Papers by Corneliu Pivariu
Israel-A Super Sparta in the Contemporary Middle East?1 Corneliu PIVARIU "The Middle East is a re... more Israel-A Super Sparta in the Contemporary Middle East?1 Corneliu PIVARIU "The Middle East is a region where the past has never passed, where history weighs on the present more heavily than anywhere else."-Bernard Lewis (British historian specialized in the Middle East)
Executive Summary
The war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has caused the most ... more Executive Summary
The war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has caused the most severe geopolitical rupture in Europe since 1945, bringing high-intensity conventional confrontation back to the forefront and testing the resilience of the entire Western security architecture. Predictions of a swift victory collapsed, and the conflict evolved into a war of attrition and adaptation, where success was not determined by numerical or technological superiority, but by the ability to integrate resources, intelligence, logistics, and willpower into a coherent and resilient system.
From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict has accelerated the transition toward a competitive multipolar order, strengthening NATO and reinforcing Euro-Atlantic cohesion, while also prompting states in the Global South to adopt more autonomous positions. Europe reacted with unity, yet revealed structural vulnerabilities: dependence on the United States, industrial fragmentation, and slow decision-making. For Romania and the entire Eastern Flank, the war has confirmed that geography is both an asset and a vulnerability, demanding urgent investment in national resilience.
At the military level, the war has shown that doctrine and technology must be supported by the human factor and by support infrastructure — otherwise they lose their value. Operations combined archaic tactics (trenches, artillery barrages) with cutting-edge innovations (mass drone deployment, integration of satellites and encrypted communications). Information superiority, logistical resilience, and coordinated international support enabled Ukraine to withstand the assault and even reclaim territory, while Russia was forced to reconfigure its doctrine, mobilization system, and defence industry.
In essence, the conflict has demonstrated that military power can no longer be separated from geopolitical power, and victory is no longer decided exclusively on the battlefield, but by the economic, informational, and political networks that sustain it. The fundamental lesson is that in the 21st century, resilience, adaptability, and the capacity to mobilize durable external support are more decisive than raw massed force.
The Russia–Ukraine war fits into the broader framework of the conflict between the older trend of globalization with its postmodernist dimension (including its DEI, “Cancel”, #MeToo, “Black Lives Matter” components, etc.) and multipolarity, represented mainly by the Global South and sovereigntism. The way this war ends will significantly influence the future course of human society. And let us not forget China.
Introductory Summary
This work provides an in-depth geopolitical analysis of the global transform... more Introductory Summary
This work provides an in-depth geopolitical analysis of the global transformations that have occurred in the first quarter of the 21st century, alongside an assessment of Romania’s strategic position and prospects within the context of these changes. Starting from the premise that the current international order is facing multiple systemic crises — political, economic, ideological, and security-related — the study offers a structured overview of the main global, regional, and national dynamics, with well-argued projections extending to the horizon of 2050.
The first section identifies and examines the major trends in global geopolitical evolution, including the decline of the unipolar order, the rise of new centers of power, the intensification of economic and technological competition, and the legitimacy crisis of international institutions. It highlights the growing polarization between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes, the return to the logic of spheres of influence, and the increasing role of non-state actors and hybrid warfare.
The second chapter reviews the main military conflicts at the beginning of the century — from the Middle East to Eastern Europe — and provides a strategic analysis of the causes, actors involved, and the impact of these confrontations on the global security architecture. Possible scenarios for military developments up to 2050 are also presented, in the context of accelerated armament and the redefinition of international alliances.
The third part of the study focuses on the geopolitics of natural resources — energy, food, water, and rare materials — emphasizing how control over these resources is once again becoming a central factor in international rivalries. Topics such as energy security, dependence on global supply chains, and strategic agricultural potential are addressed, with particular focus on Romania’s vulnerabilities and opportunities in this context.
