Demand Management

The use of water for agricultural production in water scarcity regions requires innovative and sustainable research, and an appropriate transfer of technologies. This paper discusses some of these aspects, mainly relative to on-farm irrigation management including the use of treated wastewater and saline waters. First, the paper proposes some concepts relative to water scarcity, concerning aridity, drought, deserti®cation and water shortage, as well as policies to cope with these water stressed regimes. Conceptual approaches on irrigation performances, water use and water savings are reviewed in a wide perspective. This is followed by a discussion of supply management to cope with water scarcity, giving particular attention to the use of wastewater and low-quality waters, including the respective impacts on health and the environment as water scarcity is requiring that waters of inferior quality be increasingly used for irrigation. The paper then focuses on demand management, starting with aspects relating to the improvement of irrigation methods and the respective performances, mainly the distribution uniformity (DU) as a fundamental tool to reduce the demand for water at the farm level, and to control the negative environmental impacts of over-irrigation, including salt stressed areas. Discussions are supported by recent research results. The suitability of irrigation methods for using treated wastewaters and saline waters is analysed. Supplemental irrigation (SI) and de®cit irrigation strategies are also discussed, including limitations on the applicability of related practices. The paper also identi®es the need to adopt emerging technologies for water management as well as to develop appropriate methodologies for the analysis of social, economic, and environmental bene®ts of improved irrigation management. #

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 2, May 1993 ... A Generalized Knowledge-Based Short-Term Load-Forecasting Technique ... Abstract - A newly-developed algorithm for short-term load forecasting is generalized. The algorithm combines features ...

Deployment of PHEV will initiate an integration of transportation and power systems. Intuitively, the PHEVs will constitute an additional demand to the electricity grid, potentially violating converter or line capacities when recharging. Smart management schemes can alleviate possible congestions in power systems, intelligently distributing available energy. As PHEV are inherently independent entities, an agent based approach is expedient. Nonlinear pricing will be adapted to model and manage recharging behavior of large numbers of autonomous PHEV agents connecting in one urban area modelled as an energy hub. The scheme will incorporate price dependability. An aggregation entity, with no private information about its customers, will manage the PHEV agents whose individual parameters will be based on technical constraints and individual objectives. Analysis of the management scheme will give implications for PHEV modelling and integration schemes as well as tentative ideas of possible repercussions on power systems.

As travelers are becoming more price sensitive, less brand loyal and more sophisticated, Customer Relationship Management (CRM) becomes a strategic necessity for attracting and increasing guests' patronage. Although CRM in hospitality has overstated the importance of ICT, it is now widely recognised that successful CRM implementation should effectively combine and align ICT functionality with business operations. Given the lack of a widely accepted framework for CRM implementation, this paper proposed a model for managing and integrating ICT capabilities into CRM strategies and business processes. The model argues that successful CRM implementation requires the management and alignment of three managerial processes: ICT, relationship (internal and external) and knowledge management. The model is tested by gathering data from Greek hotels, while findings provide useful practical implications and suggestions for future research. r (M. Sigala). transparency and the new e-business models (e.g. online auctions) enhance tourists' purchasing power, who are becoming more price sensitive, less brand loyal, more sophisticated and experience seekers (Gilmore and . The hotel industry is also experiencing increased globalisation, competition, higher customer turnover, growing customer acquisition costs and rising customer expectations, meaning that hotels' performance and competitiveness is significantly dependent on their ability to satisfy customers efficiently and effectively (e.g. Olsen and Connolly, 2000; Gilmore and Pine, 1997). To enhance profitability and guest loyalty, hotels must nowadays focus on implementing Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategies that aim to seek, gather and store the right information, validate and share it throughout the entire organisation and then use it throughout all organisational levels for creating personalised, unique guests' experiences .

