Ecological Effects of Climate Fluctuations

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2010

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate OPEN ACCESS J.; Sauerimuttu, T.; Tong, S.

Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2007

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1 o C over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.

Global Change Biology, 2007

Well-documented changes in species abundances and distributions coinciding with global warming have been increasing during recent years. A trend of raising sea-surface temperature has also been observed along the Portuguese coast which could affect intertidal species' ranges. The present study aimed at evaluating the direction and intensity of distribution changes of macroalgae in the area. The last 50-year trend of coastal air and sea temperature was reassessed, providing an accurate estimate of the warming process. Information on species' range shifts was obtained by comparing data from recent resurveys with historical records of algal distributions collected during the 1950s and 1960s. Although a prevalence of northward migrations was anticipated, this work showed a marked difference in the average direction of changes between cold- and warm-water species. Cold-water species, when considered together, showed no particular shifting trend, because the number of species that shifted north or south was the same. Contrarily, all shifting warm-water species expanded their range northwards. Therefore, generalizations about poleward range shifts due to increasing temperature should be made with caution.

Journal of Biogeography, 2006

Aim Recent colonization of northern Portuguese shores by Patella rustica Linnaeus, 1758, led to the bridging of a historical gap in the distribution known since the 1900s. Long-term oceanographic data collected over the last half-century were examined in order to detect possible mechanisms for the observed change in its distribution.Location This study was carried out along the entire Portuguese coastline, from 41°50′ to 37°06′ N. Time-series of hydrographical variables (sea surface temperature and salinity) were derived for the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula.Methods Abundance and size-frequency distributions of the newly observed limpet populations were compared with those from well-established populations in southern Portugal. Anomalies were computed for sea surface temperature (1950–2000) and sea surface salinity (1958–2001) data, covering the whole Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. An upwelling index (1967–2005) was derived for a single location within the distributional gap of P. rustica. Split moving window analysis was performed to detect significant discontinuities in hydrographical data sets.Results Patella rustica has gradually been expanding in northern Iberia, and in the late 1990s the historical gap in distribution in northern Portugal was bridged. Size-frequency distribution differed between historical and recent populations, the latter lacking small-sized individuals. At the same time, several anomalous oceanographic events occurred off the Portuguese coast and were probably related to this expansion.Main conclusions Although sea surface temperature might be a major determinant of the reproductive success of P. rustica and hence its dispersal potential, it is more likely that a coincidence of several factors occurring in the late 1990s provided exceptional conditions that allowed the geographical expansion of this species.

Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 2011

Global Change Biology, 2007

Most European migratory birds wintering in sub-Saharan Africa have anticipated arrival to the breeding areas over the past decades. This phenological change may be ultimately caused by warming of the Northern Hemisphere via evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity in migration behavior. First arrival dates are negatively predicted by temperatures upon arrival to the breeding grounds. This seems puzzling, because migrants should be unable to predict weather conditions at long range. Migrants can enjoy diverse fitness benefits from early arriving. However, if weather conditions at destination cannot be predicted, early arrival can also entail severe costs. If meteorological conditions in Europe during breeding covary with those in sub-Saharan Africa during late winter, long-distance migrants may have a clue to predict meteorological conditions in their breeding areas while they are still in Africa and adjust their migration schedule consequently, an idea that has never been tested. We analyzed the correlation between March–April temperature anomalies (Tan) in Europe and February Tan in the Sahel and sub-Sahel, where long-distance migrants winter or stop-over. Tan in Africa negatively predicted Tan in Europe, the association being particularly strong (unsigned effect size, zr>0.35) for eastern Sahel and northern and eastern Europe, where the risks of early arrival may be larger. However, the strength of the correlations between Tan in the two continents has declined during the last 25 years; thus, possibly, partly compromising adaptive mechanisms of adjustment of migration. The existence of such climatic connectivity leads to several predictions, including that positive Tan in Africa should delay arrival. Consistent with this prediction, we found that first arrival dates of seven long-distance migratory species positively covaried with February Tan in Africa. Thus, while wintering, migrants might be able to predict meteorological conditions at the beginning of the breeding season, and phenotypically adjust migration schedules to optimally tune arrival date.

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2012

The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer–autumn–winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952–1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952–1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.

Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 2006

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season. El Niño Southern Oscillation | North Atlantic Oscillation | Normalized Difference Vegetation Index | food production | nonlinear statistical modelling

Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2007

Populations of many species are dramatically declining worldwide, but the causal mechanism remains debated among different human-related threats. Coping with this uncertainty is critical to several issues about the conservation and future of biodiversity, but remains challenging due to difficulties associated with the experimental manipulation and /or isolation of the effects of such threats under field conditions. Using controlled microcosm populations, we quantified the individual and combined effects of environmental warming, overexploitation and habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Individually, each of these threats produced similar and significant population declines, which were accelerated to different degrees depending upon particular interactions. The interaction between habitat fragmentation and harvesting generated an additive decline in population size. However, both of these threats reduced population resistance causing synergistic declines in populations also facing environmental warming. Declines in population size were up to 50 times faster when all threats acted together. These results indicate that species may be facing risks of extinction higher than those anticipated from single threat analyses and suggest that all threats should be mitigated simultaneously, if current biodiversity declines are to be reversed.

Fish and Fisheries, 2004

Mammal Review, 2012

1. We reviewed worldwide spatial patterns in the food habits of the brown bear Ursus arctos in relation to geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude) and environmental (temperature, snow cover depth and duration, precipitation, primary productivity) variables. 2. We collected data from 28 studies on brown bear diet based on faecal analysis, covering the entire geographical range of this widely distributed large carnivore. We analysed separately four data sets based on different methods of diet assessment. 3. Temperature and snow conditions were the most important factors determining the composition of brown bear diet. Populations in locations with deeper snow cover, lower temperatures and lower productivity consumed significantly more vertebrates, fewer invertebrates and less mast. Trophic diversity was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and productivity but negatively correlated with the duration of snow cover and snow depth. Brown bear populations from temperate forest biomes had the most diverse diet. In general, environmental factors were more explicative of diet than geographical variables. 4. Dietary spatial patterns were best revealed by the relative biomass and energy content methods of diet analysis, whereas the frequency of occurrence and relative biomass methods were most appropriate for investigating variation in trophic diversity. 5. Spatial variation in brown bear diet is the result of environmental conditions, especially climatic factors, which affect the nutritional and energetic requirements of brown bears as well as the local availability of food. The trade-off between food availability on the one hand, and nutritional and energetic requirements on the other hand, determines brown bear foraging decisions. In hibernating species such as the brown bear, winter severity seems to play a role in determining foraging strategies. Large-scale reviews of food habits should be based on several measures of diet composition, with special attention to those methods reflecting the energetic value of food.

Global Change Biology, 2012

Aedes aegypti is one of the most common urban tropical mosquito species and an important vector of dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses. It is also an organism with a complex life history where larval stages are aquatic and adults are terrestrial. This ontogenetic niche shift could shape the density-dependent regulation of this and other mosquito species, because events that occur during the larval stages impact adult densities. Herein, we present results from simple density-dependent mathematical models fitted using maximum likelihood methods to weekly time series data from Puerto Rico and Thailand. Density-dependent regulation was strong in both populations. Analysis of climatic forcing indicated that populations were more sensitive to climatic variables with low kurtosis, i.e., climatic factors highly variable around the median, rainfall in Puerto Rico, and temperature in Thailand. Changes in environmental variability appear to drive sharp changes in the abundance of mosquitoes. The identification of density-independent (i.e., exogenous) variables forcing sharp changes in disease vector populations using the exogenous factors statistical properties, such as kurtosis, could be useful to assess the impacts of changing climate patterns on the transmission of vector-borne diseases.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009

Summer conditions in the Mediterranean Sea are characterized by high temperatures and low food availability. This leads to ''summer dormancy'' in many benthic suspension feeders due to energetic constraints. Analysis of the most recent 33-year temperature time series demonstrated enhanced stratification due to global warming, which produced a Ϸ40% lengthening of summer conditions. Many biological processes are expected to be affected by this trend, culminating in such events as mass mortality of invertebrates. Climatic anomalies concomitant with the occurrence of these events represent prolonged exposure to warmer summer conditions coupled with reduced food resources. Simulation of the effects of these conditions on a model organism demonstrated a biomass loss of >35%. Losses of this magnitude result in mortality similar to that noted in field observations during mass mortality events. These results indicate that temperature anomalies are the underlying cause of the events, with energetic constraints serving as the main triggering mechanism.

Oikos, 2014

Despite the amount of research on the consequences of global warming on ecological systems, most studies examine the impact of increases in average temperature. However, there are few studies concerning the role of thermal variability on ecological processes. Based on insect thermal and population ecology, we propose a theoretical framework for organizing the study of the role that thermal mean and variability plays in individual performance, and how it may affect population dynamics. Starting with three predictions of global warming scenarios, we develop null models of the expected changes in individual physiological performance and population dynamics. Ecological consequences in each scenario may range from simple changes in performance to drastic changes in population fluctuations and geographic ranges. In particular, our null models show that potential changes in the intrinsic population growth rate (R m ) will depend on the interaction of mean temperature and thermal variability, and that the net effect of the interaction could be synergistic or antagonistic. To evaluate these null models, we fit performance curves to compiled data from the literature on measurements of R m at several constant and fluctuating temperatures. The fitted models showed that several of the qualitative characteristics predicted by the null model may be found in the fitted curves. We expect that this framework will be useful as a guide to study the influence of thermal changes on the dynamics of natural populations.

PLoS ONE, 2012

Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niñ o increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ,50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes. Citation: Santidrián Tomillo P, Saba VS, Blanco GS, Stock CA, Paladino FV, et al. (2012) Climate Driven Egg and Hatchling Mortality Threatens Survival of Eastern Pacific Leatherback Turtles. PLoS ONE 7(5): e37602.

Environmental Biology of Fishes, 2012

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmon are exploring their options. Adult Pacific salmon, including sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) have been captured throughout the Arctic. Pink and chum salmon are the most common species found in the Arctic today. These species are less dependent on freshwater habitats as juveniles and grow quickly in marine habitats. Putative spawning populations are rare in the North American Arctic and limited to pink salmon in drainages north of Point Hope, Alaska, chum salmon spawning rivers draining to the northwestern Beaufort Sea, and small populations of chum and pink salmon in Canada's Mackenzie River. Pacific salmon have colonized several large river basins draining to the Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas in the Russian Arctic. These populations probably developed from hatchery supplementation efforts in the 1960's. Hundreds of populations of Arctic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are found in Russia, Norway and Finland. Atlantic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russian. A small native population of Atlantic salmon is found in Canada's Ungava Bay. The northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon migration barrier for other North American stocks. Compatibility between life history requirements and ecological conditions are prerequisite for salmon colonizing Arctic habitats. Broad-scale predictive models of climate change in the Arctic give little information about feedback processes contributing to local conditions, especially in freshwater systems. This paper reviews the recent history of salmon in the Arctic and explores various patterns of climate change that may influence range expansions and future sustainability of salmon in Arctic habitats. A summary of the research needs that will allow informed expectation of further Arctic colonization by salmon is given.

Diversity <html_ent glyph="@amp;" ascii="&amp;"/> Distributions, 2005

Bonelli's eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli's eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model's predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables -slope, July temperature and precipitation -comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the final model. The reported presences in favourable and unfavourable areas suggest a source-sink dynamics in Bonelli's eagle populations. The fragmented spatial structure of the favourable areas suggests the existence of a superimposed metapopulation dynamics. Previous LIFE (The Financial Instrument of the European Union for the Environment and Nature) projects for the conservation of this species have focused mainly on the northern limit of its range, where the sharpest population decline has been recorded. In these areas, favourability is low and Bonelli's eagle populations are probably maintained by the immigration of juveniles produced in more favourable zones. However, southern populations, although stable, show signs of reduction in productivity, which could menace the population sizes in the whole study area. We suggest that conservation efforts should focus also on known favourable areas, which might favour population persistence in unfavourable areas through dispersal.

Oikos, 2007

G. Tavecchia (g.tavecchia@uib.es), R. Pradel, M. Genovart and D. Oro, IMEDEA (UIB-CSIC), 21 M. Marques, ES-07190 Esporles, Spain.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2012

A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km 2 of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA.

2004

Weather can have important consequences for the structure and function of ecological communities by substantially altering the nature and strength of species interactions. We examined the role of intra-and interannual weather variability on species interactions in a seasonal old-field community consisting of spider predators, grasshopper herbivores, and grass and herb plants. We experimentally varied the number of trophic levels for 2 consecutive years and tested for inter-annual variation in trophic abundances. Grasshopper emergence varied between years to the extent that the second growing season was 20% shorter than the first one. However, the damage grasshoppers inflicted on plants was greater in the second, shorter growing season. This inter-annual variation in plant abundance could be explained using the foragingpredation risk trade-off displayed by grasshoppers combined with their survival trajectory. Decreased grasshopper survival not only reduced the damage inflicted on plants, it weakened the strength of indirect effects of spiders on grass and herb plants. The most influential abiotic factor affecting grasshopper survival was precipitation. We found a negative association between grasshopper survival and the total yearly precipitation. A finer scale analysis, however, showed that different precipitation modalities, namely, number of rainy days and average precipitation per day, had opposing effects on grasshopper survival, which were inconsistent between years. Furthermore, our results suggest that small changes in these factors should result in changes of up to several orders of magnitude in the mortality rate of grasshoppers. We thus conclude that in this system the foraging-predation risk trade-off displayed by grasshoppers combined with their survival trajectory and relevant weather variability should be incorporated in analytical theory, whose goal is to predict community dynamics.

Biological Reviews, 2011

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well‐studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate‐change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between‐researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Hydrological, Socioeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Mediterranean Region, 2011

Large-scale climate indices have received much attention in recent years in ecology-climate research due to the advantages they have over typically used local weather variables, such as temperature or rainfall. In the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a major forcing of climate patterns, especially precipitation. More than 60 studies to date have demonstrated the effects of the NAO on both terrestrial and aquatic Mediterranean ecosystems. In terrestrial ecosystems, the NAO affects the phenology and growth of plants and crop yields. It also affects the condition and diet of mammals and disease-related mortality in amphibians. The effects of the NAO are probably better known in marine ecosystems, where the impact on the hydrodynamics of the water column and currents is felt in the dynamics of populations from plankton to fishes in both pelagic and benthonic environments. Additionally, birds are an especially well studied taxon when it comes to effects of the NAO. The NAO has been shown to affect the population dynamics of water birds by impacting the availability and extent of their habitat and by influencing dispersal decisions of individuals. The NAO plays an essential role in the migration of birds throughout the Mediterranean basin, and it is probably a reason for the observed advance of arrival dates during the spring in Europe. In spite of the notable number of studies carried out to date, we are far from knowing accurately the ecological impacts of the NAO on Mediterranean ecosystems. More efforts are needed to understand regional differences in the NAO effects within the Mediterranean basin and how they compare with more northern latitudes of Europe.

Ecosphere, 2014

Experimental evidence for a mismatch between insect emergence and waterfowl hatching under increased spring temperatures. Ecosphere 5(9):120. http://dx.

Ecology, 2013

Oceanic island ecosystems are particularly sensitive to El Nin˜o effects due to their dependence on energy and nutrient inputs from marine systems. Seabirds play a key role in transporting resources of marine origin to insular ecosystems. We report tree-growth patterns showing how the effects of El Nin˜o rainy events on tree species in a southern Pacific island depend on the presence of local seabird colonies. We performed manipulative experiments in order to assess the mechanisms underlying these patterns. Tree ring data showed that, in normal years, the growth of all tree species (Aextoxicon punctatum, Cryptocarya alba, and Pinus radiata) was significantly lower in seabird sites compared to adjacent patches without seabirds (control sites). In contrast, in El Nin˜o years, trees formerly hosting seabird colonies grew more than those in control sites. Experiments showed that (1) pine plants on soil from seabird sites grew more than those on soil from control sites, (2) pine individuals with seabird feces on their leaves grew less than those sprayed with an aqueous solution, and (3) soil moisture had little effect on plant growth. The stress produced by massive cormorant nesting on trees, which impairs tree growth and physiological performance, is relieved during El Nin˜o events because of seabird migration due to decreased prey availability and pouring rains that flood nests. Soils enriched by the seabird guano, together with the increased water availability associated with El Nin˜o, foster the growth of trees from seabird sites. We suggest that El Nin˜o may be a key determinant of tree performance in forest communities from island and coastal ecosystems of the Pacific Ocean.

Climatic Change, 2012

Long-term data are critically important to science, management, and policy formation. Here we describe a number of data collections from arctic Canada that monitor vertebrate population trends of freshwater and marine fish, marine birds, marine and Climatic Change (2012) 115:235-258 terrestrial mammals. These time series data cover the last ca. 30 years and capture a period from the onset of global changes affecting the Arctic up to recent years with a rapid increase in temperature. While many of these data collections were initiated through a variety of government and university programs, they also include a surge in polar research launched with the recent International Polar Year (2007Year ( -2008. We estimated the long-term vertebrate index from our data that summarizes various taxa abundance trends within a global context and observed a continuous decline of about 30 % in population abundance since the 1990s. Though most data collections are biased towards few taxa, we conduct time-series analyses to show that the potential value of long-term data emerges as individual monitoring sites can be spread across space and time scales. Despite covering a handful of populations, the different time series data covered a large spectrum of dynamics, cyclic to non-cyclic, including coherence with the North Atlantic Oscillation, lag effects, and density dependence. We describe a synthesis framework to integrate ecological time-series research and thereby derive additional benefits to management, science, and policy. Future requirements include: (1) continuation of current observation systems;

PLoS ONE, 2011

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions-such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Global Change Biology, 2006

In some hole nesting passerine species, long-term monitoring data are available for several geographically independent populations. Climate forcing can then be documented and predictions made on the scale of distribution ranges. Several demographic studies of Paridae report dramatic impacts of wintertime climatic factors. However, these studies were undertaken in populations located in the northern parts of the species' ranges. Studies on the survival of Paridae in their southern ranges are necessary in order to assess potential latitudinal variation in climate forcing on survival. Based on monitoring of individual adult blue tits (Parus caeruleus), the effects of climatic factors on annual survival were assessed in three distinct Mediterranean populations. In these regions, climatic conditions in early summer might be expected to have a strong impact because they can be extremely hot and dry and because at this time of year Paridae are subjected to intrinsic constraints that stem from energetically costly postbreeding moult, recovery from reproductive costs, and from population densities inflated by the new cohort of fledglings. The impact of climatic conditions in early summer was, thus, addressed in addition to that prevailing in winter. In order to consider a large number of local climatic variables while limiting statistical power loss, integrative indices of local climate were built using multivariate techniques. In addition, the NAO and three large-scale factors that are closely linked with atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the intertropical zone were considered as potentially influential factors in winter and early summer. Relationships between blue tit survival and indices of local temperature and precipitation in winter and in early summer were detected. Adult survival also correlated with a large-scale tropical index in early summer: rainfall in the Sahel. This is one of the first quantitative indications that fluctuations in summer climatic conditions explain a significant part of the temporal variation in adult survival in unconnected populations of a sedentary European vertebrate. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that summertime local climates in Western Europe are closely linked with atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the intertropical zone.

Ecosphere, 2011

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

PLoS ONE, 2013

Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural lowfrequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (,60 years) is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts) over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries. Citation: Edwards M, Beaugrand G, Helaouët P, Alheit J, Coombs S (2013) Marine Ecosystem Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. PLoS ONE 8(2): e57212.

Journal of comparative physiology. B, Biochemical, systemic, and environmental physiology, 2014

Hibernation and daily torpor (heterothermy) have long been assumed to be adaptive responses to seasonal energy shortage. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that food shortage alone can trigger the use of heterothermy. However, their potential to predict heterothermic responses in the wild is limited, and few field studies demonstrate the dependence of heterothermy on food availability under natural conditions. Thus, the view of heterothermy as an energy saving strategy to compensate for food shortage largely remains an untested hypothesis. In this paper, we review published evidence on the proximate role of food availability in heterothermy regulation by endotherms, and emphasize alternative hypotheses that remain to be tested. Most studies have relied on correlative evidence. Manipulations of food availability, that demonstrate the proximate role of food availability, have been conducted in only five free-ranging heterotherms. Several other metabolic constraints covary with food ...

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008

The patterns of variations in fisheries time series are known to result from a complex combination of species and fisheries dynamics all coupled with environmental forcing (including climate, trophic interactions, etc.). Disentangling the relative effects of these factors has been a major goal of fisheries science for both conceptual and management reasons. By examining the variability of 169 tuna and billfish time series of catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) throughout the Atlantic as well as their linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that the importance of these factors differed according to the spatial scale. At the scale of the entire Atlantic the patterns of variations are primarily spatially structured, whereas at a more regional scale the patterns of variations were primarily related to the fishing gear. Furthermore, the NAO appeared to also structure the patterns of variations of tuna time series, especially over the North Atlantic. We conclude that the patterns of variations in fisheries time series of tuna and billfish only poorly reflect the underlying dynamics of these fish populations; they appear to be shaped by several successive embedded processes, each interacting with each other. Our results emphasize the necessity for scientific data when investigating the population dynamics of large pelagic fishes, because CPUE fluctuations are not directly attributable to change in species' abundance. the wavelet libraries developed by B. Cazelles and M. Chavez.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2013

1. Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. 2. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. 3. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. 4. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal.

Journal of Avian Biology, 2006

Rainio, K., Laaksonen, T., Ahola, M., Vähätalo. A.V. and Lehikoinen, E. 2006. Climatic responses in spring migration of boreal and arctic birds in relation to wintering area and taxonomy. Á J. Avian Biol. 37: 507 Á515.

Journal of Avian Biology, 2004

E. 2004. Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Á/ J. Avian Biol. 35: 210 Á/216.

Oecologia, 2005

The two forest-defoliating geometrid moth species Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata are known to exhibit different altitudinal distribution patterns in northern birch forests. One possible explanation for this is that altitudinal climatic variation differentially affects the performance of two species through mismatching larval and host plant phenology. We explored this hypothesis by investigating the relationship between larval phenology and leaf phenology of Betula pubescens, which is the main host plant of both moth species, along ten replicate altitudinal transects during two springs with contrasting climate in northern Norway. There was a distinct monotonous cline in host plant phenology with increasing altitude in both years of the study, but the development of the leaves were generally 14 days later in the first of the 2 years due to cold spring weather. We found that larval development of both species closely tracked host plant leaf phenology independent of altitude and year. However, at the time of sampling, E. autumnata was approximately one instar ahead of O. brumata at all altitudes, probably reflecting that E. autumnata has faster early instar growth than O. brumata. The abundance of O. brumata was lowest at the altitudinal forest-line, while E. autumnata was lowest near sea level. Our results do not indicate that the altitudinal distribution patterns of the two moth species is due to any phenological mismatch between larval and host plant phenology. We suggest rather that natural enemies at low altitudes limit larval survival and thus abundance of E. autumnata, while an early onset of winter at the forest limit reduces survival of late eclosing adults of O. brumata.

Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2005

Ecosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. Because interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. Here, we

American Naturalist, 2004

Using North American porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum) feeding scars on trees as an index of past porcupine abundance, we have found that porcupine populations have fluctuated regularly over the past 130 years in the Bas St. Laurent region of eastern Quebec, with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years. Coherency and phase analyses showed that this porcupine population cycle has closely followed the 11-and 22-year solar activity cycles. Fluctuations in local precipitation and temperature were also cyclic and closely related to both the solar cycle and the porcupine cycle. Our results suggest that the solar cycle indirectly sets the rhythm of population fluctuations of the most abundant vertebrate herbivore in the ecosystem we studied. We hypothesize that the solar cycle has sufficiently important effects on the climate along the southern shore of the St. Lawrence estuary to locally influence terrestrial ecosystem functioning. This constitutes strong evidence for the possibility of a causal link between solar variability and terrestrial ecology at the decadal timescale and local spatial scale, which confirms results obtained at greater temporal and spatial scales.

PLoS ONE, 2014

Gradients of environmental stress may affect biotic interactions in unpredictable ways responding to climate variation, depending on the abiotic stress tolerance of interacting partners. Here, we study the effect of local climate on the intensity of feather mites in six mountain passerines along a 1400 m elevational gradient characterized by shifting temperature and rainfall. Although obligatory symbionts of warm-blooded organisms are assumed to live in mild and homeothermic environments, those inhabiting external, non-blood-irrigated body portions of the host organism, such as feather mites, are expected to endure exposure to the direct influence of a fluctuating climate. As expected, feather mite intensity declined with elevation in all bird species, a pattern that was also found in cold-adapted passerines that have typical alpine habits. The elevation cline was mainly explained by a positive effect of the average temperature upon mite intensity in five of the six species studied. Precipitation explained less variance in mite intensity than average temperature, and showed a negative correlation in half of the studied species. We found no climate-driven migration of mites along the wings of birds, no replacement of mite species along elevation gradients and no association with available food resources for mites (estimated by the size of the uropygial gland). This study suggests that ectosymbionts of warm-blooded animals may be highly sensitive to climatic variation and become less abundant under stressful environmental conditions, providing empirical evidence of the decline of specialized biotic interactions among animal species at high elevations.

Ecological Applications, 2010

1 Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing 2 exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance 3 since most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected 4 to increase through the 21 st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts 5 on marine fisheries. To quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast 6 of the United States, we develop a coupled climate-population model for Atlantic croaker 7 (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment 8 is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine 9 habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from two global climate models simulating 10 three standard climate scenarios. The coupled climate-population model demonstrates 11 that both exploitation and climate change will significantly affect abundance and 12 distribution of Atlantic croaker in the future. At current levels of fishing, the average 13 (2010-2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60-100%.

Ecological Applications, 2005

This study investigates the influence of climatic variability on subalpine forest fire occurrence in western Colorado during the AD 1600-2003 period. Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions among these oscillations. Fires occurred during short-term periods of significant drought and extreme cool (negative) phases of ENSO and PDO and during positive departures from mean AMO index. At longer time scales, fires exhibited 20-year periods of synchrony with the cool phase of the PDO, and 80year periods of synchrony with extreme warm (positive) phases of the AMO. Years of combined positive AMO and negative ENSO and PDO phases represent ''triple whammies'' that significantly increased the occurrence of drought-induced fires. Fires were synchronous with this phase combination over 0-30 year periods and distinctly asynchronous with the opposite phase combination. Overall, because fires are synchronous at supra-annual to multidecadal time scales with warm AMO events, particularly when combined with cool ENSO and PDO phases, this suggests that we may be entering a qualitatively different fire regime in the next few decades due to the recent shift in 1998 to a likely long-term warm AMO phase. Although uncertainty remains regarding the effects of CO 2 -induced warming at regional scales, given the multidecadal persistence of the AMO there is mounting evidence that the recent shift to the positive phase of the AMO will promote higher fire frequencies in the region.

PLOS ONE, 2015

Spatial variation in resources is a fundamental driver of habitat quality but the realized value of resources at any point in space may depend on the effects of conspecifics and stochastic factors, such as weather, which vary through time. We evaluated the relative and combined effects of habitat resources, weather, and conspecifics on habitat quality for ferruginous pygmy-owls (Glaucidium brasilianum) in the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico by monitoring reproductive output and conspecific abundance over 10 years in and around 107 territory patches. Variation in reproductive output was much greater across space than time, and although habitat resources explained a much greater proportion of that variation (0.70) than weather (0.17) or conspecifics (0.13), evidence for interactions among each of these components of the environment was strong. Relative to habitat that was persistently low in quality, high-quality habitat buffered the negative effects of conspecifics and amplified the benefits of favorable weather, but did not buffer the disadvantages of harsh weather. Moreover, the positive effects of favorable weather at low conspecific densities were offset by intraspecific competition at high densities. Although realized habitat quality declined with increasing conspecific density suggesting interference mechanisms associated with an Ideal Free Distribution, broad spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality persisted. Factors linked to food resources had positive effects on reproductive output but only where nest cavities were sufficiently abundant to mitigate the negative effects of heterospecific enemies. Annual precipitation and brooding-season temperature had strong multiplicative effects on reproductive output, which declined at increasing rates as drought and temperature increased, reflecting conditions predicted to become more frequent with climate change. Because the collective environment influences habitat quality in complex ways, integrated approaches that consider habitat resources, stochastic factors, and conspecifics are necessary to accurately assess habitat quality. Foundation. Additionally, the authors acknowledge different places even within similar environments can drive differences in individual performance (e.g. fitness realized by an individual) due to variation in resources they provide. Regardless of the specific resources that comprise habitat, their functional roles in providing food and reducing vulnerability to physiological stress and heterospecific enemies are fundamental . Although efforts to identify factors that affect habitat quality are common, until recently, most have focused on indirect measures such as body condition, settlement timing, or density, rather than on direct estimates of vital rates . In systems where vital rates have been monitored over time, spatial variation in vegetation, landscape structure, and abiotic factors have been found to have large and consistent effects on performance that persist longer than the generation time of the focal species . Thus, in some systems, good places tend to remain good for long periods.

Ecology, 2010

In marine ecosystems climatic fluctuation and other physical variables greatly influence population dynamics, but differential effects of physical variables on the demographic parameters of the two sexes and different age classes are largely unexplored. We analyzed the effects of climate on the survival and recruitment of both sexes and several age classes of a long-lived tropical seabird, the Blue-footed Booby (Sula nebouxii ), using longterm observations on marked individuals. Results demonstrated a complex interaction between yearly fluctuations in climate (both local and global indexes, during both winter and breeding season) and the sex and age of individuals. Youngest birds' survival and recruitment were commonly affected by local climate, whereas oldest birds' parameters tended to be constant and less influenced by environmental variables. These results confirm the theoretical prediction that sex-and age-related variation in life-history demographic traits is greater under poor environmental conditions, and they highlight the importance of including variability in fitness components in demographic and evolutionary models. Males and females showed similar variation in survival but different recruitment patterns, in relation to both age and the spatial scale of climatic influence (local or global). Results indicate different lifehistory tactics for each sex and different ages, with birds likely trying to maximize their fitness by responding to the environmental contingencies of each year.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2011

1. There is increasing interest in the impacts of El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on reproduction of apical predators such as seabirds and marine mammals. Long-term studies documenting ENSO effects on reproduction of seabirds in the warm tropics are scarce, and differential sensitivity of breeding parameters to ENSO has rarely been explored. 2. Analysis of 18 years of breeding data from a colony of the blue-footed booby Sula nebouxii (Milne-Edwards) showed a delay in onset of breeding when the global Southern Oscillation Index was negative; each unit of the atmospheric pressure differential (hPa) across the Pacific Ocean meant a delay of 7 days. 3. ENSO conditions also produced declines in breeding participation, clutch size, brood size, hatching success and fledging success, especially when surface waters surrounding the colony were warmer during winter and spring. Each additional degree (°C) of water temperature produced a reduction of 0AE45 fledglings per nest. Different breeding parameters were sensitive to ENSO indices in different blocks of months. 4. Warming of local waters during the winter was associated with decline in ocean productivity in the current year and the following year, consistent with ENSO impacts on breeding parameters being mediated by effects on local productivity and prey availability. However, there was no evidence of lagged effects of ENSO on any breeding parameter. 5. Comparison of 5 years revealed that when local surface waters were warm, chicks grew more slowly, but no effects of ENSO on weight and size of eggs were evident in data of 9 and 7 years, respectively. 6. Our findings extend evidence of impacts of ENSO on seabird reproduction to the eastern tropical Pacific and indicate that several breeding parameters of blue-footed boobies (but not egg size) are affected in the short term by ENSO conditions, particularly by local anomalies in sea surface temperature associated with decline in ocean productivity.

Global Change Biology, 2008

Productivity of old-growth beech forests in the Mediterranean Basin was measured by average stem basal area increment (BAI) of dominant trees at two mountain sites in the Italian Apennines. Both forests could be ascribed to the old-growth stage, but they differed markedly with regard to elevation (1000 vs. 1725 m a.s.l.), soil parent material (volcanic vs. calcareous), mean tree age (less than 200 years vs. 300 years), and stand structure (secondary old-growth vs. primary old-growth forest). Drought at the two sites was quantified by the self-calibrated Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (Z-index), and by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for summer (June through August) and the growing season (May through September). Dendroclimatological analyses revealed a moisture limitation of beech BAI at interannual (water availability measured by Z-index) and decadal scales (water availability measured by PDSI). Both BAI and water availability increased from 1950 to 1970, and decreased afterwards. Trees were grouped according to their BAI trends in auxological groups (growth-type chronologies), which confirmed that growth of most trees at both sites declined in recent decades, in agreement with increased drought. Because BAI is not expected to decrease without an external forcing, the patterns we uncovered suggest that long-term drought stress has reduced the productivity of beech forests in the central Apennines, in agreement with similar trends identified in other Mediterranean mountains, but opposite to growth trends reported for many forests in central Europe.

PLoS ONE, 2013

Food shortage and other challenges associated with El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) experienced early in life may have long-term impacts on life history traits, but these potential impacts remain virtually unexplored. By monitoring 2556 bluefooted boobies from 11 cohorts, we showed that birds facing warm water ENSO conditions (and probably low food availability) in the natal year were underweight at fledging, recruited earlier and bred less frequently, but showed no deficit in longevity or breeding success over the first 10 years. Life history impacts of ENSO were substantial when experienced in the prenatal year, the natal year, or the second year of life, and absent when experienced in the third year of life, implying that harsh conditions have greater effects when experienced earlier in life. Sexual differences in impacts depended on the age when warm water conditions were experienced: pre-natal and natal experience, respectively, induced early recruitment and influenced the relationship between age and laying date only in females, whereas second year experience reduced total breeding success only of males. Most surprising were positive transgenerational impacts in females: daughters of females that experienced ENSO conditions in their natal year showed improved breeding success. Developmental plasticity of boobies thus enables them to largely neutralize potential long-term impacts of harsh climatic conditions experienced early in life.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013

BMC Ecology, 2013

Background: Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change. Results: We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R 2 from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R 2 from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R 2 from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R 2 of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the ''climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns'' model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. spatial phase synchrony ͉ climatic forcing ͉ phase-dependent demography ͉ genetic diversification

Ecological Applications, 2013

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the ''biological ensemble modeling approach,'' using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the ''biological ensemble modeling approach'' by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Human Ecology, 2014

Global Change Biology, 2013

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and spratdominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

Ecology, 2008

Studies of the impacts of climate and climate change on biological systems often attempt to correlate ecological responses with basin-scale indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, such correlations, while useful for detecting long-term trends, are unable to provide a mechanism linking the physical environment and ecological processes.

Ecological Applications, 2007

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by ;1-48C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by .38C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.38C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.

Journal of Fish Biology, 2004

The survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Baltic Sea was examined in relation to smolt traits (length and origin) and annual environmental factors [sea surface temperature (SST) and seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index], and prey fish abundance (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus) in the main basin and the southern Gulf of Bothnia. The study was based on recapture data for Carlin-tagged hatchery-reared and wild smolts from the Simojoki, a river flowing into the northern Gulf of Bothnia. The survival of the wild and reared groups was analysed using an ANOVA model and a stepwise regression model, with the arcsintransformed proportion of recaptured fish as the response variable. The results demonstrated a combined influence of smolt traits and environmental factors on survival. For the reared Atlantic salmon released in 1986-1998 (28 groups), the increasing annual mean SST in July in the southern Gulf of Bothnia and increasing mean smolt size improved survival. If the SST in July was excluded from the model, the NAO index in May to July also had a positive effect on survival (P < 0Á10). The log 10 -transformed abundance of 0þ year herring in the southern Gulf of Bothnia entered the model (P < 0Á15) if the SST and NAO index were excluded. For the wild Atlantic salmon released in 1972-1993 (21 groups), only the increasing SST in July showed a significant association with improved survival (P ¼ 0Á004). Prey fish abundance in the main basin of the Baltic Sea had no influence on the survival of reared or wild smolt groups. The interaction between smolt size and the SST in July was not significant. The origin was a better, but not a significant, predictor of marine survival compared to the smolt size or the SST in July. The mean recapture rate of the wild groups was twice that of the reared groups in the whole data. The results suggest that cold summers in the Gulf of Bothnia reduce the survival of young Atlantic salmon in both wild and reared groups. The larger smolt size of the reared groups compared with the wild groups to some extent compensated for their lower ability to live in the wild. # 2004 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

Ecography, 2013

Spatial variation in absolute climatic conditions (means, maxima or minima) is widely acknowledged to play a fundamental role in controlling species diversity patterns. In contrast, while evidence is accumulating that variability around mean climatic conditions may also influence species coexistence and persistence, the importance of spatial variation in temporal climatic variability for species diversity is still largely unknown. We used a unique dataset capturing fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in temperature variability across 2490 plots in southeast Australia to examine the comparative strength of absolute temperature and temperature variability in explaining spatial variation in plant diversity. Across all plots combined and in three of five forest types, temperature variability emerged as the better predictor of diversity. In all but one forest type, diversity also exhibited either a significant unimodal or positive linear correlation with temperature variability. This relationship is consistent with theory that predicts diversity will initially increase along a climate variability gradient due to temporal niche partitioning, but at an intermediary point, may decline as the risk of stochastic extinction exceeds competitive stabilization. These findings provide critical empirical evidence of a linkage between spatial variation in temporal climate variability and plant species diversity, and in light of changing climate variability regimes, highlight the need for ecologists to expand their purview beyond absolutes and averages.

Ibis, 2013

Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2007

Aim We investigated geographical variation in the density of the red fox in relation to climatic variables, habitat productivity and seasonality to identify those factors that were the best predictors of fox density.

PLoS ONE, 2013

The effects of environmental perturbations or stressors on individual states can be carried over to subsequent life stages and ultimately affect survival and reproduction. The concentration of corticosterone (CORT) in feathers is an integrated measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal activity during the molting period, providing information on the total baseline and stress-induced CORT secreted during the period of feather growth. Common eiders and greater snow geese replace all flight feathers once a year during the pre-basic molt, which occurs following breeding. Thus, CORT contained in feathers of pre-breeding individuals sampled in spring reflects the total CORT secreted during the previous molting event, which may provide insight into the magnitude or extent of stress experienced during this time period. We used data from multiple recaptures to disentangle the contribution of individual quality vs. external factors (i.e., breeding investment or environmental conditions) on feather CORT in arctic-nesting waterfowl. Our results revealed no repeatability of feather CORT within individuals of either species. In common eiders, feather CORT was not affected by prior reproductive investment, nor by pre-breeding (spring) body condition prior to the molting period. Individual feather CORT greatly varied according to the year, and August-September temperatures explained most of the annual variation in feather CORT. Understanding mechanisms that affect energetic costs and stress responses during molting will require further studies either using long-term data or experiments. Although our study period encompassed only five years, it nonetheless provides evidence that CORT measured in feathers likely reflects responses to environmental conditions experienced by birds during molt, and could be used as a metric to study carry-over effects.

Population Ecology, 2013

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Journal of Ornithology, 2014

Recruitment of juveniles is important for the size of the next year's breeding population in many bird species. Climate variability and predation may affect recruitment rates, and when these factors are spatially correlated, recruitment rates in spatially separated populations of a species may be synchronized. We used production data from an extensive survey of Willow Ptarmigan from 2000 to 2011 to investigate spatial synchrony in recruitment of juveniles within and among mountain region populations. In addition, we assessed the effects of predation and large-as well as local-scale climate on recruitment of juveniles. Recruitment was synchronized both within and among mountain regions, but the mean spatial correlation was strongest among mountain regions. This may be caused by small-scale factors such as predation or habitat structure, or be a result of sampling variation, which may be large at small spatial scales. The strong synchrony suggests that populations are subject to similar environmental forces. We used mixed effect models at the survey area and mountain region scales to assess the effect of rodent abundance (a proxy for predation rates) and local and regional climate during the breeding season on the recruitment of juvenile birds. Model selection based on AICc revealed that the most parsimonious models at both spatial scales included positive effects of rodent abundance and the North Atlantic oscillation during May, June and July (NAO MJJ ). The NAO MJJ index was positively related to temperature and precipitation during the pre-incubation period; temperature during the incubation period and positive NAO MJJ values accelerate plant growth. A comparison of the relative effects of NAO MJJ and rodent abundance showed that variation in NAO MJJ had greatest impact on the recruitment of juveniles. This suggests that the climate effect was stronger than the effect of rodent abundance in our study populations. This is in contrast to previous studies on Willow Ptarmigan, but may be explained by the collapse in rodent cycles since the 1990s. If Willow Ptarmigan dynamics in the past were linked to the rodent cycle through a shared predator regime, this link may have been weakened when rodent cycles became more irregular, resulting in a more pronounced effect of environmental perturbation on the dynamics of ptarmigan. Keywords Spatial synchrony Á NAO Á Recruitment of juveniles Á Ptarmigan Á Temperature Á Precipitation Á Breeding season Á Alternative prey hypothesis Á Local weather Á Breeding success Á Onset of plant growth Zusammenfassung Großräumige klimatische Schwankungen und Abundanz von Nagetieren bestimmen die Rekrutierungsraten von Moorschneehü hnern Lagopus lagopus Die Rekrutierung von Juvenilen ist von großer Bedeutung für die Größe der Brutpopulation vieler Vogelarten im folgenden Jahr. Klimaschwankungen und Prädation können Rekrutierungsraten beeinflussen. Wenn solche Faktoren räumlich korreliert sind, können Rekrutierungsraten in räumlich getrennten Populationen synchronisiert sein. Wir Communicated by F. Bairlein.

Plant Ecology & Diversity, 2013

Background: Genetic differentiation in phenotypic traits is often observed among forest tree populations, but less is known about patterns of adaptive variation within populations. Such variation is expected to enhance the survival likelihood of extant populations under climate change. Aims: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) occurs over a spatially and temporally heterogeneous landscape in Scotland. Our goal was to examine whether populations had differentiated genetically in timing of bud flush in response to spatial heterogeneity and whether variation was also maintained within populations. Methods: Two common-garden studies, involving maternal families of seedlings from 21 native pinewoods, were established and variation in the trait was measured at the beginning of the second growing season. Results: Populations showed genetic differences in the trait correlated with the length of growing season at their site of origin, but the majority of variation was observed within populations. Populations also differed in their levels of variation in the trait; a pattern that may be influenced by spatial variation in the extent of temporal climate variability. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that populations have adapted to their home environments and that they also have substantial ability to adapt in situ to changes in growing season length.

Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society, 2010

Interactions within and between species complicate quantification of climate effects, by causing indirect, often delayed, effects of climate fluctuations and compensation of mortality. Here we identify direct and indirect climate effects by analysing unique Russian time-series data from the Norwegian Sea-Barents Sea ecosystem on the first life stages of cod, capelin, herring and haddock, their predators, competitors and zooplanktonic prey. By analysing growth and survival from one life stage to the next (eggs-larvae-juveniles-recruits), we find evidence for both bottom-up, direct and top-down effects of climate. Ambient zooplankton biomass predicts survival of all species, whereas ambient temperature mainly affects survival through effects on growth. In warm years, all species experienced improved growth and feeding conditions. Cohorts born following a warm year will, however, experience increased predation and competition because of increased densities of subadult cod and herring, ...

Global Change Biology, 2004

Climate change, habitat degradation, and direct exploitation are thought to threaten biodiversity. But what makes some species more sensitive to global change than others? Approaches to this question have relied on comparing the fate of contrasting groups of species. However, if some ecological parameter affects the fate of species faced with global change, species response should vary smoothly along the parameter gradient. Thus, grouping species into few, often two, discrete classes weakens the approach. Using data from the common breeding bird survey in France -a large set of species with much variability with respect to the variables considered -we show that a quantitative measure of habitat specialization and of latitudinal distribution both predict recent 13 year trends of population abundance among 77 terrestrial species: the more northerly distributed and the more specialized a species is, the sharper its decline. On the other hand, neither hunting status, migrating strategy nor body mass predicted population growth rate variation among common bird species. Overall, these results are qualitatively very similar to the equivalent relationships found among the British butterfly populations. This constitutes additional evidence that biodiversity in Western Europe is under the double negative influence of climate change and land use change.

Ecology, 2004

The intriguing impact of physical mixing processes on species interactions has always fascinated ecologists. Here, we exploit recent advances in plankton models to develop competition theory that predicts how changes in turbulent mixing affect competition for light between buoyant and sinking phytoplankton species. We compared the model predictions with a lake experiment, in which the turbulence structure of the entire lake was manipulated using artificial mixing. Vertical eddy diffusivities were calculated from the measured temperature microstructure in the lake. Changes in turbulent mixing of the lake caused a dramatic shift in phytoplankton species composition, consistent with the predictions of the competition model. The buoyant and potentially toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis dominated at low turbulent diffusivity, whereas sinking diatoms and green algae dominated at high turbulent diffusivity. These findings warn that changes in the turbulence structure of natural waters, for instance driven by climate change, may induce major shifts in the species composition of phytoplankton communities.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 2013

Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator-prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population-and communitylevel responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:49-61. # 2012 SETAC

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 2013

ABSTRACT Abstract 1 Spatial pattern in the distribution and abundance of organisms is an emergent property of collective rates of reproduction, survival and movement of individuals in a heterogeneous environment. 2 The form, intensity and scale of spatial patterning can be used to test hypotheses regarding the relative importance of candidate processes to population dynamics. 3 Using 84 plots across eastern North America, we studied populations of two associated plant parasites, the invasive felted beech scale (Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind.) and native Neonectria fungi that together cause beech bark disease (BBD). 4 We evaluated spatial patterns at the scales of trees within stands, stands within the forest, and forests within the landscape to examine four hypothetically important factors in the ecology of the disease: 1) local contagion within stands; 2) regional contagion, or among patch infection-reinfection dynamics; 3) variation in host susceptibility linked to genetic and/or environmental heterogeneity; and 4) climate effects on population growth of BBD organisms. 5 Analyses revealed a surprising lack of spatial aggregation in BBD populations among trees, stands, and forests. This implies that propagule pressure is generally high enough throughout the infested region of North America that neither trees nor stands are spared from the disease by dispersal limitations of the disease agents. It further indicates that variation in tree and stand level susceptibility have minimal impact on BBD dynamics and that climate is not a conspicuous driver of abundance within the core range of BBD.

