Economic Risk

Watermelon [Citrullus lanatus (Thunb.) Matsum. & Nakai] growers choose transplanting dates every year considering multiple risk factors. Earlier harvests linked to earlier planting typically find more favorable markets, but earlier planting has higher risk of freeze damage. Research also indicates that risk of fusarium wilt (caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. niveum) is higher during cooler weather, adding to the risk of planting earlier. Thus, growers need to balance market risk (e.g., getting a low price) and production risk (e.g., lower harvest or higher cost due to freezing temperatures or disease) in selecting a planting date. The objective of this analysis is to examine the effect of planting date on the distribution of potential economic returns and evaluate whether late planting could be a favorable risk-management strategy. Probability distributions are estimated for key risk factors based on input from watermelon growers, published price data, historical freeze data, expe...

A healthy lifestyle is a growing trend in society, the embodiment of a healthy lifestyle is through eating and drinking with organic products so that it becomes an opportunity for organic farmers. The research objectives: (1) to determine the income of organic rice farming, and (2) to determine the factors that affect the income of organic rice farming. The research was conducted in Pajaresuk Village, Pringsewu District, Pringsewu Regency in January 2022 with 30 organic rice farmers as respondents. The analytical method used is income analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study: (1) organic rice farming income in Pajaresuk Village, Pringsewu District, Pringsewu Regency of Rp. 3,810,040 per 0.33 ha with an R/C Ratio of 2.01, and (2) land area (X1), business experience (X2), education level (X3), age (X4), and commodity prices (X7) significantly affect organic rice income.

This study aims to research upon the effect of credit facilities granted by commercial banks on the Jordanian economy and the objectives of research includes the identifying the impacts of credit ratings on the Jordanian economy along with providing suitable recommendations. Therefore, the research has been divided into five chapters that include introduction, literature review, methodology, data findings and conclusion. Credit facility is a type of agreement that is made with the bank along with the person or organisation in terms of taking credit. The methodology of research study includes Positivism philosophy has been used as it helps in verifying accuracy of information with mathematical derivations. Deductive approach has been applied to identify the influence of credit facilities on the Jordanian economy to develop high quality analysis. Descriptive research design has been used so that collected information can be explained in a detailed manner along with charts and graphs. ...

COVID-19 has significantly affected the financial and commodity markets. The purpose of this investigation is to understand the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Dow Jones and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil returns in relation to other crises using the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. The results indicate that COVID-19 and the accompanying lockdown have adversely impacted both yields and that the impact on oil prices is more significant than on the Dow Jones index. The variance and squared residuals of oil prices and the Dow Jones reached their highest historical levels during the COVID-19 outbreak, even higher than during the global financial crisis, and especially the VaR of both markets reached their historical peak points during the COVID-19 era. The variance of WTI during COVID-19 is higher than that of DJI, as was also the case during the financial crisis. These findings confirm that COVID-19 has negatively impacted invest...

In this study, we present the computational method for risk assessment of the socio-economic development of regions. An attempt has been made to develop a method for the determination of integral risk indicators of socio-economic development based on the joint use of the methods of factor analysis and expert evaluation. This approach has increased the reliability of the calculations and made it possible to analyze the influence of socio-economic indicators on the risk level of socio-economic development. The integral risk indicator shows the effect of the inconsistency in the level of factor provision on the socio-economic development of the j-th region (district) in comparison with the general situation in the country (regions). The closer the value of integral risk indicator is to 1, the higher the level of risk in this region. Using Kyiv region districts as an example, the process of risk assessment for regional socio-economic development has been considered. The results obtained...

The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power (CHP) from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87 % of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), whilst worst case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e. Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk.

Megaprojects present significant economic risks to their financiers and sponsors. Factors such as inflation, cash flow issues, material and energy price hikes and change in government policies can cause such capital intensive projects to overrun planned budget and schedule allocations. Where the project is a commercial asset, delayed completion time and cost overruns usually have significant impact on the profitability of the project as well as the estimated returns on investment over the operational phase of the project. Understanding the dynamics of specific risks can thus be very crucial in designing containment measures to deal with their likely impact on the project. Using a case-study of the Edinburgh Trams project in Scotland, the dynamics of identified economic risks in transportation megaprojects is presented. Through the combination of interviews, questionnaires and non-participant observation, different economic risk factors were first identified. The identified factors w...

The negative influence of internal and external factors on the enterprise’s operating activity may lead to the realization of losses and economic-financial imbalance of the enterprise. Such situation leads to the economic risk, which can be avoided by diagnosis analysis. The manifestation of the economic risk has repercussions in: obtaining profit from operating activities, the maximization of the enterprise’s value and the increase of the market share. The operational risk can be detected by the method of forecast analysis “cost-volume-profit” or via coefficient of lever exploitation. This paper aims, on the basis of the information of a commerce company, to reveal the influence of risk in assessing the enterprise, as well as the possibilities to maximize its value and the increase in economic and financial performance in a competitive environment. The results of the research demonstrate the impact of the circulating expenditure structure on the enterprise’s financial results, as w...