The fourth chapter explores the ideological and structural conflict between globalism and sovereigntism, highlighting how this tension shapes not only foreign policy choices but also the internal cohesion of states. It offers an in-depth analysis of the relationship between plutocracy and meritocracy, the influence of global informal power networks, and the impact of dominant ideologies on values, identities, and political legitimacy.
The work concludes with a final chapter of general conclusions, in which the main trends are synthesized, development perspectives through 2050 are outlined, and recommendations are formulated for strengthening Romania’s position in a multipolar, unstable, and highly competitive international environment. The study argues that Romania must become an active and self-aware player in defining its own geopolitical path, aiming for a balance between international cooperation and the defense of national interest.
When politicians play with the pencil on the map, the drums of war begin to beat." Otto von Bisma... more When politicians play with the pencil on the map, the drums of war begin to beat." Otto von Bismarck Corneliu PIVARIU I. Brief History Syria, under French mandate after World War I, gained independence in 1945, subsequently experiencing a highly turbulent political and social period marked by numerous military coups until 1970, when General Hafez Al-Assad seized power through a coup. A referendum in the spring of 1971 legitimized his leadership, establishing an autocratic rule based on the military and secret services, widely supported by his Alawite coreligionists (a minority), who held the most important positions in the power structures.
Siria-un Liban mai mare sau, chiar mai mult, un semnal pentru schimbări geopolitice majore în 202... more Siria-un Liban mai mare sau, chiar mai mult, un semnal pentru schimbări geopolitice majore în 2025, inclusiv "liber" la modificarea frontierelor în lume? "Când politicienii se joacă cu creionul pe hartă, tobele războiului încep să bată." Otto von Bismarck Corneliu PIVARIU I. Scurt istoric Siria, aflată sub protectorat francez după Primul Război Mondial, obține independența în 1945, după care traversează o perioada de viată politico-socială extrem de agitată, marcată de numeroase lovituri de stat militare, până în anul 1970, când generalul Hafez Al-Assad ia puterea printr-o lovitură de stat, iar printr-un referendum organizat în primăvara lui 1971 își legitimează prezența în fruntea statului, instaurând o putere autocratică, bazată pe armată și serviciile secrete, sprijinită larg de coreligionarii alauiți (o minoritate), care dețin cele mai importante funcții în structurile puterii.
This quote seems very fitting for the historical period we are experiencing, especially in the Mi... more This quote seems very fitting for the historical period we are experiencing, especially in the Middle East. The question in the title is more rhetorical, with the answer being known by almost everyone who is well-informed. Recently, a year passed since the terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, resulting in over 1,200 deaths and the kidnapping of about 250 Israeli citizens. These are the largest Israeli losses since the 1948 war.
Perspective de evoluție. "Singura cale către un viitor sigur și în securitate, pentru poporul din... more Perspective de evoluție. "Singura cale către un viitor sigur și în securitate, pentru poporul din Orientul Mijlociu și pentru întreaga lume-pentru poporul evreu, pentru creștini cât și pentru musulmani, începe cu credința că fiecare viață umană are aceeași valoare și se încheie cu două state, Palestina și Israel, împărțind pământul și pacea, de la râu (Iordan n.n) până la mare."
Corneliu PIVARIU
The leaders of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) first met in St. Peters... more Corneliu PIVARIU
The leaders of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) first met in St. Petersburg, Russia, during the G8 Summit in July 2006. This was followed by a series of high-level meetings, after which the first BRIC summit took place on June 16, 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia. After the inclusion of South Africa in 2010, the group was renamed BRICS.
Before this year's summit, the group represented 41% of the world's population (3.14 billion people), 24% of global GDP, over 16% of world trade, and 29.3% of the total land area.
For the BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22-24, 2023, invitations were extended to leaders from 67 other countries, resulting in over 500 official participants at the event. Notable for the summit were the physical absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, due to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the first part of 2023, and the absence of a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was represented by China's Minister of Commerce. The reasons for President Xi's decision were not publicly disclosed.