Geophysical Monograph Series, 2000

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2013

In Morocco, wheat production shows a high interannual variability due to uncertain rainfall. In view of the importance of this resource to the country's economy, it is important to gain a better understanding of the natural largescale climate oscillation governing this variability. In this study, we analyzed de-trended (1) time series of common wheat yields from 11 agricultural provinces that account for 80 % of national wheat production; (2) monthly rainfall and 10-day temperature from ten meteorological stations; (3) 10-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the AVHRR sensor; (4) monthly atmospheric climate indices [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Pattern (SCA)] and monthly 500 hPa geopotentials fields; and (5) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) fields and indices (NIÑO3, Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic). The relationship between rainfall and temperature during tillering in early winter and grain filling in early spring and wheat yields already observed at the plot scale was also found to be significant at the provincial scale. The linkages between wheat yields and large scale climate have been analyzed for the first time over Morocco. In agreement with previous studies, results show a complex and competing influence of different climate phenomena. The NAO is found to be significantly related to yields during the early stage of wheat growth in December, whereas the SCA correlates with yields later in the season, in January and February. Interesting lagged correlations with higher lead time are also highlighted, with the leading modes of SST variability in the equatorial Atlantic during October (the "Atlantic Niño" mode) and in the North Atlantic (the "Atlantic tripole" mode) in February. Our conclusion is that regional climate indices and variables represent valuable information with which to increase lead time and skill regarding wheat yield predictions in Morocco.

Oikos, 2005

T. 2005. Winter weather affects asp viper Vipera aspis population dynamics through susceptible juveniles. Á/ Oikos 110: 55 Á/66.

PLoS ONE, 2013

Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994-2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R 2 adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R 2 adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising step in integrating stranding records to monitor the consequences of environmental changes in marine ecosystems over long time scales.

Ecology, 2011

Although ecologists have long recognized that certain mammalian species exhibit high-amplitude, often multiannual, fluctuations in abundance, their causes have remained poorly understood and the subject of intense debate. A key contention has been the relative role of density-dependent and density-independent processes in governing population dynamics. We applied capture-mark-recapture analysis to 25 years of monthly trapping data from a fluctuating prairie vole Microtus ochrogaster population in Illinois, USA, to estimate realized population growth rates and associated vital rates (survival and recruitment) and modeled them as a function of vole density and density-independent climatic variation. We also tested for phase dependence and seasonality in the effects of the above processes. Variation in the realized population growth rate was best explained by phase-specific changes in vole density lagged by one month and mean monthly temperatures with no time lags. The underlying vital rates, survival and recruitment, were influenced by the additive and interactive effects of phase, vole density, and mean monthly temperatures. Our results are consistent with the observation that large-scale population fluctuations are characterized by phase-specific changes in demographic and physiological characteristics. Our findings also support the growing realization that the interaction between climatic variables and density-dependent factors may be a widespread phenomenon, and they suggest that the direction and magnitude of such interactive effects may be phase specific. We conclude that density-dependent and density-independent climatic variables work in tandem during each phase of density fluctuations to drive the dynamics of fluctuating populations.

Oikos, 2007

... Torkild Tveraa,; Per Fauchald,; Nigel Gilles Yoccoz,; Rolf Anker Ims,; Ronny Aanes,; Kjell Arild Høgda. ... A recent study revealed that the remaining predators (wolverine-Gulo gulo, red fox-Vulpes vulpes, lynx-Lynx lynx and golden eagle-Aquila chrysaetos) affect mortality of reindeer ...

Climatic Change, 2012

Abstract This study investigates the connections between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production in the NW Mediterranean, taking the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) as an indicator of climate variability. The basic working ...

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2013

As the earth system moves to a novel state, model systems (experimental, observational, paleoecological) are needed to assess and improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models under environments with no contemporary analog. In recent years, we have intensively studied the no-analog plant associations and climates in eastern North America during the last deglaciation to better constrain their spatiotemporal distribution, test hypotheses about climatic and megaherbivory controls, and assess the accuracy of species- and community-level models. The formation of no-analog plant associations was asynchronous, beginning first in the south-central United States; at sites in the north-central United States, it is linked to declining megafaunal abundances. Insolation and temperature were more seasonal than present, creating climates currently nonexistent in North America, and shifting species-climate relationships for some taxa. These shifts pose a common challenge to empirical paleoclimatic reconstructions, species distribution models (SDMs), and conservation-optimization models based on SDMs. Steps forward include combining recent and paleoecological data to more fully describe species&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#39; fundamental niches, employing community-level models to model shifts in species interactions under no-analog climates, and assimilating paleoecological data with mechanistic ecosystem models. Accurately modeling species interactions under novel environments remains a fundamental challenge for all forms of ecological models.

Scientific reports, 2013

Unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were observed off the west coast of Australia in February-March 2011. Peak SST during a 2-week period were 5°C warmer than normal, causing widespread coral bleaching and fish kills. Understanding the climatic drivers of this extreme event, which we dub &quot;Ningaloo Niño&quot;, is crucial for predicting similar events under the influence of global warming. Here we use observational data and numerical models to demonstrate that the extreme warming was mostly driven by an unseasonable surge of the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current in austral summer, which transported anomalously warm water southward along the coast. The unusual intensification of the Leeuwin Current was forced remotely by oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections associated with the extraordinary 2010-2011 La Niña. The amplitude of the warming was boosted by both multi-decadal trends in the Pacific toward more La Niña-like conditions and intraseasonal variations...

Biology Letters, 2005

Influences of climate on life history traits in natural populations are well documented. However, the implications of between-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity underlying observed trait-environment relationships are rarely considered due to the large, long-term datasets required for such analysis. Studies typically present correlations of annual trait means with climate or assume that individual phenotypic responses are constant. Here, we examine this additional level of variation and show that, in a red deer population on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, changes in climate generate changes in phenotype only amongst individuals who have experienced favourable ecological conditions. Examination of relationships between offspring birth weight and spring temperature within the lifetimes of individual females revealed that the tendency to respond to climate declined as the population density experienced early in life increased. The presence of such systematic variation in individual plasticity is rarely documented in the wild, and has important implications for our understanding of the environmental dependencies of traits under varying ecological conditions.

Ecology, 2014

Temporal changes in phenological traits arising as a consequence of recent rapid environmental change have been widely demonstrated in animal populations. Increasingly, studies are seeking to understand the impact of changes in such traits on individual fitness and population dynamics, with the ultimate aim of predicting population persistence or extinction under different climate scenarios. Here, we examined the effects of environmental change on maternal reproductive traits in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and sought to explain why, despite a rapid advance in offspring birth dates, we observed no apparent consequences for offspring fitness. By using path analysis, we identified both direct and indirect paths along which changes in environmental conditions affected birth date, birth mass, juvenile survival, and female fecundity. In general, warmer temperatures were associated with earlier birth dates and greater birth mass, and higher rainfall was associated with reduced juvenile survival and reduced female fecundity. We also examined concurrent effects of population density, maternal age, and reproductive history, and found that temporal stasis in average trait values, at least in part, could be explained by antagonistic roles of direct and indirect effects of changing climate and increasing population density. Identification of the many mechanisms that contribute to the dynamics of phenotypic traits is challenging; this study demonstrates the need to consider both climatic and demographic variation in order to understand the fitness consequences of changes in phenological traits.

Hydrological Processes, 2011

Hjerdt N. 2009. Nature as the "natural" goal for water management: a conversation. Ambio 38: 209-214. Blenckner T. 2005. A conceptual model of climate-related effects on lake ecosystems. Hydrobiologia 533: 1-14. Brockerhoff EG, Jactel H, Parrotta JA, Quine CP, Sayer J. 2008. Plantation forests and biodiversity: oxymoron or opportunity? Biodiversity and Conservation 17: 925-951. Brooks RT. 2009. Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States. Climatic Change 95: 469-483. Buttle JM. 2002. Rethinking the donut-the case for hydrologicallyrelevant buffer zones. Hydrological Processes 16: 3093-3096. Chapin FS. 2009. Managing ecosystems sustainably: the key role of resilience. In Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World , Chapin FS, Kofinas GP, Folke C (eds). Springer: New York; 29-53. Creed IF, Sanford SE, Beall FD, Molot LA, Dillon PJ. 2003. Cryptic wetlands: integrating hidden wetlands in regression models of the export of dissolved organic carbon from forested landscapes. Hydrological Processes 17: 3629-3648. Creed IF, Sass GZ, Wolniewicz MB, Devito KJ. 2008. Incorporating hydrological dynamics into buffer strip design on the sub-humid Boreal Plain of Alberta. Forest Ecology and Management 256: 1984-1994. Creed IF, Sass GZ, Beall FD, Buttle JM, Moore RD, Donnelly M. In press (a). Hydrological principles for water conservation and sustainable forest management. A State of Knowledge report. Sustainable Forest Management Network, Edmonton, Alberta. Creed IF, Sass GZ, Beall FD, Buttle JM, Moore RD, Donnelly M. In press (b). Conserving water resources in our changing forested landscapes: a synthesis of the state-of-knowledge on scientific theory, data, and techniques. A State of Knowledge report. Sustainable Forest Management Network, Edmonton, Alberta. Creed IF, Sass GZ. 2011. Digital terrain analysis approaches for tracking hydrological and biogeochemical pathways and processes in forested landscapes. In Forest Hydrology and Biogeochemistry: Synthesis of Past Research and Future Directions, Levia D, Carlyle-Moses D, Tanaka T (eds). Springer-Verlag: New York. Creed IF, Beall FD. 2009. Distributed topographic indicators for predicting nitrogen export from headwater catchments. Water Resources Research 45: W10407. Croke JC, Hairsine PB. 2006. Sediment delivery in managed forests: a review.

Biology Letters, 2005

The relative importance of winter harshness and early summer foraging conditions are of prime interest when assessing the effect of global warming on Arctic and mountainous ecosystems. We explored how climate and vegetation onset (satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data) determined individual performance in three reindeer populations (data on 27 814 calves sampled over 11 years). Snow conditions, spring temperatures and topography were the main determinants of the onset of the vegetation. An earlier onset positively affected the body mass of calves born the following autumn, while there was no significant direct negative impact of the previous winter. This study underlines the major impact of winter and spring climatic conditions, determining the spring and summer food availability, and the subsequent growth of calves among alpine herbivores.

2012

Animal responses to global climate variation might be spatially inconsistent. This may arise from spatial variation in factors limiting populations' growth or from differences in the links between global climate patterns and ecologically relevant local climate variation. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a spatially consistent relation to temperature, but inconsistent spatial relation to snow depth in Scandinavia. Furthermore, there are multiple mechanistic ways by which climate may limit animal populations, involving both direct effects through thermoregulation and indirect pathways through trophic interactions. It is conceptually appealing to directly model the predicted mechanistic links. This includes the use of climate variables mimicking such interactions, for example, to use growing degree days (GDD) as a proxy for plant growth rather than average monthly temperature. Using a unique database of autumn body mass of 83331 domestic lambs from the period 1992-2007 in four alpine ranges in Norway, we demonstrate the utility of hierarchical, mechanistic path models fitted using a Bayesian approach to analyse explicitly predicted relationships among environmental variables and between lamb body mass and the environmental variables. We found large spatial variation in strength of responses of autumn lamb body mass to the NAO, to a proxy for plant growth in spring (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) and effects even differed in direction to local summer climate. Average local temperature outperformed GDD as a predictor of the NDVI, whereas the NAO index in two areas outperformed local weather variables as a predictor of lamb body mass, despite the weaker mechanistic link. Our study highlights that spatial variation in strength of herbivore responses may arise from several processes. Furthermore, mechanistically more appealing measures do not always increase predictive power due to scale of measurement and since global measures may provide more relevant "weather packages" for larger scales.

Biology Letters, 2006

Time-series covering 23 years for a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica L.) at Røst, northern Norway, was used to explore any indirect effects of climatic variations on chick production. By fitting statistical models on the duration of the nestling period, we found that it may be estimated using the average sea temperature and salinity at 0-20 m depth in March (having a positive and a negative effect, respectively). We propose that when the phytoplankton bloom occurs in early spring, adverse oceanographic conditions, i.e. low temperature and high salinity in March, have a negative effect on puffin reproduction by degradation of the prey availability (mainly Clupea harengus) for chick-feeding adults three months later.

Global Change Biology, 2008

We found that synchronous fluctuations of two congeneric seabird species across the entire Arctic and sub-Arctic regions were associated with changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) that were linked to two climate shifts, in 1977 and again in 1989. As the SST changes linked to climate shifts were congruent at the scale of ocean basins, fluctuations of these species occurred similarly at continental or basin scale. Changes in colony sizes were examined for a decade following climate shifts. The magnitude of the SST shift was more important than its direction in determining the subsequent rate of population change. Seabirds declined when the SST shift was large and increased when the shift was small, although the effect differed between the Arctic-breeding species and the more temperate-breeding congener. The Arctic species, Thick-billed Murre (Uria lomvia) increased most rapidly when SST warmed slightly, while the temperate species, Common Murre (Uria aalge) showed most rapid increase with moderate cooling. Both showed negative trends with large temperature shifts in either direction. This pattern was replicated during both climate oscillations. Negative population trends in seabirds presumably indicate the alteration of underlying food webs. Hence, similar widespread fluctuations in response to climate shifts are likely for other ecosystem components (marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates).

Ecology Letters, 2005

Climatic changes are disrupting otherwise tight trophic interactions between predator and prey. Most of the earlier studies have primarily focused on the temporal dimension of the relationship in the framework of the match-mismatch hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that predator's recruitment will be high if the peak of the prey availability temporally matches the most energy-demanding period of the predators breeding phenology. However, the match-mismatch hypothesis ignores the level of food abundance while this can compensate small mismatches. Using a novel time-series model explicitly quantifying both the timing and the abundance component for trophic relationships, we here show that timing and abundance of food affect recruitment differently in a marine (cod/zooplankton), a marine-terrestrial (puffin/herring) and a terrestrial (sheep/vegetation) ecosystem. The quantification of the combined effect of abundance and timing of prey on predator dynamics enables us to come closer to the mechanisms by which environment variability may affect ecological systems. Ecology Letters, (2005) 8: 952-958

Journal of Ecology, 2014

1. Mismatches between species distributions and habitat suitability are predicted by niche theory and have important implications for forecasting how species may respond to environmental changes. Quantifying these mismatches is challenging, however, due to the high dimensionality of species niches and the large spatial and temporal variability in population dynamics.

Nature, 2004

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.

Ecology, 2008

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age-and sexspecific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments.

BMC Biology, 2013

Background: Significant effects of recent global climate change have already been observed in a variety of ecosystems, with evidence for shifts in species ranges, but rarely have such consequences been related to the changes in the species genetic pool. The stretch of Atlantic coast between North Africa and North Iberia is ideal for studying the relationship between species distribution and climate change as it includes the distributional limits of a considerable number of both cold-and warm-water species.

Austral Ecology, 2006

All natural populations fluctuate in abundance and age structure through time; understanding why they do so is a critical step towards their effective management and conservation. However, the long-term data sets needed for such an understanding are rarely available, especially for tropical organisms. A 17-year capturemark-recapture study yielded detailed information on the demography of water pythons (Liasis fuscus) and their main prey, the dusky rat (Rattus colletti), on the Adelaide River flood plain in tropical Australia. The link between annual rainfall patterns and rat demography was highly non-linear. Rat numbers were low during years with low and high rainfall at the end of the wet season (April). Numbers of both predators and prey fluctuated considerably among years. Annual fluctuations in rat numbers generated a corresponding variation in rates of female python reproduction, python body condition and survival. Although variation in recruitment, survival and prey abundance all had a significant impact on annual fluctuations in python numbers, our analyses suggest that recruitment constituted the main determinant in driving the population dynamics of these large tropical predators. In combination with our other studies on this system, the data show that population dynamics of the water python population is ultimately driven by annual variation in rainfall, mediated via shifts in prey availability. The water pythons and the dusky rats of the Adelaide River flood plain thus demonstrate an unusually clear and direct link between an abiotic factor (rainfall) and predator-prey population dynamics.

PLoS ONE, 2012

Predicting the consequences of climate change is a major challenge in ecology and wildlife management. While the impact of changes in climatic conditions on distribution ranges has been documented for many organisms, the consequences of changes in resource dynamics for species' overall performance have seldom been investigated. This study addresses this gap by identifying the factors shaping the reproductive synchrony of ungulates. In temporally-variable environments, reproductive phenology of individuals is a key determinant of fitness, with the timing of reproduction affecting their reproductive output and future performance. We used a satellite-based index of resource availability to explore how the level of seasonality and inter-annual variability in resource dynamics affect birth season length of ungulate populations. Contrary to what was previously thought, we found that both the degree of seasonal fluctuation in resource dynamics and inter-annual changes in resource availability influence the degree of birth synchrony within wild ungulate populations. Our results highlight how conclusions from previous interspecific analyses, which did not consider the existence of shared lifehistory among species, should be treated with caution. They also support the existence of a multi-faceted link between temporal variation in resource availability and breeding synchrony in terrestrial mammals, and increase our understanding of the mechanisms shaping reproductive synchrony in large herbivores, thus enhancing our ability to predict the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008

Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using Ϸ34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940 -2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.

Ecological Entomology, 2014

1. Although both endogenous and exogenous processes regulate populations, the current understanding of the contributions from density dependence and climate to the population dynamics of eruptive herbivores remains limited.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish, 2011

Regional Environmental Change, 2011

Impact of sea-surface warming upon the fish assemblages of the Portuguese coast was assessed under two scenarios, the A2 and the B2 scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios), which when coupled with a regional circulation model HadRM3 predict 1 and 2°C of sea-surface warming until the year 2100. Species richness increased in the Portuguese coast. In both scenarios, there was a latitudinal gradient in the amount of lost and gained species, increasing from north to south. An anomaly in the latitudinal gradient of species richness was detected in the southernmost area, which presented the lowest species richness of all areas, in the A2 scenario, and appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Very few species were totally eliminated from Portuguese waters. For the Portuguese coast as a whole, there were more new than lost species, in both scenarios. Most of the new species were commercially important species, in the majority subtropical in the north and tropical in the south, mainly demersal and reef-associated. Reef-associated species also increased in relative importance. A commercial opportunity for fisheries may arise from climate warming, since most of the new species were commercial species and not many commercial species were lost. An increasing gradient from north to south was detected in the colonization of new species of herbivores, planktivores, and omnivores, as well as lower mean trophic level, which might have consequences for the future of trophic webs.

Clinical <html_ent glyph="@amp;" ascii="&amp;"/> Experimental Allergy, 2005

Background A number of media outlets now issue medium-range ( $ 7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts.

Ecological Applications, 2009

Over the past three decades, the decline and altered spatial distribution of the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska have been attributed to changes in the distribution or abundance of their prey due to the cumulative effects of fisheries and environmental perturbations. During this period, dietary prey occurrence and diet diversity were related to population decline within metapopulation regions of the western stock of Steller sea lions, suggesting that environmental conditions may be variable among regions. The objective of this study, therefore, was to examine regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions within the context of recent measures of diet diversity and population trajectories. Habitat use was assessed by deploying satellite-depth recorders and satellite relay data loggers on juvenile Steller sea lions (n ¼ 45) over a five-year period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004) within four regions of the western stock, including the western, central, and eastern Aleutian Islands, and central Gulf of Alaska. Areas used by sea lions during summer months (June, July, and August) were demarcated using satellite telemetry data and characterized by environmental variables (sea surface temperature [SST] and chlorophyll a [chl a]), which possibly serve as proxies for environmental processes or prey. Spatial patterns of SST diversity and Steller sea lion population trends among regions were fairly consistent with trends reported for diet studies, possibly indicating a link between environmental diversity, prey diversity, and distribution or abundance of Steller sea lions. Overall, maximum spatial heterogeneity coupled with minimal temporal variability of SST appeared to be beneficial for Steller sea lions. In contrast, these patterns were not consistent for chl a, and there appeared to be an ecological threshold. Understanding how Steller sea lions respond to measures of environmental heterogeneity will ultimately be useful for implementing ecosystem management approaches and developing additional conservation strategies.

Ecological Monographs, 2007

Quantifying the effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors in demographic and dispersal processes remains a major challenge in population ecology. Based on unique long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data on pike (Esox lucius) from Windermere, United Kingdom, we provide estimates of density-dependent and densityindependent effects, under the influence of individual size and sex, on natural survival, fishing mortality, and dispersal. Because survival is expected to be related to the individual growth process, we also explore the degree of parallelism between the two processes by applying the best-supported survival model structure to individual growth data. The CMR data were analyzed using sex-and age-structured multistate models (two lake basins: north and south) assuming no seasonal variation in survival and dispersal. Total survival and dispersal probabilities were insensitive to this assumption, and capture probability was shown to be robust to assumptions about intra-annual variation in survival and dispersal. The analyses revealed that large pike (.55 cm) displayed marked basin-specific differences in survival and dispersal responses to the abundance of conspecifics in which pike from the south basin show high density dependence in survival and a low degree of density dependence in dispersal, whereas the opposite was found for those of the north basin. Both large-and small-pike dispersals were found to be dependent upon the between-basin gradient in perch (Perca fluviatilis, the main prey) abundance, but most so for north-to-south dispersal. The strength and pattern of density-dependent mortality in small pike was influenced by temperature in a peculiar way: at low summer temperatures survival was lowest at high small-pike abundances and low perch abundances; at low temperatures, survival was lowest at high small-pike abundances and high perch abundances. Analyses of individual small-pike growth trajectories showed a similar modulation of the positive perch abundance effect on growth rate when temperature increases. The growth analysis also indicated that cannibalism may be biased in favor of rapidly growing individuals or at least increased growth rate for the surviving individuals. Altogether, this study provides evidence of a complex interplay between densitydependent and density-independent factors affecting survival, dispersal, and individual growth of an aquatic top predator.

The American Naturalist, 2011

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society, 2014

Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability...

Marine Biology, 2012

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue of Marine Biology, but also as a review of the key findings of the AQUASHIFT research program which is the source of the articles published in this issue. AQUASHIFT is an interdisciplinary research program targeted to analyze the response of temperate zone aquatic ecosystems (both marine and freshwater) to global warming. The main conclusions of AQUASHIFT relate to (a) shifts in geographic distribution, (b) shifts in seasonality, (c) temporal mismatch in food chains, (d) biomass responses to warming, (e) responses of body size, (f) harmful bloom intensity, (f), changes of biodiversity, and (g) the dependence of shifts to temperature changes during critical seasonal windows.

