Climate and volcanism

The main challenges to the sustainable development of humanity were identified and ways to win those challenges proposed, by changing the key concepts in education, science and governance. We conclude that urgent measures should be implemented to avoid the impending catastrophe.

During the last 170 years, global temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration have increased. The greenhouse effect of CO 2 is supposed to increase temperatures. Published data on global temperature, CO 2 data, and data on sea ice in Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities to cause the observed increases is weak. Rather, it is found that rate of change in the CO 2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. The trend in correlation between temperature and growth of CO 2 concentration indicates that to stop the concentration from growing, the temperature has first to be decreased to 1 K below the mean value during 1981-2010. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify global temperature, or concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. Furthermore, correlation is found between seasonal variations of CO 2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities.

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the prevailing theory of the IPCC for global warming. Greenhouse (GH) gases are the major drivers, whereas albedo, aerosols, and clouds have had cooling effects, and natural drivers have an insignificant role (<0.8 %). According to Assessment Report 6 (AR6), these radiative forcings (RF) have been a total of 2.70 Wm-2 causing a temperature increase of 1.27 °C in 2019. Many research studies are showing significantly lower RF and climate sensitivity values for anthropogenic climate drivers. Research studies offering natural climate drivers as the partial or total solution for global warming have gradually emerged like solar radiation changes, cosmic forces, and multidecadal, century-and millennial-scale oscillations. The cloud effects are still a major concern in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The cloudiness changes have a major role in cosmic effects like magnifying the warming effect of the Total Solar Irradiation (TSI). The 60-and 88-year oscillations are the best-known oscillations, which are commonly known as AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the Gleissberg cycle explaining the ups and downs of the global temperature in the 1900s. Mechanisms of long-term climate oscillations are still under debate. There are also essential differences between carbon cycle models and GH effect magnitude specifications. The synthesis of these natural climate drivers together with anthropogenic drivers constitutes an alternative theory called Natural Anthropogenic Global Warming (NAGW), in which natural drivers have a major role in dominating the warming during the current warm period. These results mean that there is no climate crisis and a need for prompt CO2 reduction programs.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was founded in 1986. Representatives of the 198 nations which ratified the Convention meet annually to coordinate responses to the core claim of the UNFCCC that humanly produced greenhouse gases, and principally carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, cause 'dangerous climate change'. 26 meetings of the parties have overseen a succession of international agreements to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. These agreements, and related innovations such as national carbon emissions reduction targets, have had no impact on atmospheric CO2 levels. But they are creating a climate leviathan that is rationing the availability of energy to contemporary humans by reducing investment in oil and gas and increasing its price. This imposes heavy burdens on lower income citizens while benefitting oil and gas companies. The climate regime is premised on the claim humanly produced CO2 is the principal driver of modern climate change, and that future climate change will visit terrible harms on future people if emissions of CO2 are not substantially curtailed. But modern climate variability is well within historic norms and the exclusive focus of the IPCC on industrially produced CO2 neglects other scientifically established sources of CO2, and other causes of climate change, including volcanism, varying cycles of solar activity, the gravitational pull of other planets, and changes in the Earth's magnetic field and ocean currents. The climate regime therefore rests on scientifically contested premises. But it is detrimentally impacting the capacities of citizens to access affordable energy, food and safe habitat. It is also paving the way for invasive forms of technocratic control including growing restraints on business and household activities, and even 'lockdowns' for the climate, that do not have proven net benefits for present or future humans or the planet.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was founded in 1986. Representatives of the 198 nations which ratified the Convention meet annually to coordinate responses to the core claim of the UNFCCC that humanly produced greenhouse gases, and principally carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions, cause 'dangerous climate change'. 26 meetings of the parties have overseen a succession of international agreements to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. These agreements, and related innovations such as national carbon emissions reduction targets, have had no impact on atmospheric CO 2 levels. But they are creating a climate leviathan that is rationing the availability of energy to contemporary humans by reducing investment in oil and gas and increasing its price. This imposes heavy burdens on lower income citizens while benefitting oil and gas companies. The climate regime is premised on the claim humanly produced CO 2 is the principal driver of modern climate change, and that future climate change will visit terrible harms on future people if emissions of CO2 are not substantially curtailed. But modern climate variability is well within historic norms and the exclusive focus of the IPCC on industrially produced CO 2 neglects other scientifically established sources of CO 2, and other causes of climate change, including volcanism, varying cycles of solar activity, the gravitational pull of other planets, and changes in the Earth's magnetic field and ocean currents. The climate regime therefore rests on scientifically contested premises. But it is detrimentally impacting the capacities of citizens to access affordable energy, food and safe habitat. It is also paving the way for invasive forms of technocratic control including growing restraints on business and household activities, and even 'lockdowns' for the climate, that do not have proven net benefits for present or future humans or the planet.

