Terrance Quinn

Space Oddity: the Mission for Spatial Integration

by Aaron Berger, Daniel Goethel, Patrick Lynch - NOAA Federal, Terrance Quinn, Sophie Mormede, and Jeremy McKenzie

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science, 2017

Fishery management decisions are commonly guided by stock assessment models that aggregate output... more Fishery management decisions are commonly guided by stock assessment models that aggregate outputs across the spatial domain of the species. With refined understanding of spatial population structures, scientists have begun to address how spatiotemporal mismatches among the scale of ecological processes, data collection programs, and stock assessment methods (or assumptions) influence the reliability, and ultimately, appropriateness of regional fishery management (e.g., assigning regional quotas). Development and evaluation of spatial modeling techniques to improve fisheries assessment and management have increased rapidly in recent years. We overview the historical context of spatial models in fisheries science, highlight recent advances in spatial modeling, and discuss how spatial models have been incorporated into the management process. Despite limited examples where spatial assessment models are used as the basis for management advice, continued investment in fine-scale data collection and associated spatial analyses will improve integration of spatial dynamics and ecosystem-level interactions in stock assessment. In the near future, spatiotemporal fisheries management advice will increasingly rely on fine-scale outputs from spatial analyses.

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Incorporating Spatial Structure in Stock Assessment: Movement Modeling in Marine Fish Population Dynamics

by Terrance Quinn, Daniel Goethel, and Steven Cadrin

Investigations into population structure have been at the forefront of fisheries research for dec... more Investigations into population structure have been at the forefront of fisheries research for decades, yet it is generally ignored
in stock assessmentmodels. As the complex nature ofmarine population structure has been uncovered, models have attempted
to accurately portray it through the development of spatially explicit assessments that allow for movement between subpopulations.
Although current tag-integrated movement models are highly complex, many arose from the relatively simple
models of Beverton and Holt (1957). This article traces the historical development of these models and compares their
features. Originally estimation of movement utilized only tag-recapture models, but now tag-integrated assessment models
incorporate several sources of fishery, survey, and tag-recapture information to inform movement estimates. As spatial
management measures become more widely used, it is increasingly important that assessment models include the spatial
complexities of population structure and patterns of fishery removals, in order for more reliable monitoring of population
rebuilding to take place. A generalized metapopulation model is proposed for use in fisheries stock assessment, which allows
for adult movement among spatially discrete sub-populations. The input requirements for the model include region-specific
catch-at-age, a tag-recapture dataset, and auxiliary information, such as a fishery-independent abundance index.

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The effect of organohalogen contaminants on western Steller sea lion survival and movement in the Russian Far East

by Adam Zaleski, Vladimir Burkanov, and Terrance Quinn

The Science of the total environment, Jan 15, 2014

The western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have experienced dramatic declines si... more The western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have experienced dramatic declines since the 1960s, particularly in the western Alaskan and Asian portions, which have continued to decline or stabilized at low levels. Multiple causes for this decline have been proposed and may include anthropogenic contamination from organohalogen contaminants (OCs). These include polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which have not been ruled out as a potential cause for the lack of recovery. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of OCs on survival and movement probabilities estimated in program MARK using resighting data collected from 2003 to 2009. PCBs and DDTs were measured in whole blood from 136 (74 males and 62 females) individually marked, free-ranging pups from four Russian Far East rookeries. The mean concentration of ∑PCB and ∑DDT was 4.25±5.12 and 3.22±4.28 ng g(-1) ww (n=136), respectively, and the average ∑PCB and ∑DDT concentration for those above the aggregate mean (n=44) was 9.25±6.55 and 7.65±5.21 ng g(-1) ww, and those below the aggregate mean (n=92) the concentration was 1.86±0.89 and 1.11±0.65 ng g(-1) ww, respectively. The lowest estimated probabilities of survival occurred in the first year, ranging from 38% to 74%, but increased for ages 1-9, ranging from 82% to 94%. The greatest movement occurred from Medny Island west toward the Kamchatka Peninsula (33%) and to Bering Island (18%), and low movement estimates for other natal rookeries was largely due to minimal resighting effort. The estimated probabilities of resighting varied by location (48%-87%), but had greater precision than survival or movement parameters. Survival and movement were most affected by age and location rather than OCs.

