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Figure 2.5. Mediterranean shipwrecks by half-century (n=1,646), graphed according to an equal probability of sinking in any year during the date range for each wreck. (Data collected by Julia Strauss.)  to shorter coastal voyages, entailing a difference in risk at different periods. Russell’s analysis of stone cargoes® suggests that patterns of wrecking are indeed correlated with the relative risks of different sailing routes that may in turn be determined by fashions for particular marbles at different periods—in the case of stone cargoes, wreck numbers peak in the second and third centuries AD when transport of eastern Mediterranean coloured marbles to Italy and the central Mediterranean becomes more common, as these involved the traversing of dangerous waters off southern Italy and Sicily in a way which the transport of Luna marble down the coast of Italy from Carrara to Rome and the Bay of Naples did not. Moreover, if practices of winter sailing became more common at different periods—as there is some evidence that they did under the Roman empire’—then this will have increased the risk of sailing and therefore the likelihood of wreck.   The first of these assumptions might be questioned, if climatic change is felt to have increased the incidence of storms at certain periods; or if changes in shipbuilding technology over time affected (reduced?) the propensity to wreck; or if there were changes in sailing practice and the balance of long-distance open-water voyages

Figure 2 5. Mediterranean shipwrecks by half-century (n=1,646), graphed according to an equal probability of sinking in any year during the date range for each wreck. (Data collected by Julia Strauss.) to shorter coastal voyages, entailing a difference in risk at different periods. Russell’s analysis of stone cargoes® suggests that patterns of wrecking are indeed correlated with the relative risks of different sailing routes that may in turn be determined by fashions for particular marbles at different periods—in the case of stone cargoes, wreck numbers peak in the second and third centuries AD when transport of eastern Mediterranean coloured marbles to Italy and the central Mediterranean becomes more common, as these involved the traversing of dangerous waters off southern Italy and Sicily in a way which the transport of Luna marble down the coast of Italy from Carrara to Rome and the Bay of Naples did not. Moreover, if practices of winter sailing became more common at different periods—as there is some evidence that they did under the Roman empire’—then this will have increased the risk of sailing and therefore the likelihood of wreck. The first of these assumptions might be questioned, if climatic change is felt to have increased the incidence of storms at certain periods; or if changes in shipbuilding technology over time affected (reduced?) the propensity to wreck; or if there were changes in sailing practice and the balance of long-distance open-water voyages