The main points on the summit agenda included:
• Expansion of the BRICS bloc, as over 40 nations expressed interest in joining, with 23 having already submitted official applications.
• Economic cooperation among Global South states in areas such as investments, energy, strategic infrastructure, and innovative technologies.
• Prospects for developing common monetary and banking relationships.
• Global security issues, including matters related to new structures of international order.
After more than half a century from the first edition of the World Economic Forum (WEF), namely i... more After more than half a century from the first edition of the World Economic Forum (WEF), namely in 2023, its 53rd edition unfolded and brought together again an important part of the personalities of the political, economic and financial, and media fields and others or, briefly said, the planet's plutocracy and its connected sectors. I recall that if not long ago, at WEF Davos 2020, its founder, Klaus Schwab was preaching "Great Reset", this year topic was "Cooperation in a Fragmented World", thus acknowledging, in part at least, the failure of the 2020 assumptions.
The geopolitical evolutions in the Middle East marked by the so-called "Arab Spring", the conflic... more The geopolitical evolutions in the Middle East marked by the so-called "Arab Spring", the conflict in Yemen, the threat represented by the Iranian nuclear program and other global geopolitical developments determined United Arab Emirates (UAE) to take some important steps for modernizing and improving its intelligence services starting with the middle of the last decade1.
, the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerni... more , the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerning the expansion of the Schengen area to include new countries took place in Brussels. Formal votes were to be cast in favour of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. Croatia was accepted while Romania and Bulgaria, who were long supposed to join together the area, were vetoed by Austria and the Netherlands (the latter mentioned it voted only against Bulgaria's joining the area). The meeting of the Council took place on the background of the greatest ever corruption scandal within the EU, including the detention of the Vice-President of the European Parliament, Eva Kaili, who already acknowledged partially the charges against her.
, the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerni... more , the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerning the expansion of the Schengen area to include new countries took place in Brussels. Formal votes were to be cast in favour of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. Croatia was accepted while Romania and Bulgaria, who were long supposed to join together the area, were vetoed by Austria and the Netherlands (the latter mentioned it voted only against Bulgaria's joining the area). The meeting of the Council took place on the background of the greatest ever corruption scandal within the EU, including the detention of the Vice-President of the European Parliament, Eva Kaili, who already acknowledged partially the charges against her.
On December 8, 2022, the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its age... more On December 8, 2022, the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerning the expansion of the Schengen area to include new countries took place in Brussels. Formal votes were to be cast in favour of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. Croatia was accepted while Romania and Bulgaria, who were long supposed to join together the area, were vetoed by Austria and the Netherlands (the latter mentioned it voted only against Bulgaria's joining the area). The meeting of the Council took place on the background of the greatest ever corruption scandal within the EU, including the detention of the Vice-President of the European Parliament, Eva Kaili, who already acknowledged partially the charges against her.
, around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin's order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war ... more , around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin's order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. There is no chance for us to fall into Kremlin's propagandistic trap and accept circumventing the term war for this aggression and use Moscow's expression. The re-invasion Russia launched on ground, from the air and from the sea is the largest attack of a state against another state in Europe after the WWII. The 2014 invasion should not be frogotten and that is why we used the term reinvasion which is, otherwise, coming across in the international media. From its military dimension, the conflict became manifest in the economic, diplomatic, media and social fields in the countries directly involved, yet with reverberations in almost all of the world's countries. The present approach will deal predominantly with the military aspects while not neglecting the essential aspects in other fields.
, around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin's order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war ... more , around 5 AM Moscow time, on Vladimir Putin's order the Russian army launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. There is no chance for us to fall into Kremlin's propagandistic trap and accept circumventing the term war for this aggression and use Moscow's expression. The re-invasion Russia launched on ground, from the air and from the sea is the largest attack of a state against another state in Europe after the WWII. The 2014 invasion should not be frogotten and that is why we used the term reinvasion which is, otherwise, coming across in the international media. From its military dimension, the conflict became manifest in the economic, diplomatic, media and social fields in the countries directly involved, yet with reverberations in almost all of the world's countries. The present approach will deal predominantly with the military aspects while not neglecting the essential aspects in other fields.
