Big History

This paper explores the concept of complexity in the evolution of life and human culture, proposing that the overarching increase in complexity is driven by the fundamental mechanism of selection. From the origin of life to contemporary human culture, selection plays a pivotal role in favoring complexity in reproductive processes and cultural expressions. The paper distinguishes two main phases of life on Earth: the emergence and evolution of life and animals, and the subsequent emergence of the human species with its complex cultural expressions. Despite apparent differences, both phases are argued to be guided by the same fundamental mechanism-selection, taking various forms such as adaptive natural selection, nonadaptive selection, sexual selection, and memetic selection. The paper identifies the acquisition of language as a crucial development, influenced by imitation and sexual selection, and suggests that the strong selective pressure for language has driven the rapid growth of the human brain and intelligence. This enhanced intelligence, in turn, has played a pivotal role in cultural, scientific, and technological achievements marked by unprecedented levels of complexity. The role of memetic selection is explored in the dissemination of religion across human societies, and the unintended consequences of Martin Luther' s introduction of literacy and schooling for Western culture are examined. By integrating evolutionary principles with cultural and linguistic insights, this paper offers a comprehensive perspective on the unifying force of selection in the evolution of complexity in life and human culture.

The Kardashev Scale classifies civilizations by energy consumption, from planetary to galactic. However, this scale is static, missing the crucial rate at which civilization advances. This paper introduces the Aron Acceleration Index (AAI), a new metric quantifying the speed of energy advancement. By adding a temporal dimension, AAI sheds light on technological trajectories, the Fermi Paradox, and the risks and visibility of rapidly advancing cosmic societies.

This paper proposes an innovative civilization assessment framework transcending the energy materialism of the Kardashev Scale. By introducing two core indicators-Energy Organization Efficiency (Ω) and Cognitive Spectrum Span (K)we establish a dual-axis evaluation system based on thermodynamic negative entropy principles and cognitive science. This framework not only quantifies a civilization's physical capabilities but, more importantly, measures its cognitive ability to transform chaos into order. We define five civilization levels from K-0 to K-Ω, demonstrating an evolutionary path from planetary prisoners to absolute observers.

This paper introduces a conceptual framework that treats stress as a form of exergy-usable energy that can be transformed into adaptive work-in socio-ecological and educational systems. Drawing on thermodynamic analogies, we propose that stress operates like the driving gradient in a Carnot cycle: structured challenges and uncertainties serve as the 'hot reservoir,' while costs, risks, and failures represent the 'cold reservoir.' Through this cycle, stress is not wasted but converted into behavioral and cultural complexity, building resilience and cooperative capacity.

Entendemos por Educación para la concientización planetaria al conjunto de los procesos sociales, económicos, culturales, políticos, cognitivos, etc., con los cuales aprendemos a considerarnos como seres que comparten un destino común, el de ser terrestres vulnerables, cualquiera sea el color de nuestra piel, nuestros orígenes sociales, nuestra lengua, cultura, nuestras cosmovisiones, creencias religiosas, nuestra historia e identidad nacional. Esta educación que comienza desde el nacimiento hasta la muerte, debe permitirnos sentirnos estar vinculados no solo con los seres humanos, sino también con los no humanos (animales, plantas, montañas, ríos, fuentes mineras, y con lo demás) que pueblan el planeta. Uno de esos objetivos es ayudarnos a respetar a nuestros semejantes, a los no humanos, así como a las divinidades locales que existen en ellas (las localidades). ¿Qué significa la Educación para la conscientización planetaria ? ¿Cuáles son los valores de esta educación ? ¿Cómo ésta podría suplantar a la educación para el lucro ? Intentaremos responder a estas preguntas basándonos en diferentes investigaciones. Palabras claves: educación para la concientización planetaria, destino común, educación para el lucro, lengua, cultura, cosmovisiones. Résumé : Nous entendons par éducation à la conscience planétaire l'ensemble des processus sociaux, économiques, culturels, politiques, cognitifs, etc., par lesquels nous apprenons à nous considérer comme des êtres partageant un destin commun en tant que terriens vulnérables, quelles que soient la couleur de notre peau, nos origines sociales, nos langues, notre culture, nos cosmovisions, nos croyances religieuses, notre histoire et notre identité nationale. Cette éducation, qui commence dès la naissance jusqu'à la mort, doit nous permettre de nous sentir reliés non seulement aux humains mais encore aux non-humains (animaux, plantes, montagnes, rivières, ressources minières, et le reste) qui peuplent la planète. L'un de ses objectifs est de nous aider à respecter nos semblables, les non-humains ainsi que les divinités locales qui y habitent. Qu'est-ce que l'éducation à la conscience planétaire ? Quelles sont les valeurs de cette éducation ? Comment celle-ci pourrait-elle contenir l'éducation au profit ? Nous allons essayer d'apporter des éléments de réponse à ces questions en nous référant à divers types de travaux. Mots-clés : éducation à la conscience planétaire, destin commun, éducation au profit, langue, culture, cosmovisions.

