David Hanrahan

The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum

Intereconomics, Sep 1, 2017

BREXIT: Key Analytical Issues and Insights from Revised Economic Forecasts

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2018

Summary This contribution takes a look at the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators from 2015, i.... more Summary This contribution takes a look at the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators from 2015, i.e. prior to the BREXIT referendum, and 2017. The revised indicators indeed show that BREXIT has a significant impact on output growth, inflation and foreign exchange dynamics, with lower projected GDP growth already visible in the short term. The findings support the analysis of the Treasury, amongst others, in their study of 2016. Key analytical issues are discussed here including the information deficit during the referendum campaign, but also the policy options and challenges facing the United Kingdom and EU27 as the UK attempts to reinforce output growth in the coming years. Zusammenfassung: Dieser Beitrag befasst sich mit den Prognosen der makrookonomischen Indikatoren aus dem Jahr 2015, d.h. vor dem BREXIT-Referendum und 2017. Die uberarbeiteten Indikatoren zeigen, dass der BREXIT erhebliche Auswirkungen auf das Produktionswachstum, die Inflation und die Wechselkursdynamik hat und das projizierte BIP-Wachstum schon kurzfristig geringer sichtbar ist. Die Ergebnisse stutzen die Analyse des Finanzministeriums, unter anderem, die in ihrer Studie von 2016. Hier werden wichtige analytische Fragen erortert, darunter das Informationsdefizit wahrend der Kampagne fur das Referendum, aber auch die politischen Optionen und Herausforderungen, vor denen das Vereinigte Konigreich und die EU27, zur Steigerung des Produktionswachstums in den kommenden Jahren, steht.

BREXIT: Key Analytical Issues and Insights from Revised Economic Forecasts

Summary This contribution takes a look at the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators from 2015, i.... more Summary This contribution takes a look at the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators from 2015, i.e. prior to the BREXIT referendum, and 2017. The revised indicators indeed show that BREXIT has a significant impact on output growth, inflation and foreign exchange dynamics, with lower projected GDP growth already visible in the short term. The findings support the analysis of the Treasury, amongst others, in their study of 2016. Key analytical issues are discussed here including the information deficit during the referendum campaign, but also the policy options and challenges facing the United Kingdom and EU27 as the UK attempts to reinforce output growth in the coming years. Zusammenfassung: Dieser Beitrag befasst sich mit den Prognosen der makrookonomischen Indikatoren aus dem Jahr 2015, d.h. vor dem BREXIT-Referendum und 2017. Die uberarbeiteten Indikatoren zeigen, dass der BREXIT erhebliche Auswirkungen auf das Produktionswachstum, die Inflation und die Wechselkursdynamik hat und ...

Electrical Bus Mobility in the EU and China: Technological, Ecological and Economic Policy Perspectives

The analysis provides a hybrid techno-economic perspective on EU and China e-bus development dyna... more The analysis provides a hybrid techno-economic perspective on EU and China e-bus development dynamics. China is a leading global electric bus user – particularly in certain provinces. In Europe, the European Commission has started an electric bus initiative and several EU member countries have tried to achieve progress with regard to their own municipal e-bus fleets. While the economic analysis shows that e-bus innovation and diffusion dynamics can be influenced by government procurement policy, it is also obvious that certain pricing schemes in e-bus (mixed) municipal mobility networks are not successfully promoting clean e-bus expansion. A key issue is that various grant schemes depress the prices for used e-buses which in turn creates additional risk for e-bus leasing arrangements. Industrial policy aspects as well innovation policy face challenges in the e-bus context. China’s regional e-bus approaches have shown considerable success and part of China’s patent dynamics supports ...

The ETS in China and Europe: dynamics, policy options and global sustainability perspectives

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017

The Emission Trading Schemes of China and Europe show that China's envisaged national ETS could b... more The Emission Trading Schemes of China and Europe show that China's envisaged national ETS could bring a major contribution in the international approach against global warming; new perspectives on the use of composite sustainability indicators are also highlighted. China's regional pilot schemes will converge to a (more) uniform price of emission allowances. As China is a major economic and political actor in the world economy, China's progress with ETS is important. At the same time, China's progress in the field of green international competitivenessstanding for a positive revealed comparative advantage in environmentally friendly goodsin the period 2000-2015 is considerable and the improved positioning of China in the EIIW-vita sustainability indicator shows considerable technological dynamics in Asia. The European ETS is working, but it suffers from the rather low price of emission allowances. The long-term time horizon of 2050 in the EU climate policy is rather ambitious and it is unclear whether or not a consistent G20 approach can be achievedwith the EU, China, Japan and the US cooperating amongst each other. There is a lack of a specialized climate stabilization institution in the world economy, the traditional anchoring of climate policy in the UN weakens the practical pressure for efficient cooperation since the UN is very heterogeneous in terms of per capita income and GHG emissions per unit of GDP; G20 might be an institution that is suitable for effective policy cooperation. More initiatives in the field of recycling could be useful.

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The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum

Intereconomics

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Digitalization as a Determinant of Tax Revenues in OECD Countries: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international dis... more The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international discussions on public revenues in recent years. The digital transformation is seen as being an exacerbating factor in the erosion of tax bases and the shifting of profits to low tax jurisdictions, particularly by multinational companies, thus reducing tax revenues for governments. While there is a large literature examining the role of ICT and digitalization in raising economic growth, productivity and other macroeconomic variables, the relationship between digitalization and tax revenues has been relatively understudied – despite being one of key drivers of what could be most significant change to international tax rules in a century. This study utilizes panel data covering OECD countries during the period from 1995 to 2018, and examines the effect of the rise of digitalization on tax revenues employing both static and dynamic panel data analysis techniques. The findings indicate that digi...

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Digitalization as a Determinant of Tax Revenues in OECD Countries: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international dis... more The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international discussions on public revenues in recent years. The digital transformation is seen as being an exacerbating factor in the erosion of tax bases and the shifting of profits to low tax jurisdictions, particularly by multinational companies, thus reducing tax revenues for governments. While there is a large literature examining the role of ICT and digitalization in raising economic growth, productivity and other macroeconomic variables, the relationship between digitalization and tax revenues has been relatively understudied – despite being one of key drivers of what could be most significant change to international tax rules in a century. This study utilizes panel data covering OECD countries during the period from 1995 to 2018, and examines the effect of the rise of digitalization on tax revenues employing both static and dynamic panel data analysis techniques. The findings indicate that digi...

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Digitalization as a Determinant of Tax Revenues in OECD Countries: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international dis... more The tax challenges of digitalization have been to the forefront of national and international discussions on public revenues in recent years. The digital transformation is seen as being an exacerbating factor in the erosion of tax bases and the shifting of profits to low tax jurisdictions, particularly by multinational companies, thus reducing tax revenues for governments. While there is a large literature examining the role of ICT and digitalization in raising economic growth, productivity and other macroeconomic variables, the relationship between digitalization and tax revenues has been relatively understudied – despite being one of key drivers of what could be most significant change to international tax rules in a century. This study utilizes panel data covering OECD countries during the period from 1995 to 2018, and examines the effect of the rise of digitalization on tax revenues employing both static and dynamic panel data analysis techniques. The findings indicate that digi...

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