U.S. Presidential Elections 2016

Two days prior to the assassination of right-wing political activist Charlie Kirk, a group of writers at US-based feminist magazine, Jezebel, published an article stating that they 'Paid Some Etsy Witches to Curse Charlie Kirk’. The magazine has since pulled the article, on the advice of their lawyers, so as not to cause any confusion about their stance on political violence of any kind.

Is it ever ethical to wish harm on someone, even if that harm is theoretical or supernatural? What code of ethics are witches bound to? And why do witches have such a complex relationship with right-wing politics?

This thesis examines the ways demographic change will affect presidential elections over the next 25 years. It utilizes a detailed, interactive model to project the electoral effects of demographic growth in every presidential election from 2016 to 2040; the model allows me to simulate how voting rates by demographic groups might be altered by changes in party strategies. The two alternative Republican strategies this model simulates are a "doubling down" on white voters and a "diversified coalition" approach, where Republicans would reach out to minorities to build a coalition better suited to America's growing diversity. The model's results indicate that, with current voting patterns, demographic change (especially Hispanic growth) will keep Democrats in the White House through 2040. The "double down" strategy could lead to Republican victories if the party were able to attract a record share of white votes; the strategy carries significant long--term risks for Republicans. A "diverse coalition" would position the GOP to capitalize on demographic shifts and provide the party with more long--term flexibility. Beyond partisan electoral success and failure, a racially polarizing "double down" strategy has the potential to cause deep and lasting damage to America's democratic values.

The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center conducted an interactive voice response (IVR) telephone survey on January 11, 2018 on the topic of candidate choice in a hypothetical match-up between President Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey. Survey respondents were randomly selected from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s registered voter file. The sample of 722 respondents yields a margin of error of 3.7% with 95% confidence.1

We can often detect from a person’s utterances whether he/she is in favor of or against a given target entity (a product, topic, another person, etc.). Here for the first time we present a dataset of tweets annotated for whether the tweeter is in favor of or against pre-chosen targets of interest―their stance. The targets of interest may or may not be referred to in the tweets, and they may or may not be the target of opinion in the tweets. The data pertains to six targets of interest commonly known and debated in the United States. Apart from stance, the tweets are also annotated for whether the target of interest is the target of opinion in the tweet. The annotations were performed by crowdsourcing. Several techniques were employed to encourage high-quality annotations (for example, providing clear and simple instructions) and to identify and discard poor annotations (for example, using a small set of check questions annotated by the authors). This Stance Dataset, which was subseq...

Silent Electorates examines the critical but often overlooked role of voters who remain publicly disengaged yet decisively shape electoral outcomes. Challenging the conventional focus on vocal partisans and visible movements, this work explores how emotional undercurrents, passive consent, latent discontent, and strategic silences contribute to democratic dynamics. Through theoretical frameworks, case studies, and empirical simulations, it demonstrates that electoral success increasingly depends not on mobilizing the loudest voices, but on influencing, reassuring, or awakening the silent majority. Silent Electorates offers a profound reflection on the invisible mechanisms of persuasion, the strategic management of uncertainty, and the silent negotiations that ultimately determine the fate of modern democracies.

The millennial generation, or people born roughly between 1980 and 2000, have surpassed the Baby Boomers as America’s largest living generation. Therefore, a topic worthy of study is how the opinions and actions of millennials are shaping public policy. This thesis explores the views on terrorism of millennials, specifically the college-age cohort (born between 1995 and 1998), as compared with those of other generations. Two datasets (one collected from a survey of the Appalachian State University student cohort and another from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs) were utilized to support the claim that the millennial generation, specifically the college-age cohort, view terrorism less seriously than non-millennials. The hypothesis was based on an examination of the influence of several factors: the generational effect and socialization, education, and mass media. The data also dispelled a commonly held belief that millennials are generally apathetic as they were found to be just...

