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Paul Mukwaya

Makerere University, Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climate Sciences, Graduate Student

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Papers by Paul Mukwaya

Pastoral adaptation strategies to climate change in selected areas of the cattle corridor of Uganda

Second RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference on "Building capacity for food security in Africa", Entebbe, Uganda, 20-24 September 2010, 2010

Pastoralists' communities have been able to cope in various ways to climate change stresses. Howe... more Pastoralists' communities have been able to cope in various ways to climate change stresses. However, little is known of these coping practices. This study examined the major climatic stresses in the past three decades amongst agro-pastoralists, their drivers, and community and institutional responses to the changes in the cattle corridor of Uganda. The research was purely qualitative and methods used were focused group discussions and structured questionnaires. The major climatic shocks identified were prolonged and increased frequency of droughts, disease out breaks such as foot and mouth disease, and bovine contagious disease.

Effect of land-use and climate change and variability on pollution loading in rivers of eastern Uganda and Albertine rift

Second RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference on "Building capacity for food security in Africa", Entebbe, Uganda, 20-24 September 2010, 2010

Spatial-temporal variability in groundwater abstraction across Uganda: Implications to sustainable water resources management

AGUFM, Dec 1, 2017

Assessment of spatio-temporal redistribution of major crops and livestock mobility due to climate change and variability in Uganda

Second RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference on "Building capacity for food security in Africa", Entebbe, Uganda, 20-24 September 2010, 2010

Vegetation Biomass Prediction in the Cattle Corridor of Uganda

African Crop Science Journal, Nov 21, 2012

Pastoralists in Sub-Saharan Africa face complex problems notably frequent and severe droughts. Th... more Pastoralists in Sub-Saharan Africa face complex problems notably frequent and severe droughts. This study was conducted in the cattle corridor of Uganda, a largely semiarid area to estimate the likely vegetative biomass production under the 2071-2100 projected rainfall conditions. Spatio-temporal pattern of vegetative biomass production were determined by analysis of the seasonal variation of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 10 years from 2001-2010. A biomass relationship was established between the NDVI and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI); and used to project the period 2071-2100 NDVI using downscaled rainfall for the cattle corridor. A change trajectory performed on the annual means revealed the highest increase in vegetation in 2008 (0.031) and decrease in 2009 (-0.022). The SPI revealed two main droughts that were established to have occurred in the years of 2004 -2005 and 2008-2009. The wettest year was 2003 and corresponded with the increase in NDVI. A strong positive correlation of rainfall and vegetation was established (r=0.99). Precipitation has influenced vegetative biomass in the cattle corridor as there is a positive correlation between precipitation and the vegetative biomass production. Secondly, vegetation is likely to be concentrated in areas that will have high precipitation in 2070-2100, such as Luwero and the districts south of it of the cattle corridor compared to those in the north of the cattle corridor of Uganda.

Carbon stock trends in selected agro ecological zones of Uganda

Second RUFORUM Biennial Regional Conference on "Building capacity for food security in Africa", Entebbe, Uganda, 20-24 September 2010, 2010

This study determined the trend in carbon densities and stocks from major land uses/covers of sem... more This study determined the trend in carbon densities and stocks from major land uses/covers of semi arid and sub humid areas of Uganda. Carbon densities were estimated from soils and woody biomass pools of the major homogenous units in terms of land-use/cover, topography and soil. In Soroti, preliminary results show that the carbon density was generally highest in soil than in above ground wood plants (P<0.05). The highest carbon density was observed under woodland (248.2Mg/ha) and fallow (213.1 mg/ha), followed by grazing land (173.2 mg/ ha) and annuals (167.66 mg/ha); and the lowest was observed under perennial agriculture (Orchard) (56.6 mg/ha) (P<0.05).

Application of a Bayesian network modelling approach to predict the cascading effects of COVID-19 restrictions on the planting activities of smallholder farmers in Uganda

Agricultural Systems

Bayesian belief network modelling of the challenges associated with hybrid solar-diesel electricity from the end users’ perspective in Bugala Island in Uganda

Background A hybrid solar-diesel energy system (HSDES) was installed on Bugala Island located on ... more Background A hybrid solar-diesel energy system (HSDES) was installed on Bugala Island located on Lake Victioria in Uganda to increase access to clean, affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, which is essential for protecting the environment while improving living conditions, human health, and local economic development. However, the challenges associated with HSDES generated electricity from the end-users’ perspective are still unknown. Since these challenges are complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional, this study aimed at utilizing a Bayesian belief network (BBN) modelling approach to identify, and rank the challenges experienced by energy consumers on the Island in an intergrated format. Methods A cross-sectional research design was employed where a total of 237 randomly selected respondents were involved in this study. Quantitative data were gathered using semi-structured questionnaires. The BBN model was developed basing on well established guidelines and mode...