Significance Based on ice core archives of sulfate and tephra deposition, one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the historic period and of the past 7,000 y occurred in A.D. 1257. However the source of this “mystery eruption” remained unknown. Drawing on a robust body of new evidence from radiocarbon dates, tephra geochemistry, stratigraphic data, a medieval chronicle, this study argues that the source of this eruption is Samalas volcano, part of the Mount Rinjani Volcanic Complex on Lombok Island, Indonesia. These results solve a conundrum that has puzzled glaciologists, volcanologists, and climatologists for more than three decades. In addition, the identification of this volcano gives rise to the existence of a forgotten Pompeii in the Far East.

Mount Tambora (+2851m) which was catastrophically erupted in 1815 is the one of the three calderas in Indonesia, which was formed during 750 years and consecutively built up between Mount Rinjani in 1258 and Mount Krakatau in 1883. The site is situated in Sumbawa Island, West Nusa Tenggara as the product of the collision of Eurasian and Australian plates. This setting creates a high geological diversity and provides an opportunity to be developed as national park. Geologist plays an important role to present accurate information about the volcanic formation and process and about the uniqueness of Mount Tambora to support its lifted status to national park. The geologist of Geological Agency carried out several activities to support these objectives since 1998. The outcome of works consists of surveys, seminars, and the preparation of the legal documents related. The development of national park as an alternative tourism is a new paradigm in Indonesia. The purpose in short term is to obtain the geological database over geodiversity of Indonesia while at a long term, it will contribute to geological hazard mitigation through world-class geoconservation. In 2013, The Indonesian Ministry of Forestry has been demanded some geologists from Geological Agency and other related research institutions to collaborate and had been given an order to generate several assessments regarding its emerging status to become a national park in 2015. The effort to this national park status will supposedly give positive impacts to Mount Tambora as a world site which contributes to assemble education and geotourism values in one protected and conserved area.

Indonesia hosts the largest number of active volcanoes, several of which are renowned for climate-changing historical eruptions. This pedigree might suggest a substantial fraction of global volcanic sulfur emissions from Indonesia and are intrinsically driven by sulfur-rich magmas. However, a paucity of observations has hampered evaluation of these points—many volcanoes have hitherto not been subject to emissions measurements. Here we report new gas measurements from Indonesian volcanoes. The combined SO2 output amounts to 1.15 ± 0.48 Tg/yr. We estimate an additional time-averaged SO2 yield of 0.12-0.54 Tg/yr for explosive eruptions, indicating a total SO2 inventory of 1.27-1.69 Tg/yr for Indonesian. This is comparatively modest—individual volcanoes such as Etna have sustained higher fluxes. To understand this paradox, we compare the geodynamic, petrologic, magma dynamical and shallow magmatic-hydrothermal processes that influence the sulfur transfer to the atmosphere. Results reinf...

The IPCC natural climate change denialists simply ignore the full extent of the massive quantitative negative cloud feedback data (from Spencer et al 2 ) which offset if they don't totally cancel out the naïve heating predictions due to CO 2 increases. The lower air pressure and temperature above the surface causes sunlight-warmed evaporated water vapour to rise and condense into cloud cover which dims and cools the surface below. Go further up in altitude and the air gets cleaner, with less dust and condensation nuclei (it's the high air density at sea level which keeps fine dust suspended for long periods; as air density decreases higher up, dust falls out faster; in a vacuum dust would accelerate downward at 9.8ms -2 ). It's analogous to a Wilson cloud chamber, where air ions from cosmic rays act as condensation nuclei that attract water molecules and set off cloud formation. This produces vapour trails around the tracks of alpha and beta particles, and charged cosmic ray collision particles. Nigel Calder, the former New Scientist editor, has correlated the inverse cosmic ray cycle with radiosonde temperature (Fig. ).

