A Survey of Project Risk Assessment and Estimation Models

Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, 2014

Many software project management end in failure. Risk analysis is an essential process to support project success. There is a growing need for systematic methods to supplement expert judgment in order to increase the accuracy in the prediction of risk likelihood and impact. In this paper, we evaluated support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), a linear regression model and monte carlo simulation to perform risk analysis based on PERIL data. We have conducted a statistical experiment to determine which is a more accurate method in risk impact estimation. Our experimental results showed that artificial neural network methods proposed in this study outperformed both linear regression and monte carlo simulation.

eng.uwo.ca

Software projects development can be considered the most uncertain and complex project when compared to other types of projects, because its activities involve an intangible product and is continually changing in response to customers' requirements and the development of new technology. Under these conditions, risk management in software development projects is mandatory, but often it is difficult and expensive to implement. Expert COCOMO is one efficient approach to software project risk management, which leverages existing knowledge and expertise from previous effort estimation activities to assess the risk in a new software project. However, this method has a limitation because it cannot effectively deal with imprecise and uncertain inputs in the form of linguistic terms such as: Very

Journal of Scientific Perspectives

Problem of software projects risks evaluation is identified. Review of modern approaches to risks evaluation is carried out. Analysis of software projects risks evaluation methods is performed. Analysis of sensitivity, scenarios method, simulation modeling, expert assessment are reviewed. Conclusions on importance of risks evaluation for "Software as a Service" software application systems at design stage are performed. It's proposed to perform software projects risks evaluation with expert assessment using by realization of corresponding information technology. Mathematically risks evaluation technology is realized by Delphi method and ranking. Term of confidence interval is used as stopover criterion in computational procedure of Delphi method with the goal of coherent expert opinion obtaining. Calculating procedure envisages initial expert data correction by expert opinions revision and correction of expert group personnel. Consistency of expert opinions in mathematical technology on ranking method is checking with using of Kendall concordance coefficient, and its significance is evaluating on the basis of Pearson criterion. Presented mathematical apparatus formalizes solution of risks evaluation problem. Methods of software projects risks evaluation and theirs mathematical technologies requires a big amount of calculating operations. Information support increases the rate and precision of such

Communications of the ACM, 1998

1999

The purpose of this work is to make a practical contribution to those interested in achieving a successful software project by knowingly and methodically reducing the major risks associated with it. For a project, risk may be imagined as the possibility of not achieving one or more of its specified and agreed-upon objectives, with the damage that derives from this.

Risk is not always avoidable, but it is controllable. The aim of this paper is to present new techniques which use the stepwise regression analysis to model and evaluate the risks in planning software development and reducing risk with software process improvement. Top ten software risk factors in planning software development phase and thirty control factors were presented to respondents. This study incorporates risk management approach and planning software development to mitigate software project failure. Performed techniques used stepwise regression analysis models to compare the controls to each of the risk planning software development factors, in order to determine and evaluate if they are effective in mitigating the occurrence of each risk planning factor and, finally, to select the optimal model. Also, top ten risk planning software development factors were mitigated by using control factors. The study has been conducted on a group of software project managers. Successful project risk management will greatly improve the probability of project success.

2010

It is a fact that management of software projects has always been challenging and number of them results in failure that in return jeopardizes organization's prospects. One of the reasons of high failure rate is that critical steps to assess and manage software project risks are not properly adapted. If risks are improperly assessed and prioritized, then it may become a precursor to waste of available time and money, it may also lead to dealing with those risks which are not likely to occur. In this research paper different risk assessment models have been studied, analyzed and compared, to determine their efficacy in the context of prevailing local software development environment. Therefore, models are correlated with the maturity of organization's processes, using CMMI. Based on the study a model has been derived and suggested. Recommended risk assessment models will be useful for proper risk assessment early in project life cycle with a low budget incurred on risk assess...

Proceedings of the International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, 2009

In software development, an adequate risks management increases the quality of the final product. However, the importance of this activity is not always acknowledged, and since it requires a high level of experience, it is often not carried out. This article presents a Knowledge-Based System that allows software developers and, or, project managers to evaluate the viability of a project on the basis of its risks: it offers an initial estimation of the risks that must be taken into account and of their impact on the software development project. The proposed system was designed according to the CommonKADS methodology and implemented by means of the Clips tool.

IEEE Software, 2000

There is little to instruct software project managers on how to handle risk in a way that ensures the success of contingency planning and avoids crisis. This sevenstep procedure describes how to identify risk factors, calculate their probability and effect on a project, and plan for and conduct risk management. RICHARD FAIRLEY Software Engineering Management Associates RISK MANAGEMENT FOR S O F W A R E PROJECTS any software projects fail to M deliver acceptable systems within schedule and budget. Many of these failures might have been avoided had the project team properly assessed and mitigated the risk factors, yet risk management is seldom applied as an explicit project-management activity. One reason risk management is not practiced is that very few guidelines are available that offer a practical, step-by-step approach to managing risk. To address this deficiency, I have created a seven-step process for risk management that can be applied to all types of software projects.

CLEI Electronic Journal, 2013

The usage of indicators acts in both strategic and tactical levels, it is effective for optimization of processes and also supports managerial decisions. Despite the relevance of risk management in software projects, it is in fact still usually overlooked by the organizations that develop software. One reason for this fact is that the concept of risk is abstract and subjective, and its management does not bring apparent immediate practical result. Differently, for example, in the financial market, where the risk management is consolidated and widely applied, and it is currently a need for the companies that work in this field. Briefly, risk management practices just became effectively consolidated in the financial market field when the uncertainties became measurable. In this context, this paper aims to define and propose indicators that are specific for environments of software projects in order to support risk assessment activities – risk identification and risk analysis. To achie...