Weather Extremes

Temperature extremes have been linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes globally. This study investigated the influence of extreme temperature on adverse pregnancy outcomes in Kaduna State, Nigeria. Daily minimum and maximum temperature data of Kaduna State (2015-2023) were downloaded from NASA Power Access. Monthly records of three adverse pregnancy outcomes which include Pre-Term (PT), Low Birth Weight (LBW) and Still Birth (SB) for the period 2015 to 2023 were retrieved from the database of Barau Dikko Specialist Teaching Hospital, Kaduna State. RClimdex was employed to compute four percentile-based extreme temperature indices (TX10p; TX90p; TN10p; and TN90p). Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression were used to examine the association and extent of the relationship between extreme temperature indices and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Kaduna State, Nigeria. Results of the correlation analysis revealed that correlation coefficient between TN10p and LBW, PT and SB were 0.237, 0.142 and-0.006, among which only LBW had a significant relationship. The correlation coefficient between TN90p and LBW, PT and SB were-0.190,-0.301, and-0.335, with PT and SB exhibiting significant relationship. The correlation coefficient between TX10p and PT, LBW and SB were 0.491, 0.440 and 0.361 respectively. All the correlation were statistically significant. Lastly, TX90p had moderate negative relationship with PT and SB, but a weak negative significant relationship with LBW, with correlation coefficients of-0.408,-0.449 and-0.397 respectively. From the regression analysis, it can be concluded that both cold and warm temperature extremes significantly influence adverse pregnancy outcomes in the study area. Also, daytime extremes exhibit stronger influence on adverse pregnancy outcomes compared to nighttime extremes. Therefore, this study recommends that pregnant women should be educated on the significance of avoiding extreme temperatures, as well as how to avoid health problems caused by heat or cold.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon centered in the tropical Pacific Ocean, constitutes a primary driver of interannual climate variability on a global scale. Characterized by its warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases, ENSO involves significant anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a concomitant disruption of the Pacific trade wind system, which ordinarily governs oceanic upwelling and global atmospheric circulation. This cutting-edge research synthesizes a comprehensive body of existing knowledge, derived from an exhaustive literature review across prominent academic and research repositories, to delineate the complex interplay between El Nino and La Nina and their far-reaching impacts on worldwide weather regimes and climate patterns. The study elucidates the mechanisms through which ENSO-induced perturbations in oceanic upwelling and the resultant SST anomalies act as critical instigators of global extreme weather events. The analysis shows that a significant reorganization of tropical convective patterns occurs during El Nino occurrences due to the unusual eastward displacement of warm oceanic waters. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and along the western coast of South America, this eastward shift increases precipitation, which frequently results in episodes of catastrophic floods and coastal erosion. On the other hand, in the western Pacific, which includes places like Australia and Indonesia, it suppresses rainfall, which frequently leads to severe and protracted drought conditions, water scarcity, and increased wildfire hazards. Moreover, the course and intensity of upper-level jet streams are altered by these ENSO-driven changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. In the Northern Hemisphere winter, El Nino conditions are associated with the development of the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, which typically manifests as milder winter temperatures across western North America and Canada, while the southeastern United States experiences increased rainfall and cooler temperatures. The study also highlights the observed attenuation of the Indian monsoon rainfall during El Nino events, underscoring the extensive reach of ENSO's atmospheric teleconnections. Conversely, the La Niña phase, characterized by anomalously cool SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, generally intensifies the Walker circulation. In Australia and Southeast Asia, this intensification frequently results in increased monsoonal rainfall, raising the risk of flooding. At the same time, La Nina's influence frequently causes extended periods of dryness and drought-like conditions in places like Peru and Ecuador along the western coast of South America. While the Pacific Northwest and western Canada typically experience harsher and stormier winter conditions, the Southern United States frequently experiences winter droughts during La Nina episodes. Notably, because of less vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic basin, La Nina is often linked to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. This research emphasizes that both El Nino and La Nina serve as significant amplifiers of natural climate variability, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events globally. In certain places, El Nino can make heat waves and heavy rains worse, but in other places, it can make droughts and wildfires more likely. More active Atlantic hurricane seasons and a higher danger of flooding in Australia and Southeast Asia are associated with La Nina. Developing successful adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract ENSO's detrimental global climatic effects requires an understanding of the complex dynamics of ENSO, including its teleconnections and impacts on temperature, precipitation, and storm activity, especially in the context of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Clarifying the intricate relationship between ENSO and climate change, enhancing the accuracy and lead time of ENSO forecasts by integrating observational data and improved climate models, and examining the regional implications and predictability of ENSO-linked extreme weather events for better disaster preparedness and resilience should be the main goals of future research.

