Time Series Clustering

Clustering in energy markets is a top topic with high significance on expert and intelligent systems. The main impact of is paper is the proposal of a new clustering framework for the automatic classification of electricity customers' loads. An automatic selection of the clustering classification algorithm is also highlighted. Finally, new customers can be assigned to a predefined set of clusters in the classification phase. The computation time of the proposed framework is less than that of previous classification techniques, which enables the processing of a complete electric company sample in a matter of minutes on a personal computer. The high accuracy of the predicted classification results verifies the performance of the clustering technique. This classification phase is of significant assistance in interpreting the results, and the simplicity of the clustering phase is sufficient to demonstrate the quality of the complete mining framework.

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicat...

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicat...

This work proposes a time warp invariant sparse coding and dictionary learning framework for time series clustering, where both input samples and atoms define time series of different lengths that involve variable delays. For that, first an l0 sparse coding problem is formalised and a time warp invariant orthogonal matching pursuit based on a new cosine maximisation time warp operator is proposed. A dictionary learning under time warp is then formalised and a gradient descent solution is developed. Lastly, a time series clustering based on the time warp sparse coding and dictionary learning is presented. The proposed approach is evaluated and compared to major alternative methods on several public datasets, with an application to deezer music data stream clustering.

Theories of emotion regulation posit the existence of individual differences in emotion dynamics. Current multi-subject time-series models account for differences in dynamics across individuals only to a very limited extent. This results in an aggregation that may poorly apply at the individual level. We present the exploratory method of latent class vector-autoregressive modelling (LCVAR), which extends the time-series models to include clustering of individuals with similar dynamic processes. LCVAR can identify individuals with similar emotion dynamics in intensive time-series, which may be of unequal length. The method performs excellently under a range of simulated conditions. The value of identifying clusters in time-series is illustrated using affect measures of 410 individuals, assessed at over 70 time points per individual. LCVAR discerned six clusters of distinct emotion dynamics with regard to diurnal patterns and augmentation and blunting processes between eight emotions.

This paper deals with the clustering of daily wind speed time series based on two features, namelythe daily average wind speed and the corresponding degree of fluctuation. Daily values of the feature pairs are first classified by means of the fuzzy c-means unsupervised clustering algorithm and then results are used to train a supervised MLP neural network classifier. It is shown that associating to a true wind speed time series a time series of classes allows performing some useful statistics. Further, the problem of predicting the class of daily wind speed 1-step ahead is addressed by using both theHidden Markov Models (HMM) and theNon-linear Auto-Regressive (NAR) approaches. The performances of the considered class prediction models are finally assessed in terms of True Positive rate (TPR) and True Negative rate (TNR), also in comparison with the persistent model.

This study aimed to find temporal clusters for several commodity prices using the threshold non-linear autoregressive model. It is expected that the process of determining the commodity groups that are time-dependent will advance the current knowledge about the dynamics of co-moving and coherent prices, and can serve as a basis for multivariate time series analyses. The clustering of commodity prices was examined using the proposed clustering approach based on time series models to incorporate the time varying properties of price series into the clustering scheme. Accordingly, the primary aim in this study was grouping time series according to the similarity between their Data Generating Mechanisms (DGMs) rather than comparing pattern similarities in the time series traces. The approximation to the DGM of each series was accomplished using threshold autoregressive models, which are recognized for their ability to represent nonlinear features in time series, such as abrupt changes, time-irreversibility and regime-shifting behavior. Through the use of the proposed approach, one can determine and monitor the set of co-moving time series variables across the time dimension. Furthermore, generating a time varying commodity price index and sub-indexes can become possible. Consequently, we conducted a simulation study to assess the effectiveness of the proposed clustering approach and the results are presented for both the simulated and real data sets.

This study aimed to find temporal clusters for several commodity prices using the threshold non-linear autoregressive model. It is expected that the process of determining the commodity groups that are time-dependent will advance the current knowledge about the dynamics of co-moving and coherent prices, and can serve as a basis for multivariate time series analyses. The clustering of commodity prices was examined using the proposed clustering approach based on time series models to incorporate the time varying properties of price series into the clustering scheme. Accordingly, the primary aim in this study was grouping time series according to the similarity between their Data Generating Mechanisms (DGMs) rather than comparing pattern similarities in the time series traces. The approximation to the DGM of each series was accomplished using threshold autoregressive models, which are recognized for their ability to represent nonlinear features in time series, such as abrupt changes, time-irreversibility and regime-shifting behavior. Through the use of the proposed approach, one can determine and monitor the set of co-moving time series variables across the time dimension. Furthermore, generating a time varying commodity price index and sub-indexes can become possible. Consequently, we conducted a simulation study to assess the effectiveness of the proposed clustering approach and the results are presented for both the simulated and real data sets.

