Industrial production index

The study investigated relationships between agricultural policy output (proxy by the agricultural productivity index, agricultural GDP/total GDP and crop productivity index) and output of industrial sector (proxy by the industrial capacity utilization rate) from 1970 to 2012 period in Nigeria. The study employed time series variables obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was conducted on the specified time series, and the result showed that all non-growth rate series were integrated of order one, while growth rate series were stationary at level. The two-step Engle Granger method was employed to test for the presence of co-integration among specified variables. The result revealed that variables were not co-integrated. To avoid spurious regression, the specified models for non-growth rate series were estimated at first difference of the log variables. The em...

TEZ11924Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2019.Kaynakça (s. 93-104) var.xii, 107 s. : tablo ; 29 cm.Emtia fiyatları, artan tüketim, tükenen kaynaklar, küreselleşme olgusu ve teknolojik gelişmelerle birlikte son yıllarda önemli bir oynaklık göstermeye başlamıştır. Dünya ekonomisinde yaşanan gelişim ve değişimler üretim, yatırım ve tüketim aracı olarak kullanılan emtiaların genişlik, büyüklük ve süre bakımından fiyatlarının dalgalanmasına ve bu dalgalanmanın diğer piyasalara yansıyarak makroekonomik dinamikler üzerinde değişimler yaratmasına neden olmuştur. Bu durum, son dönemde dünya ekonomisinde görülen en belirgin değişimlerden birisini oluşturmaktadır. Emtia fiyatlarındaki bu dalgalanmalar özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kırılgan olan ekonomilerini ciddi biçimde etkileyen bir unsur haline dönüşmüştür. Çalışmada, emtia fiyatlarının makroekonomik etkilerinin analizi için, sanayi girdisi ve yakıt fiyatlarının, sanayi üretim endeksi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmişt...

In this study, it is aimed to examine the effects of food and product production values on inflation. In the study, the variables of the World Bank Country Reports between 1991-2019 Consumer Price Index, Wholesale Price Index, Food Production Index, Product Production Index and Production Value Added were used. According to the results obtained from the study, there is a statistically significant relationship between TUFE and TOFE and GUE, UUE and UKD variables (p <0.01). According to the results of controlled correlation analysis, the effects of food and product production indexes on consumer and wholesale inflation level are not statistically significant (p> 0.05). The effect of UKD and GUE parameters on inflation is statistically significant (p <0.05). Explanation power of both models is very high. According to the regression coefficients, UKD has a negative effect, and GUE has a positive effect. The results show that production has a positive effect on inflation, while ...

This study investigates the impact of interest rates on stock market returns, focusing on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) from 1997 to 2010. The analysis incorporates macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates, the industrial production index, and behavioural factors like investor sentiment. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis provide foundational insights into the dataset, while unit root and stationarity tests ensure robust econometric modelling. The revised regression approach, utilizing differenced data, confirms a significant negative relationship between interest rates and stock market returns. The findings align with global trends but underscore the unique characteristics of emerging markets, offering valuable implications for policymakers and investors.

This study investigated the relationship between oil sector growth and manufacturing sector growth, with the view of ascertaining the influence of oil output on the manufacturing sector output growth in Nigeria. Employing Structural Vector autoregressive (SVAR) and causality test approaches, the result of the causality test shows that there was no causality running between the manufacturing output and oil output in Nigeria. The results of impulse response functions (IRFs) and Variance error decomposition (VED) show that the oil output growth and the manufacturing sector output growth exhibit a negative relationship. The oil price and the exchange rate variables exhibit negative and statistically significant results in relation to manufacturing sector output. Interest rate was also found to exhibit significant positive relationship with manufacturing sector growth. The influence of oil price on the manufacturing sector is stronger than the impact of the oil output. The study therefore recommends that the government and stakeholders may focus more on the oil price for her policy formulation instead of on oil output. Secondly, monetary authorities should be sensitive to the interest rate charged on loanable funds. This may attract more investors and increase the business friendliness of Nigeria economy relative to other developing countries.