Статья посвящена анализу основных направлений политики Республики Корея по обеспечению кибербезопасности после прихода к власти в 2022 г. администрации Юн Сок Ёля. На основе анализа официальных документов РК, включая новую редакцию Стратегии кибербезопасности 2024 г., автор показывает, что основным аспектом «проактивной» политики Юн Сок Ёля является апелляция к фактору северокорейской киберугрозы, что обусловливает необходимость развития наступательного киберпотенциала и превентивного реагирования на киберугрозы. Автор также отмечает, что за последние три года Южная Корея расширила свое участие в международных учениях по кибербезопасности (в том числе под эгидой НАТО) и в целом укрепила сотрудничество в области кибербезопасности со многими зарубежными партнерами. Наконец, важной частью политики по обеспечению кибербезопасности является реформирование процесса управления деятельности государственных и частных организаций сектора кибербезопасности, направленное на увеличение роли Национальной разведывательной службы и создание единого координационного органа — т.н. Национального комитета кибербезопасности. Автор заключает, что в условиях противодействия оппозиции, не согласной с политикой централизации и считающей, что усиление роли Национальной разведывательной службы в вопросах обеспечения национальной кибербезопасности является злоупотреблением властью и ведет к нарушениям прав человека, Юн Сок Ёлю не удалось реализовать главную инициативу своей политики кибербезопасности и принять Общий закон «О кибербезопасности». При этом данная ситуация практически идентична попыткам администрации Пак Кын Хе принять Закон «О кибертерроризме», также подразумевавший расширение сферы полномочий разведки и впоследствии заблокированный оппозиционной фракцией.

In 2016, the Utah Women & Leadership Project (UWLP) released a research snapshot called "Voting and Civic Engagement Among Utah Women," 1 the first in the Utah Women Stats research snapshot series. At the time, despite having a strong history of women's political and civic involvement, Utah had fallen to the bottom of national rankings in terms of women's political participation. 2 That same year, due in part to having a woman presidential candidate from a major party for the first time, women's political engagement was a critically important topic throughout the country. The first day of the Trump administration in 2017, hundreds of thousands of women marched in Washington DC and in numerous other cities across the nation, 3 including Salt Lake City, 4 protesting and seeking to raise awareness of various issues. Since that time, the level of political engagement among women in Utah and the US has stayed relatively high, as has civic engagement, which is a critical element of change for municipalities, counties, and states across the nation. This research snapshot focuses on three key areas: 1) Women's voting participation rates in Utah and the US in recent elections, by various demographic factors; 2) Other issues related to women's voting, policy priorities, and political engagement; and 3) Utah women's levels of civic and community involvement, including volunteer work and associated activities.

Азии возвращение Дональда Трампа в Белый дом восприняли спокойнее, чем в Европе. Союзники и соперники не имеют никаких иллюзий относительно того, что впереди: непредсказуемый президент, чья политика в этом регионе продолжится с того места, на котором он остановился в 2020 году. Поэтому они встревоженно ждут новой вспышки торговых войн, которые будут негативно влиять на их возможность развиваться. В отличие от горячих точек в Европе и на Ближнем Востоке, для которых президентство под лозунгом America First может стать катастрофой, азиатские игроки надеются на продолжение статус-кво, а возможно, и на заключение пары-тройки прагматичных соглашений.

Rational choice theories of voter behavior suggest that factors such as bad weather and a busy schedule should discourage voting in noncompetitive elections. Considering voter turnout in New York City in 2012 – in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Sandy – Viviana Rivera-Burgos, Narayani Lasala-Blanco and Robert Y. Shapiro find that personal motivation to vote can override minor and even major costs of voting, even in noncompetitive elections.

Expanding suffrage presents a critical question about the stability and legitimacy of liberal democracies. In the U.S., noncitizen residents are the latest focus of such (re)enfranchising efforts. Public opinion plays a significant role in the passage of legislation expanding or restricting noncitizen access to local elections. Although elite support for noncitizen suffrage is well-documented, little is known about public opinion toward such noncitizen voter policies. What accounts for voter support for noncitizen electoral participation? We argue that the partisan alignment between noncitizens and U.S. voters is critical for determining U.S. voters' support for noncitizen voting rights. Evidence from two survey experiments suggests that U.S. voters are pragmatic in their enfranchising preferences: voters increase their support for co-partisan enfranchisement but oppose this same policy when considering out-partisans. These dynamics are present among both Republicans and Democra...

