. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the key tool for integrating environmental considerations into policies, programs, and plans. This edited book focuses on SEA applied to policies. Through lessons learned from previous use of SEA on policies, it draws lessons on the strengths and weaknesses of current SEA methodology. It then goes on to analyze how policies are formulated and implemented and proposes a new conceptual framework for conducting SEA of policies that potentially could be more useful in influencing decision makers to integrate environmental sustainability considerations into policy formulation and implementation. E nvironmental sustainabilty is fundamental to sustainable development. Launched in 2007, this new series covers current and emerging issues in order to promote debate and broaden the understanding of environmental challenges as integral to equitable and sustained economic growth. Drawing on analysis and practical experience from across the World Bank and client countries, the books in this series will be central to the implementation of the World Bank's Environment Strategy and relevant to the development community, policy makers, and academia. A NEW WORLD BANK SERIES Poverty and the Environment-Understanding Linkages at the Household Level Drawing upon recent analytical work prepared inside and outside the World Bank, this report identifies key lessons concerning the linkages between poverty and the environment. With a focus on the contribution of environmental resources to household welfare, the analysis increases our understanding of how specific reforms and interventions can have an impact on the health and livelihoods of poor people.

Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

The prediction of long term water balance components is not a trivial issue, even when empirical Budyko’s type approaches are used, because parameter estimation is often hampered by missing or poor hydrological data. In order to overcome this issue, we provided regression equations that link climate, morphological, and vegetation parameters to Fu’s parameter. Climate is here defined as a specific seasonal pattern of potential evapotranspiration and rain: five climatic scenarios have been considered to mimic different conditions worldwide. A weather generator has been used to create stochastic time series for the related climatic scenario, which in turn has been used as an input to a conceptual hydrological model to obtain long-term water balance components with low computational effort, while preserving fundamental process descriptions. The morphology and vegetation’s role in determining water partitioning process has been epitomized in four parameters of the conceptual model. Numer...

The dynamics of the underground part of the water cycle greatly influence the features and characteristics of the Earth's surface. Using Tóth's theory of groundwater flow systems, surface indicators in Mexico were analyzed to understand the systemic connection between groundwater and the geological framework, relief, soil, water bodies, vegetation, and climate. Recharge and discharge zones of regional groundwater flow systems were identified from evidence on the ground surface. A systematic hydrogeological analysis was made of regional surface indicators, published in official, freely accessible cartographic information at scales of 1:250,000 and 1:1,000,000. From this analysis, six maps of Mexico were generated, titled "Permanent water on the surface", "Groundwater depth", "Hydrogeological association of soils", "Hydrogeological association of vegetation and land use", "Hydrogeological association of topoforms", and "Superficial evidence of the presence of groundwater flow systems". Mexico's hydrogeological features were produced. The results show that 30% of Mexico is considered to be discharge zones of groundwater flow systems (regional, intermediate, and recharge). Natural recharge processes occur naturally in 57% of the country. This work is the first holistic analysis of groundwater in Mexico carried out at a national-regional scale using only the official information available to the public. These results can be used as the basis for more detailed studies on groundwater and its interaction with the environment, as well as for the development of integrative planning tools to ensure the sustainability of ecosystems and satisfy human needs.

In this work we analyze the high-resolution climate change signal over Mexico as a function of the global mean temperature using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems. The geographical array of Fuzzy Inference Systems are presented as warming patterns that were used to project the temperature trend over Mexico under the four Representative Concentration Pathways. From this, it is observed that largest temperature increment displays in the northwestern region, being the RCP8.5 scenario the one with the highest temperature variation. Also, it is presented a region where the internal climatic variability impedes certainty in the warming projections. These results pretend to serve as an analysis tool of potential impacts of regional warming over Mexico, and lead to the generation and improvement of adaptation and mitigation strategies in climate change matter.

