Highlights - External Publication by Institute of South Asian Studies NUS
Economic and Political Weekly, 2021
The role of popular media in furthering the politics of the day cannot possibly be underestimated... more The role of popular media in furthering the politics of the day cannot possibly be underestimated. Robin Jeffrey analyses the role that technology has played in Indian elections historically and explores the potential of new digital media powered by 4G enabled phones in elections today.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2021
Charting out the new dimension of politics in Pakistan, Iqbal Singh Sevea describes the rise of t... more Charting out the new dimension of politics in Pakistan, Iqbal Singh Sevea describes the rise of the new political party, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, with its leader, Khadim Hussain Rizvi, openly supportive of a fundamentalist form of Islam. He encouraged supporters to organise protests against blasphemous acts. On the other hand, Islamic intellectuals such as Javed Ahmad Ghamidi preach a more liberal form of Islam. With the recent death of Rizvi, it remains to be seen in which direction politics in Pakistan will move.
INDIA & DIGITAL WORLDMAKING a symposium on India and the global governance of technology: The problem
Seminar Magazine, 2020
KARTHIK NACHIAPPAN and ARINDRAJIT BASU
RAPID globalization of firms and markets has inexorabl... more KARTHIK NACHIAPPAN and ARINDRAJIT BASU
RAPID globalization of firms and markets has inexorably accelerated through technology. As was the case in previous eras of globalization, countries will have to devise new governance mechanisms, rules and standards to regulate new patterns of technological interactions between states and non-state actors alike. Traditional rules are being questioned, reframed and broken. Private actors, both multinational corporations and ‘cyber mercenaries’ are acquiring increasing importance and relevance. Existing and emerging international regimes and frameworks are under pressure to mobilize countries to create rules to address problems wrought by new technologies related to artificial intelligence, big data, social media, automation, drones, autonomous weapons and malware incursions.
Insights by Institute of South Asian Studies NUS
The emphatic victory of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the West Bengal Assembly election ... more The emphatic victory of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the West Bengal Assembly election ushered in a third term for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The TMC's win was comprehensive, with Mamata's popularity, the government's welfare schemes and women's vote being important factors. The result was a blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had raised the stakes in the election outcome, with the prime minister and home minister expending considerable energy in the campaign. The result has burnished Mamata's credentials and dented the BJP and the prime minister's image in the short run.
The imposition of a complete lockdown by the Indian government in March 2020 to prevent a rise in... more The imposition of a complete lockdown by the Indian government in March 2020 to prevent a rise in COVID-19 infections has had a substantial impact on the country's economy and health. Over the past one year, a large proportion of Indians, mainly the socioeconomically marginalised, have found it difficult to find jobs, feed their families and access basic healthcare. To address these problems, the government has taken a variety of measures, including the introduction of new policies in the 2021 Budget. The efficacy of these initiatives, however, is yet to be seen.
As it looks towards a post COVID-19 world, Sri Lanka, with its strategic location in the Indian O... more As it looks towards a post COVID-19 world, Sri Lanka, with its strategic location in the Indian Ocean, faces the stark policy choice of either tilting towards China or balancing its ties with the great powers. While China's successful pandemic diplomacy and commercial focus has made it economically important, it is timely for the island nation to reap additional rewards by following a more nuanced and balanced posture in its relations with China, the United States and India.
The recent bomb attack on former President Mohamed Nasheed clearly indicates that radical groups ... more The recent bomb attack on former President Mohamed Nasheed clearly indicates that radical groups are actively advancing their position in the Maldives. Radical ideology has strengthened itself in the Maldives and has, in the recent past, been assisted by state institutions. To deal with the extreme elements and radicalism in the Maldives, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's government took several steps. However, these have not been effective in dealing with the menace.
Nepal's Prime Minister K P Oli lost a confidence vote in the House of Representatives on 10 May 2... more Nepal's Prime Minister K P Oli lost a confidence vote in the House of Representatives on 10 May 2021. Nepal has two options: provide the opportunity for another alliance or opt for snap polls. At present, no alliance enjoys a majority, and even if some parties come together and form a government, it is difficult to say if they will win the confidence of the House. The next parliamentary election is in 2022. Given the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic, it would be unwise to conduct elections at this point.
