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Population Trends

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Population trends refer to the patterns and changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations over time. This field of study analyzes demographic factors such as birth rates, death rates, migration, and aging, providing insights into societal shifts and implications for economic, social, and environmental policies.
lightbulbAbout this topic
Population trends refer to the patterns and changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations over time. This field of study analyzes demographic factors such as birth rates, death rates, migration, and aging, providing insights into societal shifts and implications for economic, social, and environmental policies.

Key research themes

1. How can administrative data and enhanced address systems improve the timeliness and precision of population estimates?

This research area explores the use of continuously updated Master Area Files (MAF) augmented into Enhanced Master Address Files (EMAF), merging administrative records with demographic and socio-economic data to generate timely, cost-effective, and fine-grained population estimates. It addresses the critical need for accurate small-area population data between decennial censuses, potentially reducing reliance on costly traditional surveys.

Key finding: Proposes developing an Enhanced Master Address File (EMAF) by augmenting continuously updated MAF with demographic and socio-economic characteristics, allowing precise, timely estimates even at the census block level. This... Read more
Key finding: Analyzes the compatibility of ACS-based persons per household (PPH) estimates with demographic model-based estimates. Highlights a tension between the statistical perspective (acknowledging survey sample variability) and the... Read more
Key finding: Demonstrates that changes in socio-economic structures, such as deindustrialization in Indiana, significantly alter population estimation model coefficients over time, underscoring the need to integrate substantive... Read more

2. What are the demographic and economic implications of population decline and aging in advanced societies?

This theme investigates how declining fertility and population aging affect economic outcomes like GDP growth, labor participation, and unemployment rates. It challenges traditional assumptions that population decline inevitably harms economic prosperity, integrating demographic trends with modern growth theories and empirical analyses across countries exhibiting population declines.

Key finding: Using pooled mean group estimation across nineteen countries, finds that population decline can coexist with GDP growth and increased GDP per capita, paired with rising labor participation rates and falling unemployment.... Read more
Key finding: Analyzes the global demographic transition from rapid population growth in the 20th century to widespread low fertility and aging in the 21st century. It highlights the shift in population policy paradigms towards... Read more
Key finding: Identifies socio-economic pressures on young adults in West Bengal leading to declining fertility desires, migration-driven socio-economic shifts, and changing family planning perceptions. The study connects economic... Read more
Key finding: Highlights the ecological unsustainability of continuing population growth in affluent societies with high per capita consumption, using Finland as a case study. Offers a discursive framework urging ethically inclusive... Read more

3. How do local and probabilistic population projections enhance understanding of demographic future and planning?

This theme covers advancements in demographic projection methods, emphasizing probabilistic forecasts incorporating uncertainty and multi-dimensional population characteristics. It discusses the benefits of integrating local data, additional demographic factors (e.g., education), and evaluating projections’ accuracy to inform policy and planning over long horizons, particularly in contexts with complex population dynamics.

Key finding: Demonstrates the superiority of probabilistic population projections over traditional scenario-based approaches by providing confidence intervals and more realistic uncertainty estimates for fertility, mortality, and... Read more
Key finding: Uses detailed county-level cohort-component based projections to forecast that U.S. coastal counties will become significantly more diverse and older than inland counties by 2025, continuing through 2100. This fine-scale... Read more

