Papers by richard kuntner
Skäran river is located in Skåne, Sweden’s southernmost province some 50 km east from Helsingborg... more Skäran river is located in Skåne, Sweden’s southernmost province some 50 km east from Helsingborg. It drains a watershed of 46.6 km2. During summer months flow is very low to the point that the biocenosis of Skäran river watershed is under significant stress. The Coun- ty Administrative Board of Skåne has already implemented some measures to increase flow during summer months but there is still a need to get a better understanding of the hydrologi- cal processes and the potential to intervene. The present report describes a preliminary analysis of the hydrology and land use conditions in / close to the watershed.
Der Mensch hat den Lauf der Enns in den letzten anderthalb Jahrhunderten stark verändert. So wurd... more Der Mensch hat den Lauf der Enns in den letzten anderthalb Jahrhunderten stark verändert. So wurde die Steirische Enns zwischen der Salzburger Landesgrenze und dem Gesäuseeingang begradigt, gestreckt und ihr Lauf um rund 20% verkürzt. Im Gesäuse hingegen (zwischen dem Gesäuseeingang und der Gstatterbo-denbrücke) beschränken sich die Eingriffe des Menschen auf lokale Schutzmaßnahmen für Bahn und Straße. Auf weiten Strecken wird der Lauf der Enns weiterhin von der Natur geformt. Doch schauen wir uns das ein bisschen genauer an und begeben uns auf eine flussbauliche Zeitreise.
Success factors for the operation of mid-European MNE's in Brazil, a Swiss perspective
The year 1993 is a milestone in Brazil’s history. After a decade with soaring four digit infla- t... more The year 1993 is a milestone in Brazil’s history. After a decade with soaring four digit infla- tion rates, a large domestic recession, devaluation and a reduction of wages the introduc- tion of the Plano Real marks the return of macroeconomic stability and growth. Plano Real elaborated by finance minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso was an economic reforms package whose core element was a new currency tied to the US Dollar. The Plano Real was a major success resulting in a tremendous reduction of inflation and let Henrique Cardoso win the presidential elections in 1994. During his presidency he continued his re- form program aiming at deregulation, trade liberalization and the encouragement of for- eign investments while keeping a strict inflation targeting regime. He also privatized state owned companies and introduced cash transfer programs to the poor segments of soci- ety. His successor Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva from the Workers Party pursued the market friendly policy despite his radical socialist rhetoric. He focussed on macroeconomic stabil- ity, aggressive export promotion and the reduction of poverty and inequality. Lula da Silva also resisted all political pressure to weaken the strict inflation targeting policy. Despite the macroeconomic stability Brazil has still a few hurdles to surmount on its way to a sustainable growth. The five main elements are a large informal sector, macroeco- nomic factors that hinder investment as very high interest rates, inappropriate regulations, poor public services including a weak public education system and a poor infrastructure For Multinational Enterprises the huge internal market offers vast opportunities. On the other hand the aforementioned hurdles also influence the activities of the companies. They are consequently confronted with a large number of different agents with a variety of interactions and specific dynamic relations between the agents, what forms a complex system as defined by the St. Gall Management Model (Rüegg-Stürm 2005). The research question addressed in the thesis emerges from the aforementioned context. It is the question how the subsidiaries of Swiss MNEs deal with the complexity of the Bra- zilian market. The question is answered by looking at mainly secondary data (newspaper articles, case studies) on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil through the lens of the complexity framework of Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). The authors propose to de- scribe complexity in a business environment by the complexity driver diversity, interde- pendence, ambiguity and fast flux. To cope with complexity they further propose to reduce the complexity by introducing common goals and behaviours, focus, decentralisation and standardisation. The authors specify the complexity drivers and complexity simplifiers for all business functions, processes, organizational and strategic aspects a company is con- fronted with. The analysis shows that the way the companies perceive the Brazilian business environ- ment and their stakeholders can be characterized adequately by the four complexity driv- ers. There is a large number (multiplicity) of agents with a variety of interest and inten- tions. Their intentions and interests are often not fully understood and unknown (ambigu- © PHW Hochschule Wirtschaft April2011 page 6 of 118 ous) and the market is highly dynamic (fast flux). The complexity framework does however not allow to adequately describe the very important role of authorities and the government in driving complexity as observed by the companies and the challenges resulting from the important shortage of qualified workforce. The interactions of the companies with their environment and their stakeholder can be captured well by the four complexity simplifiers introduced by Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). There are common (corporate) goals and behaviours, focus on core activities and stakeholder,. standardisation of processes with a certain freedom of the subsidiaries to specifically react to the requirements of the local market (decentralisation). Imbedded in the overall tendency to reduce complexity a move towards embracing complexity can be observed as long as it results in additional added value and can be handled. The analysis has further shown that analysing country markets and the experiences of subsidiaries of MNE’s operating in these countries in the light of complexity as proposed in this thesis might offer a new comprehensive alternative to the “how to do business in” guides. Further research might therefore extend on one hand the investigations started in the context of this thesis with a more comprehensive data set on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil ideally consisting mainly of primary data. Another direction of research would be to test the complexity framework for other countries.
Wasser Energie Luft , 2007
Glacier lake outbursts in Switzerland - mechanisms and measures untertaken to prevent further out... more Glacier lake outbursts in Switzerland - mechanisms and measures untertaken to prevent further outbursts (Sirvoltesee, Weingartensee, Grubensee) Neben Längen- und Geometrieveränderungen, Gletscher- und Eisstürzen stellen Gletscherhochwasser eine der wichtigsten von Gletschern ausgehende Gefahr dar. Gletscherhochwasser entstehen bei dem plötzlichen Auslaufen von auf, in, neben oder unter Gletschern gelegenen Schmelzwasserreservoirs. Die durch das mög- liche Auslaufen der Schmelzwasserreservoirs bewirkten Flutwellen können grosse Geschiebemengen mobilisieren und Murgänge auslösen, welche an flussabwärts gelegenen Siedlungen und Infrastrukturanlagen beträchtlichen Schäden anrichten. Das Phänomen der Gletscherseen ist aus allen vergletscherten Gebirgsregionen be- kannt. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden der Sirvoltesee, der Weingartensee und die Gru- benseen vorgestellt. Für diese in den südlichen Walliser Alpen gelegenen Gletscher- seen werden Ausbruchmechanismen aufgezeigt und die zum Schutz vor zukünftigen Ausbrüchen unternommenen Massnahmen vorgestellt. Die Erfahrung mit diesen Seen zeigt, dass das von Gletscherseen ausgehende Risiko mit Hilfe eines Schutz- konzeptes teilweise beherrschbar gemacht werden kann. Ein Schutzkonzept sollte neben allfälligen baulichen Massnahmen ein Interventions-, Beobachtungs- und In- formationskonzept umfassen. Es muss den spezifischen Gegebenheiten eines Glet- schersees Rechnung tragen. Damit Sanierungsmassnahmen rechtzeitig realisiert werden können bedarf es eines frühzeitigen Erkennens allfälliger Gefahrenherde. Bisher gibt es jedoch noch kein funktionierendes Früherkennungskonzept für solche Gefahren.