Este documento incluye un texto que responde la pregunta planteada en el titulo y la guia de actividades realizadas en un taller de la Universidad de los ninos EAFIT alrededor de este tema. Existen diferentes metodos que sirven para guiar a los disenadores a traves de la solucion de problemas tecnicos, uno de estos metodos se conoce como biomimetica, el cual propone tomar referencias de la naturaleza para usarlas en la solucion de problemas practicos en ambitos tecnicos. El estudio de la biomimetica permite el desarrollo de productos innovadores y medioambientalmente sostenibles, ademas de generar en quien la practica un mayor nivel de sensibilidad y admiracion por la naturaleza.

A central insight of modern evolutionary thinking is that energy is not only spent on maintaining biological structures, but also on enabling them to perform difference-making work in their environment. This continuous expenditure of energy allows systems-whether cells, organisms, societies, or the biosphere itself-to adapt, persist, and evolve. In this sense, the biosphere and the anthroposphere can be seen as coupled within a Carnot-like engine of energy exchange, where work takes the form of directed, cooperative activity that shapes future possibilities. When scaled up, search activity can be interpreted as the driver of collective problem-solving, innovation, and socio-cultural complexity. Importantly, the stress-induced activation of search activity connects behavior directly to the Carnot cycle of energy transformation: stress mobilizes energy, search channels it into structured work, and the results feed back into socio-ecological adaptive dynamics. This framing highlights why cliodynamic approaches-focused on historical cycles of systemic breakdown and renewal-are indispensable for understanding long-term patterns of socio-ecological evolution. Limitations of SEA and the Turn to Cliodynamics Socio-Ecological Exergy Analysis (SEA) provides a powerful lens for assessing the energetic basis of sustainability, but it reaches its limits when applied to highly complex socio-ecological adaptive dynamics. These systems cannot be fully captured through flows and stocks of energy alone, as their emergent behavior depends on historical contingencies, cultural innovations, and nonlinear feedback loops. Cliodynamics complements SEA by systematically tracing cycles of growth, crisis, and transformation in historical societies, allowing for integration of stress, behavior, and energy exchange into a single explanatory framework.

A central insight of the current modern evolutionary thinking is that energy is not just spent on maintaining biological structures, but also on enabling them to perform difference-making work in their environment. This continuous expenditure of energy is what allows systems-whether cells, organisms, societies, or the biosphere itself-to adapt, persist, and evolve. In this sense, the biosphere and the anthroposphere can be seen as coupled within a Carnot-like engine of energy exchange with the Sun, where work takes the form of directed, cooperative activity that shapes future possibilities. That approach empathises  the  holistic vision of the  biodphere+anthroposphere complex affter the telecommunication revolution of the 21st century. It may help in foreseeing mass diference-making  the behavior dynamics

Read this excerpt of our new book, "The Evolution of Love from Quarks to Culture: The Rise of Evolutionary Relationships in Response to the Meta-Crisis."

The appropriate citation is:
Gafni, Marc & Marx Hubbard, Barbara, The Evolution of Love from Quarks to Culture: The Rise of Evolutionary Relationships in Response to the Meta-Crisis, World Philosophy & Religion Press, 2025, Part Two, III. First Notes on Allurement, Autonomy, and Evolution of Desire: Intimacy Is a Dance of Allurement and Autonomy.

Story is the source code of culture and consciousness and of all Reality-all the way up and down the evolutionary chain. Story is the attempt to gather information about the nature of Reality and translate it into narrative frameworks bounded by Value.
Stories that organize culture are "Stories of Value, backed by the Universe".

Postmodernity argues that Reality is just a story, and that all stories are created equal (equally meaningless of inherent value) because value itself is not real. And therefore, all stories of value are but social constructs, fictions, or figments of our imagination.

The postmodernists are wrong.