Wildlife Monographs, 2013

Grancel Fitz measuring the circumference of the main beam of an Alaska-Yukon moose. Fitz and Dr. James L. Clark were key members of a committee formed by the Boone and Crockett Club to develop an equitable, objective measurement system for big game of North America. Photo courtesy Boone and Crockett Club. Monteith et al. Size of Horn-Like Structures i

Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society, 2015

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium...

Global Change Biology, 2005

The ultimate reason why birds should advance their phenology in response to climate change is to match the shifting phenology of underlying levels of the food chain. In a seasonal environment, the timing of food abundance is one of the crucial factors to which birds should adapt their timing of reproduction. They can do this by shifting egg-laying date (LD), and also by changing other life-history characters that affect the period between laying of the eggs and hatching of the chicks. In a long-term study of the migratory Pied Flycatcher, we show that the peak of abundance of nestling food (caterpillars) has advanced during the last two decades, and that the birds advanced their LD. LD strongly correlates with the timing of the caterpillar peak, but in years with an early food peak the birds laid their eggs late relative to this food peak. In such years, the birds advance their hatching date by incubating earlier in the clutch and reducing the interval between laying the last egg to hatching of the first egg, thereby partly compensating for their relative late LD. Paradoxically, they also laid larger clutches in the years with an early food peak, and thereby took more time to lay (i.e. one egg per day). Clutch size therefore declined more strongly with LD in years with an early food peak. This stronger response is adaptive because the fitness of an egg declined more strongly with date in early than in late years. Clearly, avian life-history traits are correlated and Pied Flycatchers apparently optimize over the whole complex of the traits including LD, clutch size and the onset of incubation. Climate change will lead to changing selection pressures on this complex of traits and presumably the way they are correlated.

Nature, 2006

Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels 1-3 , which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca 4 . In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient 4 . Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon 1 , and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.

The Emu: official organ of the Australasian Ornithologists' Union

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in Australia were examined using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme (NRS; 1957–2002), the Atlas of Australian Birds (1998–2006), and climatic data (1952–2006). Breeding in north-western Australia was concentrated in summer, while in other regions the peak of breeding occurred during spring. Breeding success varied between regions and years but was generally highest in Tasmania. Clutch-size (mean 3.57 eggs ± 0.033 s.e., n = 549 clutches) did not vary regionally or temporally. In the northeast, breeding became earlier over time (~1.9 days per year, NRS), while in the south-east, breeding became later (~0.9 days per year); in other regions temporal trends were not evident. Only Tasmania showed a significant temporal change in breeding success (decrease of ~1.5% per year). All regions experienced warming climates, and annual rainfall increased in north-western regions and decreased i...

PLoS ONE, 2011

Large-scale climate change is superimposed on interacting patterns of climate variability that fluctuate on numerous temporal and spatial scales-elements of which, such as seasonal timing, may have important impacts on local and regional ecosystem forcing. Lake Baikal in Siberia is not only the world's largest and most biologically diverse lake, but it has exceptionally strong seasonal structure in ecosystem dynamics that may be dramatically affected by fluctuations in seasonal timing. We applied time-frequency analysis to a near-continuous, 58-year record of water temperature from Lake Baikal to examine how seasonality in the lake has fluctuated over the past half century and to infer underlying mechanisms. On decadal scales, the timing of seasonal onset strongly corresponds with deviation in the zonal wind intensity as described by length of day (LOD); on shorter scales, these temperature patterns shift in concert with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Importantly, the connection between ENSO and Lake Baikal is gated by the cool and warm periods of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Large-scale climatic phenomena affecting Siberia are apparent in Lake Baikal surface water temperature data, dynamics resulting from jet stream and storm track variability in central Asia and across the Northern Hemisphere.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2012

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 2013

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled ''The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.'' The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:13-19. # 2012 SETAC

Oikos, 2011

Trophic matches and mismatches -Rockwell et al. -page 2 (Abstract)

PLoS ONE, 2009

Background: Given the recent changes in climate, there is an urgent need to understand the evolutionary ability of populations to respond to these changes.

New Phytologist, 2009

Oecologia, 2012

In a changing environment, the maintenance of communities is subject to many constraints (phenology, resources, climate, etc.). One such constraint is the relationship between conspecifics and competitors. In mixed colonies, seabirds may have to cope with interspecific and intraspecific competition for both space and food resources. We applied competitive interaction models to data on three seabird breeding populations: black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Brünnich&amp;#39;s guillemot (Uria lomvia) collected over 27-years at Kharlov Island in the Barents Sea. We found a competitive effect only for the kittiwake breeding population size on the common guillemot breeding population size when kittiwakes were abundant. The timing of kittiwake breeding negatively affected the number of breeding Brünnich&amp;#39;s guillemots. The timing of breeding was negatively correlated to biomass of the main pelagic fish in the Barents Sea, the capelin (Mallotus villosus), which suggests an indirect action. The community matrix shows that the community was not stable. The kittiwake population did not decrease as seen in north Norwegian populations. Likewise, the common guillemot population, after a crash in 1985, was recovering at Kharlov while Norwegian populations were decreasing. Only the Brünnich&amp;#39;s guillemot showed a decrease at Kharlov until 1999. We suggest that the stability of the kittiwake and common guillemot populations at Kharlov is due to better feeding conditions than in colonies of the Norwegian coast, linked to a possible eastward shift of the capelin population with the temperature increase of the Barents Sea.

Geophysical Research Letters, 2013

1] Boreal winter near-surface atmospheric circulations over the Hawaiian region are known to influence the state of the tropical Pacific and initiate the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Here we show that these same preceding near-surface circulations have an additional influence on the longitudinal position of the resultant ENSO-related sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well, with warm (cold) events systematically shifted to the east (west) of the typical SST anomalies. In influencing this positioning, these atmospheric circulations in turn modify the near-and far-field climate responses to these SSTs such that during warm events, the typical ENSO-related responses east (west) of the dateline are generally enhanced (reduced); conversely, during cold events, the typical ENSO-related responses are generally reduced (enhanced). The fact that the extratropical atmospheric circulations in question influence the asymmetry of ENSO extremes with a 12 month lead time carries important implications for predicting the socioeconomic impacts of these events. Citation: Anderson, B. T.,

Wetlands, 2014

Tidal marshes are narrow wetlands distributed worldwide between the ocean and a variety of inland-habitats. The high diversity of interacting terrestrial habitats may influence terrestrial species composition and abundance in marshes. We investigated if characteristics of small mammal assemblages inhabiting the South-West-Atlantic (SWA) marshes are influenced by marsh characteristics, or if they vary in relation to changes in the inland biogeographic context. Sampling at five-Spartina marshes across the SWA-coast showed that plant cover, richness and height (ANOVA analysis) and small mammal assemblages (PERMANOVA analysis) differed between habitats (marsh or inland) depending on the site. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) showed that abundance of small mammals in marshes is related to vegetation cover and diversity. However, its richness was related to the richness of small mammal at the inland habitats. In fact, species present in each marsh were also recorded in adjacent inland habitats. Species composition differed among similar marshes surrounded by different landscapes, while those in the same landscape did not. Consequently, regional abundance of small mammals in SWA-marshes is consistent with ecological sorting of abundance ranges along environmental gradients (e.g., plant-cover and richness). In contrast, landscape composition and configuration strongly affect marsh small mammal species assemblages, even if the marshhabitats are quite similar.

Aquatic Ecology, 2012

Recently, major advances in the climatezooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time.

Polar Biology, 2007

Total numbers of adult female southern elephant seals (cows) breeding at Macquarie Island were determined for 19 of the 52 year period between 1952 . Totals for 1952 (exc. 1959 were estimated from the relationship between censuses of the isthmus study area and concurrent censuses for the whole island. Totals for 1987-2004 were obtained by direct census of the entire island in mid-October. Cow numbers decreased from a maximum of about 40,000 in the 1950s to a minimum of 18,300 in 2000, but then increased slightly to 19,200 in 2004. Nonlinear and post-hoc linear analysis of the count data identified 1999 as the year when the exponential rate of change (r) slowed from -1.4% per annum to near zero. The rate of change was not uniform for each census sub-area counted (1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004), suggesting that certain terrestrially based density-dependent mechanisms were influencing the annual distribution of cows.

Ibis, 2012

Biology Letters, 2015

Climatic variation has been invoked as an explanation of population dynamics for a variety of taxa. Much work investigating the link between climatic forcings and population fluctuation uses single-taxon case studies. Here, we conduct comparative analyses of a multi-decadal dataset describing population dynamics of 50 co-occurring butterfly species at 10 sites in Northern California. Specifically, we explore the potential commonality of response to weather among species that encompass a gradient of population dynamics via a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework. Results of this analysis demonstrate that certain weather conditions impact volatile, or irruptive, species differently as compared with relatively stable species. Notably, precipitation-related variables, including indices of the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation, have a more pronounced impact on the most volatile species. We hypothesize that these variables influence vegetation resource availability, and thus indirectly influence population dynamics of volatile taxa. As one of the first studies to show a common influence of weather among taxa with similar population dynamics, the results presented here suggest new lines of research in the field of biotic-abiotic interactions.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2008

The oceans sequester carbon from the atmosphere partly as a result of biological productivity. Over much of the ocean surface, this productivity is limited by essential nutrients and we discuss whether it is likely that sequestration can be enhanced by supplying limiting nutrients. Various methods of supply have been suggested and we discuss the efficacy of each and the potential side effects that may develop as a result. Our conclusion is that these methods have the potential to enhance sequestration but that the current level of knowledge from the observations and modelling carried out to date does not provide a sound foundation on which to make clear predictions or recommendations. For ocean fertilization to become a viable option to sequester CO 2 , we need more extensive and targeted fieldwork and better mathematical models of ocean biogeochemical processes. Models are needed both to interpret field observations and to make reliable predictions about the side effects of large-scale fertilization. They would also be an essential tool with which to verify that sequestration has effectively taken place. There is considerable urgency to address climate change mitigation and this demands that new fieldwork plans are developed rapidly. In contrast to previous experiments, these must focus on the specific objective which is to assess the possibilities of CO 2 sequestration through fertilization.

Ecology Letters, 2006

Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few ÔrulesÕ known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the Ôpredictive-powerÕ of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.

The Journal of Wildlife Management, 2011

Human-caused habitat change has been implicated in current woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population declines across North America. Increased early seral habitat associated with industrial footprint can result in an increase in ungulate densities and subsequently those of their predator, wolves (Canis lupus). Higher wolf densities can result in increased encounters between wolves and caribou and consequently higher caribou mortality. We contrasted changes in moose (Alces alces) and deer (Odocoileus spp.) densities and assessed their effects on wolf-caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta, Canada, pre (1994Canada, pre ( -1997Canada, pre ( ) versus post (2005Canada, pre ( -2009 major industrial expansion in the region. Observable white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) increased 17.5-fold but moose remained unchanged. Wolf numbers also increased from approximately 6-11.5/1,000 km 2 . Coincident with these changes, spatial overlap between wolf pack territories and caribou range was high relative to the mid-1990s. The high number of wolf locations in caribou range suggests that forays were not merely exploratory, but rather represented hunting forays and denning locations. Scat analysis indicated that wolf consumption of moose declined substantively during this time period, whereas use of deer increased markedly and deer replaced moose as the primary prey of wolves. Caribou increased 10-fold in the diet of wolves and caribou population trends in the region changed from stable to declining. Wolf use of beaver (Castor canadensis) increased since the mid-1990s. We suggest that recent declines in woodland caribou populations in the southerly extent of their range have occurred because high deer densities resulted in a numeric response by wolves and consequently higher incidental predation on caribou. Our results indicate that management actions to conserve caribou must now include deer in primary prey and wolf reduction programs. ß 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2005

A central question in population ecology is how to estimate the effects of common environmental noise, e.g. due to large-scale climate patterns, on the synchrony in population fluctuations over large distances. We show how the environmental variance can be split into components generated by several environmental variables and how these can be estimated from time-series observations. 2. With a set of time-series observations from different locations not necessarily covering the same time span, it is shown how the spatial autocorrelation of the residual variance component, not explained by the covariates and corrected for demographic stochasticity, can be estimated using classical multinormal theory. 3. Some previous results on spatial scaling in continuous linearized models on log scale are extended to also provide the scaling for the residuals. This is shown to be close to the spatial scaling of the autocorrelation in the environmental noise and only weakly affected by migration. 4. The logistic model of local population dynamics with the NAO index as the only covariate is fitted to 22 populations of the Continental great cormorant Phalacrorax carbo sinensis . The spatial scale of the environmental noise is estimated to be about 155 km. The NAO index alone accounts for about 10% of the total environmental variance and nearly all of the regional environmental variance (long-distance environmental autocorrelation).

Ecology, 2009

We examine how ocean climate variability influences the reproductive phenology and demography of the seabird Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) across ;2500 km of its breeding range in the oceanographically dynamic California Current System along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we determine the extent to which ocean climate conditions and Cassin's Auklet timing of breeding and breeding success covary across populations in British Columbia, central California, and northern Mexico over six years (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and test whether auklet timing of breeding and breeding success are similarly related to local and large-scale ocean climate indices across populations. Local ocean foraging environments ranged from seasonally variable, high-productivity environments in the north to aseasonal, low-productivity environments to the south, but covaried similarly due to the synchronizing effects of large-scale climate processes. Auklet timing of breeding in the southern population did not covary with populations to the north and was not significantly related to local oceanographic conditions, in contrast to northern populations, where timing of breeding appears to be influenced by oceanographic cues that signal peaks in prey availability. Annual breeding success covaried similarly across populations and was consistently related to local ocean climate conditions across this system. Overall, local ocean climate indices, particularly sea surface height, better explained timing of breeding and breeding success than a large-scale climate index by better representing heterogeneity in physical processes important to auklets and their prey. The significant, consistent relationships we detected between Cassin's Auklet breeding success and ocean climate conditions across widely spaced populations indicate that Cassin's Auklets are susceptible to climate change across the California Current System, especially by the strengthening of climate processes that synchronize oceanographic conditions. Auklet populations in the northern and central regions of this ecosystem may be more sensitive to changes in the timing and variability of ocean climate conditions since they appear to time breeding to take advantage of seasonal productivity peaks.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010

Previsions of a warmer ocean as a consequence of climatic change point to a 2-68C temperature rise during this century in surface oceanic waters. Heterotrophic bacteria occupy the central position of the marine microbial food web, and their metabolic activity and interactions with other compartments within the web are regulated by temperature. In particular, key ecosystem processes like bacterial production (BP), respiration (BR), growth efficiency and bacterial -grazer trophic interactions are likely to change in a warmer ocean. Different approaches can be used to predict these changes. Here we combine evidence of the effects of temperature on these processes and interactions coming from laboratory experiments, space-for-time substitutions, long-term data from microbial observatories and theoretical predictions. Some of the evidence we gathered shows opposite trends to warming depending on the spatio-temporal scale of observation, and the complexity of the system under study. In particular, we show that warming (i) increases BR, (ii) increases bacterial losses to their grazers, and thus bacterial -grazer biomass flux within the microbial food web, (iii) increases BP if enough resources are available (as labile organic matter derived from phytoplankton excretion or lysis), and (iv) increases bacterial losses to grazing at lower rates than BP, and hence decreasing the proportion of production removed by grazers. As a consequence, bacterial abundance would also increase and reinforce the already dominant role of microbes in the carbon cycle of a warmer ocean.

Folia Geobotanica, 2010

We determined the climate-sensitive zones along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain range forest, the Bavarian Forest National Park in south-eastern Germany, and studied which vascular plant species are likely to respond to climate change. Plants were recorded on 273 plots along four straight transects. The composition of the plant species and their environmental correlates were detected using unconstrained correspondence analysis (DCA) with post-hoc correlation of axes against site variables. We tested the effect of site variables on species composition using maximally selected rank statistics, which allow the simultaneous identification of a threshold and assessment of its significance. Species turnover within the vascular plant community along the altitudinal gradient was assessed using the same method on the basis of the DCA sample scores. Using geostatistical models of local temperature and Bayesian methods with binomial errors that account for spatial structure, we tested the influence of temperature on selected single vascular plant species and assessed the suitability of the species as climate change indicators. Temperature was the most important factor explaining the variability in vascular plant community composition, which changed discretely along the altitudinal gradient, with a climate-sensitive zone found between 1,100 and 1,200 m a.s.l. The distribution of ten species with their lower or upper altitudinal limit in this zone was significantly driven by temperature. To track vegetation responses to climate change effectively, we suggest a three-level monitoring program, flexible with regard to the volume of required sampling effort.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2005

Capital breeding is a resource use tactic common among polygynous mammals, such as many ungulates. Even though large, prime-aged males stop eating during the rutting season, younger individuals often do not and may adopt alternative mating tactics that are less strenuous. The pattern of reproductive effort is therefore probably very variable among age classes, but has rarely been quantified in male mammals. 2. Based on data of body weight of 9949 male moose ( Alces alces L.) aged up to 21 years from seven populations in Norway, we tested hypotheses regarding the pattern of reproductive effort (weight loss during rut) in this capital breeder, and how this may be affected by factors such as age, population sex ratio and density. 3. Reproductive effort increased with age, even after prime-age was reached around the age of 6 years. This provides the first evidence consistent with the terminal investment hypothesis in male mammals. For the very oldest males (> 12 years) data were limited, but the tendency was that effort stabilized or even decreased slightly. Effort did not depend on the population sex ratio or density for adult males. 4. Yearling males also lost some weight during the rutting season, but this was not related to population sex ratio. Decreasing trends in yearling body weight as seen in many strongly harvested moose populations, therefore are due probably to other causes than earlier onset of rutting. Further, effort in yearlings decreased with increasing density. 5. Despite the lack of a correlation between effort and population sex ratio, a significantly faster ageing after prime-age was observed with an increasingly female-biased population sex ratio. This is consistent with the hypothesis that strongly skewed sex ratios may affect the ageing process. 6. Most ungulate populations in Europe and North America are heavily harvested or otherwise managed extensively, harvest being typically male-biased to varying degrees. The resulting skews in sex ratio provide manipulations that give unique opportunities to study life-history variation, in particular for large mammals that are otherwise difficult to manipulate. These opportunities are currently not fully utilized.

Regional Environmental Change, 2013

The Senegal sole, Solea senegalensis, is a species of flatfish that has several distinct cohorts of 0-group juveniles which use estuarine nurseries in summer and winter. The early cohort is more abundant and grows faster than the late cohort that stays in the nurseries during winter; however, climate warming may have an impact on the dynamics of this species' juveniles. This study aimed to compare mortality, metabolic response and growth of S. senegalensis juveniles at different temperatures, reflecting present-day temperature (winter-12°C; summer-24°C) and future temperature (plus 3°C) conditions, in estuarine nurseries in the southern European population. Mortality was low at 12°C, being only 10 %, increasing to 30 % at 15°C, 40 % at 24°C and at 27°C it hit 70 %. Metabolic rate increased steadily with increasing temperatures, yet it increased steeply from 24 to 27°C. Thermal sensitivity was high for the temperature interval between 24 and 27°C. Growth was very slow at 12°C, at a rate of 0.03 mm day -1 , increasing to 0.22 mm day -1 at 15°C, and to 0.60 mm day -1 , at 24°C. However, at 27°C growth rapidly declined to 0.12 mm day -1 . Warming will be beneficial for the late cohort, resulting in a major increase in growth. However, the early cohort will not benefit from warming, due to high mortality and arrested growth, which clearly indicates that this species is under severe thermal stress at 27°C. Thus, here we show, for the first time, that climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology, namely in species with several cohorts over the course of the year. Phenotypic and/or genotypic plasticity may limit the impacts of climate change.

Biological Reviews, 2011

The initial response of individuals to human-induced environmental change is often behavioural. This can improve the performance of individuals under sudden, large-scale perturbations and maintain viable populations. The response can also give additional time for genetic changes to arise and, hence, facilitate adaptation to new conditions. On the other hand, maladaptive responses, which reduce individual fitness, may occur when individuals encounter conditions that the population has not experienced during its evolutionary history, which can decrease population viability. A growing number of studies find human disturbances to induce behavioural responses, both directly and by altering factors that influence fitness. Common causes of behavioural responses are changes in the transmission of information, the concentration of endocrine disrupters, the availability of resources, the possibility of dispersal, and the abundance of interacting species. Frequent responses are alterations in habitat choice, movements, foraging, social behaviour and reproductive behaviour. Behavioural responses depend on the genetically determined reaction norm of the individuals, which evolves over generations. Populations first respond with individual behavioural plasticity, whereafter changes may arise through innovations and the social transmission of behavioural patterns within and across generations, and, finally, by evolution of the behavioural response over generations. Only a restricted number of species show behavioural adaptations that make them thrive in severely disturbed environments. Hence, rapid human-induced disturbances often decrease the diversity of native species, while facilitating the spread of invasive species with highly plastic behaviours. Consequently, behavioural responses to human-induced environmental change can have profound effects on the distribution, adaptation, speciation and extinction of populations and, hence, on biodiversity. A better understanding of the mechanisms of behavioural responses and their causes and consequences could improve our ability to predict the effects of human-induced environmental change on individual species and on biodiversity.

Studies on Neotropical Fauna and Environment, 2012

We describe changes in abundance of two rodent species over a 12-year period and assess the relationship between population abundance, climate, and agricultural practices in southern Córdoba Province, Argentina. We estimated abundance from trapping edges of agricultural areas, railway rights of way, and roadsides. Variables considered were: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall, and cultivated areas of different crops. Species abundances varied over time; those of Akodon dolores declined, whereas those of A. azarae increased. Climatic and environmental changes may have had differential influences on species abundances. Autumn abundance of A. dolores was positively related to spring rainfall and area of harvested sorghum, and negatively related to NDVI. Akodon azarae abundance was negatively correlated with winter minimum temperature, spring rainfall, and sorghum harvested area, but positively associated with NDVI. On the other hand, both species were negatively correlated with each other. We suggest that environmental conditions may have changed the competition outcome for Akodon spp., and thus, had direct, differential effect on species abundances.

Scientific reports, 2017

Sexual segregation in foraging occurs in many animal species, resulting in the partitioning of resources and reduction of competition between males and females, yet the patterns and drivers of such segregation are still poorly understood. We studied the foraging movements (GPS-tracking), habitat use (habitat modelling) and trophic ecology (stable isotope analysis) of female and male Cory&#39;s shearwaters Calonectris borealis during the mid chick-rearing period of six consecutive breeding seasons (2010-2015). We found a clear sexual segregation in foraging in years of greater environmental stochasticity, likely years of lower food availability. When food became scarce, females undertook much longer foraging trips, exploited more homogeneous water masses, had a larger isotopic niche, fed on lower trophic level prey and exhibited a lower body condition, when compared to males. Sexual competition for trophic resources may be stronger when environmental conditions are poor. A greater fo...