The high significance of the Balkan geopolitical knot was clearly expressed in the bipolar era when the main frontier between the two warring blocks passed through the Balkans. Due to the secret ‘Percentages Agreement’ between Great Britain and the USSR in 1944, the Balkans were divided into spheres of influence of the two great powers. Subsequently, London ceded the role of the main source of Western influence in the region to Washington.Of particular interest are the cases of Greece and Bulgaria as border countries that found themselves in different ‘worlds’ and, given the geostrategic importance of their territories, which were the main ideological instruments and conductors of ideas in the Cold war of the hegemons that stood behind. The Truman Doctrine in 1947 and NATO membership in 1952 strengthened and institutionalized Western influence in Greece. Westernization of Greek society in the form of liberalization and democratiza-tion of social relations and consequently its politi...

В центре внимания автора статьи-«Программа консультирования», принятая в Саудовской Аравии в рамках т. н. «мягких мер» для дерадикализации участников исламистских организаций и групп. В контексте масштабных контртеррористических мер, принятых в КСА с 2001 г., автор рассматривает организационное оформление Программы, ее структуру, особенности прохождения каждого этапа, а также условия участия для заключенных. В статье отмечается особая личная роль принца Мухаммеда ибн Найефа Аль Сауда в реализации Программы и организации первого в мире Реабилитационного центра для бывших исламистов и членов их семей. В статье подчеркивается, что ключевое направление Программы-это «идеологическая детоксикация» бывших исламистов через религиозные дебаты, лекции улемов и консультации с психологами. Важное место в реализации программы отводится ее социальному измерению, а именно материальной, финансовой и психологической помощи семьям осужденных, а также вовлечению их в процессы дерадикализации. В статье содержатся статистические показатели, характеризующие количество участников программы, досрочно освобожденных в результате успешного прохождения Программы, и лиц, вернувшихся к террористической деятельности. Автор подчеркивает, что, несмотря на критику Программы со стороны ведущих экспертов, она остается едва ли не единственным инструментом ресоциализации для осужденных исламистов.

This paper examines the contemporary ethical issues surrounding voting rights of three disenfranchised groups in the U.S.: convicted felons, the homeless, and immigrants. Even in modern countries like the U.S., voting and other forms of political participation are skewed toward the elite, those with higher incomes, those who are employed, and those with more education. Low voter turnout presents serious challenges to democratic responsiveness, or the ability of leaders to respond to the needs and demands of citizens. Hence, voting should be encouraged in accord with the common interest. An important conclusion is that allowing all citizensirrespective of their statusto vote would give them a voice in the context of governance. This notion is also associated with distributive justice, a philosophical concept that concentrates on just outcomes and consequences.

Six years after the Crimean crisis and the subsequent phase of confrontational dissociation, the first signs of a softening of the hardened fronts are becoming visible. There is a growing realization that the policies of recent years are producing high costs, but are not offering any solutions. Western states dared to take a first step to reduce the level of tensions in summer 2019 with the decision to keep Russia in the Council of Europe. Nevertheless, caution is advisable as phases of détente in Russian-Western relations have regularly been replaced by relapses into confrontation. Against this background, we are developing a new conflict model that sheds new light on the origins of the high tensions in Russian-Western Relations and points to a way to defuse them. In a nutshell, this model maintains that the high tensions resulted from a failed association project-the famous idea of a pan-European peace project whose contours were developed during the early 1990-and the following dissociation of Russia from this order. However, this model also assumes that a conclusion of the dissociation process creates possibilities for a reduction of tensions. Building on this theoretical assumption, the article explores how the de-facto state of separation achieved in the last years could be transformed into a more codified and stable state of coexistence on the «thinner» basis of norms and institutions.

Objective. This research analyzes the impact of political trust on Native American electoral participation, using survey responses from roughly 1,500 Native Americans living in South Dakota and Nevada.Method. The in‐person survey taking was conducted at locations in Native communities and with the support of tribal leaders, allowing us to overcome many of the methodological issues that have hampered previous studies.Results. We found much higher levels of electoral participation in tribal elections than in non‐tribal elections. Respondents expressed high levels of distrust in nontribal government and voting methods, and this distrust has a surprisingly powerful impact on the decision to participate in nontribal elections.Conclusion. We suggest that historical trauma and ongoing discrimination are the primary causes of distrust among Native Americans and find support for this in the observed differences in levels of trust between South Dakota and Nevada.