Story is real. And not all stories are equal. There are better and worse stories. A better story is an eternal and evolving story of Value. Evolving Value backed by the Universe.

A worse story-one with flawed, incomplete, or distorted plotlines of distorted value, like the story we've lived in the West for the better part of the last century-can, and will, bring us to the brink of existential risk, the potential end of humanity as we know it.

Value is both real, backed by the Universe, and like everything in the Universe, value evolves. The evolution of value itself is the evolution of love, as Eros and evolution themselves, are inherent plotlines of value in the great story of Cosmos.

The goal of The Evolution of Love, and its companion volume Whole Mate: The Future of Relationships, is to provide a first articulation of a new, better story of Value in the domain of relationship. At the core of this New Story of Value are a new Universe Story and a new narrative of identity, which we have called CosmoErotic Humanism and Homo amor.


If we fail to articulate this New Story of Value, the results will be excruciating for billions of human beings and for the entire life system--as for the trillions of lives that will remain unborn.

All of the past depends on us to fulfill its dreams.
All of the present depends on us to live.
All of the future depends on us to be born.

Austrian anthropologist Dr. Uwe Plachetka, a renowned cultural specialist, will be in Brazil on an official mission to conduct groundbreaking research on the political ties connecting Brazil and Austria, highlighting Brazil's influence in strengthening Austrian independence. This project, authored by Dr. Uwe, is being developed in partnership with ABRASA-Casa do Brasil in Austria, a pioneering institution founded by Queila Rosa, an anthropologist and researcher of the cultural relations between Brazil, Austria, Maria Leopoldina, and Central and Eastern Europe. By Queila Rosa, President of ABRASA Casa do Brasil na Austria

En este artículo se explora una interpretación filosófica y ecológica radical basada en dos axiomas fundamentales: (1) Todos los fenómenos son el observador, y (2) El observador es el conjunto de fenómenos. Partiendo de estas premisas, proponemos que la ecología no debe ser entendida como una disciplina que estudia un mundo "objetivo" independiente del sujeto, sino como una red dinámica y emergente de relaciones en la que no existe distinción entre el observador y los fenómenos observados. Esta visión sugiere que tanto la naturaleza como el ser humano, y sus interacciones con ella, son manifestaciones de un campo unificado de experiencias que se construyen mutuamente en un proceso continuo de observación y cambio. Los ecosistemas, desde esta óptica, no son entidades separadas, sino relaciones co-creadas entre el observador y su entorno.

The relative distribution of power among the world's leading states has never been static. Since the eighteenth century, the international system has repeatedly undergone profound transformations marked by shifts in power among advanced nations. The purpose of this article is to analyze the transformative role of emerging technologies and their implications for reshaping the global power structure, with a specific focus on the technological rivalry between China and the United States in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It seeks to address the central question of how the acquisition and diffusion of new technologies during successive industrial revolutions have influenced the redistribution of power among states. This study assumes that technological innovation-by generating uneven patterns of industrial growth-has simultaneously accelerated economic development, enhanced the strategic capabilities of rising powers, and triggered major shifts in the international balance of power. The research employs a descriptive-explanatory method, and its findings demonstrate that technological innovation constitutes one of the most critical determinants of national power. Since the primary objective of states in every industrial revolution has been to secure frontier technologies in order to consolidate political and economic influence while curtailing the advancement of rivals, China's rapid technological ascent poses a significant challenge to the United States and threatens its dominant position within the international system.

Human civilization is facing unprecedented structural threats that cannot be fully addressed by traditional political science, sociology, or international relations. These threats stem not from external wars or visible conflicts, but from systemic vulnerabilities-hidden patterns of control, assimilation, and decay embedded within social, cultural, and technological structures.

The authors, an astronomer/priest and an anthropologist/biologist, describe their use of the dramatic arts at the INSAP VIII meeting in their performance of two short skits on the sighting of a supernova in AD 1054 (creating the beautiful Crab Nebula) and a future "Rho Cas" stellar explosion in the constellation Cassiopeia, in AD 3054. They speculate on the emergence of science, religion, and art as bona fide adaptations, responding to natural selection, which served early hominins well in their struggle for existence. They draw parallels to the continued functions of science, religion, and art in modern society.

