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Natural Gas Pricing

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lightbulbAbout this topic
Natural gas pricing refers to the determination of the market value of natural gas, influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, production costs, transportation expenses, and regulatory frameworks. It encompasses various pricing mechanisms, including spot prices, futures contracts, and long-term agreements, reflecting the economic conditions of the energy market.
lightbulbAbout this topic
Natural gas pricing refers to the determination of the market value of natural gas, influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, production costs, transportation expenses, and regulatory frameworks. It encompasses various pricing mechanisms, including spot prices, futures contracts, and long-term agreements, reflecting the economic conditions of the energy market.

Key research themes

1. How do market fundamentals, competition, and geopolitical factors influence natural gas price dynamics in regional and international markets?

This research theme investigates the determinants of natural gas pricing behavior, emphasizing the roles of supply-demand fundamentals, market structure, competition intensity, substitution with other fuels, and geopolitical disruptions. Understanding these drivers is critical for market participants and policymakers to manage price volatility, ensure security of supply, and design effective regulation in liberalized or transitional energy markets.

Key finding: Using panel econometric VAR-VECM models across 34 European spatial units (2007–2022), identifies a significant asymmetric short-run impact of LNG imports (notably from Nigeria) on European natural gas prices, emphasizing the... Read more
Key finding: Estimates average long-run natural gas price elasticity of approximately -1.25 and income elasticity around +1 or higher across 44 countries (1978-2011), using instrumental variable regressions with natural gas reserves as... Read more
by Charles Mason and 
1 more
Key finding: Provides strong empirical evidence for jump components in daily natural gas spot price returns at the Henry Hub (US) and the UK National Balancing Point, with jumps playing a more prominent role in the UK market.... Read more
Key finding: Using time-varying coefficient models, finds that while natural gas prices exhibit long-term adjustment to crude oil prices, the short-term sensitivity varies substantially with oil price levels and market conditions. Under... Read more

2. What are effective models and strategies for equitable natural gas allocation and associated gas flaring mitigation at regional and national levels?

This research theme explores quantitative and theoretical frameworks for the optimal distribution of limited natural gas supplies, especially under supply shortages or flaring challenges. The focus is on game-theoretic bargaining models, structured optimization approaches, and policy frameworks that ensure fair allocation among competing regional/provincial stakeholders while addressing environmental and economic costs of associated gas flaring.

Key finding: Develops a Nash bargaining solution-based model to distribute scarce natural gas equitably among Pakistan’s provinces under shortage conditions, using stakeholders' demand characteristics and bargaining weights. Demonstrates... Read more
Key finding: Introduces a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model for Nigeria to optimize upstream decisions for associated gas utilization aiming at zero flaring. Results indicate that a minimum gas price of $4.4/Mscf and $22B... Read more
Key finding: Employs a vector error correction model (VECM) to show how variations in LNG prices influence electricity wholesale prices in Greece, where fossil fuels including natural gas are substitutes and renewables reduce fossil fuel... Read more
Key finding: Quantifies the economic trade-offs of exploiting Marcellus shale gas under environmental protection constraints within the Delaware Basin. It identifies the critical value comparisons between nonrenewable shale gas... Read more

3. How do regulatory frameworks and market liberalization impact natural gas price controls and market integration within the European Union and beyond?

This theme focuses on the evolution of natural gas market liberalization, associated regulatory reforms, and their effects on price convergence, market functioning, and consumer protection. Analysis includes the role of legislation packages, agency developments, and price control mechanisms, as well as case studies examining successes and challenges in integrating national markets into a coherent regional energy market.

Key finding: Provides a comprehensive chronology of EU gas market liberalization, covering the First through Fifth Energy Packages and associated regulations. Examines the impact of regulatory advances on market transparency, consumer... Read more
Key finding: Using Eurostat data (2007-2020) for 15 Eastern European countries, demonstrates positive but heterogeneous convergence of natural gas prices across consumer groups excluding taxes. Finds that large households exhibit stronger... Read more
Key finding: Presents a detailed theoretical exposition and global case studies on natural gas price regulation frameworks, emphasizing the trade-offs between liberalization and regulation for market efficiency and equitable outcomes. The... Read more