For the past few decades, there has been much alarmist talk by “climatologists” who claim that the world is getting warmer and we’re all gonna die. (Yes, we are all gonna die, regardless of whether or not there is any change in climate.) They point to a (slight) increase in the average recorded temperatures around the globe as proof of their theory than advance more theories based on computer models advocating that the rate of warming is increasing and when it reaches certain levels in 20-50 years all kinds of things are going to happen, all bad. Personally, I have my doubts. Let me mention that while I’m not a meteorologist, I know something about the weather. As a professional pilot with over 16,000 hours in the air, I was required to have more than a basic knowledge of weather as it pertains to aviation (all weather does) and was tested on that knowledge at various times during my career. I was required by Federal Aviation regulations to check the current observations at my desti...

We use high-resolution (4.4 km) numerical simulations of tropical cyclones to produce exceedance probability estimates for extreme wind (gust) speeds over Bangladesh. For the first time, we estimate equivalent return periods up to and including a 1-in-200 year event, in a spatially coherent manner over all of Bangladesh, by using generalised additive models. We show that some northern provinces, up to 200 km inland, may experience conditions equal to or exceeding a very severe cyclonic storm event (maximum wind speeds in ≥ 64 kn) with a likelihood equal to coastal regions less than 50 km inland. For the most severe super cyclonic storm events (≥ 120 kn), event exceedance probabilities of 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 events remain limited to the coastlines of southern provinces only. We demonstrate how the Bayesian interpretation of the generalised additive model can facilitate a transparent decision-making framework for tropical cyclone warnings.

Understanding extreme precipitation under changing climatic conditions is crucial to manage weather-and flood-related hazards. Global and regional climate models are able to provide coarse scale information on future conditions under different emission scenarios, but large uncertainties affect the projected precipitation amounts, extremes in particular, so that frequency analyses cannot be quantitatively trusted. This study uses, for the first time, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach to directly exploit synoptic scale information, better represented by climate models, for obtaining projections of future extreme precipitation frequency.

At present, there is little guidance on how to communicate the dangers relating to hot weather events and on how to better prepare for them. Social responses to hot weather risks need to be a priority as populations around the world become more exposed to these under a changing climate. In this commentary, we argue that policy interventions focused on improving resilience to hot weather need to be more closely aligned with broader sustainability challenges and more effectively incorporate communication, behaviour, and social insights. With a particular focus on the UK, we highlight the risks of not taking these into account and outline ways in which policy-making on hot weather events could be improved, by drawing on international best practice and supporting decision-making within a range of relevant institutions across the health, transport and housing sectors.

The adoption of conservation tillage practices such as ridge till, mulch till, or no-till has been shown to reduce soil erosion. An additional benefit of these conservation practices is that they also increase soil moisture. Therefore, these practices appear to be a method that agricultural producers can use to reduce their risk associated with abnormally dry or wet conditions (i.e., drought or flood). Given the large amount of money spent by the USDA on crop insurance indemnity and ad-hoc disaster relief payments, practices that reduce the risk of drought to the farmer should be strongly encouraged. Using SUR estimation with random effects, the paper uses panel data to measure the impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of conservation tillage. Panel data allows the identification of differences in adoption rates as a function of the severity of the drought or flood event. The adoption of no-till, alternative conservation tillage, and reduced till are estimated relative to conventional tillage. Both extremely dry and extremely wet conditions are found to increase the adoption of conservation tillage; while extremely wet conditions increase the adoption of both no-till and other conservation tillage practices.

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.