All papers in Population Trends

Background: The conservation status of the common European adder (Vipera berus) in Sweden is ambiguous. While the species is officially classified as "Least Concern" (LC) on the national Red List, localised reports and long-term studies... more
An Imam-led Community: Demographics, Social Cohesion, and the Authority of Cape Muslim Leaders in 19th-Century Colonial Cape Town ABSTRACT This subsection analyses an 1839 community census, meticulously compiled by Imams in colonial... more
A preliminary study of the representation of gods as allies in war (σύμμαχοι) in 4th-century literary sources, in light of the religious competition between “pagans” and Christians
Polygamy movement that often discredits women is increasingly taking a place in modern urban society. Polygamy has existed before Islam coming and became a legal practice which powered by the Quran after Islam coming. However, global... more
environment, development This study investigates the implications of population dynamics on development in Iringa Municipality Tanzania. A total of 209 respondents were involved in this study. The study used both quantitative and... more
The 1947 Partition of India and Pakistan exposed the extreme vulnerability of women, who became primary targets of gendered violence amidst the chaos. Women suffered extensively—physically, psychologically, and emotionally—during the... more
This study aimed to describe and analyze the trend in the rates of Family Health Strategy (FHS) oral health teams from 2001 to 2021. The 5,560 municipalities existing in Brazil in 2002 were included in this ecological study. The data were... more
Main carer interview 13,287 13,177 (99.2%) Resident partner interview 10,153 8,814 (86.8%) Child cognitive assessments 13,469 13,235 (98.3%) Child physical measurements 13,469 13,259 (98.4%) Child self-completion questionnaire 13,469... more
BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and... more
"The world is not sliding, but galloping into a new transnational dystopia. .. The internet, our greatest tool of emancipation, has been transformed into the most dangerous facilitator of totalitarianism we have ever seen. The Internet is... more
The Ojude Oba festival is an important cultural festival in Ijebu ode, Ogun State, Southwestern Nigeria. It is an event held annually that spotlights the rich cultural heritage and traditions of the Ijebu people. Ojude Oba festival... more
Cross-border crimes refer to those crimes that are committed across international borders. The perpetrators of such crimes often work in synergy on both sides of the border. This poses a serious security threat to the countries where the... more
The role of women in decolonization in Nigeria has not received the scholarly attention that it deserves. The political administration which the colonial authorities introduced, gave women little right to participate in the political... more
Education is an important aspect of human society that has link with all sectors and facets of life. The study examined the impacts of school dropout on human security in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. The study utilized the life chance theory... more
This research examines culture as a strategic instrument for conflict de-escalation and peace sustainability in Nigeria, a nation beset by complex ethno-religious diversity and repetitive communal conflict. Rooted in Johan Galtung‘s... more
Sex. Petronius Probus was the most powerful senator of the second half of the 4th century AD. In less than 20 years, between 368 and 385 AD, he held the praetorian prefecture of Italy-Africa and Illyricum four times. Valentinian I, an... more
“ਮੇਰੀ ਮਾਂ ਦੀ ਕੁੱਖ ਮਜ਼ਬੂਰ ਸੀ!
 ਮੈਂ ਭੀ ਤਾਂ ਇਕ ਇਨਸਾਨ ਹਾਂ ,
 ਆਜ਼ਾਦੀਆਂ ਦੀ ਟੱਕਰ ਵਿੱਚ ਉਸ ਸੱਟ ਦਾ ਨਿਸ਼ਾਨ ਹਾਂ ,
 ਉਸ ਹਾਦਸੇ ਦਾ ਚਿੰਨ ਹਾਂ ,
 ਜੋ ਮਾਂ ਮੇਰੀ ਦੇ ਮੱਥੇ ਉੱਤੇ ਲੱਗਣਾ ਜ਼ਰੂਰੀ ਸੀ…..” “When they forced my mother’s womb; I came as every child must... more
This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case... more
Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal... more
Almost immediately after the Arab uprisings began, there was debate over the role and influence of social media in the overthrow of Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and the imminent coup of Mubarak. In covering what some deemed... more
Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in... more
Even though cohabitation has become more prevalent in the last few decades, the majority of the adult population is married, and marriage is associated with a number of factors, such as educational outcom and health. Understanding the... more
Revised draft of my paper on the meaning of the Book of Esther in relationship to the Iran-Israel War of June, 2025.
Esta influencia, que no necesariamente tiene que haber llegado directamente de obras originales griegas, sino también de otros autores, compilaciones y traducciones al latín, se manifiesta tanto en el contenido como en la expresión formal... more
A diferencia del mundo desarrollado, donde la cohabitación ha logrado visibilidad social -y académicasolamente en las dos últimas décadas (Bumpass, Sweet y Cherlin, 1991) y donde aparece enmarcada dentro del conjunto de transformaciones... more
We analyzed changes in abundance of terrestrial birds on St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, for a 32 year period during which 3 major hurricanes occurred. Using 1987 as a baseline year, because it followed a 27 year hiatus when no major... more
Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in... more
Introduction California Polytechnic State University has an earned reputation as a proponent of the hands-on, laboratory-based, learn-by-doing approach to education. We have also won a reputation as a college whose students are steeped in... more
доктор географічних наук, професор професор кафедри геодезії, землеустрою та земельного кадастру, Одеський державний аграрний університет, м. Одеса, Україна Проведені дослідження [1] виявили відсутність забруднення ґрунтів при підриві... more
We have known from the primary school age that West Bengal is one of the most densely populated states in India. The pressures of overpopulation, the shrinking market of Government jobs, the crowds of educated unemployed, unmarried and... more
The present study aims at investigating the sovereignty and Theo-democracy in Sayyid Abul-Aꜥla Mawdudi’s thought. The research method is descriptive-analytical and shows that Sayyid Abul-Aꜥla Mawdudi has founded his political theory on... more
The working papers are a series of manuscripts in their draft form. Please do not quote without obtaining the author's consent as these works are in their draft form. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not... more
Les sources traitant du triomphe d'Honorius sur l'usurpateur Attale à Rome et du châtiment de celui-ci, probablement en 417 1 -sans doute l'ultime triomphe romain -sont maigres : un passage de la Chronique de Prosper Tiro, seul à évoquer... more
Knowledge is identified as a critical factor for innovation. On the other side, knowledge creation takes place through investing on R&D activities and developing new products. Furthermore, not all types of R&D activities result in similar... more
Slides presented during a debate with Ridvan Ayedemir on 14 April 2025, evaluating Islam and Christianity as civilizational frameworks. The analysis compares doctrinal ideals—Sharia and Biblical law—across five domains: worldview, moral... more
No study has simultaneously compared attitudes of whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics toward intermarriage over time. This study offers a comparative analysis of the changes in attitudes of whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics toward... more
Between the 4th and 5th centuries, Roman North Africa underwent one of the most significant and decisive religious changes in its history. Slowly, society as conceived by the founding fathers of the Principate system is cracking, giving... more
Islamic historiography started evolving during the time of the rightly guided caliphs. However, it strongly emerged during the Umayyads' rule and reached its apogee during the Abbasid period. Similarly, the trend of compilation of Aḥādīth... more
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