In certain circles, demand management is seen as one and the same thing as economic pricing. This thinking is stimulated by the Dublin principle that water should be considered an economic good. But is this reasoning correct? Is economic pricing an adequate means to reach more desirable levels of demand? There is considerable misunderstanding about what the concept of water as an economic good implies. In this paper it is argued that water pricing should primarily serve the purpose of financial sustainability through cost recovery. Moreover, in water pricing, adequate attention should be given to equity considerations through, for example, increasing block tariffs. Instead of economic pricing there is a need for defining a reasonable price, which provides full cost recovery but which safeguards ecological requirements and access to safe water for the poor. Giving a reasonable price to water has the additional benefit that it sends out a clear signal to the users that water should be used wisely, but the prime target of water pricing remains cost recovery. A major argument of neoclassical economists is that economic pricing of water will facilitate the re-allocation of water from sectors with lower added value (such as agriculture) to sectors with a higher added value (such as urban water use). However, the value of alternative uses of irrigation water is often grossly over-estimated. Adequate and effective regulations may suffice in order to achieve the optimal allocation of water resources.

This paper provides an overview, using extensive documentary material, of developments in U.K. macroeconomic policy in the last half-century. Rather than focusing on wellknown recent changes in policy arrangements (such as the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 or central bank independence in 1997), we instead take a longer perspective, which characterizes the favorable economic performance in the 1990s and 2000s as the culmination of an overhaul of macroeconomic policy since the late 1970s. We stress that policymaking in recent decades has discarded various misconceptions about the macroeconomy and the monetary transmission mechanism that officials held in earlier periods. The misconceptions included: an underestimation of the importance of monetary policy in demand management until 1970; a failure to distinguish real and nominal interest rates until the late 1960s; the deployment until the mid-1980s of ineffective monetary control devices that did not alter the monetary base; and the adherence by policymakers in the 1960s and 1970s to nonmonetary views of the inflation process. We also consider developments in fiscal policy in light of changes in the doctrines underlying U.K. macroeconomic decisions.

An order fulfillment process (OFP) starts with receiving orders from customers and ends with delivering the finished goods. The order fulfillment process is complex because it is composed of several activities, executed by different functional entities, and heavily interdependent among the tasks, resources, and agents involved in the process. A supply chain network (SCN) is a network of autonomous or semi-autonomous business entities involved, through upstream and downstream links, in the different processes and activities that produce goods or services to customers. As manufacturing practice shifts toward the outsourcing paradigm, the OFP is more likely to be executed throughout SCNs. It becomes imperative to integrate the OFP into SCNs to improve the OFP. Generalizing from the variety and complexity of SCNs, this study identifies several main types of SCN structures and addresses OFP issues based on them.

£24.99, 304 pages. 'Talent Management' (TM) has recently attracted much attention from academics and practitioners alike. Many books, articles and surveys have been published, and consulting firms attracted by its market potential (Iles, 2007, 2008). The literature reveals a lack of clarity regarding the definition and scope of TM; different companies and researchers seem to have their own conceptions and understandings of it, ranging from 'inclusive' to 'exclusive' (CIPD, 2007). This book by Cappelli, a leading American researcher on employment relations, is very timely in addressing many issues in TM. It follows earlier work on careers, the breakdown of lifetime employment and the move towards more market-driven employment relationships, and borrows concepts from economics, focussing on human capital management, and operational research, focussing on managing supply chains. An interesting feature of the book is that, unlike many American books, it takes a more global perspective; in particular it benefits from a study of TM approaches in Singapore (both companies and government) and India, especially IT companies. A brief international comparison focuses mainly on the UK and Singapore; another brief chapter appendix looks at development models from abroad, focussing on Singapore and India. This 'talent on demand' approach usefully complements those that emphasize the supply of talent (probably most trainers and the human resource development [HRD] community generally). TM is 'the process through which employers anticipate and meet their needs for human capital' (p. 1), similar to supply chain management. Failures include mismatches between supply and demand, such as having too many employees ('inventory') leading to lay-offs, restructuring or turnover because of perceptions of lack of career opportunities, or too few, leading to shortages; both undershooting or overshooting carry costs, and failures in managing this balance have led employers to lurch from surpluses to shortages. Most employers either do nothing, making no attempt to anticipate needs and making no plans to address them, or use old complex legacy systems of forecasting and succession planning from the 1950s. Many ideas now often presented as novel and best practice TM, such as assessing potential, 360-degree feedback, assessment centres and coaching, come from this era. Cappelli is very critical of these as both inaccurate and expensive; no plans are really better than poor plans as mistakes (e.g. talent excess) are very costly, and employees' expectations may be built up, leading to retention problems if disappointed. Cappelli points out that TM is not an end in itself, nor is employee development; both are about business success (the book is firmly aimed at managers and employers; it has very little in the way of advice or help for individuals wishing to plan their careers). Rejecting both the bureaucratic planning model and the free agency model,