During the past decades, electronic commerce, especially in the business-to-consumer (B2C) context, has emerged as a popular research topic in information systems (IS). However, this research has traditionally been dominated by the consumer focus instead of the business focus of online stores. In this explorative study, we aim to address this gap in prior research by identifying the most typical sales patterns of online stores operating in the B2C context. By segmenting the monthly sales time series of 399 online stores with time series clustering, we are able to identify four approximately equally sized segments, of which two are characterised by a clear upward or downward trend in the sales and two are characterised by strong seasonal sales variation. We also investigate the potential segment differences in terms of several key business and technical parameters as well as discuss more broadly the applicability of time series clustering to IS.

Clustering in energy markets is a top topic with high significance on expert and intelligent systems. The main impact of is paper is the proposal of a new clustering framework for the automatic classification of electricity customers' loads. An automatic selection of the clustering classification algorithm is also highlighted. Finally, new customers can be assigned to a predefined set of clusters in the classification phase. The computation time of the proposed framework is less than that of previous classification techniques, which enables the processing of a complete electric company sample in a matter of minutes on a personal computer. The high accuracy of the predicted classification results verifies the performance of the clustering technique. This classification phase is of significant assistance in interpreting the results, and the simplicity of the clustering phase is sufficient to demonstrate the quality of the complete mining framework.

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicat...

Two distances based on permutations are considered to measure the similarity of two time series according to their strength of dependency. The distance measures are used together with different linkages to get hierarchical clustering methods of time series by dependency. We apply these distances to both simulated theoretical and real data series. For simulated time series the distances show good clustering results, both in the case of linear and non-linear dependencies. The effect of the embedding dimension and the linkage method are also analyzed. Finally, several real data series are properly clustered using the proposed method.

Accurate information about the actual behavior of electricity users is essential to the electricity suppliers in order to ensure efficient decisions in planning pricing, e.g., designing tariffs and load planning. Load profiles of customers is a straightforward source for such data, however it should be analyzed to extract relevant information. Most of the existing techniques are tested with small data sets or over short periods, which does not allow to investigate seasonality influence. We present a new methodology for the grouping of electricity customers based on the similarities of their (hourly) consumption patterns. Approach is based on the periodicity analysis and well-known clustering technique-K-means, which is applied for identification for separate users load profiles and clustering of load profiles. Values of model parameter are selected using adequacy measures. Finally, the results obtained by this methodology with a data set of 3753 electricity customers are presented, and future plans discussed.

We propose and study a new frequency-domain procedure for characterizing and comparing large sets of long time series. Instead of using all the information available from data, which would be computationally very expensive, we propose some regularization rules in order to select and summarize the most relevant information for clustering purposes. Essentially, we suggest to use a fragmented periodogram computed around the driving cyclical components of interest and to compare the various estimates. This procedure is computationally simple, but able to condense relevant information of the time series. A simulation exercise shows that the smoothed fragmented periodogram works in general better than the non-smoothed one and not worse than the complete periodogram for medium to large sample sizes. We illustrate this procedure in a study of the evolution of several stock markets indices. We further show the effect of recent financial crises over these indices behaviour.

We propose and study a new frequency-domain procedure for characterizing and comparing large sets of long time series. Instead of using all the information available from data, which would be computationally very expensive, we propose some regularization rules in order to select and summarize the most relevant information for clustering purposes. Essentially, we suggest to use a fragmented periodogram computed around the driving cyclical components of interest and to compare the various estimates. This procedure is computationally simple, but able to condense relevant information of the time series. A simulation exercise shows that the smoothed fragmented periodogram works in general better than the non-smoothed one and not worse than the complete periodogram for medium to large sample sizes. We illustrate this procedure in a study of the evolution of several stock markets indices. We further show the effect of recent financial crises over these indices behaviour.

We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicat...

Modern day science presents many challenges to data analysts. Advances in data collection provide very large (number of observations and number of dimensions) data sets. In many areas of data analysis an informative task is to find natural separations of data into homogeneous groups, i.e. clusters. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of hierarchical clustering in situations where both sample size and dimension grow to infinity. We derive explicit signal vs noise boundaries between different types of clustering behaviors. We also show that the clustering behavior within the boundaries is the same across a wide spectrum of asymptotic settings.

Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values is statistically consistent. Then, we also give a first empirical answer to the much debated question: How long should the time series be? If too short, the clusters found can be spurious; if too long, dynamics can be smoothed out.

We present in this paper an empirical framework motivated by the practitioner point of view on stability. The goal is to both assess clustering validity and yield market insights by providing through the data perturbations we propose a multi-view of the assets' clustering behaviour.
The perturbation framework is illustrated on an extensive credit default swap time series database available online at \url{www.datagrapple.com}.