In developing countries, ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) has not garnered sufficient attention, and its potential industrial applications remain largely unexplored and underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk associated with integrating UHPC technology into the construction industry, focusing on economic, technical, and environmental facets, as highlighted by global research endeavors in this domain. In this study, a risk model is validated by analyzing diverse UHPC mix proportions from various studies and assessing the associated risk indices concerning constituent materials. The findings demonstrate that incorporating UHPC as a more robust alternative to earlier generations is plausible when considering multiple perspectives within the concrete industry. The preeminence of compressive strength and the significance of service life as a pivotal cost factor during the maintenance period, coupled with comprehensive risk indices, underscore the excellence of UHPC. Comparing UHPC with high-performance concrete (HPC) and normal concrete (NC), it becomes evident that UHPC exerts a notably lower adverse impact on the ecosystem. Additionally, UHPC proves to be a more economically viable option, warranting the replacement of existing technologies.

Por meio deste estudo, objetivou-se estimar a rentabilidade de cultivares de soja em sistema de semeadura convencional (SSC) e direta (SSD) nos municípios de Campos dos Goytacazes e Quissamã, na região Norte Fluminense do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, utilizando-se o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). Buscouse identificar, por meio da análise de sensibilidade, os itens de maior peso na determinação da rentabilidade, além de estimar o risco de cada cultivar nos sistemas, via método de Monte Carlo. Em Campos dos Goytacazes, todas as cultivares avaliadas apresentaram rentabilidade satisfatória, sendo que os maiores VPL e TIR foram obtidos pela cultivar Vencedora em SSD. O preço da soja foi identificado como a variável de maior efeito sobre a rentabilidade para os dois sistemas, seguido das operações mecanizadas no SSC e fertilizantes no SSD. Nas condições da pesquisa, a cultivar mais promissora foi a Vencedora, quando cultivada no SSD, em Campos dos Goytacazes, oferece baixo risco econômico. Palavras-chave: rotação de culturas, Glycine max, Saccharum sp. ABSTRACT. Economic and risk evaluation of the soybean production in rotation with sugarcane in the North Fluminense Region. The objective of the study was to calculate the soy cultivar yield in systems of conventional sowing (SCS) and direct sowing (SDS) in Campos dos Goytacazes and Quissamã cities, in North Fluminense Region in the state of Rio de Janeiro, through Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Return Rate (IRR), identifying, by means of the sensitivity analysis, the most significant items to determine yield, besides estimating the risk of each cultivar in the systems through the Monte Carlo method. In Campos dos Goytacazes, all the cultivars presented acceptable yield. The largest ones are NPV and IRR, which were acquired by the 'Vencedora' in SDS cultivar. The price of the product was identified as the variable of strongest effect on the yield for the two systems, followed by the mechanized operations in SCS and fertilizers in SDS. Under research conditions, the most promising cultivar was 'Vencedora'. Once cultivated in the SDS in Campos dos Goytacazes, it offered low economic risk.

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Investment decisions made by investors are strongly influenced by their risk tolerance. Individual risk tolerance will influence their asset allocation decision. This paper used primary data to examine the factors influencing investor risk tolerance. Two factors considered in this study are demographics and general economic mood. Demographic characteristics include gender, occupation, age, marital status, income, and education. General economic mood is people's perceptions about the prospects for a country's economy at present and in the future. Using convenience sampling, we distributed questionnaires to investors in the Indonesia Stock Exchange and senior students. The total number of data used in this research is 200 respondents. This research found that the general economic mood, gender, and occupation positively impact investor risk tolerance. In contrast, our research found the negative impact of education and average monthly income on investors' risk tolerance. Further, age and marital status do not affect the investor's risk tolerance. This finding is important for financial planners to advise on personal investment decisions.

Viktimizacijos baimė (FOV) buvo istirta atsižvelgiant į tris pagrindinius bendruomenės konstruktus Kroatijos vietos bendruomenėse: policijos bendravimo kokybe, piliecių suvokimą apie nusikalstamumą ir sutrikimų bei socialine sanglaudą. Duomenys buvo surinkti is 2749 Kroatijos gyventojų naudojant Bendruomenės saugumo vertinimo apklausos skale (McKee, 2001) ir isanalizuoti atliekant linijine regresiją. Gyventojų suvokimas apie nusikalstamumą buvo geriausias, o policijos rysių kokybė – blogiausias FOV rodiklis. Buvo nustatytas atitinkamų rodiklių rysys skirtingose amžiaus grupėse tarp vyrų ir moterų.

