Model integration

We describe a new integration model that uses tools and services for supporting Web 2.0. This integration model defines a structure for a missing feature of Web 2.0. The model integrates a number of existing online tools having a common data model and aims to develop added-value community-building integrated environments. We discuss the overall design, architecture and the components of the integration model, and provide a roadmap of the future work of this model in the Web 2.0 domain.

Public Private Partnership (PPP) are agreements where public bodies enter into long term contractual with private entities for construction or management the public sector facilities, or provision services to the community. Internal rate of return (IRR), pay back regime or tariff, and the concession period (CP) are essential items to success (PPP) projects. This research presents a systematic approach for a win-win partnership contract determined on a quantitative basis, by informing the partnership parties how long contract period should be made. Essence of the proposed methodology is that project completion time should allow a competent contractor to complete the project on schedule and operation period should be long enough to enable the concessionaire to achieve a reasonable return, but not too long such that concessionaire's return is excessive and public sector's interests are sacrificed. A case study of a PPP project in Mayoralty of Baghdad was conducted to evaluate performance of the developed mathematical models. The determined concession period (CP) has found to be approximately equal to actual concession period (CP) granted to the private sector. Evaluation shows the possibility to adopt the proposed approach to determine the concession period (CP) more effectively. Instead of opportunism policy, the proposed methodology enables local government of Baghdad province to enhance its policies of awarding the partnership projects to increase private sector participation in infrastructure development. Finally, the proposed method can be used by investment practitioners as a decision support tool for contract concession period (CP), and is worth popularizing to design the contracted concession period (CCP) for partnership projects in Iraq, and also can use as a methodology to assess the critical aspects which related to partnership projects in general.

This paper presents a compact modeling methodology for inductors and capacitors based on transmission-line theory. Using continued fractions approximation, second-and third-order intrinsic inductor and capacitor models are demonstrated. With the second-order model, one can accurately predict inductor and capacitor behavior up to their first resonance frequencies. With the third-order model, one can match the measured inductor or capacitor response beyond the first resonance frequency. Wideband accurate passive models developed here are essential for transient and harmonic-balance analysis where out-of-band frequencies are important. The model parameters are extracted directly from -parameter measurement without a need for optimization. Furthermore, the frequency-dependent nonlinear effects of spiral inductors and metal-insulator-metal capacitors are expressed based on simple models without resorting to frequency-dependent parameters.

The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry‐climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal‐2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. Wh...

I consider an economy growing along the balanced growth path, that is hit by an adverse shock to its capital accumulation process. The model integrates efficiency wages due to imperfect monitoring of the quality of labour in a search and matching framework with methods of dynamic general equilibrium analysis. I show that, depending on the firms' abilities to assess workers' performance, the discipline device role of unemployment may account for sharp declines in employment and jobless recoveries driven by exceptional increases in the work effort of employees. The model also explains why rigid real wages may prevail in equilibrium: the large movements in unemployment are indeed associated with real wage rigidity, which is generated endogenously by efficiency wages.

I consider an economy growing along the balanced growth path, that is hit by an adverse shock to its capital accumulation process. The model integrates efficiency wages due to imperfect monitoring of the quality of labour in a search and matching framework with methods of dynamic general equilibrium analysis. I show that, depending on the firms' abilities to assess workers' performance, the discipline device role of unemployment may account for sharp declines in employment and jobless recoveries driven by exceptional increases in the work effort of employees. The model also explains why rigid real wages may prevail in equilibrium: the large movements in unemployment are indeed associated with real wage rigidity, which is generated endogenously by efficiency wages.