The Enns is a tributary of the Danube and drains an area of roughly 6000 km2. At the Gesäuse the... more The Enns is a tributary of the Danube and drains an area of roughly 6000 km2. At the Gesäuse the Enns flows through a narrow valley located in the Gesäuse National Park. The river section between the entrance of the Gesäuse and the Gstatterboden is known as last “natural” section of the Enns. This is partially true as there are sections in the Gesäuse where the Enns can remodel its river channel in interaction with the alluvial cones and the sediment input from the tributaries. As the Gesäuse is an east-west connection through a part of the Alps it is predestined as railway and road connection. In the course of the con- struction of these traffic axes the river bed of the Enns was relocated and the banks rein- forced at different places.
Today the Enns in the Gesäuse is home to a very small fish population which is due to the limited number of habitats (habitats are created by the river dynamics) and the daily flow fluc- tuations caused by the operation of the hydropower stations.
This study aims at defining sections of the Enns river in the Gesäuse which have been modi- fied and where the bank reinforcement could be removed without significantly increasing the risk-exposure of the railway line and the road. It is based on literature, on-site inspections, the DEM and aerial pictures from different decades.
NB: Due to the tight time frame this study is just an introduction to the topic. It gives some ideas on how to deal more in detail with the question.
The river sections which are most influenced by human interventions are the Zigeunerau, the section upstream of the Finstergraben and the section upstream of the Gstatterboden-bridge. Near the Gstatterboden-bridge the existing river bend has bend cut short and the new bank was reinforced with a rip rap. Upstream of the Finstergraben the bank has been reinforced to protect the road and at the eastern part of the Zigeunerau the geometry of the river channel has been modified.
The Krapfalm, the Räucherlboden and the Rauchboden were exposed to intensive agricul- tural use but there is no information to which extent the terraces were modified and the banks of the terraces reinforced.
Possible interventions to revitalize the Enns range from the local removal of boulders and vegetation (to create some weak points for the erosion to start) to the total removal of the re- inforcements at Zigeunerau, upstream of Finstergraben and upstream of the Gstatterboden- bridge. These larger interventions must go hand in hand with the planning of the reinforce- ments for road embankments and other infrastructure which might be at risk.
In this situation the following recommendations might be considered:
• A comprehensive photographic documentation of the left and the right bank using a boat or a drone is very useful. At the same time the archives of ÖBB, the Baubezirksleitung, the hydropower company, the monastery and local newspapers should be searched for all documents dealing with human interventions / modifica- tions in the Gesäuse. Thereafter the protection requirement for the different elements of the infrastructure should be defined and different concepts of interventions elabo- rated simultaneously on different “channels” (i.e. in the context of the LIFE IP IRIS Project and a master thesis) in close coordination with all major stakeholders.
• All stakeholders should be involved in the planning process from an early stage in order to guarantee a solution which is widely accepted. This includes the environ- mental monitoring.
• A better understanding of the sediment inputs, the sediment balance and the sedi- ment transport in this section of the Enns - which includes surveying a number of cross sections at regular time intervals and after important flood events – is recom- mended but probably more of academic interest.
• The reduction of the daily flow fluctuations caused by the operation of the hydro- power stations is a key element for the revitalization of the Enns. It should therefore always remain on all agendas dealing with this topic.
Cromwell Brook is a small catchment on Mount Desert Island in Maine with a surface of 3 sqm. The ... more Cromwell Brook is a small catchment on Mount Desert Island in Maine with a surface of 3 sqm. The upper part of the catchment is entirely located in Acadia National Park. The lower part of the catchment is used as golf course and as residential, commercial and recreational area.
It consists of two sub catchments, Kebo which covers 1.2 sqm and Cromwell which drains 1.4 sqm. The substratum of the catchment is impervious which favours a flashy reaction to storm events. This can be observed in Kebo whereas in Cromwell the runoff is considerable attenu- ated by an artificial lake, the Tarn, a 116-acre wetland, the Great Meadow and last and most important by the Park Loop Road dam at the downstream end of the Great Meadow with a 3.3 ft pipe culvert.
Rain storms of 3-4 inches which can happen more than once a year cause backwaters at the Park Loop Road culvert and inundations at the Sieur de Mont park infrastructure at the up- stream end of the Great Meadow wetland. The culvert also inhibits the migration of microor- ganisms from Great Meadow to the Sea and vice versa. To remedy this situation the Park Loop Road culvert and two other culverts further downstream might be replaced by bridges. Because of the important flood attenuation effect the Park Loop Road culvert actually has, replacing the culvert by a bridge will increase the flood peaks in the lower part of the catchment.
The present study therefore aims at understanding the actual flood risk in the lower part of the Cromwell Brook catchment and the influence of possible modifications in the upper part of the catchment (culvert replacement) on the downstream flood risk.
Merging different existing definitions, the author of this study defines the flood risk for a spe- cific object / person as the result of multiplying the probability of occurrence of a flood event (possible impact) with the vulnerability (to the impact). The vulnerability depends on the mate- rial and monetary value attributed to an object (infrastructure, natural resource, cultural re- source) or an animal / a person and will not be discussed in this analysis. The analysis focus- ses on determining the possible impact of flood events.
Analysing the impact of a flood events consists in comparing possible flood scenarios (peak flows and hydrographs for different recurrence intervals) with the runoff capacity and defining where the water leaves the river bed and where it flows in which intensity (velocity, flow depth).
For the Cromwell Brook catchment, the study therefore started with the definition of scenarios for Kebo and Cromwell sub catchments. The decisive scenarios are floods (rainfall and rain- fall / snowmelt induced), a dam break at Park Loop Road Culvert (not likely to happen) and floods combined with ice (log) jam. Sediment transport is of minor importance.
Due to the limited or non-existing data on historical floods, the flood scenarios presented in this study are an educated guess. They are mainly based on the determination of the actual runoff capacity combined with information on historical floods. The two main reference points for the estimations are:
• The actual runoff capacity in the lower part of Cromwell Brook (at the Cromwell Har- bor Road bridge) is in the order of 400-450 cfs and there is no historical information that this capacity was exceeded by a flood event in the last 80 years. It is therefore assumed that 400-450 cfs correspond to a 100-year event.
• The retention capacity behind the Park Loop Road dam / culvert is in the order of 650’000 m3. There is no historic record that the dam was overtopped or that it was close to happen in its nearly 80 years of existence. As a consequence, the 650’000 m3 correspond at least to the direct runoff volume of a (100)-200-year event and there is no runoff > 100 cfs for smaller events (as 100 cfs are the maximal capacity of the culvert before the dam is overtopped).
• Depending on the assumptions of the breach geometry, the peak of a flood wave caused by a dam break is roughly estimated to be 340 / 570 cfs at the Park Loop Road bridge.
In the actual situation these scenarios cause a maximum flow of 30 – 60 cfs into the flood plain. In the case of flood events during winter time a smaller flood combined with an ice jam at a critical cross section may however cause larger flows into the flood plain.
The expected / planned modification of the infrastructure in the upper part of the catchment is the replacement of the three culverts by bridges. Climate change will probably manifest itself in the form of significant modifications of rainfall patterns in fall and more frequent oscillations
of the temperature around 32° F in winter. Winter flood events with freezing and thawing cy- cles will become more frequent.