Extremely wet winters resulting from one or multiple precipitation events can contribute to flooding leading to severe societal, natural, and economic impacts. When such extremely wet conditions occur simultaneously at multiple locations within the same region, their impacts may be enhanced and lead to extreme cumulative losses (Leonard et al., 2014). In fact, widespread extreme events can affect the ability of governments and international (re-)insurance companies to respond to the emergency, given that resources and funds need to be provided at multiple locations and industrial sectors simultaneously (Enríquez et al., 2020; Kemter et al., 2020; Zscheischler et al., 2020). Recent extreme events showed that, as a result of persistent atmospheric conditions, extremely wet winters and associated flooding can affect multiple countries simultaneously and put high pressure on railway/road networks and transnational risk-reduction mechanisms (

We apply a Lagrangian-based moisture back trajectory method on two reanalysis datasets to determine the moisture sources for wet season precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula, defined as land on the Asian Continent to the south of the Turkish border and west of Iran. For this purpose, we make use of evaporative source region between 65°W–120°E and 30°S–60°N which is divided into twelve sub-regions. Our results indicate a north to south spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the characteristics of dominant moisture sources. In the north, moisture for precipitation is mostly sourced from European land and major water bodies, such as Mediterranean and Caspian Seas. Areas further south dependent on moisture transport from the Western Indian Ocean and parts of the African continent. El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO) oscillation exhibits an overall positive but sub-seasonally varying influence on the precipitation variability over the region with mostly positive moisture anomalies form...

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to natural hazards (e.g. floods and debris flows) and contribute to water resources. Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns govern the hydrological, geomorphological, and societal effects of HPEs. Thus, a correct characterisation and prediction of rainfall patterns is crucial for coping with these events. Information from rain gauges is generally limited due to the sparseness of the networks, especially in the presence of sharp climatic gradients. Forecasting HPEs depends on the ability of weather models to generate credible rainfall patterns. This paper characterises rainfall patterns during HPEs based on high-resolution weather radar data and evaluates the performance of a high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these patterns. We identified 41 HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean from a 24-year radar record using local thresholds based on quantiles for different durations, classified these events into two synoptic systems, and ran model simulations for them. For most durations, HPEs near the coastline were characterised by the highest rain intensities; however, for short durations, the highest rain intensities were found for the inland desert. During the rainy season, the rain field's centre of mass progresses from the sea inland. Rainfall during HPEs is highly localised in both space (less than a 10 km decorrelation distance) and time (less than 5 min). WRF model simulations were accurate in generating the structure and location of the rain fields in 39 out of 41 HPEs. However, they showed a positive bias relative to the radar estimates and exhibited errors in the spatial location of the heaviest precipitation. Our results indicate that convection-permitting model outputs can provide reliable climatological analyses of heavy precipitation patterns; conversely, flood forecasting requires the use of ensemble simulations to overcome the spatial location errors.

Understanding extreme precipitation under changing climatic conditions is crucial to manage weather-and flood-related hazards. Global and regional climate models are able to provide coarse scale information on future conditions under different emission scenarios, but large uncertainties affect the projected precipitation amounts, extremes in particular, so that frequency analyses cannot be quantitatively trusted. This study uses, for the first time, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach to directly exploit synoptic scale information, better represented by climate models, for obtaining projections of future extreme precipitation frequency.

On the evening of October 12, 2013 a very severe tropical cyclone, Phailin, brought damaging winds of more than 220 kilometres per hour (km/h), storm surges of up to 3.5 metres and torrential downpours to the eastern Indian states of Odisha. The impacts of Phailin and ensuing floods affected more than 13.2 million people, and caused enormous damage .The estimated total damage to houses, crops and public properties was 14373.47 crore. There was massive destruction of power supply system, communication and transportation system. However, early warning alerts, disseminated four days before landfall of Phailin, allowed for the evacuation and relocation of approximately 1.2 million people, resulting in the largest evacuation operation in India in 23 years. A total of 21 lives were lost as a result of the cyclone and an additional 23 lives due to severe flash flooding in the aftermath of the cyclone. A comparable cyclone, Cyclone 05B, hit Odisha in 1999 with winds of up to 260 km/h, but had a much more than 10,000 lives were lost. Early warning using multiple channels of communication and timely action saved lives during Phailin. Government cooperation, preparedness at the community level, and lessons learned from Cyclone 05B contributed to the successful evacuation operation, effective preparation activities and impact mitigation. This event exhibits the importance, benefits and effectiveness of the use of early warning for a massive disaster. The lesson learnt from this event can act as a guide for development of plan for management of other similar disasters in future.