One of the main problems in the water supply system in the city of Cali is related to the water quality of the Cauca River. An important source of pollution upstream of the intake of the Puerto Mallarino Treatment Plant (PMTP) is the south channel, part of the South Drainage System (SDS), which discharges into the Cauca River. The existing Early Warning System (EWS) prototype named EWS-Centinela aims to use real-time data from the Milán Station located in the Navarro area and data generated from the intake of the PMTP. EWS-Centinela estimates the risk level of a critical pollution event that may exceed levels of purification in the PMTP. In order to contribute to finding solutions, this research aims to show the potential that the integration of prediction models could have in improving the water quality estimation of the Cauca River. To this end, an urban drainage model of the SDS for Cali was developed using PCSWMM software. The existing water quality model of the Cauca River developed in MIKE 11 program was used along with the existing prototype EWS-Centinela. The input rainfall data to the urban drainage model was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The proposed integration shows not only the SDS effects in terms of quality and quantity of discharge into the Cauca River, but is also a tool for decision-making facing the high risk of pollution of the supply source for this city.

The near‐sea‐surface meteorological conditions associated with strong wind events over the Mediterranean Sea constitute a strong forcing on the ocean mixed layer. The present study addresses the question of the sea surface scheme used in high‐resolution and short‐range atmospheric numerical modeling to represent the ocean mixed layer response under these severe mistral wind events in the Gulf of Lions area. Several slab ocean models have been used coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and applied on two mistral cases: (1) a slab model based on the transport divergence equation where the mixed layer evolution is only driven by the wind stress, (2) a slab model where the temperature is the only prognostic variable and evolves according to the net surface heat flux, and (3) a complete slab scheme from Price (1981). The coupled simulations are also compared to two basic simulations, one using a constant sea surface temperature (SST) field during all of the model ...

An integrated system for hydrogen production via autothermal steam reforming of methanol and consequent power generation in a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell has been developed and operated at C.P.E.R.I. The pilot plant comprises an autothermal reforming reactor to produce hydrogen, a preferential oxidation reactor (PROX) to reduce CO concentration below 50 ppm and a PEM fuel cell for power generation. The present paper deals with the study of this system, both from an experimental and a theoretical point of view. The experimental work aims to: (a) examine the effect of the reforming temperature on methanol conversion and on the effluent stream concentration, (b) investigate the effect of reaction temperature and O 2 /CO ratio on the performance of the PROX reactor, and (c) evaluate the operation of a 10-cell PEM fuel cell, using pure hydrogen and air at three temperature levels. The experimental data are subsequently utilized for the validation of one-dimensional pseudo-homogeneous models that have been developed for the two reactors and also for the identification of the voltage-current characteristic curve of the PEM fuel cell. The validated models are then used to investigate the behavior and explore the interactions, both static and dynamic, among the various process subsystems.

In this paper we describe a method to obtain summaries focussed on chosen characters of a free text. Summaries are extracted from discourse structures, which resemble rhetorical trees. They are obtained by exploiting cohesion and coherence properties of the text. Evaluation intends to evidence the contribution of each module in the final result.

In order to study the variations of mechanical components of an assembly, the accumulation of tolerances may be calculated using two major approaches: the Worst Case method and the Statistical (or probabilistic) method. The Worst Case method is very simple and well known. It must be applied only for simple assemblies where a larger allowance of the available space is

A real-life application of a new approach to integrated assessment and screening of water quality improvement strategies in large river basins is presented. The approach is based on the integration of diverse data and mathematical models as well as on the application of interactive visualization of the Pareto frontier. The case study water quality planning in the Oka River, the Volga River basin, is presented within the framework of a DSS for screening water quality planning strategies. The Decision Support System (DSS) was commissioned by the Russian Federal Ministry for Natural Resources within the Federal programme ''Revival of the Volga River''.

We present a dynamic model of endogenous interest group sizes and policymaking. Our model integrates 'top-down' (policy) and 'bottom-up' (behavioral) in ‡uences on the development of interest groups. We show that, for example an increase in the contribution by members of an interest group need not induce larger subsidies to that group, even though it would in case of …xed interest group sizes. This is due to a political participation e¤ect, next to a redistribution e¤ect. On the other hand, the dynamic analysis of the model shows that reliance on equilibrium results such as these can be misleading since equilibria may not be stable. In fact, complicated dynamics may emerge leading to erratic and path dependent time patterns for policy and interest group sizes. We demonstrate that our model can endogenously generate the types of spurts and declines in organizational density that are observed in empirical studies.

