Inequality and the Us Import Demand Function
2006, Social Science Research Network
https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.940354Abstract
In this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences. The empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining US data for the 1948-1996 period. Using the Johansen (1988) procedure we find that there is no evidence of a long run relationship of a standard imports equation (one including imports, income, and relative prices). However, once we include a measure of inequality in our VAR specification we find not only evidence for the existence of a cointegrating equation in imports, income, relative prices and inequality, but that the evolution of inequality has a large and positive influence on the demand for imports in the US. Moreover we find that our results are robust to alternative methods of estimating cointegration equations.
References (101)
- Acemoglu, D. (2002), "Technical Change, Inequality and the Labor Market", Journal of Economic Literature, 40, 1, pp. 7-72.
- Armington, P.S. (1969), "A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of location", IMF Sta¤ Papers, 26, pp. 159-178.
- Boyd D., G.M. Caporale and R. Smith (2001), "Real Exchange Rate E¤ects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegratiopn and the Marshall-Lerner Condition", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, pp. 187-200
- Bowen, H.P., E. Leamer, and L. Sviekauskas (1987), "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory", American Economic Review, 82, pp. 371-392.
- Brandolini A. (1998 ), "A Bird's-Eye View of Long-Run Changes in Income Inequality", Banca d'Italia Research Department.
- Chinn, M. (2005a), "Doomed to De…cits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined", Review of World Economics, 141(3), pp. 460-485.
- Chinn, M. (2005b), "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. trade De…cit, Once Again", International Finance, 7(3), pp. 1-19.
- Creedy, J. (1977), "Pareto and the Distribution of Income," Review of Income and Wealth, 23, pp. 405-411.
- Deininger, A. and L. Squire (1996), A new data set measuring inequality, WIDER, Word Bank.
- Flam, H. and E. Helpman (1987), "Vertical Product Di¤erentiation and North-South Trade", American Economic Review, 77, pp. 810-822.
- Francois, J.and S. Kaplan (1996), "Aggregate Demand Shifts, Income Distribution, and the Linder Hypothesis." Review of Economics and Statistics, 78, 2 , pp. 244-250.
- Goldstein, M. and M.S. Khan (1985), "Income and Price E¤ects in Foreign Trade", in R. W. Jones and P.B.Kenen (eds), Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 2, North-Holland, New York.
- Gonzalo, J. (1994), "Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships", Journal of Econometrics, 60, 203-233.
- Grossman, G. (1982), " Import competition from developed and developing countries", Review of Economics and Statistics, 64, pp. 271-281.
- Hansen, B. (2000), "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation", Econometrica, 68, pp.575-603.
- Hargreaves, C.P. (1994), "A Review of Methods of Estimating Cointegrating Relation- ships"in C.P. Hargreaves (ed.), Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration, 87-132, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Helkie, W. and P. Hooper (1988), "An Empirical Analysis of the External De…cit, 1980-86", in R. Bryant, G. Holtham and P. Hooper, External De…cits and the Dollar, Brookings Institution.
- Hooper, P., and J. Marquez (1995), "Exchange rates, prices, and external adjustment in the United States and Japan", in Kenen, P. (ed.), Understanding Interdependence, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
- Hooper, P, Johnson K. and J. Marquez (1998), "Trade Elasticities for G-7 Countries", International Finance Discussion Papers No. 609, Federal Reserve Board, Washington D.C. Houthakker, H., and S. Magee (1969), "Income and price elasticities in world trade", Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, pp.111-125.
- Hunter, L. (1991), "The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade", Journal of International Economics 30, pp. 345-358.
- Inder, B. (1993), "Estimating Long-Run Relationships in Economics. A Comparison of Di¤erent Approaches", Journal of Econometrics, 57, pp. 53-68.
- Johansen, S. (1988), "Statistcal Analysis of Cointegration Vectors", Journal of Eco- nomic Dynamics and Control 12, pp. 231-254.
- Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, pp. 169-210.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, 59, pp 1551-80.
- Johnston, L.D. and M. Chinn (1996), "How well is America Competing? A Comment on Papadakis", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 15(1), pp. 68-81.
- Katsimi, M. and T. Moutos (2005), "Inequality and Relative Reliance on Tari¤s: The- ory and Evidence", CESifo Working Paper No. 1457.
- Kohli, U.R. (1982), "Relative price e¤ects and the demand for imports", Canadian Journal of Economics, 15, pp. 205-219.
- Krugman, P. (1989), "Di¤erences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates", European Economic Review, 33, pp. 1031-1054.
- Linder, S. (1961), An Essay on Trade and Transformation, Almqvist and Wiksells, Uppsala.
- Malley, J.and T. Moutos, (2002), "Vertical product di¤erentiation and the import demand function: theory and evidence", Canadian Journal of Economics, 35, pp. 257- 281.
- Marquez, J. (2000), "The Puzzling Income Elasticity of US Imports", World Conference of Econometric Society.
- Marquez, J. (2002), Estimating Trade Elasticities, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.