Ключевые слова: военная стратегия, угрозы безопасности, модернизация, вооруженные силы США, Трамп Аннотация Предмет. Состояние и перспективы военной политики США в период президентства Д. Трампа. Цели. Определение факторов политического, институционального и стратегического характера, влияющих на формирование военной политики администрации Д. Трампа, выяснение особенностей этой политики. Методология. Анализ доктринальных документов, регламентирующих военную политику США, а также бюджета министерства обороны на 2019 финансовый год и различных экспертных оценок. Методы логического и сравнительного анализа. Результаты. Выявлены сходство и различия в доктринальных основах политики безопасности Б. Обамы и Д. Трампа, основные параметры военной доктрины Д. Трампа, особенности финансирования министерства обороны и перспективы эволюции военной политики США на ближайшую перспективу. Выводы. Администрация Д. Трампа сохранила преемственность в военной стратегии, направленной на установление гегемонии США в мире и контроля морских путей по линии Персидский залив-Индийский океан-Южно-Китайское море-Восточно-Китайское море. Основные отличия этой стратегии от политики администрации Б. Обамы состоят в изменении инструментов достижения стратегических целей. Трампу не удалось преодолеть антироссийский тренд во внешней политике США, однако это связано не с характером противоречий, а в значительной мере с политической конъюнктурой, что оставляет перспективу для нормализации отношений в будущем. США считают основными источниками угроз военной безопасности Россию и Китай, а также страны-«изгои»-Иран и Северную Корею. Д. Трамп отказался от сокращения военного бюджета, начавшегося при Б. Обаме. Бюджет на 2019 финансовый год ориентирован на ускоренную модернизацию вооруженных сил и достижение глобального военного превосходства. Программы модернизации «ядерной триады» ведут к утрате стратегической стабильности в отношениях между США и Россией.

Аннотация. За последние годы отношения в рамках российско-китайско-японского треугольника становятся все более весомым фактором развития политической ситуации в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Япония и Китай, являясь важными частями региональной подсистемы, во многом определяют баланс сил в Восточной Азии. Принимая во внимание специфику отношений между этими странами, наличие неразрешенных конфликтов между ними, Россия стремится поддерживать стабильность в регионе, в том числе участвуя в совместных проектах-экономических, военных, научных и т.п. Конструктивный диалог в треугольнике стран Россия-Китай-Япония отвечает геополитическим целям нашей страны. В рамках сравнительной политики в статье исследуются тенденции российско-китайской и российско-японской взаимосвязей, а также их иерархии в стратегических интересах России. Авторы приходят к выводу о том, что в регионе постепенно формируется «постзападная» модель межстрановых отношений, которая учитывает интересы, особенности социальнополитической и экономической системы входящих в нее государств, а также позволяет сглаживать конфликты между сторонами, способствует мировому развитию в целом. 1 Ключевые слова: внешняя политика России, российско-китайские отношения, российско-японские отношения, китайско-японские отношения.

Since the onset in early 2020 of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, mail-in voting rates in states that have held elections have surged, presumably reflecting the fact that voting by mail is a relatively safe mode of ballot casting during a public health crisis. Matters of health notwithstanding, postal delivery disruptions can place mail-in ballots at risk of rejection on the grounds of lateness. With Maine as a case study, we show that, in the past four general elections, over 10% of vote-by-mail ballots arrived at local elections offices either on Election Day itself or one day earlier. Moreover, of the vote-by-mail ballots most vulnerable to postal delivery disruptions, a greater share of them were cast by unaffiliated voters and Democrats than by Republicans. Our results highlight the fragility of voting by mail in light of concerns about the reliability of the United States Postal Service. While existing research shows that the opportunity to vote by mail is neutral w...

conducted an interactive voice response (IVR) telephone survey on January 11, 2018 on the topic of candidate choice in a hypothetical match-up between President Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey. Survey respondents were randomly selected from the Louisiana Secretary of State's registered voter file. The sample of 722 respondents yields a margin of error of 3.7% with 95% confidence. 1

