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Outline

Expecting the unexpected in the search for extraterrestrial life

International Journal of Astrobiology

https://doi.org/10.1017/S1473550420000269

Abstract

On p. 10 of the 2018 National Academies Exoplanet Science Strategy document (NASEM 2018), ‘Expect the unexpected’ is described as a general principle of the exoplanet field. But for the next 150 pages, this principle is apparently forgotten, as strategy decisions are repeatedly put forward based on our expectations. This paper explores what exactly it might mean to ‘expect the unexpected’, and how this could possibly be achieved by the space science community. An analogy with financial investment strategies is considered, where a balanced portfolio of low/medium/high-risk investments is recommended. Whilst this kind of strategy would certainly be advisable in many scientific contexts (past and present), in certain contexts – especially exploratory science – a significant disanalogy needs to be factored in: financial investors cannot choose low-risk high-reward investments, but sometimes scientists can. The existence of low-risk high-impact projects in cutting-edge space science sign...

FAQs

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How has the principle of 'expect the unexpected' shaped exoplanet research strategies?add

Despite its inclusion in document NASEM (2018), the strategy predominantly reflects theoretical biases, limiting unexpected discoveries.

What evidence supports the argument that scientific expectations bias discoveries in exoplanets?add

Studies show detection biases led researchers to overlook short-period orbits, thus missing significant findings like 51 Peg b.

In what ways do funding decisions impact the discovery of exoplanets?add

Funding tends to favor low-risk projects, which may result in the neglect of high-risk, high-payoff research opportunities.

What role do anomalies play in shaping exoplanet research trajectories?add

Anomalous discoveries like ribozymes highlight the importance of remaining open to unexpected results that challenge existing theories.

How can a balanced portfolio approach benefit exoplanet research funding?add

Adopting a balanced portfolio strategy could elevate innovative, high-risk projects alongside reliable, expected outcomes in exoplanet science.

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