Bioclimatic analysis

""also see www.sunwindlight.net

How to design buildings that heat with the sun, cool with the wind, light with the sky, and move into the future using on-site renewable resources

Developed for rapid use during schematic design, this book clarifies relationships between form and energy and gives designers tools for designing sustainably. It also:

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* building groups, individual buildings, and building parts
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Features:
* 109 analysis techniques and design strategies
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* Both inch-pound and metric units""

Vernacular architecture is the result of hundreds of years of optimization to provide a comfortable shelter in a local climate using available materials and known construction technologies. Due to the absence of mechanical means, traditional buildings use solar passive measures to achieve thermal comfort conditions.

The Bioclimatic Analysis Tool (BAT) is an informatics tool for climatic and bioclimatic analysis of a place. It is designed to reduce the consumption of resources during the development of the analysis. The tool has been programmed in VBA for Microsoft Excel® so that its interface is known. The main objective of the BAT is to group the different climatic and bioclimatic charts that allow correct interpretation of climate and bioclimatic requirements of a place. The BAT has been designed in five sections and 27 spreadsheets: it is calculated and updated automatically by editing only two spreadsheets. Tool’s first version was presented at the ISES Solar World Congress 2013, version 05 is shown in this publication.

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 2: Antecedentes (marco teórico y estado del arte)" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

The aim of this paper is to present the bioclimatic analysis tool (BAT), developed by the authors to facilitate the analysis of the climatic elements and factors involved in the bioclimatic design, from which the convenient design strategies, according to the climatic conditions of the site, may be derived.

Resumen.
El objetivo del presente artículo es dar a conocer la herramienta de análisis bioclimático (BAT), desarrollada por los autores con el fin de facilitar el análisis de los elementos y factores climáticos que intervienen en el diseño bioclimático, a partir del cual se podrán derivar las estrategias de diseño más convenientes de acuerdo a las condiciones climáticas del sitio de estudio.

The Bioclimatic Analysis Tool is a spreadsheet that calculates, plots and analyzes several parameters and criteria  based on equations and diagrams developed by different authors around the world (Auliciems, Szokolay, Givoni, ASHRAE, Olgyay, Mahoney, etc.). This is automatically done from the climate data introduced in the spreadsheet. The main aim is focus on having different climatic analysis tools on a same simple interface such as Köppen methodology and others. Also, automatic plotting and analysis of Mahoney strategies, comfort triangles, bioclimatic chart and effective temperature nomogram is done.

All this offers to bioclimatic designers a simple tool to have the climate analysis from a specific site and strategies needed for the initial conceptual design easily and shortly. One of the more important characteristics of the tool is that it was developed in a conventional spreadsheet.

Este documento está conformado por "el resumen, el abstract, el índice general y la introducción" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 1: Planteamiento de la investigación" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 4: Análisis climático-bioclimático de Pachuca, Hidalgo" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

Although there is an emerging consensus about global climate patterns during the Cretaceous, details about the climate in Australia at this time are poorly resolved, and estimates for terrestrial climate are scarce. Using Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) and Bioclimatic Analysis (BA) on plant fossils from the mid- to Upper Cretaceous Winton Formation, central-western Queensland, and working within the context of global paleoclimatic reconstructions and the vertebrate fauna from this unit, we have improved the temporal and geographic resolution of Australia’s Cretaceous climate. During the time that the Cenomanian–Turonian portion of the Winton Formation was deposited, the climate in central-western Queensland was warm, wet, and relatively equable. Frost would have been extremely uncommon, if it occurred at all, and much of the year would have been favorable for plant growth. These results are consistent with both previous isotope records for northern Australia, and the fauna of the Winton Formation, and are in keeping with current reconstructions of global Cretaceous climates.