- Meade, E. (1991), "A Fresh Look at the Resposiveness of Trade Flows to Exchange Rates", Annual meeting of the Western Economic Association.
- Mitra, D. and V. Trindade (2003), "Inequality and Trade."NBER Working Paper No. 10087.
- Markusen, J. (1986), "Explaining the Volume of Trade: an Eclectic Approach", Amer- ican Economic Review, 76, 5, pp.1002-1011.
- Panopoulou, E. and N. Pittis (2004), "A Comparison of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Dynamic OLS Cointegration Estimators in the Case of a Serially Correlated Cointegration Error", Econometrics Journal, 7, pp. 585-687.
- Pesaran, M.H. and Y. Shin (1999) "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Ap- proach to Cointegration Analysis", in S. Strom (ed.) Econometrics and Economic The- ory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frish Centennial Symposium, Econometric So- ciety Monograph, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
- Phillips, P.C.B. and B.E. Hansen (1990) "Statistical Inference in Instumental Variables Regression withI(1) Processes,"Review of Economic Studies, 57:99-125.
- Phillips, P.C.B. (1991) "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, 59, pp. 283-306.
- Phillips, P.C.B. and M. Loretan (1991), "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria", Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp. 407-436.
- Rose, A. (1991), "The Role of Exchange Rates in a Popular Model of International Trade: Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' Condition Hold?" Journal of International Eco- nomics, 30, pp. 301-316.
- Rose, A. and J. Yellen (1989), "Is there a J-Curve?", Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, pp. 53-68.
- Rosen, S. (1974), "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Di¤erentiation in Pure Competition", Journal of Political Economy, 82, pp. 34-55.
- Schott, P. (2003), "Across-Product versus Within-Product Specialization in Interna- tional Trade", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, pp. 657-691.
- Tre ‡er, D. (1995), "The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries," American Economic Review, 85, pp.1029-1046.
- CESifo Working Paper Series (for full list see T www.cesifo-group.de)T ___________________________________________________________________________ 1764 Didier Laussel and Raymond Riezman, Fixed Transport Costs and International Trade, July 2006
- 1765 Rafael Lalive, How do Extended Benefits Affect Unemployment Duration? A Regression Discontinuity Approach, July 2006
- 1766 Eric Hillebrand, Gunther Schnabl and Yasemin Ulu, Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility, July 2006
- 1767 Carsten Hefeker, EMU Enlargement, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms, July 2006 1768 Giovanni Facchini and Anna Maria Mayda, Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants across Countries, July 2006
- 1769 Maarten Bosker and Harry Garretsen, Geography Rules Too! Economic Development and the Geography of Institutions, July 2006
- M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmermann, Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-category Variables, July 2006
- 1771 Juergen von Hagen and Haiping Zhang, Financial Liberalization in a Small Open Economy, August 2006
- 1772 Alessandro Cigno, Is there a Social Security Tax Wedge?, August 2006 1773 Peter Egger, Simon Loretz, Michael Pfaffermayr and Hannes Winner, Corporate Taxation and Multinational Activity, August 2006
- 1774 Jeremy S.S. Edwards, Wolfgang Eggert and Alfons J. Weichenrieder, The Measurement of Firm Ownership and its Effect on Managerial Pay, August 2006
- 1775 Scott Alan Carson and Thomas N. Maloney, Living Standards in Black and White: Evidence from the Heights of Ohio Prison Inmates, 1829 -1913, August 2006
- 1776 Richard Schmidtke, Two-Sided Markets with Pecuniary and Participation Externalities, August 2006
- 1777 Ben J. Heijdra and Jenny E. Ligthart, The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy in Small Open Economies, August 2006
- 1778 Jay Pil Choi, How Reasonable is the 'Reasonable' Royalty Rate? Damage Rules and Probabilistic Intellectual Property Rights, August 2006
- 1779 Ludger Woessmann, Efficiency and Equity of European Education and Training Policies, August 2006
- 1780 Gregory Ponthiere, Growth, Longevity and Public Policy, August 2006
- 1781 Laszlo Goerke, Corporate and Personal Income Tax Declarations, August 2006 1782
- Florian Englmaier, Pablo Guillén, Loreto Llorente, Sander Onderstal and Rupert Sausgruber, The Chopstick Auction: A Study of the Exposure Problem in Multi-Unit Auctions, August 2006
- 1783 Adam S. Posen and Daniel Popov Gould, Has EMU had any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?, August 2006
- 1784 Paolo M. Panteghini, A Simple Explanation for the Unfavorable Tax Treatment of Investment Costs, August 2006
- 1785 Alan J. Auerbach, Why have Corporate Tax Revenues Declined? Another Look, August 2006 1786 Hideshi Itoh and Hodaka Morita, Formal Contracts, Relational Contracts, and the Holdup Problem, August 2006
- 1787 Rafael Lalive and Alejandra Cattaneo, Social Interactions and Schooling Decisions, August 2006