We present a dynamic model of endogenous interest group sizes and policymaking. The model integrates 'top-down' (policy) and 'bottom-up' (individual and social-structural) influences on the development of interest groups. Comparative statics results show that the standard assumption of fixed-sized interest groups can be misleading. Furthermore, dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that reliance on equilibrium results can also be misleading since equilibria may be unstable. Complicated dynamics may then emerge naturally,

Understanding the characteristics of design knowledge, and finding ways to support novices in gaining it is of high importance in many design fields. This research examined the nature of design knowledge in three semesterlong courses in which graduate students learned to design technology-based curriculum modules. All courses were based on an instructional model developed in a design-based research methodology with four iterations. The model integrates the openness and reflective nature of a studio instructional approach, with the structure of a well-known instructional systems design process. It also takes advantage of experts' design knowledge embedded in a design principles and patterns database. Qualitative data was used to characterize how students acquired design knowledge, and a rubric was developed to evaluate the degree to which students were able to translate their design ideas into design artifacts. Outcomes indicate that many students had difficulties in concretizing their design ideas, and that successive versions of the instructional model better supported students in acquiring this skill. We view concretization as an important aspect of design knowledge, and claim that it helps students relate between their own design ideas and advanced pedagogical ideas expressed in experts' design knowledge.

Empty container logistics is one of the most relevant costs for shipping companies. Thus, efficient empty container management is a key issue in the maritime business. This article analyzes the problem from the local maritime agent point of view, which controls and manages land container logistics. Specifically, it is presented a mathematical model to optimize land empty container movements among shippers, consignees, terminals and depots, along with minimizing storage costs. The mathematical model is defined, tested with real data and solved by using CPLEX. Obtained results confirm the benefits of implementing this kind of models. Finally, future research lines in empty container logistics are identified.

Empty maritime container logistics is one of the most relevant costs for shipping companies. In this paper two mathematical models (based on two different container movement patterns, i.e. with and without street-turns) were defined to optimize land empty container movements among shippers, consignees, terminals and depots, along with minimizing storage costs. One of the proposed optimization models was embedded in a simple Decision Support System (DSS) and then tested with real data, based on the operations in Valencia's (Spain) hinterland. The results obtained confirm the benefits of implementing these kinds of models for the company, and additional experiments assess and quantify the advantage of using the more complex approach that is able to implement street-turn patterns.

We study an economic decision problem where the actors are two firms and the Antitrust Authority whose main task is to monitor and prevent firms' potential anti-competitive behaviour and its effect on the market. The Antitrust Authority's decision process is modelled using a Bayesian network where both the relational structure and the parameters of the model are estimated from a data set provided by the Authority itself. A number of economic variables that influence this decision process are also included in the model. We analyse how monitoring by the Antitrust Authority affects firms' strategies about cooperation. Firms' strategies are modelled as a repeated prisoner's dilemma using object-oriented Bayesian networks. We show how the integration of firms' decision process and external market information can be modelled in this way. Various decision scenarios and strategies are illustrated.

We investigate the integrability of cosmic strings in Bianchi III spacetime in presence of a bulk viscous fluid by applying a new technique. The behaviour of the model is reduced to the solution of a single second order nonlinear differential equation. We show that this equation admits an infinite family of solutions. Some physical consequences from these results are also discussed.

The process of planning to teach mathematics is complex and idiosyncratic and is gaining increased attention in educational research. In this paper, I propose a framework for conceptualising the critical factors that influence teachers' mathematics planning decisions. The framework is informed by the analysis of teacher survey data (n=114) and two case studies, a Year 1 (n=5) and Year 5 (n=4) teaching team. In this paper I illustrate the way the framework enhanced the analysis and discussion of the Year 5 case study. The potential of the framework to drive future research and teacher professional learning is discussed.

This paper presents the technical characteristics and methodologies underlying the computeraided modelling and simulation of fabrication and assembly plants through an object-driven approach. The paper is organized in four main sections. The first and second sections discuss the needs for model integration and then outline the modelling and simulation approach used. The third and fourth sections illustrate an application of the approach for modelling and simulating a specific fabrication and assembly plant.