This 9-yr study tested steer gains, residual aboveground biomass (AGB) in mid-July and early October, and economic returns and risk for tallgrass prairie grazed annually under season-long stocking (SLS) at 1.62 ha ? steer 21 until early October or intensive early stocking (IES) at 0.81 ha ? steer 21 until mid-July compared to a composite grazing system. The three-pasture, three-herd ''IES+ System'' is a 3-yr fixed sequence of SLS, IES, and IES (0.81 ha ? steer 21) plus late-season grazing (LSG; 1.62 ha ? steer 21) until early October (IES/LSG). All grazing treatments began in late April. Average gains per steer for SLS and SLS in the IES+ System did not differ, but were significantly less than gains for steers that grazed the entire season under IES/ LSG. Gains per steer in mid-July under IES alone or in combination with LSG were similar to the same repeated grazing treatments, but were significantly less than those for steers grazed season-long. Gains per hectare under SLS did not differ, but were significantly less than those for IES treatments and the IES+ System. Gain per hectare in July was similar for IES repeated annually and IES/LSG, but there was greater gain per hectare for IES-treated pastures rotated within the system. Residual grass and total aboveground biomass (AGB) in mid-July did not vary among years and was generally greater on SLS than IES. In early October, grass AGB was similar for all treatments except IES/LSG, which had less residual AGB. When pasture rent was charged per head, the IES+ System increased the 20-yr mean return per hectare by $5.98 compared to repeated use of IES, and $8.52 compared to using only SLS. Measures of economic risk were generally intermediate for the IES+ system compared to IES, which consistently had the highest risk, and SLS. Resumen El presente estudio conducido por 9 añ os, evaluó las ganancias de novillos y la biomasa residual (BR) a mediados de Julio y principios de Octubre, así como la ganancia económica y riesgo en praderas de pastos altos pastoreadas anualmente bajo un sistema de pastoreo continuo (SPC) con 1.62 ha ? novillo 21 hasta principios de Octubre, o un pastoreo intenso al inicio de la época de crecimiento (PIIC) con 0.81 ha ? novillo 21 hasta mediados de Julio, comparado con un sistema de pastoreo compuesto (PCOM). El PCOM (''Sistema+ PIC'') de tres-potreros, tres-hatos se compone de una secuencia fija de tres añ os de SPC, PIIC, y PIIC (0.81 ha ? novillo 21) más pastoreo al final de época de crecimiento (PFE; 1.62 ha ? novillo 21) hasta principios de Octubre (PIIC/SPC). Todos los tratamientos de pastoreo iniciaron a finales de Abril. El promedio de ganancia por novillo para el SPC y el SPC en el PCOM (''Sistema+ PIIC'') fue similar, pero fue significativamente inferior a la ganancia de los novillos pastoreando toda la estación bajo el PIIC/PFE. La ganancia por novillo a mediados de Julio bajo el PIIC solo, o en combinación con el SPC fue similar a los mismos tratamientos de pastoreo repetido, pero fue significativamente menor a la ganancia en pastoreo continuo. Las ganancias por hectárea en el SPC fueron similares, pero significativamente menores a los tratamientos del PIIC y el PCOM (''Sistema+ PIIC''). Las ganancias por hectárea en Julio fueron similares para el PIIC repetido anualmente y el PIIC/ PFE, pero fueron mejores para los potreros en el PIIC en rotación dentro del sistema PCOM. El pasto residual y la biomasa total (BR) a mediados de Julio no varió entre añ os y fue generalmente mayor en el SPC que en el PIIC. A principios de Octubre, BT del pasto fue similar para todos los tratamientos, excepto para el PIIC/PFE, que tuvo una menor biomasa residual. Cuando se incluyó la renta del potrero por cabeza, el PCOM (''Sistema+ PIIC'') incrementó la ganancia promedio de 20 añ os por hectárea a $5.98, comparada con el uso repetido del PIIC y $8.52 cuando se comparó con el SPC exclusivamente. Las medidas del riesgo económico fueron generalmente intermedias para el PCOM (''Sistema+ PIIC''), comparadas con el PIIC, el cual consistentemente tuvo el mayor riesgo junto con el SPC.

The purpose of this study is to effectively identify and assess economic risk in decision-making under project environments. A systematic literature review is used to identify the critical relationships between risk and economic decision-making. This paper highlights the implications of these relationships and how they impact a project-based environment. Results revealed salient points such as proper anchoring of project performance with previous risk performance, the necessity of effective, reliable and consistent methods of project risk performance evaluation, the importance of assessing projects in terms of risk-adjusted gains and that returns and risks in the investment portfolio are effectively determined to proactively organise priority portfolio hazards. These findings contribute to economic decision-making and risk management, both in theory and practice.

For water resource engineering projects, some potential risks that are unclear and difficult to investigate are the most crucial problem for engineers. This study presents a unique case of unknown risks, the Kang-Wei-Kou (KWK) Diversion project, which collapsed due to an unexpected hydraulic jump resulting from uneven regional rainfall. We used HEC-RAS incorporating Monte Carlo simulations for analyzing the potential risks to the original design of the KWK Diversion, concerning boundary conditions. An extreme value type I distribution was selected as the form of probability density function (PDF) to upstream discharge, whereas a normal distribution was selected as the form of PDF to downstream water depth, as boundary conditions. Applying the Monte Carlo method, the analysis revealed that the probability of failure was 7.5%, which was non-negligible and should have been considered in the design plan. This case study indicates that overlooking downstream conditions can lead a major facility to fail, and a stochastic analysis could be a way to find out potential risks. We also applied the cost-benefit analysis to review whether the design plans were appropriately estimated with careful risk based consideration.