These modifications may cause an increase of peak flows at Cromwell Harbor Road bridge by 100 cfs. Due to the missing data to base the estimations on, these estimations and find- ings are however subject to a large uncertainty.
The higher frequency of thawing / freezing cycles during winter events accentuates the prob- ability of occurrence of winter flood / ice jam scenarios.
Recommendations based on these findings are:
1) Expansion and systematisation of data collection and detailed compilation and anal- ysis of all existing data. This includes:
• Compilation of all existing data from all sources.
• Continuous measurement of runoff at Cromwell and Kebo including the water
level immediately upstream of the Park Loop Road culvert.
• 1h rainfall data are essential to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the
flashy catchments on MDI.
• Detailed analysis of Otter Creek flood events (in particular the events of 2008
and 2009).
2) Elaboration of an integrated flood risk management concept for the whole catchment with all stakeholders. The concept will comprise:
• Protection goals derived from the values (emotional and monetary) associated to the private and public infrastructure, natural / cultural monuments, animals, persons...
• Maintenance and intervention procedures (written documents).
• Awareness creation amongst stakeholders.
• Structural measures (e.g. increasing the actual runoff capacity by the expected
increment of the flood peak for a 200 year event; optimizing the river geometry immediately downstream of Cromwell Harbor Road bridge; submersible corridor at the Cromwell Harbor Road bridge,...)
3) Other recommendations for adaptations in the catchment are:
• Increased resilience of Sieur de Monts park infrastructure to inundations by ob-
ject protection measures.
Decoupling of flood risk from wetland hydrology at the Park Loop Road culvert. By building a ramp (wooden structure or blocks) upstream of the Park Loop Road culvert the water level in the wetland can be managed independently from the elevation of the riverbed at the culvert / bridge.
• Bank protection at the golf course with bioengineering methods.
Vivamos Mejor (VM) is a Swiss Foundation aiming at the improvement of the living condi- tions of ... more Vivamos Mejor (VM) is a Swiss Foundation aiming at the improvement of the living condi- tions of socioeconomically disadvantaged segments of society in four countries in Central and Latin America. It implements its projects in cooperation with local NGOs with a proven track record. One of its thematic pillars is water, i.e. insuring food and livelihood security of small farmers in semi-arid and sub-humid areas. In Brazil Vivamos Mejor cooperates with the “Centro de Agricultura Alternativa Vicente Nica” (CAV), which has a long lasting experience in rainwater harvesting / storage and organic agricultural production.
The intention of this report is to have a very short / non exhaustive look at the literature on rainwater harvesting and the geographical context of CAV, to document the experiences of CAV in the field of rainwater harvesting and to deduce some general recommendations based on the experiences of the CAV. The recommendations should help in transferring the experiences of CAV to other projects of VM in Central America and eventually in up-scaling the project.
Water harvesting techniques have been known for thousands of years particularly in India, China and the Middle East. In the second half of last century water harvesting faced a revival in the countries mentioned but to a minor degree also in Africa and Latin America. Consider- ing that 40% of the global land area is covered with dry lands and most of the rural poor live in this area it is however a fact that water harvesting is still far from it’s potential and still re- mains largely unknown, unacknowledged and unappreciated.
In Brazil the semiarid region covers an area of 970’000 km2. The project area of the CAV, the Alto Jequitinhonha, is part of this semi-arid region, close to 20’000 km2 in size and home to 270’000 inhabitants. Annual precipitation mainly ranges from 700 mm to 1200 mm and is concentrated between October and March. The topography of the Alto Jequitinhonha is characterized by high plains (chapadas) and river valleys (grotas). Chapadas are often cov- ered by agro industrial monocultures (eucalyptus) and small farmers live in the grotas close to springs and water bodies. The agro industrial plantations influence the hydrological condi- tions of the catchments they are located in.
CAV has its roots in the movement of small farmers. It aims at reducing the rural exodus by offering the small farmers an economic perspective. The pillars of its activities are water availability, sustainable agricultural production, marketing of agricultural products and the or- ganization of the farmers into associations. The associations of farmers should be able to voice the interests of the small farmers and become stakeholders respected by the mayor players as agroindustry and public administration at municipal, provincial and federal level. In the field of rainwater harvesting CAV has a lot of experience with the installation of rooftop water harvesting systems and since 2008 with managed aquifer recharge.
CAV distinguishes three types of installations, bacias, barraginhas and diques. Bacias are small, excavated ponds located in the headwaters of springs with the aim to infiltrate as much water as possible and to retain material eroded from roads. Barraginhas are located below the spring level and have a storage capacity between a few 100 m3 and a few 1000
Vivamos Mejor / CAV December 2014 page 7 of 60
m3. The purpose of barraginhas is to infiltrate the collected water, which should then result in a perennial subsurface flow towards springs and / or wells located downstream of the ponds. The water captured is also directly used for irrigation / agricultural production. Barraginhas are excavated and the material excavated is used to build the dam. Diques are small con- crete dams built on rocky underground. They are mainly located downstream of barraginhas collecting the water resurfacing below the barraginha.
The project planning of the CAV follows a sequence of steps consisting of a) the analysis of the context and boundary conditions, b) the definition of potential beneficiaries (by the com- munities) and c) site visit and decision on the location, type and size of installation to be real- ized. This decision is based on a number of criteria concerning topography, logistics and the willingness of the beneficiaries to participate in the project activities. Barraginhas and bacias are built by a dozer and the beneficiaries are expected to protect the vicinity from erosion and other adverse influences. To evaluate the overall performance of its activities (not in par- ticular its water related activities) the CAV started a monitoring programme, which has a closer look at the weekly income of 50 families who sell their agricultural products. The moni- toring programme started in 2014 and is supposed to run for at least 3-4 years. The mainte- nance of the installations often still depends on the input from CAV and documentation of project activities is under “construction”. There are a few forms and mapping the project ac- tivities with a GIS system is planned.
Based on these observations at CAV general recommendations were deduced:
In terms of technology the author recommends to optimize the compaction of the dams (bar- raginhas) by increasing the water content, to consider statics and potential sediment input when planning the diques and forming packages of measures, i.e. the installations per se and measures to protect the installations from erosion. The project planning procedure might follow a 5-step approach consisting of a) the context analysis and the decision on whether to launch project activities in a community b) a participatory problem and need assessment c) the catchment analysis and the intensive dialogue with beneficiaries d) the participatory elaboration of a water supply concept and e) the planning of the single installation with the beneficiaries. When planning the single installation all known rainwater harvesting and man- aged aquifer technologies should be considered, as the Brazilian context is particular in terms of space availability, and there might be much less space available in other countries. All measures concerning the protection of the installations from erosion should be imple- mented at the same time as the installations. As the installations aim at water availability they can be evaluated based on the criteria whether a) the water intended at for agricultural pro- duction is available and b) the installations are well maintained at the beginning of the rainy season. The level / quality of maintenance can be taken as an indicator for the degree of ownership of the installation and farmers should consider maintenance as an important is- sue.
