Trend Estimation

The problem of correcting the tide gauge records for the vertical land motion upon which the gauges are settled has only been partially solved. At best, the analyses so far have included model corrections for one of the many processes that can affect the land stability, namely the Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). An alternative approach is to measure (rather than to model) the rates of vertical land motion at the tide gauges by means of space geodesy. A dedicated GPS processing strategy is implemented to correct the tide gauges records, and thus to obtain a GPS-corrected set of 'absolute' or geocentric sea level trends. The results show a reduced dispersion of the estimated sea level trends after application of the GPS corrections. They reveal that the reference frame implementation is now achieved within the millimetre accuracy on a weekly basis. Regardless of the application, whether local or global, we have shown that GPS data analysis have reached the maturity to provide useful information to separate land motion from oceanic processes recorded by the tide gauges or to correct these latter. For comparison purposes, we computed the global average of sea level change according to Douglas (2001) rules, whose estimate is 1.84 ± 0.35 mm/yr after correction for the GIA effect (Peltier 2001). We obtain a value of 1.31 ± 0.30 mm/yr, a value which appears to resolve the 'sea level enigma' .

We propose a sieve bootstrap procedure for time series with a deterministic trend. The sieve for constructing the bootstrap is based on nonparametric trend estimation and autoregressive approximation for some noise process. The bootstrap scheme itself does i.i.d. resampling of estimated innovations from fitted autoregressive models. We show the validity and indicate second-order correctness of such sieve bootstrap approximations for the limiting distribution of nonparametric linear smoothers. The resampling can then be used to construct nonparametric confidence intervals for the underlying trend. In particular, we show asymptotic validity for constructing confidence bands which are simultaneous within a neighborhood of size of the order of the smoothing bandwidth. Our resampling procedure yields satisfactory results in a simulation study for finite sample sizes. We also apply it to the longest series of total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland) and find a significant decreasing trend.

We propose a sieve bootstrap procedure for time series with a deterministic trend. The sieve for constructing the bootstrap is based on nonparametric trend estimation and autoregressive approximation for some noise process. The bootstrap scheme itself does i.i.d. resampling of estimated innovations from fitted autoregressive models. We show the validity and indicate second-order correctness of such sieve bootstrap approximations for the limiting distribution of nonparametric linear smoothers. The resampling can then be used to construct nonparametric confidence intervals for the underlying trend. In particular, we show asymptotic validity for constructing confidence bands which are simultaneous within a neighborhood of size of the order of the smoothing bandwidth. Our resampling procedure yields satisfactory results in a simulation study for finite sample sizes. We also apply it to the longest series of total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland) and find a significant decreasing trend.

We used hourly counts of Red-tailed Hawks (Bufeo jumaicensis) migrating at Hawk Mountain during the autumns of 1992, 1993, and 1994, to examine the possibility that the extent to which time of day and local weather parameters affected the numbers of birds seen at the site varied over the course of autumn migration. Data were analyzed separately for early-, mid-, and late-season periods of migration. High versus low winds, following versus opposing winds, low versus high relative humidity, and high versus low barometric pressure were associated with increased hourly passage rates of Red-tailed Hawks. Relative humidity had a greater effect during early-season migration. Wind speed and wind direction had greater effects during late-season migration. We suggest that shifts in the extent to which weather affects the numbers of Red-tailed Hawks seen at Hawk Mountain Sanctuary result from seasonal shifts in the species' dependence on thermal- versus slope-soaring. Received 6 March 1996...

ABsTRAcr.--Cold-front passage has long been associated with south-bound raptor migration in northeastern North America. We used Hawk Mountain Sanctuary's 55-year database to calculate abundance indices of 14 raptor species at the site. These indices, together with data taken from coincidental U.S. Department of Commerce daily weather maps, were used to investigate the extent to which raptor migration at Hawk Mountain is associated with the passage of cold fronts. Daily abundance indices for 12 of 14 raptor species exhibited significant increases during one or more of the three days following frontal passage. Three basic patterns emerged, which differed in the number of days after frontal passage on which peak migration occurred. The patterns fit the flight behavior of the species involved. We failed to detect a long-term linear trend in numbers of fall-season cold fronts at the site. Stepwise multipleregression analyses revealed that annual-abundance indices were not influenced by annual variation in the numbers of cold fronts passing the Sanctuary at the time of fall migration. Overall, our analyses confirm the results of earlier, short-term studies demonstrating withinyear effects of frontal passage on raptor migration. Our failure to detect among-year effects of frontal passage rates on annual counts of raptors migrating past the site supports the notion that cold fronts enhance fall migration rather than simply making the birds more visible to observers at such times by forcing them closer to the watch site.