In this paper we propose distributed load management in smart grid infrastructures to control the power demand at peak hours, by means of dynamic pricing strategies. The distributed solution that we propose is based on a network congestion game, which can be demonstrated to converge in a finite number of steps to a pure Nash equilibrium solution. We take advantage of the remarkable property of congestion games, according to which they are equivalent to potential games. We define a potential function characterized by a meaningful physical interpretation, so that we obtain the favorable result that the optimal local solution of each selfish consumer is also the solution of a global objective. We evaluate this approach for managing both the demand and the grid load and we show that load control can be effectively achieved implementing a distributed solution, which significantly reduce the signaling burden over the network.

Demand management is the supply chain management process that balances the customers' requirements with the capabilities of the supply chain. 1 With the right process in place, management can match supply with demand proactively and execute the plan with minimal disruptions. The process is not limited to forecasting. It includes synchronizing supply and demand, increasing flexibility, and reducing variability. In this chapter, we describe the demand management process in detail to show how it can be implemented within a company and managed across firms in the supply chain. We examine the activities of each subprocess; evaluate the interfaces with corporate functions, processes and firms; and provide examples of successful implementation.

Water markets-either formal or informal-can be an efficient method for reallocating scarce water supplies. At the same time certain constraints can raise the transaction costs of trading water. This paper reviews the conditions necessary to establish successful water markets, identifies potential problems, and offers mitigating strategies. It also uses examples of several informal and formal water markets already in operation to illustrate these problems and the solutions to them. This neoclassical view that places the legal system at the center of contract enforcement in market economies has recently been criticized on the basis of evidence indicating that many contemporary exchange relations in the West and elsewhere are informal. The associated contract enforceability is not provided by the legal system but is based on reputation, general morality, and personal trust within social networks. Empirical evidence indicates the importance of two distinct systems of informal contract enforcement: the individualistic system of informal contracts enforcement prevalent in the West, under which the reputation and morality of the individuals are key, and the collectivist system of contract enforcement prevalent in most other societies, under which personal trust within the social network is critical. Cooter (1997) comes to a similar conclusion in reviewing the problem of contracting and establishing a rule of law that is consistent with a country's social norms. At least in the case of markets for irrigation water, both the formal neoclassical legal system and the informal system appear to be at work. The transfer of permanent water rights seems to require the certainty that is provided by a legally based approach in which water rights are recorded and can be defended in court. Water transfers among districts are likely to change the amount of water that is returned to streams and rivers, called the return flow, and a formal market may be required to prevent losses of return flows to downstream users. If, however, the sales are temporary, that is, for one season or less, and do not affect return flows, informal markets

e Abstract-Emergency Department (ED) crowding is a common problem in the United States and around the world. Process reengineering methods can be used to understand factors that contribute to crowding and provide tools to help alleviate crowding by improving service quality and patient flow. In this article, we describe the ED as a service business and then discuss specific methods to improve the ED quality and flow. Methods discussed include demand management, critical pathways, process-mapping, Emergency Severity Index triage, bedside registration, Lean and Six Sigma management methods, statistical forecasting, queuing systems, discrete event simulation modeling and balanced scorecards. The purpose of this review is to serve as a background for emergency physicians and managers interested in applying process reengineering methods to improving ED flow, reducing waiting times, and maximizing patient satisfaction. Finally, we present a position statement on behalf of the American Academy of Emergency Medicine addressing these issues.

