luca polonio

University of Milano Bicocca, Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, Faculty Member

University of Trento, Centre for Mind/Brain Sciences (CIMeC), Post-Doc

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities, Economics, Post-Doc

Followers

Following

Co-authors

Public Views

In my research, I use an interdisciplinary approach that combines Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Cognitive Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, and Psychophysics. I am particularly interested in how attentional mechanisms, logical thinking, and reasoning skills are involved in economic decision-making.
Supervisors: Aldo Rustichini, Giorgio Coricelli, and Nicolao Bonini
Phone: Mobile: +39-3881990266
Address: N. 9, via C. Battisti, 35047, Solesino, Padova, Italy

less

InterestsView All (9)

Uploads

Papers by luca polonio

Bounded Rationality, Beliefs and Social Preferences in Strategic Interaction

Social Science Research Network, 2024

Enhancing Strategic Sophistication: A Novel Approach for Expert Negotiators and Non-Experts

Who's the deceiver? Identifying deceptive intentions in communication

Games and economic behavior, May 1, 2024

The Role of Attention and Frames on Third-Party Punishment and Compensation Preferences

Exploring the Effects of Scanpath Feature Engineering for Supervised Image Classification Models

Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction

Image classification models are becoming a popular method of analysis for scanpath classification... more Image classification models are becoming a popular method of analysis for scanpath classification. To implement these models, gaze data must first be reconfigured into a 2D image. However, this step gets relatively little attention in the literature as focus is mostly placed on model configuration. As standard model architectures have become more accessible to the wider eye-tracking community, we highlight the importance of carefully choosing feature representations within scanpath images as they may heavily affect classification accuracy. To illustrate this point, we create thirteen sets of scanpath designs incorporating different eye-tracking feature representations from data recorded during a task-based viewing experiment. We evaluate each scanpath design by passing the sets of images through a standard pre-trained deep learning model as well as a SVM image classifier. Results from our primary experiment show an average accuracy improvement of 25 percentage points between the bes...

Download

Predicting Choice Behaviour in Economic Games using Gaze Data Encoded as Scanpath Images

Scientific Reports, 2023

Eye movement data has been extensively utilized by researchers interested in studying decision-ma... more Eye movement data has been extensively utilized by researchers interested in studying decision-making within the strategic setting of economic games. In this paper, we demonstrate both a deep learning and traditional machine learning classification method which are able to accurately identify a given participant's decision strategy before they commit to an action while playing games. Our approach focuses on creating scanpath images that best capture the dynamics of a participant's gaze behaviour during a given game in a way that is meaningful to the machine learning models. Our results demonstrate a higher classification accuracy compared to traditional methods of analysis applied to the same economic game environments by as much as 18 percentage points. In a broader context, we aim to illustrate the potential for eye-tracking data to create information asymmetries in strategic environments in favour of those who collect and process the data. These information asymmetries co...

Download

Il comportamento strategico e i suoi limiti

Download

The process of choice in games

Handbook of Experimental Game Theory, 2020

The study of response times (RTs) has a long history in experimental psychology going back to Don... more The study of response times (RTs) has a long history in experimental psychology going back to Donders (1868) who was interested in measuring the time that a particular hypothetical mental stage involved in a task can take. This was when the idea that response times can help to infer the mental processes behind psychological phenomena took root (Luce 1991). Since then 'mental chronometry' (Jensen 2006) was used by psychologists together with the choice or survey data to make inferences about the processes underlying choices or to analyze behavior under time pressure. As it was recently stated by Ariel Rubinstein (2007, 2016), measuring response time allows us to 'open the black box of decision making' (Rubinstein 2007, p. 1243). The same sentiment is shared in a thorough review of recent experimental economics studies that use RTs (Spiliopoulos and Ortmann 2018). In spite of the view that RT can be utilized not only in testing hypotheses related to the process of choice but also in order to better understand preferences (Konovalov and Krajbich 2019a), its usage in experimental and behavioral economics was limited, if existent, until very recently (a known exception is Wilcox 1993). The tide started to change with the advances in models of procedural rationality and studies of strategic sophistication and deliberation costs (starting with Stahl and Wilson 1994, 1995 and Nagel 1995), which made RT a natural candidate for a choice characteristic that allows uncovering of the details of the decision process under the assumptions of bounded rationality. Another reason for the introduction of RT to experimental economics is the emergence of neuroeconomics, which has brought many psychological and neuroscientific research tools to light, including mental chronometry.