Las investigaciones sobre el comportamiento de caza y dieta del gavilán de cooper (Astur cooperii) en México son escasas, por lo que falta mayor información y observaciones al respecto. En este trabajo presentamos la primera observación documentada de depredación de la garcita verde (Butorides virescens) por el gavilán de cooper en vegetación riparia dentro del Cañón de Fernández, Durango, México. El 30 de enero del 2014, a las 11:30 h, registramos un juvenil de gavilán de cooper, el cual capturó un adulto de garcita verde en los márgenes del río Nazas, consumió la presa parcialmente, y posteriormente la abandonó para desplazarse a otro sitio. Inspeccionando el cadáver, se identificaron los rasgos de caza y se corroboró la especie depredada. Esta observación representa la primera de su tipo y contribuye al conocimiento de la dieta alimenticia y comportamiento de caza del gavilán de cooper en invierno en el norte de México.

Background: Several compounds contained in coffee have been found to suppress carcinogenesis in experimental studies. We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis to assess the impact of coffee consumption on the risk of endometrial cancer. Materials and methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for studies published up to August 2016. Using random effects models, we estimated summary relative risks (RR) for cohort studies and odds ratios (OR) for case-control studies with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Dose-response analyses were conducted by using generalized least square trend estimation. Results: We identified 12 cohort studies and 8 casecontrol studies eligible for inclusion, contributing with 11,663 and 2,746 endometrial cancer cases, respectively. The summary RR for highest compared with lowest coffee intake was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.81; p heterogeneity D 0.09, I 2 D 32%). The corresponding summary RR among cohort studies was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.85; p heterogeneity D 0.14, I 2 D 31.9%) and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.53-0.76; p heterogeneity D 0.57, I 2 D 0%) for case-control studies. One-cup increment per day was associated with 3% risk reduction (95% CI: 2-4%) in cohort studies and 12% (95% CI: 5-18%) in case-control studies. After pooling the results from 5 cohort studies, the association remained significant only in women with body mass index over 30 (RR D 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61-0.81). Conclusion: The results from our metaanalysis strengthen the evidence of a protective effect of coffee consumption on the risk of EC and further suggest that increased coffee intake might be particularly beneficial for women with obesity.

In 2005 the National Research Council (NRC) analyzed right-to-carry (RTC) laws, also known as shall-issue laws, which relax the requirements necessary to acquire a permit to carry a concealed weapon. The NRC essentially concluded that the data were not sufficient to determine whether RTC laws increased or decreased crime. However, a recent working paper from Abhay Aneja, John J. Donohue, and Alexandria Zhang (hereafter "ADZ") re-evaluates the NRC analysis and purports to find evidence that RTC laws increase murder, rape, robbery, and assault (ADZ 2014). ADZ's paper, issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research, has received substantial attention. In this article we re-analyze that paper from ADZ, using ADZ's own data and regression models, and contend that such conclusions are misleading.

This paper describes the key features of the Moroccan business cycles during the period 1980:q1-2012:q1. In particular, this paper identifies the chronologies in classical and growth cycles (expansion and contraction phases and full cycles in real gross domestic product). Using the modified BB algorithm, I have found eight business cycles and the ninth is not yet achieved. Then, I have would to analysis of the main features in these cycles by applying the method of Harding and Pagan ( ) which has shown that the Moroccan economy characterized by the average cumulative gain is more important than the cumulative loss and by the domination of expansion phases.

We present a detailed analysis of a rare cross‐taxa native species phenology dataset (plant flowering, insect first sighting, and amphibian first sighting) from Mohonk Lake, NY. This dataset is highly unusual in North America for its longevity of record, consistency of methodology and location, diversity of species available, and availability of local daily meteorological data. For each phenology series, we examined the flowering and first sighting Julian calendar dates for the existence of temporal trends. Only one of the five animal species (katydid) showed any evidence for a significant trend in first sighting. In contrast, the plant species showed a rich mixture of temporal trends in flowering that could be divided into four classes: woody plant–no trend, woody plant–negative trend, herbaceous plant–negative trend, and herbaceous plant–positive trend. Many of the trends were found to be statistically significant and robust to the method of trend estimation. The data within each ...

There is no single reference dataset of long-term global upper-air temperature observations, although several groups have developed datasets from radiosonde and satellite observations for climate-monitoring purposes. The existence of multiple data products allows for exploration of the uncertainty in signals of climate variations and change. This paper examines eight upper-air temperature datasets and quantifies the magnitude and uncertainty of various climate signals, including stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric ENSO signals, stratospheric warming following three major volcanic eruptions, the abrupt tropospheric warming of 1976-77, and multidecadal temperature trends. Uncertainty estimates are based both on the spread of signal estimates from the different observational datasets and on the inherent statistical uncertainties of the signal in any individual dataset. The large spread among trend estimates suggests that using multiple datasets to characterize large-scale upperair temperature trends gives a more complete characterization of their uncertainty than reliance on a single dataset. For other climate signals, there is value in using more than one dataset, because signal strengths vary. However, the purely statistical uncertainty of the signal in individual datasets is large enough to effectively encompass the spread among datasets. This result supports the notion of an 11th climate-monitoring principle, augmenting the 10 principles that have now been generally accepted (although not generally implemented) by the climate community. This 11th principle calls for monitoring key climate variables with multiple, independent observing systems for measuring the variable, and multiple, independent groups analyzing the data.