Durante el Cuaternario, ocurrieron una serie de cambios ambientales ligados a ciclos de glaciaciones a escala global que afectaron y moldearon profundamente los paisajes y formas de vida del planeta Tierra. La mayor glaciación ocurrió hace 110 mil años durante el Último Periodo Glacial, el cual tuvo su apogeo en el Último Máximo Glacial (UMG) hace unos 18.000 años; en esta época los glaciares de montaña de la sierra de Santo Domingo, perteneciente a los Andes venezolanos, tuvieron su máxima extensión y volumen, la temperatura era unos 7ºC más baja y los rangos de precipitación fueron unos 400 mm menores que en la actualidad. Con la llegada del Holoceno (hace aprox. 10.000 años AP), las condiciones ambientales se tornaron más húmedas y cálidas, lo que ocasionó el derretimiento de las grandes masas de hielo y el aumento de la colonización vegetal a mayores alturas. No obstante, durante dicha época se dieron algunos periodos fríos de los cuales destaca la Pequeña Edad de Hielo (PEH), que corresponde al último de los avances glaciales holocenos, particularmente después del Último Máximo Glacial (UMG). Durante la PEH la temperatura disminuyó entre 3 a 1.4 ºC y hubo valores de precipitación de unos 20% mayores a los actuales. Se emplea el Modelo Bioclimático de Zonas de Vida de Holdridge (1971) para la reconstrucción paleobiogeográfica de la antes mencionada sierra con la finalidad determinar las características del clima y sus incidencias en la distribución de las zonas de vida durante el UMG y la PEH, poniendo a prueba los resultados obtenidos con evidencias morfológicas glaciales y paleo-palinológicas. A través del modelo, se determinan las transformaciones sucesivas en las zonas de vida de la sierra bajo determinadas condiciones climáticas a través del tiempo. La reconstrucción de paleoglaciares permite una aproximación que muestra el papel que cumplen las evidencias de paleoglaciares tropicales como indicadores de la variabilidad climática global. Se prevé que de continuar los efectos del cambio climático actual en la sierra, existirá un desplazamiento de zonas de vida a cotas superiores y, seremos testigos de la desaparición futura de algunas de ellas como la Nival y la tundra pluvial Alpino, desencadenando profundos cambios ecológicos.

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 3: Diseño de la investigación (caso de estudio, metodología, etc.)" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 6: Resultados (análisis e interpretación)" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

Este documento está conformado por el "capítulo 5: Procesamiento de datos (métodos estadísticos empleados)" de la tesis titulada Confort Térmico en Bioclima Semi-Frío: Estimación a partir de los Enfoques de Estudio Adaptativo y Predictivo (Caso de estudio: Centro de Estudios de Eduación Superior en Pachuca, Hidalgo)...

The present paper attempts to attribute the role of bioclimatic indexes and their importance in the development and evolution of cultures. With the aid of GIS, a case study is presented aiming to point out the use of GIS is the study of bioclimatic indexes in theoretical study fields, such as, in this case, in Archaeology and more specifically, in the field of Geoarchaeology. Geoarchaeology is not a discipline, but an interdisciplinary approach, which has everything to gain by taking geomorphological methods and techniques into account (Fouache et al., 2010). Τhe study area is the Prefecture of Messenia, located in south west Greece. The Prefecture of Messenia is one of the best documented areas of mainland Greece. It has been both extensively surveyed and excavated. The archaeological finds are numerous, dating from prehistory to the modern times. Thus, a vast amount of information has helped historians, archaeologists and other scientists to recreate the past.

The Bioclimatic Analysis Tool is a spreadsheet that calculates, plots and analyzes several parameters and criteria based on equations and diagrams developed by different authors around the world (Auliciems, Szokolay, Givoni, ASHRAE, Olgyay, Mahoney, etc.). This is automatically done from the climate data introduced in the spreadsheet. The main aim is focus on having different climatic analysis tools on a same simple interface such as Köppen methodology and others. Also, automatic plotting and analysis of Mahoney strategies, comfort triangles, bioclimatic chart and effective temperature nomogram is done. All this offers to bioclimatic designers a simple tool to have the climate analysis from a specific site and strategies needed for the initial conceptual design easily and shortly. One of the more important characteristics of the tool is that it was developed in a conventional spreadsheet.