This article attempts to investigate the factors that have shaped the voting patterns of Black millennials in the United States over the past two presidential election cycles and would likely impact the upcoming 2020 presidential election. It argues that Black millennials, more than their White peers, draw from their life experiences in a United States of America where racism and a criminal justice system that is rigged against them have accelerated their desire to embrace causes that they believe would mushroom into a political agenda that serves their interests. Buoyed by the senseless murders of Africans at the hands of White policemen and the Black Lives Matter movement, Black millennials, unlike their fathers in the civil rights movement, are emboldened to seek justice in their own way, against an unfair system, not only through protests, but also and perhaps more importantly through the ballot box. To that end, this article maintains that Black millennials are inclined to vote more and for the party that would incorporate their agenda into its platform so as to shape the outcome of the next presidential election in favor their preferred candidate.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia undoubtedly lost a great deal of its geopolitical legacy. Yemen was an important axis of this legacy in the Arab Gulf region. Indeed, it was the only country in the Arabian Peninsula, prior to the declaration of unification of northern and southern Yemen in 1990- which had close relations with Moscow. Both the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) and Yemen Arab Republic (Northern Yemen) had relations with the USSR. However, the Russian loss of this legacy was short-lived, and Russia returned to the international scene as an active player in many regional and international issues under the administration of President Vladimir Putin. As the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the United States in the Middle East intensifies, Yemen acquires additional importance in Russian foreign policy. This was evident in Moscow's active diplomatic moves regarding the Yemeni issue recently.

This study highlights Russia's role in and position towards the Yemeni political crisis. The significance of the study derives from the fact that the conflict in Yemen has not yet ended. Although the China-brokered regional reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh last March, with the active assistance of Russia, resulted in what could be described as freezing armed confrontations between the Houthis and legitimate Yemeni government forces. However, without commencing an intra-Yemeni political dialogue based on the three internationally recognized references, it will be difficult to predict the exact outcomes of the crisis in Yemen. Therefore, it can be said that only a resolution based on the legitimacy of restoring the Yemeni state and ending the causes of conflict will be the litmus test that reveals the reality of regional reconciliations in a complex region.

Аннотация. В статье исследуется вопрос значимости религиозной компоненты в современном конфликте Ирана и Саудовской Аравии. Указанные страны представляют шиитское и суннитское течения ислама соответственно. Поэтому в ряде исследований по данному вопросу присутствует мнение о новом витке религиозного противостояния, толчком которому послужили январские события. Однако автор приходит к выводу, что религиозная составляющая не является решающей в данном конфликте. Обобщая мнения ряда западных экспертов, автор делает вывод о том, что религия является только завесой, скрывающей политические интересы как внутреннего, так и международного характера. Ключевые слова: Иран, Саудовская Аравия, ислам, религиозный конфликт, шиитско-суннитские разногласия, региональная политика.

The media and mental health experts have scrutinized former President Donald Trump's personality characteristics even before the 2016 presidential election. Laypersons, psychological experts, and some politicians ascribe a narcissistic personality disorder to Mr. Trump. The present analysis opines that Mr. Trump's pattern of observed behavior in the public arena is consistent with extreme narcissism if not a narcissistic personality disorder. Psychology and psychoanalytic literature discuss Trump's ascension and the dynamics of a mutually reinforcing relationship with his supporters through the lens of large-group regression. Large-group regression can occur when a large group responds to threats, conflicts, or crises affecting its identity by regressing to primitive modes of expression. Group identification with exploitative, narcissistic leadership may supplant individual identity. This article posits that a large segment of American society, particularly those who identify as liberal/progressive/Democrat, has demonstrated countervailing forces or expressions of large-group regression. These manifestations include affective, cognitive, and behavioral features such as fear, anxiety, loathing of Trump and his supporters, splitting and projection, and uncivil behavior toward his supporters. It is contended that an increasingly polarized political environment associated with a pathologically narcissistic former president who is seeking re-election, a divisive and dishonest pattern of behavior by the current president, which has primarily been shielded or minimized by the media and overlooked by the mental health field, may be associated with an intensified large-group regression by those on both the political right and the political left with a potential outcome of increased schism and violence. This paper expands on these issues, recommends further research on large-group regression in democratic societies, and concludes that American society needs more temperate, unifying national leaders that can help to moderate the highly polarized views and intense emotions so that a more stable, tolerant, and democratic society may be maintained.

located in West Lafayette, Indiana. He has over thirty-five years of theoretical and defense industry-based practical experience from four disciplines: software engineering, systems engineering, program management and human resources. Dr. Springer possesses a significant strength in pattern recognition, analyzing and improving organizational systems. He is internationally recognized and has contributed to scholarship more than 300 books, articles, presentations, editorials and reviews on software development methodologies, management, organizational change, and program management. Dr. Springer sits on many university and community boards and advisory committees. He is the recipient of numerous awards and recognitions, including local, regional and national recognitions for leadership in diversity, equity and inclusion.