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (À0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] ¼ À2.8, þ1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI ¼ À21.1, þ2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

Along with coauthors, John J. Donohue of the Stanford Law School regularly releases empirical research finding that certain laws concerning the carrying of firearms, those known as right-to-carry or RTC laws, increase violent crime. We have engaged with the previous releases to show that the latest findings are not robust, and here we do so again. This time we address something maintained in the previous releases, namely the weighting of fixed-effects regressions by population, and something that is new to the last two versions, namely a synthetic control procedure. Perhaps after another round or two it will be time to recap all the robustness criticisms to date, but here we confine ourselves to the two new criticisms. Donohue, Abhay Aneja, and Kyle Weber (hereafter DAW) have produced two revisions (2018a; b) to their 2017 working paper, which itself is part of a series of papers dating back 15 years (

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

ABSTRACr.-Counts of migrating hawks were initiated in 1934 at Hawk Mountain and, except for 1943-1945, have continued to the present. We analyzed the data from 1934-1986 by a standardized sample period appropriate for each species. Counts of several species known to be susceptible to detrimental effects of organochlorine pesticides crashed between 1946-1971. All of these populations recovered subsequently. The immature-age classes and the species with the shortest generation times recovered first after DDT use diminished in North America. These observations mostly conform to predictions made on the basis of the adverse effects of DDT and metabolites on raptors. We suggest that standardized migration counts reflect qualitative trends of most raptor populations that pass over Hawk Mountain in the autumn. Currently, populations of many species appear to be either stable or recovering from the effects of organochlorines. Possible exceptions are eastern populations of the Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), American Kestrel (Falco sparverius), Broad-winged Hawk (B. platypterus), Red-shouldered Hawk (B. lineatus), and Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), which may be decreasing.

Between 1981 and 2003, 269 visits were made to 72 caves in Indiana to count hibernating bats. Nearly 2,000,000 bats of seven species were counted: Indiana myotis (Myotis sodalis), little brown myotis (M. lucifugus), northern myotis (M. septentrionalis), gray myotis (M. grisescens), eastern pipistrelle {Pipistrellus subflavus), big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus), and silver-haired bat {Lasicmyctehs noctivagans i. Indiana myotis were found on 214 (80%) visits and in 30 (42%) caves. The statewide winter population of Indiana myotis found in 1981 (148,890) declined to a low of 99,202 in 1985 before reaching a record high of 185,899 bats in 1999. At least 50,000 Indiana myotis were found in Ray's Cave and in Twin Domes Cave; 10,000-50,000 each in Wyandotte, Jug Hole, Batwing, Coon, and Grotto caves: 1000-10,000 bats in Parker's Pit Cave; 100-1000 in each of 12 caves, and <100 bats in 10 other caves. The number of Indiana myotis in Twin Domes and Batwing caves, the largest populations in 1981. decreased >50% during the last 23 years. Declines in these two hibernacula were more than offset by gains at Rays. Wyandotte, Jug Hole, Coon, and Grotto caves. Little brown myotis were found during 226 (84 r r) visits in 49 (68%) caves; wintering populations in Indiana appear to be increasing. Big brown bats were found in 40 caves (56%) during 156 (58%) visits. The eastern pipistrelle was found in more caves (/i = 61; 85%) and during more surveys (n = 234; 87%) than any other species. Northern myotis. gra\ m\otis. and silver-haired bats were encountered infrequently.

The ARIMA-model-based methodology of programs TRAMO and SEATS is applied for seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation of the exports, imports, and balance of trade Japanese series. The programs are used in an automatic mode, and the results are analyzed. It is shown how the SEATS output can be of help when discriminating among competing models. Finally, the example is used to discuss the important problem of the choice between direct and indirect adjustment of an aggregate. It is concluded that, because aggregation has a strong effect on the spectral shape of the series, and because seasonal adjustment is a non-linear transformation of the original series, direct adjustment is preferable, even at the cost of destroying identities between the original series.

Shipping and shipping services are a key industry of great importance to the economy of Cyprus and the wider European Union. Assessment, management and future steering of the industry, and its associated economy, is carried out by a range of organisations and is of direct interest to a number of stakeholders. This article presents an analysis of shipping credit flow data: an important and archetypal series whose analysis is hampered by rapid changes of variance. Our analysis uses the recently developed data-driven Haar-Fisz transformation that enables accurate trend estimation and successful prediction in these kinds of situation. Our trend estimation is augmented by bootstrap confidence bands, new in this context. The good performance of the data-driven Haar-Fisz transform contrasts with the poor performance exhibited by popular and established variance stabilisation alternatives: the Box-Cox, logarithm and square root transformations.