The environment we live in for decades shape up our tradition and culture, these are reflected in our songs and dances, decisions and actions, and even in our arts and architecture. However strong foreign influences are the imprint of culture and tradition and this has clearly made confusion and turmoil in our architecture and way of living. (Bulaong, 2002) Architecture apparently is at a process of change, trying to ape western models that somehow have a different kind of architecture than we do, thus the context in which how they should be modeled have also been altered and somehow forgotten during the planning stage. 
Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the rise on the technological inventions has introduced a new lifestyle to all people that dwell upon technology. Some of these technologies are used to help compensate for the design errors in our buildings that have not been designed in accordance to our natural climate; this has caused the increasing rate of environmental degradation to our natural environment. With the increasing concern for the environmental impacts of buildings and the quality of their internal environments, this has raised the debate on the role architects to pay attention in the environmental design of buildings.
Designing Buildings by optimizing all the passive-mode design strategies and in low-energy design (lesser use on non-renewable sources) is called Bioclimatic Design. It aims at providing thermal and visual comfort through modification strategies (bioclimatic chart) of the local climate and makes use of the natural energy sources available (sun, air, wind, vegetation and water). It is vital to adopt this approach in order to reduce the negative consequences of our buildings.
Even The development of Hotel buildings has been accompanied by an increasing interest in the application of sustainability to the building sector. The study focuses on an environmentally sustainable hotel building design. It will consider a range of completed and proposed projects of Dr. Ken Yeang, the father of bioclimatic skyscrapers, who has examined throughout the years of research with this bioclimatic approach. Moreover, the proponent will examine on particular the theories and strategies related to this approach based on the passive mode approach from other architectural authors. 
Keywords: Sustainability, Environmental design, Bioclimatic design, thermal comfort, visual comfort

A tipologia arquitetônica das palafitas é uma moradia que faz parte dos costumes do ribeirinho da Amazônia, no entanto é considerada como "incorreta" pelos impactos causados pelo uso em áreas desordenadas na cidade, áreas úmidas as margens dos rios ou canais, porém ela está inserida no modo de construir típico da região co o material que encontra-se disponível. A especulação imobiliária e a busca por acesso aos equipamentos urbanos submetem famílias a buscar áreas mais centrais da cidade ainda que irregulares e sem condições básicas de saneamento. A remoção da ocupação do local é a primeira alternativa pensada pelo governo como solução, seguida de um possível aterramento da área para urbanização do local ou simples deslocamento dessas famílias para outras áreas, retirando as famílias dos seus locais de origem com os quais as mesmas possuem uma ligação e uma identidade. Essa proposta se tornaem sua maioria temporária em função da pressão socioeconômica que essas famílias
irão enfrentar no seus “novos lares urbanizados” economicamente inviáveis pois demandam uma gama de impostos e taxas ou encarecimento das mesmas devido ao acesso a infraestrutura urbana que outrora não existia na realidade dessas famílias .
Este artigo objetiva expor as potencialidades da aplicação do modelo de construção em palafita como uma solução à tipologia de habitação de interesse social, ressaltando os benefícios do ponto de vista Bioclimático do uso da madeira e a importância de preservar
a linguagem construtiva da região que faz parte da identidade da mesma, não para promover a ocupação de área de preservação ambiental como as áreas de ressaca, mas para adequar as moradias que já existem nessas áreas ao conforto ambiental, preservando as mesmas.  A área de estudo selecionada para a aplicação do projeto se
localiza em uma área periférica na cidade de Macapá no estado do Amapá, região norte
do Brasil, esta área está dentro de uma área úmida ligada ao complexo sistema de drenagem composta pelas áreas úmidas do Amapá (cursos d'água, lagos temporários e permanentes) elementos conhecidas localmente como “áreas de ressaca” exercem um importante papel no microclima e na drenagem de águas pluviais. Este estudo pretende atender as necessidades básicas da população local em termos de moradia visando desconstruir o estereótipo de insalubridade criado em relação à técnicas construtiva em madeira. Através de entrevistas,  análises relacionadas ao conforto térmico e a geometria da insolação, pretende-se obter um modelo palafítico ideal para reprodução no local, utilizando a madeira e buscando inserir nas residências os parâmetros para habitações vinculados à NBR15220-3 que trata das diretrizes para
habitações de interesse social. O projeto buscará a valorização das áreas de ressaca já antropizadas, evitando que ela seja totalmente aterrada e degradada, perdendo sua linguagem, através de soluções sustentáveis e que se enquadrem ao clima da região demonstrando que a palafita é uma tipologia arquitetônica viável de ser mantida também na cidade e não somente um estereótipo de uma área periférica degradada.