- 1788 George Kapetanios, M. Hashem Pesaran and Takashi Yamagata, Panels with Nonstationary Multifactor Error Structures, August 2006
- 1789 Torben M. Andersen, Increasing Longevity and Social Security Reforms, August 2006
- 1790 John Whalley, Recent Regional Agreements: Why so many, why so much Variance in Form, why Coming so fast, and where are they Headed?, August 2006
- 1791 Sebastian G. Kessing and Kai A. Konrad, Time Consistency and Bureaucratic Budget Competition, August 2006
- 1792 Bertil Holmlund, Qian Liu and Oskar Nordström Skans, Mind the Gap? Estimating the Effects of Postponing Higher Education, August 2006
- 1793 Peter Birch Sørensen, Can Capital Income Taxes Survive? And Should They?, August 2006 1794
- Michael Kosfeld, Akira Okada and Arno Riedl, Institution Formation in Public Goods Games, September 2006
- 1795 Marcel Gérard, Reforming the Taxation of Multijurisdictional Enterprises in Europe, a Tentative Appraisal, September 2006 Risk Taking, September 2006
- 1797 Dominique M. Gross and Nicolas Schmitt, Why do Low-and High-Skill Workers Migrate? Flow Evidence from France, September 2006
- 1798 Dan Bernhardt, Stefan Krasa and Mattias Polborn, Political Polarization and the Electoral Effects of Media Bias, September 2006
- 1799 Pierre Pestieau and Motohiro Sato, Estate Taxation with Both Accidental and Planned Bequests, September 2006
- 1800 Øystein Foros and Hans Jarle Kind, Do Slotting Allowances Harm Retail Competition?, September 2006
- 1801 Tobias Lindhe and Jan Södersten, The Equity Trap, the Cost of Capital and the Firm's Growth Path, September 2006
- 1802 Wolfgang Buchholz, Richard Cornes and Wolfgang Peters, Existence, Uniqueness and Some Comparative Statics for Ratio-and Lindahl Equilibria: New Wine in Old Bottles, September 2006
- 1803 Jan Schnellenbach, Lars P. Feld and Christoph Schaltegger, The Impact of Referendums on the Centralisation of Public Goods Provision: A Political Economy Approach, September 2006
- 1804 David-Jan Jansen and Jakob de Haan, Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?, September 2006
- 1805 Jerome L. Stein, United States Current Account Deficits: A Stochastic Optimal Control Analysis, September 2006
- 1806 Friedrich Schneider, Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: What do we really Know?, September 2006
- 1807 Joerg Lingens and Klaus Waelde, Pareto-Improving Unemployment Policies, September 2006
- 1808 Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm and James Raymond Vreeland, Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence IMF Decisions? Evidence from Panel Data, September 2006
- 1809 Prabir De, Regional Trade in Northeast Asia: Why do Trade Costs Matter?, September 2006 1810 Antonis Adam and Thomas Moutos, A Politico-Economic Analysis of Minimum Wages and Wage Subsidies, September 2006
- 1811 Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Christoph Hanck, Cointegration Tests of PPP: Do they also Exhibit Erratic Behaviour?, September 2006
- 1812 Robert S. Chirinko and Hisham Foad, Noise vs. News in Equity Returns, September 2006 1813
- Oliver Huelsewig, Eric Mayer and Timo Wollmershaeuser, Bank Behavior and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission, September 2006
- 1814 Michael S. Michael, Are Migration Policies that Induce Skilled (Unskilled) Migration Beneficial (Harmful) for the Host Country?, September 2006
- 1815 Eytan Sheshinski, Optimum Commodity Taxation in Pooling Equilibria, October 2006 1816 Gottfried Haber and Reinhard Neck, Sustainability of Austrian Public Debt: A Political Economy Perspective, October 2006
- 1817 Thiess Buettner, Michael Overesch, Ulrich Schreiber and Georg Wamser, The Impact of Thin-Capitalization Rules on Multinationals' Financing and Investment Decisions, October 2006
- 1818 Eric O'N. Fisher and Sharon L. May, Relativity in Trade Theory: Towards a Solution to the Mystery of Missing Trade, October 2006
- 1819 Junichi Minagawa and Thorsten Upmann, Labor Supply and the Demand for Child Care: An Intertemporal Approach, October 2006
- 1820 Jan K. Brueckner and Raquel Girvin, Airport Noise Regulation, Airline Service Quality, and Social Welfare, October 2006
- 1821 Sijbren Cnossen, Alcohol Taxation and Regulation in the European Union, October 2006 1822 Frederick van der Ploeg, Sustainable Social Spending in a Greying Economy with Stagnant Public Services: Baumol's Cost Disease Revisited, October 2006
- 1823 Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen and Charles van Marrewijk, Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions: The Facts as a Guide for International Economics, October 2006 1824 J. Atsu Amegashie, A Psychological Game with Interdependent Preference Types, October 2006
- 1825 Kurt R. Brekke, Ingrid Koenigbauer and Odd Rune Straume, Reference Pricing of Pharmaceuticals, October 2006
- 1826 Sean Holly, M. Hashem Pesaran and Takashi Yamagata, A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US, October 2006
- 1827 Margarita Katsimi and Thomas Moutos, Inequality and the US Import Demand Function, October 2006