Madden Julian Oscillation

Two univariate indices of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are developed to track the convective component of the MJO while taking into account the seasonal cycle. These are compared with the all-season Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon derived from a multivariate EOF of circulation and OLR. The gross features of the OLR and circulation of composite MJOs are similar regardless of the index, although RMM is characterized by stronger circulation. Diversity in the amplitude and phase of individual MJO events between the indices is much more evident; this is demonstrated using examples from the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign and the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) virtual campaign.

Easterly waves (EWs) are prominent features of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), found in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, where they commonly serve as precursors to hurricanes over both basins. A large proportion of Atlantic EWs are known to form over Africa, but the origin of EWs over the Caribbean and east Pacific in particular has not been established in detail. In this study reanalyses are used to examine the coherence of the large-scale wave signatures and to obtain track statistics and energy conversion terms for EWs across this region. Regression analysis demonstrates that some EW kinematic structures readily propagate between the Atlantic and east Pacific, with the highest correlations observed across Costa Rica and Panama. Track statistics are consistent with this analysis and suggest that some individual waves are maintained as they pass from the Atlantic into the east Pacific, whereas others are generated locally in the Caribbean and east Pacific. Vortex anomalies associated with the waves are observed on the leeward side of the Sierra Madre, propagating northwestward along the coast, consistent with previous modeling studies of the interactions between zonal flow and EWs with model topography similar to the Sierra Madre. An energetics analysis additionally indicates that the Caribbean low-level jet and its extension into the east Pacific-known as the Papagayo jet-are a source of energy for EWs in the region. Two case studies support these statistics, as well as demonstrate the modulation of EW track and storm development location by the MJO.

The interaction between high-frequency transient disturbances and convection, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), is investigated using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and satellite outgoing longwave radiation data for 15 northern winters. During the phase of the MJO with enhanced convection over the East Indian Ocean and Indonesia, and suppressed convection over the South Pacific convergence zone, both the Asian-Pacific jet and the region of upper-tropospheric tropical easterlies over the warm pool are displaced westward. These changes in the basic state lead to a weaker or ''leakier'' waveguide in the Asian-Pacific jet, with a westwarddisplaced ''forbidden'' region of tropical easterlies, such that high-frequency transient waves propagate equatorward into the deep Tropics over the central Pacific near the date line. As these waves induce convection in the region of ascent and reduced static stability ahead of the upper-level cyclonic disturbances, there is an enhancement of high-frequency convective variability over the central Pacific intertropical convergence zone during this phase of the MJO. This enhanced high-frequency convective variability appears to project back onto intraseasonal timescales and forms an integral part of the slowly varying diabatic heating field of the MJO. In the opposite phase of the MJO, the Asian-Pacific jet is extended eastward and there is an almost continuous waveguide across the Pacific. Together with the expanded forbidden region of tropical easterlies over the warm pool, this leads to a more zonal propagation of high-frequency transients along the waveguide with less equatorward propagation, and hence reduced high-frequency convective variability over the tropical central Pacific. There is also evidence of high-frequency waves propagating into the Indian Ocean region at the beginning of the MJO cycle, which may be important in the initiation of intraseasonal convective anomalies there. * Current affiliation: CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology,

Equatorial Kelvin waves generated by westerly wind anomalies over the central Indian Ocean propagate eastward to Indonesia, where they can enter the outflow passages of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and affect transports of mass and heat. This has potential consequences for local thermohaline properties and may also be related to larger scale climate modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Moorings were deployed in Lombok and Ombai Straits, two ITF exit passages, as part of the three-year International Nusantara STratification ANd Transport (INSTANT) program. These data provide the first comprehensive, full-depth, high-resolution measurements of velocity and temperature in the exit passages and have allowed us to thoroughly characterize the properties of Kelvin waves in the throughflow region. Here, we discuss the relationship between ITF Kelvin waves and the structure and timing of the wind forcing over the Indian Ocean. Specifically, we focus on the partitioning of Kelvin wave energy between the ITF outflow passages, mode-1 versus mode-2 vertical structure of the Kelvin waves, and the connection between wind forcing, MJO, IOD, and monsoon dynamics.

The meteorological conditions of hurricanes passing near Puerto Rico (18N, 68W) are analyzed using composite daily reanalysis and satellite data. When an intense hurricane is present, the regional circulation is dominated by upper easterly flow over the Caribbean and central Atlantic and a surge of low-level westerly anomalies across the tropics. Warm SST anomalies extend along the coast of Venezuela, doubling the convective energy available to Caribbean hurricanes. Intensifying hurricanes tend to propagate westward with an atmospheric ridge over the Gulf Stream, in an environment with aerosol optical depth <0.6. Hurricanes form and strengthen in the east-shear phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Sinking motions and dry air appear in an anti-cyclonic gyre behind intensifying hurricanes. Numerical model 48-h forecasts of Caribbean hurricane tracks are analyzed over the period 2000-2010. A "slow right" bias is found east of Puerto Rico in comparison with observed. 1994) for hurricanes in our "target" area .

