Integrated assessment

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue, ''China's Forest Carbon Sequestration'', representing major results of a project sponsored by the Canadian International Development Agency and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. China occupies a pivotal position globally as a principle emitter of carbon dioxide, as host to some of the world's largest reforestation efforts, and as a key player in international negotiations aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emission. The goals of this project are to develop remote sensing approaches for quantifying forest carbon balance in China in a transparent manner, and information and tools to support land-use decisions for enhanced carbon sequestration (CS) that are science based and economically and socially viable. The project consists of three components: (i) remote sensing and carbon modeling, (ii) forest and soil assessment, and (iii) integrated assessment of the socioeconomic implications of CS via forest management. Articles included in this special issue are highlights of the results of each of these components.

The complex systemic nature of fisheries was recognized by scientists many decades ago but the attempts to take this evidence into consideration in day-to-day management processes have been slow, patchy and of limited effectiveness. Clearly, there remains an implementation challenge in this regard; the present paper examines the essential nature of fishery systems and linkages, why the implementation challenge persists, and some key new directions. After a brief introduction, an historical review is provided of the evolution of fisheries assessment and modelling, highlighting the growing complexity resulting from changing social demands. The ''complexity syndrome'' is described in terms of scope, boundaries, scales, components and linkages within the fishery system. These aspects can cause losses in understanding, predictability and controllability, owing to delays, teleconnections, scale dependence, and self-organizational capacity. Key issues addressed relate to systemic aspects of fisheries governance and of the fishery research needed to support it. Particular reference is made to the changes needed to adapt to the new emerging relations between science, policy-making and society within complex fishery systems, and between those systems and their environment. A range of concepts and approaches, such as integrated assessment, is elaborated as epistemological and operational frameworks to support the transition process. The conclusion looks at the evolution of the global fishery system and briefly reviews the challenges faced by science and governance.

The role that cities play in the transition to more sustainable growth is gaining increasing recognition. Measuring progress towards sustainable urban development requires quantifying this multi-dimensional phenomenon with the help of composite indicators. The purpose of this study is to propose an integrated approach to build a sustainable cities' interval of composite indicators that rely on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework. In addition, we propose to overcome the problem of calculating a single number by constructing a strong-weak sustainability performance interval depending on the choice of the compensability level in the aggregation stage of individual indicators. One of the advantages of this interval is that it provides information on both the average performance and the worst value of the set of indicators considered for each SDG. Moreover, it also extends the analysis for the people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership dimensions defined by the 2030 Agenda. As an example of application, we constructed these intervals for 50 Spanish cities, which are provincial capitals. This application lets us get a more accurate vision that can serve as a valuable tool for better urban planning design.

In 1932, the Esera river was dammed at the foothills of the Pyrenean External Ranges; since then, sedimentation has reduced its water storage capacity by a third. This study of the sediments in the Joaquín Costa reservoir has been based on detailed sedimentological examination and other analysis of mineralogy, grain size distribution and the chemical components of the materials accumulated at the bottom of the reservoir. Interpretations are based on results from four sediment cores collected at sites representative of the main environments in the reservoir. Records of known flood events and of reservoir management data have been combined with a 137 Cs-derived chronology. Thus, it has been possible to ascribe the sedimentary record at the different reservoir environments to specific years, as well as some main changes in the facies types and sediment components. This methodology is a first approach to assessing siltation processes and dynamics in Mediterranean mountain reservoirs.

Ship based offshore CCS activities need to comply with international and national regulatory frameworks for carbon dioxide storage in sub-seabed geological formations. The 1996 London Protocol is an example of international framework, while the Marine Pollution Prevention Law covers the London Protocol obligations in Japan. They both set a series of guidelines to assess potential impacts to the surrounding marine environment in case of leakage from geological formations. Although both these guidelines are corresponding, there are some differences in specifications including purity of the CO 2 stream and monitoring requirements for the operators.

Modelling, simulation and visualisation of forest cover is a very important aim for the sylviculture. Now the development of different techniques in tree and forest modelling, in GIS is sufficient to develop specific software used in forest simulation. Now, having a better way to represent and to interact with large models like forests are topics of high interest. After a short presentation of the project SILVES, we resent in this paper the design and implementation of a visualisation program that involves two main features. It is based on the central data model, in order to display in real time the modifications caused by the modeler. Furthermore, it benefits from the different immersive environments which give the user a much more accurate insight of the model than a regular computer screen. Then, we focus on the difficulties that come in the way of performance.