, Mexico City's administration Some feel that it may be so inefficient that it is imposed a regulation banning each car from driving on a counterproductive. And Eskeland and Feyzioglu found specific day of the week. The regulation has been both evidence to support that view. Many households bought popular and controversial. Some feel that it is a an additional car to get additional "driving permits," and reasonable concession aimed to alleviate congestion and the amount of driving increased. Greater use of old cars pollution problems. Others feel it is both inefficient and and increased weekend driving may have contributed to unfair: inefficient in the way most rationing systems are the disappointing results of Mexico's one-day ban on inefficient, and unfair in that it is costly to some and driving: high welfare costs and none of the intended easily avoided or accommodated by others. benefits. This papera product of the Public Economics Division, Policy Research Departmentis part of a larger effort in the departmenttoanalyze environmental policiesandwas initiated in conjunctionwith operational supportto the Infrastructure Division, Country Department II, Latin America and the Caribbean. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "Pollution and the Choice of Policy Instruments in Developing Countries" (RPO 676-48). Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank,

The impacts of home-based telecommuting on travel behavior and personal vehicle emissions for participants in the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project are analyzed using the most advanced emissions modeling tools currently available. A comparison of participants' telecommuting day travel behavior with their before-telecommuting behavior shows a 27% reduction in the number of personal vehicle trips, a 77% decrease in vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), and 39% (and 4%) decreases in the number of cold (and hot) engine starts. These decreases in travel translate into emissions reductions of: 48% for total organic gases (TOG), 64% for carbon monoxide (CO), 69% for nitrogen oxide (NOx), and 78% for particulate matter (PM). Although the authors developed the methodology to investigate the emissions impacts of telecommuting, the analysis technique can be applied to any demand management or other transportation strategy where all of the necessary model inputs are available. An analysis of the number of personal vehicle trips and VMT partitioned into commute-related and non-commute-related purposes revealed that non-commute personal vehicle trips increased by 0.5 trips per person-day on average, whereas the non-commute VMT decreased by 5.3 miles. This important finding supports (for one indicator, the number of trips) the hypothesis that non-commute travel generation is a potential negative impact of telecommuting. This finding demonstrates the need to monitor these changes as telecommuting moves into the mainstream. In this study, however, the small increase in non-commute trips has a negligible impact compared to the overall travel and emissions savings.

This paper reviews the role customer-oriented demand-side management (DSM) can play in utility planning, discusses its current state of application, provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty in DSM programs, and presents ideas on how DSM programs can be implemented and monitored. This paper concludes that DSM provides a workable solution to some of the major problems confronting electric utilities today. DSM offers utility management many alternatives to improving customer satisfaction and maintaining good customer relations in the increasingly competitive area of electric supply, besides improving the utility's financial health. Decision analysis can provide a sound basis for selecting DSM alternatives in an environment of uncertainty. Finally, DSM provides an implementable mechanism to incorporate utility and customer requirements into integrated planning procedures; however, the programs require continuous monitoring to assure that desired load changes are achieved and maintained along with system reliability.

Climate change is one of the key global policy issues of our time. Transport is the sector from which it has been hardest to cut emissions and, to make substantial progress in the future, action will be required at all levels of government from EU to local. The governance of transport within this already challenging arena is further complicated by the existence of different structures for the management of transport modes and variations in formal governance structures across countries and regions.

In this paper, we examine national conditions that encourage the growth of a private regulatory environmental system to govern forests. Economic, institutional and social capital variables for 117 countries are used to examine factors determining forest certification under the Forest Stewardship Council and domestic competitor schemes. Although economic factors, such as forest exports and GDP, are important in explaining the likelihood that a country's forest management practices are certified, the regression results support the idea that economic institutions and the social context under which firms and forest landowners seek certification matters. The ability of citizens to influence the political process is also significant; in particular, the likelihood that firms and forest owners will seek to certify their forest practices is significantly reduced if women have little or no effective voice in civil society. D

Responses to demand uncertainty in the field of health-care services is a very timely research issue because of ongoing changes in demand patterns that are driven by demographics and recent changes in the delivery of these services. Despite its importance to researchers, the literature on demand management, capacity management and performance in health care has not been extensively reviewed. The present paper addresses this need by analyzing and synthesizing 463 articles published between 1986 and 2006. The key contributions of this work are the analysis and synthesis of research on demand management, capacity management and performance, along with an agenda to guide future research in this important area.