Composite analysis is applied to study the dynamical ocean response to Madden-Julian (MJ) events, measured by anomalies in sea surface height from the merged TOPEX/Poseidon-European Remote Sensing satellite altimetry dataset. In each of the tropical ocean basins, significant equatorial waves are forced, which are shown to modulate the sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.2-0.3 • C in the absence of strong surface heat fluxes. In the Indian Ocean there is a clear dynamical response which may play a significant role in generating later MJ events. Surface westerly winds, associated with the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), force an eastward-propagating oceanic downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, which, on reaching the eastern boundary at Sumatra, forces reflected downwelling equatorial Rossby waves and coastal Kelvin waves. The coastal Kelvin waves propagate southwards towards northern Australia and northwards into the Bay of Bengal, and will be important for local physical, chemical and biological processes. The equatorial Rossby waves propagate westward across the Indian Ocean, arriving in the western Indian Ocean approximately 80-100 days after the initial Kelvin wave was generated. The arrival of these waves generates positive SST anomalies which leads to convection and may trigger the next-but-one MJ event, or amplify the low-frequency tail of the MJO. This constitutes a coupled feedback mechanism from the ocean dynamics onto the MJO, somewhat similar to the delayed oscillator mechanism for the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

This is Part II of a two-part review about climate and climate variability focused on the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) and the Caribbean Sea (CS). Both parts are aimed at providing oceanographers, marine biologists, and other ocean scientists, a guiding base for ocean-atmosphere interaction processes affecting the CS, the ETP, and the waters of Isla del Coco. Isla del Coco National Park is a Costa Rican World Heritage site. Part I analyzed the mean fields for both basins and a larger region covering 25º S-35º N, 20º W-130º W. Here we focus on a smaller area (65º W-95º W, 0º-20º N), as a complement to Part 1. Incoming solar radiation and surface energy fluxes reveal the complex nature of the ETP and CS for convective activity and precipitation on seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. Both regions are relevant as sources of evaporation and the associated moisture transport processes. The American Monsoon System influences the climate and climate variability of the ETP and CS, however, the precise way systems affect regional precipitation and transport of moisture, within the Intra Americas Sea (IAS) are not clear. Although the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) is known to act as a conveyor belt for moisture transport, intraseasonal and seasonal modes of the CLLJ and their interactions with other IAS systems, have to be further investigated. Trans-isthmic jets, exert a variable seasonal wind stress force over the ocean surface co-generating regions of great marine productivity. Isolated convection, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the hurricane season, the MidSummer Drought, the seasonal and intraseasonal behavior of low-level jets and their interactions with transients, and the southward incursion of cold fronts contribute to regional seasonal precipitation. Many large-scale systems, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO, also influence the variability of precipitation by modulating regional features associated with convection and precipitation. Monthly tropical storm (TS) activity in the CS and ETP basins is restricted to the period May-November, with very few cases in December. The CS presents TS peak activity during August, as well as for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, in contrast to the ETP that shows the same features during September. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (Suppl. 1): S23-S57. Epub 2016 Febrary 01.

The influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on synoptic-scale waves, important precursors to tropical cyclones and tropical cyclogenesis, is investigated using a regional model of the eastern North Pacific basin. Cyclogenesis frequency is evaluated with respect to the MJO using a combination of the regional model and the archive best-track data. The statistics of the regional model compare well to the data and suggest that the MJO predominantly deters cyclogenesis during the suppressed phase rather than enhances it during the active phase when compared to neutral conditions. Synoptic-scale variability of cloudiness and eddy kinetic energy and analysis of vortex track statistics show a consistent enhancement of wave strength during the active phases of the MJO supported by both barotropic energetics and tropospheric moisture availability. Vertical wind shear, of critical importance to cyclone development, also exhibits strong variability associated with the phase of the MJO but, contrary to synoptic activity and moisture, results in unfavorable conditions for cyclogenesis during the active phase of the MJO in the region. The result is for the MJO to enhance cyclogenesis frequency relative to neutral conditions during the early active phase but otherwise to result in suppressed activity. In addition to the basinwide longitudinal structure, the local MJO exhibits a distinct north-south structure not apparent in the global pattern but in agreement with recent studies of tropical eastern North Pacific subseasonal variability.

The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land–surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using 20-years of outgoing long-wave radiation and National Centers for Environmental PredictiodNational Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data. Two mechanisms for the eastward propagation and regeneration of the convective anomalies are suggested.

The tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) shows distinct variability centers and propagation patterns between boreal winter and summer. To accurately represent the state of the ISO at any particular time of a year, a bimodal ISO index was developed. It consists of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mode with predominant eastward propagation along the equator and Boreal Summer ISO (BSISO) mode with prominent northward propagation and large variability in off-equatorial monsoon trough regions. The spatial–temporal patterns of the MJO and BSISO modes are identified with the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis of 31 years (1979–2009) OLR data for the December–February and June–August period, respectively. The dominant mode of the ISO at any given time can be judged by the proportions of the OLR anomalies projected onto the two modes. The bimodal ISO index provides objective and quantitative measures on the annual and interannual variations of the predominant ISO modes. It is shown that from December to April the MJO mode dominates while from June to October the BSISO mode dominates. May and November are transitional months when the predominant mode changes from one to the other. It is also shown that the fractional variance reconstructed based on the bimodal index is significantly higher than the counterpart reconstructed based on the Wheeler and Hendon’s index. The bimodal ISO index provides a reliable real time monitoring skill, too. The method and results provide critical information in assessing models’ performance to reproduce the ISO and developing further research on predictability of the ISO and are also useful for a variety of scientific and practical purposes.

The local climate and island-scale circulation around New Caledonia is investigated using a 4-km resolution mesoscale atmospheric model in concert with QuikSCAT scatterometer winds at 12.5-km resolution. The mesoscale atmospheric weather regimes are first examined through an objective classification applied to the remote sensed winds for nine warm seasons from 1999 to 2008. Four main weather types are identified. Their corresponding synoptic-scale circulation reveals that they are strongly discernable through the position and intensity of the South Pacific Convergence zone (SPCZ), the mid-latitude systems, and the subtropical jet stream. The link between the mesoscale weather types and the two dominant large-scale modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is also described in terms of their influence on the occurrence of each weather type. It shows that their occurrence is significantly controlled by both MJO and ENSO, through modulation of the SPCZ. The large-scale modes of variability are scaled down to island-scale circulation through synoptic and mesoscale regimes, and are eventually modulated by orographic and thermal control. The island-scale circulation is inferred in this study by applying the compositing method to both observed and simulated winds. Their comparison clearly shows the ability of the mesoscale model to capture the local circulation and its spatial and temporal variability. A scaling analysis conducted from the simulated atmospheric parameters shows that the mountain range of New Caledonia is hydrodynamically steep. As a result of trade-wind obstruction by the mountainous island, the flow is shaped by coastally trapped mesoscale responses, i.e., blocking, flow splitting and corner winds, with a spatial scale of about 150 km. Two main obstacles, Mont Panié and Mont Humboldt play a significant role on the dynamical behavior of the low-level flow, while the diurnal heating cycle in the vicinity of the Mainland strongly modulates the local circulation. Moreover, nocturnal drainage flow of cold air occurs on the leeside slope of Mont Humboldt and inhibits vertical mixing over the ocean, which results in a deceleration of surface winds.

This study examines the forecast performance of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in recent dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) experiments conducted with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. The present study extends earlier work by comparing prediction skill of the northern winter ISO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) between the current and earlier experiments. Prediction skill for the northern summer ISO is also investigated. Since the boreal summer ISO exhibits northward propagation as well as eastward propagation along the equator, forecast skill for both components is computed. For the 5-year period from 1 January, 1998 through 31 December, 2002, 30-day forecasts were made once a day. Compared to the previous DERF experiment, the current model has shown some improvements in forecasting the ISO during winter season so that the skillful forecasts (anomaly correlation>0.6) for upper-level zonal wind anomaly extend from the previous shorter-than 5 days out to 7 days lead-time. A similar level of skill is seen for both northward and eastward propagation components during the summer season as in the winter case. Results also show that forecasts from extreme initial states are more skillful than those from null phases for both seasons, extending the skillful range by 3-6 days. For strong ISO

Fifteen years (1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001) of rain gauge-based data are used to describe the intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil and its associated dynamical structure. Wavelet analysis performed on rainfall time series showed significant peaks centered roughly in periods of 30-70 days, particularly in the eastern southeastern Amazon and northern northeast Brazil. A significant enhancement of precipitation with maximum anomalies in a northeastward oriented band over tropical Brazil is evidenced from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 30-70-day filtered rainfall anomalies during rainy season (January to May). Lagged/lead composites revealed that, on a global scale, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main atmospheric-mechanism modulator of the pluviometric variations on intraseasonal timescale in the eastern Amazon and northeast Brazil. A coherent northward expansion of rainfall across tropical Brazil is evident during the passage of MJO over South America. Regionally, the establishment of a quasi-stationary deep convection band triggered by the simultaneous manifestation of south Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) explains the intensified rainfall over these regions. Such regional mechanisms are dynamically embedded within the eastward-propagating MJO-related large-scale convective envelope along tropical South America/the Atlantic Ocean. These features occur in association with a significant intraseasonal evolution of the lower-level wind and seasurface temperature (SST) patterns, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, including a coherent dynamical connection with atmospheric circulation, deep convective activity over South America and rainfall over tropical Brazil.