For water resource engineering projects, some potential risks that are unclear and difficult to investigate are the most crucial problem for engineers. This study presents a unique case of unknown risks, the Kang-Wei-Kou (KWK) Diversion project, which collapsed due to an unexpected hydraulic jump resulting from uneven regional rainfall. We used HEC-RAS incorporating Monte Carlo simulations for analyzing the potential risks to the original design of the KWK Diversion, concerning boundary conditions. An extreme value type I distribution was selected as the form of probability density function (PDF) to upstream discharge, whereas a normal distribution was selected as the form of PDF to downstream water depth, as boundary conditions. Applying the Monte Carlo method, the analysis revealed that the probability of failure was 7.5%, which was non-negligible and should have been considered in the design plan. This case study indicates that overlooking downstream conditions can lead a major f...

The propensity to take risk underpins a wide variety of decision-making behavior, ranging from common ones such as asking for directions and trying out a new restaurant to more substantial economic decisions involving, for instance, one's investment or career. Despite the fundamental role of risk attitude in the economy, its genetic basis remains unknown. Using an experimental economics protocol combined with a classical twin strategy, we provide the first direct evidence of the heritability of economic risk attitude, at 57%. We do not find a significant role for shared environmental effects, a common observation in behavioral genetics that is contrary to commonly held views in economics. Our findings complement recent neuroeconomic studies in enhancing the understanding of the neurobiological basis of risk taking.

Puji syukur ke hadirat Allah SWT atas limpahan rahmat dan karunia-Nya, sehingga penulis dapat menyelesaikan makalah dengan judul "Manajemen Risiko Produksi Usahatani Padi". Shalawat serta salam semoga senantiasa tercurahkan kepada junjungan kita Nabi Muhammad SAW, beserta keluarga, sahabat, dan pengikutnya hingga akhir zaman. Penulisan makalah ini bertujuan untuk memenuhi tugas mata kuliah Manajemen Risiko Agribisnis pada Program Magister Agribisnis Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar. Selain itu, penulisan makalah ini juga bertujuan untuk menambah pengetahuan dan pemahaman tentang peran penting koperasi tani dalam meningkatkan kualitas produksi dan distribusi hasil pertanian di Indonesia. Semoga makalah ini dapat memberikan manfaat bagi pembaca, khususnya bagi para mahasiswa dan masyarakat luas pada umumnya.

While Banks’ performance was regarded as an important driver of economic growth, the relationship between Banks’ performance and economic growth is more complex than linear. Of many factors moderating this relationship, unsystematic risk management is one that received inadequate research attention. The present study aims to investigate the moderating effect of unsystematic risk management on the relationship between banks’ performance and Saudi Arabia's economic growth, which has been a key objective of the Kingdom Vision 2030. Focusing on a sample of 10 publicly traded banks during the period 2005-2017, this paper supports the positive relationship between Banks’ performance and economic growth. Even more, the results indicate that this positive relationship is weakened respectively by unsystematic risk management, especially by credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk.

The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power (CHP) from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87 % of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), whilst worst case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e. Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk.

Risk is an important factor in the business environment. Decisions have a risk associated with them, and the importance of this risk depends on the environment. Investing in the construction sector is not the same as investing in the banking sector. The possibility of loss requires one to know the maximum risk of sector each type and the implications for this on making the investment. In accordance with this, the objective of this report is to apply the economic and financial risks, which are more important from the business point of view in the construction sector from 2003 to 2013, which allows us to assess whether the risks in the years of growth in this sector are excessive. The data used to carry out this study come from the Bank for the Accounts of Companies Harmonized (BACH) and the methodology will be the formulas for economic and financial risk. The main results of this report are that the risk could advance the future problems of the construction sector while the report al...

The propensity to take risk underpins a wide variety of decision-making behavior, ranging from common ones such as asking for directions and trying out a new restaurant to more substantial economic decisions involving, for instance, one's investment or career. Despite the fundamental role of risk attitude in the economy, its genetic basis remains unknown. Using an experimental economics protocol combined with a classical twin strategy, we provide the first direct evidence of the heritability of economic risk attitude, at 57%. We do not find a significant role for shared environmental effects, a common observation in behavioral genetics that is contrary to commonly held views in economics. Our findings complement recent neuroeconomic studies in enhancing the understanding of the neurobiological basis of risk taking.

Risk preferences of farmers determine to adoption of a technology. This study aims to determine risk preferences of cabbage farmers in Baso Sub-district. Analysis of risk preferences using a model of risk preferences Kumbhakar 2002. Results show that organic cabbage farmers are risk-averse, impacting the slow adoption of organic farming.

We report results from an incentivized laboratory experiment to provide controlled evidence on the causal effects of alcohol consumption on risk preferences, time perception and altruism. Our design allows disentangling the pharmacological effects of alcohol intoxication from those mediated by expectations, as we compare behaviors of three groups of subjects: those participating to an experiment with no reference to alcohol, those exposed to the possibility of consuming alcohol but assigned to a placebo and those having effectively consumed alcohol. Once randomly assigned to one treatment, subjects were administered a series of consecutive economic tasks, being the sequence kept constant across treatments. After controlling for both the willingness to pay and the potential misperception of probabilities as elicited in the experiment, we do not detect any effect of alcohol in depleting subjects' risk tolerance. On the contrary, we find that alcohol intoxication increases impatience. Moreover, we find that alcohol makes subjects less generous as we detect a negative relationship between the blood alcohol concentration and the amount of money donated to NGOs.

