The difficulties inherent in the assessment of future teachers’ in-trainings are caused by the co... more The difficulties inherent in the assessment of future teachers’ in-trainings are caused by the complexity of their aims and objectives, by the diverse assessors involved and by the need of designing coherent and equitable processes. As for the Master’s for Teaching in Secondary Education in the University of León, creating working networks, as the interdepartmental group IFAHE or the one integrated by IFAHE and some school mentors has aided to define and adequate the competencies included in this Master’s legal framework. It has also splitted those which can be assessed at school centres from the one assessed at university. The collaborative work carried out from the academic year 2009/10 up to this moment has enabled the elaboration of assessing tools and the implementation of the protocols integrating the triadic assessments carried out at university (with tutorships which incorporate self-, coand assessment by the supervisor) and at school (with tutorships integrating selfand ass...
Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture
Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sec... more Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning ...
Describimos el comportamiento estadístico de la significancia de las diferencias en la precipitac... more Describimos el comportamiento estadístico de la significancia de las diferencias en la precipitación en México durante la presencia de "El Niño", "La Niña" o condiciones neutrales. La principal diferencia con otros trabajos similares es el análisis de significancia estadística de las diferencias en la precipitación entre diferentes condiciones del fenómeno El Niño - Oscilación del Sur (ENOS). El análisis se llevó a cabo para la estación húmeda (junio, julio, agosto y septiembre), la estación seca (diciembre, enero y febrero) y para el año completo. Se ajustaron líneas rectas por mínimos cuadrados usando la precipitación como variable dependiente y el valor del Índice Multivariado para el fenómeno ENOS (IME) como variable independiente. Se hicieron también comparaciones de la precipitación entre condiciones de "El Niño", "La Niña" y neutras usando pruebas de Wilcoxon - Mann - Whitney. Los resultados muestran que durante la ocurrencia de "E...
The Editorial Board and staff of Atmósfera deeply regret the death of Dr. Julián Adem, Founding E... more The Editorial Board and staff of Atmósfera deeply regret the death of Dr. Julián Adem, Founding Editor of this journal. Dr. Adem made substantial contributions to atmospheric sciences and played a pioneering role in the development of climate physics.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein.
Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, 2013
Using the methodology of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) a model to determine the r... more Using the methodology of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) a model to determine the relationship suitability index with the yields per hectare and the percentage of production area lost of rainfed maize for the state of Puebla was built. The data used to build the model presented inconsistencies. The data of the INEGI's land use map presented more municipalities without rainfed maize agriculture than the database of SAGARPA. Also the SAGARPA data, in terms of the percentage of production area lost, do not show any distinctions between the loss due to climate, pests, or simply that the farmer did not plant the total area that was declared, or had not harvested all the area declared. Even with data inconsistencies ANFIS produced a coherent output reviewed by experts. The model shows that higher the percentage of production area lost and high yields the higher the suitability index is. According to local studies this is due to the high degradation of the soils.
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, 2012
In this work, we used a nonlinear, reduced gravity model of the Gulf of Mexico to study the effec... more In this work, we used a nonlinear, reduced gravity model of the Gulf of Mexico to study the effect of a seasonal variation of the reduced gravity parameter on ring-shedding behaviour. When small amplitudes of the seasonal variation are used, the distributions of ring-shedding periods are bi-modal. When the amplitude of the seasonal variation is large enough, the ring-shedding events shift to a regime with a constant, yearly period. If the seasonal amplitude of the reduce gravity parameter is small but a noise term is included, then a yearly regime is obtained, suggesting that stochastic resonance could play a role in the ring-shedding process taking place in the Gulf of Mexico.
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, 2012
Future scenarios (through 2100) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)... more Future scenarios (through 2100) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a wide range of concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, and the corresponding range of temperatures. These data, allow inferring that higher temperature increases are directly related to higher emission levels of GHG and to the increase in their atmospheric concentrations. It is evident that lower temperature increases are related to smaller amounts of emissions and, to lower GHG concentrations. In this work, simple linguistic rules are extracted from results obtained through the use of simple linear scenarios of emissions of GHG in the Magicc model. These rules describe the relations between the GHG, their concentrations, the radiative forcing associated with these concentrations, and the corresponding temperature changes. These rules are used to build a fuzzy model, which uses concentration values of GHG as input variables and gives, as output, the temperature increase projected for year 2100. A second fuzzy model is presented on the temperature increases obtained from the same model but including a second source of uncertainty: climate sensitivity. Both models are very attractive because their simplicity and capability to integrate the uncertainties to the input (emissions, sensitivity) and the output (temperature).
Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, 2014
There are several models that correlate global mean temperature with Carbon emissions using stati... more There are several models that correlate global mean temperature with Carbon emissions using statistical analysis; in this study we approach the problem using fuzzy logic analysis and inference systems, which is a pioneer method in climate modelling. The process in which anthropogenic activity affects the atmospheric Carbon and therefore the global mean temperature, has been well studied but there are still a lot of unknown factors that play an important role in the process, e.g. punctual Carbon sequestration processes, economyled emissions' fluctuations, etcetera. That way the process take no clear path and is when fuzzy logic is ideal to approach the system understanding. In this study a Fuzzy Inference System is developed, which model the problem using historical data from 1959 to present. Our model has good results quite comparable with statistical models and it can be used to project the future global mean temperature. The model was developed using SIMULINK extension from matlab.
