Figure 2 Different causal structures and their respective optimal estimates of location of an auditory source. The red curve represents auditory likelihood distribution p(x,|s,) and the blue curve represents the visual likelihood p(xy|sv). Here, for the sake of simplicity, we assume that the prior is uniform (i.e. uninformative), and both auditory and visual likelihoods have a normal distribution. (a) If the audio and visual signals x4 and xy are assumed to have been caused by separate sources (C= 2), the signals should be kept separate. Thus, the best estimate of location of sound is only based on the auditory signal. The optimal estimate of location of sound S$, c-2 is therefore the mean of the auditory likelihood. (b) If the two signals are assumed to have been caused by the same object (C = 1), the two sensory signals should be combined by multiplying the two likelihoods that results in the brown distribution. Therefore, the optimal estimate of the location of sound §, c-1 is the mean of this combination distribution. (c) In general, the observer does not know the causal structure of events in the environment, and only has access to the sensory signals; therefore there is uncertainty about the cause of the signals. In this case, the optimal estimate of the location of sound, Sy, is a weighted average of the estimates corresponding to the two causal structures, the mean of the brown and the mean of the red distributions, each weighted by their respective probability Sa = p(C = 1|xXa,Xv)$aca1 + p(C = 2|xa, Xv) Sa.c=2-