Meditation training has been shown to improve attention and emotion regulation. However, the mechanisms responsible for these effects are largely unknown. In order to make further progress, a rigorous interdisciplinary approach that combines both empirical and theoretical experiments is required. This dissertation uses such an approach to analyze electroencephalogram (EEG) data collected during two three-month long intensive meditation retreats in four steps. First, novel tools were developed for preprocessing the EEG data. These tools helped remove ocular artifacts, muscular artifacts, and interference from power lines in a semi-automatic fashion. Second, in order to identify the cortical correlates of meditation, longitudinal changes in the cortical activity were measured using spectral analysis. Three main longitudinal changes were observed in the retreat participants: (1) reduced individual alpha frequency after training, similar reduction has been consistently found in experienced meditators; (2) reduced alpha-band power in the midline frontal region, which correlated with improved vigilance performance; and (3) reduced beta-band power in the parietal-occipital regions, vii which correlated with daily time spent in meditation and enhanced self-reported psychological well-being. Third, a formal computational model was developed to provide a concrete and testable theory about the underlying mechanisms. Four theoretical experiments were run, which showed, (1) reduced intrathalamic gain after training, suggesting enhanced alertness; (2) increased cortico-thalamic delay, which strongly correlated with the reduction in individual alpha frequency (found during spectral analysis); (3) reduction in intrathalamic gain provided increased stability to the brain; and (4) anterior-posterior division in the modeled reticular nucleus of the thalamus (TRN) layer and increased connectivity in the posterior region of TRN after training. Fourth, correlation analysis was performed to ground the changes in cortical activity and model parameters into changes in behavior and self-reported psychological functions. Through these four steps, a concrete theory of the mechanisms underlying focusedattention meditation was constructed. This theory provides both mechanistic and teleological reasoning behind the changes observed during meditation training. The theory further leads to several predictions, including the possibility that customized meditation techniques can be used to treat patients suffering from neurodevelopmental disorders and epilepsy. Lastly, the dissertation attempts to link the theory to the long-held views that meditation improves awareness, attention, stability, and psychological well-being. viii

Integrated environmental modeling enables the development of comprehensive simulations by compositing individual models within and across disciplines. The Simple Script Wrapper (SSW), developed here, provides a foundation for model linkages and integrated studies. The Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) enables model integration but it is challenging to incorporate scripting languages commonly used for modeling and analysis such as MATLAB, Scilab, and Python. We have developed a generalpurpose software component for the OpenMI that simplifies the linking of scripted models to other components. Our solution enables scientists to easily make their scripting language code linkable to OpenMI-compliant models fostering collaborative, interdisciplinary integrated modeling. The simplicity afforded by our solution is presented in a case study set in the context of irrigated agriculture. The software is available online as supplementary material and includes an example that may be followed to employ our methods.