This book is a review and description of the state-of-the-art methods of tree-ring analy~is with specific emphasis on applications in the environmental sciences. Traditionally, methods of tree-ring analysis, or more properly in this case methods 0/ dendrochronology, were developed and used for dating archaeological and historical structures and for reconstructing past climates. The classic book Tree Rings and Climate, by H.C. Fritts, published in 1976, provided a superb introduction to the science and an in-depth description of techniques useful for extracting climatic information from tree rings. This book, which was published by Academic Press, is sadly out of print and, even though only 12 years old, limited in its methods and applications. This is owing to the extremely rapid development of the science since the 1970s. Only recently have tree rings as environmental sensors been fully recognized as a valuable tool in detecting environmental change. For example, treering measurements have been critically important in studies of forest decline in Europe and North America. There are also attempts to use tree-ring analysis for ecological prognosis to solve large-scale regional problems including the sustainability of water supplies, prediction of agricultural crops, and adoption of silvicultural measures in response to ecological changes. More speculatively, dendrochronological methods are also used for dating and evaluating some astrophysical phenomena and for indicating possible increase in the biospheric carrying capacity due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Such a wide range of application of modern dendrochronology beyond its traditional field has resulted in the development of various approaches. This has placed heavy demands on methodological unification and improvement. However, the principles and methods of tree-ring analysis are not widely known by scientists outside the field. In addition, papers on the application of tree-ring analysis are not always easily accessible as they are scattered in a wide range of journals, many of which are non-English. Therefore, an attempt to meet these vi Pre/au demands is being made through international cooperative efforts among the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and leading dendrochronological bodies, such as the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), the Dendrochronological Commission of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, the International Project in Dendrochronology (IPID) , as well as leading dendrochronology laboratories in countries around the world. As a result of these activities, an international network has been established, East-West collaboration of scientists has been fascilitated, several international workshops on dendrochronology (Albena, Bulgaria, 1985; Cracow, Poland, 1986; Irkutsk, USSR, 1987) have been organized, and, finally, this bookan international multi-author monograph, Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Scienceshas been prepared. The book begins by describing the historical development of dendrochronology in countries in the West and East, and in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Chapter 2 introduces and defines the most important principles and methods for primary data collection and sample treatment. Chapters 3 and 4 cover the basic principles of tree-ring chronology development and methods of climatic reconstruction. Chapter 5 treats tree-ring/environment interactions and detection. Chapter 6 describes applications of dendrochronology in the study of future environmental changes. Therefore, this book fills existing gaps by bringing together, in one volume, an updated range of principles, concepts, and methods that will introduce the reader to the vast possibilities of tree-ring analysis. The emphasis is on reviewing old and new methods for extracting environmental information from tree rings. Considerable effort has been made to provide examples of the different methods especially when they are new or not well known. The book is international in scope. Each chapter includes contributions from several scientists around the world with experience in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Scientists from the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, and France are chapter leaders. The authors and editors hope that this book will become a reference for foresters, climatologists, and broad-profile environmental scientists who are interested in applying the techniques of tree-ring analysis. As the importance of the science continues to expand in parallel with increasing global concerns about anthropogenic alterations of the environment, this book should appeal to a wide audience. This publication on dendrochronology so wide in scope, particularly with respect to the East-West dimension, is a first, and the authors and editors are aware that some gaps or inequalities in the reviews of separate methods or preferences given to their applications may occur. That is why a truly international bibliography is included to direct readers to the most recent data sources or method descriptions, and to provide more in-depth reading for the interested scientist. The editors remain indebted to colleagues at IIASA, particularly to Olivia Volker. Also, we are grateful for the help provided by two tree-ring laboratories in the USA: Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory (G.C. Jacoby) of Columbia University and the University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research Pre/tM:.e vii (H.C. Fritts, W.J. Robinson, and M.K. Hughes). In addition, we are indebted to colleagues from the Dendroclimatological Commission of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, who have played a very important role in the preparation of this book. The following people deserve special mention for their important contributions to the development, preparation, and critical review of this book.

The issue of a possible tide gauge datum discontinuity at Brest, caused by the bombing of the city in August 1944, is discussed. This issue is very important, as many scientists have used this long record to derive a long‐term sea level trend estimate for use within global sea level rise studies. A detailed analysis of historical leveling information, and comparison of sea level data between adjacent stations, proved to be worthwhile, even beyond this initial scope of the study: it led to an accurate datum connection between recently rediscovered 18th century sea level data (back to 1711) and those of the present day. The study provides additional evidence that the onset of recent rapid sea level rise most likely took place in the late 19th century, in agreement with the nearby Liverpool sea‐level record and with independent results from sediment cores collected in salt marshes located in both hemispheres.