On the evening of October 12, 2013 a very severe tropical cyclone, Phailin, brought damaging winds of more than 220 kilometres per hour (km/h), storm surges of up to 3.5 metres and torrential downpours to the eastern Indian states of Odisha. The impacts of Phailin and ensuing floods affected more than 13.2 million people, and caused enormous damage. The estimated total damage to houses, crops and public properties was 14373.47 crore. There was massive destruction of power supply system, communication and transportation system.

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Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies of inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible amount of bogus tracks which can be perceived as "false positives", or more generally as CDTM artifacts, i.e. tracks of weak atmospheric features that do not correspond to large or mesoscale vortices. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of 1

Numerous disasters over the past several years have revealed the differential impacts due to social structure, economic conditions and level of infrastructure. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from potential cyclones. In this regard, a method is proposed for quantifying the socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone in the districts of the eastern coastal states. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India (2011) at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using factor analysis, specifically principal component analysis that represents the socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores have been mapped for spatial analysis using Jenk's natural break technique. Utilizing socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability indices, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated, which are expected to face substantial amount of challenges in coping with cyclones. The highly vulnerable districts require strategies to address the various aspects of socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability. The indices and maps produced in this paper could not only be incorporated for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

Daily precipitation totals and daily minimum and maximum temperatures from 21 Polish stations were used to calculate records of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes in the period 1951-2006. Because the distributions of extreme indices are generally far from normal, especially for indices defined as day counts, the popular trend estimators like linear trend calculated by the least mean squares method are not robust. The Kendall tau test and Sen's trend estimators were used and their results were compared with those obtained by more traditional methods. A statistically significant increase of annual frequencies of summer and hot days and the decrease in the frequencies of ice and frost days and in the length of the frost season has occurred in Poland. All percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature have increased also, but the increases of extreme percentiles (1, 5, 95 and 99) were not significant especially according to the Kendall tau test. Trends of monthl...

Destroy this report when no longer Do not return it to the originator. needed. The findings in this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. The citation in this report of trade names of commercially available products does not constitute official endorsement or approval of the use of such products.

Category 5 Typhoon Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines) made landfall in the Philippines on the 8 th November 2013 at almost the peak of its power, devastating the islands of Leyte and Samar, amongst other places. The present paper analyses the degree of awareness and preparedness of the islands of Samar and Leyte in the Philippines against storm surges prior to the arrival of typhoon Haiyan. The analysis was based on field surveys and interviewed with a variety of local residents and officials conducted during field surveys in the months after the event. One of the key problems identified during the interviews was how people were not able to clearly conceptualize the concept of storm surge. Despite receiving storm surge warnings it appears that many residents and local authorities "under-estimated" the event and thought that they could evacuate at a later stage or during the storm itself. The results clearly highlight the need for better education and for development strategies in the region to focus on improving the resilience of local inhabitants.

This paper examines common sense representations of the environment with specific reference to climate. Such systems of representation are emergent phenomena, mediated by specific social contexts and evolving in response to different societal events and natural constraints. It is asked what characteristic features are assigned to climate in past and modern society. The conjecture is that our understanding of climate is strongly influenced by experiences with extreme climatic events. Extremes are occasions that reinforce trust and confidence in the normality of climate. Thus, the ways in which extremes are dealt w~t h and expla~ned by society provides an important clue for the semantics of environmental representation generally.

A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesserknown portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature b3°C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0°C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

The changes in the characteristics of heatwaves over Romania have been analyzed using the excess heat factor calculated for two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the EURO-CORDEX project. The changes were evaluated for the near future (2021–2050) using the historical period (1971–2000) as reference. The frequency of occurrence and the duration of heatwaves is projected to increase for both climate scenarios in particular over southern Romania. In this region, the percentage of change in the near future for the number of heatwaves is between 50 and 60% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Also for the same region, the duration of heatwaves will increase by 30–50% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. These results indicate that the human exposure to heatwaves will increase in Romania in the near future. To increase awareness on heatwaves and their impact, we propose a series of immediate actions that include (1) improving th...

