Quantitative Methods (Political Science)

FullText:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17047500
This research draws on the perspective of physical dynamics to construct a "Rheological Model of Political Systems" for analyzing Political System change. First, the fundamental analytical object is defined as the "Political Object (S(x))" and is endowed with a core attribute termed "Presence". Based on this, a basic assumption is proposed: The rheological history of Political Systems is the antagonistic history of the political object's own Presence being oppressed and counter-oppressed. This sum total of being oppressed and counter-oppressed determines the political object's "Presential Quality(Cxi)". Then, drawing on the perspective of physical dynamics, an "Antagonistic Potential Energy (Vxn)" is defined for the political object, the magnitude of which is related to the presential quality and the "Lower Expectation Bound of Presential Quality(Hxn)." Then, a "Political Internal Energy(𝑈𝑆(𝑥))" is defined to measure the average Antagonistic Potential Energy level of all political objects, there exists a corresponding 'Political Potential Well (U0)", the size of which is related to the Political System and regime. The specific content of the oppression and counter-oppression of Presence is various forms of "Antagonistic Activities". When the Political Internal Energy is less than the Political Potential Well, these activities are "Constrained Antagonism"; while otherwise, they are "Spillover Antagonism".The Presential Quality of a political object oscillates due to these Antagonistic Activities, which in turn causes fluctuations in its Antagonistic Potential Energy. If these fluctuations are not widespread and severe, then overall, the Antagonistic Potential Energy remains confined within the Political Potential Well, and the vast majority of the antagonism are Constrained Antagonism. However, when a widespread and persistent deterioration of Presential Quality occurs, it triggers an escape of the overall Political Internal Energy from the Political Potential Well, and Constrained Antagonism will transform into Spillover Antagonism.Regardless of its nature, all antagonism invariably alters the current Political System to some degree, thereby inducing rheological changes in it. Accordingly, a "Rheological Factor of the Political System (Ω)" is defined to measure the theoretical extent of institutional change that Antagonistic Activities can potentially cause.Regarding the direction of this change, the model posits that it is correlated with the "Political Expectations" of the "Leading Collective" that ultimately prevails in the Antagonistic Activities. However, which specific Leading Collective emerges victorious is probabilistic. Thus, the model establishes a formula to compute the probability (𝑃𝑆(𝑥)*)of a Leading Collective's success.In summary, this model is characterized by the following features: 1. value-neutral antagonism; 2. non-teleological historicity; 3. a probabilistic mechanism for progress (in terms of liberating productive forces).Its applicability spans the vast majority of human civilizations across the overwhelming bulk of history—from tribal societies to the modern era—and extends into the future age of artificial intelligence(AI). The granularity of its analysis is determined by the defined criteria for partitioning political objects, which can be either individual or collective.Additionally, this model may provide a feasible operational framework for games that simulate the operation of human society.It is important to note that, should artificial intelligence participate in societal governance in the future, this model has the potential to be adapted into an AI decision-making model. However, the associated risks must be carefully evaluated.

In 2023, Argentina experienced an electoral scenario marked by the tension between continuity and alternation of political forces in a context of multi-level elections. The socioeconomic and inflationary crisis generated uncertainty about the viability of the incumbent party's continued power at the national level. This situation, in the context of political territorialization, led governors to adopt differentiated electoral strategies to maintain their continuity in their respective provinces. Among the tactics implemented by them are simultaneous double voting or the modification of the electoral calendar to desynchronize the provincial elections from the presidential contest, maximizing their chances of success. This study aims to explain the factors that would have influenced the chances of success or failure of the provincial incumbents in the gubernatorial race. To this end, a subnational comparative approach was adopted using logistic regression models and to account for the existence or absence of regionalized patterns of such dynamics. In this regard, the provincial and regional scenarios in which patterns of political continuity or alternation were recorded in the competition for governorship were identified, highlighting how subnational electoral decisions interacted with the national context and affected both institutional stability and the reconfiguration of political power in the provinces.

People are commonly expected not to waste their vote on parties with small probabilities of being elected. Yet, many end up voting for underdogs. We argue that voters gauge the popular support for their preferred party from their social networks. When social networks function as echo chambers, a feature observed in real-life networks, voters overestimate underdogs’ chances of winning. We conduct voting experiments in which some treatment groups receive signals from a simulated network. We compare the effect of networks with a high degree of homogeneity against random networks. We find that homophilic networks increase the level of support for underdogs, which provides evidence to back up anecdotal claims that echo chambers foster the development of fringe parties.