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main component of intraseasonal variability of the tropical convection, with clear climatic impacts at an almost-global scale. Based on satellite observations, it is shown that there are two types of austral-summer MJO events (broadly defined as 30-120 days convective variability with eastward propagation of about 5 m/s). Equatorial MJO events have a period of 30-50 days and tend to be symmetric about the equator, whereas MJO events centered near 8°S tend to have a longer period of 55-100 days. The lowerfrequency variability is associated with a strong upperocean response, having a clear signature in both sea surface temperature and its diurnal cycle. These two MJO types have different interannual variations, and are modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Following a negative IOD event, the lower-frequency southern MJO variability increases, while the higher-frequency equatorial MJO strongly diminishes. We propose two possible explanations for this change in properties of the MJO. One possibility is that changes in the background atmospheric circulation after an IOD favour the development of the low-frequency MJO. The other possibility is that the shallower thermocline ridge and mixed layer depth, by enhancing SST intraseasonal variability and thus ocean-atmosphere coupling in the southwest Indian Ocean (the breeding ground of southern MJO onset), favour the lower-frequency southern MJO variability.

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produced by a mesoscale model is investigated using standardized statistical diagnostics. Results show that upper- and lower-level zonal winds display the correct MJO structure, phase speed (8 m s−1) and space–time power spectrum. However, the simulated free atmosphere moisture, outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation do not exhibit any clear MJO signal. Yet, the boundary layer moisture, moist static energy and atmospheric instability, measured using a moist static energy instability index, have clear MJO signals. A significant finding is the ability of the model to simulate a realistic MJO phase speed in the winds without reproducing the MJO wind-convection coupling or a realistic propagation in the free atmosphere water vapor. This study suggests that the convergence of boundary layer moisture and the discharge and recharge of the moist static energy and atmospheric instability may be responsible for controlling the speed of propagation of the MJO circulation.

Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June-September) and Northeast (October-December) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e., outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10 % over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January-April climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Niños being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of -0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Niñas / cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Niños. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: 1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; 2) impact of ENSOforced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the length of the observational record does not allow distinguishing between these two mechanisms in a statistically significant manner.

While tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, in particular TC genesis, remains very challenging, accurate prediction of TCs is critical for timely preparedness and mitigation. Using a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the authors studied the predictability of two destructive landfall TCs: Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Results demonstrate that the geneses of these two TCs are highly predictable with the maximum prediction lead time reaching 11 days. The ''beyond weather time scale'' predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is primarily attributed to the model's skillful prediction of the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward propagation of easterly waves. Meanwhile, the landfall location and time can be predicted one week ahead for Sandy's U.S landfall, and two weeks ahead for Haiyan's landing in the Philippines. The success in predicting Sandy and Haiyan, together with low false alarms, indicates the potential of using the GFDL coupled model for extended-range predictions of TCs.

The interannual variability of the Madden} Julian Oscillation (MJO) is investigated in an ensemble of 15 experiments performed with the ECHAM4 T30 general circulation model (GCM). The model experiments have been performed with AMIP conditions from January 1979 to December 1993. The MJO signal has been identi"ed applying a principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis to the 200-mb tropical velocity potential. The results obtained from the model ensemble are compared with 15 y of ECMWF re-analysis and OLR observations. The results suggest that the warm and cold phases of El Nin o have some in#uence on the spatial propagation of the oscillation. Both in the re-analysis and in the model ensemble, the results indicate that during La Nin a conditions the MJO is mostly con"ned west of the date line, with the largest activity located over the Indian Ocean and the western Paci"c. In warm El Nin o conditions, the convective anomalies associated with the oscillation appear to penetrate farther into the central Paci"c. These changes in the MJO convective forcing seem to a!ect the zonal mean of the rotational component of the #ow anomaly, which tends to weaken during warm El Nin o periods. Some weak reproducibility of the interannual variability of the MJO activity is found. The results obtained from four-member and eight-member subsamples of the ensemble indicate that the reproducibility of the interannual behaviour of the MJO can be detected by choosing an ensemble of a larger size. Corresponding to the emergence of reproducibility with the increasing size of the sample, the correlation between the MJO activity and the Nin o-3 SST anomaly appears to intensify.

this study, using IMD high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler -Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 & 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 & 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 & 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 & 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly patterns were very similar to that during Phase 1 & 2 except for above normal convective anomalies over equatorial Indian Ocean. A general decrease in the rainfall was also observed over most parts of the country. The associated dry conditions extended upto northwest Pacific. Thus the impact of the MJO on the monsoon was not limited to the Indian region. The impact was rather felt over larger spatial scale extending up to Pacific. This study also revealed that the onset of break and active events over India and the duration of these events are strongly related to the Phase and strength of the MJO. The break events were relatively better associated with the strong MJO Phases than the active events. About 83% of the break events were found to be set in during the Phases 7, 8, 1 & 2 of MJO with maximum during Phase 1 (40%). On the other hand, about 70% of the active events were set in during the MJO Phases of 3 to 6 with maximum during Phase 4 (21%). The results of this study indicate an opportunity for using the real time information and skillful prediction of MJO Phases for the prediction of break and active conditions which are very crucial for agriculture decisions.