Brazilian Journal of Oceanography, 2015

Diversity and Distributions

Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of population cycling and spatial synchronization. Location Forest in the US Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Methods We tested hypotheses linking variation in vital rates of Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus), a declining species that displays decadal population cycles, to temperature and precipitation anomalies and land use intensity, using rate estimates from multiple locations in eastern North America. We used climatedemographic linkages to simulate spatially explicit population dynamics from 1982 to 2069, evaluated predictions against monitoring data and assessed predicted population dynamics under future climate projections. Results Nest success and winter survival were linked to temperature and precipitation anomalies, and demographic models explained important spatiotemporal characteristics of cycling and synchrony in monitoring data. The climate-driven vital rates were necessary for cycling and synchrony in models, even though the four included climate variables were not individually periodic. Cycling and synchrony were stronger at more northerly latitudes, but this transition occurred abruptly, reflecting regional variation in winter conditions. Forecasts suggested climate-driven cycling through mid-century, followed by desynchronization and dampening. Main conclusions Climate variability can drive spatio-temporal variation in demographic rates, and population cycling can result from these relationships. Pathways linking climate to broad-scale population dynamics involve responses of vital rates to several climate variables at different times of year and may be more complex than direct responses to known modes of climate variability. The wide-ranging impact of climate change on the demographics of northerly adapted species has the potential to degrade patterns of population synchrony and cycling.

Oikos, 2013

We use data on feral goats on the Isle of Rum to explore the hypothesis that time is a major constraint on the latitudinal and altitudinal distribution of this species. Daylength and temperature were the principal factors influencing the main time budget elements (feeding, moving and resting). Because the goats do not feed at night due to low ambient temperatures, they faced particular problems during winter when daylengths were at their shortest. A mean monthly windchill-adjusted temperature of 5°C appeared to be a critical threshold in terms of the animals' ability to survive on Rum. We used these data to model the animals' time budgets at different latitudes and altitudes. We show that winter daylength would be shorter than the required feeding time north of about 60° latitude, with a narrowing altitudinal cone approaching sea level at this latitude. Biogeographic evidence confirms that feral goat populations are not self-sustaining north of this latitude.

2015

Background: Relatively few conservation-based studies have explicitly quantified the extent to which population dynamics are consistent with local impacts. The Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a large sexually dimorphic tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush habitat of western North America. The impacts of oil and gas development at individual leks has been well-documented. However, no previous studies have quantified the population-level response. Methods: Hierarchical models were used to estimate the effects of well pad density and climatic variation on individual lek counts and Greater Sage-Grouse management units over 32 years. The lek counts were analysed using General Linear Mixed Models while the management units were analysed using Gompertz State-Space Population Models. The models were fitted in a Maximum Likelihood framework. An information-theoretic approach was adopted. Results: Oil and gas was only an important predictor at individual leks. In cont...

PeerJ

Background Spatial scale is important when studying ecological processes. The Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a large sexually dimorphic tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush biome of western North America. The impacts of oil and gas (OAG) development at individual leks has been well-documented. However, no previous studies have quantified the population-level response. Methods Hierarchical models were used to estimate the effects of the areal disturbance due to well pads as well as climatic variation on individual lek counts and Greater sage-grouse populations (management units) over 32 years. The lek counts were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models while the management units were analyzed using Gompertz population dynamic models. The models were fitted using frequentist and Bayesian methods. An information-theoretic approach was used to identify the most important spatial scale and time lags. The relative importance of OAG and climate at the local...

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2012

Different species respond differently to environmental change so that species interactions cannot be predicted from single-species performance curves. We tested the hypothesis that interspecific difference in the capacity for thermal acclimation modulates predator -prey interactions. Acclimation of locomotor performance in a predator (Australian bass, Macquaria novemaculeata) was qualitatively different to that of its prey (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki ). Warm (258C) acclimated bass made more attacks than cold (158C) acclimated fish regardless of acute test temperatures (10 -308C), and greater frequency of attacks was associated with increased prey capture success. However, the number of attacks declined at the highest test temperature (308C). Interestingly, escape speeds of mosquitofish during predation trials were greater than burst speeds measured in a swimming arena, whereas attack speeds of bass were lower than burst speeds. As a result, escape speeds of mosquitofish were greater at warm temperatures (258C and 308C) than attack speeds of bass. The decline in the number of attacks and the increase in escape speed of prey means that predation pressure decreases at high temperatures. We show that differential thermal responses affect species interactions even at temperatures that are within thermal tolerance ranges. This thermal sensitivity of predator -prey interactions can be a mechanism by which global warming affects ecological communities.

Oecologia

The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (...

Ecology, 2018

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major dri...

Ecography, 2011

The role of climate variability in determining the fluctuations of fish populations had been a traditional problem in ecology. In this paper, we studied the role of the Southern Oscillation Index (SO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the population dynamics of the western stock of the skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis. Our analysis was based in three sequential steeps: a diagnostic approach to deduce what kind of population dynamic model should be more appropriate, the modelling of capture per unit of effort data through a logistic model, and the use of population dynamic theory for analyzing the effect of exogenous perturbations. We find that direct and one-year lagged negative PDO effects and one-year lagged negative SO effects were needed to explain annual tuna fluctuations. Models including the combined effects of these climatic indexes explain 80% of the variance in tuna fluctuations. In addition, these models provided very accurate predictions of independent skipjack tuna observed dynamics. This result is encouraging because the inherent variability in CPUE data and the not well determined link between climate and ecological processes. Finally, this study demonstrates that simple models can offer reasonable explanations and accurate predictions of tuna fluctuations, provided they are based on a sound theoretical framework.

Population Ecology, 2013

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Population Ecology, 2013

In applied population dynamics the choice of stochastic per capita growth function has implications for population viability analyses, management recommendations, and pest control. This model choice is often based on statistical criteria, mathematical tractability or personal preferences, and general ecological guidelines are either too vague or entirely missing. To identify such guidelines, it is important to understand how exogenous and endogenous factors interact at the individual level and re-emerge at the aggregated population level. We therefore study different types of resource competition (contest vs. scramble competition) and different types of exogenous fluctuations (food and weather fluctuations) at the individual level in a simple individual-based simulation model. We statistically fit the resulting time series to find out (1) which functional form of the growth function ('hyperbolic' or 'exponential') better describes contest and scramble competition and (2) whether the pattern of population fluctuations resulting from the simulations can be assigned to vertical, lateral or nonlinear perturbations in the stochastic growth function (a classification scheme suggested by Royama 1992, Analytical Population Dynamics, Chapman and Hall, London). We found that the same type of competition can result in 'hyperbolic' or 'exponential' functional forms, depending on the type of exogenous fluctuations. So it is the interplay between exogenous variability and endogenous resource competition that affects model performance. In contrast to the widespread assumption of vertical (additive) perturbations, our findings highlight the importance of (non-additive) lateral and nonlinear perturbations and their combinations with vertical perturbations. The choice of the stochastic growth function should therefore consider not only statistical criteria but also ecological guidelines. We derive such ecological guidelines from our analysis.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2002

Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the eld of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non-reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear rst-order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular uctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi-arid region of central Chile. We found that factors in uencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodent's population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an indepth understanding of the community-weather system.

PLOS ONE, 2016

Background The global spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the main hypothesis behind tuberculosis (TB) positive trends in the last decades, according to modeling studies and World Health Organization Reports (WHO). On one hand, TB (WHO) reports do not explicitly consider a modeling approach, but cover country and global TB trends. On the other hand, modeling studies usually do not cover the scale of WHO reports, because of the amount of parameters estimated to describe TB natural history. Here we combined these two principal sources of TB studies covering TB High Burden Countries (HBCs) dynamics. Our main goals were: (i) to detect the endogenous component of TB dynamics since 1974 for TB HBCs; and (ii) to explore the HIV exogenous effects on TB models`parameters. Methods and Findings We explored the relationship between the TB per capita population rate of change (R I) and the infectious class size following an endogenous/exogenous framework. R I can be affected by intra-population processes (i.e. competition, predation) and exogenous variables like HIV. We found that TB dynamics had always a strong endogenous component, represented by a negative correlation between TB population size and R I , which was captured by the discrete logistic model. Moreover, we explored the HIV exogenous effects on TB models`parameters. We found that overall the TB+HIV logistic model was more parsimonious than TB model alone, principally in the African region. Our results showed that HIV affected principally TB carrying capacity, as expected by the known HIV effects on TB natural-history. We also tested if DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment Short-Course Strategy), poverty levels and BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin) coverage explained the models´residuals variances, but they did not. Conclusions Since 1974, TB dynamics were categorized in distinct chronological domains, with different dynamics but nearly the same underlying mechanism: a negative relationship between R I

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2017

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species&#39; range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy period...

Frontiers in Marine Science

Uncertainty regarding the movement and population exchange of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) from the two primary spawning areas (Gulf of Mexico, Mediterranean Sea) is increasingly implicated as a major impediment for the conservation of this species. Here, two mixture methods were applied to natural chemical markers (δ 18 O and δ 13 C) in otoliths (ear stones) to comprehensively investigate the nature and degree of transoceanic movement and mixing of eastern and western populations in several areas of the North Atlantic Ocean that potentially represent mixing hotspots. Areas investigated occurred on both sides of the 45 • W management boundary as well as waters off the coast of Africa (Morocco, Canary Islands) where both populations are known to occur. Projections of population composition (i.e., natal or nursery origin) from a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) classification method with different probability thresholds were generally in agreement with maximum likelihood estimates from the commonly used mixed-population program HISEA; however, predicted contributions for the less abundant population were occasionally higher for MLR estimates. Both MLR and HISEA clearly showed that mixing of Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Central North Atlantic Ocean was highly variable from year to year with expatriates of eastern or western origin commonly crossing into the other management area. Pronounced transoceanic movement and mixing of western migrants was also present off the coast of Africa, with the occurrence of western migrants in the Canary Islands and Morocco ranging from zero to the majority of the individuals assayed for the years examined. Results indicate highly variable rates of movement and population exchange for Atlantic bluefin tuna, highlighting the need for temporally resolved estimates of natal origin in mixing hotspots to improve population models used to evaluate the status of this threatened species.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008

We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community ''collapses'' occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until Ϸ8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.

The Science of Nature, 2019

Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and ash-throated flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk for the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.

PloS one, 2015

Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variabilit...

Oikos, 2013

Intraspecific variation in body size is common in animals and plants. Body size affects trophic interactions like foraging ability and vulnerability to predation, which in turn affect individual fitness as well as population stability and extinction risk. Experimental and theoretical work has shown that the size distribution of individuals within cohorts is strongly influenced by intraspecific competition for resources, often leading to skewed frequency distributions. However, little is known about the effects of environmental factors such as climate and eutrophication on the cohort size-structure of natural populations. We use a long-term time series of scientific monitoring of a freshwater fish (European perch Perca fluviatilis) to investigate the effects of density dependence, predation, nutrient availability, climate and the timing of spawning on the cohort size distributions. We find that the mean length of the fish is best predicted by the extrinsic factors phosphorus concentration and summer temperature, and the densities of the different age-classes, whereas the skewness of the length distribution is best predicted by phosphorus concentration, summer temperature, abundance of small fish, and the timing of spawning. Higher nutrient levels, temperatures and densities of small fish increase food availability and thus reduce competition, which is reflected in increased mean length and decreased skewness. The timing of spawning affects skewness presumably through changes in the initial size variation of the cohort and the length of the first growth season. Our results indicate that higher temperatures increase the mean length and decrease skewness due to the concurrent eutrophication of the lake. The study thereby highlights the potential impact of human-induced environmental change on the size structure of fish populations. More studies are needed to understand better the complex mechanisms through which these factors alter the intensity of intraspecific competition in fish communities.

Scientific Reports, 2016

The reproductive success of southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) depends on body condition and, therefore, on foraging success. This, in turn, might be affected by climatically driven change in the abundance of the species main prey, krill (Euphausia superba), on the feeding grounds. Annual data on southern right whale number of calves were obtained from aerial surveys carried out between 1997 and 2013 in southern Brazil, where the species concentrate during their breeding season. The number of calves recorded each year varied from 7 to 43 (x = 21.11 ± 11.88). Using cross-correlation analysis we examined the response of the species to climate anomalies and krill densities. Significant correlations were found with krill densities (r = 0.69, p = 0.002, lag 0 years), Oceanic Niño Index (r = −0.65, p = 0.03, lag 6 years), Antarctic Oscillation (r = 0.76, p = 0.01, lag 7 years) and Antarctic sea ice area (r = −0.68, p = 0.002, lag 0 years). Our results suggest that global climate indices influence southern right whale breeding success in southern Brazil by determining variation in food (krill) availability for the species. Therefore, increased frequency of years with reduced krill abundance, due to global warming, is likely to reduce the current rate of recovery of southern right whales from historical overexploitation. Climate variability has strong effects on marine ecosystems, from scales that impact individuals to those that impact the entire food web 1,2. For individuals and populations, climate effects may be direct, through physiology, involving metabolic and reproductive processes, or indirect, through the ecosystem. The latter includes the interactions between prey, predators and competitors through the impact on food availability and species distribution 3. The biological effects of El Niño have been extensively studied in marine ecosystems 4-6. El Niño is defined by the appearance and persistence, for more than 5 months, of anomalously warm water in the coastal and equatorial ocean off western South America 7. This phenomenon has been shown to have a great potential to alter marine ecosystems through marked increase in ocean temperature 3. Observations of anomalies that occurred during El Niño events have demonstrated the global connection of weather system as well as showing how anomalies can be transmitted from the Pacific to other ocean basins through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Such teleconnections were found between Pacific El Niño regions and South Georgia, in the Southern Ocean, in relation to sea surface temperature (SST). The strongest correlation observed was between the signal in the west Pacific (El Niño 4 region) and the SST around South Georgia with a delay of approximately three years 8. The manifestation of these physical effects can subsequently be seen in biological effects, often illustrated by the response of upper-trophic level predators 9,10. The Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key component of the food web in the Southern Ocean given its large biomass 11 , which has strong association with physical processes including the extent and duration of sea-ice 12. In waters around South Georgia, krill abundance declined when SST was higher than normal, in

Journal of Marine Biology

The relationships between the abundance of demersal resources, environmental variables, and fishing pressure in the north-western Ionian Sea in the last two decades were evaluated. Data on the density collected during seventeen trawl surveys carried out from 1985 to 2005 were used. The following species were considered:Aristaeomorpha foliacea, Nephrops norvegicus,andParapenaeus longirostrisfor crustaceans;Merluccius merluccius, Phycis blennoides,andMullus barbatusfor teleost fish. The recruitment index was also considered forN. norvegicus, P. longirostris, M. merlucciusandMullus barbatus. Six candidate models were evaluated for each density and recruitment data set either combining fishing effort with global (NAO) and regional (SST and precipitation) climatic indices, or models separately involving fishing effort, NAO, or regional climatic indices as the only predictive variable. Model selection was carried out using an information-theoretical approach that applies Akaike’s Informat...

Aim of our study is to establish models for predicting the number of migratory wild birds based on the meteorological data. From 136 species of wild birds, which have been observed at Futatsudate in Miyazaki, Japan, from 2008 to 2016, we selected the potential high-risk species, which can introduce highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Miyazaki; we defined them as "risky birds". We then performed regression analysis to model the relationship between the number of risky birds and meteorological data. We selected 10 wild bird species as risky birds: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Northern pintail (Anas acuta), Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), Eurasian teal (Anas crecca), Common pochard (Aythya ferina), Eurasian coot (Fulica atra), Northern shoveler (Anas clypeata), Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula), and Herring gull (Larus argentatus). We succeeded in identifying five meteorological factors associated with their migration: station pressure, mean value of global solar radiation, minimum of daily maximum temperature, days with thundering, and days with daily hours of daylight under 0.1 h. We could establish some models for predicting the number of risky birds based only on the published meteorological data, without manual counting. Dynamics of migratory wild birds has relevance to the risk of HPAI outbreak, so our data could contribute to save the cost and time in strengthening preventive measures against the epidemics.

Climatic Change, 2016

Large-scale data from digital infrastructure, like mobile phone networks, provides rich information on the behavior of millions of people in areas affected by climate stress. Using anonymized data on mobility and calling behavior from 5.1 million Grameenphone users in Barisal Division and Chittagong District, Bangladesh, we investigate the effect of Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Barisal and Chittagong in May 2013. We characterize spatiotemporal patterns and anomalies in calling frequency, mobile recharges, and population movements before, during and after the cyclone. While it was originally anticipated that the analysis might

PLOS ONE

Climate change's effect on sea surface temperature (SST) at the regional scale vary due to driving forces that include potential changes in ocean circulation and internal climate variability, ice cover, thermal stability, and ocean mixing layer depth. For a better understanding of future effects, it is important to analyze historical changes in SST at regional scales and test prediction techniques. In this study, the variation in SST across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (PG&GO) during the past four decades was analyzed and predicted to the end of 21 st century using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) model. As input, daily optimum interpolation SST anomaly (DOISSTA) data, available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, were used. Descriptive analyses and POD results demonstrated a gradually increasing trend in DOISSTA in the PG&GO over the past four decades. The spatial distribution of DOISSTA indicated: (1) that shallow parts of the Persian Gulf have experienced minimum and maximum values of DOISSTA and (2) high variability in DOISSTA in shallow parts of the Persian Gulf, including some parts of southern and northwestern coasts. Prediction of future SST using the POD model revealed the highest warming during summer in the entire PG&GO by 2100 and the lowest warming during fall and winter in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, respectively. The model indicated that monthly SST in the Persian Gulf may increase by up to 4.3˚C in August by the turn of the century. Similarly, mean annual changes in SST across the PG&GO may increase by about 2.2˚C by 2100.

Global Change Biology

It is well known that human activities, such as harvesting, have had major direct effects on marine ecosystems. However, it is far less acknowledged that human activities in the surroundings might have important effects on marine systems. There is growing evidence suggesting that major reorganization (i.e., a regime shift) is a common feature in the temporal evolution of a marine system. Here we show, and quantify, the interaction of human activities (nutrient upload) with a favourable climate (run-off) and its contribution to the eutrophication of the Black Sea in the 1980s. Based on virtual analysis of the bottom-up (eutrophication) vs. top-down (trophic cascades) effects, we found that an earlier onset of eutrophication could have counteracted the restructuring of the trophic regulation at the base of the food web that resulted from the depletion of top predators in the 1970s. These enhanced bottom-up effects would, however, not propagate upwards in the food web beyond the zoopla...

Plant Signaling & Behavior, 2009

Our study organism, Phragmites australis (common reed), is a unique invader in that both native and introduced lineages are found coexisting in North America. This allows one to make direct assessments of physiological differences between these different subspecies and examine how this relates to invasiveness. Recent efforts to understand plant invasive behavior show that some invasive plants secrete a phytotoxin to ward-off encroachment by neighboring plants (allelopathy) and thus provide the invaders with a competitive edge in a given habitat. Here we show that a varying climatic factor like ultraviolet (UV) light leads to photo-degradation of secreted phytotoxin (gallic acid) in P. australis rhizosphere inducing higher mortality of susceptible seedlings. The photo-degraded product of gallic acid (hereafter GA), identified as mesoxalic acid (hereafter MOA), triggered a similar cell death cascade in susceptible seedlings as observed previously with GA. Further, we detected the biological concentrations of MOA in the natural stands of exotic and native P. australis. Our studies also show that the UV degradation of GA is facilitated at an alkaline pH, suggesting that the natural habitat of P. australis may facilitate the photo-degradation of GA. The study highlights the persistence of the photo-degraded phytotoxin in the P. australis's rhizosphere and its inhibitory effects against the native plants.

Italian Journal of Zoology, 2010

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Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

The main objective of the article was to determine the impact of macro-scale circulation types on the beginning and end of the growing season in Poland in 1966-2015. The data concerning average daily air temperature for 30 stations from the period of 1966-2015 were used. Data were obtained from the databases of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute. The period with the average daily air temperature ≥ 5 °C was considered to be the growing season. To determine the dates of the beginning and end of the growing season, the Gumiński method was applied. The time and extent of changes in parameters of the growing season were significantly dependent on the variability of the macro-scale circulation types (AO, NAO, EA, SCAND, EA/WR) affecting the atmosphere circulation over Poland. The Atlantic Oscillation had the greatest impact on the beginning of the growing season. In turn, the end of the growing season was most strongly regulated by the East Atlantic circulation.

Population Ecology

Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, 2008

The aim of this study was to assess if sea surface temperature does affect cetacean distribution in the western Ligurian Sea. Relationships with temperature were investigated for: striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus). Remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data were studied. A series of 20 monthly images (i.e. June to September monthly images from 1996 to 2000) was considered. Concurrently, distribution data collected during shipboard summer surveys, and covering an area of about 20,000 km2 in the western Ligurian Sea, were analysed. The relationship between the three species presence and SST was investigated by using a grid of 3 × 3 nautical mile cell units. For every cell the SST mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variance and the deviation from the monthly average were calculated. Finally, binary logistic regression functions allowed to assess significant…

Determining the life history consequences for fishes living in extreme and variable environments will be vital in predicting the likely impacts of ongoing climate change on reef fish demography. Here, we compare size-at-age and maximum body size of two common reef fish species (Lutjanus ehrenbergii and Pomacanthus maculosus) between the environmentally extreme Arabian/Persian Gulf (‘Arabian Gulf’) and adjacent comparably benign Oman Sea. Additionally, we use otolith increment width profiles to investigate the influence of temperature, salinity and productivity on the individual growth rates. Individuals of both species showed smaller size-at-age and lower maximum size in the Arabian Gulf compared to conspecifics in the less extreme and less variable environment of the Oman Sea, suggesting a life-history trade-off between size and metabolic demands. Salinity was the best environmental predictor of interannual growth across species and regions, with low growth corresponding to more sa...

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2018

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-associated zoonosis caused by hantavirus. The HFRS was initially detected in northeast China in 1931, and since 1955 it has been detected in many regions of the country. Global climate dynamics influences HFRS spread in a complex nonlinear way. The quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of the &quot;HFRS infections-global climate dynamics&quot; association at a large geographical scale and during a long time period is still lacking. This work is the first study of a recently completed dataset of monthly HFRS cases in Eastern China during the period 2005-2016. A methodological synthesis that involves a time-frequency technique, a composite space-time model, hotspot analysis, and machine learning is implemented in the study of (a) the association between HFRS incidence spread and climate dynamics and (b) the geographic factors impacting this association over Eastern China during the period 2005-2016. The results...

