Supplementary material S1: «Macroseismic Data Points (EM-98 scale) for the main investigated eart... more Supplementary material S1: «Macroseismic Data Points (EM-98 scale) for the main investigated earthquakes (this study)»;
Supplementary material S2: «Main historical sources».
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out for the SE sector of Sicily, an area char... more A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out for the SE sector of Sicily, an area characterized by the highest levels of seismic hazard in Italy and by high exposure, both in terms of cultural heritage and of critical industrial facilities. Compared to the Italian reference hazard map (MPS04), this study is based on the most updated information about regional seismic sources and ground-motion attenuation. Epistemic uncertainties associated with the input elements of the computational model were taken into account following a logic-tree approach. Special care was devoted to defining the regional source zone model by considering four alternative models that share the zones defining the boundary conditions of the study area but differ in the seismotectonic characterization of SE Sicily. Seismic hazard was assessed in terms of PGA, PGV, spectral acceleration and displacement on rock for four return periods (30, 50, 475, 975 years). A disaggregation analysis was then performed for some sites of interest. Results confirm the high hazard of the area, with expected values of PGA (at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) slightly higher than the reference MPS04 map. Strong differences emerge instead between the acceleration uniform hazard spectra of this study and the reference ones for the longest return periods.
Proseguimento della assistenza al DPC per il completamento e la gestione della mappa di pericolos... more Proseguimento della assistenza al DPC per il completamento e la gestione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 e progettazione di ulteriori sviluppi Task 1-Completamento delle elaborazioni relative a MPS04 Deliverable D6 Valutazioni sperimentali di amax e di spettri di risposta calibrate per le condizioni locali a cura di L. Luzi, F. Meroni Milano, 4 aprile 2007
Proseguimento della assistenza al DPC per il completamento e la gestione della mappa di pericolos... more Proseguimento della assistenza al DPC per il completamento e la gestione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 e progettazione di ulteriori sviluppi Ulteriori uscite Deliverable D21 Suggerimenti per l'adeguamento delle azioni sismiche di progetto delle norme a cura di G.M. Calvi (1) , C. Meletti (2) , M. Stucchi (2) (1) Eucentre, Pavia (2) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano-Pavia Milano, 31 luglio 2007 Riassunto Le attività di questo deliverable sono consistite nella assistenza diretta a DPC nelle iniziative che si sono succedute nel tempo per la ridefinizione dei criteri per l'individuazione delle zone sismiche e per la revisione della normativa tecnica. Hanno pertanto proceduto di pari passo con le iniziative avviate dal Consiglio Superiore dei Lavori Pubblici, nelle quali il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile ha coinvolto i responsabili del progetto S1. Viene pertanto presentato il rendiconto delle varie fasi delle iniziative alle quali è stato portato un contributo per il trasferimento dei risultati principali del progetto nella predisposizione della normativa.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Jan 27, 2010
This paper is focused on the study of earthquake size statistical distribution by using Bayesian ... more This paper is focused on the study of earthquake size statistical distribution by using Bayesian inference. The strategy consists in the definition of an a priori distribution based on instrumental seismicity, and modeled as a power law distribution. By using the observed historical data, the power law is then modified in order to obtain the posterior distribution. The aim of this paper is to define the earthquake size distribution using all the seismic database available (i.e., instrumental and historical catalogs) and a robust statistical technique. We apply this methodology to the Italian seismicity, dividing the territory in source zones as done for the seismic hazard assessment, taken here as a reference model. The results suggest that each area has its own peculiar trend: while the power law is able to capture the mean aspect of the earthquake size distribution, the posterior emphasizes different slopes in different areas. Our results are in general agreement with the ones used in the seismic hazard assessment in Italy. However, there are areas in which a flattening in the curve is shown, meaning a significant departure from the power law behavior and implying that there are some local aspects that a power law distribution is not able to capture. Online material Results of the analysis applying the statistical completeness.
The Macroseismic Database of Italy 2004, put together in a critical way for the first time the ma... more The Macroseismic Database of Italy 2004, put together in a critical way for the first time the macroseismic data used for the compilation of the CPTI04 (2004) parametric earthquake catalogue. Data come from varied main datasets: i) DOM4.1 (Monachesi e Stucchi, 1997); ii) CFTI version 2 (Boschi et al., 1997) and, for the time-window 1980-2002, CFTI version 3 (Boschi et al., 2000); iii) Bollettino Macrosismico ING (BMING); iv) Catalogo Macrosismico dei Terremoti Etnei, Azzaro et al. (2000; 2002). In addition, data from recent historical and field investigation were also used. DBMI04 contains 58146 macroseismic observations related to 1041 earthquakes and 14161 localities, 12943 of which in Italy. The input data used for the compilation of DBMI04 were not homogeneous with respect to the use of the intensity scale and, mainly, to geographical reference. One of the main task was the organisation of a reliable geographical reference, based on the previous ENEL-ISTAT catalogue of the Italian localities (ENEL, 1978), which was updated by means of new data. Another task consisted in correcting some mis-takes performed when associating the place-names quoted by the historical sources and the geographical reference. Some problems were solved using ad hoc conventions for dealing with observations not expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity. This paper presents the adopted solutions and the results, together with the web-interface through which the database is made available to the public (http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/).
National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are regional models that take our understanding of earth... more National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are regional models that take our understanding of earthquake occurrence and their consequent shaking intensities and make this information useful for decision makers and society. Key goals in modern probabilistic NSHMs are the improved quantification of uncertainty and research to understand the skill and usefulness of the forecasts. Current PSHA-based methods used by NSHMs from diverse tectonic settings around the world are reviewed.
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Papers by Carlo Meletti
Supplementary material S2: «Main historical sources».