The main aim of this communication is to present data on the status of 4 species of Accipitridae-Goshawk, Sparrowhawk, Lewant Sparrowhawk and Shikra at the territory of Georgia. Data were collected as a part of complex studies of birds of prey, which was carried out since 1973. Goshawk, Sparrowhawk and Lewant Sparrowhawk are breeding species. All known occupied territories were checked every year. Diets were analyzed by analyzing pellets and prey remains, collected at and around the nests and by means of direct observations in hunting territories. The identification of prey remains was undertaken with the help of prey specimens previously collected in the study area and collections kept in the Institute of Zoology. Data on numbers in some regions of Georgia were gathered by local volunteers participating in counts carried out in 1970-80s". TСО РОЧОrКХ НКЭК ШЧ distribution, habitat selection, numbers, breeding biology, seasonal movements, threats, mortality КrО ЩrОsОЧЭОН. GШsСКаФ КЧН SЩКrrШаСКаФ ЭrКНТЭТШЧКХХв ЮsОН Лв ХШМКХ ПКХМШЧОrs "ЛКгТОrТ" ТЧ Western Georgia to hunt Common Quail Coturnix coturnix. Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis). Uncommon in general, locally rare, year-round resident with local vertical movements (sub-species Accipiter gentilis caucasicus Kleinschmidt, 1923). For breeding prefers mature or middle-aged dense forests of various types. The present population may total to 240-250 breeding pairs.

Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and their diets have been studied extensively in North America and beyond. There have, however, been minimal studies of this species conducted in the state of Arizona, and none within Walnut Canyon National Monument. This ongoing study is focused on the diet of Golden Eagles that have nested in Walnut Canyon National Monument since at least 2008. Analysis of prey remains collected from their nests provides a baseline sample of their dietary habits, but also reveals a much higher proportion of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) than is reported from any other Golden Eagle study in the country, with vultures making up more than 24% of individuals identified from the assemblage.

We discuss the robust estimation of a linear trend if the noise follows an autoregressive process of first order. We find the ordinary repeated median to perform well except for negative correlations. In this case it can be improved by a Prais-Winsten transformation using a robust autocorrelation estimator. Zusammenfassung: Wir behandeln die robuste Schätzung eines linearen Trends bei autoregressiven Fehlern erster Ordnung. Die Repeated Median Regression zeigt ein gutes Verhalten bei positiven Korrelationen. Bei negativen Korrelationen ist eine Verbesserung durch eine Prais-Winsten Transformation mittels eines robusten Korrelationsschätzers möglich.

Point counts are a common method for sampling avian distribution and abundance. Although methods for estimating detection probabilities are available, many analyses use raw counts and do not correct for detectability. We use a removal model of detection within an N-mixture approach to estimate abundance trends corrected for imperfect detection. We compare the corrected trend estimates to those estimated from raw counts for 16 species using 15 years of monitoring data on three national forests in the western Great Lakes, USA. We also tested the effects of overdispersion by modeling both counts and removal mixtures under three statistical distributions: Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, and negative binomial. For most species, the removal model produced estimates of detection probability that conformed to expectations. For many species, but not all, estimates of trends were similar regardless of statistical distribution or method of analysis. Within a given combination of likelihood (counts vs. mixtures) and statistical distribution, trends usually differed by both stand type and national forest, with species showing declines in some stand types and increases in others. For three species, Brown Creeper, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and Black-throated Green Warbler, temporal patterns in detectability resulted in substantial differences in estimated trends under the removal mixtures compared to the analysis of raw counts. Overall, we found that the zero-inflated Poisson was the best distribution for our data, although the Poisson or negative binomial performed better for a few species. The similarity in estimated trends that we observed among counts and removal mixtures was probably a result of both experimental design and sampling effort. First, the study was originally designed to avoid confounding observer effects with habitats or time. Second, our time series is relatively long and our sample sizes within years are large.

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (À0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] ¼ À2.8, þ1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI ¼ À21.1, þ2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

Long-term, ground based in-situ observations of ozone (O 3) and its precursor gases nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and carbon monoxide (CO) from the four sites Hohenpeissenberg and Zugspitze (D), Sonnblick (A) and Jungfraujoch (CH) are presented for the period 1995-2007. These Central European alpine mountain observatories cover an altitude range of roughly 1000 to 3500 m. Comparable analytical methods and common quality assurance (QA) procedures are used at all sites. For O 3 and CO, calibration is linked to primary calibrations (O 3) or CO standards provided by the Central Calibration Laboratory (CCL) at NOAA/ESRL. All stations have been audited by the World Calibration Centre (WCC) for CO and O 3 (WCC-Empa; CH). Data from long-term measurements of NO 2 and CO are only available from Hohenpeissenberg and Jungfraujoch. Both sites show slightly decreasing mixing ratios of the primarily emitted NO 2 and the partly anthropogenically emitted CO between 1995 and 2007. The findings are generally consistent with shorter observation periods at Zugspitze and Sonnblick and thus are considered to represent regional changes in Central European atmospheric composition at this altitude range. Over the same period, 1995-2007, the O 3 mixing ratios have slightly increased at three of the four sites independent of wind sector. Trends are often more pronounced in winter and less in summer; highest declines of NO 2 and CO are observed in winter and the lowest in summer, whereas the strongest O 3 increase was detected in winter and lowest or even decline in summer, respectively. Weekly cycles demonstrate anthropogenic impact at all elevations with enhanced NO 2 on working days compared to weekends. Enhanced O 3