In New Zealand as elsewhere, there is an increasing interest in alleviating congestion on the road transport network to improve economic productivity, reduce pollution, and to use the transport network more effectively. Governments enact various policies to encourage car drivers to change their behaviour, but often find that the full impact is not reached. We propose that car drivers have constraints influencing their mode choice for the morning peak period trip (e.g. needing to transport children, needing a car for work during the day). A stated preference experiment conducted in the three largest New Zealand urban areas not only quantifies the likely impact of a wide range of policy tools (both 'sticks' discouraging car use, and 'carrots' encouraging alternative modes) for each area, but also identifies many significant constraints. q

Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the socalled ''reserve'' (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users' associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users' behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders; it can also be used to promote greater awareness and understanding of key issues and concerns among the public.

Domestic water use/demand is a complex function of socioeconomic characteristics, climatic factors and public water policies and strategies. This study therefore develops a model based on the multivariate econometric approach which considers these parameters to forecast and manage the domestic water use/demand. The model applies statistical tools to select suitable demand function and most relevant explanatory variables that have strong relationship with water use/demand. The model applicability is demonstrated with an example of domestic water use in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The results indicate that the number of connections, water pricing, public education level, and average annual rainfall are significant variables of domestic water use/demand. The paper further analyzes the effect of length of data series on accuracy of model results. The developed model is used to forecast the water use/demand in the future in the study area. Keywords Multivariate econometric model. Kathmandu Valley. Water demand forecast. Demand management 1. Introduction Water demand forecasts are required for proper planning, development and management of water resources. Mathematical models can be used to analyze the factors influencing water demand, understand their effects, predict the future demand and develop management plans accordingly. Demand management aims to reduce the wastage of water due to overuse and leakage. Demand management measures in the domestic sector include water conservation measures (leakage detection in distribution system, reduction of illegal household connections, in-house retrofitting, outdoor water saving measures etc.); water pricing (metering and tariff structures); information and education (awareness raising, public involvement and inschool education); and legal measures (rules and regulations that form the basis of policy,

The Aral Sea basin is a region that faces water scarcity due to aridity and man-made desertification. To reduce the disproportion between water demand and supply improved water management is required, particularly aimed at water saving and conservation in irrigated agriculture. One main issue is demand management by reducing the farm irrigation water demand by improved crop irrigation management since the modernization and rehabilitation of the conveyance and distribution systems are presently out of the scope in Uzbekistan. Under this perspective, the improvement of furrow irrigation systems, which are used on 98% of the irrigated lands, is a main issue. To assess the potential for improving the performance of furrow irrigation in the central part of the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan, a set of evaluation experiments was carried out. Irrigation management alternatives included several furrow inflow rates (1.2-2.4 l/(s furrow)) and furrow lengths (130 and 400 m); comparing every-furrow irrigation with alternate-furrow irrigation. Results were evaluated through the application efficiency (E a), the distribution uniformity (DU) and total applied irrigation depths. The best performances were obtained for alternate long furrows adopting the inflow rate of 1.8 l/(s furrow

With electric generation responsible for 41 percent of U.S anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from energy use, development of clean energy sources is essential if the United States is to reduce release of greenhouse gases and slow global warming. Many proponents of sustainable energy anticipate that electric generation from renewable sources would thrive in a deregulated market, driven by consumer demand for ''green'' energy and the end of incentives to build large central power plants under the cost-plus profits guaranteed by state utility commissions. This paper examines the flaws in this expectation. After reviewing the highly cyclical nature of U.S. energy policy making in recent decades, the study links the ineffectiveness of policy with the institutional setting. Under electric utility market restructuring, renewable energy generation (wind, biomass, solar, geothermal, and small-scale hydro) must overcome barriers such as price distortions, lack of storage capability, discriminatory transmission system access, and the end of linked utility rate hikes guaranteed to cover the additional expense of renewable generation. In the absence of strong federal leadership, the state commitment to renewable energy has been uneven under utility restructuring. Moreover, nuclear power-the other leading alternative to fossil fuel use-is beset by serious problems. Only renewable energy options offer long-term hope for sustainability. Along these lines, green marketing, renewable portfolio standards, system benefit charges, carbon taxes, public power, ''Community Choice,'' and production credits-all based on recent U.S. and European experience-are critically examined and recommendations made for changing course. At present, during this highly fluid period of utility restructuring, and absent more forceful regulation and demand management, it is dubious whether U.S. electricity market reform can encourage sufficient conversion to renewable energy to stem a rising tide of greenhouse gas emissions. Key Words: carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions, electric utility, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power.