In recent years, the most important approach of the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services is the approach of protecting family unity. With this approach, it is aimed to support and care of the child in their family environment. In this context, the social and economic support service and the care of children who need protection are considered as the last choice. It is provided that the children, who are evaluated as having no risk of neglect and abuse, live with their own family or relatives with the support of economic and / or social services. In this study, a family who requested assistance from Social and Economic Support (SED) services was examined.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey. For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey’s CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06. Our findings are two-fold. First, we find that both economic and financial risks have asymmetric effects on CDS premium, while political risks have symmetric effect on CDS. Second, we find that increases in financial risks raise CDS premium more than that of economic risks, while decreases in economic risks reduce CDS premium more than that of financial risks. The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.

The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of antecedent channel power sources on satisfaction, con ict, trust, dependence and long-term channel relationships between Korean retailers and manufacturers. The sample included 210 cosmetic retailers in 15 Korean cities. The results indicate that Korean manufacturers' exercised coercive power decreases retailers' economic and non-economic satisfaction, while exercised non-coercive power increases economic and non-economic satisfaction. Second, exercised coercive power increases both economic and non-economic con ict, and exercised non-coercive power decreases non-economic con ict. Third, retailers' economic and non-economic satisfaction is negatively related to economic and non-economic con ict. Fourth, trust is a mediating factor between satisfaction (economic and non-economic) and a long-term relationship. Finally, results indicate that neither con ict nor satisfaction is unidimensional; each has an economic and noneconomic dimension. This nding is an important contribution to the channel relations literature.

We conducted a multidisciplinary large-scale study of four cropping input production systems-organic, low input, medium input and high input-that fit along gradients of capital inputs and potential environmental effects to quantify system effects on yield. The yields varied over the years for each system; organic and low were not significantly different and medium and high were not significantly different but each of the two groups were different from each other. While organic production had low yields, the higher value of the organic fruit and the fresh sales and valueadded products produced an overall average profit of $ 3,724 acre-1. The low input system had a loss of $ 289 acre-1. The medium system produced the next highest profit at $ 1,575 acre-1 while the high input system was third in profitability at $ 1,374 acre-1. The risk simulation indicated that overall all systems could be profitable, but the higher inputs resulted in reduced risk of not being profitable.

Helsinki. We are grateful to Kenneth French for providing us with part of the data used in Section 4 of this study. We would also like to thank the anonymous referee for many insightful comments. Wook Sohn provided research assistance in revising the paper. Work on this paper was completed while Jimmy Liew was a Ph.D. student at Columbia Business School, prior to his employment at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: mengidentifikasi risiko dan keberanian petani dalam menghadapi risiko usahatani, serta menganalisis perilaku dan strategi rumah tangga petani dalam menghadapi risiko usahatani cabai kecil. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode eksplanatif berbasis data primer, yaitu data dari rumah tangga petani cabai kecil. Lokasi penelitian ditentukan secara bertingkat (multistage purposive sampling), dan petani sampel dipilih secara acak (random sampling) sebanyak 50 orang. Pengumpulan data menggunakan metode wawancara terstruktur. Pengukuran risiko menggunakan variance, standar deviasi dan koefisien variasi. Perilaku petani dalam menghadapi risiko dianalisis dengan regresi linear berganda; dan strategi pengendalian risiko dianalisis secara deskriptif kuantitatif. Hasil peneltian menunjukkan bahwa usahatani cabai kecil di Pulau Lombok termasuk berisiko produksi rendah (koefisien variasi 0,5), karena harga ditentukan oleh pasar dan berfluktuasi. Petani berp...

Analysis of paddy Supply in Bali Province The agricultural sector, especially the food crops sub-sector, has an important rolein meeting the needs of carbohydrates and as a source of nutrition for sustainability human life. One of the main food crops consumed in Indonesia is paddy. Therefore, paddy should be a commodity that is of concern because it relates to the needs of many people. However, the Province of Bali has not yet become an area food selfsufficient because their paddy production from year to year actually suffers decline, thus affecting the supply of paddy. This research aims to analyze the factors that influence supply in the Province of Bali and to determine the level of sensitivity (elasticity) of paddy supply in Bali Province. Research method using quantitative data with secondary data sources time series (14 years). Data collection using recording techniques and also document review. Data analysis study used multiple linear regression analysis to determine the factors that affect the supply of paddy in the Province of Bali and the elasticity of the supply of paddy in the Province Bali. The results show the amount of production in the previous year, the harvested area in the previous year, the price of corn in the previous year, the price of soybeans inpreviously, the price of urea fertilizer in the previous year jointly affected on rice supply in Bali Province. While the amount of production in previously, individually significantly influenced paddy supply in Bali Province. The value of elasticity of paddy supply in Bali Province for the variable amount of paddy production inthe previous year, the harvested area in the previous year was inelastic, the price of corn in the previous year, the price of soybeans in the previous year, urea fertilizer in the year of planting is inelastic.