Turkey made its first significant efforts to democratize civil-military relations in line with Western standards in the early 2000s, as part of the European Union harmonization reforms. Although legal and institutional arrangements for the democratic control of the military have progressed compared to the past, the country has still experienced military memoranda and coup attempts, indicating that civil-military relations have not been fully secured over the last two decades. This study examines the causes of this issue through a survey conducted with 160 retired officers from the Turkish Armed Forces. The findings suggest that the failure to achieve comprehensive democratization stems from neglecting the normative aspects of the transformation process and not viewing the armed forces as a social institution and.

There is a continuing debate over the political importance and durability of partisan attachments in European multi-party systems. Drawing on a nationally representative five-wave panel, we provide a longitudinal test of the power of partisanship in Italy over the course of the tumultuous 2013 national elections. We find that a strong partisan affiliation measured as a social identity two years prior to the election promoted system stability by increasing support for the in-party and inhibiting electoral support for the insurgent Five Star Movement (M5S). In contrast, non-partisans, especially highly educated ones, were more likely than partisans to vote for M5S. Our results illustrate the role of partisanship in stabilizing multi-party systems amid crisis.

We present a model and a laboratory experiment on the informativeness of debate, varying both informational and institutional variables. The informational variable we focus on is a novel factor affecting the extent to which audience members can learn from exposure to unpersuasive arguments. The more easily a listener can learn from an argument she finds unpersuasive, the greater the risk that the speaker will alienate this listener when she fails to persuade her. We find a strong interaction between speakers’ responsiveness to that risk and the institutions of debate. When listeners can learn from unpersuasive arguments, many speakers are discouraged from attempting persuasion, irrespective of the debate rules we consider. In contrast, when listeners cannot learn from unpersuasive arguments, debate rules affect speakers’ willingness to engage in persuasion.

Test de creativitate ? (in colaborare) Test de originalitate ? (in colaborare) Povestea 1 2 capre s-au intalnit pe podet… Continuati povestea. Povestea 2 2 portocale stau de vorba despre ora de chimie. Creati un posibil scenariu al discutiei dintre ele. Daca doriti schimbati materia orei. Povestea 3 Ziua mondiala a sanatatii mentale (10 octombrie). Alegeti un mesaj, o imagine sugestiva s.a.m.d. prin care sa ajutati un om cu astfel de probleme (desen, ppt, sau orice alta forma electronica disponibila). Povestea 4 CDI= centrul de documentare si informare, centrul documentelor inedite, centrul de descoperiri inedite, centrul de dimensiuni inedite, inimaginabile. Propuneti un alt titlu, propuneti un spatiu al acestuia (offline si/sau online). Fiecare zi este o noua provocare. Fiecare zi este speciala (zi speciala despre oameni, locuri, evenimente care au schimbat sau marcat istoria universala). Va propun ca in fiecare zi sa descoperim impreuna timp de un semestru daca suntem creativiti, si, daca da, cum putem sa realizam un spatiu, un colt chiar si al "cailor verzi pe pereti", spatiul CDI. Stiati ca… Scriitorul francez, Jules Verne a negat pe tot parcursul vieții sale că ar fi un clarvăzător. El susținea că ceea ce își poate imagina un om la un moment dat, un altul peste zeci sau sute de ani va pune în practică. Așa ar funcționea această lume din care facem noi parte, susținea Verne.

List experiments are a widely used survey technique for estimating the prevalence of socially sensitive attitudes or behaviors. Their design, however, makes them vulnerable to bias: because treatment group respondents see a greater number of items (J + 1) than control group respondents (J), the treatment group mean may be mechanically inflated due simply to the greater number of items. The few previous studies that directly examine this do not arrive at definitive conclusions. We find clear evidence of inflation in an original dataset, though only among respondents with low educational attainment. Furthermore, we use available data from previous studies and find similar heterogeneous patterns. The evidence of heterogeneous effects has implications for the interpretation of previous research using list experiments, especially in developing world contexts. We recommend a simple solution: using a necessarily false placebo statement for the control group equalizes list lengths, thereby ...

Este artigo debate ilegalismos populares, atuação estatal e conflito violento nas margens urbanas. O trabalho se embasa em entrevistas em profundidade realizadas com moradores de uma área empobrecida da Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires (Argentina) em contexto de pandemia, e toma a crise sanitária como uma situação extrema com grande potencial de revelar dinâmicas que, ainda que por ela afetadas, a transcendem em grande medida. O artigo discute a percepção, surgida com força nos discursos dos interlocutores, de que o cenário pandêmico desencadeou três problemas centrais no que diz respeito às violências que afetam o bairro em questão: 1) aumento dos roubos e furtos a moradores; 2) incremento do uso abusivo de drogas; e 3) expansão do comércio local de drogas. A análise se desenvolve à medida em que revela que há um outro ator que desempenha um papel central nestas dinâmicas: o Estado. O texto mostra o funcionamento de um ciclo de retroalimentação em que o encarceramento de autores de crimes não violentos acaba por fomentar o mercado de drogas local e por incentivar o enfrentamento armado entre grupos inseridos nesse mercado.

This paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the e¤ects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection e¤ects, using data on U.S. governors for 1982-2012. We …nd that the possibility of reelection provides a signi…cant incentive for incumbents to exert e¤ort. We also …nd a selection e¤ect, although it is weaker in terms of its e¤ect on average governor performance. According to our model, the widely-used two-term regime improves voter welfare by 4:2% compared to a one-term regime, and …nd that a three-term regime may improve voter welfare even further.

Despite the substantial body of research on compulsory voting's (CV) relationship with turnout, much remains unknown about the role of different types of CV rules, their enforcement, and their ability to prevent the secular turnout decline observed around the world. Moreover, existing studies that leverage changes to CV laws are limited to a single country. We assemble rich new data on voter turnout and electoral legislation that, we believe, include the most accurate and extensive cross-national measure of CV to date. We test three theoretically derived hypotheses: that CV enforcement matters for participation; that enforcement's effect is conditioned by state capacity; and that, only when CV is enforced, will it mitigate voter turnout's post-1970 tendency to decline. We find support for each. We also find that the nature of sanctions for non-voting is irrelevant for participation.

Saya kira keliru, cara membandingkan uji forensik dengan survei opini karena yang diuji BEDA. Uji forensik memeriksa benda fisik IJAZAH, ada kertasnya, ada tintanya,ada tulisannya, ada fotonya. Survei memeriksa OPINI orang tentang sesuatu yang TIDAK HARUS ADA barang fisiknya. Survei bisa memeriksa opini tentang tuyul, kuntilanak, genderuwo, dll. SAYA: Begini ya pesan wa saya adalah membandingkan paradigma positivisme vs paradigma opiniisme pakai metode survei atau polling dari sudut ontologi dan epistemologi.

In coalition governments, parties need to agree on a common policy position. Whose preferences prevail? The proportionality hypothesis, the idea that coalition partners’ influence on policy is proportional to their share of seats, has been used widely in the literature on democratic representation, ideological congruence, and coalition politics. In my analysis of competing theories aimed at determining what influences policy compromise in multiparty governments, I reject the proportionality hypothesis. My results suggest instead that coalition partners exert equal influence on policy compromises, independent of their number of seats. More extensive analysis also provides evidence for increased party influence on policies when the party is the formateur or closer to the parliamentary median, ceteris paribus. As a by-product of my analysis, I provide a simple and better proxy for measuring a government's position when this position is not directly observable.

sta pesquisa tem como objetivo verificar a interferência de variáveis criminais não letais no quantitativo de mortalidade por homicídios no Brasil. Foi proposto um estudo descritivo, usando como base documental os Anuários Brasileiros de Segurança Pública, de 2014 e 2017-proporcionando um corte transversal entre 2011 e 2016. Foi realizada uma regressão múltipla no software Stata, que teve como resultado a forte correlação dos crimes não letais com o número de mortes criminais no Brasil. O resultado permitiu apontar a necessidade de uma discussão mais ampla acerca das políticas públicas de segurança, apontando uma forte e sistêmica relação entre as diversas formas de atuação criminosa nos resultados dos homicídios. Isso permite montar estratégias individualizadas para tentar minimizar as ações delituosas.

Expanding on "The Eternal March: A Syncretic Odyssey of Power and War", this article presents the Cultural Militarism Index (CMI), a new framework that addresses a key gap in conflict studies. While traditional indices focus on material factors like troop numbers or arms spending, we show how societies with similar military resources can follow starkly different paths toward conflict. The CMI measures militarism's cultural roots, capturing the rituals, symbols, and narratives that make violence seem natural through education, media, and shared memory. The CMI model defines ten dimensions-from charismatic leadership to manufactured fear-and tests them against 27 historical cases, achieving strong predictive accuracy (R²=0.94). The findings highlight that cultural militarism often forecasts violence more effectively than material factors alone, accounting for 73% of major conflicts where both align. Cases like Imperial Japan (CMI 147.2), Rwanda (104.2), and Ukraine (94.1) reveal how cultural tipping points (CMI>85 with a yearly rise of >5%) can signal impending conflict 12-18 months earlier than standard models. This study offers policymakers practical tools, such as revising school curricula, monitoring propaganda, and reducing militaristic symbols, to break the cultural cycles that fuel war. By tracing how societies turn identity into a weapon, we provide not just a way to diagnose militarism but a roadmap for rooting it out at its core.