Heme is a common factor linking several metabolic perturbations in Alzheimer's disease (AD), including iron metabolism, mitochondrial complex IV, heme oxygenase, and bilirubin. Therefore, we determined whether heme metabolism was altered in temporal lobes obtained at autopsy from AD patients and age-matched nondemented subjects. AD brain demonstrated 2.5-fold more heme-b (P < 0.01) and 26% less heme-a (P ‫؍‬ 0.16) compared with controls, resulting in a highly significant 2.9-fold decrease in heme-a͞heme-b ratio (P < 0.001). Moreover, the strong Pearson correlation between heme-a and heme-b measured in control individuals (r 2 ‫؍‬ 0.66, P < 0.002, n ‫؍‬ 11) was abolished in AD subjects (r 2 ‫؍‬ 0.076, P ‫؍‬ 0.39, n ‫؍‬ 12). The level of ferrochelatase (which makes heme-b in the mitochondrial matrix) in AD subjects was 4.2 times (P < 0.04) that in nondemented controls, suggesting up-regulated heme synthesis. To look for a possible connection between these observations and established mechanisms in AD pathology, we examined possible interactions between amyloid ␤ (A␤) and heme. A␤(1-40) and A␤(1-42) induced a redshift of 15-20 nm in the spectrum of heme-b and heme-a, suggesting that heme binds A␤, likely to one or more of the histidine residues. Lastly, in a tissue culture model, we found that clioquinol, a metal chelator in clinical trials for AD therapy, decreased intracellular heme. In light of these observations, we have proposed a model of AD pathobiology in which intracellular A␤ complexes with free heme, thereby decreasing its bioavailability (e.g., heme-a) and resulting in functional heme deficiency. The model integrates disparate observations, including A␤, mitochondrial dysfunction, cholesterol, and the proposed efficacy of clioquinol. mitochondria ͉ heme-a ͉ iron ͉ clioquinol ͉ ferrochelatase H eme (ferriprotoporphyrin IX) metabolism appears altered in the brains of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Heme oxygenase (HO) increases in AD (1, 2), and the level of bilirubin (one of the products of heme degradation by HO) is increased in AD patients (3). Mitochondrial complex IV, the only enzyme in cells that contains heme-a (see below) (4), declines in AD (5-8). Heme-a is rate limiting for the assembly of complex IV (9). Furthermore, an inhibitor of muscarinic acetylcholine receptor binding, which increased in AD brain, was suggested to be heme . Therefore, we studied heme metabolism in AD brain and nondemented age-matched normal subjects. Heme-b, the product of ferrochelatase (FC) (also known as protoheme), is produced in the mitochondrial matrix (12, 13) and is the precursor for heme-c and heme-a. The structure of heme-c is similar to that of heme-b, but it is covalently attached to a few specific proteins (reviewed in ref. ). Heme-b and heme-a exist in two major pools in the cell, free and protein-associated. Conversion of heme-b to heme-a requires farnasylation and oxidation (15). Farnesyl-pyrophsphate (FPP) is the precursor for the farnesyl moiety in heme-a, cholesterol, dolichol, farnesylation of specific proteins, and coenzyme Q (16). Thus, the heme-a maturation pathway appears to compete with several metabolic pathways for the FPP. Physiologically relevant metals, such as iron, zinc, or copper, can accelerate amyloid ␤ (A␤) aggregation in vitro (17). Clio-

This article was written as part of the CNB's research programme. However, it presents authors' own opinions that may not correspond to the views either of the CNB or the IMF. The authors would like to thank to Ale‰ Bulífi, Vratislav Izák, and Richard Podpiera, participants of two research seminars at the CNB as well as to two annonymous referees for their useful comments, which helped to improve this paper. All remaining errors and omissions are those of the authors.

A novel Network-based Integrated Choice Evaluation (NICE) model is developed to enhance the multinomial logit preference (MNL) model that is widely employed in the existing port choice literature. The NICE model integrates the element of port service network with observational port attributes to identify important quality characteristics on which liner shipping companies base their port choices. An empirical study of the proposed model is conducted through the service schedules of three established liner shipping companies. Results show that port efficiency and scale economies are the more important dimensions influencing liner shipping companies' selection of major Asian ports. Nevertheless, it is important for a competitive port to balance its efforts among all the dimensions.

A relatively new software package has emerged that facilitates the modeling of Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (LXSS) systems. The Signal Processing Worksystem with Block Oriented Sofiware Simulator (SPWIBOSS) by Comdisco [l] provides the flexibility of an open architecture and the strength of a vast component library. It was used extemively in this paper to generate models and simulate Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) systems. The upcoming examples feature data sources andspreading mechanisms designedwith individual Pseudo-Noise (PN) sequence generators with different polynomiul orders, channels containing Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN), and receivers made up of ConventionalSliding Correlators (CSC) that are usedas test bed to measure model integrity andperformance trends. Contained within the CSC i s a local PN generator with a sequence that matches the targeted transmitter, except for a possiblephase sh@ Further complexity is added to the models by studying the "near-far"prob1em associated with CDMA systems. These effects are simulated in software by altering the amplitudes of the transmitted signals. simulation results are compared to analyticalpredications.