The study presents a method to evaluate the response of forest ecosystems to increased biomass extraction based on the integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE. It evaluates the effects of residue removal, intensification of thinnings and a shorter rotation period on a forest site in Southern Sweden. The evaluation includes multiple ecosystem indicators for productivity, carbon storage, wood production, water use and water quality. Such integrated assessments can contribute to identify negative or positive impacts affecting ecosystem services provided by forests. Results show that increased biomass extraction reduces the carbon stored in the forests, but at the same time reduces the loss of nitrogen and carbon through leaching. Within one rotation, residue removal affects the carbon stock in the soil, but it does not affect forest productivity and therefore tree carbon stock. Contrarily, the intensification of thinnings and shorter rotation periods reduce carbon stored in trees. In all cases, the amount of wood available for products increases, but the additional harvest from increased thinnings and earlier clear cutting does not compensate for the loss of carbon in trees. A positive consequence of removing the decomposing material from the site is the reduced amount of nutrients lost with runoff. Both leached nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon decrease with intensification. In addition, a positive effect of increased thinnings and a shorter rotation period is a reduced evapotranspiration, i.e. reduced water use. The effect on acidification differed depending on the time frame considered and the applied management scenario, due to different dominating processes regulating acidity. To avoid acidification, management intensification should include measures to prevent loss of base cations in the soil. Overall, under the studied conditions, the risk for negative effects seems to be smaller for residue extraction than for management changes including additional tree harvest.

The increasing urgency of global sustainability challenges has elevated the role of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as benchmarks for both academic research and policy development. Within the European Union, measuring how national research systems contribute to SDG-related knowledge is critical for guiding evidence-based policymaking and evaluating progress toward the 2030 Agenda. Since the adoption of the UN 2030 Agenda, research related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has expanded significantly, reflecting their central role in guiding both global and European science policy. Despite this growing attention, systematic comparative evidence on how EU27 countries contribute to SDG-related knowledge production remains limited. This study provides a bibliometric analysis of research related to the SDGs across EU27 countries between 2019 and 2023. Drawing on data from Elsevier's Scopus and SciVal platforms, we examine publication volume, relative share (RS), citation impact (FWCI), growth dynamics (CAGR), and thematic distributions. The dataset includes all document types associated with SDG1-SDG16. Germany, Italy, and France lead in absolute publication output, while smaller member states such as Cyprus, Malta, and Luxembourg display disproportionately high RS values. Health-related research (SDG3) dominates, followed by SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), whereas socially oriented goals (SDG2 and SDG5) remain underrepresented. Hierarchical cluster analysis, validated through silhouette and agglomeration tests, identifies three groups of countries: (1) high-output, high-impact Northern and Western leaders; (2) diversified performers with balanced portfolios; and (3) emerging contributors from Eastern and Southern Europe. Explanatory analyses link bibliometric outcomes to contextual variables, showing strong correlations with Horizon Europe funding per capita and international collaboration, and moderate associations with GDP per capita and GERD. Institutionallevel findings highlight the prominence of leading universities and research institutes, particularly in health sciences. The study introduces a robust cluster-based typology and a multidimensional framework that connects bibliometric performance with economic capacity, research investment, EU funding participation, and collaboration intensity. Policy recommendations are proposed to strengthen thematic balance, improve equitable participation in EU research programs, and foster international cooperation across the European Research Area.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation sector through technological innovation, environmental benefits, and sustainable energy integration. This manuscript provides a comprehensive overview of EVs, including definitions and classifications such as Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). It covers key components like battery packs, electric motors, power electronics, and charging systems. The manuscript also discusses advantages of EVs, including reduced emissions, higher energy efficiency, lower operating costs, and noise reduction, alongside challenges such as range limitations, charging infrastructure gaps, battery concerns, and upfront costs. Innovations such as wireless and ultra-fast charging, battery swapping, regenerative braking, bidirectional charging, and autonomous driving are explored. Common myths about EVs are addressed, including misconceptions about environmental impact, battery lifespan, and safety. Safety considerations, including high-voltage systems, functional system reliability, battery hazards, and maintenance protocols, are analyzed in detail. Finally, market trends, government incentives, and global adoption patterns are examined to highlight the future of EVs as a safe, efficient, and sustainable transportation solution for smart cities worldwide.

For any non-native English speaker aiming to study, work, or migrate abroad, proving proficiency in English is a critical step. Two titans dominate this landscape: the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) and the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL). While both assess reading, writing, listening, and speaking, their approachesparticularly in the writing section-differ significantly. Choosing between them isn't just about which test is "easier"; it's about understanding which format plays to your strengths. The essay components are often the most daunting, and success hinges on mastering their unique demands. This article provides a detailed comparison of the IELTS and TOEFL essays, breaking down their structure, scoring, style, and strategy to help you make an informed decision.

