Institute for Sustainable Futures

This is a thesis in sustainable futures. Sustainable development and the future are topics that cut across traditional disciplinary boundaries. There is much overlap between the sustainable development literature and the futures literature; the concept of sustainable development is explicitly long-term and future-oriented, and most explorations of the future are committed to sustaining human civilisation. The marriage of these two concepts and literatures in the term sustainable futures is a natural one. Sustainable and desirable futures will require action by people from all disciplinary backgrounds, all walks of life. Integration and synthesis of specialist disciplinary knowledge that is presently compartmentalised is a central challenge for researchers interested in sustainable and desirable futures. In this thesis, I attempt integration and synthesis of work from diverse fields related to sustainability.

The Integral framework, articulated by Ken Wilber, provides a comprehensive overview of the systemic, cultural, psychological, behavioral and developmental dynamics that influence any sustainability initiative. This comprehensive map of reality helps teams to better assess, strategize, and design sustainability communications for any scale. In this article, we explain the Integral framework and its implications for sustainability communication. We draw particular attention to eight distinct stages of consciousness development, identified through developmental psychology research. These stages can be used to guide the creation of developmentally-appropriate communications for sustainability initiatives. We highlight two case study applications: a successful market-transformation initiative in the US Building Industry and an emerging application of the Integral framework to influence climate policy discourse in Australia.

Chris Riedy cultural theorists are sufficient to capture real cultural diversity, or that their policy prescriptions map an appropriate path for cultural change. In this chapter, I outline an Integral framework, developed by Ken Wilber, which draws on theories of psychological and cultural development to identify an alternative discourse map and alternative policy prescriptions. I then explore the implications of this framework for ecological economics and deliberative democracy.

Economic analysis has been central to the development of greenhouse abatement policy in Australia. Current Australian policy is to remain outside the Kyoto Protocol, while still attempting to meet the emission targets established under the Protocol. Australia's failure to ratify the Protocol has incurred international criticism; it is therefore appropriate to examine the validity of the economic analysis used to support this policy position. This paper reviews approaches to economic analysis that have been prominent in the greenhouse policy debate in Australia, including computable general equilibrium modelling, bottom-up energy sector modelling and policyspecific cost benefit analysis. Alternative approaches that have received less attention in Australia are also reviewed. Flaws in existing economic analyses include a failure to consider the net cost to society of greenhouse abatement measures, a tendency to exclude abatement benefits, inadequate consideration of ethical and moral issues, a lack of accessibility and the assumption that economic systems are in an optimal equilibrium state.

The Australian Technology Network of Universities (the ATN) is an alliance of five Australian universities, from each mainland State, that collaborate on issues and concerns of shared interest. In February 2009, the ATN committed to reduce its aggregate greenhouse gas emissions to 25% below 2007 levels by 2020. This ambitious target was the culmination of more than a year of technical analysis and political negotiations. The target is supported by a comprehensive emission reduction strategy that prioritises energy saving measures and adoption of low-carbon energy sources.

Methodologies for end use analysis have been developed by different researchers in the energy and water fields and in different areas in the world over the last 20 years. While there are core features associated with the methodologies and models used, the differences can provide insight into the ways that they might be improved, as well as the differences that may be required in different regions and when models are used for different purposes.