Recent threats by China to curb exports of rare earths have highlighted the vulnerability many co... more Recent threats by China to curb exports of rare earths have highlighted the vulnerability many countries face when importing these strategically important minerals. It has prompted like-minded countries like India and Australia, along with their Quad partners, to explore new avenues of partnership to counter Beijing's monopoly. This paper analyses the geopolitical and geoeconomics influences impacting the supply chains of rare earths.
State election results in May 2021 have thrown up very decisive mandates. The public seems to hav... more State election results in May 2021 have thrown up very decisive mandates. The public seems to have vested its trust in parties led by tall local personalities. These leaders seem to enjoy unrivalled authority within their state organisations. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Kerala, the Trinamool Congress in Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, have thrown up leaders who are capable of holding their own vis-à-vis the party outfit. Does this herald an era where individuals will hold the sway over political parties and where these organisations will have to reinvent their decision making processes? We need to observe how these leaders perform.
On 19 April 2021, the European Union (EU) released the 'EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-P... more On 19 April 2021, the European Union (EU) released the 'EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific'. This strategy, encapsulated in a 10-page document, is the first of its kind, representing a common EU approach to the Indo-Pacific. It is a testament by the EU to the increasing geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific region. Following its European partners, the regional bloc is also looking to assume greater responsibility for regional and maritime security. This paper examines the new EU Strategy, the strategic convergence between the EU and India, and the prospects and challenges for EU-India relations.
This insight explores the responses of the South Asian states to the coup that took place in Myan... more This insight explores the responses of the South Asian states to the coup that took place in Myanmar on 1 February 2021, the resistance movement that followed and the Rohingya crisis which is intertwined with the coup. While there is a recognition that these states need to uphold their democratic norms and ideals in diplomatic statements against the coup, national and realpolitik interests have been prioritised over condemning the military for its violent crackdowns.
Executive Summary Sri Lanka is passing through an unprecedented constitutional and political cris... more Executive Summary Sri Lanka is passing through an unprecedented constitutional and political crisis precipitated by President Maithripala Sirisena's unexpected moves. At the core of this crisis are serious differences and conflicts between the President and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, rooted in ideological, governance and personality related issues. There does not appear to be any smooth political resolution of this crisis. Fresh elections promise a better way out but do not appear to be politically and constitutionally feasible at the moment. The Sri Lankan people and the international community can only hope to see a more purposeful and stable Sri Lanka emerging from this crisis.
Executive Summary Five Indian states have their elections between 12 November and 7 December 2018... more Executive Summary Five Indian states have their elections between 12 November and 7 December 2018. The results for all the states will be declared on 11 December 2018. The poll-bound states are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in north and central India, Telangana in south India and Mizoram in the northeast. The elections in the three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are particularly important since, in the 2014 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 61 out of the combined 65 parliamentary seats in these states. All three states will also largely see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. Hence, the results are likely to provide indicators for the results in the 2019 general elections. Opinion polls predict that the BJP will be voted out in Rajasthan while the contests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to be close, with the BJP having a slight edge. The election in Telangana could also prove to be tight with the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi being challenged by an alliance of the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party. In Mizoram, the only northeastern state governed by the Congress, the regional Mizo National Front could be voted to power.
Executive Summary The Donald Trump administration in the United States (US) has expanded its arti... more Executive Summary The Donald Trump administration in the United States (US) has expanded its articulation of a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' (FOIP) region by announcing strategic investments and economic cooperation. India and Japan are fundamental to the realisation of the US vision of the region. For India and Japan, however, a deeper commitment to the US vision would depend on several factors. These include the prospects of the FOIP becoming a security-oriented strategy to counter China, as opposed to a regional connectivity programme; avoiding the legitimacy issues encountered by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and acquiring an inclusive character. The BRI has been inviting considerable criticism for pushing countries into debt traps and extracting strategic concessions for infrastructure funds. Coupled with developments like the revival of the 'Quad' Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the US, the FOIP has the possibility of becoming a security-centric anti-China initiative. This would be to the discomfort of India and Japan, which would hesitate to take sides. Both countries would also wish for greater economic legitimacy and vision of a broader regional economic order from the FOIP, as opposed to it being an initiative for expanding US commercial presence in the region. Notwithstanding announcements of regional infrastructure investments and cooperation efforts, India's repeated emphasis on an 'inclusive' FOIP, Japan's decision to selectively engage with the BRI and their respective geopolitical approaches to the region and strategies towards China, will decide their commitment to the FOIP. However, staying engaged in the FOIP can give both an opportunity of enhancing geo-political and geo-economic contribution through an agenda of regional connectivity.