Analysis of paddy Supply in Bali Province The agricultural sector, especially the food crops sub-sector, has an important rolein meeting the needs of carbohydrates and as a source of nutrition for sustainability human life. One of the main food crops consumed in Indonesia is paddy. Therefore, paddy should be a commodity that is of concern because it relates to the needs of many people. However, the Province of Bali has not yet become an area food self-sufficient because their paddy production from year to year actually suffers decline, thus affecting the supply of paddy. This research aims to analyze the factors that influence supply in the Province of Bali and to determine the level of sensitivity (elasticity) of paddy supply in Bali Province. Research method using quantitative data with secondary data sources time series (14 years). Data collection using recording techniques and also document review. Data analysis study used multiple linear regression analysis to determine the fac...

Risk is an important factor in the business environment. Decisions have a risk associated with them, and the importance of this risk depends on the environment. Investing in the construction sector is not the same as investing in the banking sector. The possibility of loss requires one to know the maximum risk of sector each type and the implications for this on making the investment. In accordance with this, the objective of this report is to apply the economic and financial risks, which are more important from the business point of view in the construction sector from 2003 to 2013, which allows us to assess whether the risks in the years of growth in this sector are excessive. The data used to carry out this study come from the Bank for the Accounts of Companies Harmonized (BACH) and the methodology will be the formulas for economic and financial risk. The main results of this report are that the risk could advance the future problems of the construction sector while the report al...

Risiko produksi merupakan sumber risiko yang berasal dari kegiatan produksi diantaranya adalah gagal panen, rendahnya produktivitas, kerusakan barang yang ditimbulkan oleh serangan hama dan penyakit, perbedaan iklim dan cuaca, kesalahan sumberdaya manusia dan masih banyak lagi. Tujuan penelitian yaitu 1). Mengidentifikasi risiko yang mempengaruhi produksi usahatani jagung. 2). Menganalisis tingkat risiko usahatani jagung. 3). Menganalisis berapa besar produksi dan produktivitas usahatani jagung 4). menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi usahatani jagung. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Desa Bonto Majannang, Kecamatan Sinoa, Kabupaten Bantaeng. Pelaksanaan penelitian dimulai dari bulan Maret-April 2021. Populasi dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 400 orang dengan sampel 40 responden. Analisis data yang digunakan yaitu analisis deskriptif, analisis koefisien variasi dan analisis regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini adalah risiko yang dialami oleh petani yaitu cuaca dan iklim dengan skor 108, rata-rata 2,7 dan kategori tinggi. Hama dan penyakit dengan skor 67, rata-rata 1,6 dan kategori rendah. Kesalahan teknis dengan skor 54, rata-rata 1,3 dan kategori rendah. Tingkat risiko produksi dialami oleh petani adalah risiko rendah dengan nilai 0,13 artinya nilai koefisien variasi lebih kecil dari nilai 0,5. Produksi dan produktivitas usahatani jagung dengan rata-rata produksi 4.180 kg dan rata-rata produktivitas 5,57 ton/ha. Produksi usahatani jagung secara bersama-sama dipengaruhi oleh luas lahan, tenaga kerja, benih, pupuk urea, pupuk ZA, herbisida. Secara parsial variabel luas lahan dan tenaga kerja berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produksi usahatani jagung.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey. For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey’s CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06. Our findings are two-fold. First, we find that both economic and financial risks have asymmetric effects on CDS premium, while political risks have symmetric effect on CDS. Second, we find that increases in financial risks raise CDS premium more than that of economic risks, while decreases in economic risks reduce CDS premium more than that of financial risks. The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.

The objective of this study was to provide empirical insight into dairy farmers' goals, relative risk attitude, sources of risk and risk management responses. The study also examines whether organic dairy farming, leads to important risk sources not experienced in conventional farming and, if so, how those extra risks is managed. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of conventional (n=370) and organic (n = 160) dairy farmers in Norway. The results show that organic farmers have somewhat different goals than conventional farmers, and that the average organic farmer is less risk averse. Institutional risk was perceived as the most important source of risk, independently of conventional or organic production system, while organic farmers indicated greater concern about forage yield risk. Keeping cash on hand was the most important strategy to manage risk for all dairy farmers. Diversification and different kinds of flexibility was regarded as a more important risk management strategies among organic than conventional farmers.

An economic feasibility study must consider parameters and uncertainties inherent to a mining project, in which the risks must be properly quantified. An economic viability study by Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) elaborated for the implementation of Mega Mineração, in Pernambuco, Brazil, indicates a positive Net Present Value (NPV) of the deterministic scenario whose Internal Rate of Return (IRR) was higher than Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return (MARR), which indicates the project to be highly profitable. The probabilistic analysis, however, considered several risks in its assumptions and displayed that there was a 99.77% probability for the NPV to be positive and 49.98% to be greater than the deterministic NPV. Although more robust and reliable, the possibility of breaking the contract by either party was not considered in this analysis, which would make it impossible to obtain the results predicted for some scenarios. This study aims to assess the consequences of a breach of contract in each of the 15 years foreseen for the project through a probabilistic approach regarding risk and sensitivity analysis. The results indicate catastrophic consequences for the enterprise if the breach occurs in the first year of the project and suggest that the probability of achieving higher rates is attached to longer scenarios, by postponing or avoiding the breach of contract.