This paper studies a problem faced by a manufacturer who has the ability to set prices to influence demand, reject orders, and set leadtimes or due-dates for accepted orders. We present decision models that integrate pricing and production decisions for the cases where the manufacturer charges the same price or different prices to different customers. Through numerical analyses, we present insights regarding the benefits of price customization, leadtime, and inventory flexibilities, in various demand environments.

Outdoor water restrictions are usually implemented as bans on a particular type of watering technology (sprinklers), which allow households to substitute for labourintensive (hand-held) watering. This paper presents a household production model approach to analysing the impact of sprinkler restrictions on consumer welfare and their efficacy as a demand management tool. Central to our empirical analysis is an experimentally derived production function which describes the relationship between irrigation and lawn quality. We demonstrate that for a typical consumer complete sprinkler bans may be little more effective than milder restrictions policies, but are substantially more costly to the household. JEL classifications: D13, Q25, Q58. 244 D. Brennan et al.

Land transportation remains one of the main contributors of noise and air pollution in urban areas. This is in addition to traffic congestion and accidents which result in the loss of productive activity. While there is a close relationship between traffic volumes and levels of noise and air pollution, transport authorities often assume that solving tragic congestion would reduce noise and air pollutant levels. Tight control over automobile ownership and use in Singapore has contributed in improving traffic flows, travel speeds and air quality. The adoption of internationally accepted standards on automobile emissions and gasoline have been effective in reducing air pollution from motor vehicles. Demand management measures have largely focused on controlling the source of tra5c congestion, i.e. private automobile ownership and its use especially within the Central Business District during the day. This paper reviews and analyzes the effectiveness of two measures which are instrumental in controlling congestion and automobile ownership, i.e. road pricing and the vehicle quota scheme (VQS). While these measures have been successful in achieving desired objectives, it has also led to the spreading of traffic externalities to other roads in the network, loss in consumer welfare and rent seeking by automobile traders.

Managing uncertainty when the demand is irregular and sporadic (i.e. "lumpy") is a complex issue as well as an unexplored one. This study analyses the behaviour of forecasting techniques when dealing with lumpy demand at the master production scheduling level. In particular, three forecasting techniques (exponentially weighted moving average, early sales and order overplanning) are considered. It is argued that demand lumpiness is a multidimensional phenomenon, generated by different market characteristics, namely, numerousness of customers, heterogeneity of customers, frequency of order placing, variety of each customer's request and correlation between customers behaviour. Hence, the performances of the three forecasting methods are compared, through simulation experiments, with different values of the sources of lumpiness. A framework is then proposed that indicates the domain of applicability of each forecasting technique according to the prevailing source of lumpiness in the market.

If an illness is not contractible, then even partially insured consumers demand treatment for it when the bene t is less than the cost, a condition known as moral hazard. Traditional health insurance, which controls moral hazard with copayments (demand management), can result in either a de cient or an excessive provision of treatment relative to ideal insurance. In particular, treatment for a low-probability illness is de cient if illness per se has little effect on the consumer's marginal utility of income and if the consumer's price elasticity of expected demand for treatment is large relative to the risk-spreading distortion when these are evaluated at a copayment that brings forth the ideal provision of treatment. Managed care, which controls moral hazard with physician incentives, can either increase or decrease treatment delivery relative to traditional insurance, depending on whether demand management results in de cient or excessive treatment.

Much in line with output and capital growth, employment in Germany and the US evolved rather differently too. Starting from around 6 per cent for both actual and structural unemployment in both countries in 1989, a year broadly comparable in cyclical terms, US unemployment since the 1990-1 recession has fallen below levels previously believed to be compatible with non-accelerating inflation. By contrast, roughly 1.5 million jobs (or 5% of the labour force) were wiped out in (West!) Germany after 1991, unemployment reaching the historical record of 10% in 1997. Inflation performance in Germany and the US was similar though. Peaking in the early 90s, inflation fell to about 2 per cent until 1997 in both countries. In Germany inflation even encroached the neighbourhood of zero in 1998-9. 4 Sources : OECD 1 , IMF 2 , Statistisches Bundesamt 3 , German Council of Economic Experts 4 (Annual Report 1998/99: tables A1 and D2), Deutsche Bundesbank 5 , own calculations 6 (see n. 7).