All papers in Natural Gas Pricing

The Comission Federal de Electricidad (CFE), Mexico's national electric utility, generates, transmits and distributes electricity to the whole country. During the oil boom of the 1970s, CFE was able to make sufficient investments in the... more
Background: A cost reflective tariff eliminates the need for government subsidies to make up the difference between the prevailing tariff and the actual cost of supply by reflecting the true cost of producing power. However, in order to... more
Electric energy which is placed on top of the energy stratification and its uses at home, industry, agriculture, and in transport is indispensable. Tariffs are ways in which electric utilities derive their income from customers through... more
This study investigates stakeholders' perception of the sustainability of Nigeria's MYTO pricing methodology vis-à-vis government's electricity efficiency objectives. Using a five-point Likert questionnaire, data was collected and... more
Background: A cost reflective tariff eliminates the need for government subsidies to make up the difference between the prevailing tariff and the actual cost of supply by reflecting the true cost of producing power. However, in order to... more
Petroleum Supply Chain is one of the most important and sophisticated managing missions in both developing and developed countries. Nowadays, environmental pollution is another critical factor in designing the petroleum supply chain. This... more
Background: A cost reflective tariff eliminates the need for government subsidies to make up the difference between the prevailing tariff and the actual cost of supply by reflecting the true cost of producing power. However, in order to... more
The oil sector has dictated the pace and structure of growth of the Nigerian economy since 1970. Oil contributed over US$391.6 billion to government revenue between 1970 and 2005. This accounted for 77.1 per cent of total government... more
Natural Gas Price Controls starts with an estimation of the benefits of price liberalisation vs. regulation, based on the evolution of European markets. However, the focus of the book is on existing price controls that still prevail... more
A population’s standard of living has a special and important place in the concept of human development. Ultimately, the higher the standard of living of a population, the greater the chance for real human development, other things being... more
This study investigates the impact of the fuel subsidy removal on the socio-economic development in Nigeria. Using a price pass-through model, the study employed the error correction model to investigate both the short and long run impact... more
This study investigates the impact of the fuel subsidy removal on the socio-economic development in Nigeria. Using a price pass-through model, the study employed the error correction model to investigate both the short and long run impact... more
In Hungary, regulated energy prices fell by a quarter in 2013–2014 due to a state intervention. The objective of this article is to measure the effects of this change on the Hungarian residential energy consumption and assess the... more
This article investigates the long run relationship between energy consumption and the economic growth in Nigeria from the period of 1985 to 2010. However, the study make use of secondary data analysis of ordinary least square method of... more
The estimated billing system for electricity was introduced in Nigeria by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) in 2012 for billing customers without meters or with faulty or inaccessible meters. But instead of following... more
The Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) is the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) pricing framework for determining the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) pricing model. One of the objectives of the NERC's MYTO pricing... more
The Nigerian power sector reform is necessitated by the chronically poor performance of the sector and has as its compass the 2005 Electric Power Sector Reform Act and the Road Map for Power Sector Reform 2010. Implementing the reform has... more
The Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) is the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) pricing framework for determining the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) pricing model. One of the objectives of the NERC's MYTO pricing... more
ABSTRACT Constant power supply is the hallmark of a developed economy. Any nation whose energy need is epileptic in supply prolongs her development and risks losing potential investors. Nigeria, a country of over 160 million people has... more
Adequate power supply constitutes the nucleus of operations and subsequently the engine of growth for all sectors of the economy. Despite the abundance of electricity generation sources in Nigeria, electricity distribution network and... more
2 According to the World Bank, the transition from publicly owned to largely owned power sector did not bring the expected outcomes. See the Power Sector Recovery Program document. Report No.124328. 3 Some of the countries visited were... more
The present social and economic conditions in Slovakia participate to the behaviour diff erentiation of individual households on the consumer market. It is possible to speak about changes both in the posi ti ve and negative sense of word.... more
Distribution companies in Nigeria since privatization have been repeatedly faced with unappetizing menus to choose between the rock and a hard place on serving their customers efficiently. Customers on the other hand have been displeased... more
The significance of natural gas appears as a competitive substitute for crude oil. Therefore, for many years, fuel switching between natural gas and crude oil made natural gas prices closely aligned with crude oil. On the other hand, the... more
The Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) has witnessed historic reforms in the recent years.
The Study Examined The Public Private Partnership Policy In Nigeria As A Panacea To The Development And Management Of Electricity In Nigeria. The Study Was Descriptive And It Is Aimed At Evolving An Alternative Policy That Will Ensure The... more
As Turkey and Gazprom reach a deal on part of a strategically important Black Sea pipeline, Turkish state entity Botaş is reportedly to receive a US$1 billion payment from the Russian company to settle a gas-pricing dispute that was being... more
As a result of the neoliberal economic philosophical doctrines that spread in the 1980s, decreasing attention was paid by researchers and other experts in the European Union to developments in households' financial position and... more
Despite the abundant forms of primary energy available in Nigeria, the country has grappled with various energy shortage and erratic power supply for decades. Power can be out for more than 6 hours a day and homes rely on diesel... more
ABSTRACT This study is a holistic analysis of the power sector. Taking a look at the natural gas and the electricity sector, it attempts to understand the events and issues influencing the demand and supply and by extension the pricing of... more
Access to electricity is vital for economic development. Developing countries around the world have made various effort to improve electrcity access. In order to improve electrcity access, the obstacles need to be properly identified.... more
Nigeria has been contributing significantly towards economic development efforts of the country for the past two decades. Natural gas, whose production in association with crude oil, started around the same time, is, however, yet to play... more
Nigeria’s Natural Gas Reserves has determined by The Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) is estimated to be about 600 trillion cubic feet (tcf). Nigeria tops the largest gas reserve in Africa and assumes the 8th position in the world.... more
Integrated resource planning (IRP) for electric utilities involves management planning of supply as well as demand at the same time. In this paper, we develop a mixed integer linear programming model for IRP. The two key distinctions of... more
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