Статья посвящена развитию двустороннего сотрудничества Франции и Великобритании в ядерной сфере. Автор рассматривает динамику развития этого аспекта двусторонних отношений с момента создания ядерного оружия Великобританией (1952) и Францией (1960) до настоящего времени. Сотрудничество Парижа и Лондона в этой области до сих пор остаётся ключевой темой в повестке дня двусторонних переговоров. Данное взаимодействие происходило в контексте общей ядерной политики НАТО и становления оборонной политики стран Европейского Союза (ЕС). Существенное влияние на развитие партнёрства оказала военная политика США. В середине 2010-х годов франкобританское ядерное взаимодействие стало новым фактором международных отношений в Европейском Союзе. Однако только после подписания Ланкастерских соглашений 2010 г. эксперты заговорили о появлении полноценного «франко-британского тандема». Вопреки прогнозам 1980-х годов данный тандем стал не основой для общей ядерной политики ЕС, а, скорее, оппозицией проектам общих европейских вооруженных сил. Франция и Вели ко британия реализовали его в условиях неудачи проекта ОЕПБО (Общеевропейской политики безопасности и обороны). Франко-британское сотрудничество заполнило образовавшийся вакуум безопасности в ЕС, насытив его новым содержанием. Международно-политические события начала 2010-х годов противопоставили данный проект традиционному франко-германскому союзу в рамках ЕС. Последнее привело к частичному снижению роли Германии в рамках военной политики Евросоюза. Автор приходит к выводу, что в долгосрочной перспективе становление франко-британского тандема скорее ослабляет, нежели усиливает Европейский Союз. За минувшие полвека ЕС был франко-германским проектом: в его основе лежало объединение экономического потенциала Германии и военно-политического потенциала Франции. Переход ведущей роли к франко-британскому тандему автоматически делает ЕС более «атлантическим», то есть завязанным на механизме НАТО и американском военном присутствии в Европе. Происходящий процесс выхода Великобритании из ЕС усиливает эту тенденцию, поскольку Франция остаётся военным союзником страны, покидающей ЕС.

In the aftermath of the 2016 election, many Democrats reported significant increases in stress, depression, and anxiety. Were these increases real, or the product of expressive reporting? Using a unique data set of searches by more than 1 million Bing users before and after the election, we examine the changes in mental-health-related searches among Democrats and Republicans. We then compare these changes to shifts in searches among Spanish-speaking Latinos in the United States. We find that while Democrats may report greater increases in post-election mental distress, their mental health search behavior did not change after the election. On the other hand, Spanish-speaking Latinos had clear, significant, and sustained increases in searches for “depression,” “anxiety,” “therapy,” and antidepressant medications. This suggests that for many Democrats, expressing mental distress after the election was a form of partisan cheerleading.

As part of this research, there was made an analysis of the foreign policy ideas, values and narratives of the Russian Federation distributed in the information sphere based on the theses that were voiced by the President of Russia V. Putin during his speeches in 2022. These ideas were considered through the prism of ideologemes that determine the strategic vector foreign policy of official Moscow. In addition, an assessment is made of the relevance of these ideologemes for the states of the Middle East region in the context of changes in the global transformation of the entire system of international relations and the building of a new polycentric world order. Conclusions are drawn about the interest of the cross-regional actors of the Middle East subsystem in the promotion of the theses and ideologies put forward by Russia and a certain identity and coincidence of the ideological and value spaces of Russia and the countries of the Middle East. Aspects and directions are outlined i...

Battleground state polls are a prominent part of U.S. election news coverage. In this experimental study ( N = 863), we tested how polling results impact how partisans evaluate the news stories through which the polls are reported. Consistent with the hostile media perception, partisans tended to see articles as biased against their candidate, and perceived bias was amplified when their candidate trailed in the poll. Additionally, we found that a majority of news consumers believed the article would encourage their political copartisans in battleground states to vote, but would not impact the voting behavior of their political opponents.

