MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 1981-10-05. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner
NLHouston AstrosMontreal Expos
ALOakland AthleticsNew York Yankees
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Montreal ExposNLE0.30.06048-30.0-25.030.023.030-2330-23>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%54.9%24.6%12.4%0.0%+34.1%+72.7%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLE0.40.05943-30.0-20.029.023.029-2329-23<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-33.5%-68.8%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.10.05948-34.0-21.025.027.025-2725-27>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%45.1%18.7%8.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4New York MetsNLE-0.80.14162-17.0-34.024.028.024-2824-28<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-2.6%
5Chicago CubsNLE-0.90.13865-15.0-37.023.028.023-2823-28<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.2%-0.8%
6Pittsburgh PiratesNLE-0.20.04656-25.0-23.021.033.021-3321-33<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.5%
NL West
1Houston AstrosNLW0.6-0.16149-28.0-29.033.020.033-2033-20>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%49.9%28.2%15.5%0.0%+10.8%+42.0%
2Cincinnati RedsNLW0.10.06642-35.0-21.031.021.031-2131-21<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-9.2%-7.8%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW0.20.05655-27.0-32.029.023.029-2329-23<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-1.5%-20.8%
4Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.7-0.16347-36.0-21.027.026.027-2627-26>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%50.1%28.6%15.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Atlanta BravesNLW-0.10.05056-25.0-29.025.027.025-2725-27<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-8.7%
6San Diego PadresNLW-0.40.04169-23.0-33.018.036.018-3618-36<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.6%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Milwaukee BrewersALE0.30.06247-31.0-25.031.022.031-2231-22>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%41.9%22.1%10.2%0.0%+48.7%+80.2%
2Detroit TigersALE0.20.06049-31.0-26.029.023.029-2329-23<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-34.1%-50.8%
3Boston Red SoxALE0.40.05949-30.0-26.029.023.029-2329-23<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-10.5%-7.5%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.00.05946-31.0-23.028.023.028-2328-23<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-4.0%-14.2%
5Cleveland IndiansALE-0.10.05251-26.0-24.026.027.026-2726-27<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-4.2%
6New York YankeesALE0.7-0.15948-34.0-22.025.026.025-2625-26>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%58.1%35.9%19.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Toronto Blue JaysALE-1.20.13769-16.0-42.021.027.021-2721-27<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-3.5%
AL West
1Kansas City RoyalsALW-0.20.05053-20.0-30.030.023.030-2330-23>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%45.9%18.0%7.1%+43.7%+31.7%+83.2%
2Oakland AthleticsALW0.20.06445-37.0-23.027.022.027-2227-22>99.9%>99.9%>99.9%54.1%24.0%10.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Minnesota TwinsALW-0.80.14168-17.0-39.024.029.024-2924-29<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-9.0%-6.2%-7.2%
4Texas RangersALW0.6-0.15748-33.0-22.024.026.024-2624-26<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-8.9%-6.5%-18.9%
5Seattle MarinersALW-0.70.14465-21.0-36.023.029.023-2923-29<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-8.4%-6.5%-7.9%
6Chicago White SoxALW0.40.05452-31.0-22.023.030.023-3023-30<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-8.6%-6.1%-19.0%
7California AngelsALW0.20.05159-31.0-29.020.030.020-3020-30<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-8.8%-6.4%-30.1%