Bayesian belief network modeling approach for predicting and ranking risk factors for malaria infections among children under five years in refugee settlements in Uganda

Background Malaria risk factors at household level are known to be complex, uncertain, stochastic... more Background Malaria risk factors at household level are known to be complex, uncertain, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. The interplay among these factors, makes targeted interventions, and resource allocation for malaria control challenging. However, few studies have demonstrated malaria’s transmission complexity, control, and integrated modeling, with no available evidence on Uganda’s refugee settlements. Using the 2018–2019 Uganda’s Malaria Indicator Survey (UMIS) data, an alternative Bayesian belief network (BBN) modelling approach was used to analyse, predict, rank and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the risk factors for malaria infections among children under-five in refugee settlements of Uganda. Methods In the UMIS, household level information was obtained using standardized questionnaires, and a total of 675 children under 5 years were tested for malaria. From the dataset, we created a casefile containing malaria test r...

Spatial variations and determinants of childhood diarrhea management in Uganda

African Geographical Review

Correction: Kusiima et al. Interconnectedness of Ecosystem Services Potential with Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics in Western Uganda. Land 2022, 11, 2056

Land, Feb 15, 2023

There was an error in the original publication . The unit for area used is wrong and the sizes of... more There was an error in the original publication . The unit for area used is wrong and the sizes of the Budongo and Bugoma Central Forest Reserves used are inadvertently wrong. A correction has been made to 2. Materials and Methods, 2.1 Study Area on page 4 of 26, from the 4th to the 6th line: "The landscape has LULC classes protected by national legislation totaling approximately 4305.8 Km 2 including inter alia; Budongo CFR (825 Km 2 ), Bugoma CFR (411.42 Km 2 ), Open water (2866.21 Km 2 ).

Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda. Analysis of data from Uganda malaria indicator survey, 2018-19

Background Globally, 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported Uganda which is also one... more Background Globally, 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported Uganda which is also one of the top refugee hosting countries in Africa, with 1.36 million refugees currently. Although malaria is an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. The study analysed data from the 2018-19 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (UMIS) to determine the factors associated with malaria infections among refugee children under five years of age. Methods The analysis was run using the ‘Individual dataset’ of UMIS. The independent variables related to the demographic, social-economic and environmental information on 3,481 refugees spreading across the country. The rapid diagnostics test results was the outcome variable. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of the malaria infections. Results Overall, the prevalence of malaria infections in all refugee settlements across the nine hosting districts was...

Willingness to pay for COVID-19 mitigation measures in public transport and paratransit in low-income countries

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

In order to combat the spread of COVID-19, various measures were taken in most countries to make ... more In order to combat the spread of COVID-19, various measures were taken in most countries to make public transit and paratransit safer. These additional measures, which include restrictions on number of passengers, provision of hand sanitisers and face coverings, and more frequent cleaning, add to the costs of operations or reduce profitability. The resulting financial pressure on the transport operators raises an important question on who pays for these additional measures. In most countries, this has been covered by one-time government bailouts to operators or strategies to increase fare, the latter of which directly affects the users. However, even without these interventions, there could be a demand and as such willingness to pay (WTP) for some of these intervention measures from the consumers concerned about safety. Knowing such WTP will not only help operators set their fare, but also help the governments decide the appropriate bailout needed. This paper addresses the issue by estimating the user's willingness to pay for selected COVID-19 mitigation measures in public transport and paratransit (motorcycle taxis) using survey data collected from two cities in low-income countries as case studies -Kampala, Uganda and Dhaka, Bangladesh. For public transport, these measures are -(1) social distancing (passenger loading at half capacity), and (2) mandatory hand sanitisation and increased cleaning of surfaces, while for paratransit, they are -(1) provision of a transparent shield between the rider and the passenger, and (2) provision of cleaned helmets at the start of each trip. The study analyses stated preference data using the utility maximisation framework and finds that the implementation or provision of COVID-19 mitigation measures improves the attractiveness of the associated public transport or paratransit alternatives, and transport users make trade-offs between safety and cost when making travel decisions. We find positive willingness to pay for all four mitigation measures, suggesting potential existence of a market for these measures. We also find that the typical mode choice factors such as costs, travel time and convenience became less important during the pandemic and the safety measures became more important considerations.

Interconnectedness of Ecosystem Services Potential with Land Use/Land Cover Change Dynamics in Western Uganda

Land

Understanding the evolution of land use/land cover change (LULCC) and how it shapes current and f... more Understanding the evolution of land use/land cover change (LULCC) and how it shapes current and future ecosystem services (ES) supply potential remains critical in sustainable natural resource management. Community perception of historic LULCC was reconciled with previous study via remote sensing/geographical information systems using recall data in the Budongo–Bugoma landscape in Uganda. Then, a CA-Markovian prediction model of a LULC situation in 2040 under business as usual (BAU) and forest restoration scenarios was constructed. Additionally, we assessed the perceived proximate and underlying drivers of LULCC, and how LULCC shapes ecosystem services potential using household surveys. The perceived LULCC trend for the past three decades (1990–2020) corresponded with previous studies showing grassland, bushland, tropical high forest, and wetland cover declined greatly, while subsistence farmland, commercial farmland, and built-up areas had a great increment. The predicted LULC unde...