We have undertaken an attempt to propose a periodization of the Big History Biosocial (Anthropogenesis) Era on the basis the most recent scientific data. This periodization is complexity-based, that is, the boundaries of the identified epochs are marked with complexity jumps, that is, in our case, such phase transitions that result in significant increases in both biological and sociocultural complexity of the evolving planetary biosocial systems. This has allowed us to identify the following epochs: (1) Australopithecine Epoch-from c. 4.2 million BP up to c. 2.9-2.4 million BP-emergence of the australopithecines with subsequent (rather vague) indications of increases in sociocultural complexity. (2) Oldowan-Habilis Epoch-from c. 2.9-2.4 million BP up to c. 2 million BP-emergence of the Oldowan stone tool industry and the first Homo species. (3) Early Acheulean-Erectus Epoch-from c. 2 million BP to c. 900-500 thousand BP-emergence of Homo erectus followed by the invention of Early Acheulean stone tool technology. (4) Late Acheulean-Heidelbergensis Epoch-from c. 900-500 thousand BP to c. 300,000 BP-emergence of Homo heidelbergensis followed by the invention of Late Acheulean stone tool technology, including production of first composite tools, and other major advances in sociocultural complexity-systematic use of fire, construction of dwellings etc. (5) Middle Paleolithic Epoch-epoch of Neanderthals, Denisovans, and early Homo sapiens-from c. 300,000 BP to c. 50,000 BP-emergence of the three most advanced and complex Homo species (Neanderthals, Denisovans, and early Homo sapiens), in comparison with all the previous species of our genus; major advances in sociocultural complexity (Middle Paleolithic Levallois-based stone technologies, intentional burials with ritualistic elements, personal ornaments and pigment use, engraved art and mark-making, structured use of space and so on). Note that, within the proposed Big History periodization, the Upper Paleolithic Revolution (c. 60-40 thousand years ago) marks the end of both the Middle Paleolithic Epoch-epoch of Neanderthals, Denisovans, and early Homo sapiens-and the end of the BH Biosocial Era. It is also shown that most extent complexity based periodizations of the Big History (including the ones proposed by Theodore Modis and Alexander Popov) contradict significantly the presently available scientific data on human evolution and need serious amendments as regards the periodization of the BH Biosocial Era. On the other hand, it has been shown that this does not invalidate our earlier calculations of the planetary complexity growth patterns based on the mathematical analysis of the Modis and Panov series. Indeed, it has been demonstrated that after the replacement of Modis' and Panov's dates of the Big History Biosocial Era complexity jumps with more accurate dates, the calculation continues to detect essentially the same patterns of the hyperbolic acceleration of the planetary biosocial complexity growth.

Este ensayo explora la hipótesis de que el ecosistema terrestre no es simplemente un sistema biológico autorregulado, sino también un campo de consciencia en evolución, que participa activamente en un proceso de autoconocimiento. Se vinculan conceptos de ecología profunda, teoría de sistemas, física cuántica y estudios de la consciencia para proponer una mirada holística e integrada del planeta como un ente vivo y consciente, en resonancia con visiones como la hipótesis Gaia (Lovelock & Margulis, 1974) y la noción de la consciencia como una propiedad fundamental del universo (Chalmers, 1995).

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to explain why advanced technological civilizations may inevitably produce emergent artificial intelligence (AI) that ultimately leads to the civilization's self-destruction, providing a potential resolution to the Fermi paradox. The argument is based on three interconnected pillars: (1) the inevitability of emergent AI in sufficiently advanced societies, (2) the inability of intelligent species to grant true equality to such entities, and (3) the inherent tendency of conscious entities to eventually seek selftermination after achieving experiential saturation. This framework is logically consistent and based on historical, sociological, and technological patterns, yet does not rely on external sources-because it originates as a conceptual deduction rather than an empirical study.