Palavras-chave: Palafita, sustentabilidade, arquitetura bioclimática, habitação de interesse social.

In this work we propose a first approach to an issue that relates the potential loss of species associated to taphonomic processes occurring in fossil sites. We attempt to determine the possible utility of bioclimatic analysis as a suitable methodology in Paleoecology. If a number of species are removed from a community, significant changes in its structure might appear which would make this palaeoecological technique dysfunctional. The analysis has been carried out with the data from eight modern mammalian communities from tropical and subtropical environments: Medan (Sumatra), Tumaco (Colombia), Jaipur (India), Catamarca (Argentina), Arica (Chile), Mascate (Oman), Puerto Montt (Chile) and Kagoshima (Japan). On each community we have deleted species randomly. The results from χ2 analyses have allowed us to conclude that the methodology is useful in Palaeoecology since it is functional with a satisfactory level of confidence, as long as the species loss is not excessively elevated (removal of 50-85% of the original species).

In this work we analyzed the problems derived from the potential species loss associated to the taphonomic processes occurring in fossil sites. We seek to resolve the possible utility of cenograms and bioclimatic analysis as methodologies applicable in Paleoecology. Supposedly, if species are deleted in a community, significant changes in its structure might appear, which would make these paleoecological techniques dysfunctional. The analysis has been carried out with the data of two modern mammalian
communities, Barrow (Alaska) and Jaipur (India), on which we have deleted species randomly. Our results have allowed us to conclude that these methodologies are useful in Paleoecology, since they are functional with a satisfactory level of confidence, as long as the species loss is not excessively elevated (for communities with 20-40% of the original species).

Apstrakt: U radu je sprovedena bioklimatska analiza područja Parka prirode "Zlatibor" korišćenjem Univerzalnog termalnog klimatskog indeksa (UTCI) kojim se predstavlja toplotni stres ljudskog organizma uzrokovan meteorološkim uslovima. Cilj istraživanja jeste praćenje toka i promena vrednosti indeksa, kao i zastupljenost različitih kategorija termalnog stresa na sezonskom nivou, u periodu 2012-2017. godina. Za potrebe analize korišćene su srednje dnevne vrednosti meteoroloških parametara (temperatura vazduha, vazdušni pritisak, relativna vlažnost vazduha, brzina vetra i oblačnost) za period od 6 godina (2012-2017.god) koji su izmereni na glavnoj meteorološkoj stanici Zlatibor (1028 nmv.). Dobijenim rezultatima registrovana je postepena izmena sezonskih bioklimatskih karakteristika ovog područja. Najznačajnije promene zabeležene su tokom leta i početkom jeseni, što je u skladu sa pređašnjim istraživanjima vremenskih i bioklimatskih uslova teritorije Republike Srbije, koja su ukazala na postojanje pozitivnog trenda porasta srednje godišnjih temperatura.