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Temperature is among the most ubiquitous determinants of organism growth, survival, and reproduction. Accurate recordings and predictions of how the temperatures of plants and animals vary in time and space are therefore critical to forecasting the likely impacts of global climate change. Intertidal zones have long served as a model ecosystem for examining the role of environmental stress on patterns of species distributions, and are emerging as models for understanding the ecological impacts of climate change. Intertidal environments are among the most physically demanding habitats on the planet, and excursions in body temperature of ectotherms can exceed 25 • C over the course of a few hours. It is now well-known that the body temperatures of intertidal organisms can deviate significantly from the temperature of the surrounding air and substrate due to the influence of solar radiation, and that their size, color, morphology, and material properties markedly influence their temperatures. While many intertidal organisms are slow moving or almost entirely sessile, for others, behavior can play a significant role in driving vulnerability to temperature extremes. We explore datalogging methods used in intertidal zones and discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each. We show how measurements made in situ reveal patterns of thermal stress that otherwise would be undetectable using more remotely-sensed data. Additionally, we explore the idea that the relevant "grain size" of the physical environment, and thus the spatial scale that must be measured, is a function of (1) the size of the organism relative to local refugia; (2) an organism's ability to sense and to some degree predict near-term environmental conditions; and (3) an animal's movement speed and directionality toward refugia. Similarly, relevant temporal scales depend on the size, behavior, and physiological response of the organism. While miniaturization of dataloggers has significantly improved, several significant limitations still exist, many of which relate to difficulties in recording behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions. We discuss recent innovations in monitoring and modeling intertidal temperatures, and the important role that they have played in bridging ecological and physiological studies of ongoing impacts of climate change.

PLoS ONE, 2010

Behavioral and/or developmental plasticity is crucial for resisting the impacts of environmental stressors. We investigated the plasticity of adult foraging behavior and chick development in an offshore foraging seabird, the black noddy (Anous minutus), during two breeding seasons. The first season had anomalously high sea-surface temperatures and 'low' prey availability, while the second was a season of below average sea-surface temperatures and 'normal' food availability. During the second season, supplementary feeding of chicks was used to manipulate offspring nutritional status in order to mimic conditions of high prey availability. When sea-surface temperatures were hotter than average, provisioning rates were significantly and negatively impacted at the day-today scale. Adults fed chicks during this low-food season smaller meals but at the same rate as chicks in the unfed treatment the following season. Supplementary feeding of chicks during the second season also resulted in delivery of smaller meals by adults, but did not influence feeding rate. Chick begging and parental responses to cessation of food supplementation suggested smaller meals fed to artificially supplemented chicks resulted from a decrease in chick demands associated with satiation, rather than adult behavioral responses to chick condition. During periods of low prey abundance, chicks maintained structural growth while sacrificing body condition and were unable to take advantage of periods of high prey abundance by increasing growth rates. These results suggest that this species expresses limited plasticity in provisioning behavior and offspring development. Consequently, responses to future changes in sea-surface temperature and other environmental variation may be limited.

Ecology and Evolution

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

PLOS ONE, 2016

To improve fishery management, there is an increasing need to understand the long-term consequences of natural and anthropogenic climate variability for ecological systems. New England's iconic cod populations have been in decline for several decades and have recently reached unprecedented lows. We find that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is a consequence of three results: i) a 1-unit increase in the NAO winter index is associated with a 17% decrease in the spring biomass of age-1 cod the following year; ii) this NAO-driven decrease persists as the affected cohort matures; iii) fishing practices appear to exacerbate NAO's direct biological effect such that, since 1913, a 1-unit increase in the NAO index lowers subsequent cod catch for up to 19 years. The Georges Bank cod stock displays similar patterns. Because we statistically detect a delay between the NAO and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our findings imply that observed current NAO conditions can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fish populations strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.

Birds

The spatial variation in the strength of climate change may lead to different impacts on migratory birds using different breeding areas across a region. We used a long-term data series of White Stork ring recoveries to study the temporal and spatial variation of annual survival rates of White Stork across western Europe between 1960 and 2009 in relation to climatic and environmental conditions at their breeding and wintering grounds. White Stork survival was estimated from the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model using a cohort-based analysis. Our results support that climate change has caused a gradual decline in the survival performance of western European White Storks during the study period. Both the shape and the strength of the relationship between climate warming and survival differ among different life-stages of the individual development, with juvenile White Storks more strongly affected. The decline in survival is particularly marked for those storks breeding in southern Europe...

Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, 2012

It is well recognized that the greenhouse gas such as Chlorofluoro Carbon (CFC) is responsible for the increase in the average global temperature. The presence of CFC is responsible for the depletion of ozone concentration in the atmosphere due to which the heat accompanied with the sun rays are less absorbed causing increase in the atmospheric temperature of the Earth. The increase in temperature level may directly or indirectly affect the dynamics of interacting species systems. Therefore, in this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and analysed to asses the effects of increasing temperature on the survival or extinction of two competing populations.

PloS one, 2016

Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable s...

Fisheries Oceanography, 2011

Climate strongly influences the population dynamics of many species, but intrinsic and extrinsic factors such as density-dependence and anthropogenic impacts can confound the effects of climate. Further, the temporal scale of climate response is determined by the unique characteristics of a species' life history, and determining the most appropriate climate indicator at the proper scale is a challenge faced by population ecologists. We focused on how climate influences juvenile survival of bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis), a threatened Pacific rockfish, because its abundance has declined >90% in the last 25 years, ostensibly as the result of overfishing. Bocaccio recruitment is episodic, with strong recruitment events apparently related to climate conditions. We developed a sequence of models that related log of juvenile survival to the predictor variables population density and climate, as measured by the Northern Oscillation Index. A model that contained only population density as a predictor variable explained only 1.4% of the variance, while a model that included only climate indices explained 52%. Including density additively with climate did not improve model fit. However, a model that included an interaction between density and climate explained more than 68% of the variance. In addition, models that represented climate as monthly indices fit the juvenile survival data much better than those that averaged climate over 2-or 3-month periods. Our results suggest that climate affects bocaccio recruitment as a series of pulses corresponding to particular life-history events, with population density mediating the magnitude of the climate effect during the settlement stage.

Water

In the endorheic basins of the Altiplano, water is crucial for sustaining unique ecological habitats. Here, the wetlands act as highly localized evaporative environments, and little is known about the processes that control evaporation. Understanding evaporation in the Altiplano is challenging because these environments are immersed in a complex topography surrounded by desert and are affected by atmospheric circulations at various spatial scales. Also, these environments may be subject to evaporation enhancement events as the result of dry air advection. To better characterize evaporation processes in the Altiplano, the novel Evaporation caused by Dry Air Transport over the Atacama Desert (E-DATA) field campaign was designed and tested at the Salar del Huasco, Chile. The E-DATA combines surface and airborne measurements to understand the evaporation dynamics over heterogeneous surfaces, with the main emphasis on the open water evaporation. The weather and research forecasting model...

Marine Biology, 2013

Shifts in the diet of top predators can be linked to changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we tested relationships between environmental variation and seasonal changes in diet of a top predator, the grey-headed albatross Thalassarche chrysostoma, breeding at Bird Island, South Georgia in an austral summer of 1999/2000. Oceanographic conditions in that year around South Georgia were abnormal (i.e. anomalously high sea surface temperature to a relative 19-year long-term mean). The diet of grey-headed albatrosses showed high seasonal variation, shifting from cephalopods (42.9 % by mass) in late February to Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (58.3 %) in late April, and grey-headed albatrosses breeding performance was low (16.8 %). This study shows these albatrosses did not manage to find sufficient alternative prey and highlight the risk to top predators if there is an increase in the frequency or severity of food shortages in Antarctic waters.

PloS one, 2016

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurre...

Marine Ecology - Biotic and Abiotic Interactions

Fisheries production especially from marine is important for the socioeconomic development of Nigerians and its contribution to the nation's economic growth through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nigeria is blessed with enough marine fisheries resources that could enhance increased fish production. Yet, fish supply from domestic production is far below the fish demand of her citizens. This chapter is therefore focused on marine fisheries in Nigeria. We adopted a desk review approach. This chapter is divided into different sections such as the Nigerian fisheries sector, marine fisheries resources in Nigeria, status of marine fisheries production in Nigeria, marine fisheries regulations, and constraints to optimal marine fisheries production in Nigeria. We concluded that the contribution of aquaculture to marine fisheries production has been low, compared to the marine capture fisheries production. Also, we noted that despite the availability of regulations, noncompliance by fisher folks has not helped to optimize marine fisheries production. We therefore recommended that the culture of marine fishes should be intensified. Marine waters should also be protected against destruction and pollution as a result of human activities. Available marine fisheries regulations should be enforced and violators of the regulations should be punished as stipulated in the regulations.

Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2007

Aim Animal monitoring programmes have allowed analyses of population trends, most of which now comment on the possible effect of global climate change. However, the relationship between the interspecific variation in population trends and species traits, such as habitat preferences, niche breadth or distribution patterns, has received little attention, in spite of its usefulness in the construction of ecological generalizations. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether there are characteristics shared among species with upwards or downwards trends, and (2) to assess whether population changes agree with what could be expected under global warming (a decrease in species typical of cooler environments). Location The Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula (c. 500,000 km 2) in the southwestern part of the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We modelled recent breeding population changes (1996-2004), in areas without apparent land use changes, for 57 common passerine birds with speciesspecific ecological and distributional patterns as explanatory variables. Results One-half of these species have shown a generalized pattern towards the increase of their populations, while only one-tenth showed a significant decrease. One half (54%) of the interspecific variability in yearly population trends is explained considering species-specific traits. Species showing more marked increases preferred wooded habitats, were habitat generalists and occupied warmer and wetter areas, while moderate decreases were found for open country habitats in drier areas. Main conclusions The coherent pattern in population trends we found disagrees with the proposed detrimental effect of global warming on bird populations of western Europe, which is expected to be more intense in bird species inhabiting cooler areas and habitats. Such a pattern suggests that factors other than the increase in temperature may be brought to discussions on global change as relevant components to explain recent changes in biodiversity.

Global Change Biology, 2008

In this article, we show by mesocosm experiments that winter and spring warming will lead to substantial changes in the spring bloom of phytoplankton. The timing of the spring bloom shows only little response to warming as such, while light appears to play a more important role in its initiation. The daily light dose needed for the start of the phytoplankton spring bloom in our experiments agrees well with a recently published critical light intensity found in a field survey of the North Atlantic (around 1.3 mol photons m À2 day À1). Experimental temperature elevation had a strong effect on phytoplankton peak biomass (decreasing with temperature), mean cell size (decreasing with temperature) and on the share of microplankton diatoms (decreasing with temperature). All these changes will lead to poorer feeding conditions for copepod zooplankton and, thus, to a less efficient energy transfer from primary to fish production under a warmer climate.

Arctic Science

Extreme climate can negatively affect survival through increased physiological demands or by reducing prey availability. This can have significant population-level consequences for organisms with low reproductive rates, such as seabirds. As an Arctic-breeding trans-equatorial migrant, Sabine’s gull (Xema sabini) is exposed to a profound variety of climate regimes during the year. Therefore, its annual survival may be affected by broad-scale teleconnection patterns that influence regional climate variability. We used Program MARK to estimate apparent survival and resighting probabilities from 2007 to 2013 for adult Sabine’s gulls breeding at a High Arctic colony. We then combined capture–mark–recapture data for the High Arctic colony with those previously published from a Low Arctic colony (1998–2002) to examine influences of climate variability on survival. Mean ± standard error apparent survival estimated for the High Arctic colony was 0.90 ± 0.03, similar to that previously report...

Tropical Conservation Science

The desiccation of wetlands is a process associated with the dynamics of urban growth and expansion of the agricultural frontier. This article aims to evaluate the influence of the desiccation of the Ciénaga de Aguablanca on regional climate. The periodization of the desiccation and urban growth of Cali was reconstructed under the theoretical contributions of environmental history. As complementary sources, maps, aerial photographs, and diagrams of the city were obtained from 1944 to 2020, with which the hydromorphological changes in the Ciénaga de Aguablanca were represented. Data from six hydroclimatological stations were statistically analyzed with Pettitt’s test, trend analysis, and Rclimdex. The results indicate a reduction of 99% in the area of the wetlands, from 19.2 km2 in 1944 to 0.2 km2 by 2020. Additionally, a break point was observed in 1970, preceded by the process of wetland desiccation and waterproofing of the eastern part of Cali, along with significant differences b...

2019

Saint Kilda is a tiny archipelago that lies off the west coast of mainland Scotland, in the North Atlantic Ocean. Formed from an ancient volcano associated with the opening of the North Atlantic in the Early Tertiary, it has jagged landscape with towering seacliffs, the highest on Europe. The combination of oceanic influences and local geology has created a marine environment of unparalleled richness. With nearly one million seabirds present at the breeding season, Saint Kilda supports the largest seabird colony in the northeast Atlantic. Overlaying the spectacular natural landscape, there is a rich cultural landscape that bears testimony to millennia of human occupation in extreme conditions. Age-old traditions and land uses shaped the landscape, in such a way that the site is also a cultural World Heritage site.

Global Change Biology, 2006

Detailed studies of organisms' life cycles are important for understanding population response to climate change. However, in general one cannot make strong inference about the overall population response from such studies, unless the full annual cycle of the species in question is covered. Here, we present a theoretical framework for the understanding of population response to climate change. Owing to the combined effects of demography, intraspecific feedback, and a possible use of environmental cues, environmentally induced changes in survival and/or reproduction do not necessarily lead to a straightforward change in population size. This framework can guide our thinking about how abiotic conditions work their way to the population level. More specifically, it can help us to identify mechanisms that need to be examined when predicting population change in response to expected climate change.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2008

1. Rainfall is the prime climatic factor underpinning the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, but no study has analysed its influence on the abundance of these ungulates at monthly to multiannual time scales. 2. We report relationships between rainfall and changes in age-and sex-structured abundances of seven ungulate species monitored monthly for 15 years using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. 3. Abundance showed strong and curvilinear relationships with current and cumulative rainfall, with older topi, Damaliscus korrigum (Ogilby); warthog, Phacochoerus aethiopicus (Pallas); waterbuck, Kobus ellipsyprimnus (Ogilby); and impala, Aepyceros melampus (Lichtenstein) responding to longer lags than younger animals, portraying carryover effects of prior habitat conditions. 4. The abundances of newborn calves were best correlated with monthly rainfall averaged over the preceding 5-6 months for topi, waterbuck, warthog, and 2 months for the migratory zebra Equus burchelli (Gray), but with seasonal rainfall averaged over 2-5 years for giraffe, Giraffa camelopardalis (L.); impala; and kongoni, Alcelaphus busephalus (Pallas). The cumulative late wet-season rainfall was the best predictor of abundance for quarter-to full-grown animals for most species. Monthly rainfall exerted both negative and positive effects on the abundances of zebra, impala and waterbuck. Ignoring age, both sexes responded similarly to rainfall. 5. Births were strongly seasonal only for warthog and topi, but peaked between August and December for most species. Hence abundance was strongly seasonal for young topi and warthog and the migratory zebra. Pronounced seasonality in births for warthog and topi obliterated otherwise strong relationships between abundance and rainfall when both month and rainfall were included in the same model. Aggregated density produced relationships with rainfall similar to those for fully grown animals, emphasizing the necessity of demographic monitoring to reliably reveal rainfall influences on ungulate abundance in the Mara. 6. Strong relationships between abundance and rainfall suggest that rainfall underpins the dynamics of African savanna ungulates, and that changes in rainfall due to global warming may markedly alter the abundance and diversity of these mammals. Ungulates respond to rainfall fluctuations through movements, reproduction or survival, and the responses appear independent of breeding phenology and synchrony, dietary guild, or degree of water dependence. Newborns and adults have contrasting responses to rainfall. Males and females respond similarly to rainfall when age is ignored.

Scientific Reports

Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Because cobras often live near humans settlements, they are responsible for a large part of snakebite incidents and as such pose a challenge for public health systems. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is therefore important for both biological conservation and public health management. Here, we mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Our analyses reveal that cobras that are adapted to dry climates and inhabit islands have narrow climatic niches, while those of mainland species with larger geographic ranges are much wider. We also found a higher degree of fragmentation of future cobra distributions; within the next 50 years, Asian cobras...

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2015

The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N strategies to mitigate the effects of ENSO on yields of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.; WW) system. After thorough calibration and evaluation, Decision Support Systems for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT, version 4.5) model suite was adapted. Seasonal analysis was used to compare the variability in simulated leached-N, N uptake, and WW yields under long-term historical real-weather conditions. The site X climate interactions and impacts of weather factors on WW yields were assessed across 60 growing seasons in three phases of ENSO: El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), and neutral (NT). Based on RA, the simulated yields were lower during LN than EN (11 %) and NT (12 %) on coastal sandy-loam soils and higher during LN than EN (13 %) and NT (8 %) on heavy silt loam soils at valley. N strategy with basal of 22 kg N ha −1 +a split of 112 kg N ha −1 at Feekes (F) 4 stage of WW was adapted for maximum yield and minimum N leaching during LN at valley and NT at coastal sites. However, basal of 22 kg N ha −1 +two equal splits of 56 kg N ha −1 at both F4 and F6 was found as the most adaptable N strategy during both EN and NT phases at valley and EN and LN at coastal sites.

Scientific Reports, 2017

The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and populationspecific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation 'rules of thumb' for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges. The response of biodiversity to climate change is often examined at macroecological and temporal scales, treating demographic mechanisms implicitly (e.g., 1 , but see 2 ). Demographic rates describe changes in abundance and distribution for populations, but reflect

Symbiosis, 2020

Many corals depend upon the highly specialised and intricate relationship they form with Symbiodiniaceae algal symbionts. Porites lutea is a massive reef-building coral found throughout Southeast Asia that hosts these endosymbionts obligately. Yet despite the prevalence and importance of P. lutea as one of the most dominant corals here, its associated Symbiodiniaceae communities have not been precisely characterised. In this study, we used high-throughput DNA amplicon sequencing of the nuclear internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) to characterise the diversity, community structure and biogeographic distribution of Symbiodiniaceae in P. lutea throughout Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia. Consistent with previous studies, we found that Cladocopium was the most dominant genus among all samples, and Cladocopium C15 was the most dominant type (or subclade) with 100% occurrence in all samples from every study site. Results also revealed numerous Symbiodiniaceae types associated with P. lut...

Quaternary Research, 2007

A high-resolution, well-dated dinoflagellate cyst record from a lagoon of the southeastern Swedish Baltic Sea reveals climate and hydrological changes during the Holocene. Marine dinoflagellate cysts occurred initially at about 8600 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of the Littorina transgression in the southeastern Swedish lowland associated with global sea level rise, and thus the opening of the Danish straits. Both the species diversity and the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts continued to increase by 7000 cal yr BP and then decreased progressively. This pattern reveals the first-order change in local sea level as a function of ice-volume-equivalent sea level rise versus isostatic land uplift. Superimposed upon this local sea level trend, well-defined fluctuations of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts occurred on quasi-1000- and 500-yr frequency bands particularly between 7500 and 4000 cal yr BP, when the connection between the Baltic basin and the...

Biotropica, 2013

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.

PLoS ONE, 2013

Climate influences the dynamics of natural populations by direct effects over habitat quality but also modulating the phenotypic responses of organisms' life-history traits. These responses may be different in males and females, particularly in dimorphic species, due to sex-specific requirements or constraints. Here, in a coastal seabird, the European shag (Phalacrocorax aristotelis), we studied the influence of climate (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; Sea Surface Temperature, SST) on two sex-related population parameters: fledgling sex ratio and sex-specific dispersal. We found that fledgling sex ratio was female skewed in NAO-positive years and male skewed in NAO-negative years. Accordingly, females dispersed a longer distance in NAO-positive years when females were overproduced, and on the contrary, males dispersed more in NAO-negative years. Overall, our findings provide rare evidence on vertebrates with genetic sex determination that climate conditions may govern population dynamics by affecting sex-specific density and dispersal.

Ecological Entomology, 2005

1. The thermal biology of the meadow grasshopper, Chorthippus parallelus, a common, habitat generalist acridid species found in the U.K., was characterised and the influence of thermoregulatory behaviour for resistance against a temperate (Beauveria bassiana) and tropical (Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum) fungal pathogen was determined. 2. Chorthippus parallelus was found to be an active behavioural thermoregulator, with a preferred temperature range of 32-35 C. 3. Both pathogens proved lethal to fifth instar and adult grasshoppers. No evidence of behavioural fever in response to infection by either pathogen was found, but normal thermoregulation was found to reduce virulence and spore production of B. bassiana. Normal thermoregulation did not appear to affect M. anisopliae var. acridum. 4. These results suggest that the effects of temperature on host resistance depend on the thermal sensitivity of the pathogen and, in this case, derive from direct effects of temperature on pathogen growth rather than indirect effects mediated by host immune response. 5. The implications for possible risks of exotic pathogens and influence of climate change are discussed.

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2020

In Amazonia, commercially important fish species-such as Semaprochilodus insignisare highly dependent on the hydrological regime, that is, the flood pulse. As waters begin to rise, this species migrates from nutrient-poor rivers to nutrient-rich rivers via their associated floodplains, using such habitats as spawning and nursery grounds. However, strong droughts or floods may alter such dynamics. Therefore, this study was aimed at answering the following questions: (1) Is there any relationship between the flood amplitude and the growth of S. insignis caught in the lower Solimões River? (2) Is there any relationship between the yearly maximum river level and the fishing mortality of S. insignis caught in the upper Amazon River? Growth parameters were estimated using the ELEFAN routine. Explanatory variables hypothesised to be relevant predictors of populational parameters were tested using multiple linear models. A 2-year-lagged effect of flood amplitude resulted in a decline in the growth of S. insignis. In contrast, in relation to years with the highest maximum water levels, an immediate and 1-year-lagged reduction in fishing mortality was observed. Therefore, despite the negative impact of years with high flood amplitude on the growth of this species, it is apparent that a sequence of years with La Niña influence helped in the recovery of S. insignis.

Journal of Tropical Ecology, 2010

Rainfall seasonality can strongly influence biotic interactions by affecting host plant quality, and thus potentially regulating herbivore exposure to natural enemies. Plant defences are predicted to increase from dry to wet forests, rendering wet-forest caterpillars more vulnerable to parasitoids due to the slow-growth-high-mortality hypothesis. We collected and reared caterpillars from the understorey and trail edges of a wet forest and a seasonally dry forest to determine whether wet-forest caterpillars suffered a higher prevalence of parasitism and were less abundant than dry-forest caterpillars. In the two forests, caterpillar abundances (on average 8 h −1) and prevalence of parasitism (18%) were very similar regardless of feeding niche for both parasitism (27% versus 29% in shelter builders, and 16% versus 11% in external feeders) and caterpillar abundances (shelter builders: 1.42 versus 2.39, and external feeders: 8.27 versus 5.49 caterpillars h −1) in the dry and wet forests, respectively. A similar comparative analysis conducted in the canopy and understorey of the dry forest revealed a higher prevalence of parasitism in the canopy (43%) despite caterpillar densities similar to those in the understorey. Overall, shelter builders suffered higher parasitism than external feeders (32% versus 14.9%), and were attacked primarily by flies, whereas external feeders were more vulnerable to attack by parasitoid wasps.

Ecology Letters, 2003

The maintenance of species diversity is influenced by processes originating both within and outside the ecological community of concern. Along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast, the number of fish species displays variability around a rather stable long-time average. Using a mechanistically based first-order autoregressive model with environmental forcing for the species number, we demonstrate for this system the presence of richnessdependent regulation of species diversity. We explicitly model the niche space as a carrying capacity of species diversity and the intrinsic community feedback as a richnessdependent regulation. Wind stress, temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are used as environmental variables. This general and flexible model successfully captures the community dynamics of fish in the coastal areas of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast and thereby demonstrates the validity of developing general models of biodiversity patterns.

