Kilian Seng

Replication Data for: The Politics of (De)Liberalization: Studying Partisan Effects Using Mixed-Effects Models

Harvard Dataverse, 2023

The politics of (de)liberalization: studying partisan effects using mixed-effects models

Political Science Research and Methods, Aug 30, 2023

Liberalization is a perennial topic in politics and political science. We first review a broad sc... more Liberalization is a perennial topic in politics and political science. We first review a broad scholarly debate, showing that the mainstream theories make rival and contradictory claims regarding the role of political parties in (de)liberalization reforms. We then develop a framework of conditional partisan influence, arguing that and under what conditions parties matter. We test our (and rival) propositions with a new dataset on (de)liberalization reforms in 23 democracies since 1973 covering several policy areas. Methodologically, we argue that existing quantitative studies are problematic: They rely on time-series cross-section models using country-year observations; but governments do not change annually, so that the number of observations is artificially inflated, resulting in incorrect estimates. We propose mixed-effects models instead, with country-year observations nested in cabinets, which are nested in countries and years. The results show under what conditions parties matter for (de)liberalization. More generally, the paper argues that mixed-effects models should become the new standard for studying partisan influences.

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Multiple Regressionen mit unabhängigen Beobachtungen

Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft, 2020

Die multiple Regression ist eines der am weitesten verbreiteten multivariaten Verfahren zur Analy... more Die multiple Regression ist eines der am weitesten verbreiteten multivariaten Verfahren zur Analyse des Einflusses unabhangiger Variablen auf eine metrische abhangige Variable. Die unabhangigen Variablen durfen hierbei jedes beliebige Skalenniveau besitzen. Dabei konnen Aussagen uber die Starke des Zusammenhangs zwischen einzelnen Variablen und die Anpassungsgute des Modells insgesamt getroffen werden. Eine grundlegende Voraussetzung hierfur ist jedoch, dass die Annahmen des Modells halten, was empirisch uberpruft werden muss. Die Regression ermoglicht zudem auch die Erstellung von Prognosen. In abgewandelter Form lasst sich die Methode auch auf diskrete abhangige Variablen oder komplexere Daten mit Messwiederholungen, hierarchischer Struktur oder raumlichen Abhangigkeiten anwenden.

Die Auswirkungen der EU-Zuckermarktreform auf Drittstaaten: Arbeitsstandards in der Zuckerindustrie

Internationale Arbeitsstandards in einer globalisierten Welt, 2009

... in der Zuckerwirtschaft ihrer Länder angemessene Arbeitsbedingungen aufrechterhalten werden, ... more

Party politics and education spending: challenging some common wisdom

Journal of European Public Policy, 2015

Much literature has analysed parties' influence on public education spending. We challenge this l... more Much literature has analysed parties' influence on public education spending. We challenge this literature on theoretical, methodological and empirical grounds. It is standard to regress expenditure on cabinet seat share weighted party family dummies in time series cross section regressions using 'country year' data. But using 'country year' data artificially inflates the number of cases and leads to biased estimates, as governments usually do not change annually. Second, using party families as proxies for party preferences assumes that parties within families hold similar positions while they differ across families. But this is empirically often not the case. Finally, a historical institutionalist perspective suggests that we should not expect party effects anymore in the first place. Empirically, we propose a new design, using direct measures of party preferences in analyses on govern ment term level. We find that the partisan composition of government did not have any significant effects on education spending from 1995 to 2010 in 21 democ racies.

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Reforming the Stability and Growth Pact<br>in Times of Crisis

Multiple Regressionen mit unabhängigen Beobachtungen

Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft, 2020

Die multiple Regression ist eines der am weitesten verbreiteten multivariaten Verfahren zur Analy... more Die multiple Regression ist eines der am weitesten verbreiteten multivariaten Verfahren zur Analyse des Einflusses unabhangiger Variablen auf eine metrische abhangige Variable. Die unabhangigen Variablen durfen hierbei jedes beliebige Skalenniveau besitzen. Dabei konnen Aussagen uber die Starke des Zusammenhangs zwischen einzelnen Variablen und die Anpassungsgute des Modells insgesamt getroffen werden. Eine grundlegende Voraussetzung hierfur ist jedoch, dass die Annahmen des Modells halten, was empirisch uberpruft werden muss. Die Regression ermoglicht zudem auch die Erstellung von Prognosen. In abgewandelter Form lasst sich die Methode auch auf diskrete abhangige Variablen oder komplexere Daten mit Messwiederholungen, hierarchischer Struktur oder raumlichen Abhangigkeiten anwenden.

Party politics and education spending: challenging some common wisdom

Journal of European Public Policy, 2015

Much literature has analysed parties' influence on public education spending. We challenge this l... more Much literature has analysed parties' influence on public education spending. We challenge this literature on theoretical, methodological and empirical grounds. It is standard to regress expenditure on cabinet seat share weighted party family dummies in time series cross section regressions using 'country year' data. But using 'country year' data artificially inflates the number of cases and leads to biased estimates, as governments usually do not change annually. Second, using party families as proxies for party preferences assumes that parties within families hold similar positions while they differ across families. But this is empirically often not the case. Finally, a historical institutionalist perspective suggests that we should not expect party effects anymore in the first place. Empirically, we propose a new design, using direct measures of party preferences in analyses on govern ment term level. We find that the partisan composition of government did not have any significant effects on education spending from 1995 to 2010 in 21 democ racies.

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Party effects on total and disaggregated welfare spending – A mixed‐effects approach

European Journal of Political Research

Reforming the Stability and Growth Pact in Times of Crisis

Journal of Contemporary European Research, Dec 31, 2012

It is a commonplace that the mechanisms established in the stability and growth pact are blunt in... more It is a commonplace that the mechanisms established in the stability and growth pact are blunt instruments. They are highly politicised as both the establishment of infringements and possible sanctions are subject to votes in the EU Council. The financial crisis of 2009/10 has dramatically altered the financial situation of many EU member states and has also shown the need for new regulatory instruments to enforce budgetary discipline in the Euro zone. Figures on the EU member states' budget debts from 1999 to 2010 support this argument empirically. We discuss the current reform proposals and show that the introduction of a reversed qualified majority is likely to strengthen substantially the position of the European Commission to sanction non-complying member states. This becomes possible because decisive players in the EU Council will be closer to the position of the Commission.

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Die Auswirkungen der EU-Zuckermarktreform auf Drittstaaten: Arbeitsstandards in der Zuckerindustrie

Internationale Arbeitsstandards in einer globalisierten Welt, 2009

... in der Zuckerwirtschaft ihrer Länder angemessene Arbeitsbedingungen aufrechterhalten werden, ... more

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