Global Norms, African Contexts: A Framework for Localizing SDGs in Cities

Sustainable Development Goals Series

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out a normative agenda that offers opportunity for c... more The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out a normative agenda that offers opportunity for cities to steer profound change globally. But if cities are to play an effective role in localizing the 2030 Agenda, there is a need for systematic engagement with the conundrums presented by the normative dimensions of the SDGs. We argue that African cities offer unique contextual insights into the linkages and overlaps among SDG norms, due to their immensely diverse nature and historically distinct drivers of urbanization. Set against African urban realities, the chapter presents an analytical framework that construes the linkages between global normative statements and local SDG meanings as mainstream and counter-mainstream interpretations. The framework was built by exploring alternative ways of localizing SDGs, through a transdisciplinary waste-to-energy research project in Kampala, Uganda. Based on the locally experienced tensions within the SDGs, we argue for a flexible approach to...

Effects of climate variability on local communities living in and around Queen Elizabeth National Park, Uganda

African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP), their coping mechanisms, and challenges encountered. Data w... more Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP), their coping mechanisms, and challenges encountered. Data was collected from 250 respondents through questionnaires administered to small holder farmers, salt miners, and fisher folks, as well as in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) held with selected households in Katunguru, Lake Katwe, Kasenyi, and Kahokya parishes in and around the park. The results indicated that climate variability affects all households through long dry spells (drought), increased intensity of rain and occurrence of water related diseases. This resulted in decline in economic output in the context of reduced food availability, household incomes, and poor health of the household members. The results further showed that although diversification of livelihood activities was uniform, the coping mechanisms were heterogeneous across the three economic sectors. While the agricultural households engaged in agricultural intensification, fisher folks changed their fishing technologies, and salt miners drained their flooded saltpans. According to the findings of this study, the effects of climate variability were widespread across all households in and around the park. The study recommends that rural households be supported in a variety of activities in order to build capacity.

City residents, scientists and policy-makers: power in co-producing knowledge

Urban Transformations, 2021

The need to merge scientific with societal knowledge in addressing global sustainability challeng... more The need to merge scientific with societal knowledge in addressing global sustainability challenges has deepened research on a methodology known as co-producing knowledge. It differs from participatory approaches by holding potential for solution-oriented research through sustained relationships with actors across disciplines and sectors. Although there is growing recognition that power shapes interactions in co-producing knowledge, few studies have empirically grounded articulations of power in the context of urban sustainability. This paper draws on case study projects in Africa to discern the forms of power that are navigated by actors when co-producing locally grounded knowledge and solutions for urban sustainability. The projects include: localizing norms on sustainable energy in Kampala city Uganda; confronting coastal vulnerability in Durban South Africa; and upgrading informal settlements in Stellenbosch South Africa. The forms of power across the projects are: expert power ...

Gendered Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change among Local Communities Living around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda

Journal of Geographical Research, 2021

Climate change affects both men and women which, in turn, shapes their varied and contrasting per... more Climate change affects both men and women which, in turn, shapes their varied and contrasting perceptions of climate variability and change. This paper examined the gendered perceptions of climate variability and change among local communities in Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda.The objectives are threefold: - identify climatic shocks faced by the local communities; examine the perceptions of men and women of climate variability and change; and to compare their perceptions with empirical meteorological data. This study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods, with data collected from 215 respondents using survey, interviews and focused group discussions. From the findings, indicators of climate variability and change included reduced flooding events, occurrence of human diseases, increasing crop pests and diseases, dry spells and intensity of rains. There was increasing significant temperatures while rainfall was declining. Both male and female significantly associ...

Pathways for resilience to climate change in African cities

Environmental Research Letters, 2020

African cities are largely less-built with agile informal settlements and multiple ecologies that... more African cities are largely less-built with agile informal settlements and multiple ecologies that harbor different pathways for resilience to climate change. We undertook a qualitative systematic review of academic and policy evidence, to address the question of what interventions are emerging at neigbourhood to city scale to enhance resilience to climate change in Africa. Resilience at neigbourhood scale often stems from harnessing the local resource base and technologies for urban agriculture and forestry; alternative energy from wastes; grassed drainages for protection against erosion; recreation along dry riverbeds; fog-water harvesting; and adjustments in irrigation schedules. At city scale, planning is targeted at buildings, mobility and energy service delivery as the objects to be made resilient. The review established that evidence on comparisons across regions is mainly on East, West and South African cities, and much less on cities in Northern and Central Africa. Ecological comparisons are majorly on coastal and inland cities, with minimal representation of semi-arid and mountainous cities. Resilience efforts in capital cities are the most dominant in the literature, with less emphasis on secondary cities and towns, which is necessary for a deeper understanding of the role played by inter-municipal and inter-metropolitan collaborations. African cities can bring contextsensitivity to global debates on climate resilience, if theoretical perspectives are generated from emerging interventions across case studies. We conclude with suggestions on what future research needs to take on, if evidence on resilience to climate change in African cities is to be strengthened.

Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 2020

Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing count... more Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings The ability of low-income h...