While on a world-wide scale Hungary is a key greenhouse gas emitter neither on an absolute nor on a per capita basis, Hungary recognizes the significance of limiting its greenhouse gas emissions. This paper is based on the Hungarian contribution to a two-year, ten-country research effort, funded by UNEP, aimed at developing a state-of-the-art methodology for the understanding of the economics of greenhouse gas abatement. This paper concentrates on the challenges of the implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation measures. While Hungary has an important cost-effective potential for reducing the emission of carbon dioxide by improving energy efficiency, the implementation of this mitigation strategy is a complex and challenging task. The implementation and financing of energy efficiency measures require the concerted targeting of close to 4 million households, and a wide variety of actors, including banks, the industry, government, international and multilateral organisations, and NGOs. Thus, developing an implementation strategy requires a clear understanding of the existing structures, barriers, and experiences to date. This paper provides a strategic framework for the implementation of demand-side energy efficiency, and examines a case study, the tool of energy efficiency labelling and standards, within this framework.

The present study examined the efficacy of a reading instruction, Peer Assisted Learning Strategies (PALS), for Hispanic English Language Learners (ELL). Currently, the literature indicates that there is a surge in ELL students, most commonly Spanish-speaking ELL students, in the United States. This increase in ELL population created a need for academic support as many of these students are historically academically behind their non-ELL peers due to the negative impact of lack of exposure to the English language and cultural differences. The PALS program is a class-wide reading intervention where students engage in reading activities to promote reading skills; and limited studies have shown PALS to be effective with ELL students. In this study, the PALS group was made of 15 2 nd grade ELL students, which received Partner reading, while the control group consisted of 14 2 nd grade regular education students, who received regular class wide reading instruction. Based on pre and post CBM data, results did not show a significant difference in reading fluency between the PALS group and the control group. However, results did indicate a significant reading improvement in pre-post CBM scores for those in the PALS condition, but not in the control condition. For participants in the control condition, a ceiling effect might have been a factor; i.e., because they scored higher on the pretest than participants in the PALS condition, there was no room for growth. Given these results, in the current study, PALS efficacy for improving Spanish ELL students' reading fluency was inconclusive. The implication of the results and the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed.

A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition.

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GW el , 405 GW el or even 1,000 GW el could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13% to 15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWh el in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO 2 -equivalents/kWh el ) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130 to 900 CO 2 -eq./kWh el ), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO 2eq./kWh el in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.

Background: Admittance catheter-derived pressure–volume (PV) analysis offers the ability to assess dynamic changes in ventricular performance. The present study was designed to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of biventricular PV analysis by comparing admittance catheter-derived measurements of left (LV) and right ventricular (RV) volumes with data obtained from simultaneous contrast-enhanced cardiac multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) before, during, and after transient pressure overload (TPO) in swine. Load-independent parameters of LV and RV systolic function were also assessed to determine whether each ventricle exhibits a similar susceptibility to mechanical stretch-induced myocardial stunning. Methods: Closed-chest propofol-anesthetized swine (n = 5) were instrumented with a Swan-Ganz catheter and admittance catheters in the LV and RV for continuous biventricular PV analysis (ADV500; Transonic Scisense, Inc., London, ON, Canada). Cardiac MDCT with iodinated contrast (1 ml/kg at 4 ml/s) was performed before, during, and 30 min after TPO elicited by a 1 h intravenous infusion of phenylephrine (PE; 300 µg/min). Right and left ventricular end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and stroke volume were calculated simultaneously with each modality. Load-independent systolic function was derived from biventricular PV loops collected during inferior vena cava occlusion at baseline and 30 min after PE. Results: PE elicited a significant rise in LV pressure and RV pressure that normalized 30 min after the end of the infusion period. Biventricular PV analysis demonstrated a significant increase in LV and RV end-diastolic volume and end-systolic volume during PE that normalized in the RV, but not LV, 30 min after cessation of PE. These changes were confirmed by contrast-enhanced cardiac MDCT-derived measurement of ventricular volumes, with no significant differences between PV and MDCT at any timepoint. Persistent LV dilatation after PE was accompanied by a reduction in load-dependent (dP/dtmax) and load-independent (ESPVR and PRSW) parameters of LV systolic function, reflecting stretch-induced stunning following a ~6-fold rise in LV end-diastolic pressure during PE. This was not observed in the RV, as load-dependent and load-independent parameters of RV systolic function were preserved following PE-induced TPO. Conclusions: Biventricular PV analysis is feasible in swine and provides accurate continuous measurement of ventricular volumes compared with intermittent contrast-enhanced cardiac MDCT. Employing this approach during transient PE infusion demonstrated persistent chamber dilatation and systolic dysfunction in the LV, but not RV, consistent with stretch-induced stunning caused by an acute elevation in preload. The absence of stretch-induced stunning in the RV may be linked to inherent differences in compliance relative to the LV, as well as a diminished pressor response to PE in the pulmonary vs. systemic circulation. The data included in this manuscript were originally shared with the scientific community via two peer-reviewed abstracts referenced within.