Los métodos econométricos ofrecen nuevas pruebas del cambio en las temperaturas y alertan sobre los riesgos de la intervención humana en el sistema climático
Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, 2014
This study shows an important innovation with the use of fuzzy logic to develop models on the mig... more This study shows an important innovation with the use of fuzzy logic to develop models on the migration factors occurring in the state of Oaxaca, México, since fuzzy logic has not been applied in this field. Migration is a complex system as individuals make their own decision to migrate. The major factors causing migration are: higher employment in the primary sector, high grades of unemployment, high marginalization index, small communities, soil degradation, violence and remittance received. Another tendency shown in these models is that municipalities in Oaxaca with greater levels of education are having higher migration levels due to the lack of opportunities to continue studies or well-paid jobs. Climate change may impose greater movement of people as it can worsen the already precarious soil situation. Even if the models present some error in the calculation of the migration index, it made clear what other variables should be included to show the impacts of climate change on migration.
Se estudian algunas características de la precipitación, tales como el principio y final de la es... more Se estudian algunas características de la precipitación, tales como el principio y final de la estación lluviosa, así como la distribución espacial y temporal de la lluvia, usando datos de precipitación de 23 estaciones localizadas en el Distrito Federal para el periodo 1954-1988. Se definen cuatro variables relacionadas con su comportamiento: el día del primer y último evento de 10 mm de precipitación acumulados y el porcentaje de precipitación acumulada hasta los días julianos 150 y 275. Con estas variables se hace un análisis de varianza y de componentes principales, el cual permite establecer que la precipitación en el Distrito Federal (que incluye parte de la Ciudad de México y áreas circundantes) responde uniformemente en el tiempo a la presencia de fenómenos meteorológicos de mesoescala. Los resultados indican que al principio y final del periodo de estudio la precipitación fue menor que en los años intermedios; adicionalmente, la temporada de lluvias se establece de oeste a este y se retira de este a oeste, causando una temporada más larga en el suroeste que en el noreste. La distribución espacial muestra la mayor precipitación en la parte suroeste debido al efecto de montaña, y la menor en la parte noreste.
We proposed and implemented 60 indicators for assessing vulnerability to climate change in the ag... more We proposed and implemented 60 indicators for assessing vulnerability to climate change in the agricultural sector in Mexico at municipal level. We followed the IPCC definition of vulnerability that is noted as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In exposure we proposed 16 indicators, 23 for sensitivity and 21 for adaptive capacity. Some variables considered future projected information. The future sensitivity was considered assessing the potential impact of climate change on the natural aptitude of land. Maps and profiles of vulnerability were built by the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices. The maps are displayed in five classes of vulnerability: very high, high, medium, low and very low.
Simulation of the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) as a Markov Chain and estimation of its probability distribution
The objectives of this work are the simulation of the behavior of the Multivariate El Niño Southe... more The objectives of this work are the simulation of the behavior of the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) with the use of a Markov chain with six states. The estimation of the transition matrix was made using observed values obtained from the monthly MEI time series of overlapped bi-monthly means reported by NOAA since 1950; this data are
In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is present... more In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970's. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.
Se analizaron los impactos del cambio climático en el sector forestal mediante simulaciones en la... more Se analizaron los impactos del cambio climático en el sector forestal mediante simulaciones en la distribución potencial de 16 especies forestales en la República Mexicana, para zonas templadas, tropicales y semiáridas. Se estudiaron para el escenario base así como para tres modelos de cambio climático (GFDL-CM-2.0, MPI-ECHAM-5, HADGEM-1) bajo los escenarios de emisiones socioeconómicos A2 y B2 al horizonte de tiempo 2050. La metodología consistió en: 1) modelación de la climatología en el periodo 1950-2000 (escenario base), 2) aplicación de razones de cambio de los tres modelos de cambio climático, 3) cálculo del balance de humedad en el suelo, 4) creación de matrices de requerimientos ambientales de las especies forestales y 5) simulación de la distribución potencial espacial de las especies. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que todas las especies forestales de las zonas templadas se verán afectadas para el horizonte de tiempo considerado, como consecuencia del incremento en la temperatura en todo el territorio nacional y la disminución de la precipitación en casi todos los meses del año. En las especies de zona tropical, con excepción de Cedrela odorata, se presenta una disminución considerable en los niveles de mayor aptitud, lo que se asocia a restricciones para su desarrollo al incrementarse el periodo seco, asimismo, las áreas templadas, que tendrán un aumento en la temperatura, serán de aptitud limitada para estas especies. Para las especies de la región semiárida y árida, los modelos reportan que se espera un incremento de la superficie sin aptitud, lo que se asocia al incremento del déficit hídrico y en las zonas que actualmente se consideran marginales las restricciones serán más severas. De los modelos de cambio climático considerados, el HADGEM-1 establece las condiciones más restrictivas, el MPI-ECHAM-5 establece una situación intermedia de afectación negativa y el modelo GFDL-CM-2.0 establece incrementos de la superficie con cierto grado de aptitud. Geográficamente, el país no presenta cambios constantes en la distribución potencial de las especies, estas varían de acuerdo al modelo de cambio climático utilizado, la especie analizada y la zona ecológica delimitada.
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