Frontiers in Marine Science, 2020

Ecosystems, 2019

In this study, we identify the main modes of variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and their relationships with precipitation and temperature variations across northern Patagonia (36°-45°S). In this approach, we combined a recently developed high-resolution gridded dataset (20 9 20 km) for temperature and precipitation with a re-scaled NDVI grid to spatially match the climate database. Climate-vegetation relationships were analyzed taking into account a wide range of temporal variations (intra-to inter-annual) of both climate and NDVI. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis performed on NDVI delimits four regions that are spatially consistent with previous vegetation classifications for northern Patagonia. In addition, these coherent NDVI regions show similarities with the spatial precipitation patterns and the temporal evolution of precipitation over the common period 2001-2010. Both NDVI and precipitation show evident annual cycles over the Mediterranean climatic region in northwestern Patagonia. These annual cycles decrease in amplitude toward the eastern arid rangelands, and to the south on the evergreen allyear-round rainforests. Significant positive relationships between monthly precipitation and NDVI are recorded in the dry temperate rangelands in northeastern Patagonia. In contrast, direct associations between monthly NDVI and precipitation were absent in the Central Patagonia cold grasslands, where seasonal interactions between precipitation, temperature and NDVI appear to be more relevant. Relationships between NDVI and temperature are generally weaker east of the Andes, but significantly positive in late winter/spring over the temperate forests in western North Patagonia. Our results indicate that climate-NDVI relationships in northern Patagonia are biome specifics with the occurrence of temporal lags and precipitation-temperature interactions in the responses of vegetation to climate at some ecosystems.

PLOS ONE, 2017

Understanding the influence of environmental factors on population dynamics is fundamental to many areas in biology. Survival is a key factor of population biology, as it is thought to be the predominant driver of growth in long-lived passerines, which can be influenced by both biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. We used mark-recapture methods and generalized linear mixed models to test the influence of density and climatic variation, measured at a regional and local scale (Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] and rainfall, respectively), on seasonal variation in survival rates of an insular population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus), during a 15-year study period, off the east coast of Australia. We found overall high survival rates for adults and juveniles (81% and 59%, respectively). Local scale climate (i.e. rainfall) and density were the principal environmental factors influencing their survival, both with a negative relationship. A significant interactive effect of density and rainfall influenced survival as they both increased. However, survival remained low when density was at it highest, independent of the amount of rainfall. Nestling survival was negatively influenced by rainfall and density, positively by SOI, and chicks that hatched later in the breeding season had higher survival rates. The regional scale climate variable (i.e. SOI) did not explain survival rates as strongly as rainfall in any age class. Our results contribute to the understanding of insular avian population dynamics and the differential effects of environmental factors across age classes. Climatic predictions expect El Niño events to increase, meaning dryer conditions in eastern Australia, potentially increasing Silvereye survival across age classes. However, the long-term effect of lower rainfall on food availability is unknown; consequently, the outcome of lower rainfall on Silvereye survival rates is uncertain.

Journal of Mammalogy, 2012

We related temporal variation in the environment to demographic parameters and body condition of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) in Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' geographic range. Ringed seals harvested by Inuit hunters for subsistence purposes in Arviat, Nunavut, Canada, from 1991 to 2006 were measured and sampled. Ringed seal ovulation rate did not change over time, but pregnancy rate and percent pups in the fall harvest increased in the 2000s, compared to the 1990s. Ringed seals grew faster and attained sexual maturity earlier in life, and the population age structure shifted to younger age classes in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. Ringed seal demographic parameters were characteristic of a population in decline in the 1990s and a growing population in the 2000s. A quadratic polynomial regression best described the relationship between percent pups in the harvest and snow depth, and between pup and adult female body condition index and date of spring breakup, suggesting that ringed seals have evolved to do best within a relatively limited range of environmental conditions. We propose that the decline of ringed seal reproductive parameters and pup survival in the 1990s could have been triggered by unusually cold winters and heavy ice conditions that prevailed in Hudson Bay in the early 1990s, through nutritional stress and increased predation pressure. The recovery in the 2000s may have been augmented by immigration of pups, juveniles, and young adult ringed seals into the study area. We discuss the possibility of a decadal-scale biological cycle that reflects fluctuations in climatic variables, and particularly in the sea ice regime.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021

Significance The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (&gt;40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations.

Nature Climate Change

Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity r...

Marine Biology, 2012

As always, we thank those who kept the Helgoland Roads Time series alive over the past 45 years. We acknowledge the exemplary service of the research vessel crews on the 'Aade' and 'Ellenbogen' for their unfailing provision of samples, even under the most adverse of weather conditions. We thank the data contributors for the gridded instrumental data sets. Karen Wiltshire thanks the Centre for Advanced Study for the time given to her at Norwegian Academy of Sciences enabling part of the analyses for this work, and Dag Hessen for inviting her. This study was in part funded by the Priority programmes AQUASHIFT and Interdynamics of the German Science Foundation (DFG) and is part of the Helmholtz PACES programme.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2004

1. Predictions about how species will respond to climate warming are based commonly on eco-physiological models or niche models. One critique of this practice is that it ignores interspecific interactions. 2. We examined how resource competition affects the responses of two ciliate species, Colpidium striatum Stein and Paramecium tetraurelia Sonneborn , to warming in laboratory microcosms. 3. We found that warming had a negative effect on Colpidium abundance and a negligible effect on Paramecium abundance in the absence of interspecific competition. When Colpidium and Paramecium competed, however, Paramecium coexisted with Colpidium at low and high temperatures, and was competitively excluded at intermediate temperatures. 4. Temperature-dependent strength of the interaction between Colpidium and Paramecium may explain the unexpected responses of Paramecium , which were inconsistent with its response to temperature in the absence of Colpidium. 5. Our results provide further support for the important role of species interactions in understanding how species respond to environmental warming, and suggest that the complex interplay between species interactions and climate may make it extremely difficult to predict accurately how species embedded in complex communities will respond to climate warming.

Oikos, 2018

nature species react to a variety of endogenous and exogenous ecological factors. Understanding the mechanisms by which these factors interact and drive population dynamics is a need for understanding and managing ecosystems. In this study we assess, using laboratory experiments, the effects that the combinations of two exogenous factors exert on the endogenous structure of the population dynamics of a size-structured population of Daphnia. One exogenous factor was size-selective predation, which was applied on experimental populations through simulating: 1) selective predation on small prey, 2) selective predation on large prey and 3) non-selective predation. The second exogenous factor was pesticide exposure, applied experimentally in a quasi-continuous regime. Our analysis combined theoretical models and statistical testing of experimental data for analyzing how the density dependence structure of the population dynamics was shifted by the different exogenous f

International Journal of Climatology, 2014

Tree rings and documentary evidence are the most important palaeoclimatic archives with annual resolution that continuously span several centuries. Despite this benefit, local to regional-scale temperature reconstructions and their spatial signatures tend to be irregularly distributed, and the appropriate extent of low-frequency variability captured in these proxy records remains uncertain. Here, the first summer temperature reconstruction from the Czech Sudetes Mountains that extends to 1700 AD was introduced. An ensemble reconstruction approach using 251 new high-elevation spruce ring width samples suggests particularly cold June-July temperatures at the beginning of the 18th century, in the 1740s and around 1820. Markedly warm conditions occurred in the 1790s and during the most recent decades. The reconstructed decadal summer temperature amplitude from 'Little Ice Age Cooling' to 'Recent Anthropogenic Warming' ranges from −3.5 ∘ C between 1700 and 1710 to 1.3 ∘ C in 1999-2009, with respect to the 1961-1990 mean climatology. Comparison of our new reconstruction with existing tree-ring chronologies from the Alps reveals a significant level of coherency that is much higher than the agreement with geographically closer documentary evidence from Central Europe. Our study confirms the importance of independent regional climate reconstructions, which capture the full range of past variability and also fill spatial gaps in large-scale networks.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017

Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate-animal-Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960-2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dyn...

The Journal of animal ecology, 2018

Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and c...

PLOS ONE, 2016

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multistage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until 10%,~16%, and~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers.

Ecological Applications, 2012

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the postcalving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.

The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Modelling incidence of sterility mosaic disease (SMD) on pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.] for four locations [S K Nagar (Gujarat), Gulbarga (Karnataka), Rahuri (Maharashtra) and Vamban (Tamil Nadu)] was carried out based on field data sets generated during six kharif seasons [2011-16]. Mean seasonal incidence amongst all locations was on the decline during recent periods (0.5-5.3%) over past decades (9.8-12.8%). Correlation analyses of SMD incidence with weather parameters lagged one and two weeks indicated spatial differences for the variables besides their significance. While Max T (ºC) lagged by one week alone was significantly positive with SMD at Gulbarga (KA), Vamban (TN) had negative significance of rainfall (mm/week) and rainy days. S K Nagar (GJ) and Rahuri (MH) had shown opposite effects of both morning and evening RH (%) of both one and two lagged weeks. Support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN) models and their combination with autoregressiv...

Ecology letters, 2017

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity intera...

Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 2016

This study evaluates interannual variations and trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum in Finland during 1961-2011, and their connections to well known atmospheric circulation patterns. Changes in summer (June-August) climate partially explain changes in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum over Finland, which naturally decreased from south to north. On a national scale, growing season warmed and became wetter during 1961-2011, as growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum significantly (p < 0.05) increased by 5.01 ± 3.17°C year-1 and 1.39 ± 0.91 mm year-1 , respectively. The East Atlantic pattern was the most influential atmospheric circulation pattern for variations in growing season daily temperature sum (rho = 0.40) across Finland and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern was most influential for growing season daily precipitation sum variability (rho =-0.54). There were significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum throughout Finland during 1961-2011. Increased growing season daily temperature sum was mainly observed in northern, central, western, eastern and coastal areas of southwestern Finland.

Fishes

The Shantou-Taiwan shoal fishing ground in southeastern China supports a significant population of pelagic fish, which play a key role in the marine ecosystem. An acoustic survey was carried out using a digital scientific echosounder in June 2019. In this paper, the spatial distribution of pelagic fish is analyzed based on acoustic data using geostatistical analysis tools. Meanwhile, the relationship between fish density from acoustic data and sea surface environment factors were evaluated by using generalized additive models (GAMs) based on the satellite-based oceanographic data of sea surface temperature, sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface height and sea surface wind. The results showed the following: (1) Fish density and acoustic biomass have strong spatial correlation; the optimal model for acoustic biomass is exponential and the optimal model for fish density is gaussian; based on optimal model, spatial interpolation analysis of fish density and acoustic bioma...

PLoS ONE, 2011

Despite the importance of early life stages in individuals' life history and population dynamics, very few studies have focused on the constraints to which these juvenile traits are subjected. Based on 10 years of automatic monitoring of over 2500 individuals, we present the first study on the effects of environmental conditions and individual pre-fledging traits on the post-fledging return of non-banded king penguins to their natal colony. Juvenile king penguins returned exclusively within one of the three austral summers following their departure. A key finding is that return rates (range 68-87%) were much higher than previously assumed for this species, importantly meaning that juvenile survival is very close to that of adults. Such high figures suggest little juvenile dispersal, and selection occurring mostly prior to fledging in king penguins. Pre-fledging conditions had a strong quadratic impact on juvenile return rates. As expected, cohorts reared under very unfavourable years (as inferred by the breeding success of the colony) exhibited low return rates but surprisingly, so did those fledged under very favourable conditions. Juvenile sojourns away from the colony were shorter under warm conditions and subsequent return rates higher, suggesting a positive effect of climate warming. The longer the postfledging trip (1, 2 or 3 years), the earlier in the summer birds returned to their natal colony and the longer they stayed before leaving for the winter journey. The presence of juveniles in the colony was more than twice the duration required for moulting purposes, yet none attempted breeding in the year of their first return. Juvenile presence in the colony may be important for acquiring knowledge on the social and physical colonial environment and may play an important part in the learning process of mating behaviour. Further studies are required to investigate its potential implications on other lifehistory traits such as recruitment age.

Scientific Reports, 2019

Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. our results showed greater species richness in the easterncentral portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and northeastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group. Climate change is a prevalent threat to global biodiversity 1,2. The potential changes in physiological and ecological processes promoted by climate change may affect the distribution and persistence of species in an environment 3,4. The complex relationship of this changing process with organisms has been addressed from various perspectives, with studies evaluating how climate changes affect the individual performance 5,6 , demographic dynamics 7,8 , species composition and species richness 9,10. Predicted outcomes include adaptation to novel conditions 11 , shift, expansion or retraction of ranges 10,12 , isolation to unaffected areas or climatic refuges 13-15 and extinction events 1 .

Global Change Biology, 2021

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

PLOS ONE, 2021

In the last decades, climate change has caused an increase in mean temperatures and a reduction in average rainfall in southern Europe, which is expected to reduce resource availability for herbivores. Resource availability can influence animals&#39; physical condition and population growth. However, much less is known on its effects on reproductive performance and sexual selection. In this study, we assessed the impact of three environmental factors related to climate change (rainfall, temperature and vegetation index) on Iberian red deer Cervus elaphus hispanicus reproductive timing and sexual behaviour, and their effects on the opportunity for sexual selection in the population. We measured rutting phenology as rut peak date, the intensity of male rutting activity as roaring rate, and the opportunity for sexual selection from the distribution of females among harem holding males in Doñana Biological Reserve (Southwest Spain), from data of daily observations collected during the r...

Geodesy and Cartography, 2013

Climatic variability affects both seasonal phenological cycles of vegetation and monthly distribution of rainfall in the south western Nigeria. Variations in vegetation biophysical parameters have been known to be a good indicator of climate variability; hence they are used as key inputs into climate change models. However, understanding the response of vegetation to the influence of climate at both temporal and spatial scales have been a major challenge. This is because most climatic data available are derived from ground-based instruments, which are mainly point measurements and are characterized by sparse network of meteorological stations that lacks the spatial coverage required for climate change investigation. Satellite remote sensing instruments can provide a suitable alternative of time-reliable datasets in a more consistent manner at both temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this study is to test the suitability of one year time series datasets obtained from satellite se...

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências

Studies of the relationships between the temporal variation of biological phenomena and environmental factors are essential to understanding the dynamics of communities. Phenology is a structuring element and, together with voltinism, is related to timing of reproductive activities. The aim of this study is to ascertain the structure and composition of the Chironomid assemblage and its emergence patterns in relation to the environmental variables through the use of the Chironomid pupal exuviae technique using the Neotropical streams as a model. The streams presented similar species compositions. The highest density of pupal exuviae was recorded during spring and the greatest richness in late summer and early autumn. Chironominae presented greater prevalence throughout the year with oscillations for Orthocladiinae and Tanypodinae. Chironominae and Tanypodinae presented emergence peaks in spring-summer and Orthocladiinae in autumn-winter. Rainfall, photoperiod and water and air temperatures structured the Chironomid assemblage, influencing emergence. Univoltine, bivoltine and multivoltine species were recorded. The species presented interspecific synchronization in emergence peaks at different times of the year.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2020

PLoS pathogens, 2017

Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology a...

Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 2011

Migration is a complex trait although little is known about genetic correlations between traits involved in such migration syndromes. To assess the migratory responses to climate change, we need information on genetic constraints on evolutionary potential of arrival dates in migratory birds. Using two long-term data sets on barn swallows Hirundo rustica (from Spain and Denmark), we show for the first time in wild populations that spring arrival dates are phenotypically and genetically correlated with morphological and life history traits. In the Danish population, length of outermost tail feathers and wing length were negatively genetically correlated with arrival date. In the Spanish population, we found a negative genetic correlation between arrival date and time elapsed between arrival date and laying date, constraining response to selection that favours both early arrival and shorter delays. This results in a decreased rate of adaptation, not because of constraints on arrival date, but constraints on delay before breeding, that is, a trait that can be equally important in the context of climate change.

Frontiers in Physiology, 2020

Reptiles are critically affected by temperature throughout their lifespan, but especially so during early development. Temperature-induced changes in phenotype are a specific example of a broader phenomenon called phenotypic plasticity in which a single individual is able to develop different phenotypes when exposed to different environments. With climate change occurring at an unprecedented rate, it is important to study temperature effects on reptiles. For example, the potential impact of global warming is especially pronounced in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) because temperature has a direct effect on a key phenotypic (sex) and demographic (population sex ratios) trait. Reptiles with TSD also serve as models for studying temperature effects on the development of other traits that display continuous variation. Temperature directly influences metabolic and developmental rate of embryos and can have permanent effects on phenotype that last beyond the embryonic period. For instance, incubation temperature programs post-hatching hormone production and growth physiology, which can profoundly influence fitness. Here, we review current knowledge of temperature effects on phenotypic and developmental plasticity in reptiles. First, we examine the direct effect of temperature on biophysical processes, the concept of thermal performance curves, and the process of thermal acclimation. After discussing these reversible temperature effects, we focus the bulk of the review on developmental programming of phenotype by temperature during embryogenesis (i.e., permanent developmental effects). We focus on oviparous species because eggs are especially susceptible to changes in ambient temperature. We then discuss recent work probing the role of epigenetic mechanisms in mediating temperature effects on phenotype. Based on phenotypic effects of temperature, we return to the potential impact of global warming on reptiles. Finally, we highlight key areas for future research, including the identification of temperature sensors and assessment of genetic variation for thermosensitivity.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2018

Managing fisheries through rapid environmental change requires diverse approaches for identifying and adapting to novel ecological conditions. For the Wisconsin Ceded Territory, we calculated 473 adult walleye (Sander vitreus) production (P), biomass (B), and P/B estimates for 1990–2012. Frequency distributions for production statistics were right-skewed, indicating the fishery is generally dominated by low production populations. Mean P, B, and P/B were significantly elevated in natural recruitment (NR) lakes compared with combination (NR + stocking) and stocked-only lakes. Furthermore, combination populations had significantly higher production compared with stocked-only lakes. In NR lakes, walleye productivity changed little over time; however, the proportion of NR populations has declined over time. In combination and stocked-only populations, there were significant temporal declines in P, B, and P/B, and the proportion of these lakes has increased through time. This study revea...

Ecology, 2006

Interest in facilitative predator-plant interactions has focused upon aboveground systems. Underground physical conditions are distinctive, however, and we provide evidence that bush lupine, Lupinus arboreus, facilitates the survival of the predatory nematode Heterorhabditis marelatus. Because H. marelatus is prone to desiccation and lupines maintain a zone of moist soil around their taproots even during dry periods, we hypothesized that dryseason nematode survival under lupines might be higher than in the surrounding grasslands. We performed field surveys and measured nematode survival in lupine and grassland rhizospheres under wet-and dry-season conditions. Nematodes survived the crucial summer period better under lupines than in grasslands; however, this advantage disappeared in wet, winter soils. Modeling the probability of nematode population extinction showed that, while even large nematode cohorts were likely to go extinct in grasslands, even small cohorts in lupine rhizospheres were likely to survive until the arrival of the next prey generation. Because this nematode predator has a strong top-down effect on lupine survival via its effect on rootboring larvae of the ghost moth Hepialus californicus, this facilitative interaction may enable a belowground trophic cascade. Similar cases of predator facilitation in seasonally stressful environments are probably common in nature.

Agronomy

Pest rodents significantly reduce crop yields globally each year, necessitating an efficient rodent management program. In small rice-producing nations like Malaysia, these rodents might lead to food insecurity, thus a science-based pest rodent management strategy is crucial. We attempted to identify the key habitat structure that affects rodent pest populations by investigating the relationships of rodent pest populations with farming practices, site-level habitat, and landscape characteristics. We found that rodent abundance in the rice fields was positively correlated with bund height and width. In addition, rice growing stages and planting seasons affected rodent abundance. However, rodent abundance was negatively related to the distance from active burrows to residential areas. As an alternative to chemical control, we suggest that trapping exercises with a covered trap should be conducted around active burrows located nearby residential areas, with high and wide bunds during e...

Ecology and Evolution

Weather conditions are important factors in the dynamics of insect populations. Among the various weather factors known to affect insects, temperature conditions are of particular importance in temperate regions. Insects are ectotherms, and cool weather limits population growth. Temperature directly affects many aspects of insect life such as growth rates, survival probability, reproductive rates, and flight propensity (Andrewartha & Birch, 1954; Bale et al., 2002). In addition to these direct effects,

Water

During the last decades, a decrease in the nutrients and an increase in marine temperature on the surface of the Varna Bay of the Black Sea have been registered. The main aim of this study was to establish the influence of some environmental factors (SST, TP, DIN) on the structure of the phytoplankton and to define what part of these dynamics results from the changes in temperature. Bivariate correlation and Nonlinear regression analyses were used to establish the connection between factors of the environment and the quality parameters of different size and taxonomic groups of phytoplankton. The rising SST proved to statistically significantly influence the decrease in the abundance of nano-phytoplankton (50.9%), the abundance and biomass of micro-phytoplankton (53%; 33.2%), the Bacillariophyceae (49.5%; 35.6%), and the biomass of the species of group “Other” (51.4%). The decreasing TP has a significant influence on the decrease in the abundance and biomass of the diatoms and the bi...

Ecology Letters, 2011

Extreme climatic events represent disturbances that change the availability of resources. We studied their effects on annual plant assemblages in a semi-arid ecosystem in north-central Chile. We analysed 130 years of precipitation data using generalised extreme-value distribution to determine extreme events, and multivariate techniques to analyse 20 years of plant cover data of 34 native and 11 exotic species. Extreme drought resets the dynamics of the system and renders it susceptible to invasion. On the other hand, by favouring native annuals, moderately wet events change species composition and allow the community to be resilient to extreme drought. The probability of extreme drought has doubled over the last 50 years. Therefore, investigations on the interaction of climate change and biological invasions are relevant to determine the potential for future effects on the dynamics of semi-arid annual plant communities.

PLOS ONE, 2018

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

European Journal of Wildlife Research

The population dynamics of shrews (Soricidae) are not well known even though they form an important part of forest ecosystems and represent suitable bioindicators of ecosystem quality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the population dynamics of shrews in mountain and upland forest clearings in four study areas within the Czech Republic and to reveal how climatic factors influenced fluctuations in their abundance for a decade (2007–2017). In total, we trapped 7,538 individuals of 18 small mammal species. From 760 individuals of seven shrew species, the common shrew (Sorex araneus) was significantly dominated in all study areas. We did not observe any significant, regular multi-annual cycles of the common shrew. However, a cross-correlation in density fluctuation of this species was detected in all mountain areas indicating the influence of environmental factors acting on a larger geographical scale. The autumn abundance of shrews was dependent on the subset of climatic variables...