Urbanization is rapidly altering ecosystems worldwide, presenting both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Birds of prey, as top predators and indicators of environmental health, are particularly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances. This study investigates Urbanization and its impact on birds of prey in the Makurdi metropolis of Benue State, Nigeria, across several categories of land usage. The Timed Species Count technique was applied across various urban land-use types, including Highways, Residential areas, Tertiary institutions, Commercial centers, and the Airport. Diversity among avian species was assessed by means of the Shannon Diversity Index, Simpson's Index, Gini-Simpson Diversity Index, and Pielou's Evenness Index. Results indicate the occurrence of various, raptor species including the Lizard Buzzard, Black Kite, Marsh Harrier, African Goshawk, and Pearl Spotted Owlet. The Black Kite was the most abundant species, with the airport exhibiting the highest abundance of birds of prey. Infrastructure such as masts, electric poles, and rooftops were utilized by these birds for perching while tree species were used for nesting. Diversity indices varied across different land-use types, suggesting habitatspecific preferences among bird of prey species. It highlights the adaptability of some bird of prey species to urban environments, likely due to the availability of resources and nesting habitats. Although urbanization poses threats to biodiversity, birds of prey create new habitats within urban landscapes, contributing to their resilience. Understanding species habitat behavior is crucial for effective habitat management, conservation, and ecosystem preservation in the face of environmental changes. Urbanization influences the spatial arrangement and population size of raptors, with some species thriving in urban environments. The study underscores the importance of green spaces and noise levels in urban areas for avian diversity. Recommendations include the conservation of green areas and the implementation of measures to mitigate anthropogenic impacts on bird of prey populations.

The paper describes the applied seasonal adjustment procedures used for analysis of the financial time series compiled by SBP. We have applied the X-12-ARIMA method in adjusting five important financial series- currency in circulation, broad money, remittances, exports and imports (from the balance of payments data). Adjusted series were found to be satisfactory, with in the tests and practices followed in X-12-ARIMA.

The Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO, Spanish Institute of Oceanography) has maintained different monitoring programs in the Spanish Mediterranean waters (Western Mediterranean) since 1992. All these monitoring programs were unified in 2007 under the current program RADMED (series temporales de datos oceanográficos en el Mediterráneo), which is devoted to the in situ multidisciplinary sampling of the water column of coastal and open-sea waters by means of periodic oceanographic campaigns. These campaigns, together with a network of tide-gauges, are part of the IEO Observing system (IEOOS). In some cases, the temperature and salinity time series collected in the frame of these monitoring programs are now more than 30 years long, whereas sea level time series date to the beginning of the 1940s. This information has been complemented with international databases and has been analyzed in numerous works by the Grupo mediterráneo de Cambio Climático (GCC; Mediterranean Climate Chang...

The climate change context has raised new problems in the computation of temperature return levels (RLs) in using the statistical extreme value theory. This arises since it is not yet possible to accept the hypothesis that the series of maxima or of high level values are stationary, without at least verifying the assumption. Thus, in this paper, different approaches are tested and compared to derive high order RLs in the nonstationary context. These RLs are computed by extrapolating identified trends, and a bootstrap method is used to estimate confidence intervals. The identification of trends can be made either in the parameters of the extreme value distributions or in the mean and variance of the whole series. Then, a methodology is proposed to test if the trends in extremes can be explained by the trends in mean and variance of the whole dataset. If this is the case, the future extremes can be derived from the stationary extremes of the centered and normalized variable and the ch...

Quantifying how Canada’s water yield has changed over time is an important component of the water accounts maintained by Statistics Canada. This study evaluates the movement in the series of annual water yield estimates for Southern Canada from 1971 to 2004. We estimated the movement in the series using a trend-cycle approach and found that water yield for Southern Canada has generally decreased over the period of observation.

Global climate change has affected avian migration patterns and nesting phenology. Changes in one phase of a bird's cycle will most likely affect other stages, but few studies focus simultaneously on multiple life-history events. We used western North American ringing records and Christmas Bird Counts to examine whether changes in migration patterns were concordant with advancing American kestrel (Falco sparverius) nesting phenology. Consistent with previous findings, male kestrels migrated shorter distances than female kestrels, and kestrels nesting in southern latitudes migrated shorter distances than kestrels nesting in more northern areas. In addition, kestrel migration distance decreased significantly from 1960-2009 and was negatively associated with winter minimum temperatures. Christmas Birds Counts from the same time period showed increasing indices of overwintering kestrel abundance in northern states (Washington, Idaho, and Utah), where winter minimum temperatures have increased significantly, and concomitant decreases in southern states (California and Arizona). Finally, changes in nesting phenology of kestrels in southwestern Idaho were best explained by warmer winters, not springs. Warmer winters may decrease energetic demands on migrants by allowing for shorter migration distances, decreasing thermoregulatory costs, or both. Decreased energy demands during winter may allow birds to gain resources necessary for reproduction earlier in the nesting season. Higher winter temperatures that decrease (former) constraints on early nesting may be a particularly important mechanism leading to advancing nesting phenology for species with strong seasonal declines in fecundity or intense early season competition for high-quality nesting areas.