In the second section we discuss in general terms how the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project differs from extant indices and how the novel approach taken by V-Dem might assist the work of activists, professionals, and scholars. Appendix A addresses the possible uses of V-Dem for program evaluation, Appendix B offers a glossary of key terms used in this document, and Appendix C clarifies search terms used for several analyses in Table . Many attempts have been made to measure democracy. It is somewhat complicated to identify these indices because they do not always refer explicitly to democracy. Nonetheless, we include an index in our survey if it is commonly viewed as representing democracy or some aspect of democracy, and if it features fairly broad country coverage. This includes the BNR index developed by Bernhard, Nordstrom & Reenock (2001); the Bertelsmann Transformation Index ("BTI") directed by the Bertelsmann Stiftung (various years); the Democracy Barometer developed by Wolfgang Merkel & associates (Bühlmann, Merkel, Müller & Weßels 2012); the BMR index developed by Boix, Miller & Rosato (2013), the Contestation and Inclusiveness indices developed by Coppedge, Alvarez, & Maldonado (2008); the Political Rights, Civil Liberty, Nations in Transit, and Countries at the Crossroads indices, all sponsored by Freedom House (freedomhouse.org); the Economist Intelligence Unit (2010) index ("EIU"); the Unified Democracy Scores ("UDS") developed by Pemstein, Meserve & Melton (2010); the Polity2 index from the Polity IV database (Marshall, Gurr & Jaggers 2014); the democracy-dictatorship ("DD") index developed by Adam Przeworski & colleagues (Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi & Przeworski 1996; Cheibub, Gandhi & Vreeland 2010); the Lexical index of electoral democracy developed by Skaaning, Gerring & Bartusevičius (2015); the Competition and Participation indices developed by Tatu Vanhanen (2000); and the Voice and Accountability index developed as part of the Worldwide Governance Indicators ("WGI") (Kaufmann, Kraay & Mastruzzi 2010). 2 In order to make comparisons in a systematic fashion we summarize key features of 2 Other indices, not included in Table , may be briefly listed: the Political Regime Change [PRC] dataset

This chapter examines recent processes of political territorialization in Argentina through the lens of electoral geography. Drawing on a multiscalar perspective, it argues that the Argentine political system has undergone increasing territorial differentiation in voting behavior, shaped by the interplay of institutions, party actors, and regional cleavages.
The paper offers a conceptual and methodological overview of electoral geography approaches, emphasizing how electoral behavior analysis reveals patterns of competition, territorial segmentation, and party system restructuring. It highlights how, in recent decades, the fragmentation of political representation has been accompanied by differentiated territorial configurations, particularly at subnational levels such as provinces and departments.
Rejecting homogenizing interpretations, the chapter proposes that voting is territorially embedded and meaningfully situated, allowing scholars to identify zones of political hegemony, contestation, or resistance. Electoral geography thus emerges as a critical tool to interpret power dynamics, representation, and governance in federal contexts such as Argentina.

Este capítulo examina los procesos contemporáneos de territorialización de la política en Argentina a partir de los aportes de la geografía electoral. Con base en una mirada multiescalar, se argumenta que el sistema político argentino ha experimentado una creciente diferenciación territorial en la expresión del voto, como producto de la interacción entre instituciones, actores partidarios y clivajes regionales.
El trabajo realiza un recorrido conceptual y metodológico sobre los enfoques de la geografía electoral, focalizándose en cómo el análisis del comportamiento electoral permite detectar patrones de competencia, segmentación territorial y reorganización partidaria. Se destaca que, en las últimas décadas, la fragmentación de la representación política ha estado acompañada de una estructuración territorial diferenciada, especialmente visible en niveles subnacionales como provincias y departamentos.
Lejos de interpretaciones homogéneas, se plantea que el voto adquiere sentido territorialmente situado, permitiendo identificar áreas de hegemonía, competencia o resistencia política. De este modo, la geografía electoral se propone como una herramienta clave para interpretar las dinámicas de poder, representación y gobernanza en contextos federales como el argentino.

Africa’s arbitrary country borders have been seized upon as sources of “natural experiments”: having randomly assigned people to different country treatments, differences in outcomes on either side of the border can then be attributed to the institutions, demographics, or policies put in place in each country. While methodologically attractive, the use of African borders as sources of natural experiments presents several potential pitfalls. We describe these pitfalls—some common to all studies that employ jurisdictional boundaries, some unique to African borders—and offer guidelines for overcoming them. We conclude that African cross-border studies can provide research advantages similar to well-executed comparative case studies, but that they frequently offer weaker inferential leverage than is claimed.

Unsupervised learning of disease subtypes from multi-omics data presents a significant opportunity for advancing personalized medicine. We introduce OmicsCL, a modular contrastive learning framework that jointly embeds heterogeneous omics modalities—such as gene expression, DNA methylation, and miRNA expression—into a unified latent space. Our method incorporates a survival-aware contrastive loss that encourages the model to learn representations aligned with survival-related patterns, without relying on labeled outcomes. Evaluated on the TCGA BRCA dataset, OmicsCL uncovers clinically meaningful clusters and achieves strong unsupervised concordance with patient survival. The framework demonstrates robustness across hyperparameter configurations and can be tuned to prioritize either subtype coherence or survival stratification. Ablation studies confirm that integrating survival-aware loss significantly enhances the predictive power of learned embeddings. These results highlight the promise of contrastive objectives for biological insight discovery in high-dimensional, heterogeneous omics data.