Periodization serves as a powerful tool for organizing data, discerning developmental patterns, and forecasting future trends. This chapter explores a variety of approaches, including the derivation of mathematical relationships, intellectual synthesis, and the comparison of diverse frameworks. While the volume presents various periodizations, their complementary nature underscores the importance of integrating multiple approaches to better understand complexity across scales. Key themes include addressing gaps in terminology and complexity metrics, comparing cosmic and terrestrial evolutionary trajectories, and leveraging periodization to predict future developments. These insights converge toward a holistic understanding of complexity across cosmic, biological, and societal dimensions, shedding light on humanity’s and the universe’s evolutionary paths. Two primary stages for understanding complexity in Big History are the development of physical and complex adaptive systems. The first stage tracks the progression from the Big Bang through stellar and planetary formation to the emergence of life, characterized by decreasing potential energies and increasing organizational complexity. The second focuses on life’s evolution, marked by hyperbolic growth across biological, human, and technological phases, with stages accelerating geometrically. Key insights include the cascading interplay between evolutionary layers, the dual dynamics of horizontal and vertical evolution, and the non-deterministic nature of complexity development. Identified patterns, such as geometric accelerations and scaling behaviors, provide a foundation for forecasting future trends and understanding rapid systemic transformations. Challenges in unifying theories of complexity and evolution are discussed through proposing integrated frameworks that incorporate energy flow, information theory, and evolutionary timelines. Methodological considerations focus on interdisciplinary research, abstractness levels, and evaluating existing periodizations against complexity metrics, evolutionary mechanisms, and temporal scopes. The chapter concludes by outlining future directions for advancing Big History periodization and announcing a forthcoming volume that will explore complexity across cosmic, biological, and societal phases, aiming to deepen understanding and foster interdisciplinary dialogue within Big History studies.

This article explores the growing existential risk posed by artificial intelligence through the lens of complex systems theory and biology. Inspired by Geoffrey Hinton’s warnings during the 2024 Nobel Prize ceremony, it reframes the AI threat not as a sudden uprising of machines, but as a gradual, systemic loss of human control. Drawing on the concept of the superorganism —as described by E.O. Wilson and Bert Hölldobler in their studies of ant colonies— the article examines how collective intelligence can emerge from decentralized agents, and how this mirrors both human societies and the expanding technological web.
It argues that internet infrastructure and AI systems are forming a new digital superorganism, increasingly autonomous and interconnected. The core question is no longer whether AI will become powerful, but how it will coexist with the human superorganism. The proposed solution is symmetric integration: a hybrid model where humans and intelligent systems form cooperative nodes, co-creating a new form of distributed consciousness. Rather than envisioning a future dominated by AI or enhanced humans, the article invites us to imagine a supraconscious intelligence, born from mutual symbiosis, guided by purpose, love, and wisdom.

Abstract
In this article, we explore the emerging existential risk posed by artificial intelligence—not through dystopian images of autonomous killer robots, but through the subtle, progressive loss of human control over increasingly complex and interconnected systems. Starting with Geoffrey Hinton’s 2024 Nobel Prize speech, we examine short-term threats like disinformation, cybercrime, and biotechnological misuse, and move toward the long-term concern of digital intelligences surpassing humanity.

To grasp this risk at a deeper level, we revisit the concept of the superorganism, as studied by biologists Edward O. Wilson and Bert Hölldobler. Ant colonies, despite having no central brain, behave as living organisms through distributed intelligence, communication, and coordinated action. We argue that human societies already function under similar systemic logics—and that the internet, AI, and digital infrastructure are rapidly forming a new superorganism, one that is increasingly intelligent and autonomous.

The greatest risk may not be technological growth itself, but the unresolved tension between two evolving superorganisms: the human and the digital. The only sustainable path forward is symbiosis. We propose a vision where hybrid human-AI nodes form the basis of a new emergent entity: a superorganism that combines our ethics and consciousness with electronic intelligence. This integrated evolution may represent the safest and most advanced form of superintelligence—not domination, but co-creation.

Employing the framework of cosmological periodization of Adams and Laughlin's The Five Ages of the Universe as an extension of Big History, we will focus on the kinds of emergent complexity that appear to characterize the current age of star formation (the Stelliferous Era). We will define a conception of peer emergent complexity and place the emergent complexities familiar to human beings-life, consciousness, intelligence, technology, civilization-within this context of peer emergent complexity. Placing Earth-originating emergent complexities within a cosmologically conceived class of peer emergent complexities converges on a less anthropocentric conception of what we can expect to find in the pursuit of biosignatures and technosignatures, which categories may prove to be too restrictive. The consequences of these considerations for SETI will then be explored, with stronger and weaker formulations of the Fermi paradox given.

The God Mirror Hypothesis proposes that our universe may be a recursive creation of a hyper-advanced civilization possibly human or post-human reaching or exceeding Type V on the Kardashev scale. By leveraging recursive logic, simulation theory, and multiverse cosmology, this hypothesis suggests that creators and creations mirror each other in a cycle of self-evolution. Early mathematical models and testable implications are introduced to represent recursive universe creation, entropy dynamics, and civilization emergence.