In the previous article, I discussed how the economy backed the losing candidate in both of Nixon's victories, as well as the 1988 Presidential election that "Bush 41" won. In this article, I write about how the economy backed the losing candidate in most of the presidential elections during the 21 st century. I argue that in both of George W. Bush's presidential victories, as well as 2012 and 2016, the economy was not really a salient issue, and its indicators favored the candidate who ultimately lost. First, there are both of Republican, George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 victories. The 2000 Presidential election: Although Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote in the 2000 Presidential election, and barely lost the electoral college, if the economy was truly crucial to determining the outcome, he should have won in a landslide. Because of Clintonomics, the economy was on fire from 1994 through the 2000 Presidential election. It was the most even growth since the 1960's, the best 8-year job growth, low inflation, and a low unemployment rate. It also marked the only time there was a national budget surplus, which was largely due to Clinton raising taxes on the top 1% and large corporations, as well as cutting our bloated military budget. As stated, based on economic indicators, Gore should have demolished George W. Bush; but of course, GWB won. First, the Clinton scandals cost Gore with some white voters. Gore was partly to blame as he tried to stand with Clinton on a great economy, yet distancing himself from Clinton as a person; this made him look opportunistic. Furthermore, Gore ran a terrible campaign. For example, Gore had always been a great debater who crushed Republican Jack Kemp in the V.P. debate on fiscal policy, and who annihilated Ross Perot in the NAFTA debate. However, in the debates with GWB, Gore came across as arrogant and condescending. Also, he was hurt by the presence of Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader who peeled off a sizable portion of leftist Democrats who felt betrayed by the relative centrism of the Clinton-Gore Administration. Furthermore, Gore got hit from this right on gun control and LGBT issues. Lastly, he faced an opponent in GWB who although not very intelligent, had some personal charm, and ran on the appealing platform of "Compassionate Conservatism". So, once again, the state of the national economy did not back the winning candidate.

Аннотация. За последние годы отношения в рамках российско-китайско-японского треугольника становятся все более весомым фактором развития политической ситуации в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Япония и Китай, являясь важными частями региональной подсистемы, во многом определяют баланс сил в Восточной Азии. Принимая во внимание специфику отношений между этими странами, наличие неразрешенных конфликтов между ними, Россия стремится поддерживать стабильность в регионе, в том числе участвуя в совместных проектах-экономических, военных, научных и т.п. Конструктивный диалог в треугольнике стран Россия-Китай-Япония отвечает геополитическим целям нашей страны. В рамках сравнительной политики в статье исследуются тенденции российско-китайской и российско-японской взаимосвязей, а также их иерархии в стратегических интересах России. Авторы приходят к выводу о том, что в регионе постепенно формируется «постзападная» модель межстрановых отношений, которая учитывает интересы, особенности социальнополитической и экономической системы входящих в нее государств, а также позволяет сглаживать конфликты между сторонами, способствует мировому развитию в целом. 1 Ключевые слова: внешняя политика России, российско-китайские отношения, российско-японские отношения, китайско-японские отношения.

Аннотация. В ходе «круглого стола», организатором которого выступили редакция журнала «Вестник Московского государственного областного университета. Серия: История и политические науки» и Московское областное отделение Российского общества политологов, состоялось обсуждение причин и возможных геополитических последствий современного сирийского кризиса. Участники круглого стола сосредоточили свое внимание на вопросах о причинах и основных участниках конфликта, об энергетической и конфессиональной подоплеке событий в Сирии, на адекватности отражения участия России в Сирийском конфликте в мировых средствах массовой информации. В ходе «круглого стола» внимание было уделено запрещенной на территории РФ террористичекой организации ИГИЛ (ИГ), а также рассмотрены в контексте Сирийских событий вопросы цветных революций «Арабской весны» и распада современной системы международной безопасности. В обсуждении приняли участие политологи Н.

Baker v. Carr, 369 U.S. 186 (1962). For an example of contestation of the Baker principle, see Nelson Lund, From Baker v. Carr to Bush v. Gore, and Back, 62 CASE W. RES. L. REV. 947 (2012). The principle was extended to federal elections in Wesberry v. Sanders, 376 U.S. 1 (1964).

В статье представлены результаты практического анализа материала выступления Д. Трампа на сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН. Общей теоретической основой являются исследования в сфере употребления модальных языковых значений в политическом дискурсе. Маркеры модальности в таком дискурсе служат для оказания нужного воздействия на аудиторию, зависящего от личных предпочтений политика. Полученные результаты представлены в виде анализа речевой деятельности президента США Д. Трампа с целью выявления качественно важных элементов формирования надлежащей картины мира у реципиентов.