The value of phytoextracting crops (plants cultivated for soil remediation) depends on the profitability of the sequential investment in a conversion technology aimed at the economic valorization of the plants. However, the net present value (NPV) of an investment in such an innovative technology is risky due to technical and economic uncertainties. Therefore, decision makers want to dispose of information about the probability of a positive NPV, the largest possible loss, and the crucial economic and technical parameters influencing the NPV. This paper maps the total uncertainty in the NPV of an investment in fast pyrolysis for the production of combined heat and power (CHP) from willow cultivated for phytoextraction in the Belgian Campine. The probability of a positive NPV has been calculated by performing Monte Carlo simulations. Information about possible losses has been provided by means of experimental design. Both methods are then combined in order to identify the key economic and technical parameters influencing the project's profitability. It appears that the case study has a chance of 87 % of generating a positive NPV with an expected value of 3 million euro (MEUR), whilst worst case scenarios predict possible losses of 7 MEUR. The amount of arable land, the biomass yield, the purchase price of the crop, the policy support and the product yield of fast pyrolysis are identified as the most influential parameters. It is concluded that both methods, i.e. Monte Carlo simulations and experimental design, provide decision makers with complementary information with regard to economic risk.

ABSTRAK Pestisida kimia merupakan salah satu masukan dalam produksi padi yang berfungsi untuk menekan kehilangan hasil oleh serangan hama dan penyakit. Penggunaan pestisida kimia harus bijaksana karena selain memberi manfaat juga menimbulkan bahaya terhadap kesehatan dan lingkungan. Banyak petani yang menggunakan pestisida kimia dengan dasar pencegahan, yaitu tanpa mempertimbangkan keadaan serangan hama dan penyakit sehingga penggunaannya cenderung berlebih. Pengendalian Hama Terpadu (PHT) diperkenalkan kepada petani melalui Sekolah Lapangan (SL) PHT, dengan tujuan untuk nrengurangi pestisida kimia,  dan hanya digunakan jika memang diperlukan. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa SLPHT telah mengubah cara pengambilan keputusan dalam menggunakan pestisida kimia. Keadaan ini menyebabkan penggunaan pestisida kimia menjadi berkurang. ABSTRACT Chemical pesticide is one of the inputs in rice production used to protect yield loss caused by pest attack. Chemical pesticides should be used wisel...

Perubahan iklim telah menjadi isu yang nyata dalam pertanian. Dampak negatif terhadap sektor pertanian tidak hanya melibatkan panen, tetapi juga sektor sekunder yang terkait dengan pertanian. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah: (1) mendeskripsikan manajemen risiko dalam menghadapi risiko perubahan iklim oleh petani tembakau di Kabupaten Temanggung; (2) determinan variabel yang mempengaruhi keputusan petani dalam manajemen risiko, seperti pendapatan, pendidikan, usia petani, persepsi risiko, dan luas lahan dengan menggunakan Willingness to Pay (WTP). Perubahan iklim adalah fenomena alam yang tidak bisa dihindari. Gejala fenomena alam ini adalah bencana curah hujan, kelembaban, radiasi dan suhu banjir, kekeringan atau pergeseran musiman. Pertanian tembakau memiliki kerentanan terhadap perubahan iklim. Para petani memiliki potensi untuk mengalami kerugian dan produksi tembaku di Temanggung sebagai ujubg tombak penurunan perekonomian Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif untuk menganalisis variabel yang diduga mempengaruhi keputusan petani untuk mengurangi risikonya. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan kuesioner, wawancara, observasi, dan studi pustaka. CVM adalah pendekatan kuantitatif yang digunakan untuk mendapatkan keputusan atau keinginan petani untuk mengurangi risiko dalam menghadapi perubahan iklim. Berdasarkan survei dan wawancara tentang strategi adaptasi untuk petani tembakau di Kecamatan Parakan adalah dengan mulsa, mundurnya musim tanam, pendagiran dan konservasi lahan. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan petani tentang manajemen risiko dengan Willingness To Pay (WTP) adalah tingkat pendidikan dan persepsi risiko.

Masalah utama dalam pengembangan sektor pertanian adalah ketisakpastian. Ketidakpastian menjadikan banyak masyarakat yang yang tidak memilik sektor pertanian sebagai pengembangan bisnis, utamanya ditingkat usahatani. Risiko ketidakpastian ini memperngwaruhi petani dalam menjalankan usahataninya. Petani mangga di Kabupaten Cirebon juga tidak terlepas dari risiko ketidakpastian dalam usahatani mangga yang dilakukannya. Beberapa petani mangga memilih untuk membiarkan pohon mangganya tanpa proses pemeliharaan yang dilakukan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi risiko usahatani mangga dalam pengembangan agrowisata di Kabupaten Cirebon. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui wawancara, kuesioner, wawancara, focus group discussion dan dokumentasi. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Mix method yaitu menggunakan analisis deskriptif dan Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Hasil identifikasi risiko adalah risiko dalam usahatani mangga digolongkan dalam 4 kategori yaitu risiko...