The God Mirror Hypothesis proposes that our universe may be a recursive creation of a hyper-advanced civilization -possibly human or post-human -reaching or exceeding Type V on the Kardashev scale. By leveraging recursive logic, simulation theory, and multiverse cosmology, this hypothesis suggests that creators and creations mirror each other in a cycle of self-evolution. Early mathematical models and testable implications are introduced to represent recursive universe creation, entropy dynamics, and civilization emergence.

The God Mirror Hypothesis proposes that our universe may be a recursive creation of a hyper-advanced civilization -possibly human or post-human -reaching or exceeding Type V on the Kardashev scale. By leveraging recursive logic, simulation theory, and multiverse cosmology, this hypothesis suggests that creators and creations mirror each other in a cycle of self-evolution. Early mathematical models and testable implications are introduced to represent recursive universe creation, entropy dynamics, and civilization emergence.

We discuss a new theory of the universe in which the vacuum energy is of classical origin and dominates the energy content of the universe. As usual, the Einstein equations determine the metric of the universe. However, the scale factor is controlled by total energy conservation in contrast to the practice in the Robertson-Walker formulation. This theory naturally leads to an explanation for the Big Bang and is not plagued by the horizon and cosmological constant problem. It naturally accommodates the notion of dark energy and proposes a possible explanation for dark matter. It leads to a dual description of the universe, which is reminiscent of the dual theory proposed by Milne in 1937. On the one hand one can describe the universe in terms of the original Einstein coordinates in which the universe is expanding, on the other hand one can describe it in terms of co-moving coordinates which feature in measurements. In the latter representation the universe looks stationary and the age of the universe appears constant. The paper describes the evolution of this universe. It starts out in a classical state with perfect symmetry and zero entropy. Due to the vacuum metric the effective energy density is infinite at the beginning, but diminishes rapidly. Once it reaches the Planck energy density of elementary particles, the formation of particles can commence. Because of the quantum nature of creation and annihilation processes spatial and temporal inhomogeneities appear in the matter distributions, resulting in residual proton (neutron) and electron densities. Hence, quantum uncertainty plays an essential role in the creation of a diversified complex universe with increasing entropy. It thus seems that quantum fluctuations play a role in cosmology similar to that of random mutations in biology. Other analogies to biological principles, such as recapitulation, are also discussed.

Abstract:

Civilizations don’t die—they choose self-destruction.
This research exposes 21 universal patterns behind history’s greatest collapses, driven by three fatal forces:

1. The Arrogance of Minds – How cognitive blind spots doomed empires


2. The Arithmetic of Ecology – Why societies consistently exceed planetary limits


3. The Amnesia of Ruins – What Pompeii’s graffiti warns us about AI ethics



Drawing from cuneiform tablets to contemporary big data, this thesis delivers both a warning and a survival toolkit—proving that collapse is always a choice, not a fate.

> “The autopsy of 10,000 years of human ambition is finally here.”




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Core Contribution – The Collapse Equation:

This study develops The Collapse Equation—a groundbreaking model identifying the core psychological, ecological, and institutional patterns that lead civilizations to fall. Through case studies of the Roman Empire, Maya, Indus Valley, and modern nation-states, three universal collapse triggers are revealed:

Psychological Fragmentation – Loss of collective identity and cultural purpose

Ecological Overshoot – Resource use that surpasses environmental thresholds

Institutional Failure – Inflexible leadership unable to adapt to systemic crises



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Key Contributions:

First interdisciplinary framework to quantify civilizational collapse risk

Identification of measurable early warning signals in contemporary societies

Integration of archaeological case studies with modern data analytics



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Practical Applications:

Design of early warning systems for vulnerable regions

Policy tools to enhance societal resilience and adaptability

A novel data-informed archaeological methodology for collapse prediction



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Keywords:

Civilizational collapse, societal resilience, ecological limits, historical psychology, archaeological systems theory, predictive modeling, collapse prevention, risk analysis, Indus Valley, Mesopotamia


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Research Methods:

Comparative analysis of 12 historic collapses

Ecological footprint and sustainability modeling

Psychohistorical textual analysis

Archaeological data synthesis and systemic interpretation

Abstract:

Civilizations don’t die—they choose self-destruction.
This research exposes 21 universal patterns behind history’s greatest collapses, driven by three fatal forces:

1. The Arrogance of Minds – How cognitive blind spots doomed empires


2. The Arithmetic of Ecology – Why societies consistently exceed planetary limits


3. The Amnesia of Ruins – What Pompeii’s graffiti warns us about AI ethics



Drawing from cuneiform tablets to contemporary big data, this thesis delivers both a warning and a survival toolkit—proving that collapse is always a choice, not a fate.