Central to global agreement on carbon emissions are strategic interactions amongst regions over carbon tax implementation and the benefits to be shared. These are reexamined in this paper, in which benefits from mitigation stem from a meta-analysis that links carbon concentration with region-specific measures of economic welfare. Implementation costs are then drawn from a highly disaggregated model of global economic performance. Multiplayer games are then constructed, the results from which are sensitive to embodied temperature scenarios and discount rates but robustly reveal that the US and China would be net gainers from unilateral implementation in net present value terms. The dominant strategy for all other countries is to free ride. Net gains to the three large economies are bolstered by universal adoption, which could be induced by affordable side payments. Yet the revealed downside is that net gains to all regions are negative for at least two decades, rendering commitment to abatement politically difficult.

This paper investigates assessor decision-making when using and applying a marking guide for a note-taking task in a specific purpose English language listening test. In contexts where note-taking items are used, a marking guide is intended to stipulate what kind of response should be accepted as evidence of the ability under test. However, there remains some scope for assessors to apply their own interpretations of the construct in judging responses that fall outside the information provided in a marking guide. From a content analysis of data collected in a stimulated recall group discussion, a taxonomy of the types of decisions made by assessors is derived and the bases on which assessors make such decisions are discussed. The present study is therefore a departure point for further investigations into how assessor decision-making processes while marking open-ended items might be improved.

Having outlined a theory of heterogeneous social construction, this article describes the scientific construction of climate change as a global-scale environmental problem caused by the universal physical properties of greenhouse gases. Critics have noted that this reductionist formulation serves a variety of political purposes, but instrumental and interest-based critiques of the use of scientific knowledge tend to ignore the ways in which a politics gets built into science at the upstream end. By retracing the history of climate modeling and of several scientific controversies, I unmask the tacit social and epistemic commitments implied by its specific practices. The specific scientific framing of global climate change has reinforced and been reinforced by the technocratic inclinations of global climate management. The social organization of climate change science and its articulation with the political process raise important questions about trust, uncertainty, and expertise. The article concludes with a discussion of the political brittleness of this dominant science-led and global-scale formulation of the climate change problem and the need for a more reflexive politics of climate change and of scientific knowledge based on active trust.

The paper considers the transition of an economy from non-renewable to renewable energy. The Hotelling theorem suggests to extract a non-renewable resource in an optimal way such that the resource tends to be depleted when optimally extracted. Yet, it might not be reasonable to deplete non-renewable energy sources that create externalities such as CO 2 emissions and global warming. The paper sets up a canonical growth model with damages in the household's welfare function and two energy sources -non-renewable and renewable energy. To produce renewable energy a capital stock must be built up. We study when a transition to renewable energy can take place and whether it takes place before non-renewable energy is exhausted. A socially optimal solution is considered that takes into account the negative externality from the non-renewable energy. We also study how the optimal solution can be mimicked in a market economy by policies using subsidies and tax rates. To solve the model version where preferences show a multiplicative effect of consumption and damages from CO 2 emission, we use dynamic programming. For a simplified version, with additive arguments in preferences, we use Nonlinear Model Predictive Control to solve the model and study the transition to renewable energy.

A few years ago, the 2-hydroxy-4´-methoxy dibenzoylmethane (DBM11) molecule was synthesized and studied as a replacement for avobenzone (AVB, butyl methoxydibenzoylmethane) because of the latter's instability under UVA.
These studies, conducted in absolute ethanol with an estimated UV
irradiance of 8,56 mW/cm2, demonstrated almost zero decomposition of DBM11.
Thus, it is a promising candidate for use as a UVA chemical filter. However,
further studies must be conducted to verify its photostability once formulated into
an emulsion and to establish its toxicological profile. The first aim of this work
was to scale up the synthesis of DBM11 to allow its formulation into an emulsion,
which is required for the evaluation of its photostability under standardized UV
irradiation conditions (close to ISO 24443), as required for sunscreen testing
in the cosmetic industry. Additionally, in vitro phototoxicity assessments were
conducted, with slight modifications to improve reproducibility, in accordance
with OECD guidelines. These results demonstrate that DBM11 exhibits promising
photostability and a favourable toxicological profile, making it a potential
candidate for use as a UVA filter.