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden-Julian oscillations (UrOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This 'high' PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15-30". If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on daily, monthly, and seasonal precipitation was investigated for southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula using November–April data for the period of 1979–2005. The positive MJO phase is considered to be the periods for which the enhanced convection center was placed over the south Indonesian–north Australian region. On the other hand, the convection center shifts over the western Indian Ocean tropics and most of the study area as the negative MJO phase prevails. Seasonal precipitation and the frequency of wet events were significantly increased during the negative phase. The ratios of the precipitation amount during the negative phase to the corresponding values during the positive phase were about 1.75–2.75 and 2.75–4.00 for the southwestern and southeastern parts of Iran, respectively. This ratio reached to about 3.00 for Riyadh, 4.20 and 5.50 for Masqat and Doha, 2.10 for Kuwait, and 1.20 for Bahrain. The results of the seasonal and monthly analysis were generally found to be consistent,
although because of the smaller sample size the outcomes of the monthly investigations were less statistically significant. While the negative MJO phase does not have a consistent effect on March precipitation over some parts of southern Iran, it has consistently enhanced precipitation over the eastern and southern coasts of the peninsula in Oman, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia.
During the negative MJO phase, while enhanced low-level southerly winds transfer a substantial amount of moisture to the study area, upward motion increases in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Synchronized with the prevalence of these rain-bearing southerly winds, the existence of a strong horizontal wind speed gradient at the exit region of the North Africa–Arabian jet enhances precipitation. The jet exit, which was mostly located over Egypt in November, moved westward into the study area in Iran and Saudi Arabia during the rainy period of January–March. The direction of near-surface wind anomalies changed from mostly southeasterly in November to southwesterly in March and April, influencing precipitation pattern during various months of the rainy season. In contrast to the negative phase, an enhanced low-level dry northerly
wind and suppressed horizontal wind speed gradient at the jet exits are the main characteristics of atmospheric circulation over the study area during the positive MJO phase. Furthermore, an increased downward air motion at the middle levels of the atmosphere and a significant shortage in precipitation are the other climatic components of the southwest Asian region during such a period.

To identify the main thermodynamic processes that sustain the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), an eddy available potential energy budget analysis is performed on a regional model simulation with moisture constrained by observations. The model realistically simulates the two MJO episodes observed during the winter of 2007/08. Analysis of these two cases shows that instabilities and damping associated with variations in diabatic heating and energy transport work in concert to provide the MJO with its observed characteristics. The results are used to construct a simplified paradigm of MJO thermodynamics.

Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian rainfall and circulation are examined during all four seasons. The authors examine circulation anomalies and a number of different rainfall metrics, each composited contemporaneously for eight MJO phases derived from the real-time multivariate MJO index. Multiple rainfall metrics are examined to allow for greater relevance of the information for applications. The greatest rainfall impact of the MJO occurs in northern Australia in (austral) summer, although in every season rainfall impacts of various magnitude are found in most locations, associated with corresponding circulation anomalies. In northern Australia in all seasons except winter, the rainfall impact is explained by the direct influence of the MJO's tropical convective anomalies, while in winter a weaker and more localized signal in northern Australia appears to result from the modulation of the trade winds as they impinge upon the eastern coasts, especially in the northeast. In extratropical Australia, on the other hand, the occurrence of enhanced (suppressed) rainfall appears to result from induced upward (downward) motion within remotely forced extratropical lows (highs), and from anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) winds that transport moisture from the tropics. Induction of extratropical rainfall anomalies by remotely forced lows and highs appears to operate mostly in winter, whereas anomalous meridional moisture transport appears to operate mainly in the summer, autumn, and to some extent in the spring.

The summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall variability over India is partly due to the external surface boundary forcing and partly due to its internal dynamics. Slowly varying surface boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SST), snow cover, soil moisture in the preceding winter and the pre-monsoon season are believed to constitute a major forcing on the year-to-year variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall.

A principal component analysis of the combined fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface zonal and meridional wind reveals that the dominant mode of intraseasonal (30 to 70 day) covariability during northern winter in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere is that of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Regression calculations show that the submonthly (30-day high-pass filtered) surface wind variability is significantly modulated during the MJO. Regions of increased (decreased) submonthly surface wind variability propagate eastward, approximately in phase with the intraseasonal surface westerly (easterly) anomalies of the MJO. Because of the dependence of the surface latent heat flux on the magnitude of the total wind speed, this systematic modulation of the submonthly surface wind variability produces a significant component in the intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies, which partially cancels the latent heat flux anomalies due to the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies, particularly south of 10°S.

Monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) coast has been studied using the recently released high resolution Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite data (HOAPS 3). The columnar water vapour content and sea surface temperature and evaporation are all examined to look into the conditions leading to MOK from -7 pentads. We have also looked into the role of Monsoon Hadley Cell (MHC) using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. The role of the cross equatorial flow and low level jet at 850 hPa has also been explored. The importance of the Madden Julian Oscillation in initiating the MOK has also been studied using the outgoing longwave radiation data. An analysis of sea surface temperature over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal for contrasting MOK's, showed that, the AS warm pool plays a crucial role on MOK. Contrary to the popular notion that the moisture builds up only two to three weeks in advance, our study showed that the integrated columnar water peaks around 35-40 days (almost around the same time as that of the pre monsoon rainfall peak) prior to MOK and can be thought of as a potential predictor for MOK. The 850 hPa winds strengthen in the extreme southern peninsula and Sri Lanka about 3 pentads prior to MOK. The evaporation rates over the southern Arabian Sea shows a dramatic increase with onset of MOK. The MHC can be thought of as useful predictor for extreme monsoon onsets (early or delayed).

The Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-system-resolving model, successfully simulated the life cycle of Tropical Storm Isobel that formed over the Timor Sea in the austral summer of 2006. The multiscale interactions in the life cycle of the simulated storm were analyzed in this study. The large-scale aspects that affected Isobel's life cycle are documented in this paper and the corresponding mesoscale processes are documented in a companion paper.

To identify the main thermodynamic processes that sustain the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), an eddy available potential energy budget analysis is performed on a regional model simulation with moisture constrained by observations. The model realistically simulates the two MJO episodes observed during the winter of 2007/08. Analysis of these two cases shows that instabilities and damping associated with variations in diabatic heating and energy transport work in concert to provide the MJO with its observed characteristics. The results are used to construct a simplified paradigm of MJO thermodynamics.

Ground-based GPS finds potential applications in many atmospheric studies such as spatial distribution of columnar water vapor as well as the tidal oscillations in the atmosphere. The zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) derived from GPS data at two Indian IGS stations are used to establish its potential for studying the atmospheric tidal, intra-seasonal and planetary oscillations. The major tidal oscillations observed in ZTD data are diurnal, semi-diurnal and their harmonics. Prominent intra-seasonal oscillations observed in ZTD are reported for the first time in this context. These intra-seasonal oscillations are Madden-Julian Oscillation (30-70 days, 60-90 days, 100-120 days) and planetary waves (like 27, 16 and 5-10 days periodicities). Quantification of these periodicities will provide a useful handle to improve the empirical models employed in the estimation of tropospheric delay.

The structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in an 1800-day integration of the Hadley Centre Unified Model was analysed, and interpreted within a Kelvin-wave framework. The model was forced with constant equinoctial (March) boundary conditions so that a 'clean' MJO signal could be separated from the effects of the seasonal cycle and forced interannual variability. The simulated MJO was fairly realistic in terms of its large-scale spatial structure and propagation characteristics, although its period of 30 days (corresponding to an average phase speed of 15 m s-') was shorter than that observed. The signal in deep convection was less coherent than in observations, and appeared to move eastwards as a sequence of discrete convective anomalies, rather than by a smooth eastward propagation. Both 'fast' and 'slow' equatorial Kelvin waves appeared to play an important role in the eastward propagation of the simulated MJO. Enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean was associated with a 'fast' equatorial Kelvin wave that propagated eastwards at 55 m s-' over the Pacific.

1] The major tropical convective and circulation features of the intraseasonal or Madden -Julian oscillation (MJO) are simulated as a passive response to observed MJO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), strengthening the case for ocean -atmosphere interactions being central to MJO dynamics. However, the magnitude of the surface fluxes diagnosed from the MJO cycle in the AGCM, that would feed back onto the ocean in a coupled system, are much weaker than in observations. The phasing of the convectivedynamical model response to the MJO SST anomalies and the associated surface flux anomalies is too fast compared to observations of the (potentially) coupled system, and would act to damp the SST anomalies.

An ocean general circulation model, forced with idealized, purely oscillating wind stresses over the western equatorial Pacific similar to those observed during the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), developed rectified low-frequency anomalies in SST and zonal currents, compared to a run in which the forcing was climatological. The rectification in SST resulted from increased evaporation under stronger than normal winds of either sign, from correlated intraseasonal oscillations in both vertical temperature gradient and upwelling speed forced by the winds, and from zonal advection due to nonlinearly generated equatorial currents. The net rectified signature produced by the MJO-like wind stresses was SST cooling (about 0.4ЊC) in the west Pacific, and warming (about 0.1ЊC) in the central Pacific, tending to flatten the background zonal SST gradient. It is hypothesized that, in a coupled system, such a pattern of SST anomalies would spawn additional westerly wind anomalies as a result of SST-induced changes in the low-level zonal pressure gradient. This was tested in an intermediate coupled model initialized to 1 January 1997, preceding the 1997-98 El Niño. On its own, the model hindcast a relatively weak warm event, but when the effect of the rectified SST pattern was imposed, a coupled response produced the hypothesized additional westerlies and the hindcast El Niño became about 50% stronger (measured by east Pacific SST anomalies), suggesting that the MJO can interact constructively with the ENSO cycle. This implies that developing the capacity to predict, if not individual MJO events, then the conditions that affect their amplitude, may enhance predictability of the strength of oncoming El Niños.