To answer the analytical contemplation, the study focused on the dynamic relationships between the GDP and Inflation on Stock Prices. This study is trying to analyze the presence of long-run, short-run, and causal relationships among the variables in the Indian context. This study has used monthly data i.e., from 2005 to 2022 along with methods like Johansen Cointegration and VECM to verify short-run and long-run dynamic relationships, and the Granger Causality test to check the causal relationship between the variables. The result reveals the existence of long-run significant relationships among the variables while GDP has a positive influence on stock prices, however, Inflation has a negative relationship with stock prices. The study found unidirectional causality between Inflation to stock prices, and stock prices to GDP respectively while bidirectional causality between GDP and Inflation at a 10% level of significance during the study period.

The movement of macroeconomic predictors is always more and less determining factors of stock prices. It always strikes the mind of investors or financial decision-makers which type of relationship found between the macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. To support the answer, the study has used selected macroeconomic variables (i.e., IIP and CPI as a proxy of GDP and inflation respectively) and stock prices (i.e., S&P BSE Sensex Index) to verify the relationship during the period from 2005 to 2022. By using OLS, the study found that the IIP has a significant positive relationship with stock prices and CPI has a significant negative effect on stock prices in India. The result of Granger causality we found a unidirectional relationship from IIP to SP and SP to CPI while bidirectional causality between the variables in the short-run during the period. Overall, we found that the macroeconomic variables (i.e., IIP and CPI) have a significant and causal relationship with stock prices in India.

The daily animal protein intake of an average Nigerian is far less than the World Health Organization recommended minimum standard. The egg is the cheapest and most affordable animal protein source in Nigeria, but its production has not been able to match the increasing demand capacity. Premised on the above facts and to identify ways to intensify egg production, the study was specifically designed to examine the trend in egg production and establish the relationship between egg production and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in addition to other variables in Nigeria. The study used time series data from the period 1961 to 2020. The data were sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and ADF-GLS unit root test were used to confirm the stability of the series. The Engle-Granger two-step technique was used to test for the cointegration of the series. The empirical finding sh...

The authorities and financial supervisors recognized, following the financial and economic crises, that the process of identification of systemic risks should receive more attention. The aim of this paper is to construct a financial systemic stress indicator which aims to predict which financial stress tends to depress the real economy in Romania. We obtained the composite indicator with the aggregation of five market-specific subindices created from individual financial stress measures (foreign exchange market, bond market, equity market, money market and banking sector). The systemic nature of stress is captured by the time-varying correlations between market segments. This indicator represents a real-time measure of systemic risk and quantify stress in the Romanian financial system. The results show that the financial systemic stress index is able to provide a periodization of crises.

The direction of flow is not certain in which variations in the exchange rate could be transmitted to the consumer price index. To examine the transmission mechanism arising from the exchange rate to consumer price index in the Nigerian economy, eight variables-VAR model was employed in this regard. The data for the study span from the period first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2021. The results had it that exchange rate devaluation is transmitted directly to consumer price index through a rise in the net exports and also the aggregate demand. The study therefore, recommends a rise in terms of outputs in local production so that the weight of the inflationary impact of the exchange rate devaluation could be minimal.

dönemi için aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye'de ihracat ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri araştırmaktır. Bir diğer ifadeyle, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi test edilmektedir. Aylık bazda seriler dolayısıyla gayri safi yurt içi hasıla yerine sanayi üretim endeksi kullanılmaktadır. Birim kök testleri sonucunda aynı dereceden bütünleşik oldukları tespit edilen ihracat, ithalat, dış ticaret hadleri ve sanayi üretim endeksi değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmektedir. Test edilen uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığına bağlı olarak, hata düzeltme modeli (VECM) tahmin edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla hata düzeltme modeline bağlı Granger nedensellik testleri ve Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından tanımlanan dönüştürülmüş Wald (MWALD) testleri uygulanmaktadır. Toda ve Yamamoto yöntemine göre, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini destekleyecek bir şekilde, ihracattan sanayi üretim endeksine doğru tek yönlü Granger nedensellik olgusu gözlemlenmiştir. Bunun dışında, ihracat ile dış ticaret hadleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir.

The study examined the macroeconomic factors that influence performance of the manufacturing sector of Ghana using multivariate time series approach. It was found out t hat manufacturing production and real gross domestic product per capita were inversely related. In the long-run, macroeconomic variables such as private sector credit, labour and real exchange rate were unfavourable factors that weigh down the manufacturing sector while in the short-run, the past years consumer price index and real exchange rate were unfavourable to the manufacturing production. Finally, it is recommended that private sector credit to the manufacturing sector should be improved, training of labour force should be skilled and technical oriented and policies to stabilise the real exchange rate should be put in place to halt the down trending in manufacturing production.