Social learning, defined as a convergence in the perspectives of stakeholders on a complex (environmental) problem and its possible solutions, is considered an important mechanism in developing integrated solutions requiring broad societal support and concerted action. Quantitative environmental models can support social learning of stakeholders by providing a platform for communication and integration and by allowing exploration of the consequences of different choices. However, in many integrated assessment projects that combine quantitative modelling with stakeholder participation, the models fail to play a significant supporting role in social learning. Two major reasons for this failure are: (1) stakeholder perspectives are inadequately integrated into the model, and (2) insufficient iterations are made between model outcomes and stakeholder choices. In recent years, a number of software tools have become available that may help to remedy these shortcomings. For instance, with ...

This research aims to find a theoretical concept of assessment for students during the Covid-19 pandemic as a follow-up step for assessment activities in obtaining the validity of assessment results. The research method used is qualitative research methods and conducted on ten Public Elementary School Principals with at least 5 years of teaching experience. The purposive sampling method was used to determine the informants. Here focuses on Analyzing the assessment process and the student learning outcomes process through online learning process during the Covid-19 pandemic. Data collection techniques, in this study, are observation, interviews, and documentation. To obtain data validity, this study uses triangulation of data collection techniques. The result of this study is an integrated assessment theory concept towards the students during the Covid-19 pandemic. The impact of this study provides a new breakthrough, because it provides a different perspective of assessment by integrating 3 perspectives in assessing student academic performance as well as collaborating their own function, namely the teacher's as an assessor of student cognitive competence, the student's as assessors of their own affective competence (self assessment), and the parents' as assessors of students' psychomotor competencies. The further research can be carried out when the Covid-19 pandemic has ended so that it can provide a different view of the effectiveness of using integrated assessment as an assessment method which can be used sustainably in the future.

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants can play a major role in the future South African electricity mix. Today the Independent Power Producer (IPP) Procurement Programme aims to facilitate renewable energy projects to access the South African energy market. In spite of this incentive programme, the future role of CSP plants in South Africa has yet to be defined. Using hourly irradiance data, we present a new method to calculate the expected yield of different parabolic trough plant configurations at a site in each of Gauteng and the Northern Cape, South Africa. We also provide cost estimates of the main plant components and an economic assessment that can be used to demonstrate the feasibility of solar thermal power projects at different sites. We show that the technical configurations, as well as the resulting cost of electricity, are heavily dependent on the location of the plant and how the electricity so generated satisfies demand. Today, levelised electricity costs for a CSP pl...

Many countries in the world investigate the role of concentrated solar power for the future electricity generation. The technology bears many advantages in comparison with other renewable energy sources, as it can be combined with thermal energy storage and can thus be used to supply peak electricity and provide a higher flexibility and dispatchability. Available concepts differ in terms of energy yield, degree of dispatchability and levelized cost of electricity generation. Moreover, the possible contribution of CSP plants to grid security remains often unclear. For the example of South Africa, a booming economy with ambitious climate protection targets, we demonstrate the applicability of an innovative method to analyse the future role of concentrated solar power with and without storage. Based on a calculation of energy yield and energy provision characteristics and a probabilistic reliability method we show that storage capacity substantially affects firm capacity. Results show that depending on the additional CSP capacity and storage configuration which is added to the energy system, capacity credits range from 22% to 34% for systems without storage, 47% to 69% for CSP plants with limited storage and 84% to 93% for configurations with an extended storage configuration. Using an integrated energy system optimization model, we identify that CSP with appropriate storage size is a suitable option to cost efficiently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In an ambitious GHG mitigation scenario for South Africa, CSP would be one of the most important mitigation measures, providing about one quarter of the total electricity in future. The results also show that it is crucial to consider the share of renewable firm capacity through the future procurement of CSP capacity with appropriate storage size in future energy planning.

Measuring glacier elevation change is crucial information for estimating glacier mass balance, calibrating mass balance and climate models, and assessing the impact of global warming. We examined the potentiality of clinometry to quantify glacier elevation changes. This technique allows calculating the elevation of the points that lie on the margins of the shadows cast by the local topography on monoscopic optical images. Mapping the shadow position across different images permits quantifying surface elevation changes. We applied clinometry to Sentinel-2 images of the Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland) and we measured a glacier thinning of -1.9 ± 1.7 ma -1 between 2017 and 2021, in agreement with previous observations.