In spring the inland penetration of the West African Monsoon (WAM) is weak and the associated rainband is located over the Guinean coast. Then within a few days deep convection weakens considerably and the rainband reappears about 20 days after over the Sahel, where it remains until late September signalling the summer rainy season. Over the period 1989–2008 a teleconnection induced by the Indian monsoon onset is shown to have a significant impact on the WAM onset, by performing composite analyses on both observational data sets and atmospheric general circulation model simulations ensembles where the model is nudged to observations over the Indian monsoon sector. The initiation of convective activity over the Indian subcontinent north of 15°N at the time of the Indian monsoon onset results in a westward propagating Rossby wave establishing over North Africa 7–15 days after. A back-trajectory analysis shows that during this period, dry air originating from the westerly subtropical jet entrance is driven to subside and move southward over West Africa inhibiting convection there. At the same time the low-level pressure field over West Africa reinforces the moisture transport inland. After the passage of the wave, the dry air intrusions weaken drastically. Hence 20 days after the Indian monsoon onset, convection is released over the Sahel where thermodynamic conditions are more favourable. This scenario is very similar in the observations and in the nudged simulations, meaning that the Indian monsoon onset is instrumental in the WAM onset and its predictability at intraseasonal scale.

The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler–Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly patterns were very similar to that during Phase 1 and 2 except for above normal convective anomalies over equatorial Indian Ocean. A general decrease in the rainfall was also observed over most parts of the country. The associated dry conditions extended up to northwest Pacific. Thus the impact of the MJO on the monsoon was not limited to the Indian region. The impact was rather felt over larger spatial scale extending up to Pacific. This study also revealed that the onset of break and active events over India and the duration of these events are strongly related to the Phase and strength of the MJO. The break events were relatively better associated with the strong MJO Phases than the active events. About 83% of the break events were found to be set in during the Phases 7, 8, 1 and 2 of MJO with maximum during Phase 1 (40%). On the other hand, about 70% of the active events were set in during the MJO Phases of 3 to 6 with maximum during Phase 4 (21%). The results of this study indicate an opportunity for using the real time information and skillful prediction of MJO Phases for the prediction of break and active conditions which are very crucial for agriculture decisions.

New diagnostics of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) cycle in ocean temperature and, for the first time, salinity are presented. The MJO composites are based on 4 years of gridded Argo float data from 2003 to 2006, and extend from the surface to 1,400 m depth in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The MJO surface salinity anomalies are consistent with precipitation minus evaporation fluxes in the Indian Ocean, and with anomalous zonal advection in the Pacific. The Argo sea surface temperature and thermocline depth anomalies are consistent with previous studies using other data sets. The near-surface density changes due to salinity are comparable to, and partially offset, those due to temperature, emphasising the importance of including salinity as well as temperature changes in mixed-layer modelling of tropical intraseasonal processes. The MJO-forced equatorial Kelvin wave that propagates along the thermocline in the Pacific extends down into the deep ocean, to at least 1,400 m. Coherent, statistically significant, MJO temperature and salinity anomalies are also present in the deep Indian Ocean.

A life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20 • longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction.

This work examines the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP's coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near-real time. Using a projection of El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-removed variables onto the principal patterns of MJO convection and upper-and lower-level circulations, MJO-related signals in the dynamical model forecasts are extracted. The operational NCEP atmosphere-ocean fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) model has useful skill (.0.5 correlation) out to ;15 days when the initial MJO convection is located over the Indian Ocean. The skill of the CFS hindcast dataset for the period from 1995 to 2004 is nearly comparable to that from a lagged multiple linear regression model, which uses information from the previous five pentads of the leading two principal components (PCs). In contrast, the real-time analysis for the MJO forecast skill for the period from January 2005 to February 2006 using the lagged multiple linear regression model is reduced to ;10-12 days. However, the operational CFS forecast for this period is skillful out to ;17 days for the winter season, implying that the coupled dynamical forecast has some usefulness in predicting the MJO compared to the statistical model.

The derivation of the meridional momentum flux arising from a multiscale horizontal velocity field in the intraseasonal, planetary, equatorial synoptic-scale dynamics (IPESD) multiscale models of the equatorial troposphere is presented. It is shown that, because of the balance dynamics on the synoptic scales, the synoptic-scale component of the meridional momentum flux convergence must always vanish at the equa-tor. Plausible Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) models are presented along with their planetary-scale meridional momentum fluxes. These models are driven by synoptic-scale heating fluctuations that have vertical and meridional tilts. Irrespective of the sign of the synoptic-scale meridional momentum flux (direction of the tilts) in each of the four MJO examples, the zonal and vertical mean meridional momentum flux convergence from the planetary scales always drives westerly winds near the equator: this is the superrotation characteristic of actual MJOs. The concluding discussi...