This research was conducted to examine the influence of macroeconomic factors, as measured by inflation, interest rate, REER exchange rate and GDP growth to financing Islamic bank in Indonesia. This study also used control variables of demography (number of Muslim population in Indonesia) and the global financial crises effect in 2008. Data used this study was obtained from the Financial Report of Bank Indonesia publications, and bank report through the website. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The sample in this study 6 Sharia foreign exchange banks. Data analysis techniques used in this study is multiple regression on panel data, where there are 6 Sharia foreign exchange banks and 40 periods (quarterly data 2007 – 2016). There are two research models, in the model I the regression of macroeconomic variables to Islamic bank financing. Whereas in the model II the regression of macroeconomic variables to Islamic bank financing, demography and the global financial c...

In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.

Early detection of a turning point in a business cycle is crucial, as information about the changing phases in business cycles enables policy makers, the business community, and investors to cope better with unexpected events brought about by economic and business situations. The Malaysian economy is fortunate to own a publicly accessible composite of leading indicator (CLI) that is presumed capable of tracing the business cycle movement and thus contributes to the creation of an early signaling tool for short-term economic forecasting. Certainly, the usefulness of this CLI in monitoring the contemporary economic and business condition in Malaysia will be empirically appealing to the nation. Even though the present study can display the ability of the Malaysian CLI to trace the business cycle and offers advanced detection of business cycle turning points, the evidence of diminishing lead times foreseen by the CLI significantly weaken the fundamental function of a leading index as an early tool to signal economic vulnerability.

The Granger-causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and the Shariah (Islamic) Index (EMAs) of Malaysian stock market returns is an important issue to investigate. In this paper we attempt to examine the long-term theoretical relationship and Granger-causal (or lead-lag) relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index. The standard time series techniques are used. The paper concludes and identifies a cointegrating theoretical relationship along with the identification of Granger-causality (i.e., exogeneity and endogeneity of the variables) and advises the policy makers how much the studied variables are important in the pricing of the Islamic Indexes. The findings tend to indicate that the shariah index can't be affected by the macro variables since it leads (rather than lags) the macro variables. Implications of the findings are immense for the policy makers. Also the findings of this paper present an opportunity to further expand the research in this field as well as extend it to other Shariah Indices in the Gulf and other Islamic markets.

This research will focus on the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in Malaysia. The objective of this research is to examine the impact of Aggregate Money Supply (M3), Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rate (KLIBOR), Exchange Rate of Malaysian Ringgit-United States Dollar (EXRATE), Industrial Production Index (IPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gold Price (GOLD) and Crude Oil Price (COP), which is combination of monetary, production and commodity toward FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index (FBMES). In order to achieve the objective, this study applies the Ordinary Least Square using heteroskedasticity robust variance-covariance estimator (VCE robust) and used monthly data over the period of April 2007 - April 2016 from authorized sources which is DataStream (Thompson Reuters). The study revealed that there is a significant relationship between FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index and the selected variables, namely EXRATE, IPI, CPI, GOLD and ...

This study investigated the effect of financial deepening on the performance of manufacturing firms in Nigeria from 1970 to 2016. The data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. The model was specified, and the hypotheses were tested with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and Mann-Whitney U Test test. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey tests were carried out to ensure robust regression results. Results obtained from the study revealed that broad money supply has direct and significant impact on index of manufacturing production (p-value= 0.0039) in Nigeria, credit to private sector has indirect and insignificant impact on index of manufacturing production (p-value= 0.1167) in Nigeria and market capitalization has an indirect and significant impact on index of manufacturing production (p-value= 0.0051) in the long-run and a direct and insignificant impact (p-value= 0.1596) in...

The article presents the results of modeling and assessment of the effects of demand factors for banking loans by business entities and households on the volume of bank loaning in Ukraine. The article summarizes the factors influencing on volume of banking loans according to the demand side of business entities and households; performed modeling based on statistical data for Ukrainian practice in the period from 2006 to 2020. The authors developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand by business entities. According to the constructed model, it is concluded that the change in demand for credit resources by business entities is due to changes in interest rates (by 30%), changes in industrial production index (15.6%), changes in PFTS index 10.7%), change in the price index of industrial producers (1.0%), change in themselves over time (42.5%). The authors also developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand fr...