We investigated the influence of military training on the abundance and behavior of raptors at a military training area in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in Idaho during the breeding seasons of 1991-1994. Raptor counts on military training ranges did not differ when we compared all training days to all non-training days. However, during one period of intensive military training in one breeding season, raptor counts were lower during training than on non-training days. During training, Northern Harriers (Circus cyaneus) did not alter their behavior on training days. In years when prey numbers were low, falcons, hawks, and eagles perched and flew at low levels less often and flew at higher altitudes more often during training than they did when training did not occur. We observed fewer prey capture attempts on ranges on days with training than on days without training. Specific types of military training activity affected counts of raptors on ranges. The lowest raptor counts were associated with firing of artillery, small arms, and main turret guns or machine guns on tanks. Raptor counts associated with tank preparation (i.e., assembling and loading ammunition), driving, laser training, and convoy traffic were similar to non-training periods.

The paper analyzes the recent trends in the occurrence of frost days in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trends during the 1961-2015 periods were determined based on data from fourteen meteorological stations. MAKESENS procedure, which uses the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen?s method, was applied on time series of annual number of frost days to assess trends magnitude and its statistical significance. Given the results, negative and largely significant trends are present all over Bosnia and Herzegovina territory. The estimated decreasing trend was in the range of 2.1-6.4 days per decade. The percentile analysis of the annual number of frost days in Bosnia and Herzegovina suggests that a decreasing trend has become more pronounced since 1990s and particularly since the beginning of the 21st century. The observed downward trends were primarily a consequence of high negative trends in the coldest winter months - in January and December. The most prominent decrease in ...

We give a general condition for disturbance covariance matrices in the general linear regression model which ensures that, in the limit, ordinary least squares is as efficient as generalized least squares as the disturbance covariance matrix approaches the edges of the parameter space. This condition includes many known efficiency results as special cases.

Resumen.-Reproducción y estado del Elanio Pico Ganchudo (Chondrohierax uncinatus mirus).-Del 2000 al 2006, estudiamos al Elanio Pico Ganchudo (Chondrohierax uncinatus mirus), una subespecie endémica y en peligro de la isla Grenada. Los elanios establecieron territorios y anidaron de Mayo a Noviembre, tiempo que coincide con el inicio de la estación lluviosa. Los elanios construyeron nidos de palitos en la copa o al final de ramas estrechamente bifurcadas en los árboles maduros y de edad avanzada. Los nidos fueron construidos a una altura promedio de 23,4 m sobre el suelo. Los elanios pusieron huevos de Junio a Septiembre. Los huevos eclosionaron de Julio a Octubre, y los jóvenes salieron del nido de Agosto a Noviembre. Documentamos 32 intentos de reproducción de Mayo a Noviembre 2000-2006, y 18 jóvenes salieron de 16 nidos exitosos con un total de 0,6 jóvenes volantones por intento de reproducción de cada pareja, y el éxito reproductivo total fue del 50%. Basado en el número de parejas con territorio, adultos no reproductores e inmaduros, estimamos el tamaño de la población del elanio de Grenada entre 50 y 75 aves. No observamos elanios durante una búsqueda realizada en Abril de 2006 en la pequeña isla de Carriacou, ubicada a 32 km al norte de Grenada.

Swainson&#39;s Hawks (Buteo swainsoni; Aguilucho Langostero) were captured and banded in La Pampa, Argentina from 28 November 1996 through 25 January 1997. We collected morphometric measurements to determine if hawks gained weight on the austral (non-...

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Quantifying how Canada’s water yield has changed over time is an important component of the water accounts maintained by Statistics Canada. This study evaluates the movement in the series of annual water yield estimates for Southern Canada from 1971 to 2004. We estimated the movement in the series using a trend-cycle approach and found that water yield for Southern Canada has generally decreased over the period of observation.

An NBER working paper by Donohue, Aneja, and Weber (DAW) estimates the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) laws and finds using data from 1979–2014 that RTC laws lead to significant increases in violent crime whether one adopts a traditional panel data approach or a new synthetic control analysis. Carlisle Moody and Thomas Marvell (MM) respond by mimicking those two approaches, but serious coding errors mar every estimate they offer in their paper. Moreover, their suggestions for changing the methodologies employed by DAW are both conceptually and econometrically flawed. Despite these flaws, the actual MM synthetic control estimates for each adopting state, which they fail to present in either state-by-state or aggregated form, suggest that RTC laws in aggregate have generated a 16 percent increase in violent crime over the decade following adoption, which is roughly the same as the 13–15 percent increase predicted by DAW.

