Key research themes
1. How can dependency structures among risks improve actuarial risk aggregation and modeling?
This theme investigates the incorporation of dependence between multiple risks, moving beyond the classical assumption of independence. Understanding and modeling dependencies, such as comonotonicity or strong positive dependence, is crucial because it affects the aggregate risk distribution and the adequacy of capital reserves. Accurately capturing dependencies can lead to improved pricing, reserving, and risk management in insurance and finance.
2. In what ways can big data and advanced modeling techniques enhance actuarial predictions in insurance?
This research theme examines how big data and computational advancements, especially machine learning and deep learning, contribute to refining actuarial models for risk assessment, pricing, and reserves estimation. Incorporating broader and more complex data sources enables actuaries to capture subtler patterns, leading to more accurate individual-level predictions, improved claims management, and adaptation to emerging risks.
3. How can actuarial methods better integrate individual-level risk assessments and fairness considerations in pricing?
This theme explores challenges in translating group-level statistical risk estimates to individual clients and addressing fairness in actuarial pricing schemes. It includes methodological critique of wide confidence intervals in individual risk estimates, the notion of actuarial fairness, and proposals for utility-based pricing that can yield equitable treatment among heterogeneous policyholders.