Resumen: Entre 1999 y 2007, el análisis de la brecha de género del voto en Argentina revela dinámicas complejas y regionalizadas. Si bien en el nivel nacional las diferencias de voto entre mujeres y hombres no son cuantitativamente significativas, emergen patrones específicos vinculados a contextos geográficos particulares. Las mujeres muestran una inclinación hacia fuerzas políticas moderadas con valores republicanos, como las representadas por la Alianza de De la Rúa en 1999 y las candidaturas de Elisa Carrió en 2003 y 2007, con un sesgo femenino notable en regiones como el área pampeana y la Región Metropolitana de Buenos Aires. Estos hallazgos evidencian la inexistencia de un patrón uniforme de la brecha de género y confirman la presencia de heterogeneidad espacial en algunas candidaturas. Esto sugiere que la brecha de género del voto responde a efectos contextuales de tipo geográfico, en parte vinculados al proceso de territorialización política. La incorporación de herramientas de análisis espacial local permite captar estas heterogeneidades y destaca la importancia de considerar los contextos subnacionales en los estudios del comportamiento electoral.

The legislative agenda in most parliamentary systems is controlled tightly by the government and bills offered by individual members of parliament have low rates of success. Yet, members of parliament (MPs) do seek to present (private) members’ bills even where the rate of adoption is very low. We argue that members’ bills serve as an electoral connection but also as an opportunity for MPs to signal competence to their co-partisans. To demonstrate the presence of an electoral connection we take advantage of the random selection of private members’ bills in the New Zealand House of Representatives and show that survey respondents approve more of electorate MPs whose bills were drawn on the ballot. In addition, we show that MPs respond to the incentives created by the voters and parties’ willingness to reward legislative effort and, consequently, that electorally vulnerable legislators are more likely to place members’ bills on the ballot.

We revisit the simultaneous equations model of rebellion, mobilization, grievances and repression proposed by . Our main contribution is to clarify and improve on the underlying identification strategy by resorting to the well-known colonization instruments recently constructed by Acemoglu, . We also emphasize the role played by the institutional environment. Instrumental variables estimates for post-colonial societies reveal that the strength of the state, as proxied empirically by an index of bureaucratic quality, exerts as t r o n gp r e v e n t i v ee ffect on rebellion. On the other hand, working institutions also influence the likelihood of rebellion indirectly, through mobilization. Our estimates suggest that this indirect effect increases rebellion. As such, the total net effect of better institutions on rebellion is ambiguous.

For decades, a focus on the gender gap in political attitudes has been a traditional way of understanding public opinion in the United States. However, as American political life becomes more polarized and partisans more divided, this frame fails to consider whether the increased importance of partisanship might work to disrupt expected patterns of gender difference. Examining an issue of significant prominence and salience in American political lifeguns and gun policywe move beyond a simple gender gap frame to examine gender gaps within each of the parties and the partisan differences among women and among men on these important issues. Drawing on data from the 2022 Cooperative Election Study, we consider whether gender and partisanship work together to shape attitudes toward guns and gun policies. We find that gender and party both work to shape attitudes on guns, but some respondents, Republican women and Democratic men, experience cross-pressures from their gender and party identities. This results in important complexity among gender and party groups, which we miss when we fail to account for the impact of multiple identities on the preferences of individuals.

Mexico has been a country of important discontinuities on multiple themes, among which security stands out; This constant, has, in my opinion, various guidelines, among the most important, the growing corruption of the authorities, which, puts in question, public opinion, the legality in terms of government functions-of the three orders-in the exercise of security; Similarly, the huge discontinuities in the exercise of economic policy, which, in addition to clearly dividing population groups, from admission, have subtracted value from the idea of integral development of the social complex and, without a doubt, daily in multiplicity of activities.

Mexico has been a country of important discontinuities on multiple themes, among which security stands out; This constant, has, in my opinion, various guidelines, among the most important, the growing corruption of the authorities, which, puts in question, public opinion, the legality in terms of government functions-of the three orders-in the exercise of security; Similarly, the huge discontinuities in the exercise of economic policy, which, in addition to clearly dividing population groups, from admission, have subtracted value from the idea of integral development of the social complex and, without a doubt, daily in multiplicity of activities.