Development and analysis of demand management strategies for integrated multimodal urban corridor management requires application of a new generation of demand modeling and network analysis tools. This paper describes the development of a dynamic trip micro-assignment and (meso) simulation system that incorporates individual tripmaker choices of travel mode, departure time and route in multimodal urban transportation networks (with different travel modes such as drive alone, shared ride, bus rapid transit and metro rail). These travel choice dimensions are integrated in a stochastic utility maximization framework that considers multiple user decision criteria such as travel time, travel cost, schedule delay, as well as travel time reliability. A variational inequality model is first proposed to describe the general stochastic dynamic traffic user equilibrium problem. For a typical case that assumes the logit-based alternative choice model, this paper develops an equivalent gap function-based optimization formulation and a heuristic iterative solution procedure. Based on a multi-dimensional network representation, an efficient time-dependent least cost path algorithm is embedded to generate an intermodal route choice set that recognizes time-dependent mode transfer costs and feasible mode transfer sequences. A two-stage estimation procedure that can systematically utilize historical static demand information, time-dependent link counts, as well as empirically calibrated stochastic departure time choice models is proposed to infer commuters’ preferred arrival time distribution, which is important in modeling departure time choice dynamics. A case study based on a large-scale multimodal transportation network (adapted from the Baltimore–Washington corridor) is presented to illustrate the capabilities of the methodology and provide insight into the potential benefit of integrated multimodal corridor management.

In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a social Cost Benefit economic model, to evaluate the physical and economic outcomes from alternative water allocation policies in a river basin or sub-basin. From a hydrological perspective, surface and groundwater models were first applied to assess surface and groundwater resource availability. Then an allocation model was applied to reconcile the calculated surface and groundwater resources. From an economic perspective initially the value of water allocated to different uses in each demand centre within the system was estimated. These values were then placed in a social Cost Benefit Analysis to assess the economic consequences of different allocation scenarios over time and space. This approach is useful as it allows policymakers to consider not only the physical dimensions of distributing water, but also the economic consequences associated with it. This model is considered superior to other models as water is increasingly being seen as an economic good that should be allocated according to its value. The framework outlined in this paper was applied to the Musi sub-basin located in the Krishna Basin, India. In applying this framework it was concluded that competition for Musi water is very high, the transfer of water from agriculture to urban users is likely to grow in future and the value of water used in different agricultural zones is very low.

The role of various types of road user tolls has been an important part of Norwegian transport development for a number of years. There are now around 50 such projects in operation around the country. This paper examines the urban toll ring projects and presents results from new research into the schemes in Norway's three largest cities: Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim. The research indicates that key decisions are being debated as to whether the schemes will continue as toll rings, be stopped completely or transformed into more of a demand management style policy. Interviews with road and local authorities have shown that the feelings are mixed and that the decision will depend on various transport, social, organisational and political factors. This paper reviews the cases of Bergen, Oslo and Trondheim and documents the latest developments in each scheme. The theory behind the application of the toll rings is explored through the case studies. Despite all the projects being implemented by similar networks, each scheme developed its own individual characteristics. These are laid alongside the economic and transport benefits with which they have been associated. The Strategic Policy Niche Management framework is used to analyse various aspects of the toll projects and identify key lessons. The effect these might have on future UK projects is also discussed.

Each day power generating units have to be selected to realize a reliable production of electric energy with the fewest fuel costs. This paper proposes decomposition and dynamic programming as techniques for solving the unit commitment problem, a high dimensional non-linear, mixed-integer optimization problem. Experiments indicate that the proposed methods locate in less time a better solution than many existing techniques.

regard is given to demand management and the development of efficient processes, which reduce energy and resource usage and have a direct impact on waste generated. This paper presents a critical review of the limitations of applying the waste hierarchy to sustainable policy development.