Executive Summary The construction of the Kartarpur Corridor has been widely hailed for the openi... more Executive Summary The construction of the Kartarpur Corridor has been widely hailed for the opening of a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations. Many hope that the goodwill generated by the corridor and the increased people-to-people contact it will generate could lead to better diplomatic relations between the two countries. Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has even suggested that the corridor could mark the first step towards greater economic ties between the two countries. The symbolic importance of the Kartarpur Corridor notwithstanding, there are a number of issues that may stymie its long-term impact. Furthermore, there are a number of modalities relating to the corridor itself that have not been spelt out as of yet. This paper examines the significance of the Kartarpur Corridor and the politics that undergirds its construction. It particularly draws attention to the symbolic significance of the corridor; the attempts to employ religious diplomacy as a means towards developing better diplomatic and trade relations; and the factors that have motivated the various players involved in its development. The paper also analyses the issues and challenges that have to be resolved before the corridor can be opened. These include the types of regime of permits and regulations to be put in place; concerns over the threat of terrorist infiltration and Pakistani support for Sikh separatism; and the demand for Indian consular access to pilgrims in Pakistan.
East Asia Forum Quarterly: Volume 12, Number 1, 2020
It was one thing to move forward with the United States but entirely another to publicly flaunt t... more It was one thing to move forward with the United States but entirely another to publicly flaunt the bonhomie with Washington
ISAS Insights, 2020
The Indian government has formally announced the creation of the post of the Chief of Defence Sta... more The Indian government has formally announced the creation of the post of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). This appointment had been recommended by many committees, the most significant of which was the one after the Kargil operations against Pakistan. The CDS is expected to provide a single point of advice to the government on all tri-service matters and serve as the permanent chairman of the chiefs of staff committee. He will also head the Department of Military Affairs in the Ministry of Defence. The appointment is expected to provide synergy in the functioning of the three services and bring about better coordination in training and other capital acquisition plans.
ISAS Insights, 2020
A key challenge facing the new Maharashtra government is the urgent need to deal with the "climat... more A key challenge facing the new Maharashtra government is the urgent need to deal with the "climate emergency" in the state. A number of studies and reports on the impact of climate change have shown that if appropriate steps are not taken now, Maharashtra could face serious economic consequences in the near future.
ISAS Insights, 2020
India has been engulfed with large-scale protests for over a month in the wake of the enactment o... more India has been engulfed with large-scale protests for over a month in the wake of the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in December 2019, which grants special privileges to non-Muslim refugees from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh for the acquisition of Indian citizenship. While the protests will likely continue for a while, it is unlikely that the government will concede much. However, it is the longer-term impact of the protests, especially in terms of India's international standing and federal relations, that should be a cause for concern.
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Highlights - External Publication by Institute of South Asian Studies NUS
RAPID globalization of firms and markets has inexorably accelerated through technology. As was the case in previous eras of globalization, countries will have to devise new governance mechanisms, rules and standards to regulate new patterns of technological interactions between states and non-state actors alike. Traditional rules are being questioned, reframed and broken. Private actors, both multinational corporations and ‘cyber mercenaries’ are acquiring increasing importance and relevance. Existing and emerging international regimes and frameworks are under pressure to mobilize countries to create rules to address problems wrought by new technologies related to artificial intelligence, big data, social media, automation, drones, autonomous weapons and malware incursions.
Insights by Institute of South Asian Studies NUS