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Popper’s refutation method has its echoes in the analysis of competing hypotheses, an approach CIA veteran Richards J. Heuer helped flesh out in greater detail in a 1999 book. Despite minor technical and methodological differences such as relatively lower inconsistency scores as a criterion in disproving hypotheses (as opposed to absolute inconsistency), and the concept of ‘diagnosticity’ (consistency of evidence with the various hypotheses) which implicitly recognizes degrees in corroborative evidence, Heuer’s framework nonetheless adds valuable analytical nuance.77

Figure 2 Popper’s refutation method has its echoes in the analysis of competing hypotheses, an approach CIA veteran Richards J. Heuer helped flesh out in greater detail in a 1999 book. Despite minor technical and methodological differences such as relatively lower inconsistency scores as a criterion in disproving hypotheses (as opposed to absolute inconsistency), and the concept of ‘diagnosticity’ (consistency of evidence with the various hypotheses) which implicitly recognizes degrees in corroborative evidence, Heuer’s framework nonetheless adds valuable analytical nuance.77

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Figure 1. The Intelligence Cycle.'* Note: the terms ‘data’, ‘information’ and ‘intelligence’ in parentheses denote: raw unstructured data; data that has been given context and hence informational value; and information that has been analyzed for future implications and shaped into intelligence for decision support, respectively. ©
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