This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production. Both linear and non‐linear specifications are examined, with the latter being of the Markov‐switching type as used in many recent business cycle applications. The Markov‐switching models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession, but a three‐indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model include a short‐term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly CBI survey. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In this paper, we extend the monthly financial stress index for Lithuania, computed by the European Central Bank, to a daily frequency and we also include banking sector stress among its constituents, beyond bond, equity and foreign exchange markets. We investigate the causal relationship between the daily financial stress index and monthly industrial production growth, using a Granger causality test applied to a mixed-frequency VAR. Our results suggest evidence of Granger causality from financial stress to industrial production growth once the index is enriched by daily observations from the financial markets. Our findings, based on impulse response analysis, confirm the negative effect of financial stress on real economy found in the empirical literature through common frequency analysis. Finally, the comparison between common and mixed frequency analysis suggests that ignoring the information content of daily data would lead to a mild temporal aggregation bias that could affect the evaluation of financial stress shocks on industrial production. Keywords Granger causality • Financial stress index • Mixed frequency data JEL Classification C32 • E44 • G10 1 Introduction Measuring financial stress has become more prominent since the global financial crisis. Central banks and international organizations have constructed financial stress indexes B Ieva Mikaliunaite

In this paper, we extend the monthly financial stress index for Lithuania, computed by the European Central Bank, to a daily frequency and we also include banking sector stress among its constituents, beyond bond, equity and foreign exchange markets. We investigate the causal relationship between the daily financial stress index and monthly industrial production growth, using a Granger causality test applied to a mixed-frequency VAR. Our results suggest evidence of Granger causality from financial stress to industrial production growth once the index is enriched by daily observations from the financial markets. Our findings, based on impulse response analysis, confirm the negative effect of financial stress on real economy found in the empirical literature through common frequency analysis. Finally, the comparison between common and mixed frequency analysis suggests that ignoring the information content of daily data would lead to a mild temporal aggregation bias that could affect the evaluation of financial stress shocks on industrial production. Keywords Granger causality • Financial stress index • Mixed frequency data JEL Classification C32 • E44 • G10 1 Introduction Measuring financial stress has become more prominent since the global financial crisis. Central banks and international organizations have constructed financial stress indexes B Ieva Mikaliunaite

Although mining production depends on various equipments, significant amount of production loss can be attributed a specific equipment or fleet. Bottleneck is defined not only by production loss but also by our satisfaction from the equipment. The user satisfaction could be measured as machine effectiveness. Mining literatures on performance improvement and optimization of equipment operations assert importance of availability, utilization and production performance as key parameters. These three parameters are useful for evaluating effectiveness of equipment. Mine production index (MPI), which can represent the effect of these factors, has been applied for continuous operation in mining. MPI uses Fuzzy Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Process to determine importance of each three parameter for individual equipment. A case study in a Swedish open pit mine was done to evaluate the field application of MPI. The results reveal that crusher is the bottleneck equipment in studied mine. As a methodical approach, an algorithm which uses MPI and detects bottleneck in continuous mining operation has been proposed.

This study estimates a composite leading cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2014). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance, with a three-month difference, the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.

The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the Internet at the following website: http://www.bde.es. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.

Liquidity has always been one of the most important for banking industry resilience. Due to this importance, a study concerning the factors associated with Financing to Deposit ratio (FDR) needs to be done. This study will be devoted to analyze the structural relationship of internal performance of shariah banking industry indicator such liquid assets to short term funding ratio (STM), non performing financing (NPF), profit and the the external indicators such policy rate (BI rate), inflation, Industrian Production Index (IPI), and exchange rate. The research will try to compare the response or sensitivity of Financing to Deposits ratio to the changes of those indicators.Using monthly data from 2001 to 2015 and conducted using VAR/VECM model, we found that in the long run, the external factor exchange rate and BI rate are the most significantly cointegrated with FDR ratio. In the short run,the movement of FDR itself, NPF BI rate, IPI and Inflation are positively responsed by FDR.On ...

Oil is a crucial economic input and Pakistan’s growth, production levels, and price levels are affected significantly by oil price volatility. This paper captures the impact of oil price shocks on Pakistan’s economy by considering variables such as gross domestic product, the wholesale price index, and large-scale manufacturing index. Our analysis is based on vector autoregression and the results are in line with similar studies. We also determine the precise short-term or long-term impact of oil price volatility on the relevant variables.