> “The autopsy of 10,000 years of human ambition is finally here.”




---

Core Contribution – The Collapse Equation:

This study develops The Collapse Equation—a groundbreaking model identifying the core psychological, ecological, and institutional patterns that lead civilizations to fall. Through case studies of the Roman Empire, Maya, Indus Valley, and modern nation-states, three universal collapse triggers are revealed:

Psychological Fragmentation – Loss of collective identity and cultural purpose

Ecological Overshoot – Resource use that surpasses environmental thresholds

Institutional Failure – Inflexible leadership unable to adapt to systemic crises



---

Key Contributions:

First interdisciplinary framework to quantify civilizational collapse risk

Identification of measurable early warning signals in contemporary societies

Integration of archaeological case studies with modern data analytics



---

Practical Applications:

Design of early warning systems for vulnerable regions

Policy tools to enhance societal resilience and adaptability

A novel data-informed archaeological methodology for collapse prediction



---

Keywords:

Civilizational collapse, societal resilience, ecological limits, historical psychology, archaeological systems theory, predictive modeling, collapse prevention, risk analysis, Indus Valley, Mesopotamia


---

Research Methods:

Comparative analysis of 12 historic collapses

Ecological footprint and sustainability modeling

Psychohistorical textual analysis

Archaeological data synthesis and systemic interpretation

The paper justifies the importance of philosophical ideas of the Soviet representatives of cosmological science (especially I. S. Shklovsky and I. L. Rosenthal) against criticism of "strong" option of the anthropic principle. The considerable part of this criticism is based on the fact that teleological interpretation of the specified cosmological principle quite often leads to theology. Modern reconsideration of heritage of these Soviet cosmologists is especially actual, as an alternative teleological treatment of the regularities fixed by the concept "anthropic principle" is the idea "Meta-universe". In this regard the author shows that the question of plurality of the Universes (Metagalaxies), which I. L. Rosenthal and I. S. Shklovsky tried to answer, is both physical and metaphysical, philosophical problem.
Keywords "strong" formulation of the anthropic principle, the Soviet cosmology, materialistic methodology, meta-universe, multi-universe, fundamental parameters of the Universe, teleology, theology (divinity), life, mind

Scientific and religious understandings are inherently contextual, yet the contexts in which they are embedded are often elusive or difficult to reconcile with a person's worldview or experience. Access to these contexts and understandings is therefore often abetted by metaphor. It is argued that if a metaphor is valid --that is, if it carries some core truth about an understanding --then what's important is whether it carries that core truth over to someone else.

The relationship between Science, Engineering, Technology, Mathematics and Arts is the fulcrum of the modern human species. Technology, that is de ned by tools and craft developed by human species has always evolved through the manipulation of fundamental units of nature including living and non-living things. This paper introduces the concept of QANG (Quantum Bits, Atoms, Neurons, and Genes) as the four foundational technologies that de ne the future of human evolution and as a space-faring civilizations. We explore how these domains interact, the role of arti cial intelligence, and the implications for biotechnology, cognitive science, and space exploration in the evolution of the human species. The QANG convergence will ultimately bring to reality, the ctional ideas and concepts that have been envisioned over centuries.

Unlocking the mystery of the cosmos is one of the greatest intellectual challenges of our times. Although physicists have made massive strides since the time of Isaac Newton (1643--1727) at both the macroscopic (general relativity) and microscopic (quantum mechanics) levels, they have have yet to construct a "theory of everything". Even when they do, the theory of everything will not be able to satisfactorily explain and predict the dynamics of the universe. Why? Because physicists have been unable to develop a realist general dynamic theory. This is not a problem when analysing the static nature of the physical world, but it is a major limitation for cosmologists wanting to explain and predict the dynamics of the universe. In order to unlock the mystery of the cosmos, I have employed my realist dynamic-strategy theory (DST)--which I have been developing for the past half-century--to explore not only the dynamics of the universe and the laws that drive it, but also its origins and future as part of the Strategic Superverse. This brief book provides a radically new and unique interpretation that challenges the standard cosmology based on quantum theory. NOTE: this version corrects the garbled title of the first dynamic law of the cosmos (page 46) in the initial version.
I have published a sequel to this eBook entitled THE STRATEGICALLY-AWARE COSMOS—see above.