There is a firm evidence that polar ice-caps are, in places, swiftly melting. This is both in response to emergence from the last ice age but also ongoing rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula the number of glaciers retreating and retreat rates are increasing and there is much consensus on some effects of this on biodiversity. Ice reduction is leading to new sea-ways, and habitat for ice associated organisms is regionally dying out. More light and heat will get entrance into the water column, increasing primary productivity and sinks for CO 2. Melt water flow into seas is causing freshening, stratification, and near-shore sedimentation. These factors negatively influence on biodiversity by clogging and burying the plankton eaters living on the seabed. Changes in water-mass properties and current dynamics will influence the deeper communities of animals, even the deep sea by, for example, by carrying less oxygen. Such processes will make polar regions more susceptible to invasive species. Losing Antarctic species is a loss to global biodiversity and

This study invistigates the effect of global warming on the ice caps melting of poles. The research procedures rely on information, reports and data about the polar ice caps melting from the professional organization and institution, such as National Geographic (NG), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The data shows that melting of the ice caps increases in different areas of the world. The ice glaciers of Arctic decrease by about 10 % in the past 30 years. The ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland together contributes approximately 12 % of the rise in sea levels. Thickness of the ice caps will be decreased and potential energy of the ice cover will be converted into kinetic energy. The coastal and islands areas of the world are vulnerable to the climate change and will be affected by the ice caps melting. Sea levels could rise about 50 cm by year 2100. This level seems that it is not a significant increase but this rise can caus...

The geological record provides powerful evidence that atmospheric CO 2 concentrations drive climate change, and supports multiple lines of evidence that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are altering the Earth's climate. Moreover, the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere means that Earth is committed to a certain degree of warming. As the Earth's climate changes due to the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land-use, the planet we live on will experience further changes that will have increasingly drastic effects on human societies. An assessment of past climate changes helps to inform policy decisions regarding future climate change. Earth scientists will also have an important role to play in the delivery of any policies aimed at limiting future climate change.

Large explosive eruptions inject volcanic gases and fine ash to stratospheric altitudes, contributing to global cooling at the Earth&#39;s surface and occasionally to ozone depletion. The modelling of the climate response to these strong injections of volatiles commonly relies on ice-core records of volcanic sulphate aerosols. Here we use an independent geochemical approach which demonstrates that the great 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lombok, Indonesia) released enough sulphur and halogen gases into the stratosphere to produce the reported global cooling during the second half of the 13th century, as well as potential substantial ozone destruction. Major, trace and volatile element compositions of eruptive products recording the magmatic differentiation processes leading to the 1257 eruption indicate that Mt Samalas released 158 ± 12 Tg of sulphur dioxide, 227 ± 18 Tg of chlorine and a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.3 Tg of bromine. These emissions stand as the greatest volcanogenic gas injection...

Large explosive eruptions inject volcanic gases and fine ash to stratospheric altitudes, contributing to global cooling at the Earth&#39;s surface and occasionally to ozone depletion. The modelling of the climate response to these strong injections of volatiles commonly relies on ice-core records of volcanic sulphate aerosols. Here we use an independent geochemical approach which demonstrates that the great 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lombok, Indonesia) released enough sulphur and halogen gases into the stratosphere to produce the reported global cooling during the second half of the 13th century, as well as potential substantial ozone destruction. Major, trace and volatile element compositions of eruptive products recording the magmatic differentiation processes leading to the 1257 eruption indicate that Mt Samalas released 158 ± 12 Tg of sulphur dioxide, 227 ± 18 Tg of chlorine and a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.3 Tg of bromine. These emissions stand as the greatest volcanogenic gas injection...