Download

Plasticity of strategic sophistication in interactive decision-making

Journal of Economic Theory, 2021

Abstract We propose an experimental eye-tracking study to test how strategic sophistication is sh... more Abstract We propose an experimental eye-tracking study to test how strategic sophistication is shaped by experience in 3 × 3 two-person normal-form games. Although strategic sophistication has been shown to be linked to a variety of endogenous and exogenous factors, little is known about how it is affected by previous interactive decisions. We show that complete feedback in previous games can significantly enhance strategic sophistication, and that games that in principle provide equivalent learning opportunities lead instead to substantially different learning outcomes. Specifically, only repeated play with feedback of games that emphasize strategic interdependence significantly enhances strategic learning, producing an increase in the frequency of equilibrium play and a shift of attention to the incentives of the counterpart. Moreover, we find that the type of learning underlying newly gained strategic skills can vary substantially across players. Whereas some players eventually learn to visually analyze the payoff matrix consistently with equilibrium reasoning, others appear to use experience with previous interactions to devise simple heuristics of play. Our results have implications for theoretical and computational modeling of learning.

The effect of evidential impact on perceptual probabilistic judgments

In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judg... more In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judgments concerning elementary visual stimuli. Participants were briefly shown sets of figures that had two features (e.g., a geometric shape and a color) with two possible values (e.g., triangle or circle and black or white). For each set, a figure was drawn, participants were informed about the value of one of its features (e.g., that the figure was a “circle”) and had to predict the value of the other (e.g., whether the figure was “black” or “white”). By varying the statistical association between features in the various sets of figures, we manipulated the probability of a feature given the evidence of another (e.g., the posterior probability of hypothesis “black” given the evidence “circle”) as well as the support provided by a feature to another (e.g., the impact, or confirmation, of evidence “circle” on the hypothesis “black”). Results indicated that participants’ judgments were deepl...

Download

Individual differences in competent consumer choice: the role of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills

Frontiers in Psychology, 2015

In this paper, we investigate whether cognitive reflection and numeracy skills affect the quality... more In this paper, we investigate whether cognitive reflection and numeracy skills affect the quality of the consumers' decision-making process in a purchase decision context. In a first (field) experiment, an identical product was on sale in two shops with different initial prices and discounts. One of the two deals was better than the other and the consumers were asked to choose the best one and to describe which arithmetic operations they used to solve the problem; then they were asked to complete the numeracy scale (Lipkus et al., 2001). The choice procedures used by the consumers were classified as "complete decision approach" when all the arithmetic operations needed to solve the problem were computed, and as "partial decision approach" when only some operations were computed. A mediation model shows that higher numeracy is associated with use of the complete decision approach. In turn, this approach is positively associated with the quality of the purchase decision. Given that these findings highlight the importance of the decision processes, in a second (laboratory) experiment we used a supplementary method to study the type of information search used by the participants: eye-tracking. In this experiment the participants were presented with decision problems similar to those used in experiment 1 and they completed the Lipkus numeracy scale and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), (Frederick, 2005). Participants with a high CRT score chose the best deal more frequently, and showed a more profound and detailed information search pattern compared to participants with a low CRT score. Overall, results indicate that higher levels of cognitive reflection and numeracy skills predict the use of a more thorough decision process (measured with two different techniques: retrospective verbal reports and eye movements). In both experiments the decision process is a crucial factor which greatly affects the quality of the purchase decision.