This research aims to analyse the presence of short and long term relationships between Islamic real estate investment (I-REIT) return and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. To conduct this study, the research model adopted an estimation of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method. The analysis employs monthly data from January 2007 to December 2013. The result shows that there is a significant positive relationship between the Islamic real estate investment trust and Industrial Production Index variable, but significant negative relationship with Islamic Inter Bank Rate and Exchange Rate of Malaysian Ringgit-United State Dollar variables. On the other hand, the I-REIT shows an insignificant negative relationship with the Consumer Production Index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index, and M3 variables. The Granger causality analysis shows that there is a causal relationship between the variables of

This study is to examine the impact of internal and external factors on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks and to provide suitable solutions for enhancing their financial performance. This study utilizes original data collected from Islamic banking specialists that have experience, professionalism and a proven track record, as well as are true experts in their disciplines. Secondary data are gathered from the Financial Services Authority's (OJK) annual report on the financial performance of Islamic banks in Indonesia for the period 2013-2020 and 2013-2020 macroeconomic data. Using qualitative descriptive, panel data regression, and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis (AHP), the data were evaluated. The results of the study indicate that Bank Muamalat is the bank with the worst performance, whereas BTPN Syariah is regarded as the most outstanding since it is the sharia bank with the best performance. Only BOPO and FDR have a substantial impact on the profitability of Islamic Commercial Banks (ROA), with BOPO having a negative impact and FDR having a favorable impact. Inflation and the BI Rate have no substantial impact on profitability as external factors. As the primary approach, Sharia commercial banks must improve services and develop business segmentation based on risk tolerance. Trust and capital are the most crucial aspects in the success of this strategy. Directors as top-level managers play a crucial role in setting the direction of business policies and objectives, whereas employees play a part in the successful implementation of strategies. The ultimate objective of this strategy is to enhance consumer confidence and maximize profitability.

This study is to examine the impact of internal and external factors on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks and to provide suitable solutions for enhancing their financial performance. This study utilizes original data collected from Islamic banking specialists that have experience, professionalism and a proven track record, as well as are true experts in their disciplines. Secondary data are gathered from the Financial Services Authority's (OJK) annual report on the financial performance of Islamic banks in Indonesia for the period 2013-2020 and 2013-2020 macroeconomic data. Using qualitative descriptive, panel data regression, and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis (AHP), the data were evaluated. The results of the study indicate that Bank Muamalat is the bank with the worst performance, whereas BTPN Syariah is regarded as the most outstanding since it is the sharia bank with the best performance. Only BOPO and FDR have a substantial impact on the profitability of Islamic Commercial Banks (ROA), with BOPO having a negative impact and FDR having a favorable impact. Inflation and the BI Rate have no substantial impact on profitability as external factors. As the primary approach, Sharia commercial banks must improve services and develop business segmentation based on risk tolerance. Trust and capital are the most crucial aspects in the success of this strategy. Directors as top-level managers play a crucial role in setting the direction of business policies and objectives, whereas employees play a part in the successful implementation of strategies. The ultimate objective of this strategy is to enhance consumer confidence and maximize profitability.

The capital market sector is one area of economic activity that is expected to grow significantly following the adoption of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). As a result, integrating capital market activity in the ASEAN area must be a top priority in AEC implementation. The essential criterion for creating a seamless flow of cash and investment is the integration of ASEAN countries' capital markets. The total worth of all outstanding shares based on their normal closing price is reflected in the stock market capitalisation. A rise in the value of market capitalization indicates that the capital market is expanding. Capital flows into and out of the capital market are thought to have altered the value of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign capital market investment contributes to a balanced balance of payments. Foreign capital not only serves to cover the deficit in domestic capital that domestic savings cannot fill, but it also helps to fill the emptiness in the foreign exchang...

Various stakeholders and academicians have shown their interest in the study of capital market instruments such as stock market, bond and real estate investment trust (REITs). As such, there rises a need to review the importance of capital markets integration. This study took a closer look at the co-integration between Islamic real estate investment trust counters in Malaysia by applying the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method. Data were generated by processing monthly data from January 2007 to December 2013 obtained from authorized sources. The findings indicated that there was no long-run or equilibrium relationship between the Islamic al-Aqar, al-Hadharah and Axis counters. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the Islamic REIT companies in Malaysia do not integrate each other in the long run. This will create opportunity for investors to diversify their investment portfolios in Malaysia. As seen from the Granger causality view, the Hadharah and Axis returns were driven by al-Aqar returns in the short run.