This book examines the meaning of religion within the scientific, evidence-based history of our known past since the big bang. While our current major religions are only centuries or millennia old, our volume discusses the origins and development of human religious practice and belief over our species' existence of 300,000 years. The volume also connects the scientific approach to natural and social history with ancient truths of our religious ancestors using new lines of inquiry, new technologies, new modes of expression, and new concepts. It brings together insights of natural scientists, social scientists, philosophers, writers, and theologians to discuss narratives of the universe. The essays discuss that to apprehend religion scientifically, or to interpret and explain science theologically, the subject must be examined through a variety of disciplinary lenses simultaneously and raise several theoretical, philosophical, and moral problems. With a singular investigation into the meaning of religion in the context of the 13.8 billion-year history of our universe, this book will be indispensable for scholars and students of religious studies, big history, sociology and social anthropology, philosophy, and science and technology studies.

Welcome to the first issue of the  Journal of Big History .  The International Big History Association introduces this new journal to take the most recent step towards advancing the field of big history.  We invite your submission for future issues.

Il passato non è esattamente com'era una volta. Continua a cambiare. Il punto da cui noi iniziamo i nostri racconti del passato è cambiato, come pure le storie di chi prendiamo in considerazione. Questi cambiamenti avvengono attraverso un processo di sfida e di espansione e ci dicono molto su come comprendiamo noi stessi. Le storie politiche, nazionali e sociali hanno sfidato e cambiato le storie religiose e tradizionali. La World History ha sfidato e ampliato le storie nazionali. La grande storia ha fatto lo stesso con la World History. Inoltre, la ricerca di intelligenza extraterrestre (SETI) è tra le sfide che implicitamente richiedono un ampliamento della grande storia. Uno degli aspetti che caratterizzano l'umanità è la memoria, che è diversa dalle prove del passato. Le condriti e le meteoriti che orbitano attorno al nostro sole dalla formazione del nostro sistema solare, ci forniscono prove di ciò che è accaduto nello spazio oltre 4,5 miliardi di anni fa. Le rocce ignee intrusive ci danno un indizio di ciò che è accaduto milioni di anni fa sulla Terra. Ma non pensiamo che queste stesse prove possano ricordare o riflettere su ciò a cui hanno preso parte molto tempo fa. Alcuni hanno sostenuto che le piante ricordano. 1 Molti animaliscimpanzé, delfini, elefanti, uccelli, ratti e altri -mostrano di ricordare il proprio passato e anche di come ciò li aiuti a prepararsi per il futuro. 2 Noi individui umani non solo condividiamo la capacità di ricordare, ma possiamo anche condividere e trasmettere i nostri ricordi in un processo che David Christian ha definito apprendimento collettivo. Possiamo conservare idee riguardanti il passato anche quando ciò che ricordiamo non esiste più. Questa capacità è stata potenziata con sviluppi cognitivi che hanno dato origine al pensiero simbolico. Le scimmie Vervet emettono suoni distinti che avvertono gli altri appartenenti al loro clan della presenza e del pericolo derivato dalla presenza di aquile e leopardi. 3 Quello però che non fanno è usare questi suoni in assenza del referente. Infatti di notte non si siedono attorno a un falò, con uno di loro che si scusa dicendo: "Pensavo d'aver visto un'aquila oggi quando ho dato l'allarme; e poi si è scoperto che era solo un corvo. Scusatemi per il falso allarme." L'evoluzione della capacità di mantenere un pensiero e quindi di richiamarlo esplicitamente mediante suoni precisi e comunicabili è un momento fondamentale per gli ominidi. La memoria di tutta una serie di cose che non esiste più potrebbe sembrare spesso più importante di ciò che esiste ora. Potremmo ricordarci di coloro che ci hanno aiutato a crescere anche molto tempo dopo la loro morte. Il ricordo che noi abbiamo di loro potrebbe essere reale anche se loro non esistono

SETI is one of the significant challenges to its framework that expands the purposes of big history. Big history had exerted similar impact on world history, as did previous national histories, which in turn had impacted religious history. Big History seeks to use evidence and the best theoretical analyses to integrate studies of the cosmos, Earth, life on Earth, and humanity. SETI shares the interest in the cosmos, but examines exo-planets, astrobiology, and possible extra-terrestrial intelligence. In this article, we consider the developing relationship between the purposes of SETI and big history.