This paper seeks to address the question “How much is enough?” when it comes to modelling sociotechnical problems. Of particular concern is the impact of social and cultural variability on the ability of forces to implement and exploit Network Enabled ...

Quantitative researchers distinguish between causal and effect indicators. What are the analytic problems when both types of measures are present in a quantitative reasoned action analysis? To answer this question, the authors use data from a longitudinal study to estimate the association between two constructs central to reasoned action theory: behavioral beliefs and attitudes toward the behavior. The belief items are causal indicators that define a latent variable index while the attitude items are effect indicators that reflect the operation of a latent variable scale. The authors identify the issues when effect and causal indicators are present in a single analysis and conclude that both types of indicators can be incorporated into analyses of data based on the reasoned action approach.

gave helpful comments, and we have benefited from seminars at MIT, Berkeley, the Centre for Financial Studies (Frankfurt), DELTA (Paris), and the CEPR European Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

We propose a hole decomposition scheme to exactly solve a class of spin-1 quantum Ising models with transverse or longitudinal single-ion anisotropy. In this scheme, the spin-1 model is mapped onto a family of the S = 1/2 transverse Ising models, characterized by the total number of holes. A recursion formula is derived for the partition function based on the reduced S = 1/2 Ising model. This simplifies greatly the summation over all the hole configurations. It allows the thermodynamic quantities to be rigorously determined in the thermodynamic limit. The ground state phase diagram is determined for both the uniform and dimerized spin chains. The corresponding thermodynamic properties are calculated and discussed.

where he started work under Aleksander S. Popel, characterizing the role of matrix metalloproteinase 9. He is an M.S. candidate in biomedical engineering at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, under the mentorship of Aleksander S. Popel. His research focuses on the kinetic characterization of matrix metalloproteinase systems as well as their interactions with vascular endothelial growth factor to elucidate their roles in angiogenesis.

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Energy has become one of the most crucial problem in modern society which must be investigated, analyzed and solved. The main goal of this dissertation is to look at the economics of energy by analyzing the relationship between the availability of energy resources and the economic activity in a network context. The idea is to provide an efficient distribution of energy resources. The methodology that has been used is that of Network Flow optimization and it has been applied to solve Integrated Energy Systems problems

Under a Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) project, targeted to study the feasibility to link regional climate models with lake models, one of the tasks was to consider such a coupling in large lakes. The objective is to provide detailed information on temperature and circulation distributions of the lake to take into account the spatial variability for temperature and the heat exchange through the water's surface. The major contribution of this work is focused on realistic representation of the heat fluxes and temperature distributions to and from lakes especially during the thermally stratified ice-free periods. This paper presents the detailed 3-D ELCOM model applied in Lake Erie in order to produce, at the surface layer of the lake, the spatial distribution of temperature and heat exchanges that eventually can be coupled with a regional climate model (CRCM). Preliminary results will be presented on how this lake model may improve the regional climate models, which currently do not consider such large lake circulation effects.

The basal ganglia (BG) have long been implicated in both motor function and dysfunction. It has been proposed that the BG form a centralized action selection circuit, resolving conflict between multiple neural systems competing for access to the final common motor pathway. We present a new spiking neuron model of the BG circuitry to test this proposal, incorporating all major features and many physiologically plausible details. We include the following: effects of dopamine in the subthalamic nucleus (STN) and globus pallidus (GP), transmission delays between neurons, and specific distributions of synaptic inputs over dendrites. All main parameters were derived from experimental studies. We find that the BG circuitry supports motor program selection and switching, which deteriorates under dopamine-depleted and dopamine-excessive conditions in a manner consistent with some pathologies associated with those dopamine states. We also validated the model against data describing oscillator...

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rural livelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies' implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rural livelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide.