This research aims to analyse the presence of short and long term relationships between Islamic real estate investment (I-REIT) return and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. To conduct this study, the research model adopted an estimation of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method. The analysis employs monthly data from January 2007 to December 2013. The result shows that there is a significant positive relationship between the Islamic real estate investment trust and Industrial Production Index variable, but significant negative relationship with Islamic Inter Bank Rate and Exchange Rate of Malaysian Ringgit-United State Dollar variables. On the other hand, the I-REIT shows an insignificant negative relationship with the Consumer Production Index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index, and M3 variables. The Granger causality analysis shows that there is a causal relationship between the variables of

This paper investigates some of the topics related to the discerning of trends and cycles in production and unemployment data of the Caribbean economies of Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. Using the HodrickPrescott and Baxter-King filters, this study proposes a chronology and a description of some of the cyclical properties of these series. Next, it examines the causality relationships that combine these variables. Empirical evidence from the cross-correlation coefficients indicates that the unemployment rate leads the cycle in both countries. A test of Okun’s Law suggests that it may not be very relevant in these two economies and hence, may not be a correct measure of unoccupied resources.

This paper aims to investigate the effect of the gross domestic product growth rate on inflation in these four selected ASEAN countries. This study is worthy as there is a need to understand the variance of national inflation for these ASEAN countries, particularly when Singapore’s inflation rate is the lowest among them. The Keynesian Theory and Static Panel Data analysis are put to the test in this empirical study. The investigation is carried out on yearly balanced panel data involving four ASEAN member countries. The secondary data is extracted from the World Bank database over a study period of sixty years from 1961 to 2020. The methodology is based on static panel data analysis involving both Fixed Effect and Random Effect models. The empirical results show that there is a negative significant relationship between economic growth and inflation within the four countries sampled. As such, the policy implication from this study may suggest that it is important for ASEAN-4 governments to continue beefing up their economic growth in order to curb inflationary pressure.

The study Analyzed climate change mitigation strategies adopted by poultry farmers in South-South, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to; examine the socioeconomic characteristics of poultry farmers in the study area, examine the sources of information on climate change mitigation strategies, assess the various climate change mitigation strategies adopted and estimate factors influencing the adoption of climate change mitigation strategies in the study area. A three stages sampling procedure was used to randomly select one Hundred and Twenty-four respondents that was used for the study. Primary data was collected using questionnaire. Majority (53.2%) had no access to extension services, while 46.8% had. Most (77.4%) respondents were engaged in off farm income while 22.6% were not. All respondents (100%) were members of cooperative and other farmers union. Majority (96.8%) had no access to credit while 3.2% had. The study further revealed that the majority sources of information on climate change mitigation strategies building of shed in areas exposed to direct sunlight (84%), construction of root with good heat insulator/sustainable building materials (82%), use of improved quality feed (78%), use of proper breed/genetic selection (70%) , sustainable land management practices (68%), enterprise diversification (66%), use of organic feed supplement (64%), cooperative and group membership (62%), use of feed addiction (60%) and use of fans and coolers to regulate temperature (3%). Result of the multiple regression analysis showed that adoption of climate change mitigation strategies were influenced by house hold size, off farm income, group membership, education attainment, extension contact and farm size. The study recommended that policies that will enhance educational attainment and asses to extension should be pursuit.

The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significanc...

This research presented Islamic Banking which continuously experienced growth in the banking system in Indonesia. Banking was expected to strengthen the SMEs in accessing the business financing with the concept of profit and loss sharing. This research was done to find out whether the increasing growth of Islamic Banking gave a positive response to the SMEs financing and other variables in line with the rising of Islamic Banking portofolio. The study was based on secondary data and mostly collected from the Islamic Banking Statistics 2011-2015 published by Bank Indonesia. Method of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used for data analysis and variables were financing in SMEs (UKM), depositor funds (DPK), non performing financing (NPF), number of worker (PKJ) and financing to desposit ratio (FDR). The result of the dynamic response analysis that the variables of Islamic Banking contributed positively to the financing of SMEs in Indonesia. DPK (2.17%), FDR (1.26%), NPF (1.2%) an...