Ecological Monographs, 2016

Environmental conditions experienced during early growth and development markedly shape phenotypic traits. Consequently, individuals of the same cohort may show similar life-history tactics throughout life. Conditions experienced later in life, however, could fine-tune these initial differences, either increasing (cumulative effect) or decreasing (compensatory effect) the magnitude of cohort variation with increasing age. Our novel comparative analysis that quantifies cohort variation in individual body size trajectories shows that initial cohort variation Ecological Monographs

Background Timing of reproductive events can be crucial for a species’ population growth and stability. Accurate detection of reproductive phenology presents a challenge to scientists studying wild species, including moose (Alces alces). Currently, there are several established methods for monitoring reproductive activity and events in domestic ruminants, including the use of biologging devices. The main objective of this study was to determine whether female moose display a distinct thermal and activity pattern associated with luteal activity during the estrous cycle, which could be used to determine the onset of their breeding season. We deployed biologging devices and collected fecal samples from 12 captive female moose on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, USA to explore variation in vaginal temperature and collar activity and the relationship between these variables and fecal progestagen concentrations. Fecal samples were collected from mid-August to mid-October and analyzed using ra...

Quaternary Research, 2021

The late Quaternary in North America was marked by highly variable climate and considerable biodiversity loss including a megafaunal extinction event at the terminal Pleistocene. Here, we focus on changes in body size and diet in Neotoma (woodrats) in response to these ecological perturbations using the fossil record from the Edwards Plateau (Texas) across the past 20,000 years. Body mass was estimated using measurements of fossil teeth and diet was quantified using stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen from fossil bone collagen. Prior to ca. 7,000 cal yr BP, maximum mass was positively correlated to precipitation and negatively correlated to temperature. Independently, mass was negatively correlated to community composition, becoming more similar to modern over time. Neotoma diet in the Pleistocene was primarily sourced from C 3 plants, but became progressively more reliant on C 4 (and potentially CAM) plants through the Holocene. Decreasing population mass and higher C 4 /CAM consumption was associated digitalcommons.unl.edu

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2022

Animals actively select the most suitable habitat in terms of fitness, much of which is mediated by temperature. We reconstructed population abundance, oxygen isotope and temperature chronologies for the Icelandic and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) populations to determine if their temperature selectivity over the last 100 years was driven by rising water temperatures and (or) changes in abundance. Individual annual growth increments from immature and mature life history stages of cod collected in southern Iceland and the Lofoten area (Norway) were micromilled from adult otoliths and then assayed for stable oxygen isotopes (δ18Ootolith). Linear mixed effect models were used to identify and quantify the density-dependent temperature exposure of both cod populations. The results indicated that Icelandic cod migrated into warmer waters with increasing abundance (p &lt; 0.05), whereas NEA cod moved into colder waters (p &lt; 0.001). Our results suggest that thermal prefer...

Climatic Change, 2020

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the predominant interannual pattern of climate variability in the world and may become extreme approximately once every 20 years. Climate-forced interannual variability in fecundity rates of long-lived species are well-studied, but the effect of extreme events is less clear. Here, we analyzed the effect of the extreme 2015-16 El Niño event on three long-lived sea turtle species in a region highly influenced by ENSO. The effect of this extreme event varied considerably among species. While reproductive success dramatically declined in leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), the reduction was only marginal in green turtles (Chelonia mydas). Nevertheless, the number of nesting green turtles decreased following the extreme El Niño event, likely due to decreased ocean productivity. We used global climate models to project an increase in the decadal occurrence of extreme events from 0.7 events (beginning of twentieth century) to~2.9 events per decade (end of twentyfirst century). This resulted in a projected decline in the reproductive success of leatherback turtles (~19%), a milder decline in olive ridley turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) (7 %), and no decline in green turtles (~1%). Extreme El Niño events can have a strong detrimental effect on East Pacific leatherback turtles, a population that is already critically endangered due to other anthropogenic impacts. Our results highlight the importance of conducting species-specific and site-specific analyses of climatic impacts on sea turtles.

Ecosphere, 2020

Increasing impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbances on natural ecosystems are leading to population declines or extinctions of many species worldwide. In Australia, recent climatic change has caused population declines in some native fauna. The projected increase in mean annual temperature by up to 4°C by the end of the 21st century is expected to exacerbate these trends. The greater glider (Petauroides volans), Australia’s largest gliding marsupial, is widely distributed along the eastern coast, but has recently experienced drastic declines in population numbers. Its association with hollow‐bearing trees, used for nesting, has made it an important species for the conservation of old‐growth forest ecosystems. Fires and timber harvesting have been identified as threats to the species. Greater gliders have disappeared however from areas that have experienced neither raising questions about the role of other factors in their decline. A unique physiology and strict Euca...

PLOS ONE, 2016

Changes in the ecology of macrofungi are poorly understood, not only because much of their life cycle is hidden belowground, but also because experiments often miss real-world complexity and most fruitbody inventories are limited in space and time. The National Poisons Information Centre 'Tox Info Suisse' provides countrywide 24hours/7days medical advice in case of poisonings since 1966. Here, we introduce a total of 12,126 mushroomrelated phone calls that were received by Tox Info Suisse between 1966 and 2014. This indirect source of mycological information is dominated by the families of Boletaceae (11%), Agaricaceae (10%) and Amanitaceae (8%), which account for~30% of all cases. Mushroom fruiting patterns revealed by the Poisons Centre inventory statistically resemble changes in fungal phenology, productivity and diversity as reflected by the Swiss National Data Centre 'SwissFungi'. Although the newly developed Tox Info Suisse dataset provides an innovative basis for timely environmental research, caution is advised when interpreting some of the observed long-term changes and autumnal extremes. Uncertainty of the new record relates to possible data incompleteness, imprecise species description and/or identification, as well as the inclusion of cultivated and non-indigenous mushrooms. Nevertheless, we hope that the Tox Info Suisse inventory will stimulate and enable a variety of ecological-oriented follow-up studies.

PLOS ONE, 2015

Sexual size dimorphism is widespread throughout seabird taxa and several drivers leading to its evolution have been hypothesised. While the Australasian Gannet (Morus serrator) has previously been considered nominally monomorphic, recent studies have documented sexual segregation in diet and foraging areas, traits often associated with size dimorphism. The present study investigated the sex differences in body mass and structural size of this species at two colonies (Pope's Eye, PE; Point Danger, PD) in northern Bass Strait, southeastern Australia. Females were found to be 3.1% and 7.3% heavier (2.74 ± 0.03, n = 92; 2.67 ± 0.03 kg, n = 43) than males (2.66 ± 0.03, n = 92; 2.48 ± 0.03 kg, n = 43) at PE and PD, respectively. Females were also larger in wing ulna length (0.8% both colonies) but smaller in bill depth (PE: 2.2%; PD: 1.7%) than males. Despite this dimorphism, a discriminant function provided only mild accuracy in determining sex. A similar degree of dimorphism was also found within breeding pairs, however assortative mating was not apparent at either colony (R 2 < 0.04). Using hydrogen isotope dilution, a body condition index was developed from morphometrics to estimate total body fat (TBF) stores, where TBF(%) = 24.43+1.94*(body mass/wing ulna length)-0.58*tarsus length (r 2 = 0.84, n = 15). This index was used to estimate body composition in all sampled individuals. There was no significant difference in TBF(%) between the sexes for any stage of breeding or in any year of the study at either colony suggesting that, despite a greater body mass, females were not in a better condition than males. While the driving mechanism for sexual dimorphism in this species is currently unknown, studies of other Sulids indicate segregation in foraging behaviour, habitat and diet may be a contributing factor.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010

Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link between plant species&#39; phenological response to climate change and a phylogenetic bias in species&#39; decline in the eastern United States. We extend a similar approach to plant and bird communities in the United States and the UK that further demonstrates that climate change has differentially impacted species based on their phylogenetic relatedness and shared phenological responses. In plants, phenological responses to climate change are often shared among closely related species (i.e. clades),...

Ecological Research, 2015

Birds select habitats on the basis of structural characteristics, food and nest‐site availability or other features that affect survival and reproduction. This study investigates factors influencing colony re‐occupation, the number of nests in 2013 and changes in the numbers of nest between 2004 and 2013 in re‐occupied colonies of Grey Herons Ardea cinerea in northern Poland. The effects of following features around every colony were analysed: area of hydrographic and habitat features, habitat patchiness and microscale features. Among 28 colonies occupied in 2004, 43 % were re‐occupied in 2013. Logistic regression models revealed that models with greater area of the sea coastline zone and lower area of the water body shoreline zone and also small number of pastures determined the best colony re‐occupation. Only models with an area of water bodies and a number of pastures were significant, suggesting the important influence of other non‐habitat factors on colony re‐occupation. Ordina...

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 2020

The woolly poplar aphid Phloeomyzus passerinii Signoret (Aphididae: Phloeomyzinae) is a major pest of poplar plantations. We hypothesized that recent temperature increases may have contributed to the emergence and subsequent northward expansion of outbreaks in France. 2 We reared P. passerinii at four temperatures to estimate its thermal requirements. We used experimental data to parametrize a mechanistic and temperature-driven physiologically-based demographic model. The model was used to simulate the effect of temperature on aphid dynamics and to assess the role of climate warming on the spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaks. 3 The lower developmental threshold was estimated at 6.4 ∘ C and the development degree-days at 171. 4 Our model supports the hypothesis that recent warming may have promoted outbreaks in northern France. During recent exceptionally warm years, more than 70% of the northern poplar area was favourable for outbreaks. 5 Our model suggests that climate warming is not the sole factor involved. The dominance of resistant poplar genotypes such as 'Robusta' or 'Beaupré' may have preserved plantations from outbreaks before 1996 in southern France and until 2000 in the central part. Other factors, including biological characteristics, biotic interactions, or precipitation should be investigated.

Scientific Reports, 2023

The changing physical properties of the Southern Ocean are known to impact the recruitment and survival of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). For oceanic krill predators, the resulting reduced energy intake may lead to population-level effects likely preceded by an alteration in the animals' body condition. This is especially true for capital breeders that rely on stored energy for successful reproduction. One such Southern Ocean capital breeder, the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis), has been monitored over the past 43 years in their South African wintering ground. Changes in the population have been documented in the past decade, including a decreased reproductive rate and a shift in foraging strategy. To evaluate if a reduced foraging success is an underlying factor, we assessed the temporal variation in morphological body condition through aerial photogrammetry. Results showed a 23% reduction in maternal body condition, potentially contributing to the decreased reproductive rate of the population. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify a decadal reduction in the body condition of a capital breeder dependent on Southern Ocean productivity. Understanding the bioenergetic consequences of environmental change is vital to predicting species' resilience to climate change.

Scientific Reports

Early life phenology is a crucial factor for population dynamics in a climate change scenario. As such, understanding how the early life cycle of marine fishes is influenced by key oceanic and climate drivers is of chief importance for sustainable fisheries. This study documents interannual changes in early life phenology of two commercial flatfishes: European flounder (Platichthys flesus) and common sole (Solea solea) from 2010 to 2015 based on otolith microstructure. Using GAMs, we looked for correlations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyl a concentration (Chla) and upwelling (Ui) variation with the onset of hatch, metamorphosis, and benthic settlement day. We concluded that higher SST, more intensive upwelling, and EA were coincident with a later the onset of each stage, while increasing NAO induces an earlier onset of each stage. Although similar to S. solea, P. flesus showed a more complex interactio...

Ecography, 2020

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co‐fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log‐linear density‐dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large‐scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change eff...

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2018

Tempora variabi ity in the environment drives variation in vita rates with conse quences for popu ation dynamics and ife history evo ution Integra projection mode s IPMs are data driven structured popu ation mode s wide y used to study popu ation dynamics and ife history evo ution in tempora y variab e environ ments However many datasets have insufficient tempora rep ication for the en

Ecological Entomology, 2018

1. Insect phenology is driven by local climate variables, most notably temperature. Increased warming has been linked to advancements in critical phenophases such as the spring flight of reproductive adults in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.A. 2. Local climate is governed by the fluctuations of large-scale climate oscillations. In the northern hemisphere, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) control the local autumn and winter severity. Low NAO and AO indices are associated with colder autumns and winters, which can delay spring phenology. 3. In this study, 36 years of data from experimental fruit orchards in Biglerville, Pennsylvania, were used to run partial least-squares regressions in order to determine the climate variables related to the spring phenology of five tortricid pest species. 4. The phenology of the tortricid pests did not advance, even though there was evidence of warming at the research site. 5. Spring temperatures were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the timing of the spring flights. However, autumn-winter temperatures were also important. 6. For the NAO and the AO, it was found that these oscillations affected the tortricid moths by influencing autumn-winter conditions. The oscillations of the NAO and AO can obscure long-term changes in phenology. 7. These findings suggest that the inclusion of large-scale climate oscillations can provide important insights into how climate conditions can influence insect phenology, and presents an opportunity for improving the ability to forecast spring emergence.

Ecology, 2008

An evaluation of the link between climate and population dynamics requires understanding of climate effects both within and across generations. In ectothermic vertebrates, demographic responses to climate changes should crucially depend on balancing needs for heat and water. Here, we studied how temperature and rainfall regimes experienced before and during adulthood influenced reproductive performances (litter size, offspring size, and survival) in a natural population of the live-bearing common lizard, Lacerta vivipara, monitored continuously from 1989 to 2004. Rainfall regime, but not temperature, had both immediate and delayed effects on these reproductive performances. Rainfall during the first month of life was positively correlated with juvenile survival. Females experiencing more rainfall during gestation produced smaller neonates that showed greater survival when controlling for the positive effect of body size on survival. Furthermore, females that experienced heavier rainfall when in utero produced fewer but longer neonates during adulthood. These demographic effects of rainfall on adult reproductive traits may come from maternal effects of climate conditions and/or from delayed effects of rainfall on the environment experienced early in life. Irrespective of the precise mechanism, however, this study provides evidence of intergenerational climate effects in natural populations of an ectothermic vertebrate.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 2018

PLoS ONE, 2014

As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000-2009) in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males), and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%). Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally), suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1:1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher's classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.

Global change biology, 2017

A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such &quot;trophic asynchrony&quot; is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to sprin...

Scientific Reports, 2022

Understanding the effects of climate-mediated environmental variation on the distribution of organisms is critically important in an era of global change. We used wavelet analysis to quantify the spatiotemporal (co)variation in daily water temperature for predicting the distribution of cryptic refugia across 16 intertidal sites that were characterized as 'no', 'weak' or 'strong' upwelling and spanned 2000 km of the European Atlantic Coast. Sites experiencing weak upwelling exhibited high synchrony in temperature but low levels of co-variability at monthly to weekly timescales, whereas the opposite was true for sites experiencing strong upwelling. This suggests upwelling generates temporal thermal refugia that can promote organismal performance by both supplying colder water that mitigates thermal stress during hot Summer months and ensuring high levels of finescale variation in temperature that reduce the duration of thermal extremes. Additionally, pairwise correlograms based on the Pearson-product moment correlation coefficient and wavelet coherence revealed scale dependent trends in temperature fluctuations across space, with a rapid decay in strong upwelling sites at monthly and weekly timescales. This suggests upwelling also generates spatial thermal refugia that can 'rescue' populations from unfavorable conditions at local and regional scales. Overall, this study highlights the importance of identifying cryptic spatiotemporal refugia that emerge from fine-scale environmental variation to map potential patterns of organismal performance in a rapidly changing world. Predicting species distributions and ascribing them to their underlying causes is a key component of conservation and climate adaptation strategies 1. However, identifying the mechanisms behind patterns of species abundance is particularly challenging, as natural systems are coupled in space and time via the interplay of eco-environmental feedbacks operating at multiple scales. This inherent complexity has led to fundamental debates about the scales and approaches that are most likely to yield fundamental insights about ecological systems 2-4. For instance, proponents of macroecology suggest that the idiosyncratic and system-specific results that often plague community studies conducted at small scales give way to statistically consistent patterns at larger scales 2. While macroecological studies are useful for identifying patterns that hold across large swaths of taxa and systems over large temporal and spatial scales, they are often unable to link these general relationships to their causal mechanisms. For instance, a review by McGill et al. 5 highlighted dozens of mechanisms ranging from diametrically opposed niche and neutral assembly processes that could give rise to the "hollow curve", the quasi-universal distribution of abundance whereby communities are dominated by a few abundant species and a multitude of rare ones. Hence, the search for universality can be characterized as a double-edged sword because predictability often comes at the cost of mechanistic understanding. Conversely, community ecology, which has traditionally focused on small scales, has had a successful track record of using manipulative experiments to identify the mechanistic underpinnings of many ecological patterns 3. However, 'scaling-up' these results to understand species-rich ecosystems across biogeographic scales is rarely feasible, so a majority of the work has focused on attempting to reduce the dynamics of these inherently complex systems to those of simple community modules consisting of a few key species (e.g., keystone species 6 , or foundational species 7) and interactions (e.g., trophic cascades 8). Unfortunately, the diversity of species and interactions that characterize natural systems makes it hard to 'scale-up' from simple communities to whole

Ecosphere, 2016

An understanding of how environmental changes affect life history traits and population dynamics is essential for predicting the effects of climate change, managing ecosystems, and determining how species and habitats can best be preserved. This applies particularly to seabirds, which, as top marine predators, are often considered as indicators of marine ecosystem changes. Most studies have so far been conducted in polar or temperate regions. However, important changes in the functioning of tropical marine ecosystems have been reported, but the responses of top predators remain poorly known. This study focused on a tropical seabird, Audubon's shearwater Puffinus lherminieri, analyzing the relationships between climate change and the survival of adults, nesting success, and population dynamics. The population studied breeds in Martinique, in the south of the Caribbean region, which is strongly influenced by the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. A data set for the period 1995 to 2014 was used to estimate the survival by age classes and breeding success and to determine which climate variables most affected demographic parameters. The population dynamics were modeled to predict the future population growth rates in response to climate change. The annual adult survival rate increased over the last 20 years, currently standing at 94% for adult birds more than 6 years old. Adult survival increased with sea surface temperature (SST) during the nonbreeding season as well as with Amazon River discharge, although the latter with a lag of 1 year. The effect of SST was explained by the positive relationship between SST and chlorophyll a during years of high discharge from the Amazon and Orinoco. The population decreased between 1995 and 2007 at a rate of 3% per year and then increased between 2008 and 2014 at a rate of 7% per year. The increase in adult survival observed should continue as temperatures increase in the future, and the population models predicted a stable or increasing population over the next 50 years (λ = 1.018). These results contrast with the negative effect of increasing SST on seabird populations found in temperate and polar regions, emphasizing the need to study the impact of climate change on tropical seabirds.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2018

The daily minimum air temperature data from 18 stations located in the northwest of Iran during the period 1986-2015 was used to analyse the inter-annual variations and trends of thermal growing season indices (tGSI) and their relations with different atmospheric teleconnection patterns (ATPs). To analyze the changes in tGSI, tGSS (thermal growing season start), tGSE (thermal growing season end), and tGSL, the time period between tGSS and tGSE were considered. Using non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman tests, the existence of a significant trend for time series of the tGSI and the correlation between ATPs and tGSI was evaluated. For eliminating the effect of serial correlation on test results, the trend-free pre-whitening approach was applied. Furthermore, residual bootstrap method was used to estimate the standard deviation of the Spearman correlation coefficient between tGSI and ATPs. The climate-based results showed the maximum tGSL increase (13.3 days per decade) for SA-C-M climate. For SH-K-W climate, the maximum significant trends for tGSS and tGSE were 9.6 (earlier start) and 10.8 (delay) days per decade, respectively. In general, in all statistically significant cases, the main cause of the extended tGSL was both earlier tGSS and delayed tGSE. In regional scale, it was found that the most effective teleconnection pattern on tGSS and tGSE are MEI (positive correlation), occurring during late winter and spring, and PDO index (negative correlation) in the summer, respectively. Moreover, the tGSL demonstrated the highest correlation (negative) with PDO with 1month delay. The findings highlight that the inter-annual variations of tGSI in northwest of Iran can be attributed to the influence of certain atmospheric teleconnection patterns such as MEI, PDO, NAO, AO, EA, and AMO.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2009

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.

Marine Biology, 2022

Copepods are a key trophic link in marine food web dynamics, connecting primary producers to higher trophic levels. Recent warming conditions have reduced the concentrations of essential fatty acids (EFAs) in phytoplankton, and it remains unknown if copepods have the adaptive capacity to cope. Calanoid species, Temora longicornis, and harpacticoid, Platychelipus littoralis, from the North Sea and Westerschelde mudflat respectively, were chosen to characterize the fatty acid (FA) biosynthesis response to a polyunsaturated FA (PUFA) deficient diet (Dunaliella tertiolecta) along a temperature gradient. Copepods were fed 13 C-labelled D. tertiolecta to quantify assimilation and de novo FA production at 11, 14, 17, 20, and 23 ˚C. FA composition and 13 C isotope incorporation were determined using gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and GC-combustion carbon isotope ratio-MS (GC-C-IRMS) respectively.

Ecological Monographs, 2021

Ecology, 2010

A major challenge in ecology is to understand the impact of increased environmental variability on populations and ecosystems. To maximize their fitness in a variable environment, life history theory states that individuals should favor a bet‐hedging strategy, involving a reduction of annual breeding performance and an increase in adult survival so that reproduction can be attempted over more years. As a result, evolution toward longer life span is expected to reduce the deleterious effects of extra variability on population growth, and consequently on the trait contributing the most to it (e.g., adult survival in long‐lived species). To investigate this, we compared the life histories of two Black‐browed Albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) populations breeding at South Georgia (Atlantic Ocean) and Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), the former in an environment nearly three times more variable climatically (e.g., in sea surface temperature) than the latter. As predicted, individuals from So...

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2018

Global warming is considered as a phenomenon having a negative effect on animals living in cold climate. However, herbivorous species inhabiting cold zones may potentially benefit from increase of temperature as this influence duration of vegetation period and increase food resources. In this study, we analyze the impact of climate factors on the long-term dynamics of an isolated and unhunted population of the Tatra chamois Rupicapra rupicapra tatrica. The population growth rate, based on autumnal chamois counting carried out from 1957 to 2016, were correlated with a set of climatic variables. We tested the hypothesis that high temperatures in summer could have a positive impact on the population, since they influence vegetation growth, which ensure food resources. On the other hand, heavy falls of snow and long-lasting and deep snow cover could adversely affect the population by reducing population survival during the winter. The results of this study indicate that climatic variables best explaining the autoregressed population growth rate (from the autumn of year t-1 to the autumn of year t) were the mean summer temperature of year t-1: the population increase was greater following a warmer summer in year t-1 and, in lower extent, the total precipitation during winter: the population decrease was greater following a winter with heavy snowfall. Duration and thickness of snow cover have no negative effect on population growth rate. The results indicate that the population dynamic of the Tatra chamois is determined in the long term by weather conditions, mainly by temperature, when kids are birthing and growing. The results of this work highlight that climatic changes may be responsible for the population dynamic of high-mountain species. Climate warming may lead to increase in duration of vegetation period in cold climatic zones, what may in turn have positive effect on herbivorous species, which relay upon food resources limited by low temperatures within vegetation period.