Este estudo visa a explicação das taxas de homicídios intencionais no Estado do Espírito Santo, entre 1980 e 2022, em função dos determinantes estruturais (socioeconômicos e sociodemográficos) e das políticas de segurança pública e apoio social. Empregamos um método misto, que articula a análise histórica e documental de discursos com a construção de modelos quantitativos multivariados, buscando compreender a agenda e formulação das políticas de segurança pública e mensurar os múltiplos fatores da violência, inclusive os próprios programas governamentais. Constatamos que o governo estadual foi prolífico na elaboração de programas de segurança pública, demonstrando a persistente centralidade da área na agenda governamental, mas enfrentou dificuldades de governança e governabilidade na implementação, prejudicando a sua eficiência. A desigualdade de renda e o acesso a armas de fogo contribuíram para aumentar os homicídios intencionais, enquanto as despesas públicas em apoio social e segurança pública não tiveram impactos relevantes, apesar de variações significativas e modestas entre os efeitos dos programas estaduais de segurança pública.

Theories of lawmaking generate equilibrium predictions about the set of acceptable policy outcomes. Tests of theoretical predictions often use independently estimated ideal points based on roll call votes to estimate what appear to be theoretically relevant quantities. This paper demonstrates that such measures are invalid because of the endogeneity of the roll call record; predictions regarding equilibrium outcomes necessarily yield predictions about the agenda used to enact the outcomes. I demonstrate how divorcing the statistical ...

With the increasing nationalization of politics, federal politicians have interacted more and more with subnational actors. In particular, the president and governing party have provided selective policy and spending benefits to same-party jurisdictions in order to increase their influence in subnational politics. As a significant amount of federal grants is allocated directly to city governments, we analyze the effects of the federal-city relationship in the federal grant process. Specifically, we examine the effects of the president-mayor party alignment on the allocation of federal block and project grants to 568 medium and large cities from 2005 to 2020 using a two-way (city and year) fixed-effects model. We find that the president favors co-partisan mayors in the distribution of federal grants, specifically co-partisan mayors from (a) secure party cities, (b) cities in states where the governor is also a co-partisan, and (c) secure party cities in states where the governor is also a co-partisan. Digging deeper, we find this form of presidential particularism is almost exclusively a Democratic pursuit.

Pendekatan penelitian (research approach) merupakan prosedur atau rancangan peneletian. Langkah-langkah dalam prosedur penelitian ini meliputi: dari asumsi-asumsi luas hingga metode-metode terperinci dalam pengumpulan, analisis, dan interpretasi data. Rancangan tersebut melibatkan beberapa

The recent revival of protectionism has prompted further interests in the domestic employment effects of imports, in particular from China. Several studies have found negative employment effects of Chinese imports for the U.S. This column examines the association between Chinese imports and domestic employment effects in 17 sectors across 18 OECD countries with diverse labour market institutions. Results indicate that employment went down in sectors that are more exposed to imports from China, in particular for low-skilled workers.

Research on presidential distributive politics focuses almost exclusively on federal domestic spending. Yet, presidential influence on public policy extends well-beyond grant allocation. Since the early 20th Century, for example, the president has had substantial discretion to adjust tariff schedules and non-tariff barriers “with the stroke of a pen.” These trade adjustments via presidential directive allow us to test the logic of presidential particularism in an area of policy understudied among presidency scholars. We examine unilateral adjustments to US trade policies between 1917 and 2006, with a detailed analysis of those made between 1986 and 2006, and find that presidents—in accordance with electoral incentives—strategically allocate trade protections to industries in politically valuable states. In general, states in which the president lacks a comfortable electoral majority are systematically more likely to receive protectionist unilateral orders. Overall, our results show ...

Understanding Generation Z's political preferences is essential for candidates who engage this influential demographic in the 2025 Philippine Senate elections. Despite the growing importance of Gen Z in the electorate, limited research exists on the specific candidate attributes that shape their voting decisions. This study, conducted in Davao City, addresses this gap by examining how Gen Z perceives various candidate attributes through the lens of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and Rational Choice Theory (RCT). Using conjoint analysis with the PAPRIKA method, the study evaluated the relative importance of six key attributes: political experience, educational background, stance on issues, party affiliation, campaign style, and age group. Data from 1,380 respondents were analyzed to ensure a robust representation of Gen Z preferences. Results reveal that political experience (31.0%) and educational background (18.1%) are the most influential factors, followed by stance on issues (17.2%) and party affiliation (15.8%), with campaignstyle (10.8%) and age group (7.2%) being less significant. Gen Z voters in this study preferred candidates with substantial experience, advanced academic credentials, and a progressive stance on social and environmental issues, favoring digital over traditional campaign strategies. These findings have theoretical and practical implications, enriching the understanding of Gen Z's decision-making processes and highlighting their prioritization of competence, authenticity, and modern communication. Politicians can use these insights to develop targeted campaign strategies that resonate with Gen Z values, emphasizing progressive policies, qualifications, and digital engagement. By aligning campaign approaches with Gen Z's expectations, candidates have a strategic opportunity to connect meaningfully with this emerging voting bloc in the Philippine political landscape.

