Conclusion: The Big History of Globalization Told in Ten Pages
World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures, 2019
Numerous approaches to studying globalization co-exist in global research of the phenomenon, whic... more Numerous approaches to studying globalization co-exist in global research of the phenomenon, which is perfectly understandable, as the multitude of its manifestations permeate nearly all spheres of human life from the individual level to the whole world. In this book we choose to view the history of globalization along the Big History lines, tracing the increasing complexity of trans-border interactions and flows paralleled by the emergence and spread of global institutions and processes. In this chapter, which concludes the book, we challenge ourselves with fitting the first four periods of the history of globalization (from its earliest signs coming with the Neolithic Revolution to the first “golden age” of globalization in the decades prior to World War I) and their major innovations and watersheds into ten pages.
The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolutio... more The present article is devoted to the issue of unity of laws, patterns and mechanisms of evolution at all its stages and levels and also to the place of social evolution in the single and universal process of universal evolution or mega-evolution. Despite the enormous differences between cosmic, planetological, chemical, biological, and social evolutions, there are many similarities. Unfortunately, quite a few works are devoted to their identification. In the present article we will consider a number of such important similarities, which, in our opinion, clearly demonstrate the systemic-structural and functional-evolutionary unity of the world at its different levels and in different areas. The understanding of these similarities deepens our perception of social evolution and its regularities, and leads us away from the false idea that social evolution in all aspects is different from the evolution of previous levels. In the first section our key goal is to give our own definitions of evolution and social evolution which would cover as many variants of evolutionary changes as possible. In the second section we tried to give a rather voluminous and dialectical picture of the unfolding universal evolution instead of a primitive scheme: cosmic – biological – social. There introduce notions of main and transitional phases of universal evolution and show the importance of its planetological and chemical phases. In the third section we show that one can reveal a number of similarities at all levels and phases of mega-evolution, which can be generalized in uni-versal laws, rules, mechanisms, patterns and principles of evolution. One should note that in fact none of the important laws and principles as well as none of important rules of evolution have been ‘lost’ in the process of moving from lower to higher levels. They were only modified and became more complicated, and there also appeared some new principles and rules (in retrospect one can see their rudiments at the lowest levels of evolution). Some of these laws and rules are described in this section. In the fourth section we will try to present some evolutionary and philosophical ideas that explain the profound similarity in the laws and patterns of mega-evolution at all its levels and phases. In the Conclusion we discuss evolutionary and non-evolutionary matter.
The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from si... more The idea that our Universe emerged as a result of the extraordinary power of the Big Bang from singularity (i.e., a state of an infinitely small quantity and infinitely high concentration of matter) is still very popular today. It was one of the main postulates of the Big Bang theory that completely formed in the 1960s–1970s. However, at present this idea as well as the Big Bang theory is outdated, although it is still shared by many scientists. Being widespread since the end of the 1970s the Inflation theory appears more modern. The main reason for the emergence of the Inflation theory was that the Big Bang theory could not satisfactorily explain a number of the contemporary parameters of the Universe. The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future... more In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future” (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World.
The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of poli... more The stability of socio-political systems and the risks of destabi-lisation in the process of political transformation are among the most important issues of social development; the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of a respective socio-political system. This article studies the issue of democratisation. It highlights the high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy for countries unprepared for it—democracy resulting from revolutions or similar large-scale events. The authors believe that in a number of cases authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms than emerging democracies, especially those of a revolutionary type, which are often incapable of ensuring social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of transition to an efficient and stable democracy. Using historical and contemporary examples, particularly the recent events in Egypt, the article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and the possibility of establishing democracy in a society.
Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has... more Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.
The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insuffici... more The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities stem from the fact that in both cases we are dealing with very complex non-equilibrium (but rather stable) systems whose principles of functioning and evolution are described by the General Systems' Theory, as well as by a number of cybernetic principles and laws. Secondly, in both cases we do not deal with isolated systems; in both cases we deal with a complex interaction between systems of organic systems and external environment, whereas the reaction of systems to external challenges can be described in terms of certain general principles (that, however, express themselves rather differently within the biological reality, on the one hand, and within the social reality, on the other).
This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. ... more This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global History & Big History. The point is that today our global world really demands global knowledge. Thus, there are a few actively developing multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes.
Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространств... more Данная книга продолжает публикацию «Исторической глобалистики» – первого в российском пространстве и одного из первых в мире трудов по этой тематике, рассматривающего историю формирования глобального связанного мира, а также значимых на глобальном уровне явлений и процессов. Во втором томе этот подход применяется для изучения «долгого XIX века» – периода бурных технологических, социальных, экономических, политических и иных трансформаций глобального мира. Особое внимание уделяется так называемому «золотому веку глобализации» – периоду в конце XIX и начале XX в., когда финансовая, торговая и миграционная связанность глобального мира достигла невиданного прежде масштаба.
The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography,
Culture... more The present Yearbook (which is the sixth in the series) is subtitled Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words, ‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales – from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics, Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the studies of different spheres and epochs. This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III) Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations). We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populati... more Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populations increase and decline, economies expand and contract, while states grow and collapse. How can we study mechanisms that bring about temporal change and explain the observed trajectories? A very common approach, which has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly, but not exclusively, in the natural sciences), consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and mentally splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. This is the dynamical systems approach, because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system consisting of several interacting elements (or subsystems).