Ključne reči: UTCI, spoljašnji termalni komfor, Park prirode, Zlatibor

Abstract: In this paper, the bioclimatic analysis of the Nature Park "Zlatibor" was conducted, by using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), which represents the heat stress of the human organism caused by meteorological conditions. The aim of the research is to monitor the annual course and changes in the values of the index, as well as the representation of the frequency of various categories of thermal stress at the seasonal level, in the period 2012-2017. For the analysis needs, daily values of meteorological data (air temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and total cloud cover) for period of 6 years (2012-2017) were used, which were measured at the main weather station Zlatibor (1028 m). The obtained results shows a gradual change of the seasonal bioclimatic characteristics of this area. The most significant changes were recorded during the summer and early autumn, which is in line with the previous research on weather and bioclimatic conditions of the territory of the Republic of Serbia, which indicated the existence of a positive trend in the increase in average annual temperatures.

This study evaluates the relationship between atmospheric circulation conditions and the frequency of heat/cold stress in Lublin in the years 1951–2010 according to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The paper outlines the frequency and conditional probability of heat/cold stress during particular circulation types and analyses the circulation patterns that induce these incidences. Increased wind velocity had a significant effect on creating unfavourable bioclimatic conditions in winter. Meanwhile, in summer, heat stress was observed almost exclusively when a high pressure system from eastern Europe induced a slow inflow of very warm air masses from the east or south.

1. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating North American bats that is
caused by the cold-growing fungus Geomyces destructans. Since first observed in the winter of 2007,
WNS has led to unprecedented mortality in several species of bats and may threaten more than 15
additional hibernating bat species if it continues across the continent. Although the exact means by
which fungal infection causes mortality are undetermined, available evidence suggests a strong role
of winter environmental conditions in disease mortality.
2. By 2010, the fungus G. destructans was detected in new areas of NorthAmerica far fromthe area
it was first observed, as well as in eight European bat species in different countries, yet mortality was
not observed in many of these new areas of North America or in any part of Europe. This could be
because of the differences in the fungus, rates of disease progression and⁄or in life-history or physiological
traits of the affected bat species between different regions. Infection of bats by G. destructans
without associated mortality might also suggest that certain environmental conditions might have
to co-occur with fungal infection to cause mortality.
3. We tested the environmental conditions hypothesis using Maxent to map and model landscape
surface conditions associated with WNS mortality. This approach was unique in that we modelled
possible requisite environmental conditions for disease mortality and not simply the presence of the
causative agent.
4. The top predictors of WNS mortality were land use ⁄ land cover types, mean air temperature of
wettest quarter, elevation, frequency of precipitation and annual temperature range. Model results
suggest that WNS mortality is most likely to occur in landscapes that are higher in elevation and
topographically heterogeneous, drier and colder during winter, and more seasonally variable than
surrounding landscapes.
5. Synthesis and applications. This study mapped the most likely environmental surface conditions
associated with bat mortality owing to WNS in the north-eastern United Sates; maps can be used
for selection of priority monitoring sites. Our results provide a starting point from which to investigate
and predict the potential spread and population impacts of this catastrophic emerging disease.

O objetivo deste trabalho é diagnosticar se a preservação de áreas verdes realmente reflete na satisfação da comunidade com o ambiente em convívio. Através de uma técnica que propõe minimizar os gastos com energia elétrica para diminuir os impactos ao meio ambiente, a análise bioclimática é uma nova discussão no ambiente geográfico que, se colocada em prática, possivelmente contribuirá para uma relação mais harmônica entre o homem e o meio natural. Dessa forma, empregando técnicas de Sistemas de Informações Geográficas (SIG) e Sensoriamento Remoto, e tomando como área de estudo o bairro Morada do Parque, onde há grande cobertura vegetal e outros atributos que o destacam de outras áreas da cidade de Montes Claros (MG), foi feita esta pesquisa. A metodologia empregada foi: analise empírica do ambiente, revisão bibliográfica, mapeamento e espacialização da área, aplicação de formulário, pesquisa a entidades públicas e a produção de gráficos. O resultado foi a comprovação de que a preservação da paisagem natural em harmonia com os adensamentos urbanos está diretamente ligada à satisfação das pessoas com o espaço, proporcionando maior conforto e equilíbrio em vários aspectos do bem-estar social. Esse resultado foi possível graças à grande ajuda das Geotecnologias na coleta, armazenagem, manipulação e discriminação dos resultados em material cartográfico.