Download

What your Facebook Profile Picture Reveals about your Personality

Proceedings of the 25th ACM international conference on Multimedia, 2017

People spend considerable effort managing the impressions they give others. Social psychologists ... more People spend considerable effort managing the impressions they give others. Social psychologists have shown that people manage these impressions differently depending upon their personality. Facebook and other social media provide a new forum for this fundamental process; hence, understanding people's behaviour on social media could provide interesting insights on their personality. In this paper we investigate automatic personality recognition from Facebook profile pictures. We analyze the effectiveness of four families of visual features and we discuss some human interpretable patterns that explain the personality traits of the individuals. For example, extroverts and agreeable individuals tend to have warm colored pictures and to exhibit many faces in their portraits, mirroring their inclination to socialize; while neurotic ones have a prevalence of pictures of indoor places. Then, we propose a classification approach to automatically recognize personality traits from these visual features. Finally, we compare the performance of our classification approach to the one obtained by human raters and we show that computer-based classifications are significantly more accurate than averaged human-based classifications for Extraversion and Neuroticism.

Download

Disclosing the link between cognitive reflection and sophistication in strategic interaction: the crucial role of game representation

In social contexts, we refer to strategic sophistication as the ability to adapt our own behavior... more In social contexts, we refer to strategic sophistication as the ability to adapt our own behavior based on the possible actions of others. Growing experimental evidence has shown that players implement different levels of sophistication in games, as described by hierarchical models of strategic thinking such as Level-k and Cognitive Hierarchy. In the current study, we explore the role of two cognitive factors – game representation and cognitive reflection - in explaining heterogeneity in strategic behavior. In particular, we hypothesize that higher levels of cognitive reflection specifically predict the implementation of more sophisticated processes of game representation, which in turn explains higher levels of strategic sophistication. In two eye-tracking experiments, we registered eye movements of participants while playing matrix games of increasing relational complexity (2x2 and 3x3 matrices), and we analyzed individual patterns of information acquisition to reveal the ongoing process of game representation-building. In order to assess individual levels of cognitive reflection, participants completed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), among different control measures of cognitive ability. Results show that, in both classes of games, higher cognitive reflection levels specifically predicted the ability to incorporate the counterpart’s incentives in the model of the current game, as well as higher levels of strategic sophistication. Conversely, players exhibiting low cognitive reflection disregarded relevant transitions between the payoffs of the counterpart, and such incomplete visual analysis led to out-of-equilibrium choices. The relationship between cognitive reflection and strategic choices was completely mediated by gaze patterns. Our results shed new light on the cognitive factors driving heterogeneity in strategic thinking, and on theories of bounded rationality.

(old version) The Role of Intelligence in Social Learning *

Gaze data disclose model-based and model-free representation processes

Growing evidence in behavioral decision making supports the existence of two distinct decision st... more Growing evidence in behavioral decision making supports the existence of two distinct decision strategies in uncertain environments, a model-based and a model-free approach. The former relies on the construction of an exhaustive model of the environment, while the latter does not grasp the relational complexity underlying contingencies. However, no studies have investigated whether model-based and model-free behaviors express distinct processes of representations generation. In the present study, we investigated the process of representation-building by tracking eye movements of participants who performed a novel relational reasoning task. A cluster analysis on gaze data confirmed the existence of two distinct types of participant that respectively expressed model-based and model-free representation processes. Model-based agents systematically searched for the higher-order relations characterizing the environment, while model-free agents encoded simple rules without exploring the underlying relational complexity. Analyses of individual cognitive measures revealed that cognitive reflection is associated with the emergence of either model-based or model-free behavior, while working memory and fluid intelligence sustain maintenance and updating functio ns. Our results reveal the existence of two distinct processes of representation generation and provide new insights about the cognitive mechanisms underlying model-based and model-free behaviors.