Las motivaciones turisticas que tradicionalmente se han formulado desde los organismos internacionales como la Organizacion Mundial del Turismo para explicar la eleccion de un destino por parte de los turistas resultan insuficientes para categorizar los nuevos flujos. En este sentido, las distintas fuentes estadisticas emanadas de los organismos oficiales de Espana vienen ampliandose en los ultimos anos en base a la variedad en las motivaciones que inducen a los turistas a elegir un destino en funcion de sus caracteristicas o singularidades empaquetadas en productos turisticos. De esta manera, encabezan las tipologias turisticas enmarcadas en torno a la cultura, el sol y la playa o el medioambiente las motivaciones que llevan a los turistas internacionales la eleccion de Espana como destino. A partir de las cifras registradas por los distintos organismos: Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, Ministerio de Educacion Cultura y Deportes, etc. se puede pormenorizar el analisis de los datos...

Our model describes competition between groups driven by the choices of self-interested voters within groups. Within a Poisson voting environment, parties observe aggregate support from groups and can allocate prizes or punishments to them. In a tournament style analysis, the model characterizes how contingent allocation of prizes based on relative levels of support affects equilibrium voting behavior. In addition to standard notions of pivotality, voters influence the distribution of prizes across groups. Such prize pivotality supports positive voter turnout even in non-competitive electoral settings. The analysis shows that competition for a prize awarded to the most supportive group is only stable when two groups actively support a party. However, competition among groups to avoid punishment is stable in environments with any number of groups. We conclude by examining implications for endogenous group formation and how politicians structure the allocation of rewards and punishments.

We present a new method to analyze party manifestos to benefit the placement of political partiesper seand to advance the study of elections. Our method improves on existing manual coding approaches by (1) generating semantically complete units based on syntax, (2) standardizing units into a subject–predicate–object structure, and (3) employing a fine-grained and flexible hierarchical coding scheme. We evaluate our approach by comparing estimates for the 2002, 2006, and 2008 Austrian national elections with those yielded by previous studies that employ the entire range of available measurement strategies. We also demonstrate how we link our new manifesto data with other kind of data produced in theAustrian National Election Study, especially mass and elite (party candidate) surveys.

The papers in this symposium use Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate the consequences of estimating time series models with variables that are of different orders of integration. In this summary, I do the following: very briefly outline what we learn from the papers; identify an apparent contradiction that might increase, rather than decrease, confusion around the concept of a balanced time series model; suggest a resolution; and identify a few areas of research that could further increase our understanding of how variables with different dynamics might be combined. In doing these things, I suggest there is still a lack of clarity around how a research practitioner demonstrates balance, and demonstrates what Pickup and Kellstedt (2021) call I(0) balance.

Liberalization is a perennial topic in politics and political science. We first review a broad scholarly debate, showing that the mainstream theories make rival and contradictory claims regarding the role of political parties in (de)liberalization reforms. We then develop a framework of conditional partisan influence, arguing that and under what conditions parties matter. We test our (and rival) propositions with a new dataset on (de)liberalization reforms in 23 democracies since 1973 covering several policy areas. Methodologically, we argue that existing quantitative studies are problematic: They rely on time-series cross-section models using country-year observations; but governments do not change annually, so that the number of observations is artificially inflated, resulting in incorrect estimates. We propose mixed-effects models instead, with country-year observations nested in cabinets, which are nested in countries and years. The results show under what conditions parties matter for (de)liberalization. More generally, the paper argues that mixed-effects models should become the new standard for studying partisan influences.

Tujuan manusia melakukan penelitian terhadap suatu fenomena adalah untuk mencari kebenaran ilmu pengetahuan. Cara memperoleh kebenaran adalah dengan menggunakan metodologi. Metodologi menjadi ciri khas dalam ilmu pengetahuan itu sendiri beserta kelebihan dan kekurangannya, termasuk juga pendekatan-pendekatan yang selama ini berkembang. Pendekatan dalam riset ilmu-ilmu sosial sampai saat ini juga masih menjadi perdebatan panjang di antara para ahli. Munculnya paradigma yang berbeda dapat dilihat dari cara pandang para ahli terhadap realitas sosial. Konsep realitas sosial itulah yang menjadi salah satu pemicu munculnya perdebatan panjang yang kemudian melahirkan tiga paradigma dalam metode penelitian ilmu-ilmu sosial, yang mana ketiga paradigma tersebut juga berbeda dalam cara melakukan observasi dan mengukurnya (Neuman, 2006: 70)