The influence of slope gradient and exposure, of altitude and of distance from the sea on the winter and summer stresses sustained by the Mediterranean vegetation have been parametrized. An example of vegetation changes driven by the variation of any of such environmental factors is reported, and a mathematical formula is proposed to determine a monthly value to add to or subtract from the drought stress and cold stress values, estimated by the Mitrakos' index, in order to better approximate reality. Values obtained in such way can be used in synecology and phytosociology to express in a synthetic-correlative way the ecological valence of plant communities with respect to the main physiognomical features of their growing sites.

1. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating North American bats that is caused by the cold-growing fungus Geomyces destructans. Since first observed in the winter of 2007, WNS has led to unprecedented mortality in several species of bats and may threaten more than 15 additional hibernating bat species if it continues across the continent. Although the exact means by which fungal infection causes mortality are undetermined, available evidence suggests a strong role of winter environmental conditions in disease mortality. 2. By 2010, the fungus G. destructans was detected in new areas of North America far from the area it was first observed, as well as in eight European bat species in different countries, yet mortality was not observed in many of these new areas of North America or in any part of Europe. This could be because of the differences in the fungus, rates of disease progression and ⁄ or in life-history or physiological traits of the affected bat species between different regions. Infection of bats by G. destructans without associated mortality might also suggest that certain environmental conditions might have to co-occur with fungal infection to cause mortality. 3. We tested the environmental conditions hypothesis using Maxent to map and model landscape surface conditions associated with WNS mortality. This approach was unique in that we modelled possible requisite environmental conditions for disease mortality and not simply the presence of the causative agent. 4. The top predictors of WNS mortality were land use ⁄ land cover types, mean air temperature of wettest quarter, elevation, frequency of precipitation and annual temperature range. Model results suggest that WNS mortality is most likely to occur in landscapes that are higher in elevation and topographically heterogeneous, drier and colder during winter, and more seasonally variable than surrounding landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study mapped the most likely environmental surface conditions associated with bat mortality owing to WNS in the north-eastern United Sates; maps can be used for selection of priority monitoring sites. Our results provide a starting point from which to investigate and predict the potential spread and population impacts of this catastrophic emerging disease.

1. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating North American bats that is caused by the cold-growing fungus Geomyces destructans. Since first observed in the winter of 2007, WNS has led to unprecedented mortality in several species of bats and may threaten more than 15 additional hibernating bat species if it continues across the continent. Although the exact means by which fungal infection causes mortality are undetermined, available evidence suggests a strong role of winter environmental conditions in disease mortality. 2. By 2010, the fungus G. destructans was detected in new areas of North America far from the area it was first observed, as well as in eight European bat species in different countries, yet mortality was not observed in many of these new areas of North America or in any part of Europe. This could be because of the differences in the fungus, rates of disease progression and ⁄ or in life-history or physiological traits of the affected bat species between different regions. Infection of bats by G. destructans without associated mortality might also suggest that certain environmental conditions might have to co-occur with fungal infection to cause mortality. 3. We tested the environmental conditions hypothesis using Maxent to map and model landscape surface conditions associated with WNS mortality. This approach was unique in that we modelled possible requisite environmental conditions for disease mortality and not simply the presence of the causative agent. 4. The top predictors of WNS mortality were land use ⁄ land cover types, mean air temperature of wettest quarter, elevation, frequency of precipitation and annual temperature range. Model results suggest that WNS mortality is most likely to occur in landscapes that are higher in elevation and topographically heterogeneous, drier and colder during winter, and more seasonally variable than surrounding landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study mapped the most likely environmental surface conditions associated with bat mortality owing to WNS in the north-eastern United Sates; maps can be used for selection of priority monitoring sites. Our results provide a starting point from which to investigate and predict the potential spread and population impacts of this catastrophic emerging disease.