This paper describes recent experience with integrated resource planning (IRP) and the application of least cost planning (LCP) for the evaluation of demand management strategies in urban water. Two Australian case studies, Sydney and Northern New South Wales (NSW) are used in illustration. LCP can determine the most cost effective means of providing water services or alternatively the cheapest forms of water conservation. LCP contrasts to a traditional approach of evaluation which look only at means of increasing supply. Detailed investigation of water usage, known as end-use analysis is require for LCP. End-use analysis allows both rigorous demand forecasting, and the development and evaluation of conservation strategies. Strategies include education campaigns, increasing water use efficiency and promoting wastewater reuse or rainwater tanks. The optimal mix of conservation strategies and conventional capacity expansion is identified based on levelised unit cost. IRP uses LCP in the iterative process, evaluating and assessing options, investing in selected options, measuring the results, and then reevaluating options. Key to this process is the design of cost effective demand management programs. IRP however includes a range of parameters beyond least economic cost into the planning process and program designs, including uncertainty, benefit partitioning and implementation considerations.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness and sensitivity of patameters that describe various soil organic matter characteristics for the evaluation of harvesting impacts on ecosystem function, using an ecosystem-level. hybrid simulation model (FORECAST, a model developed from its predecessor FORCYTE-1 1). Four separate sets of forest management options were applied to both a simulated unmanaged Douglas-fir forest (with a high accumulation of forest floor, coarse woody debris, and the nutrients contained therein) and to a simulated Douglas-fir forest growing on a site depleted in organic matter and nutrients. These four options consisted of the combination of two rotation lengths (40 vs. 80 years). and two levels of biomass utilization (full-tree vs. conventional tree length harvest). Based on the model simulations, productivity on the previously unmanaged site dropped significantly (to 59% of the value for the original, unmanaged forest) by the end of the second 40 year rotation when subjected to an intensive management option (40year rotation •. full-tree harvesting). However, a rapid drop in the active soil pool of decomposing organic matter occurred and was not rebuilt. As a result of this reduction in the size of the active soil pool, nitrogen deficiencies (N-demand greater than N-uptake) occurred in the subsequent rotations. In contrast. the initially nutritionally degraded site responded positively to an intermediate level of management (SO year rotations, stem-only harvesting), with a steady increment in the active soil organic matter pool size over the 240 year simulation period. This response indicates that sites degraded by past activities generally have the ability to recover (aggrade) if put under a less demanding management regime. Change in the mass and dynamics of active soil organic matter provides a more rapid and sensitive parameter than tree growth when attempting to assess the sustainability of management alternatives. Examples are presented which illustrate the importance of the starting state condition, as well as the management system being applied, when attempting to assess the sustainability of management alternatives.© 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Planning processes along a demand supply network in an environment characterized by rapid market fluctuations and product changes are studied. The relationship between demand planning and the bullwhip effect is investigated by comparing planning accuracy in different demand supply network echelons and locating where there is most nervousness. The results show that planning accuracy varies between the parties in the supply chain. A proposal is made to stabilize planning in an environment characterized by fast market and product changes. Besides the increased complexity of the network the frequent changes in product portfolio makes the management of demand supply networks more challenging.

To ensure efficient water allocation and use, policy designers have adopted various strategies, including price setting, decentralizing irrigation water management or improving water rights. Most of these strategies have been applied individually, without considering the complementary relationships between them. This paper uses a discrete choice model to analyse the scope for combinations of tools for irrigation water demand management and farmers’ acceptance of these. In terms of local irrigation water governance, the presence or absence of collective irrigation water management, in the form of a Water Users Association, is considered. Water rights are specified in terms of the duration and quality of the entitlement and its transferability. Finally, four types of water pricing methods (area, crop, block and volumetric pricing) are considered. Using a choice experiment, we elicit the most preferred water pricing method, under different water rights situations, at different price levels and under various contexts for local irrigation water governance. Our results indicated that under conditions of improved water rights, preference for volumetric pricing increases, whilst the presence of a Water Users Association reduces this preference. Furthermore, it was found that using an appropriate combination of water demand management tools considerably increases the willingness to pay for a change in scenario.

Transport activity, a key component of economic development and human welfare, is increasing around the world as economies grow. For most policymakers, the most pressing problems associated with this increasing transport activity are traffic fatalities and injuries, congestion, air pollution and petroleum dependence. These problems are especially acute in the most rapidly growing economies of the developing world. Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can take its place among these other transport priorities by emphasizing synergies and co-benefits (high agreement, much evidence).