The documentation of the installations should be based on GIS maps serving as visualisation and selling tool (towards donors and investors) and a small number of forms permitting to profit from the lessons learned and to disseminate these lessons within CAV.
EMBA Thesis, 2011
The year 1993 is a milestone in Brazil’s history. After a decade with soaring four digit infla- t... more The year 1993 is a milestone in Brazil’s history. After a decade with soaring four digit infla- tion rates, a large domestic recession, devaluation and a reduction of wages the introduc- tion of the Plano Real marks the return of macroeconomic stability and growth. Plano Real elaborated by finance minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso was an economic reforms package whose core element was a new currency tied to the US Dollar. The Plano Real was a major success resulting in a tremendous reduction of inflation and let Henrique Cardoso win the presidential elections in 1994. During his presidency he continued his re- form program aiming at deregulation, trade liberalization and the encouragement of for- eign investments while keeping a strict inflation targeting regime. He also privatized state owned companies and introduced cash transfer programs to the poor segments of soci- ety. His successor Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva from the Workers Party pursued the market friendly policy despite his radical socialist rhetoric. He focussed on macroeconomic stabil- ity, aggressive export promotion and the reduction of poverty and inequality. Lula da Silva also resisted all political pressure to weaken the strict inflation targeting policy.
Despite the macroeconomic stability Brazil has still a few hurdles to surmount on its way to a sustainable growth. The five main elements are a large informal sector, macroeco- nomic factors that hinder investment as very high interest rates, inappropriate regulations, poor public services including a weak public education system and a poor infrastructure
For Multinational Enterprises the huge internal market offers vast opportunities. On the other hand the aforementioned hurdles also influence the activities of the companies. They are consequently confronted with a large number of different agents with a variety of interactions and specific dynamic relations between the agents, what forms a complex system as defined by the St. Gall Management Model (Rüegg-Stürm 2005).
The research question addressed in the thesis emerges from the aforementioned context. It is the question how the subsidiaries of Swiss MNEs deal with the complexity of the Bra- zilian market. The question is answered by looking at mainly secondary data (newspaper articles, case studies) on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil through the lens of the complexity framework of Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). The authors propose to de- scribe complexity in a business environment by the complexity driver diversity, interde- pendence, ambiguity and fast flux. To cope with complexity they further propose to reduce the complexity by introducing common goals and behaviours, focus, decentralisation and standardisation. The authors specify the complexity drivers and complexity simplifiers for all business functions, processes, organizational and strategic aspects a company is con- fronted with.
The analysis shows that the way the companies perceive the Brazilian business environ- ment and their stakeholders can be characterized adequately by the four complexity driv- ers. There is a large number (multiplicity) of agents with a variety of interest and inten- tions. Their intentions and interests are often not fully understood and unknown (ambigu-
© PHW Hochschule Wirtschaft April2011 page 6 of 118
ous) and the market is highly dynamic (fast flux). The complexity framework does however not allow to adequately describe the very important role of authorities and the government in driving complexity as observed by the companies and the challenges resulting from the important shortage of qualified workforce.
The interactions of the companies with their environment and their stakeholder can be captured well by the four complexity simplifiers introduced by Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). There are common (corporate) goals and behaviours, focus on core activities and stakeholder,. standardisation of processes with a certain freedom of the subsidiaries to specifically react to the requirements of the local market (decentralisation). Imbedded in the overall tendency to reduce complexity a move towards embracing complexity can be observed as long as it results in additional added value and can be handled.
The analysis has further shown that analysing country markets and the experiences of subsidiaries of MNE’s operating in these countries in the light of complexity as proposed in this thesis might offer a new comprehensive alternative to the “how to do business in” guides. Further research might therefore extend on one hand the investigations started in the context of this thesis with a more comprehensive data set on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil ideally consisting mainly of primary data. Another direction of research would be to test the complexity framework for other countries.
The acquisition of Swiss by Lufthansa is a success and a model for acquisitions in the European a... more The acquisition of Swiss by Lufthansa is a success and a model for acquisitions in the European airline business. Key success factors were on one hand the fact that Swiss’ stakeholders accepted that independent medium-size network and flag carriers are a thing of the past. Swiss further profited from its good reputation and the willingness of all stakeholders to participate (more or less voluntary) in the significant restructuring and down- sizing of the company. Lufthansa’s willingness on the other hand to pay a lot of attention to the cultural differences between the two companies and allowing Swiss to continue its operations as profit center in the Lufthansa group was another key element contributing to the success of the acquisition. The airline business in general is however highly vulnerable to external effects as political and environmental events (financial crisis, volcanic ash cloud,..). High flexibility and profitability must consequently remain the priorities of Swiss’ operations within the Lufthansa group.
Nat Hazards (2009) 49:517–539, 2009
We describe the development, implementation, and first analyses of the performance of a debris-fl... more We describe the development, implementation, and first analyses of the performance of a debris-flow warning system for the Illgraben catchment and debris fan area. The Illgraben catchment (9.5 km 2), located in the Canton of Valais, Switzerland, in the Rhone River valley, is characterized by frequent and voluminous sediment transport and debris-flow activity, and is one of the most active debris-flow catchments in the Alps. It is the site of an instrumented debris-flow observation station in operation since the year 2000. The residents in Susten (municipality Leuk), tourists, and other land users, are exposed to a significant hazard. The warning system consists of four modules: community organizational planning (hazard awareness and preparedness), event detection and alerting, geomorphic catchment observation, and applied research to facilitate the development of an early warning system based on weather forecasting. The system presently provides automated alert signals near the active channel prior to (5-15 min) the arrival of a debris flow or flash flood at the uppermost frequently used channel crossing. It is intended to provide data to support decision-making for warning and evacuation, especially when unusually large debris flows are expected to leave the channel near populated areas. First-year results of the detection and alert module in comparison with the data from the independent debris-flow observation station are generally favorable. Twenty automated alerts (alarms) were issued, which triggered flashing lights and sirens at all major footpaths crossing the channel bed, for three debris flows and 16 flood flows. Only one false alarm was issued. The major difficulty we encountered is related to the variability and complexity of the events (e.g., events consisting of multiple surges) and can be largely solved by increasing the duration of the alarm. All of the alarms for hazardous events were produced by storms with a rainfall duration and intensity larger than the threshold for debris-flow activity that was defined in an earlier study, supporting our intention to investigate the use of rainfall forecasts to increase the time available for warning and implementation of active countermeasures
Wasser Energie Luft , 2007
Der Illgraben bei Leuk im Kanton Wallis (Schweiz) hat im Laufe der Zeit einen mächtigen Kegel ge... more Der Illgraben bei Leuk im Kanton Wallis (Schweiz) hat im Laufe der Zeit einen mächtigen Kegel geschüttet, welcher die Rhone nach Norden abgedrängt und Raum für die Bildung des Pfynwaldes geschaffen hat . Noch heute fallen auf Grund der fortwährenden und intensiven Verwitterung im Einzugsgebiet grosse Mengen an feinem und grobem Lockermaterial an. Bei intensiven Niederschlägen (Gewitter, Schauer) oder einer Kombination von Schmelzwasser und Regenfällen wird dieses Material mobilisiert und in Form von Murgängen bis in die Rhone transportiert. Mehrmals pro Jahr werden im Illgraben Murgangereignisse beobachtet. Dabei besteht je nach Zustand des Gerinnes ab einer gewissen Ereignisgrösse das Risiko, dass ein Murgang aus dem Gerinne ausbricht und Infrastrukturanlagen sowie Teile der Ortschaft Susten beschädigt.