Ключевые слова: военная стратегия, угрозы безопасности, модернизация, вооруженные силы США, Трамп Аннотация Предмет. Состояние и перспективы военной политики США в период президентства Д. Трампа. Цели. Определение факторов политического, институционального и стратегического характера, влияющих на формирование военной политики администрации Д. Трампа, выяснение особенностей этой политики. Методология. Анализ доктринальных документов, регламентирующих военную политику США, а также бюджета министерства обороны на 2019 финансовый год и различных экспертных оценок. Методы логического и сравнительного анализа. Результаты. Выявлены сходство и различия в доктринальных основах политики безопасности Б. Обамы и Д. Трампа, основные параметры военной доктрины Д. Трампа, особенности финансирования министерства обороны и перспективы эволюции военной политики США на ближайшую перспективу. Выводы. Администрация Д. Трампа сохранила преемственность в военной стратегии, направленной на установление гегемонии США в мире и контроля морских путей по линии Персидский залив-Индийский океан-Южно-Китайское море-Восточно-Китайское море. Основные отличия этой стратегии от политики администрации Б. Обамы состоят в изменении инструментов достижения стратегических целей. Трампу не удалось преодолеть антироссийский тренд во внешней политике США, однако это связано не с характером противоречий, а в значительной мере с политической конъюнктурой, что оставляет перспективу для нормализации отношений в будущем. США считают основными источниками угроз военной безопасности Россию и Китай, а также страны-«изгои»-Иран и Северную Корею. Д. Трамп отказался от сокращения военного бюджета, начавшегося при Б. Обаме. Бюджет на 2019 финансовый год ориентирован на ускоренную модернизацию вооруженных сил и достижение глобального военного превосходства. Программы модернизации «ядерной триады» ведут к утрате стратегической стабильности в отношениях между США и Россией.

This article examines sociodemographic characteristics and political attitudes predicting women voters’ participation in the 2013 general election in Kakamega County, Kenya. Survey data from 372 women voters were collected from this county, the second most populous among the 47 counties in Kenya. Using these data, a two-stage hierarchical multiple regression was conducted with 13 predictors and electoral participation as the dependent variable. In stage one, sociodemographic characteristics accounted for 27 % of the variation in women voters’ electoral participation.  In stage two, sociodemographic characteristics and political attitudes contributed to 47 % of the variance in women voters’ participation in the 2013 polls in Kakamega County. Significant predictors of women voters’ electoral participation were: age, education, income, political knowledge, political interest, and sense of civic duty. The article makes recommendations for enhancing women’s electoral participation throug...

Purpose-The legislative branch of a province is generally in charge of making laws. In addition to this, they are also in charge of enacting programs and policies for the general well-being of the citizens within the province. The general public may not be able to keep track of legislative performances since there is a growing number of legislative-generated documents. This study developed a system that integrated the application of topic modeling in crafting ordinances, resolutions, and policies for the Province of Laguna.

The apparent decline in voter participation in national elections since 1972 is an illusion created by using the Bureau of the Census estimate of the voting-age population as the denominator of the turnout rate. We construct a more accurate estimate of those eligible to vote, from 1948–2000, using government statistical series to adjust for ineligible but included groups, such as noncitizens and felons, and eligible but excluded groups, such as overseas citizens. We show that the ineligible population, not the nonvoting, has been increasing since 1972. During the 1960s the turnout rate trended downward both nationally and outside the South. Although the average turnout rates for presidential and congressional elections are lower since 1972 than during 1948–70, the only pattern since 1972 is an increased turnout rate in southern congressional elections. While the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, the lower turnout rate of young voters accounts for less than one-fourth of reduced ...

"Fake News" gained major attention throughout all types of media such as print media, broadcast news, and the Internet. This paper utilizes data from a survey of Internet users to compare the perceptions of females and males of the responsibility in preventing the spread of fake news. Those held responsible for taking additional control include public, government, and social media sites. Most respondents (91%) think that made up news stories hinder Americans. Also, most Americans agree that all three players should be more responsible-public (76%), government (73%), networking sites (76%). The results of a regression analysis followed by a t-test revealed that there is no statistically significant gender difference among the means. However, females are more likely to attribute the primary responsibility to the social media sites, when males are more likely to perceive the government as the primary responsible.