Henry Hale

The George Washington University, Political Science, Faculty Member

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7 Papers
1 Articles

Papers by Henry Hale

Believing Facts in the Fog of War Identity, Media, and Hot Cognition in Ukraine's 2014 Odesa Tragedy

Geopolitics, 2018

How do people form beliefs about the factual content of major events when established geopolitica... more How do people form beliefs about the factual content of major events when established geopolitical orders are violently challenged? Here we address the tragic events of May 2, 2014, in Odesa, Ukraine. There, Euromaidan protest movement supporters and opponents clashed following Russia's annexation of Crimea and the onset of the Donbas conflict, culminating in the worst civilian death toll the city had seen since World War II. Shortly after, we surveyed Ukraine's population about who they thought had actually perpetrated the killings and relate people's answers to alternative narratives (frames) that an original content analysis finds were available to Ukrainian citizens through different media. We find evidence, consistent with theories of hot cognition and motivated reasoning, that the Odesa violence triggered emotional responses linked to ethnic, regional, and partisan identity, which then activated attitudes associated with these identities that, in turn, led people t...

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Henry E. Hale, “Focus on the Fundamentals: Reflections on the State of Ethnic Conflict Studies,” Ethnopolitics, v.16, no.1, January 2017, pp.41-47.

Our failure to come to consensus on the causes of ethnic conflict stems in part from disagreement... more Our failure to come to consensus on the causes of ethnic conflict stems in part from disagreement on the field’s most basic concept, ethnicity. Yet surprisingly little research directly addresses the fundamental question of what ethnicity is, including whether it inherently involves conflictual behavior. New research is increasingly redressing this problem, but its grounding in social psychology often remains weak. Social scientists are urged to consider a sharper focus on the fundamentals, in particular using systematically contextualized experimental methods that blend the best of psychology with the best of sociology, history, anthropology, and political science.

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Henry E. Hale, "25 Years after the USSR: What's Gone Wrong?" Journal of Democracy, v.27, no.3, July 2016, pp.24-35.

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Civilizations Reframed: Towards a Theoretical Upgrade for a Stalled Paradigm

Journal of Civilization Studies / Medeniyet Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2014

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Nikolay Petrov, Maria Lipman, and Henry E. Hale, “Three Dilemmas of Hybrid Regime Governance: Russia from Putin to Putin,” Post-Soviet Affairs, September 2013

This article investigates how hybrid regimes supply governance by examining a series of dilemmas ... more This article investigates how hybrid regimes supply governance by examining a series of dilemmas (involving elections, the mass media, and state institutions) that their rulers face. The authors demonstrate how regime responses to these dilemmas -typically efforts to maintain control while avoiding outright repression and societal backlash -have negative outcomes, including a weakening of formal institutions, proliferation of "substitutions" (e.g., substitutes for institutions), and increasing centralization and personalization of control. Efforts by Russian leaders to disengage society from the sphere of decision-making entail a significant risk of systemic breakdown in unexpected ways. More specifically, given significantly weakened institutions for interest representation and negotiated compromise, policy-making in the Russian system often amounts to the leadership's best guess (ad hoc manual policy adjustments) as to precisely what society will accept and what it will not, with a significant possibility of miscalculation. Three case studies of the policy-making process are presented: the 2005 cash-for-benefits reform, plans for the development of the Khimki Forest, and changes leading up to and following major public protests in 2011-2012.

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Henry Hale, “Did the Internet Break the Political Machine? Moldova’s 2009 ‘Twitter Revolution that Wasn’t,’” Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, v.21, no.3, Fall 2013, pp.481-505

Moldova's April 2009 mass unrest and the subsequent ouster of Vladimir Voronin's Communist Party ... more Moldova's April 2009 mass unrest and the subsequent ouster of Vladimir Voronin's Communist Party have become widely known as the country's "Twitter Revolution," which in turn is often cited as an example of the Internet promoting revolution and democratization in a hybrid regime, a political system combining elements of democracy and authoritarianism. A close analysis of these events, however, shows that social media played a secondary role at best. Instead, Moldova's revolution is best understood as the product of a succession crisis that happened to hit the regime as the country was entering a sharp economic decline linked to the global financial crisis. The findings emphasize the risk of overestimating the Internet's effects on regime change if researchers neglect the hard work of carefully tracing the actual processes by which nondemocratic regimes are ousted.

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Россия 2000-х: Стереоскопический взгляд (книга, Планета, г. М.)

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Articles by Henry Hale

Capturing Ethnicity: The Case Of Ukraine

by Olga Onuch and Henry Hale

Post Soviet Affairs, 2018

Building on past survey-based studies of ethnic identity, we employ the case of Ukraine to demons... more Building on past survey-based studies of ethnic identity, we employ the case of Ukraine to demonstrate the importance of taking seriously the multidimensionality of ethnicity, even in a country that is regarded as deeply divided. Drawing on relational theory, we identify four dimensions of ethnicity that are each important in distinctive ways in Ukraine: individual language preference, language embeddedness, ethnolinguistic identity, and nationality. Using original survey data collected in May 2014, we show that the choice of one over the other can be highly consequential for the conclusions one draws about ethnicity's role in shaping attitudes (e.g., to NATO membership), actions (e.g., participation in the Euromaidan protests), and the anticipation of outgroups' behavior (e.g., expectations of a Russian invasion). Moreover, we call attention to the importance of including the right control variables for precisely interpreting any posited effects of ethnicity, making specific recommendations for future survey research on ethnic identity in Ukraine.

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