Infolge dieser Gefahrenlage wurde 1999 mit der Erarbeitung eines Schutzkonzeptes begonnen. In einer ersten konzeptuellen Phase wurden bis 2003 detaillierte Untersuchungen zu möglichen Murgangszenarien durchgeführt. Dabei wurden die Gefahrensituation und das Schadenpotenzial ermittelt und auf Grund der Schutzziele der Handlungsbedarf – inkl. Massnahmenplanung im Bereich Unterhalt, Raumplanung und bauliche Massnahmen – definiert. Die wichtigsten baulichen Massnahmen befinden sich zurzeit in der eingehenderen Ausarbeitung. Neben den baulichen Schutzmassnahmen stellt die Notfallplanung einen wichtigen Teil des Schutzkonzeptes dar. Diese soll den Ablauf der Interventionsmassnahmen im Ereignisfall so steuern, dass das Schutzkonzept optimal funktioniert.
Wichtiger Bestandteil eines Notfallkonzeptes ist eine den örtlichen Gegebenheiten angepasste Alarmierung. Das Alarmsystem beim Illgraben besteht aus den folgenden 4 Elementen:
1) Organisatorische Massnahmen in der Gemeinde: Aufklärung über Gefährdung, Erstellung von Alarmierungsabläufen und Massnahmenplanung im Ereignisfall.
2) System für die Detektion von Murgang- ereignissen und automatische Alarm- auslösung.
3) Systematische und standardisierte Beobachtung des Einzugsgebietes, mit Erstellung einer langfristigen Da- tenbank.
4) Verbesserung der lokalen Wetterprognose und ihre Umsetzung für die Ermittlung der Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeit.
Diese 4 Elemente werden im Artikel im Detail beschrieben
Doctoral Thesis , 2002
Severe floods regularly occur at different places all over the world including the European Alps ... more Severe floods regularly occur at different places all over the world including the European Alps and Prealps. They are responsible for important damages and a large number of fatalities. Consequently, research activities in physical and engineering sciences have long focused on understanding the underlying physical processes and on developing methods to reproduce and predict floods. Despite considerable progress in both fields over the last few years, a number of questions still remain open. The frequent over- or underestimation of both structural and non-structural measures for flood mitigation are, however, only partially caused by this fact. Recent and more sophisticated methods of flood estimation do not often penetrate to everyday hydrological practice in engineering companies and federal agencies. These methods are abandoned in favour of simple empirical methods, mainly due to their extended demand in input data. The reliability of the results obtained by these simple methods is, however, often unsatisfactory and there is a strong demand for better performing practice-oriented methods.
This work intends to add a step towards the solution of this problem. The overall goal consists in developing / adapting a methodology for the estimation of overland flow suited to the Swiss alpine and prealpine context. The methodology should further exclusively rely on widely available geographic information. It was decided in this respect to work with the geographic database GEOSTAT. GEOSTAT is operated by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (Bundesamt für Statistik) and covers the whole country. The highest spatial resolution of the maps is 1 hectare. For overland flow estimation the Curve Number method is used. The Curve Number method was developed by the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly known as Soil Conservation Service) and allows for the estimation of direct runoff for a given rainfall input based only on qualitative information on soil type and land use. The goal then consists in adapting the Curve Number method in order to allow for a correct reproduction of overland flow for all types of hydrological different reacting areas which can be differentiated based on information from the GEOSTAT maps.
This goal is addressed by reproducing hydrographs of annual flood events observed in four alpine and prealpine catchments by means of a spatially distributed Rainfall-Runoff model. The spatial resolution of the model corresponds to the spatial resolution of the information from the GEOSTAT maps (1ha). For each single grid cell, the overland flow is further calculated separately by the Curve Number equation. The simulations then allow for indications on the performance and the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation for single hydrological different reacting areas. These indications are however exposed to larger uncertainties. The simulated hydrograph is influenced by different hydrological areas which react similarly and different modules of the model (e.g. subsurface flow module). Therefore the single hydrological different reacting areas cannot be analysed independently. In order to reduce the uncertainty, the performance of the Curve Number equation was also analysed based on data from a number of small scale
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rainfall experiments. These experiments are of interest in the context of the present study, as the runoff processes and the soil characteristics at the plot sites were observed and measured in detail. Consequently, the performance of the Curve Number equation can be investigated separately for single soil types. The results from the analysis at this plot scale show that the equation mainly performs well for rainfall plots in which Hortonian runoff processes dominate and which are located on Cambisols and Gleysols. The equation shows a lower performance for plots on soils such as Rendzina, Ranker and Podsol. In terms of reparameterisation, only preliminary indications are gained from the analysis mainly due to the limited number of experiments. For a number of plot sites the runoff behaviour is furthermore dominated by local structures such as macropores.
At basin scale the Rainfall-Runoff model in general and the Curve Number equation in particular show a satisfactory performance in reproducing the flood runoff observed in the prealpine catchments. In the alpine catchment considered a reproduction of the flood events was however not successful due to the large uncertainty of the spatial rainfall distribution and the influence of snow on the flood events. The simulations generally result in rough indications on the performance and the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation for a number of hydrological different reacting areas. For storm events characterised by rainfall peaks interrupted by periods of rainfall of low intensity, modification of the Curve Number method is further required and proposed. A comparison of the resulting parameterisation with event characteristics then shows that the relation of parameterisation and antecedent wetness conditions presented in the original Curve Number method are not valid in the alpine and prealpine context. The found Curve Number values further decline with increasing storm rainfall volume.
The indications on the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation are however exposed to larger uncertainties. The findings from the analysis at plot scale are partially helpful in reducing these uncertainties.
This study represents a first important step towards the modification of the Curve Number method to a method for the estimation of the overland flow in the Swiss alpine and prealpine environment. Further steps mainly consist in extending the analysis / adaptation of the Curve Number method to a large number of additional mesoscale catchments of the Swiss Plateau and the Prealps. When selecting the catchments, similar hydrological different reacting areas should be present in several catchments. This permits a more precise idea on the performance of the Curve Number equation for single hydrological different reacting areas. The simulations of flood events from additional catchments may also serve to refine the proposed modification of the Curve Number equation and gain insight into how the parameterisation relates with the antecedent wetness conditions.
