Key research themes
1. How can administrative data and enhanced address systems improve the timeliness and precision of population estimates?
This research area explores the use of continuously updated Master Area Files (MAF) augmented into Enhanced Master Address Files (EMAF), merging administrative records with demographic and socio-economic data to generate timely, cost-effective, and fine-grained population estimates. It addresses the critical need for accurate small-area population data between decennial censuses, potentially reducing reliance on costly traditional surveys.
2. What are the demographic and economic implications of population decline and aging in advanced societies?
This theme investigates how declining fertility and population aging affect economic outcomes like GDP growth, labor participation, and unemployment rates. It challenges traditional assumptions that population decline inevitably harms economic prosperity, integrating demographic trends with modern growth theories and empirical analyses across countries exhibiting population declines.
3. How do local and probabilistic population projections enhance understanding of demographic future and planning?
This theme covers advancements in demographic projection methods, emphasizing probabilistic forecasts incorporating uncertainty and multi-dimensional population characteristics. It discusses the benefits of integrating local data, additional demographic factors (e.g., education), and evaluating projections’ accuracy to inform policy and planning over long horizons, particularly in contexts with complex population dynamics.