Papers by Hi and Welcome to my Website Mikael Eriksson
Background The international community is in need of peaceful ways to react to international thre... more Background The international community is in need of peaceful ways to react to international threats against peace and security. There must be effective actions "between words and wars." The use of economic sanctions is one of the instruments available to the UN Security Council that has been used under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Recent experiences of comprehensive sanctions have not been encouraging, however. The search has continued for more refined approaches and targeted sanctions is one such option. Targeted sanctions are directed against significant national decision-makers (political leaders and key supporters of a particular regimes) and resources that are essential for their rule.
Abstract This study analyzes the security dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa in a 5-10 ... more Abstract This study analyzes the security dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa in a 5-10 years' perspective. The study departs from the geopolitical developments that followed in the region as a result of the so-called Arab Spring, but also analyses the contemporary security dynamics, including the role of non-Arab states such as Iran, Turkey and Israel. In order to analyze the security developments in the region, the study analyzes both conventional factors such as shifts in power-balances between states, intrastate military structures and the role of "failing" states, as well as non-conventional security factors such as democracy, the role of multilateral institutions, impacts of the colonial heritage, economic interdependence and domestic variables. The study discusses how conventional and non-conventional factors could interact and shape the security environment in the MENA region in the next decade. This study is limited to the Levant, the Gulf region and North Africa. In addition to the Arab states it includes Iran, Turkey and Israel. The key conclusion of this study is that the region is heading towards increased instability. Steps towards democratization that followed with the so-called Arab Spring has been replaced by regional tensions and internal conflicts, which in some cases even resulted in civil war. This trend of instability is likely to continue in years to come. This in turn will have direct consequences for both Sweden and the EU.
Sammanfattning Denna studie analyserar den samtida säkerhetspolitiska dynamiken i Mellanöstern och Nordafrika (MENA) och utmaningar som regionen står inför de närmsta 5-10 åren. Inledningsvis diskuteras den säkerhetspolitiska utvecklingen i regionen mellan 2011-2014, med fokus på processer under den s.k. arabiska våren. Förutom de arabiska revolternas effekter på den säkerhetspolitiska dynamiken analyseras i korthet samtida säkerhetspolitiska utvecklings- och konfliktlinjer i icke-arabiska stater som Iran, Turkiet och Israel. Studien beskriver också översiktligt pågående väpnade konflikter i MENA såväl som regionala och globala stormakters intressen och agerande gentemot regionen. För att redogöra för de säkerhetspolitiska utvecklingarna i regionen på längre sikt identifierar studien både konventionella faktorer så som krig, externa aktörers intressen, maktförskjutningar mellan stater, inomstatliga militära strukturer och sammanfallande stater, samt icke-konventionella säkerhetsfaktorer så som demokratiutveckling, betydelsen av multilaterala institutioner, det koloniala arvet, mellanstatlig handel samt inrikespolitiska och ekonomiska faktorer. Studien analyserar hur dessa variabler kan komma att utvecklas och påverka inomstatlig stabilitet och regional säkerhet på sikt. Geografiskt begränsar sig studien till Levanten, Gulfregionen och Nordafrika. Utöver arabstaterna inkluderar studien också Iran, Turkiet och Israel. Studiens huvudbudskap är att regionen sannolikt går mot ökad säkerhetspolitisk instabilitet. Stegen mot demokratisering som togs i samband med den arabiska våren har generellt ersatts av regionala spänningar och inrikespolitiska konflikter samt i vissa fall även resulterat i inbördeskrig. Under det studerade tidsperspektivet kommer MENA sannolikt att stå inför betydande säkerhetspolitiska utmaningar, vilket kommer få konsekvenser för både EU och Sverige.
Article in International Affairs Journal
Sustainability, environment, climate change and security with examples from the Middle East and Asia
This study explores the development of Libya’s security situation following the so-called Arab sp... more This study explores the development of Libya’s security situation following the so-called Arab spring in 2011 up to September 2015. It provides an overview of Libya’s main warring parties and the struggles they are engaged in. The analysis covers both domestic groups and the main external states. The study finds that the security dynamics are changing quickly and that Libya has many political hurdles and security challenges to overcome before a more durable situation of stability can be achieved. Two findings are clear: first, Libya’s conflict needs to be seen in the context of the wider regional power struggle in which foreign actors (states and groups alike) have interests in shaping Libya’s future; and, second, that Libya cannot deal with its security challenges alone without comprehensive outside political and military support by the United Nations and other regional organisations.
