Regional climate change scenarios for Mexico

At Argonne National Laboratory we have developed a high-performance regional climate modeling system based on the NCAR MM5v3.4 mesoscale weather forecasting model. The Argonne system currently includes a Java-based interface to allow rapid selection and generation of initial and boundary conditions, a high-performance version of MM5v3.4 modified for long climate simulations on supercomputers (including Argonne's 512-processor Linux cluster, Chiba City), an interactive Web-based analysis tool to facilitate analysis and collaboration via the Web, and an enhanced version of the CAVE5d software capable of working with large climate data sets. We illustrate the application of this modeling system to the study of the climate of the U.S. Midwest. In particular, we investigate the role of model resolution in predicting extreme events, such as "Hurricane Huron" event of 11-15 September 1996. We have performed a series of "Hurricane Huron" experiments at 80, 40, 20, and 10 km grid resolution over an identical spatiotemporal domain. We conclude that increasing model resolution in our regional climate simulations leads to dramatic changes in the vertical structure of the simulated atmosphere, producing significantly different representations of rainfall, wind velocities, and other parameters critical to the assessment of impacts of climate change. Future climate simulations at regional resolution could provide a much more realistic basis for the assessment of the impacts of future climate change on both natural and human systems.

M.G. Anderson (Ed): Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, Part 3. Meteorology and Climatology, Chapter 32, ISBN: 0 471-49103-9, p 478-490 DOI: 10.1002/0470848944.hsa035, 2005

The concept of climate simulations with quasi-realistic climate models is discussed and illustrated with examples. The relevant problem of deriving regional and local specifications is considered as well.

Climate Research, 1997

Current c h a t e and climate change scenarios are the basis for climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies. Comparison between the current situation and the one that would prevail under climate change conditions allows for the identification of vulnerable regions and the quantification of vulnerability. This may be done by evaluating the land area adversely affected by climate change (e.g. with reduction in agricultural yields or decrease in the level of water reservoirs). Specific regionalization criteria and methods based on physical considerations should be applied in the development of regional climate scenarios. This is the principle followed in studies using analogue scenarios. A methodology based on the direct ~nterpolation of general circulation model (GCM) outputs to the study region under 1xC02 and 2xC02 conditions may be used as a first approach for the development of climate change scenarios. That methodology was applied in this study in order to be consistent with the assessments performed by more than 50 countries involved in the U.S. Country Studies Program and to allow for the comparison and integration of the results from several countries. However, an alternative methodology based on multiple regression was also applied by the Scenario task group of the Mexico Country Study. This methodology is considered to be more appropriate for regionalization purposes. KEY WORDS: Global climate change. General circulation models. Climate scenarios. Statistical models. Regionalization. Mexico Country Study

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005

Geophysical Research Letters, 2008

A suite of eighteen simulations over the U.S. and Mexico, representing combinations of two mesoscale regional climate models (RCMs), two driving global general circulation models (GCMs), and the historical and four future anthropogenic forcings were intercompared. The RCMs' downscaling reduces significantly driving GCMs' present‐climate biases and narrows inter‐model differences in representing climate sensitivity and hence in simulating the present and future climates. Very high spatial pattern correlations of the RCM minus GCM differences in precipitation and surface temperature between the present and future climates indicate that major model present‐climate biases are systematically propagated into future‐climate projections at regional scales. The total impacts of the biases on trend projections also depend strongly on regions and cannot be linearly removed. The result suggests that the nested RCM‐GCM approach that offers skill enhancement in representing the present cl...

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2017

We describe a new, state‐of‐the‐art, Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM‐ES), which includes the coupling between the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface, as well as a hydrological and ocean biogeochemistry model, with the capability of using a variety of physical parameterizations. The regional coupled model has been implemented and tested over some of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains and more regional settings featuring climatically important coupled phenomena. Regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere models can be especially useful tools to provide information on the mechanisms of air‐sea interactions and feedbacks occurring at fine spatial and temporal scales. RegCM‐ES shows a good representation of precipitation and SST fields over the domains tested, as well as realistic simulations of coupled air‐sea processes and interactions. The RegCM‐ES model, which can be easily implemented over any regional domain of interest, is open source, maki...

Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 2014

A super high resolution Global Circulation Model GCM20 (20 Km horizontal resolution) of Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, is compared spatially and temporally with the UK’s Hadley center Regional Climate Model (RCM) viz. Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) to investigate climate change scenarios and biases that lie within. Data Analysis and Integration System (DIAS) was accessed to obtain GCM20 data while for PRECIS data, simulations were done under the A1B scenario at a horizontal resolution of 0.22 degrees (25 Km approx.) with the boundary data from European GCM ECHAM5. Three different time scales were selected from both models- the baseline (1979-1998), present and near future (2007-2027) and the far future (2080-2099). Comparisons were made for the domain 20° N-40° N and 60° E80° E including Pakistan, Afghanistan and climate active regions of Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas. Analysis of both the models suggests that the areas covering the ...

P opulations in economically developing nations (EDNs) depend extensively on climate for their welfare (e.g., agriculture, water resources, power generation, industry) and likewise are vulnerable to variability in the climate system, whether due to anthropogenic forcing or natural processes. Furthermore, changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., greenhouse gases and aerosols) and land cover are likely to significantly alter regional climates , thereby affecting local socioeconomic development and livelihoods of EDN populations. Therefore, the evaluation of climate change and variability at seasonal-to-multidecadal time scales is of great benefit to these regions.

We describe the first simulation experiment and output archives of the Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS). Initial results from simulations of the summer 1988 drought over the central U.S. indicate that limited-area models forced by large-scale information at the lateral boundaries are able to reproduce bulk temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological fields. In particular, the 500 hPa height field's time average and temporal variability are generally well simulated by all participating models. Model simulations of precipitation episodes vary depending on the scale of the relevant dynamical forcing. Organized synoptic-scale precipitation systems are simulated deterministically in that precipitation occurs at close to the same time and location as observed (though the amounts may vary from the observations). Episodes of mesoscale and convective precipitation are represented in a more stochastic sense, with less precise agreement in temporal and spatial patterns. Differences in daily maximum temperatures are linked to the Bowen ratio differences, indicating strong local, surface influence on this field. Although some of the models have bias with respect to the FIFE observations, they all tend to reproduce the synoptic variability of observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Climate Research, 1997

Outputs from 5 general circulation models (GCMs) were analyzed in order to evaluate their performance for estimating future climate conditions m the temperate zone of southeastern South America (24" to 38's and 50" to 65'W). The GCMs analyzed were: GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Science), GFDL-R30 and GFDL 1 % (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory). UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office), and CCCM (Canadian Climate Center Model). The variables under study were mean monthly temperature and mean daily precipitation. The degree to which the models represent current climate was estimated by comparing model outputs with observed climate values for the 1951 to 1970 period by means of a correlation analysis. The temperature values estimated by the models showed a good fit with the observed values. However, fitting of precipitation values was not statistically significant. This study was carried out withln the framework of the Uruguay Climate Change Country Study as a basis for assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. KEY WORDS: General circulation models. Climate change. Climate scenarios. Climate simulation 1. INTRODUCTION