Paul Timms

Personal Transport Emissions within London: Exploring Policy Scenarios and Carbon Reductions Up to 2050

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 2011

This research explored the possibility of achieving significant carbon reductions from personal l... more This research explored the possibility of achieving significant carbon reductions from personal land-based transport using London as a case study. A profile of carbon emissions from personal land-based transport modes was derived using Great Britain National Travel Survey (NTS) data and a range of carbon emissions factors. A carbon calculator provided carbon consumption per trip. NTS survey data were grossed up to national level using Census of Population data. A baseline of carbon emissions, based on equal per capita consumption, was projected to 2050 using estimates of future population. Four future scenarios were developed and tested using this data. These were: (a) based on the London Mayor's Climate Change Action Plan; (b) a technology focussed scenario; (c) a personal carbon trading scenario; and (d) a radical walking and cycling scenario. Results suggest that the latter two scenarios have the potential to achieve emissions reductions in excess of 80%, while scenarios (a) and (b) are somewhat weaker, though still achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions compared to business as usual.

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Visions for a walking and cycling focussed urban transport system

by Niamh Moore, Andrew Miles, Paul Timms, David Watling, and Marcus Ormerod

Journal of Transport Geography, 2011

This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking in urban areas to the year ... more This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking in urban areas to the year 2030. Each of these visions is based on the UK and represents a substantial change to the current situation and to what might be expected to happen if things continue as normal over the next 20 years. Each of the visions presents a view of a society where walking (and cycling) are considerably more important than is currently the case and where these modes cater for a much higher proportion of urban transport needs than now. The visions show a picture of an urban environment where provision for walking (and cycling) has been substantially enhanced and where dependence on motor vehicles has been reduced (in two of the visions to very low levels).

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Pathways to Achieving Radically Different Urban Walking and Cycling Futures in the UK by 2030

by David Watling and Paul Timms

Modelling traffic assignment with driver information under day-to-day variability

by Paul Timms and David Watling

Integrating BRT Systems with Rickshaws in Developing Cities to Promote Energy Efficient Travel

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2012

Rickshaws are 'green vehicles' and might be able to act as feeder services to public transport if... more Rickshaws are 'green vehicles' and might be able to act as feeder services to public transport if planned properly. Many cities have implemented BRT systems, while others are planning to do so. Several modern BRT systems (i.e. Bogota, Guangzhou) have modal integration with bicycles; however, there is no BRT system in the world yet which demonstrates integration with rickshaws. With the case study of Dhaka City, the research explores: if rickshaws can act as a feeder service to BRT systems; what type of BRT station design would best support such an arrangement; whether fare integration between rickshaws and BRT systems is possible. A total of 11 focus group discussions (FGDs) of different stakeholders and 25 interviews of the key informants were conducted. The outcome of research could be helpful for other cities having rickshaws that have (or are planning for) BRT systems.

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Modeling Bus Lane Priorities in a Motorcycle Environment Using SATURN

Transportation Research Record, 2007

Bus lanes and median bus ways such as those in Curitiba, Brazil, and Bogotá, Colombia, are attrac... more Bus lanes and median bus ways such as those in Curitiba, Brazil, and Bogotá, Colombia, are attracting a great deal of attention worldwide. For many Asian developing cities, there is an interest in how successfully bus lanes and bus rapid transit will function, given that traffic conditions in such cities typically are different from those found in Latin America. This

“Ideal” decision-making processes for transport planning: A comparison between Europe and South East Asia

by Paul Timms and Günter Emberger

Transport Policy, 2008

Abstract: In the recently finished European Union (EU)-funded research project entitled Procedure... more

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Visions for a walking and cycling focussed urban transport system

by David Watling, Paul Timms, and Marcus Ormerod

Journal of Transport Geography, 2011

This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking in urban areas to the year ... more This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking in urban areas to the year 2030. Each of these visions is based on the UK and represents a substantial change to the current situation and to what might be expected to happen if things continue as normal over the next 20 years. Each of the visions presents a view of a society where walking (and cycling) are considerably more important than is currently the case and where these modes cater for a much higher proportion of urban transport needs than now. The visions show a picture of an urban environment where provision for walking (and cycling) has been substantially enhanced and where dependence on motor vehicles has been reduced (in two of the visions to very low levels).