Key words: Libya, Arab spring, Qaddafi, North Africa, Jihadism, armed movements, civil war, Arab League, African Union, security policy, Middle East, EUNAVFOR MED operation SOPHIA, Africa, African security.
The role of EU and US sanctions against Russia over Ukraine has been the subject of much popular ... more The role of EU and US sanctions against Russia over Ukraine has been the subject of much popular debate, although unfortunately a debate that does not lend itself to easy conclusions. Questions commonly posed are those concerning the intended means of sanctions and how these should be viewed in light of the turmoil currently unfolding in Ukraine. For some, the answer is obvious -sanctions over the Ukrainian crisis are simply symbolic. However, other commentators take the view that they constitute a solid policy response to an alarming geopolitical situation.
Denna studie analyserar den säkerhetspolitiska situationen i Sahel. Studien konstaterar att den s... more Denna studie analyserar den säkerhetspolitiska situationen i Sahel. Studien konstaterar att den säkerhetspolitiska händelseutvecklingen i Sahel under våren 2012 kommit att bli mycket turbulent.
FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of ... more FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden's largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors.
FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of ... more FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden's largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors.
FOI är en huvudsakligen uppdragsfinansierad myndighet under Försvarsdepartementet. Kärnverksamhet... more FOI är en huvudsakligen uppdragsfinansierad myndighet under Försvarsdepartementet. Kärnverksamheten är forskning, metod-och teknikutveckling till nytta för försvar och säkerhet. Organisationen har cirka 1000 anställda varav ungefär 800 är forskare. Detta gör organisationen till Sveriges största forskningsinstitut. FOI ger kunderna tillgång till ledande expertis inom ett stort antal tillämpningsområden såsom säkerhetspolitiska studier och analyser inom försvar och säkerhet, bedömning av olika typer av hot, system för ledning och hantering av kriser, skydd mot och hantering av farliga ämnen, IT-säkerhet och nya sensorers möjligheter.
FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of ... more FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden's largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors.
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Papers by Hi and Welcome to my Website Mikael Eriksson
Sammanfattning Denna studie analyserar den samtida säkerhetspolitiska dynamiken i Mellanöstern och Nordafrika (MENA) och utmaningar som regionen står inför de närmsta 5-10 åren. Inledningsvis diskuteras den säkerhetspolitiska utvecklingen i regionen mellan 2011-2014, med fokus på processer under den s.k. arabiska våren. Förutom de arabiska revolternas effekter på den säkerhetspolitiska dynamiken analyseras i korthet samtida säkerhetspolitiska utvecklings- och konfliktlinjer i icke-arabiska stater som Iran, Turkiet och Israel. Studien beskriver också översiktligt pågående väpnade konflikter i MENA såväl som regionala och globala stormakters intressen och agerande gentemot regionen. För att redogöra för de säkerhetspolitiska utvecklingarna i regionen på längre sikt identifierar studien både konventionella faktorer så som krig, externa aktörers intressen, maktförskjutningar mellan stater, inomstatliga militära strukturer och sammanfallande stater, samt icke-konventionella säkerhetsfaktorer så som demokratiutveckling, betydelsen av multilaterala institutioner, det koloniala arvet, mellanstatlig handel samt inrikespolitiska och ekonomiska faktorer. Studien analyserar hur dessa variabler kan komma att utvecklas och påverka inomstatlig stabilitet och regional säkerhet på sikt. Geografiskt begränsar sig studien till Levanten, Gulfregionen och Nordafrika. Utöver arabstaterna inkluderar studien också Iran, Turkiet och Israel. Studiens huvudbudskap är att regionen sannolikt går mot ökad säkerhetspolitisk instabilitet. Stegen mot demokratisering som togs i samband med den arabiska våren har generellt ersatts av regionala spänningar och inrikespolitiska konflikter samt i vissa fall även resulterat i inbördeskrig. Under det studerade tidsperspektivet kommer MENA sannolikt att stå inför betydande säkerhetspolitiska utmaningar, vilket kommer få konsekvenser för både EU och Sverige.
Key words: Libya, Arab spring, Qaddafi, North Africa, Jihadism, armed movements, civil war, Arab League, African Union, security policy, Middle East, EUNAVFOR MED operation SOPHIA, Africa, African security.