The weather-economy nexus has long had close attention from scholars and policy makers as weather hazards often have a significant impact on socioeconomic outcomes of populations around the world. A continuous understanding of this relationship is vital for societies to deal well with weather risk. This is particularly important in relation to climate change, which is likely to worsen the consequences of extreme weather as their frequencies and intensities increase. This thesis consists of three essays that demonstrate the adverse effects of extreme weather episodes on the local economy, using publicly available weather data and economic data sources. The essays use Indonesia setting as a case study, but the findings are likely to also be relevant for the situation in other developing countries located in the tropics that face similar socioeconomic challenges dealing with weather risk. The first essay, having identified the robust link between drought and variations of agricultural ...

Destroy this report when no longer Do not return it to the originator. needed. The findings in this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. The citation in this report of trade names of commercially available products does not constitute official endorsement or approval of the use of such products.

The changes in the characteristics of heatwaves over Romania have been analyzed using the excess heat factor calculated for two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the EURO-CORDEX project. The changes were evaluated for the near future (2021–2050) using the historical period (1971–2000) as reference. The frequency of occurrence and the duration of heatwaves is projected to increase for both climate scenarios in particular over southern Romania. In this region, the percentage of change in the near future for the number of heatwaves is between 50 and 60% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Also for the same region, the duration of heatwaves will increase by 30–50% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 60–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. These results indicate that the human exposure to heatwaves will increase in Romania in the near future. To increase awareness on heatwaves and their impact, we propose a series of immediate actions that include (1) improving th...

The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and...

High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesserknown portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature b3°C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0°C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

A modeling framework is formulated and applied to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological regime of two catchments in a convective rainfall environment with respect to projected climate change. The study uses likely rainfall scenarios with high spatiotemporal resolution that are dependent on projected changes in the driving regional meteorological synoptic systems. The framework was applied to a case study in two medium-sized Mediterranean catchments in Israel, affected by convective rainfall, by combining the HiReS-WG rainfall generator and the SAC-SMA hydrological model. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime was examined for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, comparing the historical (beginning of the 21st century) and future (mid-21st-century) periods from three General Circulation Models simulations available from CMIP5. Focusing on changes in the occurrence frequency of regional synoptic systems and their impact on rainfall and streamflow patt...

The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and...

High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesserknown portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature b3°C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0°C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

This report describes the current scientific knowledge of extreme weather and climate events in Europe for the following variables: temperature, precipitation, hail, and drought (with the following types of drought: meteorological, hydrological and soil moisture). The content summarises key literature drawn from peer reviewed journals and other sources (business and government reports), and builds upon the synthesised results presented in international assessments such as IPCC reports. It describes the recorded observations and modelled projections for extreme events including definitions, frequency, trends, spatial and temporal distribution. The report also presents an overview of the indices used to characterise extreme events as well as their main uses, before going on to describe the datasets where they are recorded, and provides information on the strengths and weaknesses of the indices and the datasets. Extra consideration is given to indices that are relevant to socio-economi...

Numerous disasters over the past several years have revealed the differential impacts due to social structure, economic conditions and level of infrastructure. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from potential cyclones. In this regard, a method is proposed for quantifying the socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone in the districts of the eastern coastal states. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India (2011) at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using factor analysis, specifically principal component analysis that represents the socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability to potential cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores have been mapped for spatial analysis using Jenk's natural break technique. Utilizing socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability indices, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated, which are expected to face substantial amount of challenges in coping with cyclones. The highly vulnerable districts require strategies to address the various aspects of socioeconomic and infrastructural vulnerability. The indices and maps produced in this paper could not only be incorporated for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

The impacts of hazard events such as extreme rainfall, heatwaves, and droughts are substantial and represent an increasing threat over India. Effective adaptations to these hazards require an in-depth understanding of their physical and socioeconomic drivers. While hazard characteristic models have been substantially improved, compelling evidence of the spatio-temporal analysis of social vulnerability (SoV) throughout India are still lacking. Here, we provide the first analysis of the SoV to disasters at a national-scale for the past two decades using a robust data envelopment analysis framework, which eliminates subjectivity associated with indicator weighting. An interesting result is that SoV has decreased over past decade, which is primarily due to an increase in literacy rate and conversion rate of marginalized groups to main working population, and a decrease in child population due to use of birth control. Contrarily, while analyzing hydro-climatic hazards over India, we noti...

Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies of inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible amount of bogus tracks which can be perceived as "false positives", or more generally as CDTM artifacts, i.e. tracks of weak atmospheric features that do not correspond to large or mesoscale vortices. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of 1

While the eastern part of coastal belt of India is considered as one of the most cyclone prone areas in the world, Odisha is considered as more vulnerable as compared to the other eastern states of India. Cyclones can be detrimental to the environment. The literature on considerable impacts of cyclones on the human lives, infrastructure and environment has been reported scantily. So this review is based on the major cyclonic storms hitted to Odisha coast and cyclone resistant plants found in Odisha. In this review it was found that the cyclone resistant trees like Azedirachta indica, Millettia pinnata (L.) Panigrahi, Mimusops elengi L., Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels, Alstonia scholaris (L.) R. Br., Senegalia catechu var. (L.F.) P. J. H. Hurter & Mabb., Terminalia arjuna, Saraca asoca, Terminalia chebula Retz., Terminalia bellirica, Dalbergia sissoo Roxb. ex DC. Magnolia champaca, Ficus racemosa L. can be planted for getting protection from damage. Cyclone resistant plants can be selec...

As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In order to assess changes in extreme maximum and minimum air temperatures, Regional Climate Models outputs and observed data series have been analyzed and a new technique for the assessment of climate model uncertainty has been developed. Considering different radiation scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes as well as to assess their evolution in time, allowing at the same time to estimate the uncertainty range of the model. Extending the analysis to different climate models it will be possible to take into account in climate change impact study also model uncertainty in response to same radiative forcing.

The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and...

Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters, as it is determined by many physical processes. The spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation have been significantly affected by climate change during the past decades. Analysis of precipitation trends is challenging, especially in regions such as Greece, which is characterized by complex topography and includes several ungauged areas. With this study, we aim to shed new light on the climatic characteristics and inter-annual trends of precipitation over Greece. For this purpose, we used ERA5 monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 to estimate annual Theil–Sen trends and Mann–Kendall significance over Greece and surrounding areas. Additionally, in order to analyze and model the nonlinear relationships of monthly precipitation time series, we used generalized additive models (GAMs). The results indicated significant declining inter-annual trends of areal precipitation over the study area. Declining trends were ...

We describe weaknesses in using deterministic methods widespread power outages. To maintain system reliability for performing security assessment for bulk transmission systems. under uncertainty, studies are perfom& to aid in operating We also present motivation for using probabilistic risk and provide and planning decisions. The current practice fundamental relations for making the associated calculations. The deterministic methods with significant safety margins to benefits and applications of using a risk index for security "all" the possible unknown uncertainties. This means that assessment are discussed, and an illustration is provided for line overload security assessment in the operational context. power engineers propose a strong system and then operate it Keywords: transmission, security assessment, probabilistic risk, with large security Though investment and overload, voltage security, dynamic security. operational costs are relatively high, this has resulted in a

Urbanisation is set to continue rapidly in the 21 century, with a further two and half billion projected to join the urban population by mid-century. Since the founding of a trading port at the tip of Manhattan, New York City has grown through self-organisation from the bottom-up, met forcefully by the top-down implementation of the 1811 grid, and has spread to the surrounding boroughs to become the urban example that led the twentieth century. In the first two decades of the 21 century, it has faced extreme tests of its resilience and vulnerability, with the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the financial crisis born of the Wall Street crash in 2007, and the climatological hazard of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The theory of social-ecological resilience was developed to explore complex, adaptive systems, and their capability to deal with shock and surprise, originally within the context of ecosystems in the natural world. Studies of cities have taken on this theory, and now talk...

precipitation is a variable whose value, intensity, and type changes in temporal and spatial dimensions. the occurrence of heavy rainfall is an aspect of these changes which is a dangerous factor in the incidence of natural disasters such as flooding. In this study, with the aim of investigating the behavior of precipitation and discharge of Babol Roud watershed, the Talar station was selected as an indicator station. Then, the cycles governing precipitation and discharge parameters of the station were estimated at the annual scale (1976 - 2011) based on the spectral analysis technique. The results of spectral analysis on time series of discharge and precipitation at a 95% certainty level indicate the existence of a common annual 2 cycle in discharge and annual precipitation. The coincidence of a 2 years old significant cycle in the time series of precipitation and discharge means that in 2 years the repetition of annual precipitation events affects annual discharge. The Extraction ...