This paper reviews methods that have been used to evaluate global climate simulations and to downscale global climate scenarios for the assessment of climate impacts on hydrologic systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. The approach described has been developed to facilitate integrated assessment research in support of regional resource management. Global climate model scenarios are evaluated and selected based on historic 20th century simulations. A statistical downscaling method is then applied to produce a regional data set. To facilitate the use of climate projections in hydrologic assessment, additional statistical mapping may be applied to generate synthetic station time series. Finally, results are presented from a regional climate model that indicate important differences in the regional climate response from what is captured by global models and statistical downscaling. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Uncertainty is a pervasive characteristic of all research addressed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) which is at the core of this Special Issue. The role of science in better coping with uncertainty is twofold. First, to describe uncertainties as comprehensively and well as possible, both quantitatively and qualitatively; second, to develop methods that can lead to improved decision-making under uncertainty. Here increasingly the concept of "optimal" is replaced by one of "robust" decisions, i.e. decisions that make sense vis à vis multiple uncertainties. This paper illustrates selective examples from IIASA research that contribute to the twin objectives of a better description of uncertainty and improved decision-making under uncertainty, drawing from research in the fields of technology dynamics, climate change policy, as well as catastrophic risk management and portfolio analysis. The conclusions emphasize the need for a basic research strategy aimed at elucidating uncertainties in parameters as well as in alternative model representations, and in developing improved models for robust decision-making. Models of robust decision making emphasize risk hedging spatially and through a portfolio of policies and technology options.

This paper provides the background and the context for the analyses presented in the seven papers of this Special Issue on Integrated Assessment of Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and their Mitigation. First, the main topic and content of the Special Issue is given, followed by an overall overview. Second, detailed overviews and summaries of the seven papers are given. The specific analytical and methodological features and findings of each paper are highlighted and the linkages between the various papers presented in the Special Issue are provided.

A real-life application of a new approach to integrated assessment and screening of water quality improvement strategies in large river basins is presented. The approach is based on the integration of diverse data and mathematical models as well as on the application of interactive visualization of the Pareto frontier. The case study water quality planning in the Oka River, the Volga River basin, is presented within the framework of a DSS for screening water quality planning strategies. The Decision Support System (DSS) was commissioned by the Russian Federal Ministry for Natural Resources within the Federal programme ''Revival of the Volga River''.

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Cear a a and Piauı ´, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios that show potential developments of the agricultural and water resources situation as well as the internal migration until the year 2025. In these states, regional development is negatively influenced by the high seasonality of rainfall and El-Niñ no-related drought years. Two reference scenarios, ''Coastal Boom and Cash Crops'' and ''Decentralisation -Integrated Rural Development,'' were developed. First, story lines were created and the development of the driving forces was quantified. Then, an integrated model, which includes modules for simulating water availability, water demand, and agricultural production and income, was applied to compute the temporal development of relevant system indicators in each of the 332 municipalities of Cear a a and Piauı ´. These indicators encompass the fraction of the irrigation water demand than can be satisfied, the volume of water which is stored in the reservoirs at the beginning of the dry season, agricultural productivity and production as well as the internal migration among scenario regions. In addition, the impact of certain policy measures was assessed in the context of both reference scenarios. Reference and intervention scenarios were derived by an interdisciplinary group of scientists and were discussed and refined during policy workshops with planning agencies of Cear a a.

Amongst the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), ensuring energy access in developing countries while reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases is critical. To achieve such goals, international cooperation combined with investments in research, technology, infrastructures and capacity building are paramount. The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 on access to affordable and clean energy, includes both targets at the domestic and international stages of energy policy. However, trade-offs are emerging in the monitoring phase of SDG7 and its targets, signalling the need for stronger coherence at all stages. Here, we assess to what extent policy coherence exists, and is or is not maintained, considering internal and external energy policy in Europe. We find that a higher level of coherence exists in internal than external energy policy. This result questions the overall positive contribution and commitment of European countries when it comes to facilitating energy access in devel...

Genetically modified food is able to oppose the world's hunger and preserve the environment, even if the patents in this matter are symptomatic of several doubts. And also, transgenic consumption causes problems and skepticism among consumers in several European countries, but above all in Italy, where there is a strong opposition over recent years. So, the present study conducted a research to study the consumption of genetically modified food products by Italian young generation. This research presented the following purposes: firstly, to analyze genetically modified products' consumption among a particular category of consumers; secondly, to implement a quantitative model to understand behaviour about this particular kind of consumption and identify the factors that determine their purchase. The proposed model shows that transgenic consumption is especially linked to knowledge and impact on environment and mankind's health.

Water is critical to the lives and livelihoods of rural communities in developing countries; however, access to water can be inequitable within communities. This paper uses a generalized integrated assessment approach to explore the determinants of water access by marginalized farmers in two villages in coastal Bangladesh, before and after the setup of local water institutions. The study was part of a broader project aimed at promoting socially inclusive agricultural intensification. An integrative framework was developed in this study to capture and link the diverse range of factors that influence the distribution of water, including the often-overlooked role of social dynamics and governance arrangements. While interventions around improving water resource infrastructure can be critical for freshwater availability, the case studies show that a breakdown of asymmetric power structures may also be needed for water access to all individuals, especially marginalized groups. Establishi...

