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Figure 4. A Tripartite Analytical Framework for Strategic Intelligence. The tripartite relationship among Big Data analytics, traditional subject matter expertise, and game theory may be schematized in the following manner (see Figure 4). Big Data comprise the raw text, or more accurately, subtext that conceals correlations and that sits unstirred in the ether, so to speak, awaiting exploitation. Subject matter expertise lends the necessary context by imbuing correlative (Big Data) analysis with historical, diplomatic, political, economic, social, cultural and linguistic meaning and hence a causal narrative, and for this reason retains its normative primacy. But to subtext and context must be added metatext, namely a higher, overarching level of analysis comprising strategic calculus. Game theory provides the overall, largely unspoken framework in which all possible strategic responses are conceptualized and the corresponding equilibria, known as best responses, played out by both or more sides. This is a ‘framework’ in the delimitative sense because strategy is usually driven by ambient circumstances and is hence obliged to operate within these constraints. Tmrnroved canahilitiec atthe evhterkand ranfert lewelecan render decicive the

Figure 4 A Tripartite Analytical Framework for Strategic Intelligence. The tripartite relationship among Big Data analytics, traditional subject matter expertise, and game theory may be schematized in the following manner (see Figure 4). Big Data comprise the raw text, or more accurately, subtext that conceals correlations and that sits unstirred in the ether, so to speak, awaiting exploitation. Subject matter expertise lends the necessary context by imbuing correlative (Big Data) analysis with historical, diplomatic, political, economic, social, cultural and linguistic meaning and hence a causal narrative, and for this reason retains its normative primacy. But to subtext and context must be added metatext, namely a higher, overarching level of analysis comprising strategic calculus. Game theory provides the overall, largely unspoken framework in which all possible strategic responses are conceptualized and the corresponding equilibria, known as best responses, played out by both or more sides. This is a ‘framework’ in the delimitative sense because strategy is usually driven by ambient circumstances and is hence obliged to operate within these constraints. Tmrnroved canahilitiec atthe evhterkand ranfert lewelecan render decicive the

Related Figures (3)

Figure 1. The Intelligence Cycle.'* Note: the terms ‘data’, ‘information’ and ‘intelligence’ in parentheses denote: raw unstructured data; data that has been given context and hence informational value; and information that has been analyzed for future implications and shaped into intelligence for decision support, respectively. ©
Figure 1. The Intelligence Cycle.'* Note: the terms ‘data’, ‘information’ and ‘intelligence’ in parentheses denote: raw unstructured data; data that has been given context and hence informational value; and information that has been analyzed for future implications and shaped into intelligence for decision support, respectively. ©
Popper’s refutation method has its echoes in the analysis of competing hypotheses, an approach CIA veteran Richards J. Heuer helped flesh out in greater detail in a 1999 book. Despite minor technical and methodological differences such as relatively lower inconsistency scores as a criterion in disproving hypotheses (as opposed to absolute inconsistency), and the concept of ‘diagnosticity’ (consistency of evidence with the various hypotheses) which implicitly recognizes degrees in corroborative evidence, Heuer’s framework nonetheless adds valuable analytical nuance.77
Popper’s refutation method has its echoes in the analysis of competing hypotheses, an approach CIA veteran Richards J. Heuer helped flesh out in greater detail in a 1999 book. Despite minor technical and methodological differences such as relatively lower inconsistency scores as a criterion in disproving hypotheses (as opposed to absolute inconsistency), and the concept of ‘diagnosticity’ (consistency of evidence with the various hypotheses) which implicitly recognizes degrees in corroborative evidence, Heuer’s framework nonetheless adds valuable analytical nuance.77
Figure 3. Big Data, Incorporated into the Intelligence Method. the Royal United Services Institute noted that the ‘intelligence world already collects more raw data than it can analyse, with perhaps as much as 95 percent of imagery never being viewed by analysts’.’’ According to the same report, senior Ministry of Defense officials believe that the UK ‘has reachec an inflection point in data deluge. We are now in danger of data asphyxiatior and decision paralysis’.** Such is also certainly the case with the US’ Nationa Security Agency, where Sigint technology far outpaces the organization’s human analytical capabilities.*° Elsewhere, in order to track the movement o seagoing vessels worldwide, the US navy alone collects 200 terabytes of data approximately every 48 hours.°° That more than a small proportion of al that collected data is processed is equally questionable. Finally, usec correctly, Big Data analytics, with the aid of effective visualization anc
Figure 3. Big Data, Incorporated into the Intelligence Method. the Royal United Services Institute noted that the ‘intelligence world already collects more raw data than it can analyse, with perhaps as much as 95 percent of imagery never being viewed by analysts’.’’ According to the same report, senior Ministry of Defense officials believe that the UK ‘has reachec an inflection point in data deluge. We are now in danger of data asphyxiatior and decision paralysis’.** Such is also certainly the case with the US’ Nationa Security Agency, where Sigint technology far outpaces the organization’s human analytical capabilities.*° Elsewhere, in order to track the movement o seagoing vessels worldwide, the US navy alone collects 200 terabytes of data approximately every 48 hours.°° That more than a small proportion of al that collected data is processed is equally questionable. Finally, usec correctly, Big Data analytics, with the aid of effective visualization anc
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