Psoriasis is a common and debilitating disease of the skin, nails, and joints, with an acknowledged but complex genetic basis. Early genome-wide linkage studies of psoriasis focused on segregation of microsatellite markers in families; however, the only locus consistently identified resided in the major histocompatibility complex. Subsequently, several groups mapped this locus to the vicinity of HLA-C, and two groups have reported HLA-Cw6 itself to be the major susceptibility allele. More recently, the development of millions of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, coupled with the development of high-throughput genotyping platforms and a comprehensive map of human haplotypes, has made possible a genome-wide association approach using cases and controls rather than families. Taking advantage of these developments, we participated in a collaborative genome-wide association study of psoriasis involving thousands of cases and controls. Initial analysis of these data revealed and/or confirmed association between psoriasis and seven genetic loci-HLA-C, IL12B, IL23R, IL23A, IL4/IL13, TNFAIP3, and TNIP1-and ongoing studies are revealing additional loci. Here, we review the epidemiology, immunopathology, and genetics of psoriasis, and present a disease model integrating its genetics and immunology.

A ecological sub-model for rice growth, adapted to the culture processes used in the lower Mondego river valley (Portugal), is presented. The structure of the model is based on the production of carbohydrates by the photosynthesis. Parallel structures were used to simulate the development stage of the crop, and the tillering process. The model is composed of 11 state variables, 14 forcing functions, 22 rate processes, 9 parameters and 17 switches, regulatory processes and calculated values. Simulations were performed for periods ranging from January 1995 to October 1996. During this period the simulation results were compared with data on aerial rice biomass and also on the tiller density. In addition, the simulated final rice production parameters were compared with the observed values for both years. It can be stated that the model performs well in what regards prediction of final production parameters but it underestimated rice biomass during the growth period. Although at this stage the model is mainly directed towards research, the final purpose is the management of crayfish and rice production. In order to achieve this aim, it will be necessary to couple several sub-models.

An ecological sub-model of crayfish (Procambarus clarkii ) population dynamics is presented for integration into the CRISP (crayfish and rice integrated system of production) series of models. The present structure is directed towards simulation of crayfish population responses under different human interventions, namely different capture rates. The crayfish population was subdivided into seven age classes of 80 days, each one constituting a state variable. The increase in weight for each 80-day period was considered dependent on the temperature, the oxygen level and the water level. Mortality was assumed to be dependent on the dry weight of the crayfish and regulated by the total crayfish biomass. Food, water and oxygen content of the water were considered to be non limiting. Total crayfish biomass and total wet weight of crayfish captures were very sensitive to both the temperature for maximum growth and the mortality rates. Our most optimistic simulation, with a 50% decrease in the mortality rates, resulted in a fourfold increase in captures, from 230 to 917 kg ha -1 per year. Without capture, a value of 121 kg ha -1 was simulated for the average crayfish biomass, which is close to the 124 kg ha -1 obtained with crayfish capture. Our simulated average crayfish biomass was approximately 120 kg ha -1 in a natural situation, which lies inside the reported ranges from areas at approximately the same latitude.

Engineering ystems are becoming increasingly complex as state of the art technologies are incorporated into designs. Surety modeling and analysis is an emerging science that permits an engineer to qualitatively and quantitatively predict and assess the completeness and predictability of a design. Surety is a term often used in the Department of Defense POD) and Department of Energv (DOE) communities, which refers to the integration of safety, security, reliability and performance aspects of design. Current risk assessment technologies for analyzing complex ystems fail to adequately describe the problem, thus making assessment Pagmented and non-integrated. To address this problem, we have developed a methodology and extensible sofiare toolset to address model integration and complexity for high consequence systems. The MultiGraph Architecture (MGA) facilitates multidomain, model-integrated modeling and analyses of complex, high-assurance systems. The MGA modeling environment allows the engineer to customize the modeling environment to match a design paradigm representative of the actual design. Previous modeling tools have a predefined model space that forces the modeler to work in less than optimal environments. Current approaches force the problem to be bounded and constrained by requirements of the modeling tool and not the actual design problem. In some small cases, this is only marginally adequate. The MGA facilitates the implementation of a surety methodology, which is used to represent high assurance systems with respect to safety and reliability. Formal mathematical models rn used to correctly describe design safety and reliability functionality and behavior: n e ficnctional and behavioral mpresentations of the design are then analyzed using commercial-ofl-the-shelf (COTS) tools.