Climate Change: An Emerging Issue investigates and focuses on the facts behind modern Climate Change, as well as historical occurrences. Readers will learn the importance of understanding and combating Climate Change, as well as what it is and how it has changed over time, in this collection of well-written articles.

Large explosive eruptions inject volcanic gases and fine ash to stratospheric altitudes, contributing to global cooling at the Earth&#39;s surface and occasionally to ozone depletion. The modelling of the climate response to these strong injections of volatiles commonly relies on ice-core records of volcanic sulphate aerosols. Here we use an independent geochemical approach which demonstrates that the great 1257 eruption of Samalas (Lombok, Indonesia) released enough sulphur and halogen gases into the stratosphere to produce the reported global cooling during the second half of the 13th century, as well as potential substantial ozone destruction. Major, trace and volatile element compositions of eruptive products recording the magmatic differentiation processes leading to the 1257 eruption indicate that Mt Samalas released 158 ± 12 Tg of sulphur dioxide, 227 ± 18 Tg of chlorine and a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.3 Tg of bromine. These emissions stand as the greatest volcanogenic gas injection...

This book is a must-have for any person interested in the history of what is called climate science and of the people who contributed to shaping the dominant ideas of our time. It also describes how the power struggles of various influential groups determined where we stand today. Though the book is focused on people who made things happen, it never misses on reminding us, whenever necessary, of the underlying scientific knowledge and reasoning that prevails, or rather should prevail, in making rational analyses and decisions in climate matters. Andy May also demonstrates the considerable level of incertitude that remains after 40 years of intensive research and acknowledges that some key variables in the understanding of the climate system are unfortunately not better known today than they were 40 years ago. Science is important, but history is about people who make things happen, and this is what this excellent book is all about. The role of all those who made important contributions is told, the scientists of course, but perhaps more importantly how many other players entered the game. The book ends reflecting on the prescient analysis of Dwight D. Eisenhower who foretold how public policies have become the captive of a scientific-technological elite who are controlled by funding from bureaucrats and politicians. Andy May gives a fascinating account of this important part of human history, that will undoubtedly shape the future of our civilizations, and not necessarily for the greater good that is assumed.

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, UNCED), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, held 3rd-14th June 1992, launched the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which operates through its annual roadshow the UN Conference of Parties (COP) that seeks to establish sustainable management of the global climate system.

The  'Earth Summit' by UN in 1992 brought the problems  in climate to the attention of even some of the world's most remote and isolated nations. One of these nations was the Hopi Nation in Arizona, a non-sovereign nation - which the UN labels as 'indigenous peoples'. In a long chain of events beginning from the League of Nations' decision in 1926 to deny the First Nations of Americas and the small island nations' representation in that international forum, its successor the United Nations, turned down four attempts by the Hopi Nation to raise the issue between 1948 and 1992. Finally, in the immediate aftermath of the Rio Earth Summit (1992), the United Nations Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the Hopi Nation to table the matter to the floor of UN General Assembly 10th-11th December 1992.

The First Nations of Americas Ethnoclimatology Motion and the Tradition-Keepers ('Faith-Keepers') background to that motion is elaborated here in this UNFCCC submission with further points were raised in 1st-2nd October 2018 at CRIAS conference. This contextualises the First Nations of Americas UN General Assembly Investigation Request 101292 which was the Concluding Plea of the World Indigenous Peoples' Joint Summit with the United Nations Parties ('Member States') Delegations to open the first UN Year of the Indigenous People (1993) to other ethnoclimatologies appearing world wide. The Geophysical Annotations were discussed at the Cochabamba-Tiquipaya Climate Summit (CMPCC1) in aftermath of the collapsed Copenhagen Climate Summit COP15 (2009) with the request from the UNESCO Delegation of the Plurinational State of Bolivia on 7th January 2010 and His Excellency President Evo Morales Ayma.

The key tenents of the Geophysical Annotations being:

(1) A signal noise from a substantial radiocarbon-dilution effect due to major sea level retreats and rises during the Ice Ages that depressurised methane clathrates - releasing copious amounts of methane and carbon dioxide into air from depressurised seabed clathrates and also from thawing terra firma permafrost; this results in regressive, or sideway, 14C  readings in tree rings ("tree rings in a wrong order"). Thus, the Ice Ages era (the last glacial maxium to holocene thermal maximum period) cores of the tree trunks can appear substantially 14C-younger than the tree trunks' latest (outermost) tree-rings which cannot be the case due to the extreme steadiness of the radiocarbon's decay rate.