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Modelling requirements for local transport plans: An assessment of English experience

Transport Policy, 2006

The aim of the paper is to provide a number of recommendations for use of transport and land use ... more The aim of the paper is to provide a number of recommendations for use of transport and land use planning models in the formulation of local transport plans. It is based on a study of Local Transport Plans (LTPs) in England. LTPs are required by central government (Department for Transport) as part of its process of allocating funds to local

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Personal Transport Emissions within London: Exploring Policy Scenarios and Carbon Reductions Up to 2050

by Paul Timms and Helen Harwatt

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 2011

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Dynamic Bayesian belief network to model the development of walking and cycling schemes

by David Watling and Paul Timms

This paper aims to describe a model which represents the formulation of decision making processes... more This paper aims to describe a model which represents the formulation of decision making processes (over a number of years) affecting the step-changes of walking and cycling (WaC) schemes. These processes, can be seen as being driven by a number of causal factors, many of which are associated with the attitudes of a variety of actors, in terms of both determining whether any scheme will be implemented and, if it is implemented, the extent to which it is used. The outputs of the model are pathways as to how the future might unfold (in terms of a number of iterative time steps) with respect to specific pedestrian and cyclist schemes. The transitions of the decision making processes are formulated using a qualitative simulation method, which describes the step-changes of the WaC scheme development in an iterative and interactive manner. In the paper a dynamic Bayesian belief network theory is adopted in a way that each factor will collectively contribute to the transitions so that the influence between and within factors on the dynamic decision making process is taken into account.

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The specification of sustainable urban transport strategies

International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 1999

Transport strategies have been developed for nine European cities to achieve optimum performance ... more Transport strategies have been developed for nine European cities to achieve optimum performance in terms of a range of objective functions. The functions selected represent economic efficiency, sustainability and a combination of these. The strategies have been based on combinations of a standard set of policy instruments, including public transport infrastructure, frequency and fares, road capacity increases, low cost road

Imagineering mobility: constructing utopias for future urban transport

by David Watling and Paul Timms

Environment and Planning A, 2014

ABSTRACT Over the past fifty years a growing body of work has sought to address the problem of pl... more ABSTRACT Over the past fifty years a growing body of work has sought to address the problem of planning for transportation in the long-term future through scenario building. Such thinking has generally been restricted to issues concerned with environmental sustainability and the &#39;images&#39; of future transport so created are usually weak in terms of their social sustainability content, either treating social issues superficially, or ignoring them entirely, or even creating images that are socially undesirable. At the same time, there has generally been a marked decrease over the past twenty years in socially oriented utopian thinking. As a direct result of these two factors, hardly any consideration has been given recently to imagining socially sustainable views of transport in a future utopia. The key underlying aim of this paper is to provide some background thinking about how this lack might be addressed. To do so, it examines concepts about utopia in terms of their form, content, and function, and considers possible reasons for the recent decline in utopian thinking and their &#39;replacement&#39; by a type of futures-thinking that is referred to as dystopian avoidance. It then examines transport characteristics of utopian thinking in urban planning in the 20th century and considers various &#39;antinomies of transport&#39; with respect to future utopias. Based upon the insights gained, the paper comments on two existing &#39;practical&#39; sets of transport-related scenarios in terms of their utopian and dystopian characteristics. One particular result is that the utopian aspects of these scenario sets in terms of their social content are relatively weak, in line with the hypothesised recent general decline in (social) utopian thinking. Various conclusions are made which emphasise the usefulness of utopian thinking in transport planning, particularly in participatory approaches. It is suggested that three elements of the transport system should be separately &#39;utopianised&#39;: the mobility of people and goods; physical aspects that facilitate or inhibit such mobility; and the system of governance with respect to formulating and implementing transport policy.

Optimal transport strategies for European cities

Transportation, 2000

... sector involvement are specified, and optimal strategies with private sector operation of pub... more

VTI AND KFB RESEARCHER DAYS. THEME VII: TRAFFIC FLOW MODELLING

by Paul Timms and David Watling

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