(old version) Gaze data reveal individual differences in human representation processes

Gaze data reveal individual differences in relational representation processes

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2019

In our everyday life, we often need to anticipate the potential occurrence of events and their co... more In our everyday life, we often need to anticipate the potential occurrence of events and their consequences. In this context, the way we represent contingencies can determine our ability to adapt to the environment. However, it is not clear how agents encode and organize available knowledge about the future to react to possible states of the world. In the present study, we investigated the process of contingency representation with three eye-tracking experiments. In Experiment 1, we introduced a novel Relational-inference task in which participants had to learn and represent conditional rules regulating the occurrence of interdependent future events. A cluster analysis on early gaze data revealed the existence of two distinct types of encoders. A group of (sophisticated) participants built exhaustive contingency models that explicitly linked states with each of their potential consequences. Another group of (unsophisticated) participants simply learned binary conditional rules without exploring the underlying relational complexity. Analyses of individual cognitive measures revealed that cognitive reflection is associated with the emergence of either sophisticated or unsophisticated representation behavior. In Experiment 2, we observed that unsophisticated participants switched towards the sophisticated strategy after having received information about its existence, suggesting that representation behavior was modulated by strategy generation mechanisms. In Experiment 3, we showed that the heterogeneity in representation strategy emerges also in conditional reasoning with verbal sequences, indicating the existence of a general disposition in building either sophisticated or unsophisticated models of contingencies.

Download

Does exposure to alternative decision rules change gaze patterns and behavioral strategies in games?

Journal of the Economic Science Association, 2019

We run an eye-tracking experiment to investigate whether players change their gaze patterns and c... more We run an eye-tracking experiment to investigate whether players change their gaze patterns and choices after they experience alternative models of choice in one-shot games. In phase 1 and 3, participants play 2 × 2 matrix games with a human counterpart; in phase 2, they apply specific decision rules while playing with a computer with known behavior. We classify participants in types based on their gaze patterns in phase 1 and explore attentional shifts in phase 3, after players were exposed to the alternative decision rules. Results show that less sophisticated players, who focus mainly on their own payoffs, change their gaze patterns towards the evaluation of others' incentives in phase 3. This attentional shift predicts an increase in equilibrium responses in relevant classes of games. Conversely, cooperative players do not change their visual analysis. Our results shed new light on theories of bounded rationality and on theories of social preferences.

Download

The Role of Intelligence in Social Learning

Scientific Reports, 2018

Studies in cultural evolution have uncovered many types of social learning strategies that are ad... more Studies in cultural evolution have uncovered many types of social learning strategies that are adaptive in certain environments. The efficiency of these strategies also depends on the individual characteristics of both the observer and the demonstrator. We investigate the relationship between intelligence and the ways social and individual information is utilised to make decisions in an uncertain environment. We measure fluid intelligence and study experimentally how individuals learn from observing the choices of a demonstrator in a 2-armed bandit problem with changing probabilities of a reward. Participants observe a demonstrator with high or low fluid intelligence. In some treatments they are aware of the intelligence score of the demonstrator and in others they are not. Low fluid intelligence individuals imitate the demonstrator more when her fluid intelligence is known than when it is not. Conversely, individuals with high fluid intelligence adjust their use of social information, as the observed behaviour changes, independently of the knowledge of the intelligence of the demonstrator. We provide evidence that intelligence determines how social and individual information is integrated in order to make choices in a changing uncertain environment.

Download

Testing the level of consistency between choices and beliefs in games using eye-tracking

Games and Economic Behavior, 2018

We use eye-tracking technique to test whether players' actions are consistent with their expectat... more We use eye-tracking technique to test whether players' actions are consistent with their expectations of their opponent's behavior. Participants play a series of two-player 3 by 3 one shot games and state their beliefs about which actions they expect their counterpart to play (first-order beliefs) or about which actions their counterparts expect them to play (second-order beliefs). We perform a mixed model cluster analysis and classify participants into types according to both their attentional patterns of visual information acquisition and choices. Players classified as strategic (Level-2 players) and players classified as having other-regarding preferences like Inequity aversion and Prosociality exhibit patterns of visual attention and choices that are mainly consistent with their stated beliefs. Conversely, players classified as non-strategic (Level-1, Pessimistic, Optimistic and Competitive) do not best respond to any specific belief, but apply simple decision rules regardless of whether they are playing or stating their beliefs. Thus, using eye-tracking data we could identify a larger consistency between actions and stated beliefs compared with previous studies, and we could characterize the behavioral rules associated with choice-beliefs inconsistency. Implications for the theories of bounded rationality are discussed.

Download

luca polonio

Uploads

Papers by luca polonio

Log In