(2) Methane accumulates to upper troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere: hence any methane signature in the ice cores is only from methane-in-transit. Additionally the global warming episode that ended the ice ages had heavy methane loads that warmed and melted away most of the era's recent ice surfaces, thus obliterating the-then-most recently laid down snow stratum (leaving behind the earlier less methane rich snow layers). This caused incomplete records (time gaps) in the ice cores, and hence "global warming" always appears "before" higher atmospheric CO2 or CH4 levels (hence appearing as if them being 'respondents', rather than the drivers of climate warning).

(3) Noting that the partial melting equations can also be run inverse direction, it is proposed that the Pleistocene glaciations resulted in damage to Peridotite which partially melted producing basalt deposition in a large scale onto the seafloor in vast effusive eruptions with field emission of heat rather than radial spot emission of heat like in modern-day Surtseyan eruptions that have only a minimal heat crossing to sea surface due to small spatial extent of hot subsea surface. The vaporisation of sea water in field emission is vast due to spatial extent of hot subsea surface greatly exceeding the thickness of overlying water column, leading to runaway snowfalls. This caused an inflated size hydrological cycle which effectively washed out atmosphere-generated radiocarbon while geological seabed-associated depressurised carbon-12 was being released en masse leading to negligible carbon-14 readings (the radiocarbon-dilution effect by the Pleistocene's hydrological cycle / sea bed depressurisation).

On these three premises, the First Nations of Americans Ethnoclimatology Motion at the United Nations General Assembly on 10th-11th December 1992 is proposed as a variant possibility to the climate theories advocated aggressively by the Western Group of Nations and their influential academia. Its implications to present-day climate change suggest that the Polar Ice Caps will continue on their much-faster-than-anticipated loss trajectory to violent collapses. This aspect was highlighted in Sea Research Society's Evidence Giving at the UK Houses of Parliament in Environmental Audit Committee evidence giving on 5th and 24th April 2017. The urgency of situation is underlined by the fact that despite world-wide economic shut down by covid-19, carbon dioxide has continued its rapid rise to 417 parts per million indicating that time to act is running out as the remaining North Pole marine ice cap is soon to melt away and then destabilise the surrounding glaciers post Arctic sea ice (most notably the Greenland Ice Sheet).

"The implications of global warming have become increasingly clear. Yet, great inconsistencies are emerging amongst the world’s nations as to their policy responses to the perceived threats from global warming and other environmental changes. The consensus view that once may have existed in some nations and imposed on others, appears now to be breaking down.

Exceedingly costly socio-economic policy mistakes will be the inevitable corollary of this world-wide scientific consensus breakdown as the policy responses of the different nations change in how they adapt to climate change risks. These inconsistent responses are now visible all over the world. A good example is the costly decision by Germany to demolish all their nuclear power facilities (due to the perceived flooding risks by the sea) in the aftermath of the Fukushima incident in Japan; whereas the UK is introducing new nuclear facilities in the Bristol Channel, where flooding risks are high and a tsunami struck in 1607.

As a result of immensely costly policy decisions by Germany and the UK, thousands of people in both countries are already on the move in search of new homes and jobs: some to build nuclear reactors, while some wish to remove them for the ‘good’ of our environment. Similar examples are found across the world in many different situations due to the climate-driven uncertainties.

A major source of uncertainty is the sea level.  If Arctic meltdown proceeds unchecked, then some scientists say that we could have several metres of sea level rise, even by mid-century.  This is very problematical for low-lying conurbations.  For example Egypt is considering rebuilding Cairo inland in order to allow evacuation of the Nile Delta in case ofsea level rise. Furthermore, the disappearance of sea ice in summer may enhance the break-off of large volumes of ice from the Greenland ice sheet, sufficient to cause tsunamis in the North Atlantic. What is an appropriate response? "