MOVEMENTS AND POPULATION STRUCTURE OF HUMPBACK WHALES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC

by Jan Straley, Salvatore Cerchio, Sally Mizroch, and Terrance Quinn

Marine Mammal Science, 2001

Despite the extensive use of photographic identification methods to investigate humpback whales i... more

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Abundance and population structure of humpback whales in the North Pacific basin

by Manami Yamaguchi, Jorge Urbán, Sally Mizroch, and Terrance Quinn

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A multispecies age-structured assessment model for the Gulf of Alaska

by Kray Van Kirk and Terrance Quinn

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2010

Abstract: Predation is the largest source of mortality for marine fish and may be an important pr... more

A Feeding Aggregation of Humpback Whales Megaptera Novaeangliae near Kodiak Island, Alaska: Historical and Current Abundance Estimation

by Terrance Quinn and Briana Witteveen

A photo-identification, mark-recapture study was conducted on a feeding aggregation

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Using Acoustics to Evaluate the Effect of Fishing on School Characteristics of Walleye Pollock

Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is the target of one of the world's largest fisheries... more Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is the target of one of the world's largest fisheries and is an important prey species in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem. Little is known about the potential effects of fishing on the school characteristics and spatial distribution of walleye pollock. Few dedicated research surveys have been conducted during pollock fishing seasons, so analysis of fishery data is the only feasible approach to study these potential effects. We used acoustic data col - lected continuously by one fishing vessel in January-February 2003, which operated north of Unimak Island. Results from comparisons between two fishing periods showed significant changes of pollock distribution at different scales. The schools were smaller and denser during the second period. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of schools became sparser, as evidenced by the lower frequency of schools per elementary distance sampling unit and the increase in average

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Sustainability in single-species population models

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, Jan 29, 2005

In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-struc... more In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods. The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, F(MSY), which results in MSY, and a higher value, F(ext), for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and F(ext), there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achievi...

Van Kirk, K.F., T.J. Quinn II, J.S. Collie, and Z.T. A’mar. 2012. Multispecies Age-Structured Assessment for Groundfish and Sea Lions in Alaska. In: G.H. Kruse, H.I. Browman, K.L. Cochrane, D. Evans, G.S. Jamieson, P.A. Livingston, D. Woodby, and C.I. Zhang (eds.), Global Progress in Ecosystem-Ba...

by Terrance Quinn and Kray Van Kirk

The current push towards ecosystem-based fisheries management, in conjunction with the limited ap... more The current push towards ecosystem-based fisheries management, in conjunction with the limited application of current multispecies models in that context, outlines the need for a more holistic approach that explicitly includes age-structured species interactions. To meet this need, a multispecies age-structured assessment model (MSASA) for the Gulf of Alaska was expanded from three species: arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), and walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), to include two major high trophic level predators as external inputs: Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) and Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). Inclusion of the large predators resulted in increased predation on older prey ages, including those fully recruited into the commercial fishery. Significant changes to trophic structures and predation linkages from the core model were observed. Estimation of residual natural mortality M0 was achieved through modification o...

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The effect of organohalogen contaminants on western Steller sea lion survival and movement in the Russian Far East

by Terrance Quinn, Vladimir Burkanov, and Shannon Atkinson

The Science of the total environment, Jan 15, 2014

The western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have experienced dramatic declines si... more The western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have experienced dramatic declines since the 1960s, particularly in the western Alaskan and Asian portions, which have continued to decline or stabilized at low levels. Multiple causes for this decline have been proposed and may include anthropogenic contamination from organohalogen contaminants (OCs). These include polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which have not been ruled out as a potential cause for the lack of recovery. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of OCs on survival and movement probabilities estimated in program MARK using resighting data collected from 2003 to 2009. PCBs and DDTs were measured in whole blood from 136 (74 males and 62 females) individually marked, free-ranging pups from four Russian Far East rookeries. The mean concentration of ∑PCB and ∑DDT was 4.25±5.12 and 3.22±4.28 ng g(-1) ww (n=136), respectively, and the average ∑PCB and ∑DD...

Reparameterizing, Fitting, and Testing a Simple Growth Model

by Terrance Quinn and VF Gallucci

Transactions of The American Fisheries Society, 1979

If the von Bertalanffy growth model is used to statistically compare the properties of growth in ... more If the von Bertalanffy growth model is used to statistically compare the properties of growth in two spatial regions by examination of the estimates of the growth parameter k and the asymptotic length parameter L•, a possible compound null hypothesis H 0, is H0: kt = k2 and L• t = L•2 for regions 1 and 2. Since the results of this two-parameter test may be difficult to interpret, an alternative procedure is suggested. In addition, the interpretation of the test must be based upon the nature of the data as well as upon the parameter estimates. A regression fit of the model to real but "inappropriate" data may yield a very "good" statistical fit but unrealistic estimates. The use of a third parameter (for example, to, the time when length is zero) is necessary to uniquely specify a solution; its inclusion always enhances the statistical fit. Because of the interdependence between parameters k and L=, we reparameterize the von Bertalanffy model with a new parameter •o = k.L•. The parameter corresponds to the growth rate near to and is suitable for comparisons because of its statistical robustness. In general, the standard Ford-Walford method of estimating the model's parameters is now obsolete and should be replaced with widely available nonlinear regression programs. Such programs generally estimate a variety of statistical criteria that facilitate a quantitative comparison of the growth parameters in H0 above. A •nathe•natical •nodel is an idealized representation of a phenomenon such that the disadvantages of excessive abstraction are balanced against an overabundance of detail. Aside from the vagaries implied by such a balance, additional irresolvable difficulties may arise in the processes of statistically fitting (evaluating the model's parameters) and testing even simple models.

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