In this study, we detected the spatial and temporal characteristics of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) using zonal winds at the surface and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) from the NCEP-NCAR (U.S. National Center of Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis product from 1981-2003. The results show that MJO activity, represented by these two variables, has large variances around 10 o off the equator and over the near-equatorial western Pacific. One central issue addressed in this study is MJO-ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) relationship. It has been found that there exists a statistically significant relationship between MJO in spring-summer and ENSO in autumn-winter. The relationship of MJO-ENSO is nonlinear in nature and has a decadal variation. A much stronger statistical relationship of MJO-ENSO was found in the 1990s as compared to that in the 1980s. These findings were further verified using ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis product. The potential mechanisms responsible for MJO-ENSO relationship are also discussed.

The spectral analysis of gridded rainfall data obtained from 1384 rain gauge stations by India Meteorological Department demonstrates not much change in low-frequency components of decadal spectra of all India and its four subregions, namely, southwest, southeast, central, and northwest, during the last 10 decades. However, the dominant as well as the significant cycles lying between the periods 10-20 days, 20-30 days, 30-40 days, and 40-50 days are highly variable on an interdecadal basis. On close inspection, it can be inferred that the 40-50 day oscillations that corresponds to Madden-Julian Oscillations is mainly associated with the southern Indian region, namely southwest and southeast, and the 30-40 day oscillation of southeast region is gradually increasing on a decadal scale during the last 4 decades. The physical context of interdecadal variability of rainfall in India can be linked with the warm phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations and the cold phase of interdecadal Pacific oscillations. The correlogram analysis shows the presence of 15, (17, 19), and 17 year cycles for the southwest, central, and northwest regions, respectively. No significant trend is discernable during the last 10 decades, when the linear least squares fitting method and Mann-Kendall statistic to identify the trend and the normalized test statistic and statistical probability to quantify the significance of the trend are applied, on the annual rainfall data for all India and its subregions.

Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three multi-cloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward propagating two-day waves, and the Madden-Julian oscillation. The authors have recently developed a systematic model convective parametrization highlighting the dynamic role of the three cloud types through two baroclinic modes of vertical structure: a deep convective heating mode and a second mode with low level heating and cooling corresponding respectively to congestus and stratiform clouds. The model includes a systematic moisture equation where the lower troposphere moisture increases through detrainment of shallow cumulus clouds, evaporation of stratiform rain, and moisture convergence and decreases through deep convective precipitation and a nonlinear switch which favors either deep or congestus convection depending on whether the troposphere is moist or dry. Here several new facets of these multi-cloud models are discussed including all the relevant time scales in the models and the links with simpler parametrizations involving only a single baroclinic mode in various limiting regimes. One of the new phenomena in the multi-cloud models is the existence of suitable unstable radiative convective equilibria (RCE) involving a larger fraction of congestus clouds and a smaller fraction of deep convective clouds. Novel aspects of the linear and nonlinear stability of such unstable RCE's are studied here. They include new modes of linear instability including mesoscale second baroclinic moist gravity waves, slow moving mesoscale modes resembling squall lines, and large scale standing modes. The nonlinear instability of unstable RCE's to homogeneous perturbations is studied with three different types of nonlinear dynamics occurring which involve adjustment to a steady deep convective RCE, periodic oscillation, and even heteroclinic chaos in suitable parameter regimes.

A self-contained derivation of the IPESD models [Majda, A.J., Klein, R., 2003. Systematic multi-scale models for the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 393-408] governing synoptic and planetary scale tropical flows is provided. This derivation demonstrates the analytic tractability of the model and the effect of zonally and meridionally tilted synoptic scale heating on the forcing of planetary scale flows through upscale momentum and temperature fluxes. Exploiting the analytic tractability of the models, different aspects of the planetary scale forcing are traced to meridional and vertical tilts in the synoptic scale heating profile. Variants of the archetypal IPESD models for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) presented in Majda and Biello [Majda,

Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) and Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) observations and reanalysis-based surface flux products are used to test theories of atmosphere–ocean interaction that explain the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Negative intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation, indicating deep convective clouds, is in phase with increased surface wind stress, decreased solar heating, and increased surface turbulent heat flux—mostly evaporation—from the ocean to the atmosphere. Net heat flux cools the upper ocean in the convective phase. Sea surface temperature (SST) warms during the suppressed phase, reaching a maximum before the onset of MJO convection. The timing of convection, surface flux, and SST is consistent from the central Indian Ocean (70°E) to the western Pacific Ocean (160°E). Mean surface evaporation observed in TOGA COARE and DYNAMO (110 W m−2) accounts for about half of the moisture...