The solution of many practical water problems is strictly connected to the availability of reliable and widespread information about runoff. The estimation of mean annual runoff and its interannual variability for any basin over a wide region, even if ungauged, would be fundamental for both water resources assessment and planning and for water quality analysis. Starting from these premises, the main aim of this work is to show a new approach, based on the Budyko's framework, for mapping the mean annual surface runoff and deriving the probability distribution of the annual runoff in arid and semiarid watersheds. As a case study, the entire island of Sicily, Italy, is here proposed. First, time series data of annual rainfall, runoff, and reconstructed series of potential evapotranspiration have been combined within the Budyko's curve framework to obtain regional rules for rainfall partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff. Then this knowledge has been used to infer long‐term annual runoff at the point scale by means of interpolated rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. The long‐term annual runoff raster layer has been obtained at each pixel of the drainage network, averaging the upstream runoff using advanced spatial analysis techniques within a GIS environment. Furthermore, 2 alternative methods are here proposed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible interannual variations of basin water storage. The first method uses Monte Carlo simulations, combining rainfall and potential evapotranspiration randomly extracted from independent distributions. The second method is based on a simplification of the Budyko's curve and analytically provides the annual runoff distribution as the derived distribution of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Results are very encouraging: long‐term annual runoff and its distribution have been derived and compared with historical records at several gauged stations, obtaining satisfactory matching.

Climate change is expected to result in larger temperature increases (anomalies) at high altitudes compared with surrounding lowlands. In the Andes, this may lead to the accelerated retreat of tropical glaciers, the drying of unique neotropical highmountain wetland ecosystems locally known as páramos or bofedales, as well as increased weather variability and weather extremes, all of which will aff ect water regulation. In turn, these impacts may aff ect ecosystem integrity and the economics of power and water supply in the region. Peru is one of the countries that could be aff ected by these changes: it relies on its mountain basins for the provision of over 50 percent of its power, and discharges from upper basins feed water supply and agricultural systems. The objective of the study is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. Having access to an...

1] Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with largescale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

One of the challenges faced by subwatershed hydrology is the discovery of patterns associated with climate and landscape variability with the available data. This study has three objectives: (1) to evaluate the annual recession curves; (2) to relate the recession parameter (RP) with physiographic characteristics of 21 Mexican subwatersheds in different climate regions; and (3) to formulate a Baseflow (BF) model based on a top-down approach. The RP was calibrated utilizing the largest magnitude curves. The RP was related to topographical, climate and soil variables. A non-linear model was employed to separate the baseflow which considers RP as a recharge rate. Our results show that RP increases with longitude and decreases with latitude. RP displayed a sustained non-linear behavior determined by precipitation rate and evapotranspiration (P E) over years and subwatersheds. The model was fit to a parameter concurrent with invariance and space-time symmetry conditions. The dispersion of our model was associated with the product of (P E) by the aquifer's transmissivity. We put forward a generalized baseflow model, which made the discrimination of baseflow from direct flow in subwatersheds possible. The proposed model involves the recharge-storage-discharge relation and could be implemented in basins where there are no suitable ground-based data.

1] Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with largescale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

The present study concerns the impact of a change in the rainfall regime on surface and groundwater resources in an experimental watershed. The research is conducted in a gauged mountainous watershed (15.18 km 2 ) that is located on the eastern side of Penteli Mountain, in the prefecture of Attica, Greece and the study period concerns the years from 2003 to 2008. The decrease in the annual rainfall depth during the last two hydrological years [2006][2007][2007][2008] is 10% and 35%, respectively, in relation to the average of the previous years. In addition, the monthly distribution of rainfall is characterized by a distinct decrease in winter rainfall volume. The field measurements show that this change in rainfall conditions has a direct impact on the surface runoff of the watershed, as well as on the groundwater reserves. The mean annual runoff in the last two hydrological years has decreased by 56% and 75% in relation to the average of the previous years. Moreover, the groundwater level follows a declining trend and has dropped significantly in the last two years.