It is not enough to simply designate a protected area. According to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11, these sites should be governed and managed effectively and equitably. Equitable (i.e., fair and inclusive) conservation is vital to ensuring effective protection of natural resources while maintaining human well-being. Yet, equity tends to be overlooked in protected area assessments. Three marine protected areas (MPAs) in Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland were selected to assess equitable governance and management in the Irish Sea. This is one of the first studies to assess equity across multiple stakeholder groups in MPAs. The Site-level Assessment for Governance and Equity (SAGE) toolkit, developed by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) to address the gap in equity assessments, was used to evaluate equitable governance and management in these MPAs. Based on the three dimensions of equity (recognition, distribution, and procedure), SAGE contains Likert-scale questions to assess good governance by evaluating how different stakeholder groups perceive their protected area's management and how included they feel in decision-making. Quantitative data from SAGE is complemented by qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with stakeholders to understand the impact MPA management has on local communities and MPA users. The results of this study reveal a lack of communication between MPA authorities and local stakeholders. They highlight the need for co-management in the form of inclusive partnerships as an alternative to the current top-down governance approach favoed in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

In this study, the number of vehicles, fuel consumption, and emissions was estimated in two scenarios by using the logistic model until 2050. The fuel consumption estimations were studied in three groups as diesel, LPG, and gasoline. Also, diesel vehicles were inspected in three groups as passenger cars, light-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles. The annual mileage values of the vehicles and the average fuel consumption per 100 km have been calculated by considering similar studies and statistics. Future estimates of the number of vehicles have been made considering that the percentage of diesel vehicles will decrease in the next few years due to the prohibition of diesel vehicles in specific regions and the increasing demand for electric cars and hybrid vehicles. Emission estimates were made by considering the European Emission Standart and future expectations of Euro norms. The total fuel consumption was estimated as 10347 million liters (ML) gasoline, 50978 ML diesel, 12767 ML LPG, and...

The sustainability of agriculture is questioned due to major negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. To improve the state of agriculture, various management changes have been proposed. Different tools, with varying characteristics, sustainability framing and indicators, have been used to evaluate the impact of these changes on sustainability. Here, we review 119 tools for farm sustainability assessment and compare their use, sustainability dimensions, themes and types of indicators used for biodiversity conservation, farm viability and gender equity. Our main findings are that (1) tools could be classified into five groups that differ in stakeholder participation and model used for calculating sustainability, (2) seven different sustainability framings are used and (3) only two out of 29 indicators screened address impacts of farming system while the others address drivers, pressures or states of the system. The tools were grouped in "Long-term monitoring of farm activities" (11%), "Ex-ante assessment of sustainability with bioeconomic models" (9%), "Surveyand indicator-based assessment of tools" (41%), "Consultation-based assessment" (25%) and "Active engagement of stakeholder-based assessment" (14%). The "classical view of sustainability", with the economic, social and environmental pillars, was used in 61% of the papers. Based on these findings, we suggest (1) development of temporal dynamic assessment of farm sustainability with active involvement of stakeholders in the framing of sustainability and design of indicators to achieve reliable and relevant assessment outcomes. We recommend (2) adoption of more complex sustainability framings dealing with emerging system properties, namely resilience, viability and stability. In these, (3) governance/institutional dimensions should be emphasised, and social themes targeting farmers' characteristics should be included. Finally, (4) use of impact indicators in farm sustainability assessments is critical, and they should be designed to contribute to scientifically rigorous and relevant assessments of farming system sustainability.

Interactive tools developed within the RegIS project for assessing the impacts of flooding provide information to support flood management policies and analyse the performance of possible adaptation activities to climate change. This paper describes the methodologies used in the development of these tools including tidal and fluvial flooding processes with different levels of climate pressures, represented by changes in sea level and peak river flows. Potential impacts of climate change for East Anglia and North West England are explored to the 2050s using four socio-economic scenarios to represent plausible futures. This includes changes in urban land use as well as adaptive responses to flooding comprising dike upgrade and realignment options. The results indicate that future climate will increase flood risk in both regions. East Anglia is more vulnerable to climate change than North West England at the present level of protection, especially in the extensive coastal lowlands of the Fens and Broads because of the combined effects of sea-level rise and increased fluvial flows. Although the present adaptive policy of upgrading defences in East Anglia will reduce the impacts of flooding, this policy is not effective in the case of the more extreme climate change scenarios by 2050s. In this case, more extensive adaptation would be required.

Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Yet nations have to date taken minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to present new projections and the impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results will those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if there are not major climate-change policies. It suggests that it will be extremely difficult to achieve the 2°C target of international agreements even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.

The Agenda 2030 of sustainable development introduced in 2015 by the United Nations is a call for action to address the major challenges the world faces [1]. To tackle these challenges, the Agenda defines the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which have been conceived with respect to five pillars (planet, people, prosperity, peace and partnership), thus creating synergies and trade-offs among the Goals. The Agenda also addresses the need for more targeted policy implementations, totaling 169 targets across the Goals. Moreover, indicators have been defined to measure progresses in each target, and so, Goal.

Scaling methods in regional integrated assessments are often adopted as givens, when in fact there are a range of methods that each have their strengths and weaknesses. Methods such as a site within a polygon, spatially uniform grids, grids with relational data on polygons, interpolation and stochastic spatial models are reviewed for crop-climate modeling of climate change impacts developed in the European Union's Clivara project. A similar suite of methods for downscaling from global climate models to local conditions exists, and is reviewed. Up-and down-scaling issues relate to availability of data, the level of technical expertise in the project team, validation, uncertainty and risk, stakeholder participation, and modeling of actor-agents. Given the many aims of integrated assessments, no one approach is best.

A robust quantitative typology based on a nationwide survey was realized. • Four key pathways regarding MSM in China's dairy farming were achieved. • Key potential influencing factors of farmer's decision-making were identified. • The pathways benefit higher scale modelling in sustainability & policy assessment. • Reference values for decision-making of other developing countries were provided.

Samples of sediment and biota were collected from sites in the lower Fox River and southern Green Bay to determine existing or potential impacts of sediment-associated contaminants on different ecosystem components of this Great Lakes area of concern. Evaluation of benthos revealed a relatively depauperate community, particularly at the lower Fox River sites. Sediment pore water and bulk sediments from several lower Fox River sites were toxic to a number of test species including Pimephales promelas, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Hexagenia limbata. Selenastrum capricornutum, and Photobacterium phosphorum. An important component of the observed toxicity appeared to be due to ammonia. Evaluation of three bullhead (Zctalurus) species from the lower Fox River revealed an absence of preneoplastic or neoplastic liver lesions, and the Salmonella typhimurium bioassay indicated relatively little mutagenicity in sediment extracts. Apparent adverse reproductive effects were noted in two species of birds nesting along the lower Fox River and on a confined disposal facility for sediments near the mouth of the river, and there were measurable concentrations of potentially toxic 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-pdioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and planar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) both in the birds and in sediments from several of the study sites. Based on toxic equivalency factors and the results of an in vitro bioassay with H4IIE rat hepatoma cells, it appeared that the majority of potential toxicity of the PCB/PCDF/PCDD mixture in biota from the lower Fox River/Green Bay system was due to the planar PCBs. The results of these studies are discussed in terms of an integrated assessment focused on providing data for remedial action planning. o 1992 Academic PES, hc.

Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V.

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The global development has now come to a critical state where humanity act as a new geological force and it is obvious that there are numerous of environmental problems which arise from the present geosphere-biosphere-anthroposphere interactions which urgently need to be addressed. This paper argues that systems analysis and modelling of environmental systems is one necessary part in successful governing of societies towards sustainability. In the 1960th many observations and data made it evident that the environment in most countries was in a bad state. To get a holistic view of the complex problems and to clarify the relationships of structure and function, systems thinking was applied e.g. modelling, cybernetics, systems analysis, life cycle assessment and energy and material flow analysis. Such tools used collectively, conceptualized as 'integrated assessment', can help to communicate fundamental knowledge, and to support decision-making when identifying, developing and ...

Water management issues critical to the Volta Basin are discussed in this paper. An introduction to the Volta Basin and its hydrological characteristics provides the necessary background. Hydropower production for urban areas and irrigation development in rural areas compete for water resources. The paper introduces the GLOWA Volta project and presents details highlighting the project's integrative approach. In order to address water-policy issues, the GLOWA Volta Project seeks to develop a scientifically sound Decision Support System. The main premise of the GLOWA Volta investigation is that changes in landuse may have important, yet unknown, effects on the hydrological cycle of the basin. To predict future water availability, landuse change, driven by physical and social factors, needs to be predicted as well. In order to illustrate the different ways in which landuse affects the movement of water over the surface and through the atmosphere, three examples are given. The first example treats the indirect and direct effects of changes in soil moisture on the atmospheric circulation. In the second example, the high sensitivity of surface water availability with respect to rainfall is determined. The final example shows the increase in dam building activity in the basin which has a direct but rather limited impact on availability of water resources downstream.