Talks by richard kuntner
The history of flood protection in Switzerland dates back to the 18th century, more 100 years bef... more The history of flood protection in Switzerland dates back to the 18th century, more 100 years before the Federation of sovereign cantons were replaced by the Swiss Federation in 1848. Flood protection became a collaborative endeavor and many rivers were channelized, large surfaces drained and river beds relocated. It was basically the flood event of 1987 which provoked a paradigm change from the protection against hazards at all costs to the Integrated Risk Management. The three key elements of the Integrated Risk Management are 1) risk analysis, 2) risk assessment 3) integrated planning of protection measures. The risk analysis is based on the hazard maps. In the last 20 years these maps have been elaborated for hydrologic, avalanche, fall, and slide-hazard processes and cover > 95% of all residential areas. *** The Swiss real estate insurance system (which includes flood events) is unique. In 23 out of 26 provinces real estate insurance is mandatory and 98% of all real estate is insured. It is based on the principle of double solidarity: solidarity amongst the policyholders as the policy is independent from the hazard level and the solidarity amongst the insurance companies as they are pooling the risk.
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Papers by richard kuntner
Today the Enns in the Gesäuse is home to a very small fish population which is due to the limited number of habitats (habitats are created by the river dynamics) and the daily flow fluc- tuations caused by the operation of the hydropower stations.
This study aims at defining sections of the Enns river in the Gesäuse which have been modi- fied and where the bank reinforcement could be removed without significantly increasing the risk-exposure of the railway line and the road. It is based on literature, on-site inspections, the DEM and aerial pictures from different decades.
NB: Due to the tight time frame this study is just an introduction to the topic. It gives some ideas on how to deal more in detail with the question.
The river sections which are most influenced by human interventions are the Zigeunerau, the section upstream of the Finstergraben and the section upstream of the Gstatterboden-bridge. Near the Gstatterboden-bridge the existing river bend has bend cut short and the new bank was reinforced with a rip rap. Upstream of the Finstergraben the bank has been reinforced to protect the road and at the eastern part of the Zigeunerau the geometry of the river channel has been modified.
The Krapfalm, the Räucherlboden and the Rauchboden were exposed to intensive agricul- tural use but there is no information to which extent the terraces were modified and the banks of the terraces reinforced.
Possible interventions to revitalize the Enns range from the local removal of boulders and vegetation (to create some weak points for the erosion to start) to the total removal of the re- inforcements at Zigeunerau, upstream of Finstergraben and upstream of the Gstatterboden- bridge. These larger interventions must go hand in hand with the planning of the reinforce- ments for road embankments and other infrastructure which might be at risk.
In this situation the following recommendations might be considered:
• A comprehensive photographic documentation of the left and the right bank using a boat or a drone is very useful. At the same time the archives of ÖBB, the Baubezirksleitung, the hydropower company, the monastery and local newspapers should be searched for all documents dealing with human interventions / modifica- tions in the Gesäuse. Thereafter the protection requirement for the different elements of the infrastructure should be defined and different concepts of interventions elabo- rated simultaneously on different “channels” (i.e. in the context of the LIFE IP IRIS Project and a master thesis) in close coordination with all major stakeholders.
• All stakeholders should be involved in the planning process from an early stage in order to guarantee a solution which is widely accepted. This includes the environ- mental monitoring.
• A better understanding of the sediment inputs, the sediment balance and the sedi- ment transport in this section of the Enns - which includes surveying a number of cross sections at regular time intervals and after important flood events – is recom- mended but probably more of academic interest.
• The reduction of the daily flow fluctuations caused by the operation of the hydro- power stations is a key element for the revitalization of the Enns. It should therefore always remain on all agendas dealing with this topic.
It consists of two sub catchments, Kebo which covers 1.2 sqm and Cromwell which drains 1.4 sqm. The substratum of the catchment is impervious which favours a flashy reaction to storm events. This can be observed in Kebo whereas in Cromwell the runoff is considerable attenu- ated by an artificial lake, the Tarn, a 116-acre wetland, the Great Meadow and last and most important by the Park Loop Road dam at the downstream end of the Great Meadow with a 3.3 ft pipe culvert.
Rain storms of 3-4 inches which can happen more than once a year cause backwaters at the Park Loop Road culvert and inundations at the Sieur de Mont park infrastructure at the up- stream end of the Great Meadow wetland. The culvert also inhibits the migration of microor- ganisms from Great Meadow to the Sea and vice versa. To remedy this situation the Park Loop Road culvert and two other culverts further downstream might be replaced by bridges. Because of the important flood attenuation effect the Park Loop Road culvert actually has, replacing the culvert by a bridge will increase the flood peaks in the lower part of the catchment.
The present study therefore aims at understanding the actual flood risk in the lower part of the Cromwell Brook catchment and the influence of possible modifications in the upper part of the catchment (culvert replacement) on the downstream flood risk.
Merging different existing definitions, the author of this study defines the flood risk for a spe- cific object / person as the result of multiplying the probability of occurrence of a flood event (possible impact) with the vulnerability (to the impact). The vulnerability depends on the mate- rial and monetary value attributed to an object (infrastructure, natural resource, cultural re- source) or an animal / a person and will not be discussed in this analysis. The analysis focus- ses on determining the possible impact of flood events.
Analysing the impact of a flood events consists in comparing possible flood scenarios (peak flows and hydrographs for different recurrence intervals) with the runoff capacity and defining where the water leaves the river bed and where it flows in which intensity (velocity, flow depth).
For the Cromwell Brook catchment, the study therefore started with the definition of scenarios for Kebo and Cromwell sub catchments. The decisive scenarios are floods (rainfall and rain- fall / snowmelt induced), a dam break at Park Loop Road Culvert (not likely to happen) and floods combined with ice (log) jam. Sediment transport is of minor importance.
Due to the limited or non-existing data on historical floods, the flood scenarios presented in this study are an educated guess. They are mainly based on the determination of the actual runoff capacity combined with information on historical floods. The two main reference points for the estimations are:
• The actual runoff capacity in the lower part of Cromwell Brook (at the Cromwell Har- bor Road bridge) is in the order of 400-450 cfs and there is no historical information that this capacity was exceeded by a flood event in the last 80 years. It is therefore assumed that 400-450 cfs correspond to a 100-year event.
• The retention capacity behind the Park Loop Road dam / culvert is in the order of 650’000 m3. There is no historic record that the dam was overtopped or that it was close to happen in its nearly 80 years of existence. As a consequence, the 650’000 m3 correspond at least to the direct runoff volume of a (100)-200-year event and there is no runoff > 100 cfs for smaller events (as 100 cfs are the maximal capacity of the culvert before the dam is overtopped).
• Depending on the assumptions of the breach geometry, the peak of a flood wave caused by a dam break is roughly estimated to be 340 / 570 cfs at the Park Loop Road bridge.
In the actual situation these scenarios cause a maximum flow of 30 – 60 cfs into the flood plain. In the case of flood events during winter time a smaller flood combined with an ice jam at a critical cross section may however cause larger flows into the flood plain.
The expected / planned modification of the infrastructure in the upper part of the catchment is the replacement of the three culverts by bridges. Climate change will probably manifest itself in the form of significant modifications of rainfall patterns in fall and more frequent oscillations
of the temperature around 32° F in winter. Winter flood events with freezing and thawing cy- cles will become more frequent.
These modifications may cause an increase of peak flows at Cromwell Harbor Road bridge by 100 cfs. Due to the missing data to base the estimations on, these estimations and find- ings are however subject to a large uncertainty.
The higher frequency of thawing / freezing cycles during winter events accentuates the prob- ability of occurrence of winter flood / ice jam scenarios.