Gl.mr. (ret.) Corneliu PIVARIU La 24 februarie 2022, în jurul orei 05.00 dimineața, la ordinul pr... more Gl.mr. (ret.) Corneliu PIVARIU La 24 februarie 2022, în jurul orei 05.00 dimineața, la ordinul președintelui rus Vladimir Putin, armata rusă a declanșat un război neprovocat împotriva Ucrainei. Nu este posibil în nici un caz să cădem în capcana propagandistică a Kremlinului și să acceptăm ocolirea termenului de război pentru această agresiune, folosind exprimarea Moscovei. Re-invazia declanșată de Rusia, terestru, aerian și maritim, este cel mai mare atac al unui stat împotriva altui stat în Europa de după cel deal Doilea Război Mondial. Nu trebuie uitată invazia din 2014, de aceea am folosit termenul de re-invazie, pe care de altfel îl mai putem regăsi în media internațională. De la dimensiunea militară, conflictul a început imediat să se manifeste și în domeniile economic, diplomatic, mediatic, social, în țările direct implicate, dar cu reverberații în aproape toate țările lumii. În prezenta analiză vom avea cu preponderență în atenție aspectele de ordin militar, fără a neglija aspecte esențiale din alte domenii.
Gl.mr. (ret.) Corneliu PIVARIU La 24 februarie 2022, în jurul orei 05.00 dimineața, la ordinul pr... more Gl.mr. (ret.) Corneliu PIVARIU La 24 februarie 2022, în jurul orei 05.00 dimineața, la ordinul președintelui rus Vladimir Putin, armata rusă a declanșat un război neprovocat împotriva Ucrainei. Nu este posibil în nici un caz să cădem în capcana propagandistică a Kremlinului și să acceptăm ocolirea termenului de război pentru această agresiune, folosind exprimarea Moscovei. Re-invazia declanșată de Rusia, terestru, aerian și maritim, este cel mai mare atac al unui stat împotriva altui stat în Europa de după cel deal Doilea Război Mondial. Nu trebuie uitată invazia din 2014, de aceea am folosit termenul de reinvazie, pe care de altfel îl mai putem regăsi în media internațională. De la dimensiunea militară, conflictul a început imediat să se manifeste și în domeniile economic, diplomatic, mediatic, social, în țările direct implicate, dar cu reverberații în aproape toate țările lumii. În prezenta analiză vom avea cu preponderență în atenție aspectele de ordin militar, fără a neglija aspecte esențiale din alte domenii.
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Papers by Corneliu Pivariu
The war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has caused the most severe geopolitical rupture in Europe since 1945, bringing high-intensity conventional confrontation back to the forefront and testing the resilience of the entire Western security architecture. Predictions of a swift victory collapsed, and the conflict evolved into a war of attrition and adaptation, where success was not determined by numerical or technological superiority, but by the ability to integrate resources, intelligence, logistics, and willpower into a coherent and resilient system.
From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict has accelerated the transition toward a competitive multipolar order, strengthening NATO and reinforcing Euro-Atlantic cohesion, while also prompting states in the Global South to adopt more autonomous positions. Europe reacted with unity, yet revealed structural vulnerabilities: dependence on the United States, industrial fragmentation, and slow decision-making. For Romania and the entire Eastern Flank, the war has confirmed that geography is both an asset and a vulnerability, demanding urgent investment in national resilience.
At the military level, the war has shown that doctrine and technology must be supported by the human factor and by support infrastructure — otherwise they lose their value. Operations combined archaic tactics (trenches, artillery barrages) with cutting-edge innovations (mass drone deployment, integration of satellites and encrypted communications). Information superiority, logistical resilience, and coordinated international support enabled Ukraine to withstand the assault and even reclaim territory, while Russia was forced to reconfigure its doctrine, mobilization system, and defence industry.