Rata-rata kebutuhan kedelai per tahun adalah 2,2 juta ton, namun pemenuhan kebutuhan kedelai sebanyak 67,99 persen harus diimpor dari luar negeri (Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Kementerian Pertanian, 2016). Hal ini terjadi karena produksi dalam negeri tidak mampu mencukupi permintaan. Tujuan ini adalah untuk mengetahui : 1) Mengetahui kelayakan usahatani kedelai di lahan darat di Kecamatan Jatiwaras. 2) Pengaruh penggunaan faktor-faktor produksi secara bersama-sama (simultan) dan secara sendiri-sendiri (parsial) terhadap hasil produksi pada usahatani kedelai di lahan di Kecamatan Jatiwaras. 3) Tingkat efisiensi penggunaan faktor-faktor produksi pada usahatani kedelai di lahan di Kecamatan Jatiwaras. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode survey eksplanatory (Explanatory Research), dengan mengambil kasus pada usahatani kedelai pada lahan darat di Kecamatan Jatiwaras Kabupaten Tasikmalaya. Dengan menggunakan rumus slovin diperoleh jumlah sampel 53 orang dari populasi petani kedelai sebanyak 111 orang. Analisis fungsi produksi Cobb-Douglas digunakan untuk mengetahui pengaruh penggunaan faktor produksi, Efisiensi penggunaan faktor produksi dianalisa dengan menggunakan efisiensi harga. Alokasi penggunaan input dikatakan efisien apabila nilai produk marginal input (NPMXi) sama dengan harga input (PXi). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah 1) Usahatani kedelai dikatakan layak untuk diusahakan dengan R/C rata-rata 2,16. 2) Secara simultan dapat dinyatakan bahwa penggunaan faktor produksi yaitu luas lahan, benih, NPK, POC, petrobio, inkulum rhizobium, pestisida, dan tenaga kerja secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap produksi kedelai. 3) Secara parsial menunjukkan, dari delapan faktor produksi yang diteliti ternyata penggunaan faktor produksi lahan, benih, pupuk NPK, pestisida, pupuk petrobio, dan faktor produksi rhizobium dan tenaga kerja berpengaruh signifikan terhadap hasil produksi usahatani kedelai karena tingkat signifikansinya berada dibawah 0,10, untuk penggunaan faktor produksi POC tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap hasil produksi karena tingkat signifikansinya berada di atas 0,10. 4) Secara ekonomi penggunaan faktor produksi pada usahatani kedelai belum efisien, tingkat efisiensi untuk pestisida dan tenaga kerja mempunyai peluang untuk ditingkatkan, sedangkan untuk penggunaan faktor produksi benih dan tenaga kerja sudah berlebih, jika terus ditambahkan akan mengakibatkan berkurangnya pendapatan yang diperoleh petani

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This study aims to determine: (1) Effect of land area, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and labor on rice production, (2) The most dominant factor influences rice production, (3) the state of return to scale rice production in Sungai Batang Village. The population of this study was rice farmers in Sungai Batang Village. The samples taken in this study were 84 rice farmers. Data collection techniques are by conducting literature studies, observations, distribution of questionnaires and interviews. The data analysis technique is by classical assumption test and using multiple linear regression analysis methods. The results showed that the land area, seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and labor together (simultan) had a positive and significant effect on rice production.This is evidenced by f-statistics> f-table (56,7> 2.21). Land area, seeds, fertilizers and labor have a positive and significant effect, while pesticides do not have a significant effect. Return to scale on rice production shows constant return to scale because the number of coefficients of each variable is equal to 1%.

The propensity to take risk underpins a wide variety of decision-making behavior, ranging from common ones such as asking for directions and trying out a new restaurant to more substantial economic decisions involving, for instance, one's investment or career. Despite the fundamental role of risk attitude in the economy, its genetic basis remains unknown. Using an experimental economics protocol combined with a classical twin strategy, we provide the first direct evidence of the heritability of economic risk attitude, at 57%. We do not find a significant role for shared environmental effects, a common observation in behavioral genetics that is contrary to commonly held views in economics. Our findings complement recent neuroeconomic studies in enhancing the understanding of the neurobiological basis of risk taking.

This paper tries to analyse to what extent the public debt yield spread of German and Spanish sovereign bonds is related with the Spanish economic fundamentals. An analysis of different Spanish economic variables (public debt/GDP, private debt/GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate and borrowing capacity) from 1990 to 2012 is done previous to a cointegration analysis. Results do not allow us to confirm strongly the long term relationship between public debt yield spread and the referred economic variables as a whole null hypothesis. In this sense, there is not enough evidence to show that premium risk evolution is determined by Spanish economic fundamentals progression in the long term, and thus a speculative component might be considered as a determinant. Therefore, the referred spread role as an economic policy objective should be relativized since it cannot be proved that tackling the analysed economic variables could reduce the spread significantly.