In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and
differences between biologic... more In the first part of this article we survey general similarities and differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical model capable of describing important features of both biological and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This is more or less identical with the working of the collective learning mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества)., 2012
Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной... more Перед вами Хрестоматия, которая называется Универсальная и глобальная история (эволюция Вселенной, Земли, жизни и общества). «Универсальная и глобальная история» – это история универсума (Вселенной), насколько ее может реконструировать современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to
the question, ‘Wha... more This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System? Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen? How can national sovereignty be transformed?
Историческая психология и социология истории, 2017
В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Р... more В 2017 году исполнилось не только сто лет со дня революции 1917 года, но также 500-летие начала Реформации в Германии. Именно с Реформации можно начинать отсчет современных революций в Европе и в мире. В первой части статьи анализируются линии трансформации революций в ходе исторического процесса, в частности то, как изменялись на протяжении этих столетий их всемирно-историческая роль, социальные базы, революционные идеологии, практики, используемые ими информационные технологии. Показано, какие важные изменения в революционные практики и в само понимание сущности революции были внесены каждой крупной революцией. Во второй части статьи также освещаются некоторые вопросы, связанные с теорией революции,в частности, дается классификация типов революций, начиная от религиозных и заканчивая модернизационными, отмечены некоторые важные условия возникновения революций. В заключении мы рассмотрим вопрос о том, как и почему революции с определенного момента все активнее используются как геополитическое оружие. The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.
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Papers by Leonid Grinin
The Inflation theory makes still widespread views of the Big Bang theory archaic, in particular as regards the following points: 1) the history of the Universe started with the Big Bang; 2) it started with the singularity. According to the Inflation theory, the Big Bang was not the beginning and the moment of the origin of the Universe, but it was preceded by at least two epochs: inflation and post-inflationary heating. That is, the Big Bang or precisely the hot Big Bang is just a phase transition from the state of cold inflation to the hot phase. Since the Inflation theory does not consider the Big Bang as the initial phase there emerges an intricate problem of the role of the Big Bang in the process of the formation the Universe as a whole. The paper considers the confusion with the Big Bang notion, a number and sequence of ‘bangs’ and why the theory can dispense easily without the notion the Big Bang. We will also discuss some advantages and disadvantages of the Inflation theory.
this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar
historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century
Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of
the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World
System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus,
we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems
of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In
otherwords,within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag
far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase,
the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also
suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political
component started in the Arab World.
and its important consequences for particular societies and the whole
world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological
breakthrough is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as
the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s – 2030s we will expect
the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce
the sixth technological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological
changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine
and related technologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments
that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing
elderly population in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful
use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees)
of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing
countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the
developed states.
multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history
which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and
of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic
and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and
Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multidisciplinary
approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to
form a global view of various processes.
Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations. To some extent it reveals the extraordinary potential
of scientific research. The common feature of all our Yearbooks, including the present
volume, is the usage of formal methods and social studies methods in their synthesis
to analyze different phenomena. In other words, if to borrow Alexander Pushkin's words,
‘to verify the algebra with harmony’. One should note that publishing in a single collection
the articles that apply mathematical methods to the study of various epochs and scales –
from deep historical reconstruction to the pressing problems of the modern world – reflects
our approach to the selection of contributions for the Yearbook. History and Mathematics,
Social Studies and formal methods, as previously noted, can bring nontrivial results in the
studies of different spheres and epochs.
This issue consists of three main sections: (I) Historical and Technological Dimensions
includes two papers (the first is about the connection between genes, myths and waves of the
peopling of Americas; the second one is devoted to quantitative analysis of innovative activity
and competition in technological sphere in the Middle Ages and Modern Period); (II) Economic
and Cultural Dimensions (the contributions are mostly focused on modern period); (III)
Modeling and Theories includes two papers with interesting models (the first one concerns
modeling punctuated equilibria apparent in the macropattern of urbanization over time; in the
second one the author attempts to estimate the number of Communicative Civilizations).
We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians,
as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
differences between biological and social macroevolution. In the
second (and main) part, we consider a concrete mathematical
model capable of describing important features of both biological
and social macroevolution. In mathematical models of historical
macrodynamics, a hyperbolic pattern of world population growth
arises from non-linear, second-order positive feedback between
demographic growth and technological development. This is more
or less identical with the working of the collective learning
mechanism. Based on diverse paleontological data and an analogy
with macrosociological models, we suggest that the hyperbolic
character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by
non-linear, second-order positive feedback between diversity
growth and the complexity of community structure, suggesting
the presence within the biosphere of a certain analogue of the
collective learning mechanism. We discuss how such positive
feedback mechanisms can be modelled mathematically.
современная наука и история земного шара (от лат. globus – шар), жизни и человечества.
the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the
proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic
characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast
certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the
following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the
World System centre mean? Will there be a leader in the future World System?
Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmentation continue to worsen?
How can national sovereignty be transformed?
The year 2017 was marked not only by the 100th anniversary of the Russian revolution but also by five hundred years passed from the start of the Reformation in Germany. It is just from the Reformation that one can account for revolutions in Europe and world. The first part of the article analyzes the range of transformations of revolutions in the course of historical development; in particular, the ways their role in the world history, social basis, revolutionary ideologies and practices and used information means would change over these centuries. It is also shown which important changes in revolutionary practices and the very essence of revolution were brought by every great revolution. While considering these aspects and also in the second part of the article the author touches some issues connected with the theory of revolutions. In particular, the author classifies revolutions starting from religious to modernization ones and considers some important causes of revolutions. In the final part, the author speaks about how and why revolutions starting from a certain moment are more actively used as geopolitical means.