Inflation rate in Iran has been a growing concern and gradually has become the country's economic problems. Despite the intense struggle, the rate of inflation in Iran has been growing during this time. The growth of Industrial production rate has been increased. This study compared the influence of price indices for agricultural and industrial products by inflation uncertainty using time series data 1974-2007. The inflation uncertainty is estimated by using GARCH models. The desired model using vector auto regression (VAR) was evaluated. Impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition has also been checked. Results from the VAR test in the industry section indicate that the industrial added-value, real exchange rate variable, the volume of liquidity and inflation uncertainty are in positive relation with the price index industrial products. Impulse response functions in industrial sector have been studied to the incoming shocks of all variables. The variance decomposition results indicate that in a short, middle and long period of time, most contributions of fluctuations for industrial products' price index are followed by the industrial products price and they were about respectively, 72%, 55% and 50%. The results show that the inflation uncertainty variable along with other variables has a significant impact on industrial products' price, especially in a long term. Thus, in studies which analyze the behavior of industrial products' prices and affecting factors, the inflation uncertainty variable should be considered along with other variables.

The recent global financial crisis has renewed the focus on the resistance of Islamic banks in order to confront the crisis. While several empirical studies show that Islamic banks have no resist from the crisis. Thus, Islamic banks run their business side by side with their counterpart and play the game under the same umbrella and the rules of game. In case of Indonesia, which implements dual banking system, Islamic banks have potential to be effected by the variables of conventional banks. Which mean, this condition led the Islamic banks have the vulnerable spot in economic life. This paper aims to examine the stability of Islamic banks and to discern dynamic behavior of Islamic banks to the macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate. The measure of stability of Islamic banks formulated as z-score. Then, we use VAR/VECM analysis in order to see the dynamic behavior and the vulnerability of Islamic banks. The paper found several findings, f...

Many studies have been related to monetary policy transmission toward economic growth targets. However, research on monetary policy transmission by including bond yields as a channel has never been done in Indonesia. Therefore, this study will analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission through bond yields compared to monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels. This study uses secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI) of Bank Indonesia, and the website investing.com. The analysis technique used in this study is Vector Autoregression (VARs). Based on research results, a relatively effective monetary policy transmission channel is the stock asset price channel. It is because the variables in the channel of stock asset prices only take one month to respond permanently to monetary policy, but the contribution between variab...

The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significanc...

This research presented Islamic Banking which continuously experienced growth in the banking system in Indonesia. Banking was expected to strengthen the SMEs in accessing the business financing with the concept of profit and loss sharing. This research was done to find out whether the increasing growth of Islamic Banking gave a positive response to the SMEs financing and other variables in line with the rising of Islamic Banking portofolio. The study was based on secondary data and mostly collected from the Islamic Banking Statistics 2011-2015 published by Bank Indonesia. Method of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used for data analysis and variables were financing in SMEs (UKM), depositor funds (DPK), non performing financing (NPF), number of worker (PKJ) and financing to desposit ratio (FDR). The result of the dynamic response analysis that the variables of Islamic Banking contributed positively to the financing of SMEs in Indonesia. DPK (2.17%), FDR (1.26%), NPF (1.2%) and PKJ (4.68%) contributed to the SMEs growth. The interesting findings were the similarity of the results of VECM Analysis, IRF Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis who asserted the need of Depositor Funds (DPK) as the driver of SMEs growth in Indonesia.

This study estimates a composite leading cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2014). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance, with a three-month difference, the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.

This study analyzes the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long-runs in Tunisia under a pure commitment policy through two channels. The first is the Structural Vector Autoregression used to analyze the short run effects of the exchange rate on the industrial production index and on the consumer and import price indexes. The second is the Vector Error Correction Model used to examine the long run dynamic effects of the exchange rate upon the same variables relying on Tunisian monthly data during the period January 1993 to June 2011. Unlike several empirical studies, which show that the impact of the exchange rate movements on prices has been reduced over the past few years in the industrialized countries, the exchange rate is found to be a potential source not only of production but also of inflation reduction in Tunisia. Indeed, the direct channel of the exchange rate seems to have a significant impact on production and inflation in the long-run, whereas the indirect one has no effect on the money supply. These results strongly support the monetary policy of the central bank targeting the exchange rate because there is a strong correlation between this rate and prices.