Quantifying how Canada’s water yield has changed over time is an important component of the water accounts maintained by Statistics Canada. This study evaluates the movement in the series of annual water yield estimates for Southern Canada from 1971 to 2004. We estimated the movement in the series using a trend-cycle approach and found that water yield for Southern Canada has generally decreased over the period of observation.

New World vultures are typically diurnal with only rare nocturnal activity reported. Tabor and McAllister (1988) observed nocturnal flight by Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) during migration, and Mandel and Bildstein (2007) observed small groups of Turkey Vultures regularly feeding until 23:00 H at a landfill site in Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We found no published reports of nocturnal activity for the six other species of New World vultures. Here we report an observation of nocturnal feeding by a group of Black Vultures (Coragyps atratus) in a limestone quarry in the Southern Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Our observation occurred during an ongoing investigation of foraging behavior in Black Vultures, Turkey Vultures, and King Vultures (Sarcoramphus papa). Between 9 September 2009 and 3 January 2010, we placed camera traps at 30 different sites baited with carcasses including both open (pastures, limestone quarries, and deforested areas) and closed (forested) habitats, within 50 km of Xpujil, Campeche, Mexico. Carcasses were collected as road kill or obtained at El Centro de Control de Chetumal (Chetumal, Quintana Roo). Each site was equipped with a Moultrie video camera (Moultrie Feeders inc., Alabaster, Alabama, U.S.A.) with digital video recording capability. At each site, the camera was placed 5 m from the carcass and left for 3-6 d (weather dependent). The camera was triggered by movement; once triggered, the camera would take one still photo, then videorecord for 30 sec during daylight or 5 sec in darkness, with a 1-min interval between successive still/video recordings. One camera trap was set at a quarry site 80 m from a road 20 km north of Xpujil (18u43.1699N, 89u23.9839W), baited with a dog carcass, and left for 3 d, after which time the camera was removed and the still photos and video recordings downloaded onto a portable computer. The phase of the moon, precipitation, and cloud cover were also recorded during the study as these variables may influence scavengers' activity patterns (Watakuni 1986). The phase of the moon was recorded by the camera; precipitation and cloud cover were acquired from the Zoh Laguna weather station (CONAGUA, Mexican National Water Commission). The camera recorded a group of vultures feeding continuously on the carcass from 11:15 H on 31 December until 14:40 H on 1 January 2010. A maximum of 10 Black Vultures, six Turkey Vultures, and two King Vultures fed at the carcass during the 27.25 hr of recording. One group, composed exclusively of Black Vultures, fed at the carcass

New World vultures are typically diurnal with only rare nocturnal activity reported. Tabor and McAllister (1988) observed nocturnal flight by Turkey Vultures (Cathartes aura) during migration, and Mandel and Bildstein (2007) observed small groups of Turkey Vultures regularly feeding until 23:00 H at a landfill site in Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We found no published reports of nocturnal activity for the six other species of New World vultures. Here we report an observation of nocturnal feeding by a group of Black Vultures (Coragyps atratus) in a limestone quarry in the Southern Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Our observation occurred during an ongoing investigation of foraging behavior in Black Vultures, Turkey Vultures, and King Vultures (Sarcoramphus papa). Between 9 September 2009 and 3 January 2010, we placed camera traps at 30 different sites baited with carcasses including both open (pastures, limestone quarries, and deforested areas) and closed (forested) habitats, within 50 km of Xpujil, Campeche, Mexico. Carcasses were collected as road kill or obtained at El Centro de Control de Chetumal (Chetumal, Quintana Roo). Each site was equipped with a Moultrie video camera (Moultrie Feeders inc., Alabaster, Alabama, U.S.A.) with digital video recording capability. At each site, the camera was placed 5 m from the carcass and left for 3-6 d (weather dependent). The camera was triggered by movement; once triggered, the camera would take one still photo, then videorecord for 30 sec during daylight or 5 sec in darkness, with a 1-min interval between successive still/video recordings. One camera trap was set at a quarry site 80 m from a road 20 km north of Xpujil (18u43.1699N, 89u23.9839W), baited with a dog carcass, and left for 3 d, after which time the camera was removed and the still photos and video recordings downloaded onto a portable computer. The phase of the moon, precipitation, and cloud cover were also recorded during the study as these variables may influence scavengers' activity patterns (Watakuni 1986). The phase of the moon was recorded by the camera; precipitation and cloud cover were acquired from the Zoh Laguna weather station (CONAGUA, Mexican National Water Commission). The camera recorded a group of vultures feeding continuously on the carcass from 11:15 H on 31 December until 14:40 H on 1 January 2010. A maximum of 10 Black Vultures, six Turkey Vultures, and two King Vultures fed at the carcass during the 27.25 hr of recording. One group, composed exclusively of Black Vultures, fed at the carcass