Recommendations based on these findings are:
1) Expansion and systematisation of data collection and detailed compilation and anal- ysis of all existing data. This includes:
• Compilation of all existing data from all sources.
• Continuous measurement of runoff at Cromwell and Kebo including the water
level immediately upstream of the Park Loop Road culvert.
• 1h rainfall data are essential to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the
flashy catchments on MDI.
• Detailed analysis of Otter Creek flood events (in particular the events of 2008
and 2009).
2) Elaboration of an integrated flood risk management concept for the whole catchment with all stakeholders. The concept will comprise:
• Protection goals derived from the values (emotional and monetary) associated to the private and public infrastructure, natural / cultural monuments, animals, persons...
• Maintenance and intervention procedures (written documents).
• Awareness creation amongst stakeholders.
• Structural measures (e.g. increasing the actual runoff capacity by the expected
increment of the flood peak for a 200 year event; optimizing the river geometry immediately downstream of Cromwell Harbor Road bridge; submersible corridor at the Cromwell Harbor Road bridge,...)
3) Other recommendations for adaptations in the catchment are:
• Increased resilience of Sieur de Monts park infrastructure to inundations by ob-
ject protection measures.
Decoupling of flood risk from wetland hydrology at the Park Loop Road culvert. By building a ramp (wooden structure or blocks) upstream of the Park Loop Road culvert the water level in the wetland can be managed independently from the elevation of the riverbed at the culvert / bridge.
• Bank protection at the golf course with bioengineering methods.
The intention of this report is to have a very short / non exhaustive look at the literature on rainwater harvesting and the geographical context of CAV, to document the experiences of CAV in the field of rainwater harvesting and to deduce some general recommendations based on the experiences of the CAV. The recommendations should help in transferring the experiences of CAV to other projects of VM in Central America and eventually in up-scaling the project.
Water harvesting techniques have been known for thousands of years particularly in India, China and the Middle East. In the second half of last century water harvesting faced a revival in the countries mentioned but to a minor degree also in Africa and Latin America. Consider- ing that 40% of the global land area is covered with dry lands and most of the rural poor live in this area it is however a fact that water harvesting is still far from it’s potential and still re- mains largely unknown, unacknowledged and unappreciated.
In Brazil the semiarid region covers an area of 970’000 km2. The project area of the CAV, the Alto Jequitinhonha, is part of this semi-arid region, close to 20’000 km2 in size and home to 270’000 inhabitants. Annual precipitation mainly ranges from 700 mm to 1200 mm and is concentrated between October and March. The topography of the Alto Jequitinhonha is characterized by high plains (chapadas) and river valleys (grotas). Chapadas are often cov- ered by agro industrial monocultures (eucalyptus) and small farmers live in the grotas close to springs and water bodies. The agro industrial plantations influence the hydrological condi- tions of the catchments they are located in.
CAV has its roots in the movement of small farmers. It aims at reducing the rural exodus by offering the small farmers an economic perspective. The pillars of its activities are water availability, sustainable agricultural production, marketing of agricultural products and the or- ganization of the farmers into associations. The associations of farmers should be able to voice the interests of the small farmers and become stakeholders respected by the mayor players as agroindustry and public administration at municipal, provincial and federal level. In the field of rainwater harvesting CAV has a lot of experience with the installation of rooftop water harvesting systems and since 2008 with managed aquifer recharge.
CAV distinguishes three types of installations, bacias, barraginhas and diques. Bacias are small, excavated ponds located in the headwaters of springs with the aim to infiltrate as much water as possible and to retain material eroded from roads. Barraginhas are located below the spring level and have a storage capacity between a few 100 m3 and a few 1000
Vivamos Mejor / CAV December 2014 page 7 of 60
m3. The purpose of barraginhas is to infiltrate the collected water, which should then result in a perennial subsurface flow towards springs and / or wells located downstream of the ponds. The water captured is also directly used for irrigation / agricultural production. Barraginhas are excavated and the material excavated is used to build the dam. Diques are small con- crete dams built on rocky underground. They are mainly located downstream of barraginhas collecting the water resurfacing below the barraginha.
The project planning of the CAV follows a sequence of steps consisting of a) the analysis of the context and boundary conditions, b) the definition of potential beneficiaries (by the com- munities) and c) site visit and decision on the location, type and size of installation to be real- ized. This decision is based on a number of criteria concerning topography, logistics and the willingness of the beneficiaries to participate in the project activities. Barraginhas and bacias are built by a dozer and the beneficiaries are expected to protect the vicinity from erosion and other adverse influences. To evaluate the overall performance of its activities (not in par- ticular its water related activities) the CAV started a monitoring programme, which has a closer look at the weekly income of 50 families who sell their agricultural products. The moni- toring programme started in 2014 and is supposed to run for at least 3-4 years. The mainte- nance of the installations often still depends on the input from CAV and documentation of project activities is under “construction”. There are a few forms and mapping the project ac- tivities with a GIS system is planned.
Based on these observations at CAV general recommendations were deduced:
In terms of technology the author recommends to optimize the compaction of the dams (bar- raginhas) by increasing the water content, to consider statics and potential sediment input when planning the diques and forming packages of measures, i.e. the installations per se and measures to protect the installations from erosion. The project planning procedure might follow a 5-step approach consisting of a) the context analysis and the decision on whether to launch project activities in a community b) a participatory problem and need assessment c) the catchment analysis and the intensive dialogue with beneficiaries d) the participatory elaboration of a water supply concept and e) the planning of the single installation with the beneficiaries. When planning the single installation all known rainwater harvesting and man- aged aquifer technologies should be considered, as the Brazilian context is particular in terms of space availability, and there might be much less space available in other countries. All measures concerning the protection of the installations from erosion should be imple- mented at the same time as the installations. As the installations aim at water availability they can be evaluated based on the criteria whether a) the water intended at for agricultural pro- duction is available and b) the installations are well maintained at the beginning of the rainy season. The level / quality of maintenance can be taken as an indicator for the degree of ownership of the installation and farmers should consider maintenance as an important is- sue.
The documentation of the installations should be based on GIS maps serving as visualisation and selling tool (towards donors and investors) and a small number of forms permitting to profit from the lessons learned and to disseminate these lessons within CAV.
Despite the macroeconomic stability Brazil has still a few hurdles to surmount on its way to a sustainable growth. The five main elements are a large informal sector, macroeco- nomic factors that hinder investment as very high interest rates, inappropriate regulations, poor public services including a weak public education system and a poor infrastructure
For Multinational Enterprises the huge internal market offers vast opportunities. On the other hand the aforementioned hurdles also influence the activities of the companies. They are consequently confronted with a large number of different agents with a variety of interactions and specific dynamic relations between the agents, what forms a complex system as defined by the St. Gall Management Model (Rüegg-Stürm 2005).
The research question addressed in the thesis emerges from the aforementioned context. It is the question how the subsidiaries of Swiss MNEs deal with the complexity of the Bra- zilian market. The question is answered by looking at mainly secondary data (newspaper articles, case studies) on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil through the lens of the complexity framework of Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). The authors propose to de- scribe complexity in a business environment by the complexity driver diversity, interde- pendence, ambiguity and fast flux. To cope with complexity they further propose to reduce the complexity by introducing common goals and behaviours, focus, decentralisation and standardisation. The authors specify the complexity drivers and complexity simplifiers for all business functions, processes, organizational and strategic aspects a company is con- fronted with.