Busca-se fornecer as bases metodológicas da pesquisa empírica em Ciência Política, com foco no desenho de pesquisa. Dadas as limitações inerentes à uma disciplina, além do conteúdo não abarcar metodologias de pesquisa em teoria política, se restringe a algumas das diversas abordagens empíricas, mas cobre os fundamentos dos principais métodos e elementos de pesquisa da Ciência Política dos quais outras estratégias empíricas partem e avançam, ou criticam e rejeitam. Os tópicos abarcados são: causalidade; formulação de conceitos e mensuração de variáveis; seleção de casos; fundamentação, variantes e críticas a metodologias quantitativas, qualitativas e mistas. A motivação inicial da disciplina inclui balanços e diagnósticos do status da metodologia na Ciência Política no Brasil em geral, e na UFRGS em particular. As leituras contemplam exemplos de aplicação dos métodos discutidos. OBJETIVOS: A disciplina tem a intenção de permitir ao corpo discente tanto a escolha e manejo qualificados das estratégias de pesquisa empírica para seus próprios projetos, quanto fornecer bases comuns de linguagem científica para o diálogo no mundo acadêmico da Ciência Política. AVALIAÇÃO: Consistirá de apresentação de seminário, com peso de 20% na nota total, e um trabalho final, com peso de 80% na nota final. As apresentações serão definidas nas primeiras aulas. O trabalho consiste em uma reflexão sobre o projeto de pesquisa a partir do conteúdo visto na disciplina. Maiores detalhes serão passados no decorrer do curso. A data da entrega do trabalho ainda será definida. Cada avaliação receberá nota de 0 a 10. As notas serão transformadas em conceitos na seguinte escala: A:

Tujuan manusia melakukan penelitian terhadap suatu fenomena adalah untuk mencari kebenaran ilmu pengetahuan. Cara memperoleh kebenaran adalah dengan menggunakan metodologi. Metodologi menjadi ciri khas dalam ilmu pengetahuan itu sendiri beserta kelebihan dan kekurangannya, termasuk juga pendekatan-pendekatan yang selama ini berkembang. Pendekatan dalam riset ilmu-ilmu sosial sampai saat ini juga masih menjadi perdebatan panjang di antara para ahli. Munculnya paradigma yang berbeda dapat dilihat dari cara pandang para ahli terhadap realitas sosial. Konsep realitas sosial itulah yang menjadi salah satu pemicu munculnya perdebatan panjang yang kemudian melahirkan tiga paradigma dalam metode penelitian ilmu-ilmu sosial, yang mana ketiga paradigma tersebut juga berbeda dalam cara melakukan observasi dan mengukurnya (Neuman, 2006: 70)

O presente artigo tratou da definição Halpern-Pearl de causalidade real, em suas versões preliminar e estendida, enquadrando-a na discussão jurídica sobre causalidade. O objetivo central do trabalho foi responder à pergunta: quais as diferenças e as similitudes entre a definição Halpern-Pearl de causalidade real e as principais teorias de causalidade no civil law e no common law? Adotou-se como metodologia o método dedutivo, o procedimento comparativo e a técnica de pesquisa bibliográfica. Concluiu-se que: o teste but-for, o critério NESS e a definição HP preliminar são teorias de causalidade material que diferem quanto à abordagem filosófica e aos critérios de necessidade e suficiência; a teoria da equivalência, a teoria da causalidade direta imediata, a teoria da causalidade adequada e a definição HP estendida são teorias de causalidade jurídica que diferem quanto ao teste de causa material adotado, ao critério limitativo utilizado, ao momento de interrupção do nexo causal e ao nível de abstração da análise.

A disciplina apresenta maneiras de organizar a pesquisa empírica e o raciocínio científico. Situa as/os estudantes na linguagem da ciência (teoria, modelo, hipótese, variáveis etc.), tratando também da operacionalização de variáveis. A segunda parte do curso é dedicada à apreensão de alguns tópicos fundamentais da lógica e da prática da pesquisa científica a partir de alguns procedimentos: criação de índices, mensuração de conceitos, análise de conglomerados e construção de tipologias, sempre tendo como foco a explicação de processos políticos concretos.

This paper discusses the ontological, epistemological, and human nature premises underlying quantitative research. From an ontological realist perspective, the social world is viewed as a real, tangible structure external to individual cognition. Epistemologically, quantitative research adopts a positivist stance that there is a knowable reality independent of the research process. Regarding human nature, the determinist perspective holds that behavior is shaped by environmental factors. However, the paper argues that each of these premises has limitations - realist ontology lacks evidential reasoning, positivist epistemology fails to acknowledge the fragmented social world, and determinist human nature cannot fully predict behavior based solely on environment. The paper concludes that these premises are best considered complementarily, attending to the weaknesses within each frame, to provide a more nuanced understanding of the foundations of quantitative research.