In essence, the conflict has demonstrated that military power can no longer be separated from geopolitical power, and victory is no longer decided exclusively on the battlefield, but by the economic, informational, and political networks that sustain it. The fundamental lesson is that in the 21st century, resilience, adaptability, and the capacity to mobilize durable external support are more decisive than raw massed force.
The Russia–Ukraine war fits into the broader framework of the conflict between the older trend of globalization with its postmodernist dimension (including its DEI, “Cancel”, #MeToo, “Black Lives Matter” components, etc.) and multipolarity, represented mainly by the Global South and sovereigntism. The way this war ends will significantly influence the future course of human society. And let us not forget China.
This work provides an in-depth geopolitical analysis of the global transformations that have occurred in the first quarter of the 21st century, alongside an assessment of Romania’s strategic position and prospects within the context of these changes. Starting from the premise that the current international order is facing multiple systemic crises — political, economic, ideological, and security-related — the study offers a structured overview of the main global, regional, and national dynamics, with well-argued projections extending to the horizon of 2050.
The first section identifies and examines the major trends in global geopolitical evolution, including the decline of the unipolar order, the rise of new centers of power, the intensification of economic and technological competition, and the legitimacy crisis of international institutions. It highlights the growing polarization between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes, the return to the logic of spheres of influence, and the increasing role of non-state actors and hybrid warfare.
The second chapter reviews the main military conflicts at the beginning of the century — from the Middle East to Eastern Europe — and provides a strategic analysis of the causes, actors involved, and the impact of these confrontations on the global security architecture. Possible scenarios for military developments up to 2050 are also presented, in the context of accelerated armament and the redefinition of international alliances.
The third part of the study focuses on the geopolitics of natural resources — energy, food, water, and rare materials — emphasizing how control over these resources is once again becoming a central factor in international rivalries. Topics such as energy security, dependence on global supply chains, and strategic agricultural potential are addressed, with particular focus on Romania’s vulnerabilities and opportunities in this context.
The fourth chapter explores the ideological and structural conflict between globalism and sovereigntism, highlighting how this tension shapes not only foreign policy choices but also the internal cohesion of states. It offers an in-depth analysis of the relationship between plutocracy and meritocracy, the influence of global informal power networks, and the impact of dominant ideologies on values, identities, and political legitimacy.
The work concludes with a final chapter of general conclusions, in which the main trends are synthesized, development perspectives through 2050 are outlined, and recommendations are formulated for strengthening Romania’s position in a multipolar, unstable, and highly competitive international environment. The study argues that Romania must become an active and self-aware player in defining its own geopolitical path, aiming for a balance between international cooperation and the defense of national interest.
The leaders of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) first met in St. Petersburg, Russia, during the G8 Summit in July 2006. This was followed by a series of high-level meetings, after which the first BRIC summit took place on June 16, 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia. After the inclusion of South Africa in 2010, the group was renamed BRICS.
Before this year's summit, the group represented 41% of the world's population (3.14 billion people), 24% of global GDP, over 16% of world trade, and 29.3% of the total land area.
For the BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22-24, 2023, invitations were extended to leaders from 67 other countries, resulting in over 500 official participants at the event. Notable for the summit were the physical absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, due to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the first part of 2023, and the absence of a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was represented by China's Minister of Commerce. The reasons for President Xi's decision were not publicly disclosed.
The main points on the summit agenda included:
• Expansion of the BRICS bloc, as over 40 nations expressed interest in joining, with 23 having already submitted official applications.
• Economic cooperation among Global South states in areas such as investments, energy, strategic infrastructure, and innovative technologies.
• Prospects for developing common monetary and banking relationships.
• Global security issues, including matters related to new structures of international order.