The analysis shows that the way the companies perceive the Brazilian business environ- ment and their stakeholders can be characterized adequately by the four complexity driv- ers. There is a large number (multiplicity) of agents with a variety of interest and inten- tions. Their intentions and interests are often not fully understood and unknown (ambigu-
© PHW Hochschule Wirtschaft April2011 page 6 of 118
ous) and the market is highly dynamic (fast flux). The complexity framework does however not allow to adequately describe the very important role of authorities and the government in driving complexity as observed by the companies and the challenges resulting from the important shortage of qualified workforce.
The interactions of the companies with their environment and their stakeholder can be captured well by the four complexity simplifiers introduced by Nedophil, Steger, Amann (2011). There are common (corporate) goals and behaviours, focus on core activities and stakeholder,. standardisation of processes with a certain freedom of the subsidiaries to specifically react to the requirements of the local market (decentralisation). Imbedded in the overall tendency to reduce complexity a move towards embracing complexity can be observed as long as it results in additional added value and can be handled.
The analysis has further shown that analysing country markets and the experiences of subsidiaries of MNE’s operating in these countries in the light of complexity as proposed in this thesis might offer a new comprehensive alternative to the “how to do business in” guides. Further research might therefore extend on one hand the investigations started in the context of this thesis with a more comprehensive data set on the operation of Swiss MNEs in Brazil ideally consisting mainly of primary data. Another direction of research would be to test the complexity framework for other countries.
Infolge dieser Gefahrenlage wurde 1999 mit der Erarbeitung eines Schutzkonzeptes begonnen. In einer ersten konzeptuellen Phase wurden bis 2003 detaillierte Untersuchungen zu möglichen Murgangszenarien durchgeführt. Dabei wurden die Gefahrensituation und das Schadenpotenzial ermittelt und auf Grund der Schutzziele der Handlungsbedarf – inkl. Massnahmenplanung im Bereich Unterhalt, Raumplanung und bauliche Massnahmen – definiert. Die wichtigsten baulichen Massnahmen befinden sich zurzeit in der eingehenderen Ausarbeitung. Neben den baulichen Schutzmassnahmen stellt die Notfallplanung einen wichtigen Teil des Schutzkonzeptes dar. Diese soll den Ablauf der Interventionsmassnahmen im Ereignisfall so steuern, dass das Schutzkonzept optimal funktioniert.
Wichtiger Bestandteil eines Notfallkonzeptes ist eine den örtlichen Gegebenheiten angepasste Alarmierung. Das Alarmsystem beim Illgraben besteht aus den folgenden 4 Elementen:
1) Organisatorische Massnahmen in der Gemeinde: Aufklärung über Gefährdung, Erstellung von Alarmierungsabläufen und Massnahmenplanung im Ereignisfall.
2) System für die Detektion von Murgang- ereignissen und automatische Alarm- auslösung.
3) Systematische und standardisierte Beobachtung des Einzugsgebietes, mit Erstellung einer langfristigen Da- tenbank.
4) Verbesserung der lokalen Wetterprognose und ihre Umsetzung für die Ermittlung der Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeit.
Diese 4 Elemente werden im Artikel im Detail beschrieben
This work intends to add a step towards the solution of this problem. The overall goal consists in developing / adapting a methodology for the estimation of overland flow suited to the Swiss alpine and prealpine context. The methodology should further exclusively rely on widely available geographic information. It was decided in this respect to work with the geographic database GEOSTAT. GEOSTAT is operated by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (Bundesamt für Statistik) and covers the whole country. The highest spatial resolution of the maps is 1 hectare. For overland flow estimation the Curve Number method is used. The Curve Number method was developed by the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly known as Soil Conservation Service) and allows for the estimation of direct runoff for a given rainfall input based only on qualitative information on soil type and land use. The goal then consists in adapting the Curve Number method in order to allow for a correct reproduction of overland flow for all types of hydrological different reacting areas which can be differentiated based on information from the GEOSTAT maps.
This goal is addressed by reproducing hydrographs of annual flood events observed in four alpine and prealpine catchments by means of a spatially distributed Rainfall-Runoff model. The spatial resolution of the model corresponds to the spatial resolution of the information from the GEOSTAT maps (1ha). For each single grid cell, the overland flow is further calculated separately by the Curve Number equation. The simulations then allow for indications on the performance and the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation for single hydrological different reacting areas. These indications are however exposed to larger uncertainties. The simulated hydrograph is influenced by different hydrological areas which react similarly and different modules of the model (e.g. subsurface flow module). Therefore the single hydrological different reacting areas cannot be analysed independently. In order to reduce the uncertainty, the performance of the Curve Number equation was also analysed based on data from a number of small scale
6800$5<
rainfall experiments. These experiments are of interest in the context of the present study, as the runoff processes and the soil characteristics at the plot sites were observed and measured in detail. Consequently, the performance of the Curve Number equation can be investigated separately for single soil types. The results from the analysis at this plot scale show that the equation mainly performs well for rainfall plots in which Hortonian runoff processes dominate and which are located on Cambisols and Gleysols. The equation shows a lower performance for plots on soils such as Rendzina, Ranker and Podsol. In terms of reparameterisation, only preliminary indications are gained from the analysis mainly due to the limited number of experiments. For a number of plot sites the runoff behaviour is furthermore dominated by local structures such as macropores.
At basin scale the Rainfall-Runoff model in general and the Curve Number equation in particular show a satisfactory performance in reproducing the flood runoff observed in the prealpine catchments. In the alpine catchment considered a reproduction of the flood events was however not successful due to the large uncertainty of the spatial rainfall distribution and the influence of snow on the flood events. The simulations generally result in rough indications on the performance and the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation for a number of hydrological different reacting areas. For storm events characterised by rainfall peaks interrupted by periods of rainfall of low intensity, modification of the Curve Number method is further required and proposed. A comparison of the resulting parameterisation with event characteristics then shows that the relation of parameterisation and antecedent wetness conditions presented in the original Curve Number method are not valid in the alpine and prealpine context. The found Curve Number values further decline with increasing storm rainfall volume.
The indications on the parameterisation of the Curve Number equation are however exposed to larger uncertainties. The findings from the analysis at plot scale are partially helpful in reducing these uncertainties.
This study represents a first important step towards the modification of the Curve Number method to a method for the estimation of the overland flow in the Swiss alpine and prealpine environment. Further steps mainly consist in extending the analysis / adaptation of the Curve Number method to a large number of additional mesoscale catchments of the Swiss Plateau and the Prealps. When selecting the catchments, similar hydrological different reacting areas should be present in several catchments. This permits a more precise idea on the performance of the Curve Number equation for single hydrological different reacting areas. The simulations of flood events from additional catchments may also serve to refine the proposed modification of the Curve Number equation and gain insight into how the parameterisation relates with the antecedent wetness conditions.
Talks by richard kuntner