R. Hertwig

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Estimating quantities: comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms

by R. Hertwig and Jan K Woike

Estimating quantities is an important everyday task. We analyzed the performance of various estim... more Estimating quantities is an important everyday task. We analyzed the performance of various estimation strategies in ninety-nine real-world environments drawn from various domains. In an extensive simulation study, we compared two classes of strategies: one included machine learning algorithms such as general regression neural networks and classification and regression trees, the other two psychologically plausible and computationally much simpler heuristics (QEst and Zig-QEst). We report the strategies’ ability to generalize from training sets to new data and explore the ecological rationality of their use; that is, how well they perform as a function of the statistical structure of the environment. While the machine learning algorithms outperform the heuristics when fitting data, Zig-QEst is competitive when making predictions out-of-sample.

More Is Not Always Better: The Benefits of Cognitive Limits

Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment and Decision Making, 2005

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Evolutionary Cognitive Psychology

Buss/The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology, 2015

... Evolutionary cognitive psychology Peter M. Todd, Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage Chapter for t... more

The affect gap in risky choice: Affect-rich outcomes attenuate attention to probability information

Decision, 2014

It has been suggested that people decide differently when faced with affect-rich prospects (e.g.,... more It has been suggested that people decide differently when faced with affect-rich prospects (e.g., medical side effects) than with prospects triggering more moderate amounts of affect (e.g., monetary losses). Does this potential impact of affect on risky decision making even result in preference reversals? And if so, how do the cognitive processes underlying the respective decisions differ? Using a within-subjects design, the current research contrasted choices between prospects with relatively affect-rich outcomes and choices between prospects with relatively affect-poor but monetarily equivalent outcomes. Across three studies, findings consistently showed a substantial divergence in participants' affect-rich and affectpoor choices, resulting in systematic within-subject preference reversals. This "affect gap" held for outcomes associated both with negative affect (Studies 1 and 3) and with positive affect (Study 2). Furthermore, computational modeling suggested that in affect-poor choice people commonly rely on a compensatory process that trades off outcome and probability, whereas in affect-rich choice (in particular between outcomes invoking negative affect) people more often rely on a noncompensatory, heuristic process that compares outcomes between options while disregarding probabilities. This interpretation is also supported by process data (Study 3) showing that people pay less attention to probability information and conduct more intradimensional comparisons in affect-rich choices than in affect-poor choices.

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The Mind as an Intuitive Pollster: Frugal Search in Social Spaces

Simple Heuristics in a Social World, 2012

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The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice

Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition, 2005

The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice Ralph Hertwig, Greg Barron, Elke U. Weber, and I... more

Harnessing the wisdom of the inner crowd

Trends in cognitive sciences, 2014

Ever since Galton's classic demonstration of the wisdom of crowds in estimating the weight of... more Ever since Galton's classic demonstration of the wisdom of crowds in estimating the weight of a slaughtered ox, scholars of the mind and the public alike have been fascinated by the counterintuitive accuracy achieved by simply averaging a number of people's estimates. Surprisingly, individuals can, to some extent, harness the wisdom of crowds within the confines of their own mind by averaging self-generated, nonredundant estimates.

Experimental practices in economics: a methodological challenge for psychologists?

The Behavioral and brain sciences, 2001

This target article is concerned with the implications of the surprisingly different experimental... more This target article is concerned with the implications of the surprisingly different experimental practices in economics and in areas of psychology relevant to both economists and psychologists, such as behavioral decision making. We consider four features of experimentation in economics, namely, script enactment, repeated trials, performance-based monetary payments, and the proscription against deception, and compare them to experimental practices in psychology, primarily in the area of behavioral decision making. Whereas economists bring a precisely defined "script" to experiments for participants to enact, psychologists often do not provide such a script, leaving participants to infer what choices the situation affords. By often using repeated experimental trials, economists allow participants to learn about the task and the environment; psychologists typically do not. Economists generally pay participants on the basis of clearly defined performance criteria; psychologi...

The challenge of the description–experience gap to the communication of risks

Heuristics

Hindsight bias as a result of cue updating

Bounded and ecological rationality: A research program-Reply to Broder

Cue and instance sampling in judgments of event frequencies

Age Differences in Risky Choice: Formal Modeling with Prospect Theory

Statistics: What seems natural? Response

of Book: The logic of cognitive systems: Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Cognitive Modeling

Deception in Social Psychological Experiments: Two Misconceptions and a Research Agenda

Social Psychology Quarterly, 2008

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Fast and Frugal Heuristics: Tools of Social Rationality

Social Cognition, 2009

homo economicus cannot help but be puzzled by people's baffling array of social behaviors that co... more homo economicus cannot help but be puzzled by people's baffling array of social behaviors that conflict with economic theory. To accommodate these "deviant" behaviors within the standard view of rationality, defined in terms of probability theory, logic and rational choice theory, economists and psychologists tend to inject some psychology into the rational choice framework. In contrast, we propose to start afresh: We put forth the thesis that humans' social intelligence is not qualitatively different from their nonsocial intelligence, and that important aspects of both kinds of intelligence can be modeled in terms of boundedly rational fast and frugal heuristics. These heuristics can be ecologically and socially rational in that they exploit the structure of physical and social environments as well as evolved capacities to foster performance both in games against nature and in social games.

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The chain of reasoning in the conjunction task

Tapping into the Wisdom of the Crowd--with Confidence

Science, 2012

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